Hydran economy, turn 19

Survey roll 12
Survey total 168
Survey EP 14
Offmap 17
Total before exhaustion 31
Percentage 0.75
Income 23.25

From last turn 5.75
Total Money 29

Repairs
Offmap 2

Builds
2RN 12

Conversions
3LN>3DE 3

Total spending 17
Remaining 12EP

Also: 7CP available

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Friday, April 24, 2020 - 04:28 pm: Edit

Federation economy, turn 19

Survey roll 27
Survey total 239
Survey EP 18
Offmap 6
Capital 59
Planets 35
Provinces 51
NZ 2.4
Conquered 1
Scrap F5 1.5

Income 173.9
From last turn -3.15
6th SB treasury 0.1
Total Money 170.85

Repairs
Earth 7.5
Near Earth 4.5
2nd 7
9th 8
Survey 7.5
Subtotal 34.5

Builds
12NCL 60
14FF 42
CC 9
DN+ 14
Skipped: CA

Subtotal 125

Conversions

NAC 1
6FFE 6
FFS 1
NVS 2

Subtotal 10

Total spent 169.5
Remaining after econ 1.35

Command points: 2+1=3

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Friday, April 24, 2020 - 04:31 pm: Edit

Gorn economy, turn 19

Survey roll 10
Survey total 50
Survey EP 4
Offmap 12
Capital 14
Planets 11
Provinces 20
NZ 3.4
Conquered 1

Income 65.4
From last turn 0.6

Total Money 66

Repairs
6th 3
SW 3
Gdhar III 8

Subtotal 14

Builds
DD, 3DDE 15
Shipyard (1/6) 15

Subtotal 30

Conversions
Gdhar III 2HDE 2
SE HDE 1
6th CL>BC 3
Offmap activate CL 2
Offmap CL>BC 3

Subtotal 11

Total spending 55

Money after Econ 11
Command points: 6+1=7

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Friday, April 24, 2020 - 04:33 pm: Edit

Items of note:
* The Hydrans get their first turn of real production
* The Gorns have their first turn of shipyard rebuild
* The Feds get their first income from a conquered planet (it's in the Romulan neutral zone).

By Stewart Frazier (Frazikar3) on Friday, April 24, 2020 - 08:01 pm: Edit

Hmmm, doesn't the old shipyard shut down once the new one is built??

By Richard Eitzen (Rbeitzen) on Friday, April 24, 2020 - 08:19 pm: Edit

Yes. They could build two RN by subbing one for a PAL if that's your question.

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Friday, April 24, 2020 - 09:20 pm: Edit

For a CC actually

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Saturday, April 25, 2020 - 03:55 am: Edit

Yep - the DG is subbed out for one RN and the 'CC' (LB or LM) subbed out for the other RN.

Does allow the Hydrans with a full shipyard to build 3 x RN's a year.


… and close to full builds for the Feds

Was hoping there would be a significant cut in production!

By Richard Eitzen (Rbeitzen) on Saturday, April 25, 2020 - 09:31 am: Edit

Pretty sure the Hydrans can do 4RN a year. Another thing they can do is sub CWs for CAs.

By Thomas Mathews (Turtle) on Saturday, April 25, 2020 - 10:05 am: Edit

2xRN per turn max or 4xRN per year.

RN as scheduled on spring turns.
RN for DG on fall turns.
RN for PAL or CC on the appropriate spring and fall turns.

However, you will need command ships both for building fleets of high compot and and for their higher compot. I can see downsubbing the RN for the PAL builds. I would not reduce the CC to a RN unless I needed more money for another DW or FF for pin count.

By Richard Eitzen (Rbeitzen) on Saturday, April 25, 2020 - 11:20 am: Edit

I think if the Hydrans don't suffer serious command ship losses that they don't normally need to build very many more.

They can start turn three with four command 10 ships and seven command nine ships. Considering the small size of their likely theater of operations, you don't need much more.

I generally would at least build a second and third paladin (the one on turn four is heavily discounted and you can build another at a discount instead of the extremely expensive Iron Count).

Considering the limited income of the Hydrans, I'd tend to want to use EPs to expand their SEQ total over a little more compot making CCs. If you DO want more compot at the expense of EPs, one might look at the ragnar class or the BG capable PG-C 7(3) that is freely substitutable for HRs and TRs.

***

It all depends. Generally with competent Coalition play the Hydrans can expect to be at lest pushed into the SW corner of the map, in which case they will probably do fine with a few command ships as there won't be a lot of battle hexes (even more so if they are pushed offmap).

