I appreciate all the comments, especially those from Pat and Lee.
However, there has been a serious drift of topic
I apologize in advance for the length of this and I would have preferred to dedicate the time I am now spending to write this epistle to finishing the preparation of the mock test of my proposed squadron selection method, but as a result of the posted comments I think I need explain how and why I ended up with my proposed method that is the topic here.
This said, you do not need to bother to read the following lengthy discussion if you don't care to or are fine with waiting to see how the mock testing goes. As much as anything, I just wanted to get all of my thoughts memorialized so I can move on to getting the mock test underway.
The online FC tournaments are at a crossroads for me. They were originally started for the purpose of helping to get online live play of FC going because several of us were having trouble finding opponents and scheduling games. The tournaments provided the opponents and a means for folks to force games onto their busy calendars.
From my perspective, I was never looking for a recreation of the SFB tournament experience in FC. I was looking for roughly balanced scenarios against a variety of empires and the opportunity to try out different types of squadrons. I also wanted to try to do well against my peers, but was prepared to be crushed by an opponent or two.
Terry O'Carroll made the first noble effort by trying to directly transfer the FC Origins Tournament to FC Online. Unfortunately, a bunch of folks got into their heads that the Kzinti were either unbeatable or really fun to play. Unfortunately, this devolved into a Kzinti civil war by the third round and the tournament collapsed between of this development and the delayed completion of matches leading up to this. In addition, an uproar with regard to playbalance between empires also developed in part due to what happened with so many folks picking the Kzintis. As an aside, I would note that the Kzintis today are not as strong as they were back then thanks to the addition of Offensive Fire for ADDs.
From the ashes of the first tournament, I stepped forward with what I will call the
1st Revolution. Specifically, I introduced the concept of point multipliers on top of the FC Origins Tournament Rules. A default set of premiums and discounts at roughly 5% increments were established based on my initial perception of the relative strength and weaknesses of each empire. I then also instituted a rule where if more than 1/4 of the players that signed up picked the same empire, the point multiplier for that empire would increase up to the next increment for all players. This was safety valve with regard to both guessing wrong at the initial empire multipliers and the inevitability that some folks just want to play a particular empire. This was all for the greater good to avoid a repeat of a civil war collapse of the first tournament. I also laid out a path for decrementing the multipliers in future tournaments for empires that lost all their matches or were not selected (due to unpopularity or a perception they are very weak). The then in playtest starting with the 2nd turn of plasma loading completed rule was also used. Finally, I instituted what I planned as strictly enforced monthly deadlines for completion of matches in order to maintain interest.
In general, the 2nd FCOL Tournament was a great success. While we had the little controversy with my third round game with Paul, everything went off fairly smoothly and even the little controversy was that -- little, and solved by moving from a 6 Turn limit to a 10 Turn limit for the next tournament.
The 3rd FCOL Tournament and Winter 2012 FCOL Tournament used the same format with some point multiplier adjustments and the aforementioned 10 Turn limit. They were also generally successful with Pat and Paul adding some spice to the Winter 2012 Tournament by taking on the Gorns and Romulans, respectively. They voluntarily did this in order to voluntarily handicap themselves and to try to build data to support their thesis that Plasma is too weak in FC. Lee also added some spice to the Winter 2012 Tournament with his all drone Orion squadron. The only thing that did not work well in this period was that in my growing tolerance to allow folks more time to complete their matches, the schedule got off kilter in the Winter 2012 Tournament. We also had far too many folks simply not get their game in and take a double draw.
The Fall 2012 FCOL Tournament that just completed was variant of the ones that proceeded it. I went back to the intention of very strictly enforced monthly match completion deadlines with the threat of declaring double losses if both players were at fault rather than allowing double draws. I also decided to start at 26 hexes to save playtime and apply a minimum first turn baseline speed, forced facing and a shuttle destruction penalty. These were mostly intended to help speed play by shaving first turn playtime and further discouraging delaying tactics though, as I have indicated elsewhere, the shuttle penalty was a suspension of disbelief item for me as well.
To add variety (we have been waiting for the ISC, Vudar and Andromedans to added to the FCOL client for nearly two years) and to also help with playtime, I moved down from 3 to 4 ship , 450 point squadrons to 2 to 3 ship, 300 point squadrons. I also made some minor tweaks to the empire point multipliers. Finally, I eliminated the over subscription incrementing of the point multipliers because I felt the point multipliers had settled down enough and I thought the starting location and total squadron point value changes would not skew things much. We almost did run into over subscription at one point, but then a player voluntarily changed empires to avoid a problem. The other bit of variety added was that Lee chose a nearly all Plasma F Carronade Orion squadron.
