I remember hearing somewhere that one's attitude can actually influence luck - but I have no source and so this might be total crap. /me shrugs.

However, I *DO* know that I've gotten so pissed off at dice that I've had to take a breather of a few days from gaming before - so I feel Paul's pain.

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Saturday, March 20, 2010 - 11:15 am: Edit

I have suggested a different dice roller....

After something like 3000 rolls, I don't think Shadowdice likes me!

I would estimate William's average roll is about .4 more than mine, over the first 15 turns of the game. (I don't have data for all turns, although at times the difference has been massive - turn 14 was closer to 1 difference, I am sure I will have forgotten about the odd roll
or two which was good for me).

Following on from this thought process, I think the uneven dice has had a massive effect on this game (I would guesstimate I would have suffered about 6% less damage, as it's not the 'just 5% damage' here or there, it's the effect of one person doing say 25%, and the other 20% - the person doing 25% is actually doing 20% more damage...).

I have been saying this for about 11 turns, but I think I am really due abit of constant outrolling now!

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Sunday, April 04, 2010 - 03:34 am: Edit

Well, combat has ended.

First - the dice improved, but not enough to counter the good Alliance rolls at the start of the turn.

Averages on Alliance turn 15 was (I think I got all the combat dice rolls)
VBIR 3.43
Alliance 3.61
Coalition 3.23

So still significantly higher average rolls for the Alliance

Lots of dead and crippled on both sides - about the main thing was SB 4015 dying (it already had 7 SIDS) and so the combat was brief.

Key dice remained in the Alliance favour (for example, there was a 1/6 chance a Fed Carrier group could have died in persuit 2610 - did I get it - of course not!) and the Romulan CVE dying due to +2 BIR and a 6 still bugs me - but what can I do?

A few Coalition ships will be temporarily cut off from supply!

Fingers crossed, the dice Averages will be heavily in the Coalition favour for the next several turns.

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Sunday, April 04, 2010 - 08:49 pm: Edit

As Paul says, A15 combat is over. I am working on my retroes.

With 5 Coalition reserves on the Hydran front, the Feds had an opportunity to attack in the center. They mainly went after Coalition fleets, with the objective of killing ships. Their fleet is still not big enough to pick up all vulnerable province raiders, but they did get all of the ones in the North. They also forced a long battle at minor planet 2610, which is the only Coalition forward point in the Western Federation. The Coalition doubly reserved the planet, so the Feds didn't have much chance of taking it. However, they did go 5 rounds and trade lots of crips, which should be to their advantage due to their faster repair cycle.

At the end of the Alliance turn, the Northern Federation is basically in Alliance hands. All Coalition forces there are cut off. (Most will have no problem re-establishing supply on the Coalition turn.)

The central Federation is mostly Fed-held. The South is mostly in Coalition hands, with the notable exception of the still very much alive-and-kicking 6th Fleet SB. In fact, that starbase was the jumping-off point for operations in Romulan space, including the destruction of the already badly-damaged (7 SIDS) SB formerly located at 4015.

Moving on to the lesser Alliance races:

Facing five reserves, the Hydrans played a very conservative turn and are now set up to defend against the expected Coalition offensive. They have roughly 40 ships at Hydrax (including two full reserves), plus single battle forces at minor planet 416, at the still-intact first fleet SB, and at their MB at 1218. They also have a 7-ship fleet isolated at 412 (which did not move so as to avoid battle this turn), about 10 crips at repair sites, and another 10 ships or so performing duties like province raiding and province defense. Whenever the Hydrans have to go over to defense, the small size of their fleet always leads to the appearance that they are vulnerable. But their high quality does help.

Due to the enormous Coalition forces on the Kzinti front, the Kzinti took a hit-and-run approach to the turn. They attacked the Coalition at several weak points, while staying away from strongly-defended Kzintai. They have now retroed all 38 of their ships off map.

The Gorns are continuing to slug it out with the Romulans. This turn, they were able to destroy three more border BATS. Two central ones remain. They also retook their planet at 4705 (though possibly not for long), and they currently hold Romulan planet 4112, which is the only Coalition planet presently in Alliance hands. The Romulans are still getting the better of the economic exchange, as their forces are taking more EPs away from the Gorns than vice versa.

By Peter Bonfanti (Otherbonfanti) on Thursday, April 15, 2010 - 05:39 pm: Edit

Paul, could you post some data about the Coalition Economy? I'm enjoying reading this thread and seeing how different it is from the game I'm playing with my brother, which is only a little bit behind, time-wise (CT13).

Thanks.

