There is a "real world military" topic in which some purely military issues may get slightly into politics, and this is tolerated so long as no other rules (i.e., no insults) are broken. Those who have participated in this topic know that our non-US participants often have very different views than you are used to. It won't hurt you to hear another side of the issue and you may learn something. It should also be noted that some of those who post frequently in that topic simply have no idea what they're talking about; be polite in alerting them to this fact.
| By Carl-Magnus Carlsson (Hardcore) on Saturday, October 31, 2026 - 02:23 am: Edit |
The Trump deal with Russia may be done but in a twist, I didn't see coming, there may be no-one willing to buy the diesel for fear of being hold accountable for breaking the law.
| By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Saturday, October 31, 2026 - 11:35 am: Edit |
For what it's worth, and in defense of Jswile's typo, I've heard it called "Motham AFB" back in the day, as a bit of an in-joke about the boneyard being, in essence, a mothball fleet.
| By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Saturday, October 31, 2026 - 11:38 am: Edit |
Yesterday, attackers in a small boat affixed two limpet mines to a Panamanian-flagged tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, with detonations triggering an engine-room fire that temporarily disabled the tanker; the crew were unharmed and the blaze was later extinguished.
This is the first successful limpet mine attack in the Strait since the war began in February.
| By Mike Grafton (Mike_Grafton) on Sunday, November 01, 2026 - 10:31 am: Edit |
IIRC, the KC10's had their booms removed. So maybe they will be refueling drogue only?
| By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Sunday, November 01, 2026 - 02:14 pm: Edit |
Mike Grafton, yes, KC-10A early model air tankers routinely have the fuel booms removed prior to being put up for auction.
One of the aircraft that has been refurbished is to be turned over to Omega Air Services (a civilian company that apparently operates air fueling services could purchase a fuel boom commercially, but it is not known if that has been done in this case.)
It is known that the four aircraft restored to service were still in reserve status, and had not been auctioned off, or even scheduled to be auctioned, so it is an open question as to if they in fact had their booms removed.
I have seen an advertisement for Omega Air that stated that they had the ability to refuel both aircraft and drones from “Two separate refueling systems” on their aircraft.
Reading between the lines, it is apparent that Egypt, Libya and one other “North African nation” will be receiving one refurbished KC10-A extender aircraft each. What they will be using the aircraft for, has yet to be explained.
| By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, November 02, 2026 - 03:59 pm: Edit |
Infantry: Google At War
November 1, 2026: Google has many uses in espionage, combat, and military planning. For spies, Google, if available in their area of operation, can quickly gather needed information or communicate with contacts. Google Search, Maps, YouTube, Gmail, and Google Workspace are available to anyone with an Internet or Starlink connection. If Google services are not available, the spy can use Starlink to send and receive information. In combat, Google is invaluable wherever troops are, but especially when trapped behind enemy lines; Internet or Starlink service is available. This is how it has worked in the war in Ukraine, and it has played a major role in Ukraine's victory and continuing operations to reclaim Crimea and the eastern provinces still under Russian control.
Google is essential in wartime for the same reasons it is useful in peacetime. Google is a U.S. technology firm whose most profitable product is its Search engine. Google also provides a wide range of globally available online services, including software, hardware, and cloud storage. Founded in 1998, it took three years to become a corporation and provide relatively primitive search capabilities. By 2005, Google introduced advertising to fund its operations and became profitable in 2001; Google Maps, Gmail, Images, and News were operational. By 2010, Google acquired YouTube, and it introduced Android, Chrome, and Voice. Google+ and Street View launched. By 2015, Google introduced Google+, Drive, Waze, and Classroom, and Alphabet Inc. became Google's parent company. By 2020, Google introduced Google Assistant, Lens, and Duplex; Google+ ended, and Alphabet's capitalization reached $1 trillion. Since then, Google released Bard AI and Gemini 3; AI Mode and Overviews now dominate search. The Google Health app lets users with Google-compatible wristwatches manage sleep and movement.
Google dominates search worldwide; continued innovation keeps it a global phenomenon. Google's revenue has grown from $307 billion in 2023 to over half a trillion this year. Within the next five years, Google may become the first firm to reach $1 trillion in annual revenue.
Google Maps is a web-based mapping and navigation service that provides turn-by-turn GPS directions, satellite imagery, and real-time traffic information. It works by constantly monitoring GPS signals from people walking, running, or driving. Currently, it offers over a quarter of a trillion locations. Google Street View shows you locations from different angles and perspectives. You can receive spoken assistance from Gemini integration
FYEO
| By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, November 02, 2026 - 04:00 pm: Edit |
Counter-Terrorism: Terrorists Use AI to Build Better Weapons
November 1, 2026: Some Houthi Shia rebels in Yemen have, with the assistance of Iranian technicians, been undertaking three different weapons programs. The first involves designing a guided rocket that uses an off-the-shelf, consumer-grade flight computer to power a terminal guidance system that homes in on specific targets such as trucks, armored vehicles, field artillery, or anti-aircraft systems.
Intelligence agencies identified a group of Houthi and Iranian advisers in northern Yemen running three weapons development programs: the first was a guided rocket that used a commodity phone-class flight computer with final-phase homing guidance; the second involved developing and building a multi-stage ballistic missile with a range of at least 2,000 kilometers. The third effort was developing a multi-use missile, with one variant being a hypersonic glide vehicle that could travel at high speeds over distances depending on the weight of explosives carried. A 100 kg warhead traveled a short distance; a 10 kg warhead could travel hundreds of kilometers.
The developers used Claude AI because they did not have access to software engineers who would work for Islamic terrorists. Houthis used Claude Code instead of human software engineers to develop the GNC (Guidance, Navigation, and Control) software that steers and stabilizes a flying vehicle. For example, they used Claude to integrate an open-source autopilot onto a phone-class flight computer, write control and position-estimation software, tune control settings, run a firmware build pipeline, and perform flight simulation. The actors managed several Claude instances at once, assigning each a role, much as a lead would delegate work to a small engineering team: one instance wrote the code, another did research, and a third reviewed the code the first instance produced.
Western CyberWar safeguards blocked many of their requests, but not all. The actors used a variety of tactics to evade our safeguards, including hiding their goals and the software's intended use, and they split their work across multiple sessions, so no single session revealed their full intent.
These actors sustained efforts to develop guided weapons, including using Claude to design guidance software. No evidence shows the actors fielded an operational device, but they did test-fire a guided rocket. This field test appears to have failed: within hours, the actors returned to Claude to figure out why.
Expect more of this. AI systems democratize expertise and capability. Most of the time that’s a good thing, but sometimes it’s not. Claude is Anthropic’s AI assistant designed to help users solve complex problems, write, code, analyze data, and collaborate efficiently across tasks. Claude is a next-generation AI assistant built for problem solvers, with capabilities ranging from writing and research to coding and data analysis. It serves as a versatile thinking partner, helping users refine ideas, structure content, and tackle multi-step projects precisely. Claude can help craft professional emails, social media posts, reports, and other written materials, iterating with users to preserve clarity, tone, and style.
Claude's primary functions include Intelligent Writing and Collaboration: Claude helps users brainstorm, refine, and polish ideas. It can summarize documents, support creative writing, and help with collaborative projects, making complex tasks more manageable. Coding Assistance: Claude can review code, debug, and explain solutions in multiple programming languages, including Python, JavaScript, and React. It can plan multi-step tasks, adapt as projects evolve, and scale from small scripts to enterprise-level development. Data Analysis and Research: Claude can analyze spreadsheets, interpret charts, evaluate decisions, and extract insights from uploaded documents, PDFs, or screenshots. It also integrates with cloud services like Google Drive, Gmail, and Calendar to bring context into problem-solving. Conversational and Customizable: Accessible via chat or API.
Claude is designed to be helpful, honest, and steerable. Users can direct its tone, personality, and behavior, making interactions more natural and tailored to specific needs. Integration and Productivity: Claude works with local files and cloud-based apps to organize folders, build reports, and automate workflows. It is integrated with platforms like Notion and Quora, enhancing productivity and learning experiences.
