Well, I have anaylsed the rolls that I have (it helps me slowly release pressure!).

For 19 battles, details are (effect of EW has been ignored)

VBIR 77 (Average of 4.05)
Alliance 59 (3.11)
Coalition 52 (2.74)

That has translated to 510% Damage v 485% Damage.

I am actually slightly ahead on the average damage 'per dice pip' (8.6% v 9.3%) and so I haven't been hurt as badly as the initial 5 battles of the round indicated would happen.

Average per round has been 26.8% v 25.5%.

But that doesn't tell the whole story.

In the Vital battle so far (1401 - 5 rounds) averages are 3 v 2, which equates to 26% per round by William v my 23%.

3% with an average of say 200 compot per round makes a big difference (about 30 damage!).

In getting the right roll at the right time, has also reduced the PDU killing time by 1 to 2 rounds. (Rolling a 1 on the main round with all 10 PDU's didn't help me!).

It took William 4 rounds to kill 10 PDU's (10>7>6>2, now 0 progression IIRC) without maulers, which seems to be pretty good when every round had a stack of minus points to overcome!

In the Key battle (1013 - 3 rounds) it was 3 v 4 (and 30% v 31.67%). Average compot per side was only 40 or so.

In Moderate relevance battles (4 hexes - 5 rounds) it was 2.8 v 2.6 and 27% v 25%.

In Small/not relevant Battles (3) it was 4 v 3.67 and both on 26.67%

In minor battles (generally a small fleet mugging a ship or two - 3 battles) it was 3 v 2 and 25% v 23.33%.

This is the second time I think I have done a 'full analysis' of rolls - and I think it does confirm, that the dice are having a major effect on the game.

I can only remember 1 event where good dice benefits me (Northern Reserve SB should have died on A18 I think and it lived) - and 3 Alliance SB's (1 of which is 3 times) got saved by poor dice from me.

1401 isn't as bad as I thought - but 30 damage is still alot to not have to take (especially when there was a fair chance of a CVN group dying and I missed the roll)!

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Wednesday, March 07, 2012 - 11:55 am: Edit

I thought I'd give my perspective on the dice. In my view, all of the following are true:

1) Paul outrolled me on turn 1, but after that his early dice were terrible for several turns. Overall, my luck in the early game was much better than his.

2) The recent turns were mostly pretty even. In particular, I rolled terribly in a bunch of open space battles in Kzinti space. They were important because if I could cripple a bunch of Coalition ships ahead of the Kzintai assault, that assult would become easier.

3) This turn has been terrible for Paul, again. 1401 is important for sure -- though it appears Paul may not be trying to hold the hex. If true, that means it's important as an attrition battle -- not for territory.

4) About 1401 -- Obviously I would love to take the hex. But the really essential thing was to kill all the PDUs, as this was the last turn to do that before the arrival of PFs. And I would have been able to do that much regardless of the dice. If I cleared out the PDUs but did not take the hex, I would then get fresh fighters and a repair cycle for another try the next turn. With the PDUs gone, he would need considerable reinforcements to hold the hex a second time, as has very little repair capacity within 6 hexes of 1401.

5) Chances of the CVN group dying (prior to the VBIR roll) were 7 in 36. Not something one wants to have happen, but it's the kind of risk that has to be taken in close capital assault battles. Mauling the 3CVN group would of course have helped my chances of taking the hex, as it would have dropped my compot by 4 points at most.

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Monday, March 12, 2012 - 08:52 am: Edit

Well, my sanity isn't going to take much more of this.

2 more rolls over 1401 - 2 more massive wins on the dice for the Alliance

Round 6, 4 v 1 = 20% v 15%
Round 7, 5 v 4 = 25% v 20%

So over 7 rounds of the most important combat for about 8 turns, William has done a higher percentage in 4 of them, and we have had equal in 3.

With luck like this - why continue? (I am after positive reasons!)

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Monday, March 12, 2012 - 09:09 am: Edit

Found the other roll info

So over 7 rounds, rolls are

William 2 x 1, 3, 4, 3 x 5
My rolls 3 x 1, 2 x 2, 2 x 4

Averages of 3.42 v 2.14 and 25% v 21.4%

Anyone want to give away 47 damage over 7 rounds (and thats the average I would have done, if I had rolled just what William has rolled).