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Sunday, April 18, 2010 - 05:13 pm: Edit

Peter

No problem (rounded to closest whole Ep)

Turn 15 was -
Lyran 135
Klingon 166
Romulan 123

Turn 16 (1st turn at 75%....)
Lyran 99
Klingon 136
Romulan 92

The Lyrans lost several Ep's, as the Hydran attacked several empty provinces (sneaked up the side) and the Romulans have been put under signficant pressure.

The Klingons are not too bad - couple of planets devastated and a province or two lost. They also normally claim the bulk of captured space!

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Sunday, April 18, 2010 - 05:19 pm: Edit

Coalition Turn 16

Summary of builds
Only the Lyrans built there full line. Both the Klingons and Romulans underbuilt.

The only advantage is that a fair proportion of the cripples are not back in service - although the Klingons still have a fair number!

Operation movement is ongoing - but the main points are.

Every single Hydran planet is under attack - and pretty much every province will be held by the Coalition or disrupted. (I had about a 15 ship equivalent advantage over the Hydrans.).

The Hydrans will hopefuly suffer this time!

Kzinti space - The Patricach in 1401 is happy - no Pretender forces remained in known space - as they all fled back to the Barony. Order will be restored where possible. (Note, 1401 will end the turn with 10 Lyran PDU's on the capital!)

Federation space. Attacks currently are spread mainly around the North West and South East.

Gorn Space - Gdhar III is under attack! A strong Romulan force has proceeded through outer Gorn space to attach the heart of the evil Gorn Empire.

Romulan space - Mopping up operations have began to hopefully remove Alliance presense from 4112.

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Monday, April 19, 2010 - 08:01 pm: Edit

C16 Op move is done. The Hydrans are going to take a beating. In addition to getting their capital redevastated, they are probably going to lose all 3 of their on-map planets. They have had a great run, with 2 of those 3 planets held every single turn until now, and the third one held most of that time. But now it is coming to an end.

But the growth in the power of the Feds and Gorns is palpable. In earlier turns, the Coalition would typically attack along much of the front, or all of it. But now they are concentrating their forces to gain localized superiority at a few points. Overall, the Feds and Gorns expect to lose only slightly more ships than the Coalition forces they are fighting this turn. They will also lose two already-devastated minor planets. It is unclear whether the Coalition forces in one of the Gorn capital hexes will be able to devastate the minor there or not.

The Kzinti are presently hiding off-map, after sallying forth in force during Alliance turn 15.

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Saturday, April 24, 2010 - 12:38 pm: Edit

Guess who had a 88% chance of success, and failed?

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Monday, May 03, 2010 - 04:39 pm: Edit

Well, Coalition turn 16 combat is over.

The dice was more average (and I didn't record them) - with the occasional roll for both sides being good.

Summary of turn.

Gorn Front - is there a war going on (very little - the raid on the capital was just that a raid - and I ran after the approach was declined)?

Romulan Front - Planet 4112 was recaptured by the Romulans

Federation Front - very little actual combat, but Feds lost 2 minor planets (already devastated) and 2106 lost both it's PDU's.

Kzinti Front. The rightful Patriach of Kzinti is pleased to confirm all planets are within his control and the inposters remain cowering in the Barony. (Note - The Patriachs capital will have 10 PDU's now!)

Klingon Front - The Hydrans have been expelled from Kzinti space.

Lyran Front - Hydran forces have been battered and are slowly retreating

Hydran Front. For once, William gave me a chance to do some major damage. The dice didn't help and 416 was held by him (has lost both PDU's though), but 718 (still had all 4 PDU's) was captured.

The MB in 1218 was only crippled (more on that later) due to a 12% chance of failure.

617 - 2 Planets was devatsated and 2 more re-devastated. Only the capital and 1 minor planet are undevastated.

The major effect of the Coalition offensive is that Hydran space has been cut in 3.

Hydrax - Income I think will only be 16 Ep's.

Partial grids exist in the Old Colonies and SB 1017.

Hydran losses were heavy (including 2 LB's) - and they lost 10 ships this turn!

For the first time since probably turn 4, the Hydrans are under alot of pressure and hopefully - it will teach them a lesson for invading Coalition space!

By Ted Fay (Catwhoeatsphoto) on Monday, May 03, 2010 - 05:00 pm: Edit

---

Quote:

Guess who had a 88% chance of success, and failed?

---

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Tuesday, May 04, 2010 - 03:08 am: Edit

Indeed!

Failed to kill a set up MB....when I had a mauler available!

By Andrew Bruno (Admeeral) on Tuesday, May 04, 2010 - 10:32 am: Edit

doh!

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Thursday, May 06, 2010 - 11:41 pm: Edit

My comments on the situation:

Hydran front --

The loss of 718 was entirely preventable. I have typically put a fleet there when it was threatened. This time, I thought my forces at Hydrax were enough that it wasn't necessary. This was incorrect.

