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Statistical Analysis of Weapons
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Sgt_G
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 16, 2012 10:47 pm    Post subject: Statistical Analysis of Weapons Reply with quote

I've been analyzing the statistics of weapons and damage caused, comparing FedCmdr to ACTA, to see how well everything was ported over.

At first glance, we see that the Photon does 8 points of damage in FedCmdr and 4 points in ACTA. Likewise, the Disruptor does 4 points in FedCmdr at medium range and 2 points in ACTA. Ergo, one might think it's a simple 2-to-1 conversion factor to port weapons over to the ACTA game engine. However, once the to-hit probabilities are factored in, we see that it's not so simple.

I'll break this up into multiple posts to make formatting easier.
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 16, 2012 10:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

First, let's looks at the Photon, Disruptor, and Phasers in FedCmdr. Here is a chart showing six of each of these weapons with maximum, average, and minimum damage. That is, if the six dice rolls are all "1", are "1-2-3-4-5-6", and are all "6". (The Photon max/min is 48/0, and the Disruptor min is 0, except at range 0 & 1 where both hit 100% of the time.)


Code:
FedCmdr (6) -- Max/Avg/Min Damage
Range   PHOT   DISR     Ph-1       Ph-2       Ph-3        Ph-4
0        48   30/30   54/39/24   36/33/30   24/23/18   120/110/90
1        48   30/30   48/32/24   30/25/18   24/22/18   120/110/90
2        40   24/20   42/29/18   30/23/18   24/18/6    120/110/90
3        32   24/16   36/26/18   24/21/18    18/6/0    120/110/90
4        32   24/16   30/23/12    18/7/0      6/2/0     120/92/60
5        24   18/12   30/21/12    18/7/0      6/2/0     120/92/60
6        24   18/12   24/13/0     18/7/0      6/2/0     120/77/54
7        24   18/12   24/13/0     18/7/0      6/2/0      90/65/48
8        24   18/12   24/13/0     18/7/0      6/2/0      72/57/42
9        16   18/12    18/6/0     12/4/0      6/1/0      60/48/36
10       16   18/12    18/6/0     12/4/0      6/1/0      48/39/30
11       16   18/12    18/6/0     12/4/0      6/1/0      36/27/18
12       16   18/12    18/6/0     12/4/0      6/1/0      36/27/18
13        8   18/12    18/6/0     12/4/0      6/1/0      36/27/18
14        8   18/12    18/6/0     12/4/0      6/1/0       30/19/6
15        8   18/12    18/6/0     12/4/0      6/1/0       30/19/6
16        8    12/6    12/3/0      6/2/0      0/0/0       30/19/6
17        8    12/6    12/3/0      6/2/0      0/0/0       30/19/6
18        8    12/6    12/3/0      6/2/0      0/0/0       24/10/0
19        8    12/6    12/3/0      6/2/0      0/0/0       24/10/0
20        8    12/6    12/3/0      6/2/0      0/0/0       24/10/0
21        8    12/6    12/3/0      6/2/0      0/0/0       24/10/0
22        8    12/6    12/3/0      6/2/0      0/0/0       24/10/0
23        8    12/6    12/3/0      6/2/0      0/0/0       24/10/0
24        8    12/6    12/3/0      6/2/0      0/0/0       24/10/0
25        8    12/6    12/3/0      6/2/0      0/0/0       24/10/0

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Sgt_G
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 16, 2012 10:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Next, if we look at the weapons in ACTA and fire 12 of each weapon, rolling "1-1-2-2-3-3-4-4-5-5-6-6", we get the following chart. I used 12 shots instead of 6 to make it easier to see the ratio between the two games.

Code:
ACTA: SF (12) -- Average Damage
Range   PHOT   DISR   Ph-1   Ph-2   Ph-3   Ph-4
MAX      48     24     24     24     24     48
0        24     16     20     16     16     40
1        24     16     20     16     16     40
2        24     16     20     16     16     40
3        24     16     20     16      8     40
4        24     16     20     16      6     40
5        24     16     20      8      6     40
6        24     16     20      8      6     40
7        24     16     20      6      0     40
8        16     16     20      6      0     40
9        16     16     10      6      0     40
10       16     16      8      6      0     40
11       16     16      8      6      0     20
12       16     16      8      6      0     20
13       16     12      8      0      0     16
14       16     12      8      0      0     16
15       16     12      8      0      0     16
16        0     12      8      0      0     16
17        0     12      8      0      0     16
18        0     12      8      0      0     16
19        0     12      0      0      0     16
20        0     12      0      0      0     16
21        0     12      0      0      0     16
22        0     12      0      0      0     16
23        0     12      0      0      0     16
24        0     12      0      0      0     16
25        0      0      0      0      0      0

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PostPosted: Thu Feb 16, 2012 10:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

To make it easier to compare the game systems, let's look at the next chart. It combines the FedCmdr and ACTA average damage from 6 and 12 shots, respectively.