There are two types of Claude. The standard Claude is a powerful system for developing complex entities. The other version is Quick Claude, which Anthropic describes as able to develop simpler entities faster and at less cost than any human team. Anthropic describes Claude as most effective for medical, legal, or STEM practitioners. This version of Claude also helps professionals, students, or teams who need AI to quickly analyze problems and deliver implementable solutions. As usual, Claude also boosts productivity by surfacing actionable items as you work through problems, providing clear insights, and helping you develop the software you need.
FYEO
| By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, November 02, 2026 - 04:00 pm: Edit |
Submarines: Taiwan Hai Kun-Class Submarines
October 31, 2026: Taiwan’s first of eight diesel-electric Hai Kun-class attack submarines, manufactured locally. The first is the ROCS (Republic of China Ship) Hai Kun/SS-711, launched in late 2023 and set to enter service by year-end. It is 70 meters long, uses diesel-electric propulsion with rechargeable lithium-ion batteries to extend submerged operations, and features an X-shaped stern rudder to improve shallow-water maneuverability.
Maximum depth is about 400 meters. It has six standard 533mm torpedo tubes that launch MK 48 Mod6 AT heavyweight torpedoes and UGM-84L Harpoon anti-ship missiles. The torpedoes use active or passive sonar to guide them to their targets.
Six years ago, Taiwan undertook an expensive upgrade to its defenses against a Chinese invasion. This included ordering nearly $2 billion in American weapons. The purchase includes 135 SLAM-ER Standoff Land Attack Missile - Expanded Response missiles, 11 HIMARS High Mobility Artillery Rocket System guided missile launchers, and 6 MS-110 reconnaissance pods.
The AGM-84K SLAM-ER entered service in 2000. It is a 675-kg cruise missile with a range of 270 kilometers, a speed of 855 kilometers per hour, and a GPS/shape-recognition guidance system that has proved very accurate. The pilot can change the target or abort the mission remotely at any time. SLAM-ER costs nearly a million dollars each and has a 220 kg warhead based on the one used on the Tomahawk cruise missile. SLAM-ER is a scaled-up Harpoon anti-ship missile.
HIMARS rocket launcher vehicles fire GPS-guided rockets at targets nearly a hundred kilometers distant. Half of the new HIMARS order uses heavier, armored trucks. These heavy trucks typically serve as wreckers to retrieve stuck vehicles. HIMARS can also fire larger, longer-range ATACMS rockets with a 300-kilometer range, as well as PrSM missiles with a 500-kilometer range.
Perhaps the most useful item ordered is the MS-110 reconnaissance pods. These are digital, high-resolution, multi-spectral camera pods, usually carried by an F-16 fighter jet. These pods look like large, streamlined bombs and use digital cameras to photograph large areas at high resolution and in Multispectral Imaging. This means the high-resolution digital photos are not only in color but also capture data across seven bands of the electromagnetic spectrum. This includes wavelengths visible and invisible to the human eye, making it difficult to hide objects and electronic signals with camouflage. This type of camera is superior to film cameras because it requires no film development, and software can analyze digital images more easily than relying mostly on human photo interpreters. The MS-110's infrared/heat sensor can record everything in the aircraft's flight path, horizon to horizon. This means the pod can be carried on an F-16 flying just outside Chinese territorial waters, which extend 22 kilometers from the coast, and photograph Chinese territory more than 300 kilometers inland. The pod records many gigabytes of data to onboard storage devices and can also transmit less detailed data immediately to a ground station. The pilot can also see what the pod sees, using one of the cockpit displays. Like targeting pods, recon pods are also designed to take high-resolution pictures of large swaths of terrain below, even as the aircraft moves at 15 kilometers per minute.
FYEO
| By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, November 02, 2026 - 04:01 pm: Edit |
Information Warfare: CEPA Explains It All for You
October 31, 2026: CEPA (Center for European Policy Analysis) is an American-based, nonpartisan nonprofit think tank that specializes in improving American and European cooperation in governance and the transatlantic alliance through research on governance, multiple levels of security, military affairs, and the technologies that support these efforts. CEPA is headquartered in Washington, DC, with branches in Brussels and London that provide evaluations to commercial and government leaders and analysts. It conducts research, distributes and publishes analysis, and hosts seminars and similar events on global political, military, and technology issues.
CEPA also runs the Defense Tech Initiative, which brings policymakers, military officials, industry leaders, and technology experts together to leverage emerging and disruptive technologies. The initiative focuses on enhancing collective defense, preparing for future threats, and fostering transatlantic cooperation in areas such as cyber, drones, propulsion systems, and advanced weapons. By coordinating assessments and encouraging public-private cooperation, CEPA strives to maximize military capabilities and, as the Ukrainians have recently demonstrated, the ability to innovate their way to victory over a larger adversary.
With all the military threats currently active, attention should focus on the countries most likely to cause problems or spark outbreaks of fighting. To do this, we must try to determine which nation has the most effective armed forces. For example, the top ten armed forces in the world by number of troops are:
1. China
2. India
3. United States
4. Russia
5. France
6. Japan
7. Germany
8. Brazil
9. Italy
10. Britain
The top ten by military power differ: United States, China, Russia, India, Britain, South Korea, Pakistan, Japan, Israel, and France.
Note that the top ten by military spending in 2023 is quite different.
1 United States: $916 billion, which is 3.4 percent of GDP and 37 percent of global defense spending
2 China: $296 billion, 1.7 percent and 12 percent of global defense spending
3 Russia: $109 billion, 5.9 percent and 4.5 percent of global defense spending
4 India: $ 83.6 billion, 2.4 percent and 3.4 percent of global defense spending
5 Saudi Arabia: $75.6 billion, 7.1 percent and 3.1 percent of global defense spending
6 Britain: $74.9 billion, 2.3 percent and 3.1 percent of global defense spending
7 Germany $66.8, 1.5 percent and 2.7 percent of global defense spending
8 Ukraine $64.8, 37 percent and 2.7 percent of global defense spending
9 France $61.3, 2.1 percent and 2.5 percent of global defense spending
10 Japan $50.2, 1.2 percent and 2.1 percent of global defense spending
Another factor is the impact of the Ukraine War, which began in February 2022 and continues in 2025. That war, the first between industrialized nations since 1945, will eventually end. That will mean a shift to national reconstruction in Ukraine. NATO nations have promised substantial post-war economic rebuilding aid so Ukraine can integrate it into its war plans. The Netherlands announced it would spend several billion dollars on aid to Ukraine in 2024 and 2025. Germany's GDP is over $4 trillion, while the Netherlands' is about $1 trillion. Germany sent $8 billion in military aid to Ukraine in 2024. Considering its smaller size, the Netherlands has been a major supplier of aid to Ukraine. The Netherlands and Germany plan to provide even larger amounts of aid for the post-war reconstruction.
The Netherlands' 2024 aid to Ukraine includes a wide array of weapons and services. It will include more air defense systems, drones, and munitions for weapons Ukraine already has. Services include training for Ukrainian F-16 pilots and aircraft maintainers. In 2024, a larger share of the aid went to economic reconstruction and current government financing.
Unable to do sufficient damage to Ukrainian armed forces, Russia has been concentrating many of its missile attacks on economic targets. These must be repaired or rebuilt, especially the targets that provide electricity, heat or clean water and sanitation services. The Russians want Ukrainian civilians to suffer. The Dutch can relate to this. During World War 2, German troops occupied the Netherlands, and toward the end of the war, the Germans greatly reduced the food available to Dutch civilians. In the Netherlands, that period of privation is remembered, and they don’t want to see it happen repeatedly to the Ukrainians.
