Archive through March 05, 2023
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Archive through March 05, 2023
The Romulans, like the Hydrans, are proving that even an outnumbered fleet can be difficult to contain.
The Romulans started the Alliance turn with two planets (one devastated), 4 BATS, and an SB. They are ending with the same number of everything. This is partly due to the below, and partly due to the fact that Paul managed to cut some Alliance fleets off during Coalition turn 33.
After taking Romulus, the Alliance moved perhaps 100 ships to the Fed/Klingon front. I still think this was the right decision. But it does mean that the Romulans will collect about 100VP that the Alliance could probably have denied them by keeping those fleets on the Romulan front.
Well alas tactics have zero value when the dice just say 'yes' to one side and 'no' to the other.
8 battles in a row where the Coalition failed to roll higher than a 3.
Average for last 11 battles is
VBIR 3.55
Alliance 4.18
Coalition 2.55
Average for turn so far is 3.32, 4.11 and 3.04
28 battle rounds and PIP difference is greater than 1.
(Average for the game had been Alliance outrolled by 1 Pip for 3 battles per player turn - so 28 is a massive increase in the outrolling)
ESSC is 8.25 v 6.75 - and that includes the 12 rolled (which had no effect) for the Coalition in the last small battle (prior to that it was 8.57 v 6.00).
Right roll at the right time is nearly 100% for the Alliance (1 Coalition ship lived when both sides rolled 4) - but the rest of the time, they get enough.
Only dice are where both sides are the same (although I think I have more chances) is capture - which is zero for both sides so far.
But the dice, are just crushing the Coalition.
Modest battles where modest rolls can be dealt with, almost every one this turn has seen VBIR go up 1 or 2 and William rolls a 5 or 6.
Rage against the dice more.
Well, dice generally keep giving to William and taking from me.
About the best result due to William rolling low is a FF surived ESSC - but due to poor dice, 3 crippled D5's died in a persuit.
William is at 100% success on his 7 or 8 pursuits - I am at 66% (or 33%)- can't remember if 1 or 2 6's was rolled on my 3 pursuits.
Other than getting a very occasional cripple (when I roll 3 good dice in a row in effect) - dice remain very much one way.
In ESSC - if rolls was other way round, the map would be pretty different (Alliance would have had to retreat from a key hex, I would have been able to live and retreat into a key hex and an Out of Supply fleet would have recovered 8 Fighters!).
ESSC remains at 7.67 v 6.5
VBIR is 3.29.
Alliance is at 3.84 (which includes very relevant 3,4, 5 and 6 - i.e. the minimum roll for success was rolled!!!)
Coalition is at 3.29 (which includes a wasted 5 and 6...)
It might also be fair to say, William wasted a 5 or 6 roll,.... can't remember when this turn, but it must have happened....probably.
Said another way - thats 146 Dice Pips for the Alliance and only 115 for me....
...and several battles remain to be done.
So it's a slaughter on the dice.
Just done a quick analysis on a some of the battles, which does highlight 'timing'.
Generally, the higher my compot, the worse I roll and the lower my compot, the better I roll.
With Compot over 50, average is 3.8 v 2.92
With Compot below 50, average is 3.45 v 3.125
(Limited data but compot over 100 is 3.5 v 2!)
Actually, 3 highest compots,I rolled 2,2,3 v Williams 4,3,5 and we have to go to the 5th highest compot for me to get above a 4 with 2,2,3,2,5 rolled- and 8th highest compot for William to get less than a 3, with 4,3,5,5,3,4,4,2 rolled).
So, fair to say, the higher the compots on both sides, the more damage I have been taking overall and Williams has been taking less?
To add to the above, as far as I can tell, I rolled OK in two larger battles, 1602 and 2003 (the latter isn't in the above assessment) but very poorly in the largest battle and generally poorly in the other larger battles.
But certainly, a lot of my 5 and 6's were rolled with just BATS or small forces defending!
Well, some dice did get better - but a very good turn for the Alliance.
Overall turns dice : -
Normal Combat VBIR 3.18, Alliance 3.45 and Coalition 3.22.