The 416 battle was much closer than I thought. Going in, I was at worst even odds to hold the planet, and may even have been favored. The main reason is that HRs are incredibly good in a close battle, as they can absorb 10 damage each, and still have 4 compot after that.

The overall situation is interesting. Hydrax is still only defended by its original PDUs. For a long time, it has looked completely safe, but now it is actually looking vulnerable.

He just sent two more reserves to the Hydran front, including the B10, two more maulers, a battle tug, a carrier tug, and a DN. This is on top of the five reserves he sent last turn.

But the Hydrans have some things in their favor. First of all, the only Coalition repair capacity within 10 hexes of Hydrax is 2FRD. (Lyrantan and Klinshai are both 10 hexes away, so there is plenty of repair capacity at that distance). Anyway, the point is that most crips the Coalition takes on the Hydran front will not be quickly repaired.

On top of that, the Hydrans have about 200 fighters. And although they don't have a lot of PDUs, they do have plenty of CCs and CAs to put up monster lines over the PDUs they do have and over the Hydrax starbase. So taking Hydrax will involve taking a lot of crips for him.

Two turns ago, the Hydrans were overbuilding frigates to pressure the Coalition. Even with exhaustion coming, it looked unlikely they would have budgetary problems soon. But with the massive reinforcements he has sent that way over the last two turns, the Hydrans now have to choose between building PDUs and utilizing their free fighter factors. I am opting to build ships to utilize the free fighters. I am frankly unsure about the wisdom of this. But my intuition is that even without PDU builds, taking Hydrax for him would involve allowing himself to get massively pushed back on other fronts.

Kzinti front --
The Kzinti are currently sitting offmap, contemplating various raiding possibilities. I'm pretty sure what the right course of action is, but I'll let that reveal itself during movement.

Fed front --
The Feds are looking very strong. They pushed the Coalition back quite a bit last turn. And with the continued Coalition buildup on the Hydran front, this trend is likely to continue, and may even accelerate.

Ever since turn 7, they have concentrated on building up the size (quantity-wise) of their fleet. For the past several turns, this has entailed building all the FFs they could, all the NCLs their remaining funds would allow, the one carrier group their free fighters could get them, and skipping the expensive builds such as CC, DN, and CVA.

Their fleet size has now reached the point where they can start to think about quality a little more. This turn they are building a CVN group and a CC, skipping a bunch of NCLs, and building 15 FF hulls, as those are just too good of a deal to pass up.

Gorn front --
The Gorns are in even better shape than the Feds. Almost all Romulan forces have been pushed out of Gorn space. Furthermore, the Gorn fleet now far exceeds both the quantity and quality of the Romulans it is facing, so Gorn gains are likely to continue. Even better, the Gorn fleet is probably now about 2/3 as strong as the entire Romulan fleet -- and, when the Fed forces on that front are added in, the Alliance comes out significantly ahead.

This turn, their income will be above their basic income, as survey and conquests exceed losses to Romulan raiders.

Speaking of the Romulans, Fed assaults from the 6th Fleet SB have destroyed enough hardpoints that Romulan BATS 3817 is the only hardpoint which connects Romulus to the Tholian border regions. So if the Feds and Gorns can destroy that BATS and recapture some Fed and Neutral planets which are still in Romulan hands, the Romulan supply grid will be cut in two.

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Friday, May 07, 2010 - 10:49 am: Edit

Alas, for the Romulans, the Coalition pressure on the Hydrans means more pressure on them.

Hopefully the butchers bill for any Alliance attacks though will make future attackers less strong.

(Yes, it would be nice if the dice started to return the favours given to the Alliance!)

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Friday, May 07, 2010 - 04:41 pm: Edit

Kzinti Economy Turn 16

Total from Previous Turn 0.45
Capital
Onmap majors
Onmap minors
Onmap Provinces

Other (specify)
Offmap 31

Survey Roll 11
Survey Total 164
Total Income 31
Exhausted Income 23.25
Grand Total 23.7


Econ and Repair Phase Expenditures

Repairs in Barony 9.5

TgT+VP 8
EFF 3.5
FF>SF 1

Total E+R expenditures 22

Left at end of Econ Phase 1.7

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Friday, May 07, 2010 - 04:43 pm: Edit

Hydran Economy 16

Total from Previous Turn 26.3
Capital 14
Onmap majors 0
Onmap minors 3
Onmap Provinces 2
Offmap 0

Survey Roll 13
Survey Total 151
Total Income 19
Exhausted Income 14.25
Grand Total 40.55


