Or it's a rounding error in the Coalition's favor ...

By Rob Padilla (Zargan) on Wednesday, February 05, 2020 - 09:49 am: Edit

Or my reading the wrong line of the spreadsheet!

By Rob Padilla (Zargan) on Friday, February 07, 2020 - 09:05 am: Edit

AT10 is now in the books. Ted has pretty much locked down the Hydrans (for now), the Kzinti were on the final turn of rebuilding their Shipyard and out of position, and the Federation simply has too many threats to deal with to get super aggressive.

Which boiled down to the destruction of Klingon BATS 1811, the recapture of Minor planets 3612, 2610, 1802, 1504 and 519. Three Alliance ships were destroyed (EFF, FKE, and CL). 8 Coalition ships were destroyed (CW, FF, K4, D5, F5G, F5, 2xE4).

Hydrans continue to hunker down on 617, with FF squadrons scatters across their backfield. A large FF squadron is currently disrupting province 413, and is within range of two strong Hydran reserves established on the OC.

The Kzinti used this turn to liberate some supply points and then to re-group. Almost all of the Kzinti navy retrograded Offmap, leaving planets 1802, 1504 and 1506 totally undefended. No Kzinti reserves are set in the ZTO.

The Federation after attacking several province raider groups and destroying BATS 1811 retrograded to defend their back positions, centered around BATS 2609 and 3209/3210. The 3rd SB has 49 SE defending it, and the 6th SB has 44 SE. The Federation currently holds Klingon minor planet 1910, though I am sure that will not last. 4 full Federation reserves are set that can cover pretty much everything, and both Kzinti reserves are also set in the FTO, being filled out with the help of Federation units. The Kzinti reserves are composed of 12 homeless Kzinti and some Feds. Two reserves (26 SE) can bolster the 3rd SB if needed, and 3 reserves (42 SE) can bolster the 6th SB if needed. Not the same reserves.

Let's see what the COalition has up their sleeves for Turn 11!

By Ted Fay (Catwhoeatsphoto) on Friday, February 07, 2020 - 12:41 pm: Edit

CT11 begins. My Eco is here, if you want to see.

Klingon: https://www.dropbox.com/s/f7nrndv6ia0mc6o/Coalition_Klingon.xlsx?dl=0

Lyran: https://www.dropbox.com/s/htp330y62yd2c8f/Coalition_Lyran.xlsx?dl=0

Romulan: https://www.dropbox.com/s/htp330y62yd2c8f/Coalition_Lyran.xlsx?dl=0

The Map (You will need Cyberboard to load this game file): https://www.dropbox.com/s/rtj1kgdofnim8d3/Raiders_Lost_Dilithium_3.gam?dl=0


Highlights:

Klingon B10 Invincible arrives ahead of schedule. However, B10 Inexorable appears to be living up to her name, rolling 3 1's, a 3, and a 2 for her first five rolls!

Roms build a DMCB

Repairs are very light this turn, on account of second turn in a row of light combat (this was deliberate). However, CT11 is going to see A LOT of POW-POW!

Klingons and Lyrans both do massive debt pay-downs (38 and 18 respectively) in order to avoid another half turn of economic exhaustion - they rode the edge but did not go down that dark path.

Roms build 3*PGB and plop them down on the capital.

Otherwise, full builds for everyone, though light on the conversion side to save EPs.

Raids/Operational to follow later.

By Ted Fay (Catwhoeatsphoto) on Friday, February 07, 2020 - 12:42 pm: Edit

The B10 Invincible is B10AA with 4 fighters, BTW.

So far, Roms have avoided ADS.

By Richard Eitzen (Rbeitzen) on Friday, February 07, 2020 - 05:52 pm: Edit

Scary!

By Ted Fay (Catwhoeatsphoto) on Tuesday, February 11, 2020 - 11:09 am: Edit

This turn the Coalition (all three empires) decided to attack the Tholian Holdfast and reduce it to dust.

All that will be left of the Tholians is a rag-tag fugitive fleet. Unless, of course, Rob decides to fight all ships to the death.

In the HTO I'll be pinning 617, devastating some outer planets, and attacking a planet or two. Nothing exciting.

The Kzinti have no presence on-map. So, I'm taking everything and moving most of my ships to SB1202 to prepare for the counter-attacking coming on AT11. The Zin have 128 SEQ offmap, and no doubt next turn they will build 15 or so more SEQ as their new shipyard came online AT10.

