But 1304 was a sure thing for you. I thought your chances of crippling 902 were below 50% unless you were willing to self kill.

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Thursday, July 31, 2008 - 12:48 pm: Edit

The Kzinti fleet continues to shrink under Paul's merciless pounding. Over the most recent full turn (both player turns), the losses are:

BT, CC, BC, MEC, 2x2CVE, EFF -- 9 ships total.

Probably the Kzinti won't build anything or work on their shipyard this turn as they need to spend what is left of their economy on repairs. They currently have a grand total of 7 uncrippled ships and need 94EP to repair the others. This is 3 turns of their economy!

I just did an inventory of the remaining Kzinti ships. It didn't take long. They have:

DN, BT, VT, 9CC, 7BC, 7CVS, 4CVL, CVE, 10MEC, 9EFF, 5CL/DD, 2FF, 6SF. A not-so-grand total of 63 ships, down from the 89 they started with.

Fortunately for the Kzinti, there is only one more Coalition turn before Fed entry. And if the Klingons want to strike the Feds hard on turn 7, that will limit what they can do against the Kzinti on turn 6. So relief may be just around the corner!

By Robert Padilla (Zargan) on Thursday, July 31, 2008 - 01:50 pm: Edit

William,

With the Kzinti fleet that shot up, don't count on Fed entry to help them out a whole lot. Without the Kzinti navy in a decent fighting condition, the Feds small 4th Fleet (assuming the Limited War scenario), is not going to do much other than make the Marquis SB a little more painful for the Coaltion. And if the Coalition does invade T7 (which seems unlikley from the carnage they've taken so far), the Kzinti still only have the 4th Fleet to look to for help, as any new builds and the Home Fleet are going to be needed to defend Federation territory.

I think the Kzinti's best case scenario here is that the Coalition do not attack the Feds, thereby allowing the Feds to send all of their new construction to help out for T8 and maybe T9. After that, the Feds are going to have to bring those ships back home to defend the dual Klingon/Romulan threat.

By Kosta Michalopoulos (Kosmic) on Thursday, July 31, 2008 - 01:57 pm: Edit

Relief and, more importantly, MONEY! Make sure the Feds send the Kzinti 20 EPs a turn ASAP! Use the offmap area if necessary, even with the delay.

In anticipation of this, the Feds probably should not spend money building the 3rd and 4th CVA groups on turns 7(?) and 9(?) (IIRC). They need to establish a cash reserve to support the Kzinti with steady cash for 6 turns (at least), while at the same time fending off the coalition invasion. Though wealthy, even the Feds can't afford everything, and not building the expensive CVA groups is a good way to save cash during the dark days of Turns 7-12. This strategy will likely provide a better return on investment in the long run.

Also, I would recommend spending the 15 EPs on the Kzinti shipyard immediately. Once completed, having the shipyard generates 6 FFFs a turn, or the equivalent of 12 EPs. Thus each turn delay in completing the new shipyard costs you 12 EPs. Yes, not being able to repair 15 EPs worth of ships each turn sucks (thats 7.5BCs or 10 CMs after all!), but in the long run you are better off building the shipyard in the minimum amount of time than fielding one extra battle line a turn that won't make that big a difference in the long term.

By Kosta Michalopoulos (Kosmic) on Thursday, July 31, 2008 - 02:09 pm: Edit

Correction: the 3rd and 4th Fed CVA groups are built during during 6 and 8 (and every even turn thereafter). I guess you can't do anything about the Turn 6 builds, but Turns 8 and 10 can be altered accordingly.

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Thursday, July 31, 2008 - 03:16 pm: Edit

Kosta

Fed CVA - Although I am the enemy, the Feds are stuffed full of cash, limited war or not - so I would build every ship they can - and the first couple of turns are less 90 Ep's for everything (offhand 44 for turn 7 and 89 for turn 8), so easily leaves 20 Ep's for the Kzinti - and a stack left.

Shipyard - well, thats the killer decision - 2 turns so far without a Shipyard, and 15 Ep's spent on it (William skipped it last turn!). Hard decision to make - the Kzinti can't sit there off map, but equally, any counter attacks they make delay their shipyard, as they repair
those additional cripples.