For centuries, Ukraine has suffered periods of brutal occupation by invaders. The most frequent brutal occupier has been Russia, which has also played the homicidal villain several times in the last century. The most infamous Russian occupation incident was the use of famine during 1932 and 1933 to suppress Ukrainian opposition to Russian rule, especially the new Russian ideology of communism, which prohibited private farms and expected all farmers to work for state-owned farms. Many farmers throughout Russia resisted this, but opposition was strongest in Ukraine, where about 20 percent of the Soviet Union’s population lived. Ukrainian farmers were the most productive in Russia and produced most of the wheat for export. Ukrainian resistance produced a horrific Soviet response: the seizure of nearly all the wheat crops in the areas of most resistance. This lasted two years and killed nearly four million Ukrainians, about an eighth of the population. Ukrainians called this the Holodomor, which translates as the Man-Made Famine.
Russia denied the Holodomor ever happened, and many Western nations and their mass media went along with that. One exception was Britain, where one British reporter risked his life by going to Ukraine and obtaining proof of the Holodomor. The Russian government kept denying the famine ever happened until 1983, when a more open communist government admitted that many communist crimes were true. This made an impression on Russians because they realized most of the victims of the Gulag prison camps and communist terror in general were Russians. As a result, during the occupations of Crimea and parts of Donbas in 2014, the Russians tried to win the support of locals.
That lowered the civilian death toll but did not turn most of the occupied population into loyal citizens of Russia. By 2020, most Ukrainians in the occupied territories wanted out. The most desperate moved to Russia, many others wanted to get to Ukraine, and others sought to go anywhere but Ukraine and Russia.
The Holodomor and many other past incidents of Russian brutality led to Russian troops being initially ordered to not attack civilians during the 2022 invasion. That failed to make civilians any more receptive to the Russian presence and, within a month, troops were told they could loot and not tolerate any resistance from civilians. Russia denied that civilians were being killed or that widespread looting was taking place. Cell phone cameras carried by most Ukrainians made those claims difficult to sustain. Nor were Russian denials of the heavy casualties inflicted on the Russian forces, who believed they would easily defeat the Ukrainians and occupy the capital, Kyiv, within two weeks. After a month of this, Russian troops around Kyiv were ordered to withdraw to Russia and try to conceal evidence of mass murder before they left. This produced some mass graves, but many bodies were left in plain view, and many surviving civilians had video evidence of who did what. Russia again denied it, insisting these civilians were killed by Ukrainian forces to make the Russians look bad. Once more, the video evidence, especially from Ukrainians who witnessed it and could identify some of the perpetrators, made the atrocities difficult to deny.
Mindful of that, Russian occupation forces in parts of Ukraine that were seized early on and are still under Russian control were ordered to try hard to win over the locals without resorting to mass murder. The main occupation zone lies north of Crimea and centers on Kherson city, the capital of Kherson province. Russian forces captured Kherson City during the first week of the invasion and have held most of the province ever since. The city is a major port because it is located near the mouth of the Dnieper River and the Black Sea. The Dnieper is a major navigable river for Ukraine and has long been used to move cargo, especially exported wheat.
Ukraine has been trying to recapture Kherson City and province ever since and finally did so at the end of 2023, aided by a growing partisan movement inside Kherson province and passive resistance to Russian occupation by most Ukrainians in the province. Some Ukrainians agreed to work for the Russian occupation, and they were soon the targets of attacks by Ukrainian partisans. Some of the turncoats were killed, but more worrisome to the Russians were indications that other Ukrainian officials quietly agreed to work for the partisans. The Russians eventually concluded that many of their Ukrainian administrators were working with the resistance from the beginning.
At the same time, the Russian occupation forces still had orders to try and win over the Ukrainians or at least discourage them from joining an armed insurrection. To help with that, the Russians sought to Russify the province as quickly as possible. That meant replacing Ukrainian cell phone service with Russian service. They blocked Ukrainian TV and radio transmissions. Russian ID documents became mandatory, and the ruble became the required currency. Access to Russian-controlled utilities, especially water and electricity, depended on how cooperative local civilians were. These efforts aimed to link Kherson to the Russian economy. The initial reason for pacifying the population was to make life safe for Russian troops in Kherson. That was never fully achieved, and since then Russian troops must worry about roadside bombs or anti-vehicle mines, as well as sniper fire and assassination via pistol or a bomb planted in a vehicle.
The goal was to hold elections that could be portrayed as honest and show most Kherson residents supporting annexation by Russia. The Ukrainians did not cooperate and used clever tactics that Russian Information War specialists recognized and struggled to counter. The Ukrainian resistance was armed and dangerous, but also mindful of the need to outdo Russia's information war campaign. Some of the American aid packages for Ukraine included a lot of Cold War-era PARM anti-vehicle mines that were never used. The Germans developed these mines to halt or disrupt a Soviet invasion that never came. The Germans believed Ukrainian partisans could use these mines. This proved true, and the Ukrainians wanted more after receiving nearly 15,000. Germany must resume production to meet Ukrainian demand.
Ukrainians depict the Russian occupiers as worse than the German Nazis of World War II infamy. This is particularly embarrassing for the Russians because the official Russian government justification for the invasion is to liberate Ukrainians from neo-Nazi Ukrainians led by President Zelensky, who is Jewish. This tragicomedy was understood by many in Russia early on and led to a largely unarmed, but often violent, resistance movement inside Russia and Belarus.
Russia denies the extent of the resistance in Kherson, calling armed partisans local bandits and gangsters. Video evidence escapes Kherson, and Russian troops stationed there complain to friends and family back home. This intensifies resistance to the war inside Russia, where the government wages its own information war to generate support, or at least discredit critics. The growing inability to suppress accurate news helped cause the Soviet Union to dissolve in 1991. Former KGB officers who brought back many aspects of Soviet rule over the last two decades are struggling to manage media and image control. It’s the 1980s all over again, but worse. This reminds us that information war isn't a state monopoly and is often a multi-sided conflict.
FYEO
| By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, November 02, 2026 - 04:02 pm: Edit |
Air Weapons: Long-Range Combat Drones Come Out of Ukraine
October 30, 2026: One thing Russia did not expect after invading Ukraine was that the Ukrainians would develop long-range drones that could attack military and economic targets deep inside Russia. Ukraine has developed many long-range drones and is developing new ones, including cheap ballistic missiles. Its current long-range drone force includes nearly 6,000 FP-1s, with a 1,600-kilometer range and a 60- or 120-kg warhead. The heavier warhead reduces the range. This drone is immune to electronic jamming because it uses an INS (Inertial Guidance System) and more precise satellite guidance. FP-2 is an FP-1 variant that can carry larger, over-100-kg warheads to targets 200 kilometers away, using a guidance system that homes in on air-defense systems and destroys or disables them. The UJ-26 is a stealthy, jet-propelled attack drone with a 20 kg payload and a range of over 1,000 kilometers. This is the drone that makes many of the attacks on Moscow and air defense and other military targets in Crimea. The An-196 is a propeller-driven cruise missile with a range of nearly 1,500 kilometers and a 75 kg payload. This is what Ukraine uses for most of the attacks on industrial targets, oil refineries and storage sites, as well as military targets like airbases. UJ-22 is another propeller-driven attack drone with an 800-kilometer range and a 20 kg warhead payload, used for attacks inside Russia. Sichenis is a flying-wing drone with a 1,400-kilometer range, a small warhead, and unjammable Starlink satellite guidance.
Ukraine’s drone missions operate using SEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses) drones to home in on and destroy air defense radars. This allows subsequent drones or missiles to reach their targets unhindered. Currently, attacks involve up to 3,000 drones for SEAD and attack missions. Ukraine has rapidly scaled long-range drone production, with FP-1/FP-2 units produced at rates of 200 per day, and plans to increase these attacks with more drones, including upgraded models in development.
There are a lot of other things drones can do, like the recent incident when a Ukrainian naval drone ran up on a beach on the Black Sea coast and landed a mobile ground combat drone armed with a machine gun. Ukraine has been using thousands of aerial drones to attack Russian targets in the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia has occupied since 2014. By 2024, Ukrainian drones had forced the remains of the Russian Black Sea Fleet to take refuge in distant Black Sea ports. Recently, Ukrainian drones attacked and sank or damaged over three dozen Russian commercial ships operating in the Black Sea. This is part of an effort to halt Russian commercial and military naval operations in the Black Sea. That the Ukrainians can do this, without having much of a navy, just a few patrol boats, is humiliating.
