Remember the MacArthur (IIC).

The first Alliance attack on a Coalition Capital occurs this turn with the Gorns raiding 4613.

Definitely only a raid - as the Gorns are outnumbered at the moment - and thats before any of the reserve ships go elsewhere!

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Sunday, February 06, 2022 - 05:11 pm: Edit

Alliance turn 27 op move is done. For once, Paul has a lot of choices with his reserves. In the past, they have tended to be forward, and we have pinned a lot of them. This time, they are further back, and we didn't pin a single one.

The Gorns and Feds are attacking two planets in Romulan space, plus an SB and a BATS. There is also a raid on Romulus. Romulus will not be captured even if all available reserves move out. However, it is possible that if all reserves move out, the amount of damage done in the hex will increase.

As usual, the Feds are trying to retake all of the Fed planets that are in Coalition hands.

The Kzinti are spreading out over the Northern part of their space. The Coalition seems to have drawn a line in the sand at 1406 and 1507, both of which are heavily defended, and both of which we are staying well away from. If these forces remain in the Kzinti region, we may find it a challenge to stay on the map.

The Hydrans were mostly just looking to cause trouble. They retook an NZ hex. They have one force squashing a province raider and a second force in a highly advantageous battle. Their third force is in a battle where they can probably get a slight advantage in the first round but after that will need to run away. The Lyrans have a reserve in the region which could move one of the battles more towards the Coalition favor -- but perhaps still not horrible for the Hydrans.

The Tholians are attacking like there's no tomorrow!

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Monday, February 07, 2022 - 09:18 am: Edit

Reserves have been dispatched.

3 planets in Kzinti space will be protected against Rebel Kzinti Forces.

4812 should be saved by about 50% of the Romulan reserves, with the balance staying in 4613.

Hppefully the damage will be limited to fighters and PF's in 4613!

Alas, we will be giving up a lot of space in Federation territory though (all caused by a single Fed FFS getting the main Kzinti Fleet back into supply!)

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Tuesday, February 08, 2022 - 01:35 pm: Edit

Well so far - the dice have generally been very very very bloody.

Lots of VBIR 6's and generally high rolls for both sides.

Alas, I picked the wrong option with a battered fleet - should have gave up the cripples.... and after two punishing pursuits meant I had to self kill 3 x D5 and a E4A - along with crippling a Carrier Tug, D5P and a C8V.

Would have only probably lost a AD5 and 2 x D5 (ships already crippled) - accepting would have done no real damage - as could have fought with just a crippled D5 (and probably lost a D5 and AD5 in pursuit as William did succeed).

Atleast would have had 18 Fighters then for the next battle and probably would have limited damage to a cripple or two.


You live and learn!

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Tuesday, February 08, 2022 - 01:40 pm: Edit

Elesewhere - Williams remains near perfect on SSC's - although 2 ships did escape the initial SSC battles (and William rolled 6's for both persuits) - one got fighting Retreated over and he rolled a 12 in a 0 v -1 fight.

I rolled a 6 - so got nowt.

Other way round would have seen the crippled f5 retreat and Fed CL killed.


So far, SSC has seen 2 Coalition ships die and no damage to the Alliance.

Classic case of right roll at right time for the Alliance - and nothing at the right time for the Coalition (the two 10's rolled got precisely 1 casualty and the Feds retreated as he killed me).

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Tuesday, February 08, 2022 - 05:26 pm: Edit

18 combats done - and after a good start - dice have flipped

For once though, it's probably the VBIR which has hurt the Coalition (I want low damage)...

VBIR is 4.56!
Coalition 3.16
Alliance 3.11

It took 15 rounds to get VBIR to drop.

8 of 18 rounds have been +2 though....

Timing though seems to be still with the Alliance - another two rounds where I rolled badly and missed by 1 damage the ability to kill anything!

SSC remains 100% one sided.

