Archive through March 07, 2012
Star Fleet Universe Discussion Board: Federation & Empire: F&E INPUT:
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Across the Pond:
Archive through March 07, 2012
A20 has started. Alliance onslaught indeed -- much of the Kzinti fleet has moved to Kzintai -- and the rest has yet to move!
I'll post the economy later. Interestingly, the Gorns are collecting close to 100EP but are still skipping builds due to their enormous repair expenses.
William-
Considering your philosophy of skipping 'major ship yard' construction in favor of repairing the early heavy back log of the Kzin crippled fleet-
would you have done anything differently, and 'why'?
How do you feel about your position now? Do you still feel you made the right decisions? Were you truly given a second life because of Paul's 'bad dice'? If you can recap, and all dice were even, at T15 do you think you would still have a chance? What did you do that really gave the Coalition fits? Mistakes?
Paul-
Sort of the same questions. Do you think it was all dice that beat you? Are you confident moving forward here? What tactics do you plan to take with you in future contests? What 'insane' or easily overlooked 'mundane' tactics did you use that made you feel good about your position by (say) T15? T20?
***
I do remember the dice being truly gruesome at times. But also, (before reading this entire after action report again) I seem to remember you guys both sticking to the guns of your strategic philosophies. Your reflections now would be interesting.
It has been very enjoyable following your progress! Thanks for providing comentary to a great game!!
Cheers! 
Bruno
I don't regret skipping builds in favor of repairs. "Builds" definitely includes shipyard construction here. In that regard, my only regret would be that I did pay the 15EP on one early turn -- I think it was the first turn after Kzintai fell -- and was squeezed for EPs later, and unable to perform some badly needed repairs. I should have been able to look ahead and see that this would happen.
About the dice -- it is true that Paul had terrible dice on certain early turns. Lately, they have felt relatively even.
About the position now, here is how I look at it:
Reasons the Alliance should be ahead:
* skipping builds in favor of repairs
* good dice on early turns
* Coalition mistake leading to brief Alliance recapture of Kzintai and killing all PDUs. BUT this mistake was less important than the original early capture of Kzintai.
Reasons the Coalition should be ahead:
* Alliance mistakes leading to turn 3 fall of Kzintai
* Overall game is imbalanced in favor of Coalition under the basic rules [this is the 2000 edition with no expansions; don't know other rulesets.]
Overall position -- I'll have a much better idea after this turn's Kzintai battle.
Andrew
I would say the dice over such a long time period have slowed the Coalition down.
Another 40 Coalition ships would make a large difference - as would 2 less Alliance SB's. I would have thought the Feds would have been under alot more sustained pressure - rather than jist local pressure.
The early capture of 1401 was pretty major boost for the Coalition- although my turn 7 attack on the Federation was well planned - the follow up turns (10 to 15) have been pretty poor (with dice being the key I think). The temporary loss of 1401 (and killing of I think it was 9 Lyran PDU's) altered the game dynamics alot - I have had to camp a large Coalition fleet on 1401 to hold it ever since!
Couple of key battles this turn will show if the Alliance has turned the corner....
I thought I'd elaborate a bit on why I think delaying builds was correct. They Hydrans still hold Hydrax, and they didn't need to build any extra PDUs there until last turn (A19). The planet has simply never been in danger. I think the reason is that other Alliance powers were putting enough pressure on the Coalition that they could never threaten the hex. And 12x7=84EP not spent on PDUs means that many more Hydran ships in the field.
The only reason they had to start building them last turn is the coming of PFs, which create a window around C23 where the Coalition might be able to take the hex.
Hydrax was never taken?
Richard,I wrongly went for the turn 7 invasion of the Federation.
Although it will not help me for several turns - atleast the Feds will hit 75% Economic Exhaustion on turn 27 - rather than turn 30 in most games.
Reserves have been dispatched.
In Romulan space, I should be able to mug a Gorn DD (Con v DD) with +2 on SSC. Can't remember the last time I killed an Alliance ship in SSC - so hopefully my luck will change.
Reserves in Hydran space Op moved to help pin the bulk of the Hydrans out of 1013 - and most Reserves in Federation space are pinned.
Only on the Kzinti front did I get to move them all - and they all ended up in 1401...... on average dice, 1401 will be a mess and I think I can just about hold it.
Battles have started - and my poor luck continues.
Battle 1 - I rolled 1 higher, but same percentage done
Battle 2 - I rolled 1 higher, but same percantage done
Battle 3 - I rolled 2 lower and do 5% less damagae (I needed 25% plus 15% in the persuit to get 3 damage in total - my initial poor roll of 20% has saved William from crippling a ship basically)
Battle 4 - One of the key battles of the turn - I rolled 1 lower and do 5% less damage.
As usual, I am getting hammered on the dice 'split' rolls. How come?
How come?!? Because they rolled that way, that's why!
Paul is obsessed with dice and luck. I wouldn't mess with him on this issue. It's like wrestling with the pig. The pig likes it and you get dirty.
Hah, yes ok.
Obsessed - no - unlucky yes!
Just 'won' a battle and rolled 1 more than William.
I am 3 for 3 now on 'winning' and not doing a higher percentage (and 2 for 2 of rolling less and doing a lower percentage).
I honestly asked the question - 'how' does it happen?
After what 4,000 rolls (???)), my average damage is massively less than Williams damage (I would guess my average is probably now 7.5% less than William!).
I can't explain it - but the facts are there!
I am not gonna wrestle the pig I will just ignore all the stats classes I took when I got my Math degree!
Michael - you are wise. Remember, the pig just likes it.