Econ and Repair Phase Expenditures

Repair:
Hydrax 12.5
Offmap
1st

Build:
LB 9
RN 6
2HR 10

Total E+R expenditures 37.5

Left at end of Econ Phase 3.05

Offmap grid:
Offmap income: 29
Onmap income: 1
Total income: 30
Exhausted income: 22.5
Repairs: 1
Build CU: 2.5

Remaining: 19

1st SB grid:
income: 4
exhausted income: 3
scrap e4a: 1

total money: 4
repair CU 1
Full supply for all ships at the mb plus PAL, VT, RN at the SB 3

remaining: 0

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Friday, May 07, 2010 - 04:44 pm: Edit

Federation economy Turn 16

Total from previous turn -20.8
Capital 47
Onmap majors 20
Onmap minors 9
Onmap provinces 50
Off-Map base 6
Survey 20
Scrap E4
NZ 0.8

Survey Roll 20
Survey Total 255
Total Income 152.8
Grand Total 132

Econ and Repair phase expenditures:

Builds
4CVN 53
NCL 5
13FF 39
FFS 4
CC 9

Repairs
Offmap 6
2nd 2.5
2707 2.5
earth 2
6th 7.5

Total Expenditures 130.5
Left at end of Economic Phase: 1.5

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Friday, May 07, 2010 - 04:46 pm: Edit

Gorn Economy Turn 16

From Previous Turn 1.2
Capital 24
On-Map base 51
Off-Map base 12
Survey 4
Lost to Coalition -7
Conquered from Coalition
NZ (including planets) 6
Other

Survey Roll 5
Survey Total 40

Total income 90
Total money 91.2

Repair/Econ expenditures:


4806 5
4206 6.5
4503 4
5203 2.5
4008 2
4006 2
geydahr 4.5

Build:
DN 18
3HD 15
2SC, DD, BD 15

Convert:
Gdhar 1 3HV (FFF used) 4
GeyDhar CL>BC 3

Total spent 81.5

Remaining 9.7

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Sunday, May 09, 2010 - 02:22 pm: Edit

Breaking news . . .

We have unconfirmed reports that Federation forces have invaded the Klingon Empire!

The target we are aware of is BATS 1807, in the province of Kestonia. However, due to the incomplete nature of the picture currently available to us, we expect this information to change as events unfold. Stay tuned.

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Sunday, May 09, 2010 - 03:30 pm: Edit

Well, I haven't seen any Federation ships invading Klingon Space.

Commmander Kang
Sector Commander 1807.
Stardate 3rd March 176

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Sunday, May 09, 2010 - 04:42 pm: Edit

Sir

Large 'blob' on long range scanners...

....ohh sugar!

Commander Kang
Sector Commander 1807
Stardate 3th March 176

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Friday, May 14, 2010 - 08:09 pm: Edit

On turns 5-6, when the Feds were about to come under attack, the Hydrans decided the best thing they could do to help was destroy Klingon FRDs, and bagged a bunch of them.

Now, the shoe is on the other foot. The Hydrans are under heavy pressure. The Feds are trying to blow up 2FRD to help. The Hydrans are also trying to blow up 2FRD and stop an MB setup. However the success of this latter action is problematic.

On the Romulan front, North Fleet SB is under attack by a Gorn fleet consisting of 20 generally very strong ships. Its fate is unclear.

The Kzinti are raiding Kzintai. They won't retake it this turn. But they should be able to destroy some PDUs.

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Saturday, May 15, 2010 - 01:41 pm: Edit

Well, one of the most important battles on Alliance turn 16 has started badly for the.....Coalition.

Had a higher compot than the Hydrans at 1013 - and they outrolled me by 1, and it was a percentage break difference.

Just to rub salt into the wound, on two other battles, where I outrolled William by 1, I failed get a higher percentage.

And to really make the turn go downhill, the one battle where William had no fighters, we both both rolled a 1 AND William got the exact damage to kill an Escort.

I just hope at the two other major battles this turn, I really get some good dice - I need it!

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Monday, May 17, 2010 - 07:49 am: Edit

My sanity is near breaking point at this game.

The dice are a wisper from me resigning the game. I am having so little luck, it's amazing.

Current averages of dice after 15 battle rolls are 3.33 for the Alliance, and 2.86 for the Coalition.

Far worse (to me though) is that the 3 times I rolled one higher on the dice, I caused no more % damage - and the 3 times William rolled 1 higher, it caused 5% more damage.

So far William has caused 35% more damage (and its +35% to William at big/Key Battles, and we are even over smaller battles).

It's destroying the game for me - when defending SB's or key locations, I am doing vastly lower damage then the attackers - and this is happening constantly.

Nothing William can do (not his fault) - but I am swearing when the results of the dice come through.

Enjoyment level zero.

The game will continue, when my temper and nerves can stand the dice rolls again.