Jack's play was fantastic in Game 2.3, I will share a write-up later on.

It was a 7 turn match, and not nearly over. To be honest, at 3.32, I was almost sure I had lost the match already, but decided to continue to see if I could make up lost ground. It was a long-shot, since it relied on getting lucky, or out-guessing Jack. I was super fortunate to do both.

As I remarked with him several times, it is so ironic that he logs in as a "Cadet", he is at least Captain if not Admiral level. He mentioned that he has won the Sapphire tournament three times. Since there have been 12 tournaments, it makes him a super champion.

Obviously, he needs a break, and I hope he enjoys it. I hope he makes it back after getting refreshed.

By Geoffrey Clark (Spartan) on Tuesday, November 22, 2022 - 10:46 am: Edit

Game 2.3 MadJack's LYR vs Spartan's RKR

Turn 1 - RKR has 21-31-21 plot, Enveloped S and holding G. LYR has 17,25,20 plot. RKR crosses the T and launches EPT at range 10, turns off. LYR realizes range 8 is impossible, even running through the EPT, so turns in to run, fires 4xph-3 on imp 30. RKR comes about to give chase.

Turn 2 - RKR has a 26 plot all turn, with pre-plotted HET. LYR has 26-31-19 plot, runs out EPT to nill, RKR is in the middle of the map, turns down to try to get behind, LYR raises ESGs on imp 26, RKR does not quite make it past FA as LYR turns in, RKR slips out to range 5 and LYR decides to drop ESGs and blasts RKR with 3xOL (no UIM) and 6xph-1s, rolls 4,4,4 with OL, does 35 total, giving RKR 5 internals through the #2, one ph-3, and 4xHull (?). RKR turns in, and on imp 31, RKR launches S+F+F (S is fake), fires phasers on the #3, does 14 points.

Turn 3 - RKR has 15-28-14 plot, puts 13 points in tractor (plus btty), LYR has a 26-31-16 plot, turns out to run from plasma. The way movement works, the LYR gets 2xph-1s on the down #2 before the RKR can turn, takes 7 internals 2xwarp and 3 control (!!), plus hull. LYR raises ESGs imp 11, but LYR is running away from plasma, out runs the Fs, fires phasers at the S, finds a fake. RKR turns out, as the anchor is obviously not going to happen, seeks to avoid ESGs. then later, turns back in, we end the turn about range 10.

Turn 4 - RKR plots 21-15 and arms an EPT, LYR plots 20-31-20, imp 5, RKR finally launches the held G as S, LYR drops ESGs on imp 6, turns out to run from S, after phaser fire, no damage, RKR uses reserve to accel to 28 late in the turn, and launches EPT on imp 32.

Turn 5 - RKR plots 15, arms 2xF, re-arming S torps, PFC. LYR plots 9-4-14 and uses WW#1 on EPT. RKR turns off and runs to the middle of the map, LYR blasts the #4 with 4xDISR, hits for 9.

Turn 6 - RKR plots 28 all turn, LYR is 14-26. RKR runs across the map, then turns up, LYR is in pursuit, RKR is keeping range 9-10. At one point, LYR turns directly in, and RKR launches F+quickF (40 pts) and continues to run. LYR slips out, fires 8xph-3 at plasma, and takes on the #5, and continues to chase. Imp 32 movement, RKR is presented with a choice to turn and run along the map edge, but with plasma out of arc, or turn towards the wall, decides to turn towards the wall to bring plasma into arc.

Turn 7 - RKR plots 21-28-15, LYR is 19-9-?. RKR sees speed 19 and launches S+F (both real), moves to skirt the wall at speed 21. LYR slips a bit, fires only 2xph-3s at plasma and takes 42 on the #6, 12 internals are 1xESG, 3xphs, 2xwarp, hull. Imp 7, LYR changes speed to 9, imp 8, RKR changes speed to 28, LYR gets to range 5 centerlined and fires 4xOL-w-uim, 7xph-1s on the RKR's 24-box #3, but rolls like 6,6,5,6, and also poorly with phasers, scores 25 total. This result is really surprising, and the game ends shortly thereafter with Jack's concecssion.

