Fed SB 2004 was hopeless this turn. I had a bunch of forces defending plants further back. Maybe too many, idk. The SB did help the Alliance kill Lyran DN, 3BC and 2CW all directed. The Coalition for their part mainly directed their ire on the Kzinti who lost FF and 3CLE. Also dead are Fed FFE and mobile base.

The Alliance took 10 cripples in the battle, while the Coalition took only 2. Neither side burned through all their fighters.

All in all, this was about the best I could hope to do defending the hopeless SB. The Lyran high compot ships seem to grow faster than weeds in one's garden, so it's always nice to trim them a little.

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Sunday, April 05, 2020 - 12:00 pm: Edit

Well, that ended quickly.

Coalition did a dummy attack on 2103 - both lost a Frigate, but the Kzinti did spend 2 CP's.

(It was very close if both spent 2 Cp's, but if I had spent 1 or 2 CP's more than the Kzinti, it could have fallen).

Total dead for the turn

Lyrans - DN, STT, 4 x BC, 2 x CW plus 4 cripples
Klingons - 2 x D5, 3 x F5 plus 7 cripples
Romulans - FH(Captured), SP and SPF plus 3 cripples


Kzinti - 3 x CLE, 4 x FF (2 x FF captured) - 10 cripples
Hydran - RN, CU and HN plus 1 crippled
Federation - SB, MB, 3 x FF, FFE plus 4 cripples
Gorn - 2 BATS and 5 Cripples


A large number of Kzinti are cut off in NW Federation space - and there is the Federation 6th Fleet Pocket - which is out of full supply, 39 Federation ships (plus cripples) and 2 Gorn ships.

The Federation Third fleet avoided being cut off this turn though.


The Coalition have got everything back into supply.

Edit - Cripples might be off by a ship or two!

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Tuesday, April 07, 2020 - 05:27 pm: Edit

Retrogrades have been done and the Coalition have left signficanr forces in NW Federation space and Gorn space.

Reserves have been set up with

2 covering Hydran space
1 covering Kzinti space
4 covering Federation space
3 covering Gorn Space

(with some overlap on Hydran/Klingon/Fed/Gorn/Romulan space).

Over the Alliance and Turn 18.

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Wednesday, April 08, 2020 - 07:12 pm: Edit

Kzinti economy, turn 18
Kzinti have 2.5EP saved because I forgot to carry over their totals on some prior turns.

Survey roll 11
Survey total 185
Survey EP 14
Offmap 17
Provinces 1
Total 32
Factor 0.75
Income 24
From last turn 2.5
Total Money 26.5

Builds
CMV 7
MEC 6
5FF 12.5

Total spending 25.5

Money after Econ 1
no command points remaining

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Wednesday, April 08, 2020 - 07:16 pm: Edit

Hydran economy, turn 18

Survey roll 11
Survey total 156
Survey EP 12
Offmap 17
Provinces 2
Total before exhaustion 31
Percentage 0.75
Income 23.25
From last turn 0.5

Total Money 23.75

Shipyard (6/6) 15

Conversion
HR>NSC 3

Total spending 18
Money after Econ 5.75
End of turn 5.75

7 command points available

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Wednesday, April 08, 2020 - 07:19 pm: Edit

A18
Survey roll 27
Survey total 212
Survey EP 16
Offmap 6
Capital 59
Planets 35
Provinces 49
NZ 1.8

Income 166.8
From last turn 0.15

Total Money 166.95

Repairs
Earth 27.5
Near Earth 10.5
2nd
3rd 4 (2 SIDS repaired)
6th 8
9th 3.5 (1 SIDS and a ship)
BATS 7
Survey 8
Subtotal 68.5

Builds
CVA 36
14FF 42
BC 10
NCL 5
Skipped: ECL, 2DE, 9NCL
Subtotal 93

Conversions

2NAC 2
2FFE 2
FFS 1

Subtotal 5

Total spent 166.5
Remaining after econ 0.45

6th SB grid: 4 disputed provinces, 2 devastated planets, 3 NZ hexes 6.6 EP
Repairs 5.5
Full supply 5 ships 1
Remaining 0.1

