Archive through April 18, 2022
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Archive through April 18, 2022
Yes - lots of battle everywhere this turn....
...except Hydran space!
Hopefully the Lyran SCS, PFW and Klingon D6M will persuade the Hydrans peace is in their interest!
Coalition reserves have bee dispatched which should save 3 minor planets and aid some outnumbered Romulan ships.
Kzintai was a mistake. I failed to consider the approach. There was still a chance of accomplishing something, but we didn't. We ran after one approach round.
For once, an unexpected Approach battle actually worked for me.
William has pulled a couple of 'pinning battles' over planets into 'ouch's' by using the PDU fighters - and so the 4 uncrippled ships (captured and repaired ex-Kz CVS (with no fighters), D5, FF and E4 and crippled ship Coalition line (nothing bigger than a CW) became 60 compot by using 2 x 6 PF's squadrons and 1 x 6 IFF squadron versus's Williams 39 Compot raiding force.
A Kzinti FF died and William spitefully ( 
) directed on a PF, as he only did 6 damage - and then ran.
The True Patriach's Homeworld therefore remains safe.
Please can the dice gods be nice for once.
2 main rounds in the Romulan capital.... and the two 2/3rd chances of killing a Gorn DN have been... both missed.
Alliance have rolled 6 and a 5 and the poor Coalition 3 and 1.
I needed 3+ and BIR has dropped 1 and 2 for the two rounds.
I love the game, but key rolls only seem to go one way.
If I can't get 42 damage with 150+ compot lines (and William is easily rolling enough to kill 10 point command hulls), this game is only going to get tougher for me 
(i.e. those Gorn DN lines are only going one way).
No maulers??
Stewart
Due to the constant mismatch of dice on the Eastern Front - Maulers have been generally a one shot weapon - and IIRC the last 3 mauler shots where they didn't die (anywhere on the map) all failed the shock roll.
There is 1 Mauler in the hex, but thats in the Capital system - so there is a shortage of Maulers.
The first round would have also failed as VBIR dropped 2, to a net 3 (Williams line at higher BIRS could cripple the B10, even if its Form - which would mission kill the B10 for probably the rest of the game).
So with unlimited maulers - would have probably lost 3 Maulers (instead of a SUP, C7 and KE) and killed 1 or 2 DN's.
Assuming William still used a high BIR!
William's compot has been 140-170 - mine 130 to 160 - and so with a Mauler on the line, he could go low on BIR and still kill it.
The compound effect of constantly failing to get 42 damage is really hurting the Romulans.
In the entire game, I think the Romulans have rolled high enough once to kill a Gorn DN (and I killed a Gorn 3CV group instead).
Several times missed by 1 damage or 1 pip on the dice (like I did in the first round in the Capital battle this turn) - so luck just isn't there it seems.
Is it fair to comment about dice when one side is rolling double what the other side does?
For the four main rounds over 4613, Coalition has rolled an average of 2.25 and the Alliance 4.5!!
And when your dealing with 150+ Compot lines, thats a huge mismatch in damage done.
At least I have finally killed a Gorn DN - although I rolled another 1, the +1 sacrifice with the Fed FFE and VBIR going up 2, meant I actually got the 5/6 chance needed to kill it.
Lost a CON in exchange though (William rolled a 3).
Dice are just brutal on me.
I don't believe things are as bad as you claim dice wise. I suspect that you are glossing over the times the die rolls well as 'it doesn't count'.
I'll believe it when I see it in a game I play with you, if you ever actually agree to one.
Richard has taught me the way of Zen when it comes to dice. I'm a lot happier now. 
It was a hard lesson, I'll admit. Being of Irish descent, and a ginger besides, I have a tendency to get very excited and upset about things - but Richard's German stoicism has shown me the path of dice righteousness!
Richard
I record 'all' the normal combat dice and pursuits.
I have partially tracked ESSC dice, Cloaks and Gorn G Assault - but it is fair to say, I haven't tracked Captured* or Mauler rolls.
* - Equally fair to say, from the number of odd coloured counters in Enemy Fleets, the Alliance has captured well over 3 times the number the Coalition has!
....and the current Combat averages are : -
VBIR 3.53 (not fully accurate - as Fighting Retreat Combats didn't have a VBIR roll - but I assumed 3.5 was rolled for these so actual rolled VBIR is marginally higher).