Drones cannot replace warships operating on the high seas, but the Black Sea is not the high seas. It is unclear if naval and ground combat drones could play a significant role in a large amphibious invasion. No one has tried it yet, but the Ukrainians may be the first to do so if they use amphibious attacks to retake Crimea. The Ukrainian military cannot afford heavy casualties. Over the last year, the Ukrainian military has used lots of drones, including ground combat models, either armed or for transport. Currently, only one Ukrainian soldier is a casualty for every eight Russians.
To do this, Ukraine uses 30 percent more and better drones than Russia. In the first half of 2025, Russia sharply increased its use of attack drones, primarily FPV (First Person View) drones. The Ukrainian drone advantage slowed, stopped, and sometimes reversed the momentum of the Russians' offensive operations
A similar situation applies to the daily percentage of drones operating with FOG (Fiber Optic Guidance). These drones are controlled via a fiber-optic cable that can be many kilometers long. FOG drones cannot be jammed. For Ukraine, 32 percent of drones use FOG guidance, while the Russians use only 24 percent. Ukraine has been faster with new innovations in drone design. The Russians imitate this progress but are always a few months or more behind.
In some parts of the 900-kilometer front line, the Russians can concentrate more drones for offensive operations than the Ukrainians. Fewer Russian offensives are underway because of high casualties, troop shortages, and declining morale. The Ukrainians have taken advantage of this and are reclaiming more territory. At this rate, the Russians might be pushed out of Ukraine by 2027. One factor making this possible is the increasing number of long-range attacks against Russian refineries, pipelines, weapons, and electronics manufacturing. Last month, in a particularly bold move, Ukraine sent nearly a hundred drones against the Plesetsk Cosmodrome, which is 1,500 kilometers from Ukraine. While the Russians admitted they had to delay some operations at Plesetsk, it remains unclear how much, if any, damage the drones caused to the Plesetsk facility.
These Ukrainian attacks deep inside Russia are disrupting Russian efforts to use their air defense systems effectively, or at all. Russia must move the S-300 and S-400 air defense batteries by rail or barge to new locations. The Ukrainian drones are now equipped with guidance systems that can attack one of several targets, depending on which target has the fewest air defense systems protecting it. The air defense crisis also means front-line troops often have little or no air defense.
For Russia, the most damaging Ukrainian innovation in drone warfare is their use of AI/Artificial Intelligence for drone targeting systems. The AI drone contains a targeting system that finds targets. The AI drone operator confirms which targets are real and, once a target is confirmed, the AI targeting system needs no further communication. It resists all forms of jamming.
FPV drones have radically changed modern warfare. These drones are an omnipresent aerial threat to armored vehicles and infantry. Each FPV drone costs less than $1,000. Operators use the drone's camera to see what is below and find targets. Armed FPV operators are several kilometers away to decide when their FPV drones will drop explosives on an armored vehicle, which has thinner armor on top, or on infantry in the open or in trenches. To do so, drone operators often work in pairs, with one flying behind the other and focusing on the big picture while seeking a likely target. When the reconnaissance drone finds a target, the armed drone is directed to it. The two FPV drone operators are usually in the same room or tent and can take control of new drones, which are lined up and brought outside for launch when needed. Reconnaissance drones are often unarmed so they can spend more time in the air searching for a target.
The Ukrainians developed the FPV drone in 2022, when only a few FPV drone attacks were recorded. The Ukrainian Army was the first to appreciate the potential of FPV drones. By the summer of 2023, the Russian Army also began to use FPV drones in greater numbers. Since then, the number of FPV drone attacks has grown exponentially on both sides. Only 12% of those attacks destroy a target, whether a vehicle, a group of infantry, or even a sniper firing through a window from inside a building. In this case, the armed FPV drone would fly through the window and explode in the room the sniper was in. The only defense is having a nearby open door the sniper can run to or dive through as the FPV drone approaches. Sometimes that isn’t possible because the armed FPV drone comes down from above the window and then in. You don’t see those coming until it’s too late.
In 2026, Ukraine plans to build at least eight million drones. They built about five million drones last year. In 2024, they built 1.5 million drones. There have been problems. Chinese component producers are having a hard time keeping up, and last year, to assist the Russians, China halted sending drone components to Ukraine. Suppliers in Europe, the United States, and elsewhere quickly stepped in. Nearly 90 percent of Ukrainian drones are built entirely in Ukraine, while the rest use imported parts or complete assemblies. Some Ukrainian firms have improvised by using plywood and similar materials for their drones. For FPV (first-Person View) drones, cheaper is better if the drone can hit its first and only target. Most Ukrainian drones are FPV models, which are considered ammunition.
Both sides now use FPV drones, but they use them differently in combat. The Ukrainians seek out high-value targets like armored vehicles, electronic warfare equipment, anti-aircraft systems, and storage sites for munitions or other supplies. Russian supply trucks are another prime target.
FYEO
| By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, November 02, 2026 - 04:02 pm: Edit |
Yemen: The Endless Drug Trade
October 30, 2026: In Yemen, the drug trade keeps the Houthi rebels going. The drug trade provides the Houthis with billions of dollars to pay for operations that shatter the economy and lives of many Yemenis. They work with international criminal gangs, like the Russian Bratva, to distribute these drugs worldwide, including New York City and other major metropolitan cities. The Yemeni drug traffickers move more than 14 tons of drugs a year, including cocaine, heroin, Captagon pills, hashish, and methamphetamine. Houthi-controlled areas are public drug markets, with all the lethal substances for sale.
Moving the drugs around from the producer is a complex business. Regional distribution relies on dhows, fishing boats, and small vessels that move deadly cargo across the Red Sea and Arabian Sea, often concealing it among legitimate merchandise. Some drugs move overland to other nations in the Arabian Peninsula, including Saudi Arabia (narco-narcotics). The legitimate government in eastern Yemen allows shipments to go by sea to other Arab and African destinations. Some Yemen drugs have been intercepted off South America.
The drug money enables the Houthis to purchase weapons and attract young Yemenis to fight alongside the Houthis and help distribute the drugs. These young fighters, many teenagers, are given Captagon pills that energize them to fight more fiercely. Many of these young fighters become addicted to the pills, giving the Houthis a force of fierce fighting slaves. The drugs are also distributed to young men in areas the Houthis occupied. This destabilizes any organized resistance and provides new recruits.
For over a decade, Yemen has been a troublesome region. The civil war, lack of food and medical care for the civilian population, and seizure of foreign aid personnel by the Iran-backed Houthi terrorist organization in Yemen continued. This hindered the government, NGO, and international organizations’ efforts to address these problems. At the start of this year, the Houthi militia in Yemen halted their attacks on American commercial ships headed for the Suez Canal. Those attacks resumed after the June 13–14 Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.
Yemen sits at the southern tip of the Arabian Peninsula, with the Persian Gulf to the northeast, the Red Sea to the west, and the Indian Ocean to the southeast. Ships that don’t go through the Suez Canal must take a much longer route around Africa's southern coast. Many more merchant vessels are making that journey because war-risk insurance through the Red Sea is very expensive, and the area is now an official war zone. On the plus side, the need for so many more ships to make this long journey, instead of taking the shorter route through the Suez Canal, required a 10% increase in the container ship fleet. Fortunately, an eleven percent surplus of these long ships existed, and now nearly all of them are at work.
The Houthis say they are at war with Israel and still fire at ships at random, though they contend they only fire on ships serving Israel. So far, they have attacked over 200 ships, and about 20 percent were damaged. The U.S. Navy sent a carrier task force to launch airstrikes on Houthi targets with predictable minor effects. That led to more frequent and aggressive attacks, which briefly reduced Houthi activity. These attacks used over 200 missiles and as many shells from 127 mm or five-inch guns on destroyers. Several of those 127 mm shells shot down Houthi drones.