Command points: 3+1=4

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Wednesday, April 08, 2020 - 07:23 pm: Edit

Gorn economy, turn 18

Survey roll 5
Survey total 40
Survey EP 4
Offmap 12
Capital 22
Planets 10
Provinces 22
NZ 3.4
Conquered 1

Income 74.4
From last turn 0.7

Total Money 75.1

Repairs
6th 2
SW 7.5
4203 1.5
4605 2
5203 2
Gdhar 3 7.5

Subtotal 22.5

Builds
DN 18
3HD 15
DD, 2DDE, SC 15

Subtotal 48

Conversions

Gdhar 3 HDE 1
6th CV, HDE 3

Subtotal 4

Total spending 74.5

Money after Econ 0.6

Command points: 5+1=6

Gorns have fewer repairs this time, so they do full builds, which is more than they've done the last few turns.

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Wednesday, April 08, 2020 - 07:29 pm: Edit

The Fed 3rd and 9th fleet SB are the only SB remaining in their respective regions. That makes them valuable, so the Feds chose to repair some SIDS instead of building a second NCL. The also need more ships with a 10 command rating, and CVA are never bad. So they chose to build a CVA and a BC instead of 9NCL.

The number of ships skipped by these choices is large! I could be wrong, but I think it's worth it because their fleet counts are already pretty good, and CVA are so valuable. Also, last turn they had to leave some planets defended by a fleet with a command rating of 9. This meant they needed to keep extra ships back, thereby contributing to the loss of the 8th fleet SB.

By Richard Eitzen (Rbeitzen) on Wednesday, April 08, 2020 - 07:58 pm: Edit

I'd want the SEQs myself. You could just build a BC and downsub the other hull into an NCL or something maybe. You could also sub an FF for the CVA (or any size 3 or 4 carrier for the CVA if you need to use up free fighter factors). Unless you're at parity or better with the Coalition I generally think that getting that parity is high priority. YMMV.

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Thursday, April 09, 2020 - 07:25 am: Edit

Tough choices are being made (Romulans would love a 3rd CVN next turn....) and the CVA - it just so rocks!

Missing out on so many NCL's though is good news for me - not sure which I would prefer to face though - the CVA or 7 NCL's?

On downsubing - 2010 rules has very few permitted downsize options (hence why the Romulans stopped building WE's a while ago) - a CVA has three choices - Be a CVA, be a DN (DN+/DNG etc) or not at all!

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Friday, April 10, 2020 - 10:01 pm: Edit

Alliance turn 18 op move is underway. The Hydrans are bringing the fleet that briefly liberated their major planet back into supply.

The Feds are attacking every single Romulan fleet that is still in Fed space, plus the remaining Romulan border BAST and two minor planets (one in neutral zone and the Romulan one near the Gorn/Fed corner.

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Sunday, April 12, 2020 - 03:24 pm: Edit

Alliance turn 18 op move is done. Most of the battles are just the Alliance trying to grind down the Coalition fleets. There are also assaults on the last Romulan BATS on the Gorn border, the last Romulan BATS on the Fed border, one of the three remaining Klingon BATS on the Fed border, and two Klingon planets, both of which were previously devastated.

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Monday, April 13, 2020 - 05:09 pm: Edit

Haven't talked about dice for a while (they have been OK for both sides), bur A18 isn't nice for the Coalition.

First 6 combat rolls see the Alliance win..... 6 of them (with first 4 being 2 6's and 5'a).

Averages of 4.67 for the Alliance v 2.00 for the Coalition.

I haven't rolled above a 3

Didn't even get a good roll to cripple a Gorn ship and force the captured Falcon which mauled a Shock roll.


Cloak rolls at least are as good as the Alliance pursuit rolls (100% success so far).

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Tuesday, April 14, 2020 - 04:00 am: Edit

Hopefully, it isn't going to be a repeat of several turns ago.

Round 7 - another 6 for William and a 2 for me. (And another successful 50/50 chance for William on killing the key hull).

3 of 7 rolls for William have been 6's (all in fairly big combats).

7 wins in a row for William - I still haven't rolled above a 3.