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Saturday, April 25, 2020 - 04:34 pm: Edit

Please remember we are only playing 2010 Rules...

So no RN for the PAL (so max 3 RN's per year)
No Discounted Paladin on turn 4.
No Battlegroups (and no Pegasus's!)

Only Paladin allowed Sub is to the OV from Y180+

William is maxing out Ship Equivalents - and 'fake carriers'

By Richard Eitzen (Rbeitzen) on Saturday, April 25, 2020 - 05:00 pm: Edit

Nod, forgot about your rules set.

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Monday, April 27, 2020 - 09:01 pm: Edit

Alliance turn 19 op move is done. The Hydrans did . . . precisely nothing! Most of their fleet is offmap. They have one fleet on the map with no supply source other than the special tug. They chose not to try to bring anything else onto the map during op movement.

The Fed/Klingon/Kzinti front features a fairly typical series of Alliance counterattacks. They are trying to retake a bunch of planets and to kill some province raiders.

The real action is once again on the Romulan front. The aptly-named Gorn Vengeance Fleet is attacking the out-of-supply Romulans at their capital. Two crippled Condors are at risk there.
The Gorns are also attacking the neutral zone planet 4309, which has a lot of Romulan crips.

The Feds have a pretty big attack on Romulan minor 4313 as well as two attacks on devastated Romulan-held planets. The Romulans do have two reserves that can reach 4313, one with 7 ships and the other with 3 ships. If they don't send the 7-ship reserve, the planet will fall. If they do send it, the situation is unclear, though they can probably hold if they send both. As always, the reserves also have other potential targets, which Paul may or may not deem to be more important.

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Tuesday, April 28, 2020 - 10:34 am: Edit

Paul reserved in such a way that multiple battles have the potential to last several rounds. For example, he sent the 7-ship reserve to 4313, but not the 3-ship one. There is also a battle at planet 2610 where the Feds have a whole lot of crips. He unpinned a reserve and sent part of it there, which means the battle could go either way. Furthermore, even if the Feds are losing, it may be in their interest to extend the battle for a while so as to leave the Klingons without much of a pursuit force.

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Tuesday, April 28, 2020 - 04:34 pm: Edit

I really hate doing this....but the dice are just unbelievable.

Alliance haven't rolled well - average of just over 3.

Coalition average is 1.6.

Over 50% of the Coalition rolls have been 1's and the highest has been a 3.

(7 rolls so far)

Plus a failed Offensive Cloak (and no success).

50/50 on Cloaked Withdrawals

How can one side do anything with such horrendous rolls?

(It's not as if the Coalition have rolled well or anything - it's just constant out rolling by the Alliance).

By Richard Eitzen (Rbeitzen) on Tuesday, April 28, 2020 - 04:50 pm: Edit

The dice hate you, obviously.

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Wednesday, April 29, 2020 - 04:57 am: Edit

Yep - totally illogical yet it just keeps happening.

Last 3 turns have been very very brutal - hate to think how many more Coalition ships would be alive or uncrippled with average dice on both sides.

I thought the 0.7 average Pip differential on A18 was bad....

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Wednesday, April 29, 2020 - 08:10 am: Edit

Well finally won a round on round 9.

Dice are still far to painful though - basically William rolls enough to kill 'far more than average (he just got another 1/3rd chance in a battle)' and I fail more often than average.

So a 1/6 chance (unlikely I accept) chance of the second Condor living and 11/12 chance of it not being captured.

What happened?

So 6 or so dead Coalition hulls - and William has captured a K5S and a Condor on this turn.

I have to say, I think my horrible dice and Williams amazing dice are about to break this game.... my enjoyment value is close to zero (again).

Cloaks are about the only area where the Coalition is rolling average (although where Offensive Cloak work - William rolled enough to invalidate the -1, and kill the target still).

Doesn't matter what I do - the dice just say 'no' to me and 'yes' to Wlliam

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Thursday, April 30, 2020 - 04:24 pm: Edit

Done a bit of analysis on the dice : -

Survey (top to bottom)
Lyrans 3.51 (57/200)
Kzinti 3.44 (57/196)
Federation 3.41 (70/239)
Hydrans 3.31 (51/168)
Romulans 3.25 (20/65)*
Gorns 3.125 (16/50)
Klingons 3.08 (36/111)

* = Romulans only got 2 ships off map for their first rolls.

B10-1 - 3.08 (13/40 - Rolled exactly 40)

Pursuits
Coalition 23 Attempts, 13 Success&, 7 6's rolled
Alliance 85 Attempts, 62 Success, 15 6's rolled

(Some Attempts had less than 6 ships so a 75% success level assumed would be 17 average successes for the Coalition and 61 for the Alliance).

