China's really mad now,
Temu Trucks are burning bright.
Hundred and twenty percent now,
And sanctions are a trick of the light

Markets, calm down,
Markets, calm down.

China's really mad now,
Tariffs have grown and grown.
Hundred and twenty percent now,
And DC has an address unknown.

Markets, calm down,
Markets, calm down,
Markets, calm down,
Markets, calm down.

By Chuck Strong (Raider) on Wednesday, April 09, 2025 - 11:49 pm: Edit

Don't be a panican!

By Mike Grafton (Mike_Grafton) on Thursday, April 10, 2025 - 08:07 am: Edit

IMHO ALL elected and appointed officials should get PUBLICALLY audited annually by an outside agency with independent prosecutors. Including Justices, Congressmen, President, Secretaries, etc. I don't trust any of them and would mandate extremely tough ethics rules and penalties...

By Vincent Solfronk (Vsolfronk) on Thursday, April 10, 2025 - 10:49 am: Edit

Someone mentioned the costs of trying to manufacture boardgames here in the states. Here is a copy of an email from Quimby Games who, after partnering with Peterson Games (producer of Cthulhu games and others):

"In a prior post on April 3, "The Darkest Timeline", Stegmaier states what many other publishers have: "Manufacturing the types of games we make is not an option in the U.S." He then links to a story I've run across a few times, but haven't yet shared: "My Year in Manufacturing & Games", a February 17, 2025 article by Steve Heumann that details the fruitless efforts by publisher Quimbley's Toys & Games to produce games in the U.S. Excerpts:
Quote:
One of the primary focuses of Quimbley's was going to be the building of a manufacturing plant here in Utah that would allow games and toys to be produced in the United States as opposed to China. This is the goal (at least stated goal) of so many politicians and business leaders across the country.

We were going to put our money where our mouth was and produce right here at home...

We found that producing a board game here in the states would cost us almost double what it would in China, meaning we would have to charge double in order to pay for everything...

Even with the machines we had bought, we still couldn't compete with Chinese prices. We tried different products and fun RPG battle mats, but we always came back to the same conclusion. We were able to produce some things pretty well, like wooden accessories and such, but not at the scale that would make them viable mass market products.
What was Quimbley's trying to produce?

Quote:
Quimbley's was the brain child of a good friend of mine. He had taken over the flailing game company Petersen Games, producers of the famous board game Cthulhu Wars. After a long list of successful Kickstarter games, Petersen had run into logistical problems and had failed to produce their last five fully funded games. The plan was to produce those games and use them as a means of catapulting Quimbley's to the top of the charts...

And then we started looking more closely at what had been promised to the backers and how much it would cost to fulfill in the real world. The prices they had paid on the Kickstarter would barely cover production on one of the more complicated games, let alone shipping costs and having any profits left over. There were so many plastic miniatures in the game that tooling alone was a crushing financial burden that would cripple the merchandise line commercially before anything else was even produced.

What we thought would catapult us into the stratosphere turned out to be digging our grave.
So that was two giant mistakes undertaken by Quimbley's: trying to manufacture in the U.S. without understanding the costs involved, and trying to resuscitate an underwater project without understanding the costs involved...and yet Heumann writes, "Just because it didn't work out exactly the way we'd hoped doesn't mean it wasn't a success. Success is measured in a lot of different ways, and for me, Quimbley's hits too many of them to be considered anything less than a triumph of grit, determination, and the desire to bring good into people's lives." We had grit, determination, and desire — that's three successes!"

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Thursday, April 10, 2025 - 04:08 pm: Edit

Production prices being double in the US compared to China matches what I found. On the other hand, I found doing business in China frustrating to the point of madness. With a US manufacturer I could get on the phone and spitball ideas and find ways to do things. With China it was "tell us exactly what you want, even if you don't know exactly what you want, and you will get exactly what you said you wanted, unless you don't for some reason we won't be responsible for even it was our fault." And they wanted to be paid in advance. And if you don't like what shows up on the boat, too bad. And don't even ask them about working conditions or toxic components of products.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Thursday, April 10, 2025 - 04:20 pm: Edit

I sent Steve Jackson my little Mars theme parody and he liked it.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Thursday, April 10, 2025 - 06:11 pm: Edit

Helicopter crash in New York City, six killed, five of them Spanish tourists (mother, father, three kids). No sign of any weapons used against the helicopter. Seems to have been some kind of mechanical failure. Our hearts and prayers are with the families. My concerns go out to the company owners who will face major losses and problems in staying in business.

