Archive through December 08, 2022
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Archive through December 08, 2022
Paul, I get it, I just thought the text was amusing, especially because you are building what amounts to the worst ship in the Lyran fleet. I know pin-count is a thing, I just try to avoid those miserable 4 point frigates whenever practical.
60.5 EPs of repairs is an epically large amount of EPs spent on repair though; the max in our game paused at T26 is 49.5 for the Feds on T18. That number also requires an impressive number of Lyran FRDs.
It just goes to point out the variety in outcomes depending on choices made and the way the game has gone. My game only the Feds have that level of repair capacity that could probably be engaged. The Lyrans have a lot, but its dispersed widely and its use tends to cycle a bit from region to region, depending on where the conflicts are. Romulans used to have it to, but "used to" 
Well, the Lyrans have atleast 4 FRD's still - plus a SB in 1401 and new one in 617.... and so lots of bases for repairs close to the front line!
Operational movement is done.
Kzinti Front the 'BATS' killers are being jumped on and 1802 is under attack but the 1002 Out of Supply Kzinti Force isn't being attacked.
Hydran Front - Big battles in 215 and 217 - and I have put the 515 Hydran force out of supply (but haven't attacked it).
Federation Front - Every hull in range hits 2103 - plus 2106 is under attack. 1910 is pinned (a reserve was there) - plus I have got the bulk of the northern Tholian front forces back in supply for the Klingons.
Romulan Front - 5117 should be liberated - but thats about all I can do.
Fair to say, I had a large shortage of ships against the Federation - and a surplus against the Hydrans - and so no major invasion of the Federation this turn.
Both sides do have about 80 ships staring against each other though - I couldn't move as it could bring reserves forward and I don't think I could have gained much in the South - without giving up the attack on 2103 (SB has 5 SIDS on it still) - so lets hope my Klingon commanders are better in staring contests than their Federation equivalents!!
Alliance reserves have afew options - and thats probably what saved the Kzinti from being pushed off map again (I don't have enough ships to do eveything!).
My only saving grace is the Kzinti are not capable of a sustained offensive, due to a lack of escorts.
Reserves have been dispatched.
What's good for the Alliance: Orion will rejoin the Federation at the start of our turn.
A Gorn force and a Fed reserve have moved forward two hexes to 2411. This will help next turn's attacks on the Klingons. This force can hit the two surviving border BATS, thereby allowing the forces around the Neutral Zone to strike deeper into Klingon space.
What's bad: Planet 2106 will be lost.
What might be bad: SB 2103 is under assault. It's unclear if it can hold. Obviously, losing it would be bad for us. BUT a failed assault could be very good for the Alliance. Even a successful assault with heavy casualties might allow us to gain sufficient compensation elsewhere. Maybe.
Combats have been started.
In the Romulan Front -
5117 - Was liberated - the crippled Gorn BC lived (was in form, so it living killed the 15 fighters), but the crippled Federation FFE dies and the fleet is now fighterless and out of supply.
5118 - Similar - NAC crippled but a SP was killed - and the fleet is down to 3 fighters and out of supply.
Both fleets retreated to 5017.
4918 saw a Gorn HD die and the trap closed (alas William saw it and didn't fight longer than he had to in the above battles).
2917 - Federation NCL died and a Klingon F5 was crippled - Feds retreated and the Eastern Klingon forces are back in supply!
We will ask a question as it looks like Orion remains neutral via a Supply Tug (rule doesn't require supply from a Base or Planet).
2411 - A crippled D5 and crippled F5 dies allowing the rest of the pinning force to escape.
602 - Not the wipe out that I wanted (I assumed the uncrippled CMV and FFS would run) - so 'just' the crippled DN, 2 x CMV and 2 x MEC died - plus the CMV and FFS were crippled.
From the BATS killing force, just the CVS, a CMV and Fed FFS lived (all crippled and no fighters left).
Force remains Out of Supply in 703.
Alas, I think in effect two rounds of combat will allow the Alliance to win the game.