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Tuesday, April 14, 2020 - 08:23 am: Edit

I really wish I didn't have to track dice....

So first 9 rounds of A18 - William has rolled higher in all 9 so far.

Average is
VBIR 2.55
Alliance 4.67
Coalition 2.11 (I finally rolled 'a 4').

It's just not the 1's and 6's - its everthing.

Worst 3 dice in a row for William is 11 (5/4/2 - best is 5/6/6!) - best 3 dice in a row for me is 7 (3/1/3).

Cloak Escapes and Pursuits remain 100% - and William gets his first capture (a F5)…. and I miss a 5/6 chance of doing damage in a persuit battle.

Dice once more are absolutely brutal on the Coalition.

The Romulans again though have taken the brunt of the dice mismatches.

By Richard Eitzen (Rbeitzen) on Tuesday, April 14, 2020 - 09:07 am: Edit

"I really wish I didn't have to track dice...."

Good news, you don't.

Past die rolls have no effect on future die rolls. Tracking them will not help develop better policies for how to conduct your strategy.

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Wednesday, April 15, 2020 - 02:40 am: Edit

Well, finally won 'round 10' - and then rolled double 1 for the next two battles!

We have also had our first drawn roll - double 2 where both sides did a fighting retreat (me to a kill a Fed FF and William to defend the said FF!.

Lots of flashy lights from both sides and the Fed FF lived (Fighter pilots on both sides didn't!).

We have also had our first failed pursuit for William and failed Cloak rolls.

Averages have slightly improved with Alliance at 4.14 and Coalition 2.36 (14 combat rounds).

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Wednesday, April 15, 2020 - 09:31 am: Edit

Well the walk didn't help and the first thing to say there is nothing William is doing wrong.

But once more, the dice just seem to be destroying the game.

Slim chance of direct killing a Gorn DN, I missed (need 5+ with no VBIR change).

Failed the Shock Roll (as I direct crippled) - so I have a 2/3rds failure rate (still 1 roll to make) on shocking.

…I catch the Alliance in the pursuit and then lose a 19 Ep SUP in exchange foe the crippled Gorn DN.

WIlliams gets the less than 8% chance of rolling 11+ on 2D6 (as Offensive cloak was also used).

Another 6 for William (I rolled a 2).

I don't think the Coalition in 18 turns have a 'good persuit' battle (Alliance have had 2 good pursuit battles this turn).

So in a battle I should win and should win well, Gorns lost 1 ship and 19.5 Ep's of Damage - and I lose 2 ships and 27.5 Ep's (or 29 if the SPF fails the shock roll) of Damage.

All down to absolutely horrendous dice.

What can I do (and yes, it is a sensible question)?

Never pursuit?
Never allow the Alliance to persue (i.e. self kill)?

What ever I do, the dice turn a good plan into a disaster.

There has been some luck for the Coalition, but probably 20 times as much luck for the Alliance so far in this game.

By Richard Eitzen (Rbeitzen) on Wednesday, April 15, 2020 - 10:16 am: Edit

"What ever I do, the dice turn a good plan into a disaster."

Relying on the dice to not roll too high or too low is not 'a good plan'.

Case in point, what happened to your SUP. If you always put valuable ships up that can be lost on an 11+ on 2D6, then you will occasionally lose those valuable ships. That's not bad luck. That's statistics.

Amend your policy and you'll do better.

Or complain about bad dice and don't change anything.

I've no sympathy.

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Wednesday, April 15, 2020 - 10:32 am: Edit

All fair points Richard - but William can and does put good ships on the line and I never roll well enough to kill them.

Case in point here.

In the initial battle line, I 'risked' 2 Condors - but 42.5% would have been needed to kill either (and as I picked BIR 3, VBIR would therefore have to go up to risk them - and if it did, it would increase the chance the Gorn DN would die).

On the line William put up, 37.5% would have got a Gorn DN - without a Mauler or 30% with a Mauler (which was used).

So would it be fair to say a little risk to me and a modest risk to the Alliance.

On the pursuit, I needed 25.0% - to get the crippled DN (5/6 chance at BIR 5) - so I go high on BIR (4), William picks 1 - and then the VBIR goes up 2 and he rolls a 6.

