Archive through September 03, 2022
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Archive through September 03, 2022
Yes, at one point the Klingons and Lyrans each sent 12 of their best ships to the Romulans. There were multiple DN, Lyran BC, maulers, D6D, and so on. The B-10 was also included. Without a doubt, this was crucial in allowing the Romulans to hang on as long as they did.
Well, what can I say.
Combat dice have gone back to how they have been for 20 turns + and William is getting good rolls at the right time.
Average for turn is now 3.55 VBIR, 3.7 Alliance and 3.17 for me (including 5 1's in the last 9 rolls).
Average for last 9 (and also technically last 10, as that was 4 v 2) rounds is Alliance 4 v Coalition 2.
Capture rolls for William are running at 200%+ again (3 or 4 captures for him so far).
What is really hurting - when I mug an Alliance force - I roll badly - when William has a big force - he rolls well AND VBIR is the Alliance friend.
Turn 26 was the last time the Coalition had a higher average on combat dice.
Just ridiculous
Absolutely ridiculous.
Hopefully people will start to understand my frustration with the dice.
William has rolled higher (and generally 2 PIP's higher) in every round for now the last 8 rounds.
I have rolled 7 1's in the last 11 rolls (3 3's and a 4 being the other rolls) and just noticed, I have rolled 4 1's in a row....
Average for the last 11 rounds is 4 v 1.8 (average for turn is 3.7 v 3.03).
Plus William is hitting over 75% of the 50/50's and 66% of the 33/67's chances - i.e. right roll at the right time (pursuits remain massively overly successful for example).
I am losing crippled and killed ships hand over fist (yes I should be losing alot, due to garrison), but this is just ridiculous.
I have to say - I think tactics have no value when the dice are this bad for one side and that good for the other side.
Only took 12 rounds to draw a battle and actually won the 13th.
But have now got to 8 1's in 13 dice (was 8 out of 12, but the 13th Roll I actually won with a 4!!!) 
Is anyone good at maths - whats the chance of 8 of 12 dice being 1's???
Another 2/3rd chance of a pursuit... got by William.
Over the last 12 or so pursuits - he should have got 6 and he has got 9
Dice are just crucifying the Coalition.
Not due to dice (I lost it though) - about the only thing I was able to do was save 5117 as his force was Out of Supply and the brave SP forced the Feds to retreat.
Well, what can I say?
Other than my memory does remember somethings and forget some things.
William and I discussed the dice and I analysed the raw dice rolling data - and it did surprise me.
Ignoring the last few rolls, over 31 turns, William had only outrolled me by around 180 pips - so 3 rounds per player turn, he rolled +1 over me.
Which is alot less than I thought it was.
Two things.
Early on - I actually rolled (slightly) worse early on! So my dice are getting better.
With 1970 recorded normal combat dice, averages are
Coalition rolled 6,775 pips - an average of 3.44
Alliance rolled 6,954 pips - an average of 3.53
First 1,000 rolls - averages are 3.41 v 3.53
Last 970 rolls - averages are 3.47 v 3.53
So yes, subconsciously, I have been discounting some of my good rolls and good rolling periods from probably turns 8 to 22 (as the last 5 turns has been dire, my low recent rolls are partially balanced by higher older rolls).
We agreed - William is good on pursuits, but not massively significantly above the average, but the Romulans are significantly below average on Cloaks and the Alliance is up on Captures.
But the Gorns are massively up on both captures AND quality of hulls captured!
Out of about 31 FH/KE's built (including PWC), 29 I think have died, but the Gorns have captured 6 of them (when 2 would be average).
Lyran BC's also have a big 'capture me button' with 2 being captured out of probably 10 killed (of over 20 built).
% Wise though - Condors seem to have no defensive measures at all - 5 built - 1 captured.
Average - 1 would be above average!
Mauler captures are also above average - lots have died - probably 35 - and so 1 is about right - and 3 have been captured.
Coalition captures are probably not too far below the average, but quality wise, more NCL and better hulls should have been captured.
We did delve into some of the earlier rounds - is the Coalition killing a SB, which had say a 30% chance of surviving (i.e. modest out rolling needed) 'lucky'?
The Kzinti did well in 3 of the 5 'large' battles over SB's and Major planets - but only poor to average over the Capital on turns 3 and 4.
So fair to say, some of my dice comments are fair - but weirdly, combat ones are a little off.
(We didn't look into SSC's, as they haven't been tracked).
A31 has been finished, and probably fair to say the Alliance achieved it's main aims of capturing Romulus AND cutting the main Romulan fleet off from supply (I nearly was able to wiggle supply though, but William retreated from a battle to re-block supply, rather than capturing a planet.