Coalition 3.453
Alliance 3.519
Was expecting a larger differential between the Coalition and Alliance - and from the notes on some combats, it's probably fair to say - first 10 turns look OK on large/small battles but since then, Coalition has rolled well in Small Battles and poorly in Large Battles?
As an example this turn so far, in the 2 small battles, the rolls were 1 and 4 for the Alliance and 4 and 5 for Coalition and the 4 large battles, 6,5,4,3 for the Alliance v 3,1,4,1 for the Coalition.
Would you rather roll well with 60 Compot or 160 Compot?
The dice are dice. You make a decision based on what happened and then move on. In the end, it averages. If you truly need to win a hex you move enough in so that dice are irrelevant to ultimate victory.
Even 6/1 splits over the first few rounds of capital assaults are not dispositive. It may feel that way, but in the end the total damage you do and take is within statistical variation.
F&E just has too many die rolls for a few single rolls to dominate the game. In fact, if they do, it means there was a failure to plan somewhere in all likelihood. Which happens, of course. It's not like SFB tournament where a single miss with photons means the game.
Become Zen. Allow the dice to wash over you and just make cold statistical calculations that inform best guesses, and then move on. Much less angst!
I mean, I got a 1 - 6 split vs Ted today over SB 0215. The Coalition did more damage with a 114 compot force than my 175ish compot force.
I shrugged my shoulders, shot down a DNL (he mauled an RN) and took the rest on fighters. Safety is not guaranteed and I'm ok with that.
It's true that the Alliance averages this turn have been strong.
For context, the B-10 is stationed at Romulus. It would have to walk through a lot of contested space to reach a Klingon SB. If crippled, I would not like its chances.
We've had a bunch of chances at crippling it over the last two turns. Generally, they were 1/12 or 7/36 chances. But combined, they probably amount to a 40-50% chance of crippling it. We've missed.
What would we be hearing here if one of those 1/12 shots had hit?
I shudder to think.
I agree - there was a chance the B10 could have been crippled.
Best chance was round 3 - a 35% would have got you enough damage to cripple it - but there was some rounds with zero chance (while I selected BIR 1 and only 2 rounds I think I selected higher than a 1!) - 7 rounds needed 42.5% plus (so not possibly even with VBIR 6 and a roll of 6).
Ignoring owed points (which certainly applied in 1 round - when I selected BIR 2) - you needed
1 x 35% (6/36 chance)
3 x 37.5% (3/36 chance)
3 x 40% (1/36 chance)
So - 13/36 chances!
Against your DN's (and again ignoring owed), I had
1 x 25% (30/36)
2 x 27.5% (24/36)
2 x 32.5% (12/36)
1 x 35% (6/36)
2 x 37.5% (3/36)
(Ignoring the last round over the capital planet as you didn't use any)
104/36ths - and I got 1.
As I said 2 would have been 'average' - a third possibly lucky.
Captures - I would agree I rolled 'up' for once (the FFE captured in round 1), but your up on G attacks (2 out of 4 killed a PDU, when 1 more or less would be average).
Happy to swop round all the dice if you like (or cripple the B10 and kill the 4SCS group?)
35% is 7/36. I still think that over the last two turns combined, it was 40-50%.
My point is not that the B10 necessarily makes up for the averages. It is the hyper-focus on whatever was bad, while ignoring what was good.
Normally, I'm not too interested in luck one way or the other. But had I been looking at it from your point of view, I would have said that the rolls were frustrating, but I was fortunate to keep the B-10.
Well got the main roll (just about caught the Alliance with rolling a 5)....
...and then rolled another 1 for the battle!
Probably saved 1 Alliance ship - I was able to Maul 3 Gorn SC's and a Fed NCL though (and didn't shock!).
Evil Alliance has fled atleast.
5 Minor Planets Devastated and 3 PDU's (1 Left) stripped off the capital.
Not a good day for the Romulans.
Well, I would like to say the dice have improved - but they haven't.
A couple of really brutal* battles and I can't roll higher than a 4 (last 10 dice have been 3 x 1, 3 x 2, 1 x 3, 3 x 4 for me, and William can't roll lower than a 3 - 1 x 3. 4 x 4, 4 x 5 and 1 x 6)
VBIR seems to like William even more than the combat dice.
Average for the turn is 2.94 for me and 4 for William still.
Cloak average is at least 2 of 3 passes for the turn - and William actually failed to kill me in a Fighting retreat ESSC combat (he still crippled me though).
...and the Klingons have lost a Carrier. The D6V was crippled with a lucky roll and then killed with an OK roll in pursuit.