The first few rounds of the Fall 2012 tournament went very smoothly. However, there were two things that came up. First, for whatever reason, two of Lee's opponents did not realize the Orion Plasma Fs have Carronade capability like the Gorns and Feds. One of his opponents was also not happy with having to deal with what he felt were somewhat wacky, broken squadrons and expressed a preference for fixed tournament squadrons like in SFB. The second issue was with regard to how long it took to complete the last round match for the two leaders in the tournament. This has led to the delay in starting the next tournament, but it has also led to me contemplating what to do next (a good thing).
Getting back to the crossroads, in my opinion the tournament is growing stale. Also, it has become abundantly clear that even minor changes to the tournament scenario can cause significant changes in the play balance between empires. In my opinion, this and some of the extremes that can occur with the Orions as demonstrated by some of Lee's squadron selections, clearly demonstrate that point to point comparison of empires does not work because the bang for buck for ships of each empire vary within the empire itself. Finally, we do not have enough granularity in the ship choices and enough consistency in that granularity between empires to allow a micromanaging of the point value multipliers we have been using (it is important to note that 1% is only 4.5 points for a 450 point squadron).
As a quick aside, there has been a lot of discussion by Pat and Lee with regard to handicapping. I do not believe we have any evidence that a FC shark tank is driving players away. I do think we have a few players that haven't liked some of the tough to beat squadrons they have run into and that has discouraged them. However, I feel most of the loss of players has been from folks who either just are not satisfied with their own play, have gotten their FC fix satisfied for the time being (e.g., Orgyockbo) or have had real life changes that don't allow them enough free time to participate right now (e.g., EricPhillips, Paul Scott and Garrett).
Personally, I have zero interest in a handicapping and I say that as a weak to average skill player (I am good a strategizing, but I am unfortunately poor at having consistently good performance in execution). Then again, I come from a perspective where I want my wins from skill to be real wins (not fabrications from handicapping) and it doesn't particularly bother me that I may not be able to beat certain players. As Pat will tell you, while his Tholians were a real challenge and did me in during the last tournament, I enjoyed every minute of it and I certainly picked up some useful ideas for the future from him. I bet I would have enjoyed going up against Lee's wacky Orion squadrons as well.
Returning to staleness and the challenge of maintaining play balance between empires, the past few weeks I have been reviewing possible options for future.
We could move to a scenario based tournament. This would add a lot of variety and test the skill of players in handling a lot of different empires and situations all within a single tournament. This is the great strength of Advanced Squad Leader tournaments. However, Advanced Squad Leader is blessed with thousands of well balanced scenarios. We do not have that luxury available to us for FC. We could try to get there for a tournament by tweaking the better balanced existing scenarios, but there are two challenges with doing so. First, not everyone has all of the products. So, using scenarios outside of Communique could be a problem unless we were to design new scenarios. Also, Communique scenarios are the most likely ones to be unbalanced since they are officially in playtest status. Designing new scenarios or using Communique scenarios creates the second challenge. Such an approach requires both the time and resources necessary to complete playtesting. So, in the end, I have concluded this is not a viable option at this time.
We might move to predesignated standard tournament squadrons per SFB. However, this would eliminate the ability to purchase or bid unique squadrons and further reduce variety. It would also require a fixed tournament scenario. Finally, we need a committee to take the time to define those squadrons. While I know Brandon recently expressed an interest in this and it is attractive in that it doesn't run the risk of a blowout in play balance, personally, for me, this would quickly get stale. More importantly, there is the question of how quickly we could convene a committee and get that committee to agree on those standard squadrons. We might want playtesting of those as well, but I guess that could take place in the tournaments itself. Ultimately, I will tell you I am not willing to be a committee of one to establish standard squadrons. If someone else wants to take it on, then I am good with that and good with letting the tournament move on to a new facilitator.
We might return to the 450 point format of the Winter 2012 tournament using the Fall 2012 point multipliers adjusting the Feds down an increment, the Tholians up an increment, the Orions up an increment and the Gorns down an increment (maybe some other empire adjustments as well). I think we have outlived the need for the over subscription rule and I agree with Lee that it has made the Feds too expensive. I would replace that with a first come, first served rule. Under this rule, you could not sign up for an empire if it would cause more than 1/4 of the players to be playing the same empire. It would take popularity out of the playbalancing. We would use a 32 hex start with a small hex location map with no terrain. There would be no starting facing or baseline speed requirements. There would be no penalties for shuttles. We would continue with a 10 Turn limit and strictly enforced monthly match completion deadlines. The advantage of this is that it is the easiest and quickest approach to getting the next tournament going. However, it does not solve my concern with staleness. Also, I think folks are looking for some additional new purchase restrictions on ships. So, there could be a delay in working this out. If folks conclude they really don't want to go down the road of my proposed 2nd Revolution (see below), I am willing to facilitate one more tournament of this format. After that, I would like to step down from facilitating, as I feel my interest level is failing due to the staleness that is growing with regard to ship choices and the sameness of the tournament scenario from tournament to tournament (Exception: If the ISC, Vudar and Andromedans are added to the client and all their weapons work in the client, my interest level would significantly increase).