I felt that the game was not nearly over, it was just getting back to even, since lady luck bit Jack pretty hard, and I was able to outguess him on the move plot - seems he thought I would stop, but instead I decided to run at high speed, since I did not want to be caught t at close range for multiple turns of DISR and phasers.

Great Game Jack! Sorry it was so frustrating. Hope you can refresh your SFB game after some time away.

By Ginger McMurray (Gingermcmurray) on Tuesday, November 22, 2022 - 10:52 am: Edit

What was the thinking behind firing phaser-3s at such long range in turn 1?

By Jack Taylor (Jtaylor) on Tuesday, November 22, 2022 - 01:07 pm: Edit

Ginger- I fired 4 p3 at the enveloper at r-2 turn 1.

By Ginger McMurray (Gingermcmurray) on Tuesday, November 22, 2022 - 03:01 pm: Edit

That makes much more sense. LOL

By Peter Bakija (Bakija) on Tuesday, November 22, 2022 - 04:28 pm: Edit

Yeah, sometimes the dice decide to kill you.

By Jack Taylor (Jtaylor) on Tuesday, November 22, 2022 - 04:43 pm: Edit

This is all the p1 and 8 overloaded disruptors I fired at Geof's ship at range 5:

3,3,3,3,3,3,4,4,4,5,5,5,5,6,6,6,6,6,6,6,6,6

no one's or twos at all.

I found a nifty website:

https://www.gigacalculator.com/calculators/dice-probability-calculator.php

The odds of rolling a one or 2 on 22 rolls:

0.99986634281786 (99.9866%)

Dice odds are 1 in 85,222.7 that on 22 die rolls none will be 1 or 2. <- this actually happened.

The grand total of my die rolls is 104. Dice odds of rolling that high in sum are 1 in 2,772.7 <-this happened

Geof only rolled 5p1 the whole game: 3,5,5,6,6.

If you add his dice to my summary the Dice odds are 1 in 67,063.7. <-this actually happened

If you add every roll, including every P3 I fired at torps - the summary of those dice (including Geof's roll) the odds of the dice adding up to that much are 1 in 447. <-this happened in real life too.

Interestingly, the first time I played Geof in Sapphire I rolled 6 sixes at range 4 with p1's.

Dice odds for that happening are 1 in 46,656.

I know everyone will say there is nothing that could be going wrong here. I will say from experience that something doesn't feel right. Repeatedly for years the die roller seems off. Statistically almost impossible things are happening ALOT.

By Peter Bakija (Bakija) on Tuesday, November 22, 2022 - 04:56 pm: Edit

Yep. Twice in a row when I was playing the stinking Vudar (in one of those middle SS games), my first volley of overloads hitting on, like, 8's or 9's (once each, IIRC), I hit with 1 of 4 of them. Twice. In a row.

By Peter Bakija (Bakija) on Tuesday, November 22, 2022 - 05:47 pm: Edit

Jack wrote:
>>I know everyone will say there is nothing that could be going wrong here. I will say from experience that something doesn't feel right. Repeatedly for years the die roller seems off. Statistically almost impossible things are happening ALOT.>>

Like, I don't wanna make things seem worse, but yeah, I don't think anything is going wrong here. I think it is just another example of "lots of dice being rolled lots of times, but when outlier terrible things happen, they really stand out".

My experience over a long period of time of playing on SFBOL using the built in dice roller? Everything seems about average. Yeah, sometimes you get weird streaky outliers (see: those two games where I was the Vudar). And 'cause they are printed out and saved for a long time, they are memorable. But overall, everything seems to even out in the end. Sometimes you roll a bunch of 1's and 2's. Sometimes you roll a bunch of 5's and 6's. In the grand scheme, it seems to all likely even out.

