AT20

Moves continue!

In Kzinti space, the Kzinti are attacking everything they can reach inside of Kzinti space, and have advantaged fights in all places they are hitting currently (1001, 1105, 1202, 1504, some groups of province raiders, 1502 was abandoned by the garrison holding it when they reacted to a neighboring hex). They still have ships to move, and can attack 1506 and/or 1407, but there is a giant Lyran fleet in 1407 that is currently un-engaged. The only reserves available for Kzinti space can really only reach 1105 and 1407/1506.

The Gorn are consolidating their fleets, attacking the convoy left in 4504, the Romulan fleet holding 4403, and some northern province raiders.

The Feds are attacking everything in the North of Fed space currently (most of the Coalition reserves are in the South side of Fed space), and they have started sending ships to planet 2403, likely resulting in a giant pile on and drubbing of the Klingons there.

Moves continue.

By Peter Bakija (Bakija) on Sunday, November 18, 2018 - 09:40 am: Edit

AT20

Moves are likely nearing their end.

In Hydran space, the Hydrans are attacking province raiders in 2 spots and have their main fleet at planet 0416, facing a much smaller Coalition force. The Hydrans will certainly win al three of their hexes (the Coalition are lacking useful, unpinned reserves on this front).

In Kzinti space, the Kzinti are attacking 4 captured planets and three hexes of province raiders. The Kzinti are moderately to significantly advantaged in all these hexes. There is one Coalition reserve that can reach a couple fights.

In Fed space, the Feds are pinning most of the Coalition reserves, likely reclaiming numerous planets in the north half of Fed space; they are attacking nothing below the xx10 line, and are mostly clearing and consolidating their Northern space. They'll probably recapture planets 2306, 2509, 2610, 3005, 3210, 3706. They might take back 3509, but that one is less likely. They completely avoided the ships in the ex Orion province. Most Fed ships have moved at this point. Which is a *lot* of ships.

In Gorn space, the Gorn are taking back 4403, attacking the convoy in 4504, some province raiders in 4703, and their forward deployed fleet from SB 4206 snuck past the Romulan pinning fleet in 4309 and are attacking (likely to destroy) BATS 4710 (I could have reacted to stop them, but if they changed direction, I would have been in non optimal position, so I didn't react. And also probably forgot that BATS was still there...)

Currently 31 battle hexes, a few more ships to move.

By Peter Bakija (Bakija) on Monday, November 19, 2018 - 07:20 pm: Edit

AT20

Movement is done!

In Hydran space, three battle hexes, the Hydrans are going to win all of them, including taking back planet 0416. Which is problematic.

In Kzinti space, there are seven battle hexes. The Kzinti will win at least 6 of them. The Lyrans sent a reserve to go help at planet 1105, where the Coalition are modestly advantaged at this point. If the Kzinti push it and roll well, they could win, but odds favor the Coalition here.

In Fed space, there are seventeen battle hexes. The Fed are winning/clearly advantaged in 12 battles; the Coalition sent reserves (or reaction forces) to 3 of the battle hexes, and will certainly win those (all three of them are small forces attacking province raiders, where the Feds will just likely lose an FF). Planet 3509 is held by the Romulans and got reinforced by a reserve, so the Romulans will probably win, but with luck and persistence, the Feds might take the planet back if they work for it. At planet 2403, the Feds have equivalent forces to the Coalition, but the Coalition have an EW advantage, and can fight an approach battle to keep the Feds away from the FRD and pile of cripples there; the Feds didn't overkill this planet like I was expecting them to, instead sending forces to totally take back planet 2306, which they certainly will if they want to.

In Gorn space, there are 4 battle hexes. They are certainly taking back capital hex 4403, probably killing the convoy in 4504, killing a province raider in 4703, and probably killing Romulan BATS 4710--the Romulans sent a modest reserve there to help defend it, but if the Gorn are persistent, they can certainly kill the BATS.

A total of 31 battle hexes. The Alliance will win most of them.

Combat to begin shortly!

By Peter Bakija (Bakija) on Wednesday, November 21, 2018 - 07:35 am: Edit

AT20

Combat rages across the octant!

In Hydran space, nothing unexpected happened. The Hydrans killed a couple E4s and recaptured planet 0416, chasing the Coalition off after a single round of combat. The Hydrans currently control the three provinces in the west edge of their space, and have about 100 ships (and then a billion fighters) sitting on 0416.

In Kzinti space, the Kzinti are reclaiming most of their space this turn; they have retaken 1001, 1202, 1502, 1504, most of their provinces. Combat is still underway over 1105, where the Coalition seem to want to hold on to the planet.

In Fed space, most combat in the West side is done. The Fed have recaptured planets 2509 and 2610, killed a bunch of province raiders, were repelled from planets 2106 and 2306, and over planet 2403, the Feds fought through an approach battle, two rounds over the planet, directing the FRD on the last round they were there, and then fled. So an FRD died (due to me being dumb and moving it there in the first place), but at least I wasn't pushed off the planet and murdered in pursuit.

