I also want to remind folks that human psychology plays a role in all this. We remember exceptional events, and we tend to forget average, unexceptional events.

There is a fancy science-sounding name for this phenomenon, but it has been over 35 years since I took that psych class, so I have forgotten it.

I have played many games with Mr Complainer over the years, SFB and otherwise. We have rolled lots of handfuls of d6s. I got in the habit of saying “average roll” when we had plain, average rolls, to remind him that if he wants to complain about a bad roll, he has to remember that there are lots of times that he rolled average, and even a few times he rolled above average.

-DC

By Mike Erickson (Mike_Erickson) on Friday, October 17, 2025 - 01:53 pm: Edit

I believe the two psychological things at play here are the peak-end rule and confirmation bias.

--Mike

By Peter Bakija (Bakija) on Friday, October 17, 2025 - 02:13 pm: Edit

Dave wrote:
>>I don’t know how far back in time this goes. I’m sure I’ve had more than 299 rolls in SFBOL over the years.>>

My log data posted above in this thread indicates a list of 1400+ rolls that average out to 3.406, and in the individual rolls, I actually have rolled marginally more 1, 2, and 3's than 4, 5, 6's.

No wonder I keep winning all those things :-)

By Ted Fay (Catwhoeatsphoto) on Friday, October 17, 2025 - 02:28 pm: Edit

As I posited above, the clients PRNG is pretty good - good enough, really (particularly since we all use it).

Switching to a QMRNG is more about putting doubters at ease. You don't get more random than a QMRNG, so it's intrinsically "fair."

In my opinion, if it's free and easy and no latency to use a QMRNG - then it's no skin off my back. 3.50000000000000000000000 on a D6 over an infinite number of rolls is so close to 3.505 that I don't really care. However, if it makes some folks feel better to know that the clients RNG is unutterably random - then I'm glad it's keeping some player's happy.

By Ted Fay (Catwhoeatsphoto) on Friday, October 17, 2025 - 02:31 pm: Edit

P.S. To all doubters: a QMRNG is *going* to result in strings of "1"s and "6's" on 1D6. Truly random results do that. Heck rolling 4 6's on 4D6 is one chance in 1,296. That sounds like it "never" happens - but really it's going to be reasonably common in absolute terms given the number of dice that get rolled.

YMMV randomly. Kind of by definition...

By Justin Royter (Metaldog) on Saturday, October 18, 2025 - 10:50 am: Edit

JUST TO BE CLEAR:

I am well aware of ALL of the stated issues... perception vs reality, randomness itself, and the code that goes into "random" number generation and its imperfections, I am also aware of streaks and bad luck, etc.

The point I am making here is that I strongly believe and also have considerable evidence to make a reasonable conclusion that in particular random.org is generating an avg closer to 4, everyday, all the time, and that is terrible.

I am going to try the internal roller and I am hoping for a new alternative that might possibly be more accurate and something I can have more faith in.

The other algo rollers are broken, crazy lag, no faith.

I am just looking to have faith that the code behind the roller I am using is generating as close to true avg as possible, that I can have confidence the number generated is as close to a true result as is possible with all this amazing tech we have in 2025.

streaks and extreme outcomes are not my issue, its the code behind the outcome that is in question.

By Seth Shimansky (Kingzila) on Saturday, October 18, 2025 - 03:30 pm: Edit

TONIGHT 10:45 PM EST

2.2 kingzilla WBS (11) VS Spartan ISC

By Seth Shimansky (Kingzila) on Sunday, October 19, 2025 - 10:06 am: Edit

2.2 kingzilla WBS (11) VS Spartan ISC

4 turns done – with the ISC very deep in the bottom left corner with last speed of 4. Range 10 to the Shark both facing each other with the Shark last speed of 14. Turn 5 ISC has PPD & 1 G ready. ISC has the # 5 down and the #1 ½ down with 2 F torps shot off with 1 repaired. The Shark has beaten up shields with the 2 and 3 down and 1 warp and a drone rack shot off. The only option for ISC turn 5 is speed zero or reverse a few hexes with PPD fire and an enveloper. The Shark more then likely will prepare the crew for death as it tries for the assault. Turn one the shark missed with 3 out 4 OL range 8 and it’s been an uphill battle since. Death is near – you can smell it in space.

By Peter Bakija (Bakija) on Thursday, October 23, 2025 - 07:42 pm: Edit

2.1 bakija (GRN) over crashandburn (WAX HHbb)

Sometimes a game is over in 27 minutes.

T1: GRN plots 17 till 25, 24 till end, holds standard torps, has a couple of weasels, has some reinforcement on the #1. WAX moves 31 all turn, holds 2 weasels, has a little reinforcement on the #4. GRN just goes forward, slipping in a bit. WAX goes forward, slipping out a bit, and then turns in. At R14, WAX near the GRN #1/#6 spine but facing C (GRN facing A), GRN launches 2 standard torps. WAX keeps coming in, slipping towards GRN. WAX gets to R7 from GRN #6 shield, and has a turn and run escape from the plasma, so he fires 4xP1, OL direct fire HB, std direct fire HB. Both HBs hit, phasers roll well, GRN takes 26 to the #6, no reinforcement (which is all on the #1). WAX turns off to direction B, but is still crossing the GRN's bow.