Dice are truly incredible.
Last 12 rounds...
1) My highest roll remains a 4....
2) I haven't rolled higher in any round
3) Have only rolled equal to William in 2 rounds
4) Average of 2.33 for the Coalition v 4.75 for the Alliance (the turn averages are 2.85 v 4.2)
And I got it wrong on Cloaked roll's 2 of the 3 rolls was failures
I can't explain it - but the Coalition has zero luck - constantly.
This turn
One side is rolling 20% above average
One side is rolling 20% below average
Cloak's are successful 33% of the time
Gorn Marine Assaults are successful 50% of the time.
Persuits - no significant difference (the 1 failed persuit would have only been successful on a 1)
Captures - Coalition captured a FFE - Alliance has captured nothing.
(Cloaks, Gorn Assaults, Persuits and Captures prior to this turn have all been in favour of the alliance).
Alas, the data can't lie.
How it is interpreted might vary - other than some very very successful one off fights killing several Coalition hulls**, I accept there hasn't been many significant individual lucky break for either side - William has had one (possibly more, but I can't remember them) 60+ damage round when he could have directed on and crippled the B10 for example, but choose to to something else instead - but equally, a 2 ship CVA group didn't die on a 66/33 chance - and the Fed SCS+CVL (and 2 escorts) missed a 7/36 chance of dying.
So on strategic rolls (the B10 is deep in Romulan space and so repairing it at a Klingon SB will take several turns) - William did have a chance and chose not to use it - I haven't though.
** - On average dice (a 4 say) - at most 3 crippled ships would have died (a poor roll, which I always seem to get when mugging an alliance force, might not have seen any ships die as I might have crippled most of the fleet) - the VBIR 6 and Williams 6 meant an uncrippled ship also died and the fleet lost the bulk of it's fighters (as it will be likely out of supply).
So, yes, William has only had 1 single, very lucky roll - but Coalition have had none - but on general dice, one side is getting a lot of more modest lucky breaks - constantly - and one side doesn't.
Is that fair to say?
Quote:Is that fair to say?
No. Now, suck it up, buttercup!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yChB0OdOG0k
I'm just messing with you! It is undeniable, based on the reported data, you've had a string of bad luck. As to whether that should mean any particular conclusion... YMMV.
If soul crushingly bad die rolls crush your soul, F&E may not be for you.
Wow - only took 14 rounds to win a round!!
Only won by 1 - but a win is a win!
And we have had a first.
A Captured (and re-fitted) ship - has been captured.
The ex -Lyran BC in Federation service was captured over 1502.... and it escaped the pursuit battle.
So 5.5 Ep's to repair and re-fit the Lyran BC back to a Lyran BC!
Are you using Vassal for die rolls? I have noticed Cyberboard and Vassal both have weak die rollers. we have adopted other means (PBEM dice rolls that emails everyone can be easily templated for information entry so not to slow the game down.
If you dont believe in the law of averages and you you are using a program to try and generate randomness then either the program is flawed or...someone out there is balancing your bad rolls with good ones...I game tomorrow in person so thanks in advance LOL
Hi Lawrence
We are using the Dice Roller in Slack currently.
Having used various dice rollers - all I can say is that I seem to be unlucky with all of them.
(We have had two gaps in the game where my soul just could not keep up with the dice imbalance that was constantly occurring. although I may be thinking of A Very English War, William and I's previous game>???).
Well, A28 combat is over - and it's fair to say my dice improved, but not when needed.
VBIR 3.63
Coalition 3.28
Alliance 4.00
So with 46 rounds, thats a pretty impressive out rolling by the Alliance.
Absolutely also fair to say, when it was a one sided battle - the Alliance rolled very well and the VBIR helped out (couple of VBIR 6 and 6 Alliance rolls) - which caused a lot more damage than expected.
Attempted muggings of Alliance forces generally failed again.
About the only success is the Tholians didn't do much damage on their final turn.... and a modest Federation force in 2012 has got cut off (will be back in Supply on C29 though) after killing a FRD and a couple of D5's.
Alliance turn 28 is done. Deadcounts:
K 17
L 6
R 11
Coalition 34
F 15 (two captured; one of those was then expended for a +1).
Z 3
G 6
Alliance 24
In addition, two Tholians were killed in combat. The remaining 31 then returned to Tholian space. The Tholians still hold planet 2518 with two PDUS and a BATS.
The 31 who survived to enter Tholian space are mostly PC.