The FTO will see very little action this turn. Mostly I'm sending in a few pickets, and that's it. And kicking the Feds off of 1910.

There are SIX reserves in the FTO (Rob used homeless ships and two Kzinti reserves to make this happen). I'm committed to attacking the Tholians (some 250 SEQ), and that means I'm not attacking the Feds!

Operational still proceeding.

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Tuesday, February 11, 2020 - 01:41 pm: Edit

It will be interesting to watch this very different game. The Fed offensive is delayed, and the Feds get to build up some more. BUT the Klingons get their colonies back, and the Coalition won't have to deal with the Tholians on turn 22. Interesting trade off!

By Rob Padilla (Zargan) on Tuesday, February 11, 2020 - 01:43 pm: Edit

Man, somebody REALLY doesn't like the rock guys!

Geez!

By Ted Fay (Catwhoeatsphoto) on Tuesday, February 11, 2020 - 02:20 pm: Edit

"The only good Tholian is a dead Tholian."

By Ted Fay (Catwhoeatsphoto) on Tuesday, February 11, 2020 - 02:24 pm: Edit

Truth be told, I'm behind this game. The Fed is building up with very little damage. While I have a plan to achieve victory, I have never tried it before and I give it maybe a 25% chance of working.

I made two errors, both involving changing plans mid-stream (I was Hydran first, then took advantage of Zin first, when I wasn't setup for it properly when dice and Rob's choices gave me an opportunity).

Unless you're Paul Scott playing SFB tourney.... =)

Rob also has played the Alliance very well, taking advantage of every small opening I have given him.

While the Coalition has taken no major damage yet, how many games can the Federation have taken advantage of 1910 to place a force capable of threatening Klinshai ON TURN 10????

He didn't do it, in favor of protecting the mother land, but he *could* have done it. I would have stopped it, but still. It's been a LONG time since I've done so poorly as Coalition.

I'm not saying I'm going to lose and I'm not giving up besides... but still I'm not liking my chances on this one.

No worries, though. I've done VERY well in my last few Coalition games. You can't win every time.

By Ted Fay (Catwhoeatsphoto) on Thursday, February 13, 2020 - 11:33 am: Edit

On CT11 the Coalition dumps about 190 units onto Tholia proper, probably more than half of them cruiser or above.

There are also undefeatable (locally speaking) base-busting forces on all outer Tholian bases.

In all, about 250 units are involved in operation "Tholian Final Solution."

Tholians who surrender will be absorbed into the Klingon Empire and given all the benefits of an honorable subject race.

Tholians who resist will be offered a choice of death: Death by disrupter, death by expanding sphere generator, death by plasma, death by phaser, death by drone, death by suicide shuttle, death by vacuum exposure, death by...

By Alan Trevor (Thyrm) on Thursday, February 13, 2020 - 02:41 pm: Edit

Death to the Coalition Invaders Profaning our Sacred Holdfast!

Actually, as someone who plays the Tholians in SFB (and has played out several assaults on wedding cakes (usually as Tholians but once as Klingons)), I don't believe F&E adequately encapsulates the difficulty of assaulting a prepared Tholian defense in SFB. Not that the Tholians could resist the entire Coaltion, of course. But the attackers would lose far more ships playing out the battles in SFB than they do in F&E.

In what I believe the lawyers call a "declaration against interest" (Ted, IIRC you're a lawyer - correct?) I have argued that the BPV cost for buying a pre-exising web in patrol scenarios is actually too low. The problem (or one of the problems, at any rate) is that as time goes on the cost to maintain or reinforce web decreases, so the defending Tholians have more power to spend on weapons, shields, EW, etc. Given exactly the same forces, a Tholian wedding cake defense post-Y160 is notably stronger than the same defense pre-Y160. But the BPV cost to buy web doesn't increase to account for this.

But I guess that really belongs in the SFB topic rather than F&E... Sorry to interrupt... carry on.

By Ted Fay (Catwhoeatsphoto) on Thursday, February 13, 2020 - 03:17 pm: Edit

I would agree with you Alan, but ultimately F&E *is* a different game than SFB...

By Alan Trevor (Thyrm) on Thursday, February 13, 2020 - 03:30 pm: Edit

True enough. And the rules of each game have to be written so that game will work, even if they're not completely in accord with the other game.

