'should' and 'did' aren't even cousins.

By Rob Padilla (Zargan) on Thursday, February 20, 2020 - 03:55 pm: Edit

No they're not, but if you roll enough D6s, we all know the average is about 3.5 overall. Teds was like 1.5, which is horribly below average.

Granted 7 rolls is too small of a sample size, but still that's just really bad luck. If only there was a way to even out the dice....

By Richard Eitzen (Rbeitzen) on Thursday, February 20, 2020 - 05:22 pm: Edit

We also know that 8 die rolls are not enough to give you a near guarantee of an average result. That's why there is no 'should'.

It's not bad luck to not get exactly 8 casualties from those SAFS. It's more likely not to be 8 than it is to be 8.

***

When planning, it helps to be aware of these things before you go in, so that you can have a plan on what to do regardless of the die rolls. If some of those plans are really not something you want to do, you must weigh the possible negatives against the possible positives and decide. At least then, though, you know what you are getting into before you roll the dice.

This is important as it can help you keep your morale up by avoiding situations that you find near intolerable by not risking those things to happen, if that's what it takes to maintain enjoyment of the game.

:-)

By Stewart Frazier (Frazikar3) on Thursday, February 20, 2020 - 06:07 pm: Edit

To me, this was a 'burn the fleet' moment (We're taking this hex NOW!) …

By Rob Padilla (Zargan) on Thursday, February 20, 2020 - 07:29 pm: Edit

Richard,

Every disrupted SAF has a 67% chance to kill something. Ted's hit only 33%. If that is not bad luck, I don't know what is!

By Richard Eitzen (Rbeitzen) on Thursday, February 20, 2020 - 07:43 pm: Edit

Moving the goal posts there; my argument for this whole series of statements from me essentially boils down to my perception that one player spoke as if you can count on a specific random result, and I said you can't.

By Rob Padilla (Zargan) on Friday, February 21, 2020 - 08:28 am: Edit

Ah, I think you were misinterpreting my point. Ted never said those things, that was just my opinion on how the SAF could have been expected to perform.

That was my bias, not Ted's. I was just trying to illustrate how poorly the SAFs performed.

By Ted Fay (Catwhoeatsphoto) on Friday, February 21, 2020 - 10:52 am: Edit

Kind of like my maulers. They're supposed to shock 1/3 of the time, I shock them about 2/3 of the time.

It's just a weird fact.

Naturally when I analyze my dice distribution *as a whole* it is totally random. However, for some odd reason I've seen that pattern emerge for me.

On the other hand, Humans are built for pattern recognition, though sometimes they see patterns that are not there due to limited information, bias, etc.

All I know is that, for the last few years, when I roll for shock, about 2/3 of the time I roll a "5" or "6" on 1D6, regardless of what the laws of probability say is supposed to happen!

By Richard Eitzen (Rbeitzen) on Friday, February 21, 2020 - 11:33 am: Edit

Tes Rob, you misunderstood. I was addressing your comment, not Ted's. Good that is all cleared up.

By Ted Fay (Catwhoeatsphoto) on Friday, February 21, 2020 - 01:59 pm: Edit

CT11 is over.

The major event here was the conquest of the Holdfast at TERRIBLE expense. Analyzed to death, above.

Retro was primarily to SBs/repair poitns, and to 2916 (MB), 2715 (Klingons and Lyrans) and 3415 (Romulan).


All good reserves but for one weaker Klingon reserve lead by a D6J(!)

The B10 strong reserve is at 2715.

Klingon reserves at 2517, 1714, and (the weak one) at 1509.

Lyran reserves at 816, and two more at 1202.

Two released Rom reserves at 4015 and 3912.

KR parts transferred.

Time to bring on A11.

By Rob Padilla (Zargan) on Tuesday, February 25, 2020 - 03:45 pm: Edit

AT11 Econ Phase:

Kzinti Econ:
Starting EPs: 76.65
Income Generated: 34 and 6 FFF
Total: 110.65

Ship Builds: 61 EP (TGC, BC, 3xMEC, DWE, FFK, FKE, 6xFF)
Repairs: 0 EP
Other Production: 0 EP (PT,POL)
Conversions: 16 EP and 6 FFF
DN to CVA

Remaining EPs: 33.65 and 0 FFF

Hydran Econ:
Starting EPs: 3
Income Generated: 52
Total: 55

Ship Builds: 51 EP and 3 FFF (LB, DG, 3xTR, LN, DWE, 4xCU)
Repairs: 0 EP
Other Production: 3 EP (PT,POL, CW SY (ENG), PGB)
Conversions: 0 EP

Remaining EPs: 1 and 3 FFF

Federation Econ:
Starting EPs: 3
Income Generated: 194
Total: 197

Ship Builds: 119 EP and 0 FFF (DN+, LTT, NCT, 10xNCL, 15xFF)
Ship Activations: 7 EP (CS, 3xCL, 3xFF)
Repairs: 10 EP (3xNCL, CA, CL, FF, FFE)
Other Production: 27 EP (2xPOL, 2xPT, 2xSWAC. 2xFF SY (Offmap w/ENG), 4 Colonies, 2xPDU, LBP)
Conversions: 34 EP
CA to CC (CDR)
2xNCL to NCD (CDR)
CL to LSC
BATS to SB(6) - 2609

Remaining EPs: 0 and 0 FFF

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Tuesday, February 25, 2020 - 04:31 pm: Edit

The relevant question I think is (especially with the end of game discussions going on) is

"What could stop the Tholians dying in 1 turn"?

and I think there is only 1 answer

Do not assault them.