William rolled badly in some very irrelevant battles when I rolled well (1 v 5, 1 v 3, 1 v 1, 2 v 5 and 6 v 5) - so if your picking when do roll good, when to roll average and when to roll the right number, I think William will agree, timing was 99% of the additional damage done in addition to his generally good plan (which with a couple of OK rolls for me, wouldn't have been as good).
Over 60+ rolls, I think I got 1 lucky roll - which was getting enough damage to kill the only Hydran Scout in 416, as both sides went low on BIR and VBIR went up 2 (I only rolled a 3 though).
But thats it I think?
Certainly got unlucky on a lot of rolls which meant the Kzinti took alot less pain than they should have done.
I rolled poorly or just below what what was needed in several ESSC battles - and William rolled just enough or just over to kill me in several battles.
ESSC ended 7.5 v 6.21
ESSC rewards good rolling - and in 14 rolls
12 - 1 Coalition roll (not relevant on end result)
11 - 3 Alliance rolls (1 was not relevant on end result)
10 - 1 Alliance roll and 1 Coalition roll (which wasn't relevant)
9 - 2 Alliance rolls and 1 Coalition roll
So 6 v 3 on 'good rolls'.
What is annoying, is if the dice was swopped, the turn for the Coalition would have actually been OK - rather than a bloodbath (as some supply issues would have been very different). So it's not as if a lucky roll was needed by me to do anything - William was getting them all the time.... and I generally wasn't.
Pursuits - 100% for William and 50% or 75% for me.
No captures, no Shock rolls and a 55% Cloak Success level.
Average for game on cloaks is now 60.6%.
So - cloaks remain poor, pursuits for me remain poor (and excellent for William), ESSC rolls are massively better for the Alliance and combat dice are in Williams favour still.
At least only 1 turn to go.
Alliance turn 33 is done. The Alliance ship-count gain was +15. But at this point, that's not so important. What's more important is the VP situation. The four rows of Klingon hexes closest to the Federation have been heavily invaded. In that region, all planets are captured and all BATS are killed. But the Klingons still have the three SB in that region, and most of the provinces are disputed, with a few being held by one side or the other.
Only a single Fed DN is deeper into Klingon space.
On the Romulan front, the Alliance fleets couldn't kill any bases this turn. But they are better positioned to potentially do so on turn 34.
And turn 34 starts
Lyrans roll a 8 - and end on 357 (which is exactly average) and end Survey 1 Ep up (was down from turn 2 to turn 31).
Klingons roll a 5 - and end on 218 - average would be 231 and 17 Ep's down, from pretty much turn 4. They rolled an average of 2.5 Pips for the last 6 turns - failing to find the 9th Province.
Romulans end up 2 Ep's and bang on the average of 175.
So fair to say, Lyrans and Romulans did OK on numbers and timing - but Klingons did horrible on both.
Lyrans build 3 x FF, convert a CW to a CVL, repair 49.5 Ep's of ships and spend 3 Eps on repairs.
617 is a partial grid and it repairs a AD5 and CWE.
Romulans build a SN and spend 7.5 Ep's on repairs.
Klingons probably build a D5V, AD5, D5, 6 x F5 and E4 and spend 17 Ep's on repairs.
They have a partial grid in 2318...
Working out what to do with it!
The 2318 Partial Grid gives supplies to 15 ships - and so the built AD5 is downgraded to a D5!
Operational movement has started.
C34 op moves are underway.
The Hydran-held planet (416) is under attack. This was expected.
In Klingon space, the Klingons are attacking a lot of Fed-held planets. They can probably set things up so that, absent reserves, they are in a position to retake 4 planets or so. But the Feds have 2 reserves in range of the planets that are under attack. And if the Klingons attack more planets, further reserves will be in range of the new attacks.
On the Fed/Kzinti border, the Coalition is trying to kill crippled SB 2103. They definitely have some chance of succeeding. I'm not sure just how good this chance will be, but it's definitely non-trivial. I pretty much had to allow this possibility. I didn't want to park a whole lot up there, then have them ignore the area, leaving me outmatched in the center and South.
C34 - Operational Movement is nearly completed.
Fair to say - the Romulans are 100% stymied - the plan to leave modest forces forward deployed worked, but numbers of Alliance ships pretty much stop the chance of major havoc to be done.
A few critical good Alliance ESSC rolls on turn 33 messed up a similar offensive into Federation space - but due to stuff being Out of Supply and not able to reach the inner planets (North West and around Orion space).