By Richard B. Eitzen (Rbeitzen) on Monday, March 12, 2012 - 09:27 am: Edit

A one point delta is not a massive win on the dice.

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Monday, March 12, 2012 - 10:11 am: Edit

Richard - it may not seem alot, but when that corresponds to an approximate increase in damage of say 18% - it's pretty major!!

And when those same dice have generally constantly rolled poorly for 1 side in major battles - the issue becomes even more major.

I wish I could say it another way - but the dice are destroying the enjoyment of the game - as I can't do anything when I always roll 1 less than whats needed to achieve something - and the other side always seems to get the right roll.

(William has generally rolled pretty average - but get good rolls when it's relevant, and poor rolls when it's not. I occasionly get a good roll when it is not relevant and poor rolls the rest of the time!).

A good example - I have had to alter my playing style, as I always seem to miss the required roll level in smaller battles (need 25% say - I get 20%. William needs 30%...and he will get 30%!) - I had a choice in 1 battle of a 5/6 chance of a success from me, with a 50/50 chance of success from William.

I choose to keep my ship safe (and retreated it and left fighters). I still had a 3/36 chance of sucess - and we both rolled 1's in the end!

The odds are just not working as they should at the moment (the proberbial coin toss of a tail 100 times in a row is most certainly happening).

By Ted Fay (Catwhoeatsphoto) on Monday, March 12, 2012 - 10:51 am: Edit

Richard... remember who you're wrestling with.

That being said... Paul, you know it's precisely because you obsess over the dice that you are doing so poorly on the rolls. (stoke, stoke, stoke...)

By Michael Parker (Protagoras) on Monday, March 12, 2012 - 05:12 pm: Edit

Paul,

You are just a tad bit more than 3 standard deviations below the mean. A very rough estimate is that the probability if such a thing occuring in your 7 trials is about .0027 or roughly 3 times in a thousand. This is a horrible estimate as I am using 7 trials and assuming the sum is normally distributed, we would usually want 30 or so trials before making this assumption but when you see the comparison it doesn't matter.

The probability of observing 100 tails in a row tossing a fair coin is 7.31x10^-31 or

.000000000000000000000000000000731

compared to

.0027 even if you claim my estimate is off by an order of magnitute your still 1x10^-27 off.

I claim extreme hyperbole.

By Ted Fay (Catwhoeatsphoto) on Monday, March 12, 2012 - 07:50 pm: Edit

Michael, as I said before, don't wrestle with the pig. The pig likes it and you get dirty! Just let Paul vent. ;)

Besides, what Paul doesn't tell you is that his good luck show up in my game - where he consistently does better than average. Then again, now I'm doing the wrestling....

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Thursday, March 15, 2012 - 04:43 am: Edit

Just to be fair...on round 8 over 1401 I finally did a higher % level of damage than William!

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Wednesday, March 21, 2012 - 06:05 pm: Edit

Well, we have now had 30 rolls...

Most recent batch was pretty awful for me....

Alliance Average increased to 3.367

Coalition Average has dropped to 2.833

Both % averages have gone up though to 27% v 25.67%.

Total % Damage is 810% v 770%.

How many rolls are needed to make it statistically - I am unlucky in this game?

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Sunday, March 25, 2012 - 06:55 am: Edit

Well, my dice generally go from bad to worse.

Another 50/50 goes in Williams favour - and I still fail to get enoguh to direct and kill (lose a FH for crippling 1 ship)

In the latest batch of : 1 draw, one +5% to me and two -5%'s and a -10%.

So after 35 dice rounds -

averages are 3.428 v 2.857
Total 955% v 900%
Average % a round 27.285% v 25.714%

So basically 1 round in 3, I do less 5% damage.

And this turn I think I have rolled better than I usually do!

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Sunday, March 25, 2012 - 11:04 am: Edit

The roller just served up another 6-1 in my favor over 1401. More steam-blowing-off from Paul doubtless coming this way soon.