By Mike Grafton (Mike_Grafton) on Friday, April 11, 2025 - 07:50 am: Edit

If a "Game Distributor" finds his "US Made" components cost double what Chinese ones do, that does NOT double the price of the game.

1) Costs to design and playtest don't increase
2) Shipping costs from the US distribution center don't increase
3) Advertising doesn't change (do game manufacturers give free copies to reviewers/ influencers?)
4) Management and profit per unit don't change
5) Store markup doesn't change.

SVC knows these things and a thousand more I would never dream of. He and Steve Jackson are the only two game manufacturers that have been in business more than 20 years except for the behemoths I can think of. Places like Mattel, TSR, Hasbro all got bought up and "management run" by VCs and such long ago.

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Friday, April 11, 2025 - 08:49 am: Edit

It appears that the 180 on the heavy-duty tariffs was prompted by developments in the bond market. Major holders of U.S. bonds were dumping their holdings, in huge quantities. And by "major holders", I don't mean, say, "Warren Buffet"; rather, I mean, say, "Japan," which is the single-largest holder of U.S. bonds, and has been the single-largest seller since the new tariffs were announced.

When people (or countries, in this case) start dumping bonds, it has two effects, one abstract, one concrete. The abstract effect is that it signals a lack of confidence in the U.S. economy. The concrete effect is that it makes it harder for the U.S. government to sell new bonds. In response, the government has to increase the yield, which makes borrowing more expensive. Since much government spending is funded by borrowing, then more expensive borrowing means larger deficits, with all the deleterious effects that entails.

These two dynamics — reduced confidence in the U.S. economy, coupled with higher deficits — can push a flourishing economy into a recession, and can push an economy in recession into a depression. The latter outcome is, according to reporting yesterday from The Wall Street Journal, what really spooked the administration. Allegedly, Trump was willing to accept recession-level pain, but not depression-level pain.

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Friday, April 11, 2025 - 09:22 am: Edit

Mind, the remaining major tariff war is with China, and that has its own destabilizing effects that go well beyond the cost for U.S. consumers and the lost market for U.S. agriculture (as it happens, I work for an ag college, and let me tell you, farmers who grow export crops - i.e. most farmers of size in my state - are looking for a tall hay loft from which to leap).

Our volume of trade with China has been one of the stabilizing factors that, among other things, has kept the PRC from taking a serious stab at invading the ROC; just outright seizing everything in and around the South China Sea; etc. Removing that trade (which is what the current level of tariffs does) also removes a major reason for China to restrain itself from such actions, and raises the risk that they move from saber-rattling to actual military action.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Friday, April 11, 2025 - 07:32 pm: Edit

Actually, the retail price does double when the printing cost doubles.

Game companies add up the cost of components and multiply by a number that accounts for overhead and other items. This varies company by company, but is generally designed so that the revenue doubles or triples the cost.

A $100 game nets about $38 from a wholesaler. So a game with a cost of $9 retails for about $50 and an $18 cost game retails for about $100.

There is only so much money so $30,000 will print six games costing $5000 or three games that cost $10,000. Three $100 retail games will produce at most 80% of the sales of six $50 games.

The cost of game design is a very tiny part of the cost.
The cost of the play testing is in scale as it is a few free copies.
Shipping costs are a small amount and part of the cost is insurance which scales.

Advertising is trivial as most companies don’t pay for ads. Those that do have to spend twice the ads on a more expensive games to try to force an expensive game into the market.

Management and profit are not flat fees but tied to cost.

Store markup is a percentage of product cost.

By Mike Grafton (Mike_Grafton) on Saturday, April 12, 2025 - 10:53 am: Edit

Thank you. Most of that is non intuitive to a non businessman like me.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Thursday, April 17, 2025 - 05:43 pm: Edit

Could I ask a semi-political question?

I am constantly seeing reports on the illegal alien deportation thing, which we all know is very controversial and we have discussed it about as much as we need to. But there is one point that confuses me.

