you can't say "i should get the expected value, it's the expected value duh", and i do think a lot of people use "under average" as the trigger for complaint- because all of us kids in lake woebegone are above average dontchaknow.

but that doesn't mean there isn't a "should", and it doesn't mean calculating average *with some appropriate margin for error* isn't essential and unavoidable in planning. human nature (even in people whose jobs require knowing better!) is to substantially overestimate the safety of their margins, but that's execution error not any sort of flaw in the paradigm.

there is no way to explain the lack of appeal of lottery tickets without recourse to something fundamentally identical to "should", the way the original poster used it.

By Michael Parker (Protagoras) on Monday, April 18, 2011 - 08:29 pm: Edit

I cheated and went to Wiki for this definition, but its a good one!

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Quote:

In probability theory, the expected value (or expectation, or mathematical expectation, or mean, or the first moment) of a random variable is the weighted average of all possible values that this random variable can take on. The weights used in computing this average correspond to the probabilities in case of a discrete random variable, or densities in case of a continuous random variable. From a rigorous theoretical standpoint, the expected value is the integral of the random variable with respect to its probability measure.

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By Paul Howard (Raven) on Tuesday, July 05, 2011 - 07:23 am: Edit

The Q&A on RDU/Devasation hasn't been answered yet.

I'll check to see if any battles can be resolved, where the 2310(?) battle will not effect them!

By jason murdoch (Jmurdoch) on Wednesday, July 06, 2011 - 01:44 pm: Edit

The two real laws of probability
The perversity of the universe tends towards a maximum
Lady luck has no memory

By Richard B. Eitzen (Rbeitzen) on Wednesday, July 06, 2011 - 04:23 pm: Edit

The first is not a real law.

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Monday, July 18, 2011 - 03:59 pm: Edit

Combats have re-started.....and the dice gods continue their dislke of the Coalition

For example, a 2/3rds chance of killing a Alliance vessel failed, and in the same battle, a 1/3rd chance of the Alliance killing a Coalition vessel was succesful.

Another 2 ship differential (i.e. should have been C 0 v A -1, which became C -1 v A 0).

Aaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!

What do I have to do for fair dice?

By Ted Fay (Catwhoeatsphoto) on Monday, July 18, 2011 - 05:15 pm: Edit

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Quote:

What do I have to do for fair dice?

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By Chris Upson (Misanthropope) on Tuesday, July 19, 2011 - 02:06 am: Edit

"fair" doesn't mean that 2/3 = 1 and 1/3 = 0.

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Tuesday, July 19, 2011 - 02:15 am: Edit

Chris

But does 2/3 = 0 and 1/3 = 1 (and generally all the time it's that way) seem unfair?

If you ran a casino - and the same number came up everytime (with a winner on it) - although it's possible - you wouldn't accept the random chance of 36 coming up 20 times in a row!

Probability would dictate what is happening to me (and Paul E in his game) is extremely unusual!

Ted

Tried that

By jason murdoch (Jmurdoch) on Tuesday, July 19, 2011 - 02:18 pm: Edit

Richard
Blame Larry Niven for the wording of the first 'law'. Probably the second one as well. It has been decades since I read Ringworld which is where I think the quotes come from.

Paul
Have two boxes with lids. Put a die in each. Shake box. pick box. In online games opponent does this and you pick A or B. Box is opened revealing die.
Of course in your case the good result quantum tunnels to the unopened box.

Or seriously use the PBM roll charts from an ancient nexus. I may have a copy in my commanders SFB or someone else may still have them kicking around gathering dust

By Michael Parker (Protagoras) on Tuesday, July 19, 2011 - 06:20 pm: Edit

Also in all seriousness.

Take a die and toss it 100 times recording the results. Add those results together, If the sum is not between 340-360 declare the die "Unfair" and repeat until you find one that passes your test.

I just guessed on 340-360 you might want to look up confidence intervals on the internet and figure out what a true 95% confidence interval on 100 tosses of a fair 6 sider would be.

In role-playing games, folks having dice "with a whammy" is kind of cool.. in roll-playing games like FnE having one person using a die that is consistently high or low is just... well if I expressed my true Opinion Jean would have to send me one of those emails detailing proper conduct on these forums!

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Wednesday, July 20, 2011 - 10:06 pm: Edit

Hey, Paul's die is fine. It rolls a 6 for shock all the time!

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Saturday, August 06, 2011 - 12:11 pm: Edit

I am this "-"close from conceding the game - I am not longer enjoying it.

The dice just are not 'even'.

The last two rolls -

1 v 5 (not relevant, although I had a slim chance to live)

1 v 6 (massively relevant, Kzinti only had 6 ships including a CV+MEC group in the battle v a B10+mauler force). 25% would have allowed me to cripple the Carrier Tug (I got 20%) or maul cripple the 2CV group.

I am just not killing enemy ships when I should be.

I think my sanity can take 3 more poor rounds of rolls.