With 1970 recorded normal combat dice, averages are
Coalition rolled 6,775 pips - an average of 3.44
Alliance rolled 6,954 pips - an average of 3.53
(6775 + 6954) / 1970 / 2 = 3.4845
Overall the dice are quite close to the 3.5 nominal even with only 2000-ish rolls. I imagine if you continued to play and roll your overall average would get closer and closer to 3.5.
--Mike
Alliance turn 31 is done. Deadcounts:
Z 4 (incl. TGC and CMV)
H 5 (incl. 3RN)
F 6
G 2 (incl. BT)
Alliance 17
K 12
L 9
R 7 (incl. SUP)
Coalition 28
Also killed was a Lyran FRD. In many battles, the Alliance played to cripple Coalition ships, not necessarily to kill them. Even still, our repair situation took a beating at Romulus, where we needed to exhaust the PF pool to capture the hex.
With Romulus taken, the Feds stopped sending forces to Romulan space and even transferred a CVA back to the Klingon front. The Gorns are also sending major forces to the Fed-Klingon front, with around 40 Gorn ships now present. The vast majority arrived this turn. Of them 16 are crips that were strat moved to Fed repair points, for probably repair at the start of Alliance turn 32.
Spent on extra start were G 12EP and F 1EP.
Also, the Gorns spent 14EP on field repair, and the Feds spent 17EP, due to the lack of repair facilities in the Romulus region.
In prior turns, the Feds on the Klingon front generally retroed in order to try to hold key planets. But now that defensive role is being filled by the new arrivals, allowing a portion of the ships that were already in the region to stay at their new forward positions. The Feds did not retro from NZ minor 1910 for example. They also sent a large force to minor 2715, knowing that it would be unable to retro.
The last three turns on the Fed/Klingon front are likely to be a confused melee in which each tries to grab victory points in the other's territory. The Klingons start out with some advantages as their SB are all intact and they even have still have two border BATS. They also have perhaps 70-80 ships in the Southern Federation, and another 30-odd at NZ planet 2214.
Against this, the Feds have a better repair position, an only-partly-exhausted economy and the arriving Gorn support.
I am not doing a full fleet count this turn. But I am doing a count of Alliance crips, which have been a problem lately.
Z 4 (-5)
H 1 (+0)
F 33 (-14)
G 53 (+2)
Changes are from last turn. The Feds have made progress on their crip pile. The current 33 crips is likely typical, or maybe even low, for the current situation. The Gorn pile has grown slightly as many of their Romulus crips only reached repair points this turn.
For powers with large, widely-spread fleets, counting crips seems to be only slightly less trouble than counting entire fleets.
Coalition Economy in the West is holding up OK - but the Romulan Economy is in tatters.
Lyrans rolled 6 for survey - getting to 370 for another province looks unlikely (339).
Lyrans converted a CW to a CVL, converted the 617 BATS into a SB and 38.5 Ep's on repairs.
Klingons rolled 5 for survey - so getting to 220 for another province also looks unlikely, but not impossible (210).
Klingons built a D5V, AD5, 6 x F5 and 3 x E4 and 56.5 Ep's on Repairs.
Romulans (no Survey, they pulled the SPC's off Survey), built a SN and 11 Ep's on Repairs.
We have agreed to a cheese limit of one SB per side in the endgame. His is Hydrax; mine will replace the Gorn 6th fleet SB.
The background of this is explained in my "Base upgrade VP cheese" proposal in the proposals forum.
Turn C32 op movement has started with an attack on the Kzinti. My best guess is that Paul is going to try to stop the Gorn MB setup at Fed SB 2103. But that's just reading tea leaves without any actual evidence.
I had expected the Coalition to counterattack somewhere along the Western Fed - Klingon front. However, attacks in that area are next to nonexistent. Instead, they are killing a few Fed ships in the far South, but mostly likely just hunkering down to prepare for A32.
Most on-map Kzinti fleets are under attack, as are the Hydrans, and Fed forces in Romulan space.
Indeed
Due to the Kzinti Rebels aggressive actions - alas the ships wasn't available to do both.
A single large battle in the Hydran front, the liberation of 3 Rebel held planets and 2 deep space pinning battles in the Kzinti Front.
The Federation front sees some skirmish action south of Orion and Western Romulan space.
The Romulan Front does see a couple of battles, as the battered Romulan Fleet tries to get back into supply.
Well, no Carriers die for AGES.... and then 3 die in the first half of combats!!
Federation have also found how expensive holding territory is, with losses so far of : -
Klingon - D5 (drew the reserve)
Romuilan - SKB (drew the reserve)
Kzinti CVS and CMV Killed (both naked on the line - the CMV direct killed, the CVS crippled then killed in persuit)
Federation - CC, 9 x FF, 2 x FFE, ECL and SC
Coalition do have a couple of crippled ships also.