In 2024, one of the Houthi drones hit a building in the Israeli city of Tel Aviv, killing one civilian and wounding several others. The next day, Israel sent F-15 and F-35 fighter-bombers to destroy several economic targets in the Yemeni Red Sea port of Hudaydah. This is where weapons arrive from Iran for the Houthis to use against Red Sea shipping. The airstrikes destroyed fuel storage sites as well as port facilities, including the difficult-to-replace ship-unloading cranes. If the Israelis leave the port alone, repairs could take up to a year. The Israelis and other nations are not leaving the port of Hudaydah alone if the Houthis are using it.
Yemen’s Shia rebels, led by the Houthi tribe, have used their large stockpile of Iranian missiles to try to block access to the Suez Canal. This capability developed over the last decade as the rebels launched attacks on more distant targets. The rebels obtained more powerful weapons as well, including Iranian ballistic missiles, which were disassembled so they could be smuggled from Iran to Yemen, where Iranian technicians supervised the missiles being assembled and launched into Saudi Arabia. In the last few years, the rebels have received longer-range ballistic missiles to fire from northern Yemen across Saudi territory to hit Saudi and UAE oil production facilities on the Persian Gulf coast. The rebels also acquired the reconnaissance capability to accurately fire missiles at ships passing through the narrow, 26-kilometer-wide Bab el-Mandeb strait off southwestern Yemen and force ships to take the longer and more expensive and time-consuming fourteen-day, 6,000-kilometer route around the southern tip of Africa.
These attacks have long threatened ships using the Red Sea to reach the Suez Canal in Egypt, at the Red Sea's northern end. Transit fees from ships using the canal are a major source of income for Egypt, bringing in about $10 billion a year. Egypt and Iran are enemies, and reducing Suez Canal income is a win for Iran, which supported the Yemen rebels for more than a decade to make such an interdiction possible.
Western nations reacted slowly to this interdiction effort but, by the end of 2024, were launching regular airstrikes on Houthi targets, coordinating their efforts with the Israelis and U.S. carrier task forces operating in the region. In October 2024, American B-2 bombers dropped penetrating bombs on Houthi underground facilities, destroying missile stockpiles and headquarters for the rebels. This reduced the number of missiles available. This was seen in a lower frequency of attacks. A naval blockade of Yemen was tightened, with more frequent inspections of fishing boats and coastal freighters. Western warships close to the Yemeni shore continue using their defensive weapons to defeat attacks launched from the Yemeni coast. The United States currently has several destroyers based off Yemen's coast.
The Arabian Peninsula is home to several wealthy Arab kingdoms that prosper on vast petroleum reserves beneath the desert sands. The only area with no oil is Yemen's fertile south. Until the Persian Gulf oil industry emerged over a century ago, Yemen was the most prosperous part of Arabia because monsoon rains made it green as they traveled to East Africa. The current head of the Houthi movement is 47-year-old Abdul-Malik al-Houthi. Several of his predecessors were killed by American, Arabian, or European attacks. The loss of so many Houthi leaders has not disrupted the violent activities of the Houthis and, with the aid of Iranian-supplied missiles and drones against shipping in the Red Sea and an occasional missile attack on Israel, shows no sign of slowing. The Israeli missile defense system blocks the Houthi attacks, but the Houthis are satisfied that they can make such attacks. These attacks justify the hundreds of millions of dollars in missiles and other military aid Iran has sent to the Houthis.
Western efforts to disrupt Houthi violence via killing of Houthi leaders have failed. The Houthi clan is large, and there are always replacements. At best, these disrupt Houthi operations. Opponents are dealing with a death cult that disregards the loss of Yemeni civilians and leaders so they can concentrate on attacking Israel and its allies. Few of these attacks do any damage and usually elicit retaliatory attacks that kill a lot of Houthis, Yemenis, and any Iranians in the way. Any Yemenis or Iranians who protest this treatment are attacked and often killed by Houthi or Iranian forces. The Israeli/Western response is to kill as many Houthi supporters and Iranian allies as possible. This approach largely destroyed the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia in 2024. Hezbollah still exists but was rendered ineffective for months and is still trying to rebuild. Disrupting Houthi finances and logistical operations is essential. Even terrorists must be paid, and there is so much opportunity for graft in Yemen that the Houthis can easily keep their fighters motivated.
This war in Yemen drags on into 2025. Before the Israeli attacks on Gaza and Iran-backed militias in Lebanon, Iran was under widespread internal pressure from Iranians protesting the expensive foreign wars in Syria and Yemen. Despite that, Iran smuggled in more weapons. These were not intended for the ongoing Yemen civil war but for use against targets designated by Iran. At the same time, Iran saw domestic uprisings. The Iranian religious dictatorship held onto power and supported more violence against real or perceived enemies of Iran.
In early 2015, Iran admitted it had been quietly supporting the Houthi Shia rebels for a long time but now was doing so openly, and that support was increasing. Many Yemenis trace the current crisis back to the civil war that ended, sort of, in 1994. That war happened because, when the British left Yemen in 1967, their former colony in Aden became one of two countries called Yemen. The two Yemens finally united in 1990, but another civil war in 1994 was needed to finalize unification. That fix didn't really take, and the north and south have been pulling apart ever since.
This comes back to the fact that Yemen has always been a region, not a country. Like most of the Persian Gulf and Horn of Africa, the normal form of government until the 20th century was wealthy coastal city-states nervously coexisting with interior tribes that got by on herding, farming, or a little of both, plus smuggling and other illicit sidelines. This concept of nationhood still draws some suspicion. This is why the most common forms of government are the familiar ones of antiquity, like kingdoms, emirates, or modern variations such as hereditary secular dictatorships.
For a long time, the most active Yemeni rebels were the Shia Houthis in the north. The Houthis have always wanted to restore local Shia rule in the traditional Shia tribal territories, led by the local imam, a religious leader who was a Houthi. The central government ended this arrangement in 1962, after it had lasted more than a thousand years. Yemen also became the new headquarters of Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula/AQAP when Saudi Arabia was no longer safe for the terrorists after 2007. Now there is the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant/ISIL and an invading army composed of troops from oil-rich neighbors like Saudi Arabia, which was very upset by Iranian/Houthi missile attacks. By late 2017, the rebels were slowly losing ground to government forces who, despite Arab coalition air support and about five thousand ground troops, were still dependent on Yemeni Sunni tribal militias to fight the Shia tribesmen on the ground. While the Shia are only a third of the population, they are united while the Sunni majority is not. By late 2025, the Houthi militia was still using missiles from Iran and improvised fire boats to attack shipping in the Red Sea. Some of the missiles are fired at Israel, where most are intercepted. A few get through and cause damage. When that happens, the Israelis retaliate with devastating airstrikes on Yemeni ports and infrastructure. Most of the Yemenis want the Houthis to go away. That will not happen if the Houthis' attacks on Israel continue. This is very popular in Arab countries.
FYEO
| By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, November 02, 2026 - 04:03 pm: Edit |
Leadership: Ukraine War Warps Front Line Concept
October 29, 2026: The Ukrainian way of war is a disciplined, unpretentious method of concealment, depth, dispersal, technological and tactical evasion, and maneuver, built on the demands of every soldier and drone. Can they reach, observe, communicate, and attack? This is protected by Ukrainian drones blocking, destroying, or using jamming to disable Russian drones and equipment. The Ukrainian front-line concept is based on adaptability, flexibility, and rapid maneuvering to achieve and maintain more favorable battlefield deployments of ground and drone forces. Put another way, Ukraine uses the front line as a weapon, continually rearranging it to improve combat capabilities.
These recently developed techniques are among the many innovations that have emerged from Ukraine's war with Russia, and they highlight many Ukrainians' initiative and entrepreneurial spirit. Once in the military, new soldiers reach out to friends and family back home for needed equipment, especially drones. The development of drones in Ukraine was enhanced by all the friends and family members of Ukrainian soldiers who didn’t just send their soldiers what they said they needed, but searched around on the internet, social networks, and among friends for ideas and help in developing those ideas into something useful in a combat zone.