By Ted Fay (Catwhoeatsphoto) on Saturday, August 06, 2011 - 06:58 pm: Edit

Paul Howard. I feel your pain.

BTW: I haven't forgotten your game. Hopefuly get to it tonight or tomorrow.

By Paul Edwards (Pablomatic) on Thursday, August 11, 2011 - 07:54 pm: Edit

Paul Howard,

I respectfully urge you to hang in there till the bitter end and let the dice do their worst.

In my own case, I don't want to rob my opponent of a fantastic once-in-a-lifetime game with the dice favoring him (I'm exaggerating, it's not THAT bad), and because it is proper to play the game, come what may, for the sake of being a good opponent. It is hard, but I know in my heart that you and I both must find a way to enjoy the game even while getting insulted by the dice. I'm pretty sure that's the only path to salvation in our situation.

Surely, fighting against such dice can only make you a better player in general; should you ever end up in a game with even, or God-forbid above average dice you will presumably be a more fearsome opponent. You've been trained in the school of hard knocks, not sitting at some pansy Alliance impregnable SB behind your fighters rolling sixes at your Coalition opponent.

If the Coalition have bad dice, that certainly would be in keeping with the official history and true to the original series as well--the Klingons and Romulans always get the bad luck.

On the other hand, I am just back from a two week vacation to Barcelona, Monaco, Florence, Rome, Istanbul, Athens, Venice, etc, so the glass is definitely half full for me.

By Andrew Bruno (Admeeral) on Friday, August 12, 2011 - 04:30 am: Edit

Pablo-
Nice!

Raven-
yeah bud, hang in there. I've been watching this game from the beginning and would miss it if you concede. Plus, you and William are getting all of the cool toys to play with!

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Friday, August 12, 2011 - 08:47 am: Edit

Paul E
I know what your saying - but it's so soul destroying watching 1 good plan after another falling apart - purely due to the dice. And after something like 3 years of that - the enjoyment factor isn't really there anymore.

The weird things is, that I still think I have an excellent chance of winning. The constant drain on ships though is slowly pulling that away though (this turn I should be +2, but I am down 3 I think - so a net 5 ship swing against me!).

Andrew - We are only playing 2K rules - so PF's is all that we have to come!

By Paul Edwards (Pablomatic) on Friday, August 12, 2011 - 09:22 am: Edit

Paul H,

Whatever you decide you have my respect for going that far with those dice. No X ships works to the Coalition advantage I think.

By jason murdoch (Jmurdoch) on Friday, August 12, 2011 - 04:10 pm: Edit

Release all the barking mad generals from the Klingon equivalent of Broadmoor and try some way out there tactics.

Note:
The joke is that British Field grade officers spend their life within a ten mile radius:
They go to school at Wellington College. Train at Sandhurst. Go into action and then spend the rest of their lives locked up at Broadmoor Mental Hospital for the Criminally Insane.

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Sunday, September 04, 2011 - 02:02 pm: Edit

Well, the longest battle for a while (started in April!) finally ended.....

in a Draw!

Federation kept 2106.... but the planet was devastated.

Feds lost a DE and NCL. Coaliton lost a D6. Both sides took a pile of cripples.

The dice continued initially with my bad luck - but final 2 rounds went my way.

If I had wanted the planet - it would have been mine! Alas, I somehow forgot to make a Lyran Tug in 1509 a Supply Tug - and the Lyrans would have therefore been OOS.

So on balance - I acheived my objective and ran!

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Saturday, October 01, 2011 - 12:36 pm: Edit

Back from holiday (booohhh!) - so game will continue shortly (hurrah!!!)

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Friday, October 14, 2011 - 07:43 am: Edit

So far, as afew of the smaller battles have been done.

Damage so far amounts to

Coalition Dead - D6M, F5 (was already crippled)
Coalition Crippled - 2 x KE

Alliance Dead - Kz-CC, Fed-FF
Alliance Crippled - Fed-FFE, Fed-FF

To tell the truth, the dice have been fairer - although the Alliance remains good on getting it's 50/50 rolls to kill good ships (D6M for example - 30% was needed and they got it on BIR 5).

Several major combats remain - I am slowly getting back up to speed.

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Thursday, October 20, 2011 - 04:01 am: Edit

Something has gone terribly wrong with the dice roller.

The Coalition have actually killed an Alliance ship in Single Combat!

I didn't think that was possible or allowed!!!

By Ted Fay (Catwhoeatsphoto) on Thursday, October 20, 2011 - 09:51 am: Edit

Don't get you hopes up, Paul; I'm sure it was a fluke.

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Saturday, October 22, 2011 - 10:43 am: Edit

Well, dice have returned to normal.

Another key battle - and I have been outrolled in the first two rounds. (Outrolled by just 1 aswell - and both times sufficent for +5% damage).

Overall, Coalition turn 20 is moving back towards 'Alliance win' on the dice, from neutral.