And with their Economy hurting even more...

All good news for me in the short term!

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Thursday, July 31, 2008 - 03:26 pm: Edit

Repairs > builds

I anticipate resuming work on the shipyard on turn 10 or so. My only mistake was wasting 15EP on it on turn 3.

The short term results are worth it.

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Thursday, July 31, 2008 - 05:54 pm: Edit

Hydran front is well underway. For once Paul is not pushing marginal attacks. This is resulting in a lot of non-battles as I decline approach and he retreats. When I have accepted approach, he has generally retreated after that round.

I assume this is because he doesn't want to cripple a bunch of Klingons right before he goes after the Feds. However I expect he will make some exceptions to this policy in the remaining Hydran battles.

By Kosta Michalopoulos (Kosmic) on Thursday, July 31, 2008 - 07:22 pm: Edit

Paul:

In every game I've ever played, the Federation economy is reduced to less than 100 EPs (and sometimes as low as 80) between Turns 11 and 15 or so, as the Klingon and Romulan invasions reach their maximum extent. In order for the Feds to be able to build the full NUMBER of ships on their build schedule while repairing cripples, building defenses and propping up the Kzinti to the tune of 20 EPs a turn, they MUST set aside ALL of the surplus generated during Turns 7 to 9, and even then some more is needed. The most efficent way to do that without sacrificing ship numbers is to replace the CVA with a CVS on Turns 8 and 10 (and perhaps 12). Yes, you lose 9 fighter factors and a fair bit of ship density each time, but you gain 26 EPs (8 for the difference in the cost of the ships, plus 18 for the 9 fewer fighter factors - I've assumed the use of 6 FFFs). That's the equivalent of 8.67 frigates - OK, 4.33 if overbuilt!


William:

If you delay working on the shipyard until Turn 10, it wont be functioning until Turn 15 or so. That's 12 turns without production and the loss of 72 FFFs - 36 of which you could have otherwise built. Those 36 lost fighter factors represent an opportunity cost of 72 EPs.

Furthermore, those 36 fighter factors can absorb damage that would cost you a minimum of 7.2 EPs A TURN to repair. (Calculated as follows: 36 FFFs * 0.2 EPs per foregone damage factor, assuming the minimum avearge cost per damage factor that is represented by a 5-point frigate costing 1 EP to repair.) This assumes a loss rate of only once per turn - but it could be up to twice that, if you remain forward deployed. A one time cost of 72 EPs, plus an ongoing cost of 7.2 EPs a turn for say 20 turns = 216 EPs. To the Kzintis, that's a heck of a lot.

In addition, you are permanently foregoing the building of 6-8 ships a turn during these 6 lost turns. That's 36-48 ships that the Coalition has effectively "destroyed" without taking any damage in return.

I think part of the issue may be your assessment of the prospects for the Kzinti economy. The Kzinti start with 20 EPs a turn off map and should gain another 2 EPs a turn on Turns 2, 4, 6, 8 and 10, assuming average survey roles. With the 20 EPs the Feds ship them each turn starting with Turn 7, they should have an economy of around 46-50 EPs a turn through this period. Assuming the 2 FRDs and the SB are off-map, your repair capacity is 36 points or 18 EPs a turn during this period. Spending 15 EPs per turn on the shipyard should still leave 13-17 EPs for production of the single frigate at the SB, conversions, drone bombardment, etc. So they are not as badly off as you may fear. Spend the money on the shipyard, and DEMAND the Feds pay the bill!

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Thursday, July 31, 2008 - 09:09 pm: Edit

Kosta --

What you are describing is passive play. If the Kzinti don't put any pressure on the Coalition, and the Feds don't build CVAs, I don't doubt that Paul could knock the Feds down to 100EP or even less.

By Kosta Michalopoulos (Kosmic) on Thursday, July 31, 2008 - 10:09 pm: Edit

Perhaps, but with 18 EPs of repair a turn, the Kzinti will be limited in what they can do until Turn 7 (and Fed funding) in any event. Why not spend 11 EPs on repair on each of Turns 3-7, while puting 15 into the new shipyard? Yes, that will reduce the Kzinti pressure on the Coalition somewhat, but I can't see the 7 EPs making a big enough difference to Kzinti offensive abilities to offset the long term damage casued by foregoing building the shipyard until Turn 15.