The Ukrainian army is organized into brigades, and each brigade commander and his staff can deal directly with manufacturers to obtain new equipment or items developed by soldiers. Not just drones, but additions to combat uniforms, anti-drone nets, and anything brigade members found useful in their handmade prototypes. The brigade commander has a budget for this, which is often augmented by the friends and families of soldiers under his command. While army-wide standardization suffers, the combat gains and other brigades' ability to copy successful ideas make it all worthwhile. This is obvious when you read the internet and social networks chatter of soldiers who survived because of some civilian’s crazy idea that worked.
Ukrainian drone proliferation began when many individual Ukrainians, or small teams of civilians, designed and built drones. The drones became candidates for widespread use and mass production. This proliferation of designers and manufacturers rapidly evolved drone capabilities and uses. Those who could not keep up were less successful in combat and suffered higher losses. Each month, Ukrainian factories and home workshops build nearly 400,000 drones. Most of these workshops are informal, located in spare rooms, garages, barns, empty industrial space, or anywhere protected from the weather and aerial surveillance. Russia will hit any drone manufacturing sites they can identify.
One result of the Ukraine War was the emergence of inexpensive drones as a decisive weapon as well as a reconnaissance and surveillance system. In 2023, a year after Russia invaded Ukraine, the Ukrainians were building their own drones, often at home or in scattered workshops. By late 2024, Ukrainians were producing over 15o,000 drones a month. In 2025, Ukraine produced over 4 million drones. By buying components in bulk, thousands of Ukrainian men and women build these drones for the armed forces or for someone they know in the military. Troops at the front also build and modify drones to fit their immediate situations. For the soldiers, designing better drones is often a matter of life or death.
This competitiveness led to First Person View (FPV) drones, as well as drones guided via Fiber-Optic cable Guidance, or FOG. Electronic jamming was useless against the FOG drones. The only limitation was cable length. This meant the operator had to be at one end of the kilometers-long cable. Operators could be farther away if they had time to lay another kilometer or two of cable farther back. Ukrainian drone operators often worked in drone workshops before entering the military and were accustomed to upgrading drone-operator equipment in the combat zone. Workshop operators across Ukraine learned of successful innovations.
This is how the Ukrainians maintain a lead over the Russians in drone technology and production. The Russian government discourages, or even outlaws, individuals building drones and centralizes drone production. This gives the Ukrainians an edge in drone quantity and quality. The Ukrainians are defending their homeland, and Russia is having an increasingly difficult time justifying continued fighting and nearly two million Russians killed or disabled in Ukraine.
NATO countries are trying to adopt drone technology and use it for their own armed forces. Ukraine has received over $200 billion in military and economic assistance from NATO countries and shares their drone experience and technology with their benefactors. Drones have revolutionized warfare and are causing 70 percent of casualties in Ukraine. The war in Ukraine is a battle between industrialized countries using modern weapons. It is the war of the future, and all armed forces must adopt it to remain competitive.
Last year, Ukraine equipped its combat brigades with ground-based combat and transport robots in addition to drones. The ground robots come in different versions. Some plant and remove landmines. Other drones advance along the ground while firing remotely controlled machine guns. These systems can fire accurately at moving targets day and night. Drones also transport supplies to the front lines and carry casualties back to first aid stations and field hospitals. The growing number of Ukrainian drone systems was developed based on reports from the front-line troops. They quickly put those ideas to use because of wartime urgency.
FYEO
| By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, November 02, 2026 - 04:03 pm: Edit |
Peace Time: More Drones to Stop Drug Cartels
October 29, 2026: Drone wars have come to the U.S.-Mexico border. Drug cartels are using drones to monitor American border control operations. With their own drones, U.S. forces can track smuggling operations, determine which routes are most frequently used, and maintain a high rate of arrests and disrupted drug smuggling efforts.
During a recent 30-day period, American armed forces counted nearly 400 cartel drones operating along the border. The cartels seek to observe American security personnel, record patrol routines, and monitor smuggling activity along the Mexican border as authorities expand efforts to disable cartel drones.
The U.S. military detected 378 drone incursions along the border during the previous 30 days, Brig. Gen. Brian Filler of Joint Task Force-Southern Border recently told reporters. He said the trend was increasing, and the aircraft were typically commercial drones with cameras used for surveillance tied to smuggling and human trafficking.
In times past, the Mexican government has had 45,000 troops and 5,000 police battling several thousand cartel gunmen in 18 states. But most of the action is in a few states along the U.S. border. Two years of violence have left over 8,000 dead. The drug cartels are not strong enough to defeat the government, but they are determined to keep fighting to preserve their lucrative drug business. It's all about ambition, greed, and no inhibitions about killing. You can't make this stuff up. The government is apparently going to keep at it until the cartels are destroyed or adopt a much more low-profile way of operating. Mexican and U.S. security officials have openly discussed increased U.S. support for Mexico in its war against drug gangs. This was called "the Cartel War". The U.S. was concerned about violence spilling over. Politicians in El Paso, Texas, were worried, and they are concerned for their Mexican neighbors in Ciudad Juárez (Chihuahua state). Both Mexico and the U.S. are pushing intelligence sharing (intel on smuggling, drug gangs, weapons, finances, etc.). Some sectors in Mexico criticize this, arguing that intel sharing will likely lead to American contractors (meaning military or intelligence service companies). This is used in a very negative sense, suggesting American mercenaries.
Apparently, the Mexican government thinks hiring expertise to support Mexican operations is a good option. Are joint operations by the U.S. and Mexico possible? Sure, but as both the U.S. and Mexican governments have stressed, such operations must be carefully planned and approved by both governments. Mexican-U.S. joint military operations seemed very unlikely, but it is a good bet that planning officers in Mexico and the U.S. are looking at what we can do for each other if cartels launch attacks in the U.S. or try to create a situation where Mexican military units cross the border in the midst of a combat operation. Some joint operations, well short of combat and focused on increased security presence, make a lot of sense.
Joint communications operations are one example, and joint liaison teams manned by experienced military personnel from both countries are another. You can bet any joint team will operate on both sides of the border. Political cover is one reason Mexicans are sensitive to affronts to sovereignty. However, joint operations on both sides are also common sense since violence and drug smuggling have transnational effects. Ad hoc arrangements and relationships already exist, but both governments appear interested in more formal, permanent cooperation.
Examples of past violence include at least 21 people who died in a firefight in Chihuahua state (130 kilometers south of Ciudad Juarez) between Mexican soldiers and cartel gunmen. The confrontation began as a standoff between soldiers and gang members who had kidnapped nine people. The gangsters executed six of the kidnap victims during the battle. Soldiers lost one of their own and killed 14 gang members. Troops took control of police headquarters in Cancun and arrested the local police commander and 36 policemen. The military announced that it believes the policemen are connected to the murder of retired Mexican Army Brigadier General Mauro Enrique Tello in Cancun. Mexican soldiers and federal police participating in Joint Operation Chihuahua raided a drug warehouse in Ciudad Juarez. The police seized around two tons of marijuana.
FYEO
| By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, November 02, 2026 - 04:32 pm: Edit |
Air Defense: Japanese Drone Defense
November 2, 2026: Japan has recently increased its annual defense spending by 26 percent. Japan now spends $56 billion a year, the largest defense budget ever. This is also the sixth year Japan has increased defense spending, and it aims to reach 2 percent of GDP. The 2026 budget is $58 billion, the fourteenth consecutive year of increases. Key items in the new budget were improved surface-to-ship missiles and a scramjet-powered hypersonic missile. Nearly two billion dollars is for drones that operate in the air, on the ocean, and submerged. The Japan Air Self Defense Force is now the Japan Air and Space Self Defense Force a year early. Japan plans to increase naval and air activity in the Western Pacific, especially near China and North Korea.