Not much combat has happened on the East side of the map yet. So far, the Coalition have lost 20 ships (and an FRD) and the Alliance have lost 12 ships. Still about 11 fights left to go.

By Peter Bakija (Bakija) on Wednesday, November 21, 2018 - 02:09 pm: Edit

AT20

Combat is at a little pause (as it is not yet morning for my opponent :-); over 1105, after 3 rounds of the Kzinti direct killing things and the Coalition dropping damage, we finally saw an exciting pursuit fight, where the Coalition caught a line full of Kzinti cripples, but due to the vagaries of fate, the BIR rolled up, the Kzinti rolled hot, and I didn't put my FD7 in the formation box (putting the scout in there instead), so the Kzinti shot down my fast cruiser, but I bagged 3 crippled FFs.

Combat to the West of Earth is done; now to the fire in the East!

By Peter Bakija (Bakija) on Thursday, November 22, 2018 - 01:32 pm: Edit

AT20

Combat is underway in the east!

So far, the Romulans are slightly below average on cloaked evasion rolls (making 5/8, or about 63%), losing a couple small province raiders. Battles are raging over 3005 (the Romulans will probably flee after one round), 3210 (the Klingons are fighting uphill here, also will probably flee after a round or two), 3509 (the Romulans have a bigger fleet than the Feds here, who have a big fleet, but the Romulans probably hold out here), and 4505 (Gorns attacking the Romulan convoy; the Gorns have more ships, but the Romulans have higher compot and more fighters; it is unclear what the Gorn plan on doing, but they can certainly direct the convoy this round).

As of press time (and I don't wanna jinx him), the Alliance have been rolling up this turn, currently at an average of 3.7 in 19 recorded rolls, opposed to the Alliance's average of 3.0. So justice is coming!

By Gregory S Flusche (Vandor) on Thursday, November 22, 2018 - 08:00 pm: Edit

and when it is needed the dice gods join the federation

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Friday, November 23, 2018 - 03:52 pm: Edit

It's all relevant though - in when a side rolls well or not.

It wouldn't have helped the Germans a lot in the Battle of Berlin if they had rolled a 6 and the Russians a 1

By Gregory S Flusche (Vandor) on Friday, November 23, 2018 - 08:32 pm: Edit

Yes but at Stalingrad perhaps it might have helped.

By jim howard (Noseybonk) on Saturday, November 24, 2018 - 04:17 am: Edit

or even more importantly, Kursk.

By Peter Bakija (Bakija) on Saturday, November 24, 2018 - 08:43 am: Edit

AT20

Combat is nearing an end.

Over planet 3210, the Feds out gunned and out EW-ed the Klingons, so after one round, the Klingons retreated, giving the Federation back control of planet 3210 for the first time since, like, T12 or something. At planet 3005, a larger, better Fed force pushed a Romulan battle line off the planet. At 3509, the Romulans are fighting back and will probably hold the planet from a similarly sized Fed force (the Romulans have higher general compot and more fighters), but in R2, both sides rolled high and did a ton of damage (we are waiting to resolve), and at 4504, the Gorn directed a convoy, took a few cripples, and are running with the Romulans pursuing.

A few fights left to go--4403 (the Gorn will win this fight in a single round of combat), 4710 (the Gorn will probably destroy this BATS), and I think those are the only fights left to do.

So far, the Coalition have lost 27 ships (19 of them Klingon), an FRD, and a Convoy; the Alliance have lost 18 ships (3 in pursuit with no salvage).

By Peter Bakija (Bakija) on Sunday, November 25, 2018 - 10:23 am: Edit

AT20

Combat is over!

In Hydran space, the Hydrans took back planet 0416, the west most provinces, and have a solid connection to the off map zone for supply.

In Kzinti space, the, Kzinti reclaimed all of their planets except 1105, and most of their space.

In Fed space, the Fed reclaimed 5 planets, lots of Northern space, and killed a (badly placed) FRD.

In Gorn space, the Gorn took back Capital hex 4403, killed a Convoy, and destroyed a Romulan Border BATS in 4710.

Ships Killed:
-LYR: 2DWE, 2FF
-KLI: FD7, D5S, 2D5, 3F5E, 3E4A, 8E4
-ROM: FHF, SPC, SP, 2SEH, SN, (SPF), (BATS), (CONV)

-ZIN: 2FFK, 2FF, (3FF)
-HYD: KN
-FED: NCL, SC, 8FF
-GRN: 2HD, DDE, (2HD)

So 29 dead Coalition, 23 dead Alliance.

The Alliance rolled well this turn (finally...), out rolling the Coalition and rolling above average (while the Coalition rolled low). Alliance averaged 3.83, Coalition averaged 3.29.

While I don't think the Coalition is going to be losing any Capital hexes real soon or anything, I think this is the turn where the Alliance started to turn it around. The Feds have enough ships now to be able to operate pretty much with impunity in Fed space; they have pushed the Coalition back and recaptured plenty of space. The Coalition can still hit targets and take back planets and space, but I think the Feds are reasonably safe at this point.