4 Battles left to do in the Kzinti front, 1 on the Federation front and the 1 Hydran Battle.
Romulans have recaptured 4715 (rebelled after they reacted off), but the Federation did hold 3415.
Fair to say, Hero of the turn so far goes to a crippled Federation FF in 4419, which although it did die, it crippled the attacking SK on a 12!
Other than 1 poor SSC roll though, Coalition for once have rolled well in the SSC's.
The Kzinti Rebels are slowly being pushed back into their box and 2 planets have been 'liberated'.
Alas, slight error (was a DW and not a DWE) for me stopped a CVS+FF group being crippled AND I lost the DW to Kzinti fire.
Lyrans - DW
Klingon - D5
Romuilan - SKB
Kzinti CVS, CMV, MEC and 2 x FF
Federation - CC, 9 x FF, 2 x FFE, ECL and SC
4 battles in total left to go.
Well, I hope the Romulans don't get to the same situation as the Kzinti.
For the last 3 or 4 turns, the Kzinti had got away with a shortage of escorts.
A line of CC(Form), CVS and 2 x CMV's feeding fighters forward has generally avoided taking damage against Coalition lines of 50 to 70 compot (20 damage is needed to direct something), but this turn, due to 1903 NOT being attacked, I have been able to send better lines against the Kzinti , 80-90 compot in most cases).
25% of 84 is enough to direct cripple a CVS or CMV feeding forward (and the CMV's are now generally on the line too).
Net effect, Kzinti have now lost 2 x CVS and 2 x CMV's this turn - (Persuit dice have also been 4 for 4 on success).
(Combat dice have generally been 4+ for both sides too).
Kzinti losses for the turn are therefore 2 x CVS, 2 x CMV, MEC and 2 x FF - Ep wise, probably the largest loss for any Empire on any turn?
(I don't think the Gorns or Roms lost more than 3 DN's in a Turn).
The 3 rebel planets have also been liberated - 1802 being the only Kzinti Rebel held planet now.
2 Battles to go (Fed and Hydran front).
And C32 is over.
Dead - alot!!!
Lyrans CW and 3 x DW (1 captured )
Klingon - D5 and F5
Romuilan - SKB
Kzinti 2 x CVS, 2 x CMV, MEC and 2 x FF
Hydrans - 2 x CU, 2 x DE, NSC and SC
Federation - CC, 10 x FF, 2 x FFE, ECL and SC
Gorn - Nothing!!
So, 7 dead coalition ships (1 captured) and 28 dead Alliance ships (nothing captured).
We did have a major computer error though - somehow a Klingon D6M mauled and didn't shock.
Not sure how that happened, but would be nice to have a few more computer errors in my favour 
Federation have 40 odd ships in a Partial Grid still - but the bulk of Coalition ships are back in supply.
So yes, 5 Carriers died this turn!!
Getting close to the end. Live carriers don't count for much in the victory conditions.
Douglas
Your right!
Fair to say though the Kzinti have very successfully been a pain in the Coalition side though - and the loss of 24 fighters will take 1 or 2 small pinning forces out of the equation.
So, I am happy that the pain is now reduced!!!!
Feds and Kzinti both lost a lot of ships this turn. It may be enough to delay the Alliance overtaking the Coalition.
As Douglas implies, I am more and more willing to let carriers die as the end approaches. Still this turn's massacre was not good.
With luck (work not being stupidly mad busy), I will get C32 finished tomorrow.... before I go on holiday!
Lyrans spend 4 Eps on Field Repairs and 2 Ep's on PF's.
Klingons spend 2 Ep's on Strategic Movement and possibly 3 Ep's on PF's (I think 6 died in a battle a while ago and would like to replace them.... or they might not have died - so will check this!).
1 Lyran reserve is in Hydran space.
3 Coalition reserves cover the still too deep into the map Kzinti forces (alas wasn't able to cut any off this time) and 3 Coalition reserves cover the bulk of the Klingon/Federation front.
3 small Romulan reserves cover Eastern Romulan space.
A large Federation force does still remain out of supply centred on 2714, but pretty much everything else is in supply.
Even evil benevolent overlords need a vacation...... and so the game is on hold for 2 weeks.
Kzinti Economy, turn 32
Survey roll 9
Survey total 338
Survey EP 24
Offmap 17
Provinces 2
Total 43
Percentage 0.5
Income 21.5
From last turn 0.5
Scrap D5 2
Total Money 24
Repairs 7
Builds
CMV 7
4FF 10
Total spending 24
Money after Econ 0
Also: 0.5EP at 1802, just sitting there for now.