BTW: I'm not calling Paul a pig!
Honestly, I don't really believe you. I think it more likely that you've forgotten good rolls or have discarded them in your mind if they were 'wasted' good rolls. I assume you are talking about average die rolls and it's not caused by always having an EW disadvantage or some such.
I mean, it's vaguely possible to roll 3 points under ones opponent, on average, over 4000 rolls, but it's so incredibly unlikely that I'd have to actually see it with my own eyes to believe it.
To be clear, I'm not calling you a liar, I'm just saying that I think you've forgotten things or are mistaken in some way.
Michael
No Maths Degree - but I am pretty good at Maths!
Richard
I have analysed on a turn by turn basis most rolls - and so alas for me, it isn't selective memory forgetting all the good rolls!
EW is usually even, and to be honest, we probably are very similar on 'losing' damage when we don't have EW.
If we was using the advanced table - outrolling my 7.5% would be pretty hard (but not impossible).
I would guess, my average roll is probably just over 1 pip under Williams.
As we are using the basic table though (the 5% blocks one), it's very easy.
As an example - on the first five battles, my average roll is 0.2 pips under Williams (10 v 9) - but I did 10% less damage.
And William hasn't rolled as well as he usually does!
On the the 7.5% that is the damage more than I did - so if I did an average of say 30% - William has done say 32.5% (not 37.5%) - per battle round.
I'll post the more recent battles at lunchtime!
OK - Only two more battles have been rolled
Persuit battle for my unlucky D5 (which rolled the 20%) - I don't now what the dice was as no result has arrived yet (although William has said I didn't get the roll needed to get 40%) - so I'll ignore that from the Calculation!
In the other battle (another key one - the Hydran raid on my FRD+MB at 1013) - I actually outrolled William by 3 - and if it wasn't for EW, would have only done 5% more damage (EW dropped him to a high 20% from a low 25%).
So ignoring EW - I have rolled 2 points higher on the dice (in 6 battles) - and yet have done 5% less damage (esimated at 130% from William v my 125%).
Hows that for being (un)lucky?
It seems that your die rolls are fine, it's just the battle mixes that are unfavorable?
Richard, what did I say about wrestling?
I think Lady Luck directs all of Paul's high rolls to mauler shock and pursuit chances because he keeps scrutinizing her pips. 
Andrew - thats not as stupid as it sounds.
I did go through a phase where I was shocking twice as often as I should do.
The problem resolvesd itself when I just staretd self crippling all the time...
Battles for the turn continue - although the dice are fairly balanced - William still is getting the luck on key dice.
A Fed CVL survived by a single point of damage and over 1401, a Fed 3CVN group (I had already direct killed the outer escort to give me a good chance of killing the group) would have died if I got the dice William got... (William got a 5, I got a 2 - although a 4 would have been enough for me). As William rolled so well - he even got to kill 4 PDU's - and I had 11 owed points!!!!
About the only good combat dice resulted in me getting enough (I think it was 50/50) to kill an already crippled LM over 1013.
Key summary so far
1401 - Kztini 3CVS, Fed FFS and a Fed FFE killed for 8 PDU's (2 remain and battle still rages)
1013 - L-FRD, K-MB and F5S killed for a LM
(Largest blunder of the war for afew turns in letting afew Hydran ships into my only base on the border - I should have pulled another 3 or 4 ships back and let the Hydrans own one of their provinces).
Elsewhere - the Alliance continues it's 100% success on persuits and for once, some Romulan Cloaks actually worked!
Sorry if I am abit grumpy over the next few days..
Latest round of battles (5 battles)
William averaged 5.2
I averaged 2.8
Again timing is hugely relevant.
The least important battle was where Williams rolled a 3 and I rolled a 6.
The most important battle, William rolled a 5 and I rolled a 1.
For the both times in 5 battles over 1401 - William has overcome 20+ owed damage to basically kill the maximum number of PDU's.
No side can win any game where the dice are so different.
Paul- LOL! Touche! Gramma always said the good Lord gave us all a gift...
I just wanted to offer some silliness to lighten yer heart and hopefully shake you out of your funk. After rereading the entire 'Across the Pond' history, it is easy to see (how) your attention telescoping to the results of Chance and it's effect on your morale (as well as William's). Crazy dice aside, it still seems like a very close game. And tho the tempo of your playing time and posts have diminished over time, I am very interested in seeing how this war ends up.
A few observations and questions, tho. The T3 capture of the Tigerman capital was indeed a coup. And though I shudder at the thought of William's decision to postpone SY completion to T14(?), I can't argue with the results the Kzinti's constant pressure has bought at the price of an ever shrinking fleet: A strong Hydran fleet still in control of their capital and a more or less strong and stable Fed/Gorn SE production complex at T20. The Alliance has taken it's pounding and dark days and has somehow seen their way to some sunlight. According to William's C19 ship rosters, the Coalition still has a heavy repair backlog. Even though it's a bummer, I'm curuious to see if Paul take's a page out of William's book and forgoes some builds for mass repairs to create a reserve for one last big push somewhere. 
Also, I kind of thought I'd have seen more Coalition maulers(14) and D6Ds(5). Tho the FE2K (only) rules and the breaks of this game (EPs)obviously are factors.
Remember to have fun, dang it! Follow thru with your good plans and pay the pound of flesh to seize your objectives because it'll cost you an arm, a leg, and a bucket o' tears later. You know it. And in the words of an obscure freighter captain, "NEVER TELL ME THE ODDS!!"
Cheers!
[edit:this is a response to your March 5 post]
I took my time posting and just saw your latest...
Gads.
Hang in there dude.