By Daniel Bitseff (Cadet_Stimpy) on Tuesday, November 22, 2022 - 05:58 pm: Edit

I use the external die roller option, I thought everyone did.

By Jack Taylor (Jtaylor) on Tuesday, November 22, 2022 - 06:03 pm: Edit

Peter - I know the roller is probably fine. I don't see a bunch of crazy stuff happening to others. I know it is just me and I am that unlucky. I know I played my last game here as well as I could possibly play it. I would not change anything.

For me, I literally have to hold my breath with every shot because so much misses. It's just not worth 4.5 hours of stress on my heart to get beaten down by 1:2,227 odds. It's not infrequent for me. It's like 3 out of 4. I am good enough to win mostly 3 out 4 but I am often fighting back out of a hole too often. It's too stressful.

Anyone got any ideas on something else I can play on my laptop that would be fun and involve a lot less luck?

By Daniel Bitseff (Cadet_Stimpy) on Tuesday, November 22, 2022 - 06:26 pm: Edit

You don't have to roll to hit with plasma....

Well, unless you're boltin' Bakija :D

By David Jannke (Bigslowtarget) on Tuesday, November 22, 2022 - 08:19 pm: Edit

Re: Kzin v Gorn

I need to catch up with Droid but I have time to do that at this point.

By Mike Erickson (Mike_Erickson) on Wednesday, November 23, 2022 - 11:22 am: Edit

>> fun and involve a lot less luck

How about chess.com? Fun, classic game -- no dice rolling of any kind!

My heart goes out to you Jack. Extended sequences of dice rolls coming up bad can be really soul crushing -- particularly during critical game sections. And it is little solace to hear that "statistically, on average, it all evens out in the end". For *you* the sequence was bad, possibly game losing, and it is a real experience that just happened to you and it stinks and there is not much you can do about it.

A couple things I'll offer up to you that I've mentioned previously that may be interesting:

1. Having the other player roll the dice for you, and you roll for them. You can also roll to see who will roll the next roll(s).

2. Generate pre-printed lists of dice rolls, exactly matching the distribution, and mark them off as you use them.

3. Apply the statistical output percentage of the dice roll to the weapon damage rather then using a roll. So a disruptor at range 15 is a 1-4 for a 2 point damage weapon. Statistically, that would be (2/3) * 2 or 1 1/3 damage, without dice.

Obviously, #2 and #3 change the game significantly, but it does remove dice rolling.

--Mike

By Andy Koch (Droid) on Wednesday, November 23, 2022 - 11:41 am: Edit

I rolled 1 point over minimum possible with 4 ols and 4 p-1s at R1 to a Hydran a few years ago. But that was rolling actual dice, so...really has nothing to do with this conversation

By Ginger McMurray (Gingermcmurray) on Wednesday, November 23, 2022 - 11:56 am: Edit

A couple of weeks ago I rolled 28 photons at a 50% chance to hit. Only 6 connected. Sometimes the dice gods are angry and there's nothing you can do about it.

By Jack Taylor (Jtaylor) on Wednesday, November 23, 2022 - 12:00 pm: Edit

Thanks Mike - I appreciate the time you took to write that all that out. I already like you too much to be the one rolling your dice. I wouldn't do that to anyone but Seth.

Truth is though - Seth also has luck about as good as mine, so I wouldn't be much better off.

By Jack Taylor (Jtaylor) on Wednesday, November 23, 2022 - 12:20 pm: Edit

Ginger - if the actual rolls are evenly distributed in your scenario (6 dice 3 or less, rest >3) - what happened to you should happen 1:162.1

By Ginger McMurray (Gingermcmurray) on Wednesday, November 23, 2022 - 12:59 pm: Edit

Which means "not often but sometimes." The same as 1:2,227 but one order of magnitude different.