And, now, finally, the proposed 2nd Revolution ...
This started with me thinking about adding variety and how to do it while maintaining rough playbalance. I examined once again Lee's previous idea of a reverse standard tournament format. This is one where you purchase the squadron you will always fight against in the tournament. The idea is to get folks to select mediocre ships that rarely are purchased and as a result rarely see play (e.g., Fed CL). It is abundantly clear the existing empire point modifiers would not work and other interesting unforeseen problems could develop. I decided that before I could try something as radical Lee's idea, or even simpler things like adding terrain to the standard tournament scenario, I needed to develop a way to dynamically establish rough playbalance such that playbalance could be readily adjusted to handle changes to the tournament scenario.
If I could solve that problem, we could radically change the tournament scenario from tournament to tournament introducing almost unlimited variety and avoiding the rut of a standard tournament scenario, limited workable ship selections and all sorts of ship purchase prohibitions.
One way to do this would be to have a committee work out empire point value multipliers and ship purchase restrictions before the start of each tournament. However, that of course takes time and more importantly where do we get our volunteers for the committee and how do we get to a consensus? I also remembered my aforementioned conclusions on the inadequacy of the point system. We seem to try to work in terms of point multipliers, but it is really specific ship combinations that drive playbalance at a given total point level under a given tournament scenario.
This led me down the road of an idea.
What if I combined the committee and ship selection into one process? Specifically, the players become the committee and they come to a rough consensus with regard rough playbalance through the process of selecting their ships.
This led me to the idea of using an auction where the players know the exact squadrons they are up against.
To make this concept work a baseline would be needed. Otherwise, the auction would be inherently unstable. Since total points have the flaws I have discussed,
I came up with the idea of the Base Squadron, which would be a predefined squadron of a specific empire. It sets the target for convergence for the players' bids on squadrons for each empire, but the target is the perceived strength of the Base Squadron in the tournament scenario that is to be played, not just the total point value of the Base Squadron, since the exact makeup of the Base Squadron is known.
To ensure convergence to the target of the Base Squadron, I assign it to a player. This player can force this squadron on another player by winning a bid for another squadron. This player should in most cases be willing to bid a specific squadron of another empire down to just short of the point where the squadron that would be bid is perceived by the player as being weaker than the Base Squadron. At the same time, all the other players know that as a minimum they might face the Base Squadron in combat in the tournament and, thus, will not be willing to bid a squadron for a particular empire that is weaker than the Base Squadron.
The auction itself is conducted to establish the remaining squadrons and assign them to players. Each squadron is determined by first selecting an empire and then opening bidding with a squadron for that empire that is far stronger than any player would find acceptable for the other players to have. Hence, it must have a starting total point value much higher than that of the Base Squadron. Downward bidding then proceeds by players bidding specific squadrons of that empire that have a lower total point value than the latest standing squadron bid. Bidding ends when all but one player has passed and that one player is assigned the squadron. Again, the threat of going up against the Base Squadron acts as a floor establishing a target.
Since the winning bidder may have already been assigned a squadron (perhaps the Base Squadron), something needs to be done with that previously assigned squadron if this happens. If it is not the Base Squadron, it is offered as is to each of the players who have not yet been assigned a squadron and discarded if none of them take it. If it is the Base Squadron, it is offered as is to each of the players who have not yet been assigned a squadron, but if they all pass, the last such player to pass on it must take assignment of it. It is never discarded.
It is possible irrational bidding (due to an overly strong desire to play a particular empire, gross misunderstanding of the relative strength of a particular squadron, or plain craziness) could lead to some unbalanced squadrons. However, as long as there is at least one rationale bidder, this irrational bid should only directly adversely affect that irrational bidder.
So, now you have the complete story with regard to how and why I arrived at my proposed ship selection method for the next tournament. I am now going to return to focusing on setting up the mock test of it, but if it doesn't work out, or if you all find me to be crazy, I have outlined above some of the other alternatives that are available for the next tournament.
Thanks,