Why were the criminal types included? I know why some want lots of immigrants (cheap labor, votes for a particular party when they eventually become citizens or have citizen children), but it seems to me that including criminals (which could have been screened out it seems) just gave the hard working "give me your poor, your homeless, yearning to be free" a bad name.

Lots of people don't want any immigrants, lots more don't want any illegal immigrants and are really picking about what immigrants they do want, but nobody (other than the previous administration) seems to have wanted outright criminals. This seems to have been a political loser of a policy move.

And why the battle over "the Maryland dad"? That guy is a criminal, a member of MS13, has been ordered deported twice, has already exhausted every appeal, has restraining orders from his baby mamas, and isn't any paragon of fatherhood. I get that it's all a tactic: force the administration to give exhaustive judicial processes to everyone to slow down all deportations because sooner or later Homan will come for the non-criminals. But as a test-case/posterboy this seems a political loser. Find someone who got wrongfully deported instead of this guy who had deportation orders in force. If you bring him back to the US he just has to be deported again as he has no legal appeals available.

By Garth L. Getgen (Sgt_G) on Thursday, April 17, 2025 - 06:14 pm: Edit

[sorry, Garth, but I fear that comment would be regarded as inflamatory.]

By MarkSHoyle (Bolo) on Thursday, April 17, 2025 - 06:21 pm: Edit

Holman didn't come after them, though anyone in the residence or dealing with any criminal aliens at the time they are detained, are also detained and deported....

By Jeff Anderson (Jga) on Thursday, April 17, 2025 - 06:38 pm: Edit

(This may also be regarded as inflammatory. If so, please feel free to delete.)

SVC: It is with great sadness that I must report that the United States has become a nation of idiots. There are people who, in the name of their hatreds, will ignore facts that don't reinforce their beliefs to the point where they call those facts "Lies."

This "Maryland Man" is a case in point that's VERY close to home for me.

I have a cousin who's a Brown Shirt (and I'm using that pejorative in full knowledge of the historical implication of it) for the far left. She is in a position of being an Influencer and when she was over for a visit not too long ago, I overheard her posting about this case.

According to what she was propagating, the "Maryland Man" was being deported for having an "Autism Awareness" tattoo and that the "Racist Authorities" were using that as a "False Excuse to Unjustly Claim he was Part of MS13."

Sad thing is, she REALLY believed that load of Bravo Sierra, and any information that ran contrary to that belief, she wouldn't accept because the news feeds that she follows would not permit any information about his tats (save the one "Autism Awareness" one) to be presented.

Her filter of what she considers acceptable sources is so narrow that the only "Sources" of information that she trusts are from outside the United States; she won't even trust sources as questionable as MSNPC.

What she believes and follows is only those that reinforce her own hatred. Sadly, though, as I said, she is a social influencer and an organizer with an extremist political organization (if anyone is interested in exactly which one, please feel free to email me and I'll be happy to share) and, as a result, is able to reinforce the wrong ideas and propagate the hate.

I say we have become a nation of idiots because she can do that and it resonates across what American society has degenerated into.

(Again, if this is regarded as too inflammatory, please delete it.)

By A David Merritt (Adm) on Thursday, April 17, 2025 - 06:50 pm: Edit

My understanding;
First; a Lawyer representing the Trump Administration stated that he was deported due to an administrative error.
This gives Mr Garcia's case a big boost up for being returned.

Second, per the WSJ his wife is who started the request for his return, other sources report that he lives with her, and his children.

Third; the accusations of MS-13 membership appear to stem form an informant in NYC about him being active in the local gang scene.
A) There is no evidence that he ever went to NYC.
B) the Officer who brought this information forward has since been fired for mishandling such informants.
C) the informant has disappeared.

Is he the "best" choice, likely not, however; due process applies to everyone in the US in order to avoid this sort of administrative error, amongst other things.

By A David Merritt (Adm) on Thursday, April 17, 2025 - 06:55 pm: Edit

A question for the board;

President Trump started his use of tariffs this time with Canada, and Mexico, stating that the US had negotiated very bad deals with both countries.

The deal in place was the USMCA, which was negotiated in his last Administration.

