Not so sure about that.

Let's assume the above numbers. Klingons only have 65 SEQ to hit 1401. I will still have 30 SEQ, plus Marquis (roughly 17 SEQ) in two reserves. That gives me 47 SEQ against 90 Klingons, of which only 65 can hit 1401.

Count's SB is safe. He's crippled the Lyran fleet. Will only take 5 SEQ, maybe less, to ensure it stays up CT2.

Duke's SB can go down, but I put a decent fleet there - say 15 SEQ. That's enough to take my pound of flesh before the SB goes down (which is inevitable anyway).

That leaves me 32 SEQ in 1401 to defend against the 65 Klingons (most of which are crappy). Yes, he could make hay, but with unblemished defenses he can't get *that* far. He *certainly* cannot take 1401. May not even want to hit Kzintai itself (12*PDU, SB, MON-V, my best ships).

This assumes *NO* field repair.

My cripples will come back fast, especially if I use ADS to fix them. I can reduce the cost using the depot for the crappier ships. Early in the game I don't need the pincount so much.

What do I gain?

1) The bulk of the available Lyran navy is out 2 whole turns (one to fly back, one to get repaired and redeployed). This is a huge bonus. Some might be out more depending on repair capacity. That means the enemy is deprived of 70 SEQ for two turns - huge.

2) I can afford to use the depot liberally, the Coalition cannot (Coalition needs high SEQ early and often). Plus, fighter superiority means that I crippled 15 fewer ships. Between the two, I inflict significantly higher economic damage than I took. Remember, when defending the capital, it's likely I don't need a lot of the riff-raff for at least 1, but more likely 3 turns.

3) On balance, delay helps the Alliance.

The *real* question is whether this reasoning actually pans out in real play. Also, dice and DD decisions can affect the outcome.

We'll see. One thing is for sure. I'm here to drive the Lyrans back from 803. I'm ready for a major fleet battle and I intend to win it. The only question is whether the Lyran thinks its in his best interest to pay the butcher bill to cripple my fleet.

I could be wrong, of course, but in my estimation this situation is win-win for the Kzinti. I win if he leaves after a round. I've pushed 75 Lyrans away from 1401 for another turn. Delay good. I win if he cripples his fleet. I've pushed 75 Lyrans away from 1401 for 2 turns, and gave better than I got.

Looking forward to seeing how this aggressive gambit actually works!

By Ted Fay (Catwhoeatsphoto) on Friday, November 02, 2018 - 01:31 pm: Edit

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dfRtrqaKb4E

By Richard B. Eitzen (Rbeitzen) on Friday, November 02, 2018 - 01:42 pm: Edit

I might have depot'd the turn one 2CLE EFF cripples...

By Michael Mascitti (Mmascit) on Friday, November 02, 2018 - 01:47 pm: Edit

Ill clarify my comment with the assumptions I made:
That for the Kzin to attack the Lyrans at 0803 the Zin would have to use all of their HF, Duke,and Count.
I will also assume that the lyran will not react out of 0803 to intercept the HF as it moves towards them.
I also assumed that in an 85 SE battle vs 75 the Zin would be retreating.
That would mean the Zin would go to 0703 and would be unable to retro to the HW. Leaving only the marquis reserve to protect the HW.

If the Zin hold 0803 then HW not in danger.

By Richard B. Eitzen (Rbeitzen) on Friday, November 02, 2018 - 01:54 pm: Edit

What is an HF?

Presumably HW is HomeWorlds.

By Ted Fay (Catwhoeatsphoto) on Friday, November 02, 2018 - 02:02 pm: Edit

HF=Home Fleet. IMO.

Zin won't retreat. Zin have the ship superiority. Retreating = bad (but not game loser).

By chris upson (Misanthropope) on Friday, November 02, 2018 - 02:29 pm: Edit

obviously the supply situation makes or breaks this, but i thought the lyrans in 0803 generally reacted onto the home fleet stack, so they could retreat at their discretion without falling out of range of the capital.

also, in this general plan accelerating the turn 2 dreadnought seems worthwhile. it's 3-5 extra compot every round but the first in what promises to be an extended fight.

By Ted Fay (Catwhoeatsphoto) on Friday, November 02, 2018 - 03:17 pm: Edit

That is not the case here. I have hit 803, and started by coming around from the side so he could not react to 903. If the Lyrans retreat, they are no longer within 6 of 1401; period.

However, if the Zin retreat, it must be to the BATS in 802 - and that does put me out of retrograde range of 1401.

Next time I might spend 6 EPs for a convoy to ensure retreat to, say, 903, so the Zin fleet can retreat after losing just fighters. However, the problem with that is that I'd lose the convoy on C2, and that's 6 EPs.

Meh. I'm happy with the situation. It remains to be seen if I *remain* happy with my decisions.