I went into this battle with a perfectly good plan for what to do if the rolls were unfavorable -- kill off the PDUs, kill off my fighters, retreat with a relatively intact fleet, and come back next turn. However, it is looking increasingly unlikely that that will be necessary.

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Sunday, March 25, 2012 - 11:37 am: Edit

So over 1401 - with 120+ compot lines (and my started at over 250)

William has caused a higher % damage in five rounds, drawn in four, and I rolled a higher % in one.

What can I do?

By Richard B. Eitzen (Rbeitzen) on Sunday, March 25, 2012 - 11:44 pm: Edit

Shut up and soldier on!

By Paul Edwards (Pablomatic) on Thursday, August 30, 2012 - 01:30 pm: Edit

Paul, grit your teeth, get into a "kill the enemy" mindset, and just "know" that each roll is going to hammer the enemy. Salivate over the prospect of blowing key enemy units to space dust with all hands regardless of your own casualties. All I see is red when I press the dice-roller in combat lately. I try to send pure hate for the enemy manifested through the dice roller. Thowing in a war-cry when pressing doesn't hurt either: "Eat fire alien scum!" for the xenophobic Romulans. "Die capitalist-imperialists" for the Klingons, and "Time to cook dinner!" for the Lyrans. When I have the inevitable bad rolls, I now forget it and concentrate on how much pain I will cause the next time. Doesn't always work, but it seems to have helped bring my rolls to approximately average in combat. Hasn't helped stop the enemy from clobbering me in E&S, high-risk survey rolls,depot rolls, or capture rolls, but combat rolls seem to have evened out somewhat.

Do I beleive this actually has an effect on the dice roller? No. Does it help me deal with frustration? Yes, because I am too busy focusing on the next roll--where I am going to make the bad-guys pay dearly for daring to come within range--to worry about the last roll. If I then miss that next roll I chuckle to myself that NOW the enemy is really, REALLY in for it next round. It's to the point now where I have actually felt sorry for my opponent a time or two (I am after all a compassionate person) as he suffered under my wrath.

Now this all is dangerous mental territory for reality, but in the context of the game I have no compassion at all for cardbord abstractions.

I'm not belittling your frustration Paul, but the above tecnique has helped channel my own frustration into a productive outlet (killing those alien freeks).

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Sunday, September 02, 2012 - 09:53 pm: Edit

After a 6-month truce, this war may be back on soon. Stay tuned.

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Saturday, October 13, 2012 - 03:51 pm: Edit

Well, the battle over 1401 is nearly finished (just a persuit roll to do).

12 Rounds

William rolled an average of 4.I rolled an average of 2.667.

It took until round 8 for me to roll higher and do a higher perentage;

Overall
William did
+10% damage in 3 rounds
+5% damage in 3 rounds
I did
+10% damage in 1 round

Timing of the dice was pretty perfect for William (the PDU's couldn't have really died any quicker!) and about the only 'luck' I got, was that when William rolled a 6 and I rolled a 1 (which happened twice!), the difference was only 10% (on the 5% damage table, it's a 50/50 on being 10% or 15%!) - but saying that, when I did roll higher by 1 on rounds 1 and 3 - I didn't do any more damage - and the single round when William rolled 1 higher - he did do more damage.

Elsewhere - the dice continue to favour William (the only recent battle I rolled higher in made no difference really - a poor roll would have crippled a FF - a good roll would cripple a NCL).

Here's hopping my luck will improve.

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Sunday, October 14, 2012 - 11:17 am: Edit

Well persuit battle went the way of the main battle.

My 84 Compot Persuit force....does 17 damage.

VBIR goes the wrong way AND I roll a 2 - plus EW has an effect.

So a crippled EFF direct killed and a TGC+BP for me self crippled!

Pretty much a perfect roll for William (enough to force me to cripple something) - as with the VBIR going down - I don't think he would get 2 ships crippled - even with a 6!

