Archive through September 07, 2020
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Archive through September 07, 2020
Federation Economy, turn 24
Survey roll 19
Survey total 347
Survey EP 0
Offmap 0
Capital 53
Planets 14
Provinces 34
NZ 1.2
Conquered
9th SB treasury 0.1
Income 102.3
From last turn 0.65
Total Money 102.95
Repairs
Earth 22
Near Earth 16
6th 11.5
9th 5.5
BATS 6
Subtotal 61
Builds
13FF 39
Conversions
NVS 2
Total spent 102
Remaining after econ 0.95
Also: 1+1=2CP.
2715 5EP, spent 3 on supply, 2EP remaining
3415 1EP, none spent
Survey Grid 30
Repairs 8
Build FFE 4
Convert 2NEC 2
Remaining 16
Gorn Economy, turn 24
Survey roll 10
Survey total 93
Survey EP 8
Offmap 12
Capital 24
Planets 6
Provinces 25
NZ 2
Income 77
From last turn 8.6
Total Money 85.6
Repairs
Gdhar 2 4
Gdhar 3 3
Offmap 2.5
Subtotal 9.5
Builds
3DD, DE 13
Shipyard (6/6) 15
Tug (sub for accelerated BC) 9
Subtotal 37
Conversions
SE HV, DE 15
Total spending 61.5
Money after Econ 24.1
Command Points: 7+1=8
Tholian economy, turn 24
Balance 2.1
Income 26.8
Total 28.9
Repairs 11
MB>BATS 15 (at Klingon major)
Remaining 2.9
Command Points: 1+1=2
Looks like the Kzinti and Hydrans this turn are going for Quality over Quantity.
Not sure who will complete their repair bill first - but wow - Feds make a big dent on theirs this turn.
Atleast, other than the Carrier, they only build/converted FF's.
Last turns offensive really hurt them.
But that's about the limit of the good news - with the Gorn ship yard now completed - quality ships will start flowing again.
Well, the horrible dice over 2306 may be about to bite the Coalition in a big way.
William has got enough forces around the flanks to threaten 1910 and 2214 - which may cut off the bulk of Coalition forces in Federation space.
If 2306 had fallen - there would have been no retrograde points in range.
Lets hope the generous Alliance Dice gods see fit to balance it out with some good key Coalition rolls.
Well, about the only saving grace so far is a modest number of the 6's William has rolled have been for persuits.
Outside big Compot battles - I am actually rolling reasonably well.
In big compot battles though - I think the averages are 4.11 v 2.55 - basically a repeat of 2306 last turn! (9 dice rolls).
Just can't roll good with over 80 compot..
Had a good chance of holding 2509 (had 20% more Compot in the final round.... alas a 6 v 2 scuppered the chance of holding the planet
Well, William's luck is amazing.
Over 2106 - I had a better chance of holding it than losing it - and after 2 rounds I thought my luck was holding - finally 3 rounds blew that and William retook the planet.
Even worse, in a very small battle which became relevant (if he lost, he would have bunch of crippled ships cut off).
Although William only rolled 3.5 as an average - he got the 2 6's at the relevant point (6,1,1,6).
I proceeded to roll 1,1,1 and not a 1, but a 2!
On the basis William had to win - I was expecting William would have to self kill a few ships to win the battle.
Needed to roll a 2 on round 3 to kill something ( and I would have then ran)...and a 3 on round 4 would have forced William to either cripple the CVA or for William to self kill something better than a FF.
I think that's the worst serious of rolls for 1 side.... since turn 0.
Last 10 rolls for me have seen 4 1's for me (to be fair William did roll 3 1's, but he did roll 3 5's and 2 6's in the same batch).
So I basically Self killed a Lyran FF and crippled a BC, DD, FF, and DWS... to kill an already crippled Fed-FF.
(The CVA was able to burn all 15 fighters).
So a summary of the dice so far.
I am good at rolling 6's for irrelevant battles.
I am really good at rolling 1's for relevant or large battles.
William rolls enough to win (with 1 exception - although it was probably a 50/50 and he lost it)
For once - Persuits have only been 'average' on me (where William catches- he still rolls well and I roll badly!).
Current serious of battles - I haven't won a round in 7 rolls...
Bang goes my hope for more luck than William this turn....
Well, the dice gods continue to hate the Coalition.
In the next batch of 8 rolls - I roll 4 more 1's (atleast I did roll 3 6's - alas timing remains Williams friend when I roll well).
So that's 8 1's in 18 dice!!
(William is rolling pretty much 50% of the time a 3 and nearly 50% of the time a 6)
In SSC - he has gone back to 'king of the right roll' - timing and numbers he is pretty much 100% (only time he rolled average was against 6 Fighters..... - so they lived).
Good example - +4 v -4 combat (so 6+ needed too kill me)…. rolls are 11 v 3.