By Dana Madsen (Dfm330) on Friday, November 02, 2018 - 03:42 pm: Edit

The first 50 kzin ships left 0902 into 0802. Unless I'm making a mistake I chose not to react, I could have reacted all or most of my ships onto 0802 and pinned him. I would have needed to send 90 percent of my force to pin him there. But then he has all of his homeworlds ships. If I left any force at 0803 his homeworlds can come there with sufficient force to win even if I send reserves, I could have sent 5 to 10 ships forward to 0903. Now I also need to win at 0802 because if I want to retreat from their I'll go to 0702 which would be conveniently left empty and or fighting retreat across 0703 or into 0803. If I had moved my entire force into 0802 to pin him he can move his home fleet through sb 0902 to get there, I would have been able to react a few ships onto the SB but if I don't I'm pinned. Then he sends a few ships into 0803 which is an empty hex now. If I fighting retreat there he only needs to live through 1 to round at 15 percent damage and if anything lives I must retreat again. Out of range of the capital. He could probably arrange to do that with a BC, few DD and a FF or two. Worse case I retreat to 0702 and he doesn't get to retrograde them.

Because the majority of his ships came around the back way I don't believe I was able to set up a situation where I could react forward and then retreat back after 1 round of fighting and stay within range 6.

Also, I wasn't sure if the home fleet was going to come or if he was going to bring his auxes. He has committed the Kzin fleet to a fight which he has to win or at least stay until I'm completely crippled as well. He can defend against the klingons for turn 2 if there are no functional lyran force. He can't retreat out of this hex to 0703 after shooting only fighters and leave 20 or 30 lyrans within range of the capital.

If I fight, the Kziniti should win, they will probably have about 15 percent more ships than me. But my compot could start 10 percent bigger, although it probably won't stay there and I might have a small EW advantage. Close enough that dice could matter.

I need to look at the map and do some math but my first inclination is why wouldn't I want to fight and cripple 50 kzinti ships in deep space and not over fixed defenses.

By Ted Fay (Catwhoeatsphoto) on Friday, November 02, 2018 - 03:56 pm: Edit

To which I say, again:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dfRtrqaKb4E

By Ted Fay (Catwhoeatsphoto) on Friday, November 02, 2018 - 03:58 pm: Edit

Or, if I wanted to take the more severe tact, this one:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u0-oinyjsk0

By Ted Fay (Catwhoeatsphoto) on Friday, November 02, 2018 - 04:04 pm: Edit

SPACE CARNAGE!!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RbOcmKCE2J8

By Dana Madsen (Dfm330) on Friday, November 02, 2018 - 04:25 pm: Edit

Not getting scared by video smack talk but on the other hand, there is nothing that wrong with fighting one round and running either. I will lose a SAV which would be sad. I would end up at range 7 to the homeworlds, but the only reserves the kzintis will have will be based out of the Marquis zone. Also, a number of his auxes will need to retrograde to the count's SB as they came here and can't get anywhere else. Depending on how he decided to retrograde the count's SB could be a viable target as I can't reach the capital.

By Ted Fay (Catwhoeatsphoto) on Friday, November 02, 2018 - 04:45 pm: Edit

Dude. Creative smack talk is half the fun!

If anything, the scenes from Sacrifice of Angels (DS9) was meant to inspire the fight!

More seriously, totally agree- Counts becomes vulnerable if you fight a round and run.

Objectively speaking, I'm honestly not THAT confident that my strategy is wise if you choose to fight. However, I think turtling up is kind of boring, and I think there's a good enough chance that the Zin will come out ahead with this strategy that it's worth a try.

Fighting a round and running *is* a safer strategy for the Lyrans. The only thing you lose is a 1 turn delay on attacking the capital - and the Klingons can't do that much damage to Kzintai on CT2 no matter what, so the delay is minimal. I'd say the bigger benefit to the Kzinti is that I can afford to put a bigger fleet there, meaning Counts SB lasts another turn.

However, "safer" is not always "better". Crippling much of the Zin navy would make life more difficult for the kitties in terms of bagging all of the outlying planets and bases in Zin space. Out of necessity, most of the uncrippled ships would have to go back to 1401, meaning you'd take more of Zin space with the Klingons.

Dunno. Personally, if I were the Lyrans in this situation, I would also think twice. Three times. Actually, four times. It's kind of hard to predict what will happen, really.

By Dana Madsen (Dfm330) on Saturday, November 03, 2018 - 01:47 pm: Edit

Both Lyran reserves (including a LAV) move to the battle hex. So we have a T1 fight in deep space where we have both brought Auxes.

Ship count

Kzinti - 68 ships, 5 auxes, 6 ind ftrs. 82 SE, 94 fighters total. 18 of the fighters are on FCR so don't count as SE.

Lyran - 76 ships, 2 auxes, 80 SE, 18 fighters total

By chris upson (Misanthropope) on Saturday, November 03, 2018 - 04:30 pm: Edit

i know this is an imposition, but id be interested in simming this if the exact roster were available to me.

im extra interested in the sequel because i'm almost certain dana is going to do something considerably different from what i would.