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Thursday, October 18, 2012 - 11:50 am: Edit

We both agreed that the lopsided results in 1401 reduced our interest in the game. So we adjusted them back to roughly even by crippling some extra Alliance ships at the end of round 10. The roller then gave us an equal result on round 11, and went back to favoring me on round 12 and in the pursuit.

Alliance crips in the 1401 region are 90-odd EP. Most are from the 1401 battle that just completed, and there are a few more from a multi-round battle over a nearby minor planet. Since we can repair 26EP per turn offmap, this should be a snap (just kidding).

Coalition crips in the region are 50-60EP, again mostly from the 1401 battle. The total is less because a lot of Alliance damage went to killing PDUs. Their nearby repair capacity depends on how one defines "nearby". The Klingon NR SB and the closets initial Lyran SB are both intact, as are three Klingon BATS along the Kzinti border. Of course they also have plenty of capacity at Klinshai and Lyrantan.

With the PDUs in 1401 down, the large number of Alliance fighters in the region may pose an interesting challenge for Paul over the coming turns. He will have PFs available which will likely help.

I can now reveal that the most important objective of the Kzintai assault was to hold Hydrax! The arrival of PFs creates a window around turn C23 when Hydrax is vulnerable. Any PFTs that go to Kzintai will obviously not be at Hydrax . . .

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Tuesday, October 30, 2012 - 11:18 am: Edit

Combat has ended with the roller actually giving Paul a few good rolls, the net effect of which was that a big Hydran line didn't do much against a much weaker Coalition fleet. To summarize the turn:

Hydran front -- MB and FRD at 1013 (Klingon border hex 6 hexes from Hydrax) destroyed. The Coalition now has no hardpoints or repair capacity within 6 hexes of Hydrax, which should help the Hydrans out on that front. The Coalition does hold some planets in Hydran space, but supply tugs are required to keep them supplied.

Kzinti front -- 1401 battle -- all PDUs destroyed. That needed to happen this turn, as next turn they could have been sent PFs. Alliance lost some big ships in the battle -- at least one Fed BT, a Kzinti CVS group, a Kzinti BC, and others. The Klingons self killed 5D5. The Coalition holds the hex, with no fixed defenses remaining.

Fed and Gorn fronts -- lots of battles over relatively unimportant targets. Alliance forces retook a bunch of devastated minors. The Klingons did manage to hold one minor within range of Earth. Probably most of the minors will be retaken on his turn.

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Wednesday, November 07, 2012 - 05:13 pm: Edit

Alliance retroes and reserves are done. The reserves are weakened because of the large commitment to the Kzintai assault. In fact, the Kzinti have no reserves at all. Fed reserves are about 7 ships each and are spread all the way from the 6th fleet SB to the Kzinti planet near the border (1802?). Hydran reserves are also very small because they needed every ship that could impact the 1013 battle in order to get through. They do have a 4-ship reserve and a 2-ship reserve, both based in the Old Colonies. Gorn reserves are more or less normal-sized.

The Gorn 2nd fleet SB was crippled on C19. It has now repaired 2 SIDS, uncrippling it and leaving it with 6 SIDS. A determined assault could still kill the SB. The Gorns don't have the shipcount to stop this. But they have deployed to make it an expensive proposition.

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Saturday, November 24, 2012 - 05:34 am: Edit

Going to look at the map this weekend to plan the Grand 'Re-Offensive'.

Alas the Alliance Counter Attack - was not only well planned and executed - but luck was very much with the Alliance, making it far more painful than it could have been.

I did make a big mistake over 1013 - should have move more forces there to ensure I could pin him out - but I got greedy I think!

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Saturday, December 08, 2012 - 01:55 pm: Edit

OK

Coalition Turn 21 has started.

Coalition Economy is pretty standard - with the Lyrans churning out there first two PF Tenders!

Lyrans also build a PDU and a FRD to replace what has been lost. (Lyrans are the only owners of the Coalition FRD's!).

The 1401 assault has taken abit of steam out of the Alliance Counterattack - and so the Coalition might get abit of a breather!

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Sunday, December 09, 2012 - 01:04 am: Edit

What, just cos we have 100EP of crips and only 26EP of repair capacity? Why would a thing like that matter?