Other way round we would have both retreated...…
Needed, 4 or less ,5 or less and 6 or less in 3 ship based SSC's to live (and so was expecting to live in 1), and failed in all three.
Pursuits are back to 100% success again - and WIlliam got another capture (fortunately, just a FF).
Just the Hydran front Mega Fleet battle to resolve now.
What do people suggest I sacrifice?
Paul, I suggest sacrificing your opponent. It can't hurt to try.
Well - William came, stayed 2 rounds and ran.
Dice was 1 v 4 and 1 v 6.
Best I could do was though was cripple a RN (an yes, missed killing it by 1 pip!) and kill a CU though!!
I crippled a CC, CV, 2 x CWE, FF and lost 2 PF's!
Ep wise - the Hydrans won!!
I did get back to Hydran Front FRD park (1 FRD!), so can repair the 4CV group easily!
And A24 ends.
I think William will be pretty happy with the results.
Large number of Coalition cut off - Check
Large number of Coalition killed - Check
Alliance losses modest - Check
About the only minor failures was failing to recapture 1 Minor planet in Federation space (is cut off though) and BATS 2215 lived - just!
Hydrans probably are happy to be off map with low losses?
Deadcounts are:
K-10
L-8 (one captured)
R-9
F-7
Z, H, G - 1 each
So +17 for the alliance. The only two dead ships that might not be considered small were a Romulan KE and FH.
That +17 probably means a small gain for the Alliance in shipcount for the turn. We built a lot fewer than the Coalition.
Positional gains are significant. I failed to send enough Feds to one minor planet, so they didn't retake it. That will give the Coalition a partial grid with probably 2-3EP. They will have to choose between paying for Orion smuggling or having a bunch of ships OOS on their turn.
Both sides have a lot of crips in the Federation.
Alliance turn 24 is done. The old adage says "He who defends everything, defends nothing." The Feds are putting this to the test as they have fleets defending 23 separate planets and bases. They were not able to remain as forward deployed as they would have liked.
They have four reserves. Each has three ships, including at least two FF. They needed some help from their allies to even reach that size.
The Gorn reserves are better, with 10 ships between the two reserves. The Kzinti reserves are also three ships each, but at least their quality is pretty good.
As an aside, I've found that with the alliance, a full reserve is frequently overkill. You may send it somewhere with the feeling that half of it could do the job. I'd normally prefer roughly 5-8 ships, but this time the Feds needed everything they could get for their attacks. And even a weak reserve can swing a battle.
Here are the end-of-turn fleet counts:
| | Uncrippled | Crips | Total |
| L | 120 | 82 | 202 (+0) |
| K | 215 | 134 | 349 (-6) |
| R | 89 | 42 | 131 (-11) |
| Coalition | 424 (-38) | 258 (+21) | 682 (-17) |
| | Uncrippled | Crips | Total |
| Z | 48 | 11 | 59 (+4) |
| H | 44 | 1 | 45 (-6) |
| F | 195 | 87 | 282 (-13) |
| G | 82 | 18 | 100 (+2) |
| Alliance | 369 (-30) | 117 (+17) | 486 (-13) |
As usual, the numbers in parentheses are the changes from two turns ago.
These are not so good for the Alliance. Their net gain rate of 2 ships a turn over the last two turns is nowhere near enough to get to parity by the end of the game. Their uncrippled gain is only a little better.
Things are likely to improve, with the Gorn shipyard coming online next turn and the third way the following turn. There is also stage two of exhaustion, which the Feds will escape for a few turns as they were at limited war on turns 7-9. Also there are 40EP that couldn't be spent last turn. When they are spent, ship counts should move back in favor of the Alliance.
C25 Starts
Normal Builds for the Lyrans - but no Heavy Cruisers for the Klingons (everything else is built) and only 1 heavy Cruiser for the Romulans.
Klingons do pay for the Orions for 'next day delivery' - and so 15 Klingon ships behind Federation lines get supply (and 36 replacement fighters).
With a Lyran supply Tug in the north and Klingon supply Tug in the South, the bulk of Coalition forces are put back in supply.
Operational movement is progressing. Thus far, the Coalition is attacking Fed minor planets 2106, 2509, and 2715. An assault on Earth this turn seems increasingly unlikely.
Fortunately, William doesn't know about the 12 Cloaked B10's which I believe are slowly working there way towards Earth (I did send a big thank you note to the Romulans for the Cloaks).
Now being Cloaked - I can't see them either - anyone know where they are?
On visible ships.
The Gorns surprised me in reacting to a move and I haven't decided what to really do due to that move....
The Federation once again receive the brunt of the Coalition attacks - with attacks in pretty much all areas.
Lots of ships still to move though.
Op move has ended.
Pretty much every planet outside 2 hexes of Earth is under attack.