Unless I can kill 1903 on Turn 34, thats 20 Vp's I wasn't expecting the Alliance to get.
Over 1903 - the Gorn MB died easily (both sides rolled 3)...but over the SB, VBIR went up 2 and William rolled 6 twice (I rolled 4 and 1)- which twice smashed the Coalition line - 45% and 42.5% (I was half expecting William to go low on BIR so I might fail to get 24+ for the SID, as there was generally 6 owed points each round.
178 compot each round - and so the 8th SID had to be mauled and I than had to run.
Getting 36 damage to kill the SB would then have been tough (I was expecting to do 3 SIDS and then Maul kill the SB, as only 26 would have been needed plus owed...).
So the SB is crippled - but alive.
Almost certainly the most painful failed SB assault (and I have had probably 8 failed SB assaults now - 4 being on 1903).
The Coalition line could have done 5 or 6 rounds relatively easily and taking 40 damage a round (assuming no directing) - but 2 rounds with over 70 taken each round, broke it.
Just two battles to go.
In the important battles - William has rolled well, but overall Coalition have rolled better during the turn.
Fair to say the only success has been in the Romulan Front.
Romulans liberated one planet which pushed the Alliance away a bit and Federation has lost one own planet - and thats about it.
Losses have been heavier for the Coalition as several hulls were self killed over the SB - only 1 good round for the Federation I think we would have seen the SB probably die (as even with the mauler, a poor VBIR and Coalition roll might have seen say only 20% or 22.5% damage done, which might not have been enough), but those two horror rounds meant perhaps a 110 compot and 35% needed to get a net 36 damage, rather than 120 compot and a mauler needing 25% to get a net 26 damage.
Lyrans BC, CV, CWE, DW, FF
Klingons D7, 3 x D5, F5
Romulans SP
Kzinti, DN, 2 x CMV, 2 x MEC, FF
Hydrans LM
Federation , NCL, 2 x FFE - plus SB crippled
Gorn HD
I think thats it!
So not a good Coalition turn, which could have been so very different.
.
Yes, at the SB assault, our strategy was to build up some minus points to force a high BIR out of Paul, then pick a high BIR ourselves. Paul could then score SIDS steps. BUT we could let the damage fall to cause a lot of crips, weakening his fleet. It might have worked anyway, maybe, but the dice certainly helped. This got to the point where Paul decided to use his only mauler to score the 8th SIDS, guaranteeing that the SB would be crippled, but also leaving himself with pretty much no chance at a kill shot. So he ran.
Had we rolled more normally in the early rounds, the SB would still have had a decent chance of holding. We could have overcrippled the Fed DN+ for 10 minus points. He then would have needed to score 36 damage with the mauler to kill the SB. Probably about a 50/50 shot, depending on what kind of line he could put together. He had only one mauler and did not have enough fleet to score four more SIDS the hard way.
I didn't setup the Gorn MB expecting to use it as a sacrifice to keep the SB alive. But it certainly served the purpose!
BTW, the attacker cannot take advantage of any SIDS done previously, but must do the full 72 (directed damage) to cripple an SB (308.83) ...
He can, and did, still score one SIDS at a time. The SB started with 5 SIDS. He scored 3 more, one per round, over three rounds. But the high BIRs and rolls left his fleet too weak to do another 36 damage in a single round . . . and also too weak to stick around for 4 more rounds and score the remaining 4 SIDS the hard way.
I think overall, the SB assault had just under a 50% chance of succeeding. In the most likely case, the Coalition would have had one shot at the crippled SB with the mauler and would have needed to get past 10 minus points. With the mauler, the required damage would have been 36, as the basic 36 would have been increased by 10 for the minus points, but decreased by 10 for the mauler, ending up back at 36. With 120 compot a likely amount at that point, this would have been a 50/50 shot.
The assault could have also failed in a weird way (which is what actually happened). There was also some chance of a mauler attempt with under 119 compot, which would have had a 1/3 chance of succeeding. Also probably a very small chance the Coalition could have maintained 130 compot by round 5, giving them a 2/3 shot with the mauler. So a bit under 50% over-all.