By Andy Koch (Droid) on Wednesday, November 23, 2022 - 01:13 pm: Edit

David:
I sent you an E mail .
We can do tonight or some night next week

By Jeff Guthridge (Jeff_Guthridge) on Wednesday, November 23, 2022 - 02:27 pm: Edit

Jack its not just you either.

I just looked at the Dice Monitor function on SFBOL and for my part I get an odd spread. "6" wins (19.4%), then close behind that is "3" (18.4%), followed by "5" (17.4%), then "4" (17.3%), with "2" (15.2%) beating "1" (11.8%).

Presuming you have not uninstalled the client yet, it might be interesting to see what your Dice Monitor reports. Its found under Tools in the main window.

I've heard that Paul has put some effort into this, but I've been surprised at the internal RNG. Its almost to the point of wanting to use the SFBOL dice roller for character creation D&D Ability score rolls... Pardon, I die-gres.

In any game that uses them, dice can bite you. Its just horrible when it feels like the dice have decided that you shall not prevail no matter how hard you try.

The first time I tried to teach SFB to wargaming newbies... Coincided with the same weekend I had picked up R5 and I had the flawed idea of playing with my new toys and teaching! I thought that with all of those systems, it would be more forgiving even if it made for a marathon session. Turns out, I was badly wrong. The short version follows with the names changed to protect ME.

On the first battle pass, Allen brought his B11 into overload range of Tim's Fed BB, but Tim seeing the approach side-slipped Allen onto his centerline. Allen fired at range 5 on the move before he could turn away. Of eight disrupters, only three hit. I remember he didn't fire any phasers, but don't recall why not. In any case, the volley resulted in nothing past shields.

Tim fired the next impulse after moving to range 4, but decided to be cute. Having heard me talk about the rules for it, and when to do it, he took the wrong lesson and Narrow Salvo'd eight 16 pt photons and 10 Ph-1s. Rolling snake-eyes for 178 points of combined damage.

It was probably the single largest application of damage from a single attack in all my time playing the game. Allen had some specific reinforcement and burned his batteries to get it down to a hundred or so internals as I recall. Tim was giddy with the prospect of making the BB a wreck.

Allen looked shocked, Tim looked smug, and I thought I was going to need two new friends and maybe a police escort to my car.

I told them we would start again with frigates. Tim's luck didn't shine in the second game, and he never picked SFB up again. Allen was playing five years later when I lost touch with him.

By Peter Bakija (Bakija) on Wednesday, November 23, 2022 - 02:40 pm: Edit

Heh, I just went and looked at my dice monitor (SFBOL internal dice roller), 'cause this discussion reminded me that it existed.

It has recorded 1689 die rolls, with an average of 3.5062 (i.e. insignificantly above perfect average). My two most common rolls are 6 (302) and 3 (also 302), but given that I have rolled 291 1's, that's probably ok. I have rolled 861 numbers in the 1-3 range (i.e. generally the good numbers) vs 828 numbers in the 4-6 range (generally the not as good numbers), so statistically speaking, I'm actually a little on the good side of average.

By Ted Fay (Catwhoeatsphoto) on Wednesday, November 23, 2022 - 02:43 pm: Edit

---

Quote:

3,3,3,3,3,3,4,4,4,5,5,5,5,6,6,6,6,6,6,6,6,6

---

By Jack Taylor (Jtaylor) on Wednesday, November 23, 2022 - 10:34 pm: Edit

Peter- the problem with the die monitor is that it includes the internal rolls. So, it adds 2 rolls for every internal. I think it also counts lab rolls, breakdown rolls, every "roll". It's not a problem really, it just clouds the picture of what's happening when it really matters.

I did confirm my die roller does not include the rolls of others. The die roller is probably fine. It's just me and reliably its bad when I am firing weapons. I am calmer already just accepting that.

By David Jannke (Bigslowtarget) on Thursday, November 24, 2022 - 12:09 am: Edit

Andy - guess my email got eaten or something. I was on tonight but can also do tomorrow. I'll send more emails.