Shock rolls - haven't tracked but I think its 2 passes and 3 failures (all were fairly recent)

Haven't tracked Gorn Assaults - but the ones I did it was 2 success out of 6 attempts.

Captures - again not fully tracked, but Coalition captures of 2 x Kz-FF, EFF, 2 x CU, HN, F-FFE and Kz CV happened - Alliance have captured 3 x Full Maulers, 2 x FH, the Condor and perhaps 5-10 FF/F5's.

There must have been some D5's captured too.

Small Scale Combat - haven't tracked them but I don't think the Coalition have done well.

Normal combat (1016 rolls)

Averages are
VBIR 3.524
Coal 3.406
Alliance 3.515


So Survey - its pretty much a wash....

B10s - below average
Gorn Assault - Above average
Shock Rolls - below Average
Cloak Rolls - below average
Coalition Pursuit - horribly below average
Alliance Pursuits - pretty much bang on average
Coalition Capture - Below average (on numbers and quality)
Alliance Capture - Above Average (and massively above average on Quality)


Ignoring timing (William can comment on that - but I think the Alliance has had generally better general luck - high rolls when needed and when a lower roll is still sufficient, but I would say the Coalition perhaps got 2 'crucial but not necessarily high' rolls - IIRC 1 Kzinti SB was direct killed once crippled, and the Federation 3rd SB was also direct crippled - both were 50/50 or better, so not unlikely to occur - and the Alliance missed 1 'crucial but not necessarily lucky roll - with the BATS to SB upgrade over 1401 - IIRC, it as a 1/3rd chance of direct crippling it) - so perhaps fair to say an unlucky roll was needed to avoid success rather than a very lucky roll.

By Richard Eitzen (Rbeitzen) on Thursday, April 30, 2020 - 06:11 pm: Edit

I think all that shows is that random number generators generate random numbers.

Thanks for that.

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Friday, May 01, 2020 - 06:08 am: Edit

My take is that it would be easy to have incomplete data. Not on purpose, but if a datum points towards a desired conclusion, it is less likely to be forgotten.

The fact that the conclusion is apparently the same in multiple games reinforces the point.

Survey is the one area where missing data would be inherently noticeable.

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Friday, May 01, 2020 - 01:47 pm: Edit

Well, normal combat dice have been more balanced - but William can't miss at the moment in SSC.

Best 4 results for the Alliance has been 12/11/11/10 and I think the lowest they rolled was a 5 (so I only ended up crippled).

Best 4 results for the Coalition?

11 and probably 3 6's.

Latest was 12 v 2 - other way round the D6 would have lived.

So on SSC, I think I am down 3 ships and Alliance is up 1 (on what fair dice would have killed) - so a 4 ship swing in losses this turn.

If the dice had been the other way round - I bet I would have been up 2 ships and Alliance down 1.

But no - zero luck for the Coalition and lots of luck for the Alliance - again.

Dice averages for normal combat is at least 3 (Coalition) v 3.42 (Alliance) now - but I would happy reverse all the dice rolls for this turn.

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Saturday, May 02, 2020 - 05:30 am: Edit

Well, thank goodness A19 is now over.

Firstly, I think it was the turn with the greatest dice imbalance of the game, not only in values but in timing too.

End results are

VBIR 3.67
Coalition 3.09
Alliance 3.61

SSC results was even wider (8 dead Coalition v 0 dead Alliance)

Pursuits was even wider (Coalition have now rolled 3 6's in a row for pursuits - 1/3rd of the Coalition Pursuit rolls have been 6's)

And captures even wider.
3 Coalition hulls Captured (Condor, K5S and D5) and 0 Alliance hulls captured.

I bet 25 Coalition hulls died and 12 Alliance hulls - William will not doubt give full details.

The Coalition lost several battles they should have won, due to poor dice and the Alliance lost zero battles they should have won.

I can't think of a single 'good roll' for the Coalition, that resulted in an above average result of a battle (which includes a better hull being killed say).

Truly a horrific dice turn for the Coalition.

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Saturday, May 02, 2020 - 05:41 pm: Edit

Turn is over!

The past few turns have seen the Romulans making gains against the Gorns, while the Feds were advancing on their flank, trying to make themselves sufficiently annoying to take some heat off the Gorns.

Thus far, this has failed utterly, as the Romulans have studiously ignored the advancing Feds. But this time the Feds turned it up several notches. We'll see if they manage to distract the Romulans or not.