Over all, I think that they correspond impressively well and could never correspond perfectly. The scales are just too different.

By Ted Fay (Catwhoeatsphoto) on Wednesday, February 19, 2020 - 10:06 pm: Edit

The assault of the Holdfast is over. They very much gave better than they took, but nonetheless the Holdfast is now in Klingon hands.

Brief commentary: This time I took a 63.67 SEQ loss in outright kills. Part of this was because Rob got several "6's" early on, including the very first round when his compot was highest. Part of it is also because of the way Pinwheels have been ruled to work back in 2011 (which I admittedly forgot to apply the ruling the last time I assaulted the Holdfast). The last time I tried this (against Bill) I lost 45 SEQ or so. So, between dice and SUBSTANTIALLY enhanced damage absorption through pinwheels (plus the EW rule), I effectively lost almost *TWENTY* more SEQ that I did last time.

Now that I fully understand the Web procedures with all rules changes and rulings, my conclusion is that they are just too tough. It is not worth it.

A 63 SEQ loss is absolutely brutal to the Coalition, and probably a game changer in the Alliances' favor regardless of the economic benefit I get and the easier Klingon/Romulan connection.

I'll post the tale of the tape later, but my assessment is that this is a Pyrrhic victory...

By Rob Padilla (Zargan) on Thursday, February 20, 2020 - 10:45 am: Edit

A LOT went wrong for Ted in the Battle for Tholia.

He brought 7 SAFs. 7! Which should have been a good number to bring, those a few more would have helped maybe. Out of those 7, I think only 3 scored any damage. The first one took 2 PDUs, the next 3 did NOTHING, the 5th took 2 PDUs but only because I didn't disrupt it, and the last two maybe got one more PDU, I'd have to go back and look. So over 7 ROUNDS of SAF assault, I lost 5 PDUs, two of which were because I bagged a C8 on the line instead of disrupting it. 5! At a minimum that should have been 8.

And yes the Tholian combat die had only 5's and 6's on it for a LOT of the fight. I rolled 3 6's in a row, and opened the fight with a 6. It went 13 rounds with the fleet, so right there I had over 30% of my rolls at MAX damage. I think I had one or two more, as well as some 5's. On top of that Ted rolled like a dumpster fire that had just been dropped in a deep fryer. In other words very bad. He only had one or two 1's, but he rolled a whole lot of 2's and 3's while I was rolling 5's and 6's.

I'm working on a breakdown of the Tholian damage per round with the Pinwheels just to see how effective they really were. And honestly I think I used them poorly to begin with, so they could have been better.

By Ted Fay (Catwhoeatsphoto) on Thursday, February 20, 2020 - 11:00 am: Edit

---

Quote:

On top of that Ted rolled like a dumpster fire that had just been dropped in a deep fryer.

---

By Richard Eitzen (Rbeitzen) on Thursday, February 20, 2020 - 11:08 am: Edit

'should' have been 8'

Thats not how random numbers work. :p

By Ted Fay (Catwhoeatsphoto) on Thursday, February 20, 2020 - 11:34 am: Edit

Tale of the Tape for Assault of the Holdfast. This damage was higher by 14 SEQ than any other Holdfast assault I've attempted (and this is my 4th rodeo). Some of that extra damage was the severe dice difference, but some was also the rules changes regarding using scouts to pull cripples from the Web and still provide EW (they can't now) and also that Pinwheels can self-take damage at the 50% defpot bonus. I do not care to say exactly how much difference each factor made. I will discuss analysis in much more detail later in a new topic on the Holdfast I will start in the next few days. The topic will NOT argue for any rule changes - just a presentation of real playtest data since so few Coalition players attack the Holdfast so that SVC can decide whether he likes the Tholian rules where they are at currently.

Anyway, here are the losses. And they are BRUTAL.

Everything is self-killed, except for the C8, KC9, and SUP, which Rob directed. On the Tholian side I direct killed the AWTs and two monitors, but that's it. Maulers were used to direct *cripple* 2*DN and CC, and to kill fighters; but I tried to preserve as much damage as possible to actually fall on the Holdfast.

Klingon KIA: C8, D7C, 2*D6M, 14*D5, 4*F5L, 13*F5, AD5, F5E, 2*D6S, 4*SAF. 39 SEQ.