Japan is investing over $600 million in a drone-based defense system called SHIELD. It will include up to 100,000 aerial, land-based, and naval surface and submarine drones. Japan and Ukraine have exchanged officers and manufacturing experts to increase Japanese drone production, especially of a new interceptor drone costing less than $3,000 each to destroy Russian propeller-driven and jet-propelled drones. Geran is the Russian version of the Iranian Saheed drone. Russia has built several facilities to manufacture Gerans, and Ukraine needs cost-effective ways to intercept them. Japan also must worry about China’s growing combat drone industry. These have been seen operating off the Chinese coast where any ship or aircraft in the vicinity can see them. Currently, Japan builds only about 1,000 drones a year and plans to increase that over a hundredfold in the next few years.
Other East Asian countries are also increasing defense spending and buying or producing more drones. South Korea spent $45 billion on defense, which is 2.8 percent of GDP. China, the major threat to everyone in East Asia and the Western Pacific, officially spends somewhere between two and three percent but almost certainly up to fifty percent more. North Korea spends about a quarter of GDP on the military, but its GDP is only about five percent of South Korea’s.
Japan’s and South Korea’s combined defense budget exceeds $100 billion, and both rank among the world's top ten defense spenders. These are the United States, China, Russia, India, Germany, Britain, France, Japan, Saudi Arabia, and South Korea. Militarily, South Korea is a superpower compared to North Korea. This is obvious when you consider annual defense spending. While the United States accounts for about 40 percent of worldwide defense spending, China and Russia together only account for about 17 percent. The rest of the top ten are either American allies or friendly. Ukraine ranks in the top five in total defense spending, including donations from NATO countries, when it comes to defense acquisitions. This is a dubious distinction for Ukraine, which is using it all to repel a Russian invasion. South Korea has profited from this because NATO member Poland, which borders Ukraine and Russia, has increased defense spending and purchased nearly $15 billion worth of South Korean weapons and munitions.
South Korea produces far more weapons and military equipment than the North, and its weapons and munitions are top-grade. One side effect is that once Poland receives all the South Korean tanks, mobile artillery, and guided and rocket launchers, it will have the most powerful army in NATO Europe. This is to discourage any Russian attacks on Poland or any other NATO nation in the area.
In the 1930s, Japan attacked a disorganized and divided China but could only capture and hold portions of it. At the end of World War II, most of the Japanese army remained in China, kept busy occupying and policing the areas they had taken control of. Most of these troops were captured by Russian forces at the end of the war, and most of the rest voluntarily moved to ports to be repatriated to Japan, although American troops occupied southern Korea and added those Japanese garrison troops to their relatively small number of Japanese prisoners of war. Most Japanese troops the Americans encountered in the Pacific died making suicidal counterattacks against the heavily armed and resolute American forces. Few Japanese soldiers surrendered because they saw it as disgraceful.
Both China and Japan reformed their armed forces after World War II. Japan adopted a new constitution that prohibited armed forces capable of offensive operations. China demobilized most of its huge army and sought to modernize the remaining soldiers. This modernization is still underway because the effort took many wrong turns. Some problems stemmed from corruption, which increased as the Chinese economy grew rapidly in the 1980s and produced enough government income to spend more on, or steal from, the military. Every Chinese leader since has tried, to some extent, to deal with them, and current leader Xi Jinping is trying more than most. So far, he has encountered more problems than he can effectively handle. Xi is not giving up and is moving forward to do what has rarely been done in peacetime China.
FYEO
| By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, November 02, 2026 - 04:32 pm: Edit |
Russia: Internet Recruiting
November 2, 2026: Russia’s military recruiting efforts use Western networks to reach recruits internationally and exploit Western tech platforms. Having run out of Russian men willing to fight in Ukraine, the Russians have turned to the rest of the world. In most of these countries, the offer of $20,000 to become a mercenary for Russia is very attractive. Russia is doing this online. In the last two decades, internet access has become available globally. First came the proliferation of cellphones. People in poor countries with limited bank access could now deposit money in stores equipped to transfer it to an online account. Using a thumbprint as their ID, users could make purchases, earn money, and save money through their phone-based accounts. The phone could also handle internet access, and Russia used that to offer men in Africa and anywhere poverty might encourage someone to join the Russian army. So far, at least 4,000 men from Africa have been recruited, and nearly a thousand were killed. African governments have protested to Russia and seek to break these contracts. That proved difficult because they often passed the money on to other family members.
These recruiting efforts did little to solve Russia's recruitment problem. As a result of personnel, fiscal, and emotional losses during the war in Ukraine, the Russian government has been struggling to deal with angry civilians. The government is blacklisting writers, movie producers, and entertainers who fled the country because of the failed invasion of Ukraine. Putin is particularly angry because of a new film, Minotaur. This film depicts the deceptive methods local officials used to get young men into the army and then into Ukraine, where half of them have been killed, wounded, deserted, or simply gone missing. The film won awards in the West, including the Grand Prix and the Cannes Soundtrack Award, and was popular among Russians who could see it. The same thing happened with the 2025 film, “Mr. Nobody Against Putin”. The film showed how a rural school became an army recruitment center, training children and having some build drones. The film sent a message to Russian parents that Vladimir Putin did not appreciate.
Putin has supported filmmakers who create works that justify the war. There have been few takers. He can order such videos, but he can’t always get the results he wants. Rather than risk more anti-war protests by jailing filmmakers, he uses his uneasy control over social media and the internet to generate support using bots and foreign operatives to create favorable messages. This is quickly seen as astroturfing and ignored. Putin has also shut down internet access in parts of the country where opposition is most active. These shutdowns cannot last too long because the Russian economy cannot operate without internet access.
Before 2022, Russia had a small but vibrant independent media. Once Ukraine was invaded, that media fled rather than face shutdowns or assassination. Many of these Russian journalists established an online presence from exile. From there, they provided honest news in Russian and Ukrainian. The Ukrainian media did the same thing, and Russian families often found out what had happened to their missing sons by consulting Ukrainian internet sites that maintained photos of dead Russian troops and whatever information they had about them. Many videos were also posted. The age of cellphones makes it impossible to hide what is going on anywhere.
With the war now in its fifth year, most Russians are trying to ignore it. The war has crippled the Russian economy, and there is growing unemployment. The forcible kidnapping of young men for the army still produces the occasional fistfight between the kidnappers and angry Russian civilians. But the kidnappers are armed, and a few shots into the air halt the fight and scatter the protesters.
The growing war fatigue has left exiled Russian journalists with an audience that wants news about anything but the war. When a Ukrainian drone hits their town or neighborhood, locals turn to social media for news and explanations. Most Russians oppose the seemingly endless Ukraine war. Then the government decided to ban the only political party that urged Russians to vote against the war and those who supported it. This sparked a sharp increase in interest in the peace party on social media.
Russia’s Supreme Court decision to remove the only registered party openly campaigning for peace, Yabloko, from the ballot for September’s State Duma election has revived the question of how many Russians oppose the Kremlin’s war and how much space remains to express that opposition. Some young Russians posted videos, including a famous actor, Alexei Yarmushchik, who posted a video online talking to Vladimir Putin and saying that he did not want Putin as President and did not believe that Crimea belonged to Russia. Yarmushchik feared retaliation, but none came; instead, he was told to keep quiet for a while before continuing his criticism.
FYEO
| By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Thursday, November 05, 2026 - 02:36 pm: Edit |
Iran: Democracy and the 2nd Amendment in Iran Part 1
November 5, 2026: This is the first in a series of articles on how Iran can become an independent Persia without recognized Islam and with citizens' right to bear arms. Today, Mojtaba Khamenei. The new Iranian leader is still governing without being seen or heard from in public. The Iranian version of aut0-pen, used by a few military and political officials, is sort of trying to run things. The Iranian policy is still no surrender and lots of threats, followed by missiles and drones fired at neighbors and American warships in the Persian Gulf. This is not a stable way to run a theocracy like Iran. Mojtaba Khamenei apparently can't lead, and a cabal of officials is trying to guide the nation somewhere, but no one in Iran seems to know where. The Iranian people are hungry, frightened, and desperate. The economy has fallen apart, and civilians are getting by on less food as prices keep increasing and incomes slowly decline.