By Peter Bakija (Bakija) on Saturday, November 03, 2018 - 04:42 pm: Edit

Yeah, history has shown me that Dana plays very different than most folks I know, and is willing to fight and cripple and fight and cripple *way* past a point where I would consider reasonable. But he also does very well, so, well, exciting!

By Dana Madsen (Dfm330) on Saturday, November 03, 2018 - 07:01 pm: Edit

I do have a excel spreadsheet with all ships involved. I use it to track how much more damage I can take, and how much my opponent can take (assuming we are just letting damage drop).

I'll send it to your email. If anyone else is interested in the ships just shoot me an email (mine is in my profile). It takes no time to reply with the spreadsheet.

First round done. I was wrong on my talk of my line better than the Kzins. Kzin had a 138 w/ 6 EW pt line and the Lyran 127 w/ 5 EW. We each put an unescorted LAV in the form bonus for extra density and we each spent a command point. I rolled 1 higher so we had identical damage at 35 pts each. Ted dropped damaged and I killed a battle tug on the line. So I have the first 5 cripples, 3xCW, 2xDW and some fighters.

Fun times.

Again, I'm not sure how this is going to work out. I haven't played a game where the kzin and lyrans have committed themselves to something like this. Well, I guess I can kill a few interesting ships and then leave after a couple of rounds with moderate cripples and I'll have to give up a LAV and SAV. But Ted really needs to win. He can't afford to be forced to retreat to 0703 and leave me in possession of the hex with a quality fleet.

By Richard B. Eitzen (Rbeitzen) on Saturday, November 03, 2018 - 07:07 pm: Edit

Any tugs doing the rescue mission on either side?

By Dana Madsen (Dfm330) on Saturday, November 03, 2018 - 07:20 pm: Edit

Nope, I have a TGC with battle pods and a TGP with scout pods. I left a TGC at 0705 with an FRD, I could have reacted it here.

Kzintis had a battle tug, and have 2 carrier tugs and a scout tug.

By Dana Madsen (Dfm330) on Sunday, November 04, 2018 - 12:27 am: Edit

Five rounds in, dice are going my way right now. I won round 4 and 5 big, first 3 were tied or off by 1.

I've killed TGC/BP, SAD, LAV(in form), SAD and rolled a 6 in the last round so he autokilled an EFF, which was captured. Otherwise he has crippled DNL, 3xBC, CVS, CLE and killed 42 ftrs.

I have no dead ships, 20 cripples (13xCW, CL, 5xDW, SC).

Kzinti's are now out of free drone bombardment and paying for each round.

By Gregory S Flusche (Vandor) on Sunday, November 04, 2018 - 07:07 am: Edit

uhmm so they are fighting it out...

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Sunday, November 04, 2018 - 09:38 am: Edit

A very different game.

Ep wise - the Lyrans are massively ahead...

My 2p - the SAD's are far too vulnerable/expensive to replace, to be used outside 1401 (or possible a SB assault).

12 damage (after EW and Support 3:1) is nothing for the Ep damage it does

Even if the Lyrans lose the LAV and SAV.... I think they will be happy with the butchers bill?

By Dana Madsen (Dfm330) on Sunday, November 04, 2018 - 11:31 am: Edit

Well, he still has a LAD and a SAD for the homeworld assaults. My killing these 2 here meant that he has 3 or 4 less cripples which is what the 24 damage would have been. The stated strategy that I'm following has me trying to kick the Kzinti off map by T5 and stage the strongest T7 fed attack I can. So odds are all of his drone auxes die that turn anyways. I killed them here as I wanted him paying for DB, and this is likely to be a 10 to 14 turn battle before I run. If he pays for 7 rounds of DB that is a repair ship he can't afford to run as he will be at max deficit.

Yes I'm up on straight economic exchange right now. But I'm going to lose a LAV and SAV, will probably self kill them soon, might as well collect the salvage and absorb damage since they will just die in pursuit anyways. Many of my cripples will fly back into Lyran space to get fixed on T3 and 4 so some may not be in the fight again until reserve move of T5. If I was Ted I'd have probably made roughly the same choices. Yes the SAD is an expensive unit but it's purpose in life is to slow the coalition down while it dies. Keeping part of his fleet from getting crippled can help with that.

I killed his LAV in form cause killing fighters is good, but also it reduced his compot by 5 as he replaced it with a BC. Ten rounds with 5 less compot each round is 50 x 25 percent or 13 less damage to me over the course of the fight. So while I spent extra damage killing it in the form just in this fight I should recoup most of it. Not even considering long term effect of not facing this LAVs fighters again.

Similar thought went into the cheap battle tug kill. Also it's one of his 4 CR10 ships so later on there will be a time where we have 4 fights and because of this one of those fights will be led by a CC. So I'm saving myself future damage by keeping a line in front of a SB 12 points smaller.

By Peter Bakija (Bakija) on Sunday, November 04, 2018 - 11:56 am: Edit

>> will probably self kill them soon, might as well collect the salvage>>

I'm pretty sure you don't get salvage from Auxes?