Klingon WIA: C8, 2*D6M, 2*D7, D5

Lyran KIA: 4*CW, 3*DW, 3*SAF. 7 SEQ

Lyran WIA: STL, DN, STT, TGC

Romulan KIA: KC9, SUP, FHP, 2*FAL, KRC, 3*SP, K5L, 3*SK, 2*SNB, BHE. 16.67 SEQ.

Romulan WIA: CON, SUP, KE, 2*KRM, FH, WE, SPB.

Tholian KIA: SB, 16*PDU, 8*DD, 12*PC, 3*BW, PCE, 2*SC, 2*CMC, 3*CPC, 2*SAS, FHL, 2*F5S, SAV, 2*MON, 2*AWT, MB.

Tholian WIA: 2*DN, CC

Remaining Tholian Navy: DP, 2*[DN], [CC], 4*CA, 4*PCE, PTR, APT. That's everything they have left.

*ALL* Tholian supply points were destroyed this turn.

Additional Coalition losses from assaulting other Tholian positions:

KIA (8 more SEQ):
-Klingon: D5, F5, AD5,
-Lyran: DN, CW,
-Romulan 2*WE, BH .

WIA:
-Klingon: D7, 4*D5, 2*F5, FV, D6V, E4A,
-Lyran: None
-Romulan: WE, BH, K4, SN, VLV, SKB, WH, SKE, BHE, SPG, SKH

Total SEQ loss from destroying the Holdfast: 70.67 SEQ KIA.

For perspective, that's about equal to the initial Klingon Southern Reserve and Western Fleet *combined*.

As indicated above... Probably a Pyrrhic victory!

By Ted Fay (Catwhoeatsphoto) on Thursday, February 20, 2020 - 12:00 pm: Edit

Salvage Generated:

Klingon: 60.9

Lyran: 8.0

Romulan: 28.375


Klingon Drone Bombardment Spent: 13 rounds at 1.2 EP a pop: 15.6 EPs (increasing national debt by 16 to 108 due to the sequence of play). Obviously a large bonus of that will pay down the debt on CT12.

[EDIT] Total Salvage: 97.275

By Richard Eitzen (Rbeitzen) on Thursday, February 20, 2020 - 12:04 pm: Edit

Ow.

By Ted Fay (Catwhoeatsphoto) on Thursday, February 20, 2020 - 12:12 pm: Edit

I'm convinced that the Tholian rule changes (pinwheels, scouts) have made assaulting the Holdfast an unviable winning strategy. I highly doubt I will do this again, at least not with the current rules rubric - or at least not unless I'm deliberately trying to give the Alliance player a break.

By Rob Padilla (Zargan) on Thursday, February 20, 2020 - 01:59 pm: Edit

Richard, 7 SAFs on average should have scored about 8 hits. And remember one was NOT disrupted, so was guaranteed to get at least 2. That one only got 2. If we assume the 7th was the non-disrupted one, then the results should have been (on average):
2 clean misses (0 hits)
2 average hits (2 hits)
2 good hit (4 hits)
And the non-disrupted one hits at least 2 no matter what.

That's 8. Ted got 5. Basically one good hit, one normal hit and a bad hit with the non-disrupted one. That's fairly atrocious right there.

I did some number crunching, and it looks like at first blush the Pinwheel rules cost the Coalition about 7 ship kills and 4 cripples. Meaning he'd have lost 7 less ships and had 4 less crippled. But 63.67 SE losses is still really really bad. And I think a big part of that was the inability of the SAFs to score any real damage after the 1st round. The Tholians had 14 PDUs and the SB for 4 rounds after that. That was 174 Compot that was not getting reduced in any way, while I took damage on the fleet. Any way you slice it, that's going to hurt LOTS.

By Ted Fay (Catwhoeatsphoto) on Thursday, February 20, 2020 - 02:40 pm: Edit

The low Coalition dice was also very telling, because that means 1/4 to 1/2 extra combat round for every low roll I made.

My estimate for PW extra kills is close to Rob's, but slightly higher: 9 kills, 6 cripples, but that is based on the fact that an extra three rounds had to be fought in the middle of the battle.

But we're pretty close. PW is significant, but not dominant.

Robert dug into the weeds with the data, whereas I just did a gut-check kind of analysis. Robert's data probably closer to ground truth.