By Peter Bakija (Bakija) on Sunday, November 25, 2018 - 10:34 am: Edit

So keeping track of ship growth numbers:

For total T20, the Coalition built 60 new ships, lost 52 ships, for a net growth of +8 ships.

For total T20, the Alliance built 60 new ships, lost 35 ships, for a net growth of +25 ships.

This ignores fighter and PF SEQ, which makes calculations weird; the Alliance gained 45 FFF T20 (7.5 SEQ), but didn't use them all; the Coalition gained 30 FFF (5 SEQ), and also a bunch of PFs. The Hydrans had a weird construction this turn, as they were paying off a bunch of accidental deficit (we aren't using ADS; they Hydrans accidentally had too much money for the last few turns which we just noticed, and balanced out this turn).

By Peter Bakija (Bakija) on Sunday, November 25, 2018 - 05:13 pm: Edit

And in continuing ship number analysis:

As of T21, the Coalition production numbers (in terms of hulls per turn):

-KLI: 22
-LYR: 12
-ROM: 18

For a total of +52 hulls per turn. The Romulans get their last 2 hulls out of mothballs on T21 (so the Coalition will produce 54 hulls on T21, plus any overbuilds they decide to do).

Alliance production is:

-FED: 30
-ZIN: 12
-HYD: 12
-GRN: 11

For a hypothetical maximum of +65 hulls a turn. The Hydrans are currently at minimal economy, and even if they turn all their builds into FFs, they still probably can't build a full run of 12 ships; on T21, they have a lot of FFF they need to get on hulls before they start losing them, so probably a minimal number of hulls on T21 from the Hydrans. But even if the Hydrans only build 2 hulls (unlikely), the Alliance still outproduce the Coalition.

The Coalition are shifting into PF production, which is a lot of SEQ quickly; the Alliance still are getting 45 FFF to the Coalition's 30, which also adds up quickly.

By Richard B. Eitzen (Rbeitzen) on Sunday, November 25, 2018 - 06:06 pm: Edit

Hydrans get 12 and a half a turn (one PG? a year). :p

Tholians will jump in soon.

By Jason Langdon (Jaspar) on Sunday, November 25, 2018 - 06:39 pm: Edit

Cant wait for the Tholians to go a little crazy !

And Peter, the Hydrans are going to be converting ships in to carriers, meaning they are not getting new hulls, but they still get Ship Equivalents.

By Peter Bakija (Bakija) on Monday, November 26, 2018 - 08:47 am: Edit

Yeah, the Tholians are definitely a concern, and probably part of the reason that the Feds are starting to get an upper hand in the center of Fed space; the Klingons, concerned about Tholian intervention started shifting ships to the South, including invading and conquering Orion, which resulted in ships moving from Western and Eastern Fed space into the South of Fed space. The Klingons ave a good hold of everything South of the xx10 line, but kind of are slipping in their hold of everything else.

By Jason Langdon (Jaspar) on Monday, November 26, 2018 - 03:10 pm: Edit

You just need a few more B10.

Those things are ludicrous !!

By Peter Bakija (Bakija) on Monday, November 26, 2018 - 03:43 pm: Edit

I keep considering starting a second one. But if I was gonna do that, I should have done it, like, 10 turns ago. At this point, if I start a new one, I'll get it, on average, on T33. Which isn't real helpful :-/

Yeah, in other news, I'm now *really* irritated at myself for building those SBs in 2916 instead of 2915...

By Jon Murdock (Xenocide) on Monday, November 26, 2018 - 04:09 pm: Edit

Well obviously you put those starbases there as a clever trap to decoy the Tholians in for their inevitable destruction. These worried messages are just a clever ruse to lull your opponent into the trap. Well done.

There, now there is no way he will risk an attack.

By Jason Langdon (Jaspar) on Monday, November 26, 2018 - 06:09 pm: Edit

I think Peter is foxing me. He wants the Tholians to attack and blow themselves up, then he strolls in to Tholia and takes them out entirely.

By Jon Murdock (Xenocide) on Monday, November 26, 2018 - 06:21 pm: Edit

Or is that what he wants you to think????

(cue ominous music)

By Peter Bakija (Bakija) on Monday, November 26, 2018 - 07:13 pm: Edit

100%. I'm found out!

I will lure the Tholians to come and destroy my 122EP investment in star bases, all so I can then immediately riposte into a devastating attack that captures their Capital!

Bwahahahahhaaha!

(Cough. Cough. Ahem.)

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Tuesday, November 27, 2018 - 03:19 pm: Edit

Ahhhhh...but does he know that we know, that he knows what we know?

Or will he just through the Tholians away as they will die one way or another?

But on sensible point..... at what point could the Coalition attack the Tholian homeworlds if they have destroyed most of their own ships in attacking Coalition bases?

By Gregory S Flusche (Vandor) on Tuesday, November 27, 2018 - 06:50 pm: Edit

“Fool!" cried the hunchback. "You fell victim to one of the classic blunders. The most famous is 'Never get involved in a land war in Asia,' but only slightly less well known is this: 'Never go in against a Sicilian when death is on the line.”

Now take that