Yes, I know that one FedCmdr hex does not necessarily convert to one-inch range in ACTA, but as the maximum range is 25 in FedCmdr and 24 in ACTA, it's a close approximation.

Code:
FedCmdr (6) / ACTA:SF (12) -- Average Damage
Range   PHOT     DISR     Ph-1     Ph-2     Ph-3     Ph-4
0      48/24    30/16    39/20    33/16    23/16   110/40
1      48/24    30/16    32/20    25/16    22/16   110/40
2      40/24    20/16    29/20    23/16    18/16   110/40
3      32/24    16/16    26/20    21/16     6/8    110/40
4      32/24    16/16    23/20     7/16     2/6     92/40
5      24/24    12/16    21/20     7/8      2/6     92/40
6      24/24    12/16    13/20     7/8      2/6     77/40
7      24/24    12/16    13/20     7/6      2/0     65/40
8      24/16    12/16    13/20     7/6      2/0     57/40
9      16/16    12/16     6/10     4/6      1/0     48/40
10     16/16    12/16     6/8      4/6      1/0     39/40
11     16/16    12/16     6/8      4/6      1/0     27/20
12     16/16    12/16     6/8      4/6      1/0     27/20
13      8/16    12/12     6/8      4/0      1/0     27/16
14      8/16    12/12     6/8      4/0      1/0     19/16
15      8/16    12/12     6/8      4/0      1/0     19/16
16      8/0      6/12     3/8      2/0      0/0     19/16
17      8/0      6/12     3/8      2/0      0/0     19/16
18      8/0      6/12     3/8      2/0      0/0     10/16
19      8/0      6/12     3/0      2/0      0/0     10/16
20      8/0      6/12     3/0      2/0      0/0     10/16
21      8/0      6/12     3/0      2/0      0/0     10/16
22      8/0      6/12     3/0      2/0      0/0     10/16
23      8/0      6/12     3/0      2/0      0/0     10/16
24      8/0      6/12     3/0      2/0      0/0     10/16
25      8/0      6/0      3/0      2/0      0/0     10/0



A few observations now come to light.

-- For the most part, all weapons keep a good relationship of damage to other weapons within each of the game engines.
-- All weapons lose a lot of knife-fighting damage.
-- Most weapons lose a lot of long-range damage.
-- The Phaser-4 got super-nerfed inside overload weapon's range, but does better at long-range sniping.
-- The Photon lost all long-range to-hit ability and cannot snipe at all now.
-- The Disruptor maintains too much damage ability at long range.

Mathematically, the Disruptor is too good when compared to FedCmdr and also how it relates to other weapons within the ACTA engine. Someone suggest changing the Disruptor from "Range 24, Accurate +1, Multi-Hit 2" to make it "Range 24, Accurate +1, Kill Zone 12". This would keep the average damage at 16 for ranges up to 12", but then drops it from 12 to 6 out to maximum range. This doesn't fix it entirely, but it does go a long way to bring it back into alignment with everything else.

I'm playing around with numbers to see if I can't come up with something to help give the Photon its long-range sniping back.
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Nerroth
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 16, 2012 11:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

One thing to bear in mind is not just how much raw damage each weapon scores, but the odds it has of scoring criticals (or "lost" bulkhead hits), especially with the likes of the Devastating trait to consider; even one photon hit can potentially trigger a more dangerous amount of follow-on damage than a disruptor or phaser can.
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 17, 2012 12:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The games are far to different to simply look at how the 'raw' damage numbers have ported over in isolation.

For example.

Shield leaks - very different, and make Photons very mean in ACTA. 12 disrupter shots will average .66 critical levels, 12 photon shots will average 2.66 crit levels due to multi hit 4 and devastating.

In addition you may want to consider the effect of the differences in;
Shields, Reload, overload, Manouvering, system damage and Seekers.


Longer range sniping with photons - that could be far to potent, unless you stop the leaky hits and heavy crits they cause.
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 17, 2012 12:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

RE: Photons, all the more reason to shoot everything else first to take down as much shielding as possible to give the Photons time to just tear the target apart.
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 17, 2012 3:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I always though photons should have been given +1 to hit at less than half range. You will never get better than 50% probability even at 2". I don't know about FC but in SFB you couldn't miss at 0-1, and only missed 1/6 at 2". and then dropped off from there.