If he will not honor treaties made in his name, how will this affect negotiations over his current set of tariffs?

By Ryan Opel (Ryan) on Thursday, April 17, 2025 - 07:28 pm: Edit

Well his country of citizenship said we can't have him back. So I guess to bad. His wife and kids can move to El Salvador to be with him if they want.

By Carl-Magnus Carlsson (Hardcore) on Thursday, April 17, 2025 - 07:41 pm: Edit

Svc, if you mean Kilmar Abrego Garcia, then it would be allegedly criminal, allegedly member of a criminal gang, etc, at least as reported by news sources i know. There is a Wikipedia page about the case, maybe you will find answers there.

SVC: two Federal judges say he is MS13, and a criminal, and scheduled for deportation, so alleged is out the door.

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Thursday, April 17, 2025 - 07:44 pm: Edit

Concerning USMCA:

There are at least two sides in contention (three if you want to talk about the Democratic Party policy issues…).But in general, the treaty (depending on who you ask) favored Mexico more than the U.S. in particular, prior to the November 2024 election a number of fortune 500 corporations were in the process of closing U.S. factories, laying off U.S. workers and expanding production capacity in Mexico. (John Deere being most often cited in the mainstream media).

To a lesser extent, Canada was allegedly also gaining jobs, but is less well documented.

What was being talked about was the asymmetric trade protections in place in Canada to protect agricultural products ( milk, eggs, butter etc.) stemming from the tariffs in place charging more for U.S. goods imported and no matching tariffs on Canadian Agricultural goods (again milk, eggs, butter etc…)

I could talk about the Democratic party policy, but there isn’t much coordination as to just what the Democrats really want, other than opposition to anything Donal Trump is trying to accomplish.

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Thursday, April 17, 2025 - 07:44 pm: Edit

Regarding SVC's question: it comes down to due process.

It may well be that some, many, or most of those sent to the facility in El Salvador are criminals. It may also well be that some, many, or most of those sent to the facility in El Salvador are not criminals. We don't know, because there was no due process; the administration claimed the right to remove them without due process under the Enemy Aliens Act of 1798*.

When due process can be denied for some, it can be denied for all. This is particularly pertinent inasmuch as the President has, several times this week, made reference to a desire to send U.S. citizens to the facility in El Salvador, so much so that he asked the president of that country to build more facilities to accommodate the anticipated need.

At the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum, a concentration camp is defined as a place where “in which people are detained or confined, usually under harsh conditions and without regard to legal norms of arrest and imprisonment that are acceptable in a constitutional democracy.” CECOT, the Salvadorian prison to which the U.S. has been sending residents (both legal and not) of the U.S. without due process, meets all of these requirements.

It is for these reasons that there is a battle underway regarding these transfers.

* It should be noted that the Enemy Aliens Act of 1798 may be invoke in times of “declared war” or when a foreign government threatens or undertakes an “invasion” or “predatory incursion” against U.S. territory. In the Constitution and other late-1700s statutes, the term invasion is used literally, typically to refer to large-scale attacks. The term predatory incursion is also used literally in writings of that period to refer to slightly smaller attacks like the 1781 Raid on Richmond led by American defector Benedict Arnold. If we are to use an originalist interpretation, neither an “invasion” nor a “predatory incursion” may credibly be claimed as applying to migration.

By Carl-Magnus Carlsson (Hardcore) on Thursday, April 17, 2025 - 07:51 pm: Edit

Ryan Opel, luckily for him, maybe, is that the courts don't buy that and is investigating possible members of the executive branch for contempt of court.

By A David Merritt (Adm) on Thursday, April 17, 2025 - 09:23 pm: Edit

Jeff Wile (Jswile)

My question does not address if the USMCA was a good deal, or a bad deal, that is irrelevant to my question.

Given that the USMCA has President Trump's signature on it, if he will not honor treaties made in his name, how will this affect negotiations over his current set of tariffs?

By MarkSHoyle (Bolo) on Thursday, April 17, 2025 - 09:27 pm: Edit

If the Progressives can find a Judge, willing to file charges against the guy (already a restraining order by his wife), and issue an extradition order and hold a hearing in El Salvador, then maybe they can return him, place him in a prison and hold a trial...