Another question, what was the Kzint treasury like on Turn 3? I usually have a nice surplus that early on, due to the limited build schedule. Even putting 4 PDUs a turn on the capital will leave extra cash lying around. I've wondered about converting everything I could into a CV at this time, but I always preserved cash for the dry period that would soon befall the Kzinti.

Then again, I'll admit my strategy has evolved by playing the same two opponents over the last 20+ years, so other strategies may work better. Any of the masters out there have an opinion on what to do with the Kzinti economy and shipyard reconstruction strategy?

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Thursday, July 31, 2008 - 10:54 pm: Edit

Kosta -- the benefits to me so far:

Coalition has sent 4 reserves worth of builds and repairs to the Kzinti front every turn, even after the fall of Kzintai. As a result, the Hydrans are in pretty good shape. They have not had to buy any PDUs and for the time being, this should continue to be unnecessary as the Klingons need to hit the Feds. This turn they will lose 1 minor planet conquered and get some planets devestated at Hydrax. But to accomplish this, the Klingons had to release Old Colony Squadron, so even that cloud has a silver lining.

Repairs have been straining the Coalition budgets. They currently have about 120 crips. The Kzinti are responsible for the vast majority of these.

The hoped-for later benefit: Prevent the collapse of the Fed economy. It is clear that Paul is planning a big strike against the Feds on turn 7, so the Kzinti and Hydrans will want to cause maximum trouble from turn 6 onwards. We'll have to wait and see how this turns out.

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Friday, August 01, 2008 - 04:02 am: Edit

Indeed indeed indeed.

A Turn 7 attack on the Fed's was the plan - although capturing 617 might be worth delaying it until Turn 8, 9 or 10 (the biggest gain to the Feds is on turn 8 and incrementally it gets smaller).

Only time will tell.

Combats so far.

Dice continue to be nasty to me - even the 50/50's still come up in favour of the Hydrans. Only through sensible usuage of hulls has reduced my cripples (at a BATS battle which should died have two rounds, I failed, and to avoid taking a fruther cripple, I only could use DC 7+ rated ships, as I was expecting to have 3 damage to take).

Losses so far
Hydrans 2 x HN killed, HN crippled
Coalition FF killed (already crippled), D5, F5 and E4 crippled.

416 - William - offhand I think I took a D6V cripple here (for some reason I haven't updated my map), Damage was 13 to me and 11 to you (I missed doing any damage by 1 point) I think?

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Friday, August 01, 2008 - 07:25 am: Edit

In 416 you crippled the F5S. I don't remember your damage total but it wasn't enough to do anything.

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Friday, August 01, 2008 - 09:45 am: Edit

William

Thanks - I'll cripple the F5S.

On Invading the Feds - could have worded it better.

The Federation gain alot from a delayed invasion - although the difference between turn 7 and turn 8 is the largest (namely Home Fleet comes into play fully) - after then, the benefits reduce (although they do benefit!)

By Robert Padilla (Zargan) on Friday, August 01, 2008 - 09:59 am: Edit

Actually Paul, the Limited War rules greatly limit the Feds. If they are not attacked, they get to move ships around sure, but they do not get to build any real defenses up. They can send the Kzinti's EPs (but I think they can not use the Home Fleet tugs), but that Coalition can easily block that and make those tugs take the long way around (delaying the EPs by 2 turns). So if the Klingons do not attack, the first Federation aid can reach the Kzinti by T9, and on T10, you can have a massive Klingon/Romulan fleet waiting to smash their econ to tatters.

Or you can invade on T7, but don't make the mistake of making too weak of an attack just to bag an easy SB or two. If you can't take at least 40 EPs out of the Fed economy the first turn of the invasion, you're generally better off waiting.

Either way, I personally don't think taking 617 is worth waiting to invade the Feds for, as you already have the Kzinti capital in hand.

