reckon that d6v is a d5v?

whats the coalition cripple backlog look like after econ phase?

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Monday, October 14, 2019 - 03:07 pm: Edit

Chris

Correct on the D5V.

There are 89 crippled Coalition ships from the 117 and 1501 battles plus about 20 dotted around the map.... and 46 in 1411!

They repaired 91 ships this turn (plus a dozen or so Romulan who have no crippled ships now) - so a good turn and abit to go!

If they can get the Ep's - might be closer to 1 turn as the Klingons and Lyrans had a modest amount of unused capacity (but there a lot of D6/D7's to repair!).

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Monday, October 14, 2019 - 05:17 pm: Edit

Coalition forces have crossed the Federation border (again) and 3 SB's are under attack so far...

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat2) on Monday, October 14, 2019 - 06:12 pm: Edit

As Paul says, there are three main stacks of Coalition crips. There is a stack at Klinshai which is largely CA. Paul has given these bottom priority for repairing, which means they tend to stay crippled for quite a while. Money permitting, he might be able to scatter these around and repair them all in a single turn, assuming he doesn't take more crips.

The other two stacks are from the big Hydran and Kzinti battles last turn. Both of these have limited repair facilities in range. Paul could tow around some FRD.

C11 op move is well underway. The Klingons are attacking the Feds in a lot of places. Almost all of them are defended. There are a a lot more Klingons who can still move and a smaller number of Feds who can still react. It seems clear that the Klingons will kill something, but it's not clear what.

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Tuesday, October 15, 2019 - 08:51 am: Edit

I really don't like making it easy to play....

...Romulans have just moved a fleet and picked up a few ships on route - ending with 8 ships.

All of them different!!!

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat2) on Wednesday, October 16, 2019 - 08:32 am: Edit

That's what you get for having a fleet with three different series of ships, each of which has a base version of most classes of ship and frequently multiple variants to boot.

So far, there are Romulan pinning attacks on both the 6th and 7th fleet SB, and apparent attempts to capture planets 3711 (adjacent to the 6th) and 3706 (near the Gorns) and to kill BATS 3121 (internal near Orion) and some Gorn border BATS. The Feds have three reserves in the region, none of which has yet been pinned. There are a lot of Romulans still to move.

By chris upson (Misanthropope) on Wednesday, October 16, 2019 - 10:20 am: Edit

at least the romulans (mostly) build one "series" in any given year. look at the freaking hydrans, their fleet is _artisanal_.

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat2) on Wednesday, October 16, 2019 - 08:27 pm: Edit

My concern that 3-4 Romulan-facing reserves might not be enough appears to be justified. Paul has pinned all of the forward (non-reserve) Feds on their front and has almost pinned one reserve.

The unpinned Feds on the Romulan front are 13 equivalents in an unpinnable deep reserve, 11 equivalents in another reserve that is stacked with 4FF and would take 20 equivalents to pin, and 2 equivalents in the almost-pinned reserve. Lastly, there is an unpinnable 7-equivalent reserve that wants to fight the Klingons but could come unpin somebody.

The Romulans still have about 60 equivalents left to move. The bi is that pinning the reserves would take up a lot of them, and an unpin would still be possible.

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat2) on Thursday, October 17, 2019 - 07:49 pm: Edit

Op move is over and reserves have been dispatched. Paul had a more convincing reserve-pulling fleet at the Fed 3rd fleet SB this time. It was also helped by the fact that the SB had 4 SIDS from the previous attempt. The Feds sent a reserve to that SB. On the Romulan front, two Fed reserves were pinned, and the planets they were on may have been under threat (it was close). The Feds sent their deep, strong reserve to unpin the medium one, sent the medium reserve to mostly unpin the light one, and sent portions of the light one to save a minor planet.

The Feds will be losing two minor planets -- 2715 and 3711. They do have some ships on each to at least make the conquerors pay.

It looks like next turn's Fed economy will be roughly 170.

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat2) on Friday, October 18, 2019 - 09:07 am: Edit

And battles have started as a one-in-12 shot to do enough damage to kill a D6D in the scout box came through for the Hydrans. The Coalition retreated from 117 afterwards. So for the moment, the Hydrans get to stay on the map.

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Friday, October 18, 2019 - 12:03 pm: Edit

And dice have continued from turn 10...

So far, 11 combat rounds - average is Coalition 3.1 v Alliance 4.0

… and Offensive Use of the Cloak, after 8 attempts, we have 1 success, 5 nothings and 2 failures (average would be 2, 6 and 0).

Anyone want to comment?

By Alan Trevor (Thyrm) on Friday, October 18, 2019 - 12:43 pm: Edit

It's them negative waves, Moriarty.

By Richard B. Eitzen (Rbeitzen) on Friday, October 18, 2019 - 01:20 pm: Edit

I don't seen anything worth commenting on.

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Friday, October 18, 2019 - 01:38 pm: Edit

Richard

Achieving just 40% of what I should get on successful Offensive Cloak usage and getting over 300% of what I should get on failures isn't worth commenting on?

By A. David Merritt (Adm) on Friday, October 18, 2019 - 01:46 pm: Edit

At this point? No, not really. You have established that dice do not favor you, either plan your games accordingly, or play games that do not rely on dice.

By Jon Murdock (Xenocide) on Friday, October 18, 2019 - 02:16 pm: Edit

Sure, I will comment:

"BAD DICE! YOU SHOULD BE ASHAMED OF YOURSELVES!"

I hope this helped.

Sadly, they are not physical dice or you could smash or melt one of them while the others watch as an example of what lies in store if they do not start performing.

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Friday, October 18, 2019 - 07:29 pm: Edit

ADM - you might be right.