So - I get the crippled DN - but again, I get burnt by the VBIR and his dice.

When persued, William rolls generally well, when pursuing he generally rolls well,

As I said, I can't remember the last time 'I got lucky' (the death of the Kzinti CVS was due to a mistake, rather than good dice iIRC) in a pursuit and come to think of it, I don't think I have ever killed 3 Alliance ships in a pursuit and often only get 1 (due to rolling so low). Wiliam often has been able to kill 2 (or more, 5 I think is the record?) in a pursuit battle.

So basically, why should 1 side be able to risk what it wants and due to luck, get away with it - and other side either plays cautiously and does less damage - or normal but get unlucky far too often?

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Wednesday, April 15, 2020 - 10:59 am: Edit

When was the last time the Alliance got lucky on a major pursuit?

Coalition turn 17 - when they killed the Battle Tug!

"William got very luck in pursuit and killed a crippled Klingon Battle Tug (second one to die this turn)…. "

Other than the Kzinti CVS and this turns Gorn DN - I can't think of a another good Alliance hull to die in pursuit....

Coalition have lots stacks of Compot 10 ships..... (and lots oc CC's too) - probably 5+ more than they should done due to high VBIR's and high rolls.

By Richard Eitzen (Rbeitzen) on Wednesday, April 15, 2020 - 11:43 am: Edit

Paul, I only contend that if you adopt policies that put your ships at risk that it is silly to complain when they sometimes die.

I also contend it's silly to complain about bad dice when you can do nothing to control them. I seriously doubt that your luck over all the games you play is as bad as you make it out to be, but rather that you tend to have bad policies and when the dice roll badly for you, you suffer the consequences and seek to blame the dice for what is (at least sometimes) your own poor decisions (such as putting up a SUP when it's got a better than 1 in 12 of being destroyed).

Or maybe the supernatural does exist and is out to get you.

One of these.

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Wednesday, April 15, 2020 - 11:48 am: Edit

Just this turn the Feds missed a pursuit that would have led to the Coalition self-killing at least 2 ships and maybe 3.

There was another one last turn where the Feds and Gorns missed a pursuit where they had about 60 compot ready to pursue a Romulan fleet that was either all crippled or close to it.

There was another one on turn 16 or 17 where the Hydrans had a 1/3 chance of not losing a crippled NSC and a 1/3 chance of killing the pursuing mauler. They failed on both.

More to the point -- what is more likely? That multiple rollers have a bias? Or that there is another explanation?

By Richard Eitzen (Rbeitzen) on Wednesday, April 15, 2020 - 12:01 pm: Edit

The most likely thing is that the die rolls are random, within reasonable tolerances.

Some years ago I did a simplistic test of the PBEM die roller and had it do 10000 rolls of a d6 and then wrote a program to count each the results.
The chance of getting any particular number was pretty close to 1 in 6.

If one wants, one could do this sort of thing, copy all the numbers into your text buffer, paste them into an empty word document, then search for '1' '2' '3' and so on and it will tell you how many of the searched for number are present.

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Wednesday, April 15, 2020 - 02:32 pm: Edit

Well dice continue to hurt me.

After 22 rounds - average is 3.91 v 2.22.

That seems to be a significant difference on Standard Deviation......

It seems the dice just want to force me to either not fight in the smaller battles (just putting up 1 ship and not doing any damage) or putting up everything and losing a larger hull in exchange for getting a crippled Alliance Frigate.

(Last 2 battles, could have given up a E4 and a F5 - but fought and the dice forced me to kill the TGB and D5....)


So what do I do?


Including the 1 turn when I did roll well, but not the last 1 1/2 turns (when the dice did seem to be fairly equal), game averages are

VBIR 3.517 (Assuming 3.5 rolled in Fighting Retreats)
Coalition 3.417
Alliance 3.520

So 97 pips more over 946 rolls - which isn't too significant, but timing of good rolls and bad rolls (on both sides) isn't factored into that.

But if the average damage has been 25% - William will have done 3% more damage, which isn't insignificant.