Were there really eight failed SB assaults by the Coalition in this game?
I haven't kept count. I'd guess more like 10-12.
Just to add -- as a general matter, I don't like defending my SB so heavily that the Coalition can't take them. I think it is far better to defend them sufficiently that a Coalition assault might succeed and might fail. Failed assaults are a natural consequence.
Richard
Yes - some were more passing attempts (i.e. a force retreated into a weakly defended SB - 3008 I think happened that way and it ended up with 5 SIDS).
1903 certainly has had 2 of 3 full assaults and a couple of weak attempts too.
(Certainly on 1 weak attempt, I made the error of not checked what both sides had 1 assault had a hugely outnumbered Alliance force against the Coalition - but the Alliance had a modest force of very high quality and I had very very little quality - and lots of 4 and 5 point frigates - the pin count looked good, but that was about it!)
3611 probably had 1 full assault - and 4806 has had a couple too.
1903 though has very much been a thorn in my side - and I felt this assault did have the strength to kill it, as I spent turn 32 marshalling forces into the right area to be in range and with the strength to get 3-5 SIDS (if it has been repaired) and Maul Kill the crippled SB.
Coalition turn 33 is over.
The good news - a modest pocket of Alliance forces in and around 1910 are cut off (although the Feds can pay for supply and there is only about 5 non-Fed hulls there).
The bad news - 1 Lyran force is also OOS in 2106 - it outran it's supply lines and in total, Coalition will start turn 34 about 40 Eps in deficit as lots of spending on PF's and Field Repairs.
Modest forces remain forward deployed near 2103 and South of Orion (which we have more or less agreed remains neutral - thanks Richard) - but in Klingon space a deeper line of defence has been organised - including modest fleets in and covering 1411!!
The additional pain of a major failed SB assault is pretty evident on A33 so far.
In South West Klingon Space - the Federation have swarmed across the border and hit multiple targets and pinned 2 of the 3 front reserves.
No raid on 1411 atleast!
In Hydran space -the Hydrans break out raiding several provinces and may re-take 416.
The Romulans about the only ones 'looking OK' - as the Alliance defers the assault on the new Capital - but does swarm over a lot of areas south of the old capitals!
Kzinti front remains to be done.
Indeed, we baited the Klingons with an attack on a major near Klinshai. It had no PDUs as we captured it long ago. But they didn't bite. So we went after South-West K space.
On the Romulan front, Paul managed to cut our spearhead OOS with cloaked moves on his turn. So all we can do degrade the R fleet a bit and prepare for a hopefully better attack on turn 34.
On the Hydran front, it's not so much that their fleet is suddenly powerful. It isn't. But with turn 34 approaching, we need to spread out for VP, even though we will lose some ships on C34.
Kzinti front has yet to move because I need a plan.
Alliance turn 33 op move is done. The goal is obviously to take planets and kill bases. We will be doing a lot of that in Klingon space, but none in Romulan space.
In Kzinti space, we might or might not be retaking devastated planets. We also might or might not be able to degrade the Coalition fleet in Kzinti space.
In Hydran space, we might retake a devastated minor planet. We are also spreading out the Hydran fleet, allowing it to potentially do more on turn A34.
Well, reserves have been dispatched which will save 2 planets and 1 SB - but the damage to the Klingons will be pretty major.
Kzinti front has been partly done - and I keep mentioning this, but dice seem to have gone back to 'we don't like the Coalition' - again.
Current average is 4 for the Alliance v 2.88 for the Coaltion.
I didn't note C33 - but A32 average was 3.09 (Alliance) v 3.16 (Coalition) - so I can roll higher - but not above average it seems.
ESSC has gone back to liking the Alliance (which has a major effect for some fighters*).
Coalition are again failing 50% of pursuits (a CMV would have died on 2+, or the CVS on 4 and I failed) - and in the successful pursuit, I rolled below average so only 2 ships died.
Last turns SB assault force is now out of Supply with 8 Fighters left (would have been 16 Fighters if the ESSC rolls was the other way round*!) - but it is next to the SB still.