But it is destroying my enjoyment of the game

As an example - the Alliance on turn 11 has so far rolled over 0.7 more than the Coalition and have 22 rolls - that's a lot of out rolling (2.95 v 3.68).

As William mentioned - the first roll he got lucky and rather each losing a cheap escort - I lost a D6D.

In more recent battles, the Alliance does more damage and so the value of maulers is zero - and the VBIR seems to go the way the Alliance needs it to go (most recently battle, VBIR went up 2, I rolled a 2 and William a 6 - net result, I Maul a CC and he kills the Mauler - the game isn't designed to give on side that much luck - constantly.

Noting there is nothing William (or I) can do - but I am just so fed up with the extra kills and cripples I am taking, it seems (although it probably isn't - it's just most turns) every turn.

The Slack Diceroller is so much easier to roll too, but why can't it give equal luck?

So to summarise :-

Alliance has rolled about average on persuits - Coalition massively below.

Alliance outrolls the Coalition consistently in battles

Alliance are above Avergae on Capture rolls - and Coalition below Average on Capture rolls.

Romulan Cloaks failing significantly more often than they should,

The only dice which hasn't been below average - because we have haven't rolled any so far, is Mauler Shock rolls (they have always been self crippled or direct killed).

...and after a bad day at work - the unequal dice ended tonight's sessions earlier than I hoped for.

(On a serious note though - it seems the massive dice imbalance from the last game, appears to have continued in this game).

What other good dice rollers are out there?

By Richard B. Eitzen (Rbeitzen) on Friday, October 18, 2019 - 08:50 pm: Edit

Still no comment on that report.

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat2) on Friday, October 18, 2019 - 10:32 pm: Edit

If it helps Paul, if we are talking about Slack's dicebot only, I think it has favored you so far.

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Saturday, October 19, 2019 - 04:23 pm: Edit

Well, who would have though the dice couldn't get any worse?

After 35 rounds of combat, averages are
VBIR 3.2
Coalition 2.85
Alliance 3.8

Single combat (single roll) 6 v 12

Cloaks - Average success 4.44, 2 Rolled.
Average Failure 1.33, 2 failed

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat2) on Saturday, October 19, 2019 - 09:29 pm: Edit

Turn C11 combat is complete. Paul's dice improved for a while, then turned nasty again at the very end. Results:

• The Coalition used dirdam to kill the last two Kzinti BATS. One of them was already crippled. The Kzinti figure that they got their pound of flesh in return.
• The Coalition took two Fed minor planets and killed seven Fed BATS. There was one BATS assault at 3212 where the Fed defenders were probably mildly favored. That BATS held.
• The only SB assault was at the Fed 9th Fleet SB(2103). The SB took two voluntary SIDS. Paul rolled horribly there, but I think the SB was a heavy favorite to survive anyway.
• A 9-ship Alliance fleet retreated into the Barony. It's a net increase of 4 ships, as 5 of them were reserves that came from the Barony. As a consequence, things are more interesting with Paul's SB upgrade at Kzintai. Defending it will require some effort.
• The Hydrans will collect 1EP on the map.
• The Fed economy looks to be 177EP next turn, unless Paul chooses to retro out of a province somewhere.
• The Feds have two CVA groups facing the Klingons. So they may be able to cause trouble on their turn.

Romulan crips were only 17EP. Klingon-Lyran crips were much more. I should know by tomorrow.

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Sunday, October 20, 2019 - 04:41 am: Edit

The dice were just brutal.

After 48 rounds for Coalition turn 11, averages are

VBIR 3.13
Coalition 3.17
Alliance 3.633

Other than two pursuit combat rolls, the timing of good/bad dice for the Alliance was also pretty much ideal - chances to hurt the Alliance meant poor dice and chances to hurt the Coalition meant good dice.

There was a series of rounds (8 rounds) where the dice just were evil - with averages of 1.875 v 3.875.

Certainly there was 2 battles where luck was needed 3212 BATS (a little bit) and 2103 SB (a fair bit) - which I didn't get.

I can't think of one battle were luck gave me a meaningful benefit

The closest fight - 1803 - I had to do it the hard way - 3 approach battles and 2 rounds to kill the BATS - a better roll at the approach rounds would have got me through a lot quicker.

So in summary
Alliance did 60% more Chart damage over the round (1.2% per round), which is perhaps 5% more actual damage dealt (i.e. doing say 22.5% to 25% every other round) over the turn - Probably 10 more cripples and 4 more dead Coalition. Which from the last few turns is now a fair amount of extra damage received.

Alliance 100% Success on pursuit rolls (3 of 3, might have missed 1 or 2 successes though)

Offensive use of cloaks 45% success rate (2 of 16)
Offensive use of cloaks 150% failure rate (2 of 16)

Capture rolls - for once no captures.

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat2) on Sunday, October 20, 2019 - 06:07 am: Edit

My count of crips, which is surely not quite right, was 47EP for the Klingons and Lyrans, 23EP for the Feds and Kzinti, and only 17EP for the Romulans. The Fed/Kzinti totals were lowered by the fact that a lot of the Coalition damage was going onto fixed defenses, including by dirdam on the two Kzinti BATS.

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Monday, October 21, 2019 - 09:11 am: Edit

This is pretty major - the Alliance has actually under rolled for something.

OK OK OK, an average roll wasn't possible with 13 dice, but the Alliance actually 'only' rolled 45.


(Yes, a roll of 46 would have therefore been above average, but one has to be happy for small mercies!)

By Richard B. Eitzen (Rbeitzen) on Monday, October 21, 2019 - 09:56 am: Edit

That seems pretty minor really.