I suppose only the Kzinti front and Hydran front resembles the final Coalition offensive of the war!
2103 will hopefully finally fall......although the damage is has done by not dying is massive.
If it had died on 31 or 33...... perhaps I would have been able to raid all those defenceless Federation planets (and some have recovered from Devastation) - so the 20 Vp's in killing the SB will be offset by atleast 20 Vp's in extra Federation income 
Hurrah - 2103 has finally died.
The Coalition won the approach and then rolled a 1...which wouldn't have killed it, but for once VBIR was nice and it went up 1....
The owed 6 wasn't enough to save the Mauler (which promptly then crippled - shock rolls have been around 50% for the game) from Mauling the crippled SB dead.
Elsewhere - dice sill mean I often miss the enemy in ESSC - but perhaps one of the top 3 ESSC combats of the game, I did roll enough (needed 6+) to keep Orion neutral - which is 20 Vp's in effect.
William rolled a 12 .... so I had to cripple a D7C though!!
Dice - Alliance rules generally
First 12 normal rolls it's 3.08 v 3.5!
ESSC (3 rolls) it's 6.33 v 8
Pretty much the story of the game in ESSC - roll 2D6-1 for the Coalition and 2D6+1 for the Alliance.
Well dice gods go from bad to worse really.
19 combat rolls we are at 3.21 v 3.95
Once more I seem to have returned to 'roll the highest to still fail....'. (best recent roll of a 5, 1 to 5 did nothing and a 6 would have crippled something!)
Most critical battle for probably 20 turns - VBIR goes down 2, I roll a 1 and William rolls a 6.
Thank goodness no reserve went to that battle.
(If I lost the battle, Orion would have rejoined the Federation AND Klingon space would have been cut in two)
ESSC is standing at 5.8 v 6.4
Another Alliance ship lived ESSC when it probably should have died.
Once more I seem to have returned to 'roll the highest to still fail....'.
Not too many battles to finish thank goodness.
And C34 combat is over.
Firstly, for once I can say every major plan worked.
Alas, the damage could have been alot better though - the dice just sucked.
Normal Combat (23 rounds), VBIR was 2.35, Coalition, 3.22 and Alliance 3.83.
Net result - another turn of more cripples taken by me and less Alliance cripples.
ESSC was just as wide with 8 rolls - 5.25 v 6.125 (I rolled 2 2's!).
ESSC - should have seen 5 Alliance ships killed on average - got only 3.
William got the lucky cripple chance - on a total of 1/6 chance across all the ESSC combats.
(1 chance of 3/36 and 3 chances of 1/36).
That brief summary of this turns ESSC is pretty much mapped across the bulk of the game - right roll at the right time for William, wrong roll for me at the right time.
The main 6 plans
1) Capture 1802 from the Kzinti and cut the bulk of the Kzinti off from supply.
2) Capture 416 from the Hydrans and cut the bulk of the Hydrans off from supply (the Supply Tug will keep some in supply though).
3) Kill SB 2103.
4) Keep Orion Neutral
5) Get the Southern Federation Front Forces back into supply
6) Cut the 5216 Federation Forces from Supply (Romulan bases of 5818 and 5819 are therefore safe).
Dead for the Turn
Lyrans BC, CW, TGC plus PF pods, DWE
Klingon D7, 2 x D5,2 x F5
Hydrans Battle Tug, 2 x HR, 2 x CU, HN
Federation NCL 5 x FF, NAC, FFE, SB
Gorn DD
Alas, the Federation was able to get more ships into Federation space, so it's not all good for me, for the last Alliance turn.
Coalition Turn 34 is done.
Reserves have been set up.
Lyrans cover the Western Front, Klingons cover Klingon Space and Romulans 'New Romulan Space'.
After 34 turns I forgot Strategic Movement can't get next to an enemy shups unless there is a node in the hex (and you outnumber the adjacent enemies) - alas the Romulans have 1 Fleet easily pinable, 1 possibly pinable and 1 unpinable.
Field Repair put the Lyrans and Romulans close to maximum deficit spending - the Klingons have 1.8 Eps of deficit spending left.
On the non-combat dice - for the turn, Shock rolls ended with a 50% pass level (and around 55% pass level for the game).