In ACTA if you over 7.5" you will only hit 33%. Weapon is over half range so -1.
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 17, 2012 5:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

storeylf wrote:
12 disrupter shots will average .66 critical levels, 12 photon shots will average 2.66 crit levels due to multi hit 4 and devastating.
As in FedCmdr / SFB, the Disruptor does about haf the damage of a Photon but fires twice as often, so you need to look at 24 DISR shots to 12 PHOT shots to see how well they stack up.
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storeylf
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 17, 2012 10:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
As in FedCmdr / SFB, the Disruptor does about haf the damage of a Photon but fires twice as often, so you need to look at 24 DISR shots to 12 PHOT shots to see how well they stack up.You did not look at twice as many disrupter shots when looking at average damage?


Even looking at disrupters firing twice as often the photon is still 'devastating', so inflict a lot more levels of critical, especially against a shielded target. Given that the second crit level and above also does extra damage, that also means they rack up more internal damage, as well as degrade a ship quicker with crit effects. They also are more likley to inflict escalating crits as they jump 2 levels a time.

Remember the amount of shots that go through shields is not in anyway affected by range or accuracy. You have the same rate of internal hits at range 15 with photons as you do with phasers in the kill zone, 1 in 6 in both cases.

Then look at shield boosting. In this game you can repair (or reinforce) ~1/3 of your max shields each turn if you want to spend the action, that's very different to FedCom. In the smallish Fed vs Klink game I played last week the Feds ability to keep replacing so much shield each turn seriously degraded my 'net' damage over the course of the game. Photons inflict more unrepairable internal damage and inflict worse crits.

Quote:
RE: Photons, all the more reason to shoot everything else first to take down as much shielding as possible to give the Photons time to just tear the target apart.


Not necessarily. Photons inflict a crit 1/6 of the time but for 2 levels. Phasers inflict a crit 1/3 the time but as a normal crit, and don't lose hits to bulk heads. Say you have a ship with 4 photons and 6 phaser 1s and 2 phaser 3s at close range. If the target has no shield the photons average 8 dice of damage for 1.3 crits (2.6 levels). The phasers average 13 hits and ~4.3 crits, i.e. the phasers inflict so many more hits that means more crits. If the target has shields then both weapon systems inflict the same number of crit levels on average as both systems need a 6 to go through the shields, so the extra hit rate on the phasers does not help inflict crits.

So if you are wanting to maximise crits on the target, then you fire your photons first and phasers second, hoping for the photons to take down as much shields as possble, at which point the extreme hit rate of phasers will kick in as crit chances. Additionally you will also inflict a bit extra damage overall as the phasers don't lose on bulkhead hits.
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 17, 2012 6:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I have been looking at this as well but the problem is if you balance Photons aginst Disruptors do you then have to balnce Plasmas? I really thing there was a mistake making all 5 Plasma have the same range. 18" work fine for Gs,Fs and even Ds but seems to be really shorting Ss and Rs. If you open Photons up you will have to look at changing Plasmas as well.

What might be a easier option to purse is a push to add a Proximity Special Action. This would increase the Range of a Photon to 24" (Range 13" to 24" would stil only hit on a 5 or 6) but make them Multihit 2 instead. As with Overload Special Action if you get a shot at a target closer than 15" you could still fire your Photons as normal Weapons.

If such a option became avaliable then the Range on Plasma Ss and Rs should open up to 36" with the Special Action. Then you would write the Proxity Rules so it would apply to Plasmas as well giving the Heavy Torpdeos the longer range with a additional minus one to Attack Die applied. (At Range 27"+ a Type S would do No Damage but a Type R would do 3 Attack Die of Damage.
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 18, 2012 5:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dal,

I was thinking along the lines of Prox-fused Photons, too. Two questions: do they by-pass shields on a "6"? And are they Devistating?
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 18, 2012 2:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

One Devastating +1 critical hit is better than two vanilla criticals. Devastating crits cause an increase of two critical levels to one system, the vanilla crits will probably spread their damage around. That's less likely to push the criticals to Escalate levels, scores less bonus damage, and is easier to repair with the All Hands On Deck! special action.

Seriously, photons are devastating and need no improvement. No proximity photon option.
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 18, 2012 4:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Garth if a Proximity Option was added every thing should still function exactly the same. A 5 hits shields a 6 bypasses. If for some reason that provide to devastating as Terry thinks drop the multi hit altogether.
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 18, 2012 10:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If you add Proximity, you just have a very expensive (per energy) Disrupter ---

Proximity only does half damage of a regular Photon ---
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