GRN counts hexes, sees that if he speeds up to 31 now, he'll get R5 centerline at some point, so uses some batteries to speed up to 31 for the remainder of the turn, in a few impulses, gets R5 centerlined on the WAX #3 and pulls the trigger with 2xS and 2xF bolts (S's are fake on the map), 6xP1. Lucks out, all 4 bolts hit (4, 4, 2, 2). Phasers roll low (3, 4, 5, 5, 6, 6) for 17, doing 67 damage. WAX has 2 battery reinforcement (having used 3 to OL the HB), takes 41 in, losing 7 power, HB, drone, a few phasers, a lot of fluff. Gamely, John plays on. Next impulse, WAX slips A, GRN turns F, getting a P1 and a wing P3s into the hole at R6, rolling 1, 2 for 5 more in, hitting another drone rack and the second HB, so the WAX surrenders.

With 5 drone racks and a HB, the WAX still had a fighting chance. But down to 4 drones and no HB, not as much.

My dice were good where they needed to be (2, 2, 4, 4 on the bolts and 1, 2 on the R6 phaser follow up snipe), but overall, perfectly average, if even a little high (3.66 for my fire).

I wasn't even planning on bolting this game; last time we did this, John made sure I couldn't get R5 on T1, so I was planning on getting around drones and trying to launch 100 plasma in a corner. But, well, then he got a little too close, and the R5 centerline bolt shot showed up, and if anyone was gonna take that, I guess it was me :-)

By Carl-Magnus Carlsson (Hardcore) on Friday, October 24, 2025 - 10:42 am: Edit

TKE vs TKR tomorrow will not take 27 minutes.

By Gregory S Flusche (Vandar) on Friday, October 24, 2025 - 10:51 am: Edit

yes sooner. Just run up to point blank range. 90 points of plasma a 100 pts of plasma plus phasers. see who blows up.

By Justin Royter (Metaldog) on Friday, October 24, 2025 - 02:19 pm: Edit

What time is the tke vs kr fight happening please?

By Carl-Magnus Carlsson (Hardcore) on Friday, October 24, 2025 - 04:36 pm: Edit

8AM PST

By Peter Bakija (Bakija) on Saturday, October 25, 2025 - 07:15 am: Edit

Updates on the Shark V ISC fight?

No rush, just curious.

By Seth Shimansky (Kingzila) on Saturday, October 25, 2025 - 09:58 am: Edit

no update yet - 99% the ISC will advance

By Peter Bakija (Bakija) on Saturday, October 25, 2025 - 10:41 am: Edit

I believe in you, Seth!

By Jack Taylor (Jtaylor) on Saturday, October 25, 2025 - 10:58 am: Edit

99.999%

By Paul Franz (Andromedan) on Saturday, October 25, 2025 - 09:20 pm: Edit

Any date scheduled for that game?

By Carl-Magnus Carlsson (Hardcore) on Monday, October 27, 2025 - 03:34 am: Edit

Daniel and I have played this weekend and got to the end of T:6.
TKE status. One real R just launched, two Fs coming online next turn. Pseudo torps A and C has been used. Shields; 30-20-13-30-15-01 7 armor.

TKR status One F held. Status of the S tubes is unknown, but Plasma B has never been launched.
Shields: 17-30-20-24-24-0 Lost phasers #7 & 8, Plasma C, one warp and some fluff.

By Carl-Magnus Carlsson (Hardcore) on Monday, October 27, 2025 - 06:45 am: Edit

I forgot; Daniel has used up his Het bonus. That was when he used his pseudo R to make me stop following him.

By Peter Bakija (Bakija) on Monday, October 27, 2025 - 07:32 am: Edit

What caused internals in the plasma fight? Torp hits, phasers, or bolts?

By Daniel Bitseff (Cadet_Stimpy) on Monday, October 27, 2025 - 01:47 pm: Edit

Most of the damage to the TKE has come from TKR phasers, and an F that hit a rear for 15. The TKR damage has come from several smaller torp hits, and one F hit for 17 & a 17 pt phaser shot on the same shield. No one has bolted.

By Carl-Magnus Carlsson (Hardcore) on Monday, October 27, 2025 - 03:06 pm: Edit

I had an opportunity to bolt on the weakened #5 at range five, but would have needed to hit with two of three bolts to do any internals at all. It has 40 box thick skin in any direction. Impressive.

By Peter Bakija (Bakija) on Monday, October 27, 2025 - 05:11 pm: Edit

Thanks!

By Carl-Magnus Carlsson (Hardcore) on Saturday, November 01, 2025 - 03:28 pm: Edit

Stimpy vs HC
Turn 12 coming up. Daniel Ed'ed last turn and will have an F+R ready this turn. Two shuttles left.

I have just launched 50pts that forced Daniel to Emer Decel. I have the center of the board and two shuttles left. I have repaired my plasma and two waist phasers.

Will continue tomorrow at5 8 PST