The bulk of Coalition forces will be in supply for combat (those out of supply generally moved to battles where they could get into supply - although afew ships were not within range of such a battle).
Overall - 1 Major SB assault plus 2 probably pinning SB assaults.
By avoiding the Federation and Gorn capitals (again 
), the huge number of Coalition cripples isn't slowing the offensive down too much.
Hydrans have no reserves (and combats!), Kzinti have 1 available, Federation 1 and Gorns 2 (rest are all pinned).
Hopefully, the Federation economic pain level will go up another level....
Well, the dice continue to really not play fair.
Offensive Cloak fails against 90+ compot Gorn line
After 19 rounds
VBIR 3.31
Coalition 3.0
Alliance 3.94
5 1's for me so far (and no 1's for William).
2 6's for me v 4 for William
Whats hurting - is again I roll well in small battles (was up 2 pips on the first 5 rolls)…. and big battles, I roll basically 1 to 3....
Just had a really good chance to hurt (what will become an Out of Supply Alliance fleet) and VBIR drops 2 AND I roll a 1 (William rolled a 5).
Killed a crippled Kz-FF and Williams crippled a Fed-FF and had to cripple a BC and CW....
It's probably not costing me any more dead hulls (as William has dropped the damage quiet often), but 1 or more cripples in every battle.
Dice - please return the favour to me at some point.
Paul, the dice have done that, this very turn. One can choose to see it, or not.
Hi WIlliam
Not sure what I have missed?
Pursuit - Both have had 100% success (1 for me v 2 for you)
Cloak - 1 Success (93 compot line for you), 1 Failure (98 compot line for you) and 2 NA
Main battles - did OK in the first 5 battles (up 2 PIPS - I don't think it affected any battle though) and last 14 rolls - dire and it affected two battles (in your favour - 3912 (probably only had a 40/60 chance of winning?) and 2306 (33/67 chance of winning?) - so the slim/modest chance vanished).
Over 2106 though - had a 1/36 chance of killing the crippled DN - and I got the other 1/36 chance!
The single relevant round you rolled low in a Persut and missed the crippled D6D (after getting the 50/50 to direct cripple it).
So pursuit - we both have done badly but in main battles your ahead.
SSC - You got lucky in 1 (I rolled 6 so your FF lived) and I got lucky in 1 (rolled the 12, needed 10+ to kill both). Other battles you needed 8+ or higher to do something and missed it - so pretty much honours even (or marginally in my favour) on SSC.
I would gladly flip all the dice rolls 
What was the (proabalistic) expected value of the number of Alliance ships killed in SSC? What was the actual number?
Well, with most of the easy battles done, the results are mixed.
Romulans failed over 3912 - and so the Kosnett Fleet has a base to operate from, rather being cut off as planned.
The main Gorn Reserve fleet saved the 4904 BATS and 5004 minor planet (which I could have normally retreated onto).
4309 and 4705 was 'liberated' though
In Federation space, so far, 1 Major planet and 6 minor planets have been captured (all previously had been capture/devasted etc) - plus a Neutral Minor Planet.
The True Patriach was able to liberate 1802 from the Baron's Forces.
A large number of Kzinti ships are out of supply - and 2 modest Federation fleets are in a Partial Grid (plus Kosnett).
Lyrans - no dead yet
Klingons - D6 and E4
Romulan - SPF, WE, 2 x SK
Kzinti - 3 x FF
Hydrans - no dead (and none will die!)
Federation - 2 x NCL, CL, 2 x FF, FFE
Gorn - BD
10 battles remain to be done.
Remember, there are lies, •••• lies, and then statistics.
The Coalition needs you help.
There must be a rule which allows the Tholians to switch sides, if the Federation employs this tactics
"We will fight to the last Tholian"
It seems, we have found out why they don't trust anyone!
And C25 combat has ended.
1 previously uncaptured Federation planet was captured!
In total, the Federation lost 1 Major planet and 10 Minor planets.
4806 was a tough fight - William declined to direct (after killing the Mini-Mauler) - and so a CON lived....and the B10 avoided being crippled - if he had directed, the SB might have died.....
Lyrans - No dead
Klingons - 2 x D6, AD5, 2 x F5 and E4
Romulan - 2 x SPF, WE, 2 x SK
Kzinti - 3 x FF
Hydrans - no dead (and none will die!)
Federation - 4 x NCL, CL, 5 x FF and FFE
Gorn - BD and DE
Tholians (Yes, I know they don't really count) - 2 x DN and 3 x PCE
The bulk of Coalition forces are in supply, but a modest Klingon group will be Out of Supply at the end of turn C25 (around 3210) - as the supply Tug supplying them has got re-cut off.
A25 will see them back in supply though through their newly captured planets.
Federation forces are cut off in various pockets all over the place.