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Tuesday, February 08, 2022 - 07:17 pm: Edit

Paul will complain about the dice as surely as the Sun rises in the East. But I think the real reason for the ship kill imbalance (currently at 22 Coalition dead vs. 1 Fed and 2 Tholians) is the 3rd way. The Feds CVA lines, of which there are many, are typically 100+ compot. The Coalition have wisely responded by not putting anything with 8+ compot anywhere other than the form box. Furthermore, the Klingons have a shortage of escorts. This typically results in a Coalition compot of 70-odd. Not only that, but it may take 22 damage to kill anything in the Fed line (CVBG with 6 escorts, a few big ships, and an NCL in form was a recent example). For a 70-odd compot line, that's a tall order. Then the Coalition needs to retreat due to the compot imbalance. They frequently have a bunch of crips in the hex who are attempting to return home from prior adventures. So their compot in the pursuit is even worse.

I don't think any of this is a problem with the game system. If the Alliance manage to survive until the 3rd way comes online, a big boost seems highly appropriate.

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Wednesday, February 09, 2022 - 02:51 am: Edit

Sorry to disagree (partially) - but I feel the dice are valid concern - in SSC.

A good roll in SSC - but at the wrong time means you get no damage (I have rolled 3 10's so far).

The flip side is one side generally rolls 'enough' to get sufficient casualties to kill the enemy.

And over lets just say the last 5 turns - the inbalance has been totally brutal on the Coalition.

When was the last Alliance ship killed in SSC?

Yes, the 'attacker' will generally have a SSC in their favour and last turn there was a +1, +3 and +4 in my favour. This turn there was the fighting retreat of 0 v -1.

Not one single Alliance ship died - and at best a single battle got 2 casualties.

On comparable battles this turn - it's been 2 battles with 2 casualties on me - and 2 battles with ships dying.

That in itself making a huge inbalance - i.e. the Coalition probably should have lost 1 or 2 less hulls per turn and the Alliance lost 2 or 3 more hulls per turn.

A 3 or 4 ship turn 'swop' is basically occurring - purely due to the Alliance rolling well and rolling well at the right time.


But I do agree the Third Way is a massive effect

Weirdly, the most 'annoying' benefit (from the Coalition point of view) is the 1 replacement Fighter Factor per non-FFE escort - and so the average Federation line has 2-6 replacement fighter factors!

You think the enemy has self killed enough fighters to lessen the pain of the retreat - and half get replaced!

And I agree - the Third Way is needed - I am just trying to work out why anyone would go the PF route

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Wednesday, February 09, 2022 - 08:12 am: Edit

At what point does rolling 75% of Coalition pursuit dice as '6' get ridiculous?

A chance of doing some good damage (Kzinti had no fighters left) gone - again.

(49/EW with 4 F and 6 PF's v 65/0 - no attrition units)

Probably 4 Eps of Damage lost v 1.5 Eps of Damage not gained.

By Peter Bakija (Bakija) on Wednesday, February 09, 2022 - 08:41 am: Edit

One of the greatest upgrades from the expansion rules (other than a significantly improved game balance, generally speaking) is the Fast ships, so that you can arrange to avoid missing pursuits.

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Wednesday, February 09, 2022 - 09:20 am: Edit

Sure, but there were other, more consequential rolls in that same battle. What are the consequences if those go the other way?

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Wednesday, February 09, 2022 - 01:19 pm: Edit

Fair to say - both sides in normal combat are now rolling 'poorly' (averages are VBIR 4.71, 3.23 for the Coalition and 3.14 Alliance), but at times have rolled better than the enemy.

I won the last two rounds over 1202 prior to missing the persuit (4 v 2 and 6 v 4) - previous three rounds I rolled 3 1's v 6/6/4 though.

I must have rolled 'good' somewhere through - as in the last 12 rolls, I have had 7 1's! (Coalition rolled 3'1s!).

Looks like 5 6's and 8 1's for me in 21 rounds (4 1's and 3 6's for William).

Looks like I roll good or bad... and not much in between

Timing on good dice though has been on the Alliance side though (couple of good rolls for me caused no real damage - and I think that only happed to the Alliance once?)

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Thursday, February 10, 2022 - 11:59 am: Edit

Did a quick look on the odds of killing ships in SSC and it's basically a 72% chance to get 6 or more on 2D6.

i.e. Assuming one side is on +4.