Pursuit was pretty even for the two sides.
Amazingly - no captures!!
Lots of fun options for the Alliance.
Had a quick look how crucial ESSC is in reducing enemy hulls.
Based on both sides rolling 7's - this turn would have seen 4 Alliance Ships killed and 3 Alliance Ships Crippled - and no Coalition ships killed or crippled. (4 Combats was +4, other 4 Combats was +2 - Defender was generally -5 or worse, 3 was -4 and 1 was -3 though).
In some combats, it may have been possible for the Alliance to Convert 1 Ship killed into 2 ships crippled (as there was multiple ships in the hex) - but it doesn't take into account any possible pursuits would could have then happened for simplicity.
(For simplicity, it also doesn't include the 'effective' result against the LC - as it had 3 Fighters, in effect 2 Casualties against it, as it would be no damage and it retreats fighterless)
So 4K/3C v nothing would happen with average rolls .
With just 3 killed and no crippled AND 1 Coalition ship crippled - that seems a pretty significant and unexpected result?
Under rolling in ESSC seems to create a larger inbalance versus most normal combat rolls?
Kzinti economy, turn 34
All survey rolls are irrelevant. Not bothering.
Survey EP 24
Offmap 17
Provinces 1
Total 42
Percentage 0.5
Income 21
From last turn 0.5
Scrap DW 1
Total Money 22.5
Repairs 22.5, balance 0
Hydran economy, turn 34
Survey EP 22
Offmap 17
Provinces 1
Total before exhaustion 40
Percentage 0.5
Income 20
From last turn 0.5
Total Money 20.5
Repairs
Old Colonies 1.5
Builds
LN 4
3CU 7.5
3HN 7.5
Subtotal 19
Total spending 20.5, balance 0
2CP available
Federation economy, turn 34
Survey EP 34
Offmap 6
Capital 59
Planets 35
Provinces 84
NZ (incl. Planets) 9.8
Conquered from Romulans 26
Conquered from Klingons 2
Income 255.8
Percentage 0.75
Exhausted income 191.85
From last turn -32.5
Scrap E4, AD5 3
Total Money 162.35
Builds
14FF 42
12NCL 60
Command point 5
Battle pod 8
7FF (overbuilds) 42
Subtotal 157
Conversion
FV 1
Total spent 158
Remaining after econ 4.35
Command points: 3+1=4
Gorn Economy, turn 34
Survey EP 12
Offmap 12
Capital 24
Planets 15
Provinces 36
NZ (incl. Planets) 8.2
Conquered from Romulans 9
Income 116.2
Percentage 0.75
Exhausted Income 87.15
From last turn -15.25
Total Money 71.9
Builds
4DD 12
3HD 15
6DD (overbuild) 36
Command point 5
Subtotal 68
Homeless lines for 4 Kzinti 2
Remaining after econ 1.9
Command points 0+1=1
Lots of Overbuilding - no real value in repairing Federation or Gorns ships as too far from the front line and 20 repaired ships don't add any VP's - but 10-14 overbuilt ships is 2 Vp's.
Op moves have started.....
On predicting the end positions - about the only event I wasn't expecting, is the Romulans will not be wiped out.
After losing their Homeworlds - they probably could have been pretty much evicted from the Map.
Those Fed and Gorn ships which moved to Federation Space will probably allow the Roms to get 40 Vp's..... but alas I think it will have got William over 100 Vp's in Federation space.
Combined with killing so few ships in ESSC (and William being the king in ESSC) - I predict an Alliance Tactical win.
LOL wrong game
Op moves have finished.
Having never got past turn 23 or so before, it's pretty clear the last 5 or so turns have been an absolute disaster for the Coalition.
You live an learn.
I think it would have been far better to have tried to stabilise the front line in Western Federation space - about the only saving grace is I think the dice would have still meant that strategy would have failed - but to a smaller margin!
The Eastern Klingon Borders would have still been raided, but he has been able to swarm across most of Southern Klingon Space and and Alliance forces even reached Hydran space!
Being able to ignore supply, retro and 'turn 35', I think will mean turn 34 will be very bloody.
I was aware the final Alliance turn would be very different, but not to this degree!
1509 - first combat about to be done.