By Kosta Michalopoulos (Kosmic) on Friday, August 01, 2008 - 11:53 am: Edit

I found that delaying the attack on the Feds to Turn 8 or 9 in order to take out the Hydrans can be beneficial, as they do not get all that much built in the interim. But its the economic gains they make over those two turns that are critcal to their survival.

By Robert Padilla (Zargan) on Friday, August 01, 2008 - 02:05 pm: Edit

Delaying on the Feds can have several benefits. If your fleet is shot up from capital Assaults and SB attacks, you can take a turn or two and repair the fleet, and masss your 200+ ships on the Federation border for a cruching attack. It also gives the Coalition time to do some housecleaning. Meaning they can use the time to bottle up the Kzinti/Hydran if they've been causing trouble, allowing more focus on the Feds. The Coalition can also use that time to take out any lingering hardpoints the Kzinti/Hydrans may have outside of the capitals.

By Kosta Michalopoulos (Kosmic) on Friday, August 01, 2008 - 02:12 pm: Edit

Yeah, that's why my preferred approach is a Turn 3 assault on the Kzinti capital, a Turn 5 or 6 assault on the Hydran capital and a Turn 8 or 9 invasion of the Feds. The free strategic move of repaired ships allows the Coalition to shift from one front to the next effortlessly. Just remember to keep building repair capacity at every opportunity throughout this period.

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Friday, August 01, 2008 - 10:05 pm: Edit

The Battle of Hydrax is well underway. All three minor planets are devestated. Dead ships:

Hydrans: CR, special supply tug [which was out of fighters but did have supplies]
Klingons: D6M

Crips are 8 Hydrans, 25 Klingons, and 1 Lyran.

The Klingons are currently going after the side majors. The outcome there is unclear at present.

No chance of the hex falling this turn.

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Saturday, August 02, 2008 - 04:17 am: Edit

Well, thats the only unique non-replacable ship in the whole game dead (the Hydran Supply Tug).

Had no real value now (Hydran expedition), but if 617 falls at some point, it would have helped the Hydrans escape. Plus killing a Tug is always good.

Klingons also spent 1 Command Point at the Hydrax System.

For once, the dice have been good for the Coalition! Averages are VBIR 3.111, Coalition 4.444 and Hydrans 3.555 (9 rounds of combat).

Couple of more rounds of combat on the Hydran front still to do, which will wrap up Coalition turn 5.

By Michael Lui (Michaellui) on Saturday, August 02, 2008 - 11:21 am: Edit

It may have been out of fighters, but it could have been refilled. How did they kill it?

By Matthew G. Smith (Mattsmith) on Saturday, August 02, 2008 - 01:43 pm: Edit

It's not refillable in 2K only, which is what they're playing.

So, really, it was very little more than any other tug.

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Saturday, August 02, 2008 - 02:46 pm: Edit

The Hydrans (and Coalition) are running short of ships, and it was on the line (better to lose the Supply Tug then a Battle Tug!), so only took 24 (down to 14) to kill it with the Mauler. William did enough to kill the Mauler, and so I thought I might as well use it!

Although we are only playing 2K, the fact it can be used as a mobile supply point worried the heck out of me - aslo, if 617 falls, it could keep a reasonable fleet fully effective (and William did get to use the 'free' 27 fighters points to good effect).

Current round - both fleets elect to engage closer than the smaller side wanted (Battle 1 BIR was 1 & 4, Battle to was 4 & 1) - dice was (VBIR, Coal, All) 5 6 6 and 6 6 6!

I expect one Major to be pretty trashed, the other will still have some defences.

William has done a good job of keeping his Mobile Fleet effective - so the Coalition still have a tough fight in front of them!

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Thursday, August 07, 2008 - 05:49 pm: Edit

The turn is over. Paul managed to devestate everything in 617 except for Hydrax Major. Dead in the battle were Hydran Supply Tug, LN, and CR vs. Klingon D6M and D7C. Crips were 40-odd for the Coalition vs. 9 Hydran.

The Coalition fleet in Hydran space is in disarray. A bunch of Lyrans are out of supply, as are the Klingons who just took 519. A lot of ships are crippled. The challenge for Hydran turn 5 will be to take as much advantage as possible of this!