William is up to 5 of 7 rolls this turn getting the required roll - and achieved a double casualty (91% chance) in two of the other battles and hit the 42% chance of killing one of the ships which survived the 6+ roll.

So that is a 6.73% chance of getting 6 of the 7 ships.

Currently I am on a 100% failure to kill ships (and have been on that level for several turns).


So just this turn - that is probably 2 Coalition ships killed, which on average shouldn't have been - and certainly 1 or 2 Alliance ship should have been crippled (if not killed, with the Fighting Retreat CL).

The worst thing about SSC is timing makes a huge difference - the average this turn is 7.625 for William and 7.125 for me.

So not a huge 'out rolling', but rolling the right number at the right time seems to be a 90%+ certainty for William and a 0% certainty for me.

I can't believe such a small difference could have such a large effect, but with probably 25 Coalition ships killed in SSC over the last 3 turns v 0 Alliance ships - the evidence alas supports the horrible timing and rolls the Coalition has had in SSC, is just not ending.

(Normal combat dice, as mentioned have been much more varied and equal for both sides).

By Peter Bakija (Bakija) on Thursday, February 10, 2022 - 12:59 pm: Edit

You can always avoid SSC. Attack with 4 ships (2D7, 2E4 is 24 compot, which is enough to kill a lone FF on 20% damage (i.e. BIR 4+1, at -2 on VBIR, and rolling a 1). And if you are set upon by a reserve, you lose an E4 and run away.

SSC is the least optimal way to kill frigates. Only use SSC when you are forced to use SSC (i.e. raids, which you aren't using in this game). Send 4 ship groups to fight pairs of FF pr whatever. If you end up with a 4 ship group vs another 4 ship group, make sure yours is bigger, and has fighters (D7C, FV, 2E4 is, what, 25 compot?), so your opponent won't want to have a 4 on 4 stand up fight.

You are 100% correct that SSC has bad odds for killing opponent ships, generally speaking (i.e. you have a roughly 30% chance of failure). So stop fighting in SSC. As you can always avoid using SSC.

By Mike Erickson (Mike_Erickson) on Thursday, February 10, 2022 - 04:34 pm: Edit

Some interesting 4 ship groups at different levels of strength:

2xD6V, F5V, F5L: 36 COMPOT, 14 fighters
D6V, 2xF5V, F5L: 33 COMPOT, 13 fighters
2xF5V, E4V, E4: 26 COMPOT, 11 fighters
2xD6V, E4V, E4: 32 COMPOT, 13 fighters
D6V, F5V, E4V, E4: 29 COMPOT, 12 fighters
3xF5V, F5L: 30 COMPOT, 12 fighters

--Mike

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Thursday, February 10, 2022 - 06:29 pm: Edit

All A27 battles are done except the Romulus assault. Both fleets have their problems here. The Romulans don't have a good flagship, while the Gorns suffer from a lack of depth.

Not sure how far the Gorns should or will press the battle.

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Friday, February 11, 2022 - 02:25 am: Edit

Peter

Can't disagree - but you can't send 4 ships 'everywhere' (or get them into 1 hex via reacting etc).

William is also getting more adept in forcing 'unseen retreat hexes' allowing Alliance forces to retreat over more and more Coalition forces.

(This turn I had to retreat from one battle - which amended what I thought would be a Fighting Retreat Hex into a normal retreat, as the equal supply range hex become longer in distance!)

Mike - all good - but thats alot of fighters in small battles!

It's fair to say I have sent alot of fighters to the Hydran front to help reduce the pinnning battle damage that happens (and we had 2 this turn).

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Friday, February 11, 2022 - 02:28 am: Edit

And something did make me laugh last night on dice.

Played Formula De at my games club - 8 people played.... and I didn't get beyond the first corner.

Rolled 2 1's in the first 3 collision damage checks I had to roll. (For those that don't know, it involved rolling a D20 - and you don't want a 1!)

I think I had rolled 4 movement dice before my Nephew 'took me out'!