A solution exists, but it requires cooperation from the American and Israeli governments. Israel has a network of operatives inside Iran that has been there for decades. If Israel and the United States cooperate, Iran can be released from theocratic rule and transformed into a democracy. It won’t be easy, but no alternative is acceptable. The American president must, as his predecessor Franklin Roosevelt did during World War II, demand and obtain unconditional surrender from Germany and Japan. Iran is not a threat on that scale, but it has been a problem for the United States and its European and Middle Eastern allies since 1979, the year of the Islamic Revolution in Iran. This was the example needed to encourage Islamic terrorism worldwide.
To turn theocratic Iran into democratic Persia, we must insist on obtaining, by any means necessary, unconditional surrender from the current Iranian government. The American military and civilian officials know what that entails and must do whatever it takes to make it happen.
Then, when Iran is occupied, institute a militia system, like that used in Switzerland. At the same time, insist on Iran adopting the American Bill of Rights. That includes freedom of speech, religion, and the right to bear arms. Issue a weapon to every male or female head of household. Most of these will be assault rifles, but pistols can be given out as well. Provide weapons training for those who need or request it.
What happens to the IRGC? Dissolve and suppress it using whatever means are available. What about religious leaders? Arrest them and hold them for trial. They will be charged for all the crimes they committed or caused to be committed. That’s a long list. If Iranians wish to revive the death penalty, it will save a lot of time and money and give many Iranians the justice they never thought they would see. The Muslim Imams, or religious leaders, would also be arrested and examined to see who committed crimes against Iranians or foreigners.
Once implemented, these measures would end the economic sanctions against Iran and allow foreign trade. This would bring many exiled Iranians home, including the descendants of Iranian Jews. As it was before 1979, Iran and Israel would once more have diplomatic, cultural, and economic relations. Free, unrestricted Internet access would reconnect Iranians with the world.
While this may sound impossible and outrageous to some, it isn’t. If good men and women do the right thing to the best of their ability, all this will happen. Many will oppose these measures. They must be ignored and not allowed to interfere with the work of making Iran a free and equitable nation to do business with.
FYEO
| By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Thursday, November 05, 2026 - 02:37 pm: Edit |
Counter-Terrorism: Drones and Turbojet Engines
November 5, 2026: When a drone enters a turbojet or turbofan engine, its components strike and destroy the first-stage fan blades, compressor blades, and nearby parts. A minuscule two- or three-kg drone can cause catastrophic, explosive engine failure in a fraction of a second. Ukraine is not known to have used this strategy against Russian helicopters or jet warplanes. That will change now that news of this destructive technique is widely known. It will make commercial and military aircraft subject to terror attacks using drones to destroy aircraft engines and the aircraft as well. We will soon know what impact this will have on civil and military aviation.
Meanwhile, many major efforts are underway to develop new aircraft. A few years ago, Japanese engine maker IHI partnered with Britain’s Rolls-Royce to develop a new engine for Japan’s FX stealth aircraft. The partnership will spend over half a billion dollars to produce a demonstrator (working prototype) within a decade. Rolls-Royce has been developing aircraft engines for over a century. Rolls was one of the first firms to develop a jet engine for fighters during World War II. Right after the war, Rolls sold 25 of its Nene jet engines on the condition that they would not be used for military aircraft. Technically, the Russians complied, but when investigators examined shot-down MiG-15s, the “Russian” jet engine was clearly a copy of the Nene.
While Rolls-Royce still develops some military engines, most of its business is supplying engines as a primary or secondary supplier to Boeing, Airbus, and other commercial aircraft makers. While the American firm General Electric is the largest supplier of airliner engines, Rolls is firmly in second place.
Rolls has also partnered with Japanese engine manufacturer IHI, which also builds engines for large airliners. IHI also built the engines for Japanese F-15s and F-16s. Rolls has operations in Japan and seemed a good fit to develop a more powerful engine for Japan's stealth aircraft, as well as a similar project Britain and other European firms are developing.
In 2016, Japan successfully flight-tested its prototype X2 stealth aircraft, a demonstrator showing it could develop and build a production-model stealth fighter. The X2 project took over a decade, but Japan held off on proceeding with the FX until it received its first American F-35 stealth fighters and could examine what made them successful. Even before Japan received its first of (0f 147) F-35s in 2018, it seemed likely that Japan could create its own. Japan’s first F-35 squadron became operational in early 2019, confirming that Japan could produce what made the F-35 special.
Japan confirmed it could match the F-35's stealth and develop software like the F-35's. Japan has long developed complex software systems and has produced some of the most reliable initial releases. Unique software was a key element of the F-35’s popularity with American and export-nation pilots. By the end of 2020, Japan decided that it could build its own stealth fighter for itself and export customers. In 2014, Japan finally changed its constitution to allow weapons exports. Two restrictions applied: Japan could not export to countries at war or under sanctions.
Exporting its new FX stealth fighter made the project affordable. The FX project will cost $12 billion, and the Japanese parliament provided $703 million in the 2021 defense budget to start work. Japan has been developing technologies for a new fighter for over a decade; as a result, the first FX prototype is expected to make its first flight in 2028 and enter service in the mid-2030s, once the new Japan-British engine is ready for regular use. The FX prototype will test the engine's working prototype, and both nations will share the rights. Japan is also willing to help Britain with its new Tempest sixth-generation aircraft, which will incorporate stealth and even more advanced software.
Japan’s progress with its FX encouraged Britain, and both Tempest and FX are set to enter service in the mid-2030s. The British multinational firm BAE and Rolls-Royce, along with European firms Leonardo and MBDA, are jointly developing Tempest. Tempest will replace Typhoon, which entered service in 2003 and was developed by Airbus, BAE, and Leonardo. Typhoon was developed from a British Aerospace prototype that flew in 1986. British Aerospace later became part of BAE. With Tempest, Britain intends to develop an aircraft that will be more than a demonstrator.
Britain also bought F-35s and realized it needed a European firm to produce a similar aircraft that could compete with the Americans, who had long led in developing the latest aircraft and then grabbed most of the export market. Fewer than 600 Typhoons were built, while contemporary American aircraft, like the F-35, are being produced in the thousands, mainly for export customers. By partnering with Japan, Britain gained an edge the Eurofighter lacked. Without American tech in the FX or Tempest, the builders can export to anyone without the restrictions Americans often impose on those using some of their tech.
FYEO
| By Carl-Magnus Carlsson (Hardcore) on Friday, November 06, 2026 - 02:52 am: Edit |
Iran: Democracy and the 2nd Amendment in Iran Part 1.
I have a faster and better, proven, solution. Invade and then sell off the entire population to slavery. Caesar did that way back during the gallic wars.
| By Paul Howard (Raven) on Friday, November 06, 2026 - 04:16 am: Edit |
Carl
Two issues (Ok three)
1) Who would buy them?
2) Who would buy them?
Points 1 and 2 may seem the same, but I think it's worh mentioning twice (Yes - stolen from Red Dwarf)
3) If you want a nation to fight to the death - that would pretty much ensure that does happen.
On top of that - I think it's fair to say, I can't see any leader staying in office very long if they did order such an attack?
(Ignoring the Ethical aspects of this subject).
| By Cookxcc on Friday, November 06, 2026 - 06:08 am: Edit |
| By Carl-Magnus Carlsson (Hardcore) on Friday, November 06, 2026 - 09:36 am: Edit |
Paul, the population will be moved to safe villages for their safety. Of course this will cost money so you are justified to have Amazon hire them to work in fulfillment centres.
| By Mike Grafton (Mike_Grafton) on Friday, November 06, 2026 - 11:44 am: Edit |
Still have the problem of 1) tribalism (all those Sheiks) and the fanatics willing to use violence to force their beliefs on others.
My solution is to smuggle in MILLIONS of single use pistols and let the locals deal with each other. P-45 liberator or equivalent. Probably in 9mm. I can't imagine that one couldn't be made very cheaply with plastic frame, metal barrel, mostly plastic fire control group and plastic suppressor (using wipes instead of baffles). So you are Frank Fanatic who whips women insufficiently modestly dresses? You get gut shot and Betty Burka flees...
If everyone is armed the ability of the minority to terrorize is greatly reduced.
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