Alas, William correctly worked out how to cut them off (nearly blew it, when swopped some battles, but he corrected it).
So - dice are painful - again.
Kzinti Escortless fleets are dangerous again.
Huge number of cripples for the Coalition and 1 dead Coalition ship versus 3 dead Alliance ships.
Well, dice go from bad to worse.
A 2/3rd chance of killing a CMV missed - and Williams is rolling 50% higher than me (4.2 v 2.8).
10 rounds so far - William has rolled higher in 7, drew in 2 and I rolled higher in 1.
When will the Coalition roll as well as the Alliance?
The continued game effect of the dice imbalance (which I think is significant enough to mention) is that the overall damage done is similar - and when you have 30% more compot (the last one was 89 v 66 for example), the Alliance is saving a stack of damage on their ships - and the Coalition is taking extra damage - and so even where the Alliance doesn't direct and the Coalition does, the Alliance EP wise comes out ahead.
In the most recent battle - the Alliance lost a MEC due to directed damage in round 1 - and then killed their fighters and ran (I missed the 2/3rd chance of killing the now naked CMV) whereas the Coalition crippled in round 1 a CWE and a D7C - and crippled a DW and killed 6 PF's in round 2.
So Alliance lost 7 Ep's in Ships - and I took 8 Ep's in Crippled and lost PF's.
If both sides had rolled 3's - Alliance would have lost the CMV and only 4 PF's instead of 6 PF's would have died.
(To add insult to the injury, I had EW in this battle and William didn't and overall he still out rolled me!)
So 26 Ep's (accepting 12 Ep's of Fighters is not relevant now) v 7 Ep's.
So a huge Ep swing to the Coalition!
But no, dice gods just do not play fair.
My timing on getting the right dice roll at the right time.... is pretty rare.
Hurrah - actually won a round of combat!!
After 17 rounds - still can't capture anything (Alliance has generally been dropping damage and I have been directing), but combat averages are now 4.06 v 3.35.
So dropped from 50% to just 20% now on outrolling.
Did also succeed on a pursuit too - so 2 of 3 successes!
Kzinti front has been done - the three planets under attack all held - and I just about avoided 1502 being sneakily retreated over by a Kzinti CMV.
Kzinti only hold 1802 on map then.
And Romulan luck is back to zero.
6 cloak attempts - 3 failures and 3 dead ships (2 had a slim chance of surviving if the cloak failed).
Would have been nice to hit average (as it probably means the SPB which withdrew will now be fighting retreated over, so it probably will cost me 2 hulls)!
Over 100 cloak rolls in the game - and a 60% (it should be around 66%) pass rate (and again, key ones seem to be failed).
So thats over 6 extras dead Romulans ships as I can't remember a failed cloak ship surviving (which also explains why the Romulans are massively short of smaller hulls!)!
The really poor rolls occurred early as well - Alliance turn 13 saw 8 attempts and a 25% pass rate (so 6 dead ships that turn).
Fair to say, the Romulan cloak withdrawals have been massively unsuccessful in the game.
I stopped using Offensive Cloak as I rarely passed it and always failed it on larger battles.
Cloaked movement at least has been used most turns, perhaps as no dice are needed!!!!
Well, cloaks failed again - ended with 5 passes and 4 failures (meant a SE* also died in addition to the crippled sk).
* - SE has a CR of 8 (same as the mass of SPB's there) - and so it died instead of a marginally more valuable SPB.
Force is back in supply atleast.
Over 5117 - Willaim fled after taking all of his fighters as damage and I had to cripple several ships and 6 Lyran PF's - so I killed a CC, but crippled a D6M, KE, BHE, K5S and TGB - plus 6 Lyran PF's died - so another EP win for the Alliance -purely due to the dice.
With the Kzinti front, thats probably 20 Ep's of damage saved for the Alliance or done to the Coalition in the 23 rounds of combat so far 
Lets just hope, I outroll the Alliance by an equal or greater sum for the remaining battles (as Williams remains modestly up on rolls still).