By Peter Bakija (Bakija) on Friday, February 11, 2022 - 07:44 am: Edit

Paul wrote:
>>Can't disagree - but you can't send 4 ships 'everywhere' (or get them into 1 hex via reacting etc).>>

I mean, you probably can? It's worth trying, as, well, SSC has terrible odds, where 4 ship groups generally don't. I mean, if you end up forced into SSC once in a while, sure, but you should probably aim to avoid SSC as often as possible. In my current game, we generally only ever see SSC when it is forced by raids (i.e. a CF is beating up a POL); province raiders/garrison forces/whatever are generally just beaten up by 4 ship groups.

Although it is certainly possible that the lack of Raids in the first place means more single ships all over the place.

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Friday, February 11, 2022 - 07:57 am: Edit

Well, I think it's fair to say, the dice gods still don't like the Coalition.

50% Success rate for Gorn Marine Attacks (should be about 30%)
100% Failure rate on Shocking (to be be fair, first failed shock roll in several turns...mainly because they been direct killed or self killed)

Missed a 69% chance of kill a crippling Gorn BT and BC (caught then in persuit, rolled a 1 for damage - needed 2+!)

Atleast Romulan cloak rolls was average for once.

I'll let William do the full turn summary...although it may take a while to count the Coalition dead.

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Friday, February 11, 2022 - 07:25 pm: Edit

Alliance turn 27 is done.

Deadcounts:
Z 4
H 2
F 2
G 5
T 2

L 7
K 19 (1 captured)
R 8

Alliance total 13
Coalition total 34

The Feds retook the four Fed planets that were in Coalition hands, as well as three border planets. The Gorns and Feds swarmed all over Northern Romulan space. The Romulans lost two minor planets (4112 and 4313). Both look difficult to retake.

The Gorn raid on Romulus destroyed 5 PDU -- 4 at Romulus itself, and one on the minor in the same system. All five dead Gorn ships died in this raid. The dead include a CVS (killed by dirdam at Romulus) and a battle tug (killed during the retreat).

Several Kzinti attacks were defeated by reserves. The Kzinti now have 8.5EP worth of crips in the Barony. With an economy barely above 20EP, this is a lot. Then again, they also caused more Coalition cripples, perhaps 20EP worth, which is also significant.

The Feds have a powerful fleet on Klingon border minor 1910. This has got to be concerning for the Klingons. To do this, the Feds had to leave some of their interior planets weakly defended. But for the first time in ages, there is no threat to Earth.

The Gorns spent 15EP on Field repairs, and the Feds sent the SCS down thataway for additional entertainment. We would not want our Romulan friends to get bored.

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Friday, February 11, 2022 - 10:13 pm: Edit

With so many changes in the game, I just couldn't help myself. Even though it's an odd-numbered turn, I did fleet counts. Changes are from ONE turn ago.

	U	C	Total
Z	52	6	58 (-2)
H	45	0	45 (+3)
F	243	49	292 (+18)
G	95	16	111 (+1)
Alliance	435 (-6)	71 (+26)	506 (+20)

	U	C	Total
L	133	64	197 (-1)
K	183	148	331 (-11)
R	77	34	111 (-6)
Coalition	393(-19)	246 (+1)	639 (-18)

The net is +38 for the Alliance. This looks terrific and probably is, but one should keep in mind that last turn was only +8, and furthermore 25 of the 38 are in cripples, so next turn's overall gain is likely to be less.

As of the end of the Alliance turn, the Alliance are ahead in uncrippled ships. But the Coalition will probably build and repair a little more than 100 ships. So at the start of the Coalition turn, they will take the lead in uncrippled fleet size.

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Saturday, February 12, 2022 - 07:58 pm: Edit

The Klingons have built an SCS! This cut into the number of ships they could afford. But it may well have been necessary as the Feds have been far ahead on compot every since the 3rd way came online.

By Thomas Mathews (Turtle) on Sunday, February 13, 2022 - 07:55 am: Edit

Now the Feds can build an SCS of their own.

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Sunday, February 13, 2022 - 08:39 am: Edit

They already did as the Hydrans had.