Every other option is 'send enough stuff to do the job and the dice will dictate if the initial cost is worth it'.

Personally, I would like there be an option for them to be assaulted and 'live' (i.e. keep the homeworld).

So in this game - what can the Alliance do while the Coalition are temporarily weaker (all the salvage could overbuild a stack of F5's.....)

By Rob Padilla (Zargan) on Tuesday, February 25, 2020 - 07:13 pm: Edit

All that salvage is going to pay down his debt, or in a few turns he'll be reaping the whirlwind of debt!

By Ted Fay (Catwhoeatsphoto) on Wednesday, February 26, 2020 - 09:47 am: Edit

What Rob said.

Current Coalition National Debts:

-Klingon: 108
-Lyran: 77
-Romulan: 0 (The Romulans have not started ADS)

Current Cash on Hand:
-Klingon: 61.125
-Lyran: 9.41
-Romulan: 27.15

So, even if I used all of my spare cash to pay down debts, I'd still have 46.875 EPs in Klingon debt and 67.59 EPs in Lyran debt.

Given that economic exhaustion will hit on turn 16, that gives me just 4 turns to pay off my debt before the 25% eco hit takes effect. If the debt is not paid off by then (or substantially paid off) then I'll be completely screwed for the rest of the war.

To be clear, I've gotten in this much debt (and more) many times and still either won the game or was in a position to win before the game was abandoned for whatever reason. So, the debt by itself is not an indicator of my position in *this* game.

That being said, my showing in this game has been quite lackluster (I'd even use the word "poor") for reasons I've already discussed in prior posts, and so I expect the game to go a long time. As a result, I need to pay down the debt before I get hammered with 75% and then 50% eco exhaustion PLUS interest payments and additional exhaustion.

All that is a long-winded way of saying I agree with Rob!

By Rob Padilla (Zargan) on Saturday, February 29, 2020 - 12:14 pm: Edit

AT11 AAR:

HTO:
The Hydrans attacked three Coalition positions, as well as BATS 1013. The lone Coalition reserve in the area saved 1013.
The Coalition lost a POL and 2 small ships. The Hydrans lost 3 HNs. Hydrans setup two reserves in the OC, neither are fully outfitted. Most Hydran ships are at 617, except for a small squadron in province 114 and a small but powerful fleet on minor planet 519. There are 5 other sets of FF squadrons scattered in the Hydran backfield.

ZTO:
The Kzinti come back onto the map in force, liberating everything east of 1401. The two Coalition reserves went to minor 1802, thinking the lack of Kzinti fighter depth would let them grind down the Kzinti navy a bit. It did not go as planned. The Kzinti captured 3 FFs this turn, and lost a CC and FKE. The Coalition lost 3 FF and a CC in pursuit and took 4 or 5 cripples. One Kzinti reserve was setup in the Barony, the other is in Federation space.

FTO:
The Federation was facing a new threat in the form of the Klingon B10 Battleship. No one in the Admiralty knew how effective it would be. Turns out after a few weeks of battle over minor 2715, it was decided a new strategy is needed to deal with threat and the assault to recapture 2715 was aborted. Romulan BATS 3715 was destroyed but the cost for it was high. In order to limit Romulan reserve actions, part of the 6th Fleet was detached to pin a reserve at SB 4015. 2 CLs and 3 ships were crippled in this action, the Romulans lost a SK and had 3 ships crippled. Another 2 CC were lost over the BATS and one K5 was also destroyed. A NCL was crippled along with 4 Romulan ships. Several province raiders were attacked but the cloaking device saved them all. 4 Fed reserves setup in the inner SB ring and the surrounding BATS and planets to cover the 3rd and 6th SBs with at least 2 reserves each, or that can overlap and cover everything on the interior.
Oh and most of the remaining Tholian fleet is gone now too. But to be fair I didn't try that hard to save them. Not that I had many options for doing so in any case.

By Richard Eitzen (Rbeitzen) on Saturday, February 29, 2020 - 12:32 pm: Edit

It is nice to save some Tholians, if nothing else they come with a reserve marker.

By Rob Padilla (Zargan) on Saturday, February 29, 2020 - 09:53 pm: Edit

Yeah. Hard to save them when you have no other ships within range to help them survive. I got two out because I used a FXP to supply them so they could retrograde after the massacre. I think I can save 2 to 3 more tops, but it depends mostly on Ted's bad luck at the right time. I couldn't safely position a reserve close enough to matter and not have it get pinned.

By Ted Fay (Catwhoeatsphoto) on Thursday, March 05, 2020 - 12:51 pm: Edit

CT12 is under way.

Nothing truly special about my eco, except that I start making serious inroads into paying back Klingon debt and some progress on Lyan debt.

Klingons build a C8V and a whole BUNCH of escorts - playing catchup with decent escorts using the bolus of cash.

Lyrans upgrade BS->BATS (no ftr) at 1013 using a COE. No biggie. Just need something useful to do with the COE. They also build a couple of KVH pods.

Roms build 4 PGB at the capital.

If you want eco details, see my actual eco forms:

Klingon eco: https://www.dropbox.com/s/f7nrndv6ia0mc6o/Coalition_Klingon.xlsx?dl=0

Lyran eco: https://www.dropbox.com/s/htp330y62yd2c8f/Coalition_Lyran.xlsx?dl=0

Rom eco: https://www.dropbox.com/s/gydtf9m2wtma0lc/Coalition_Romulan.xlsx?dl=0


Raids blow up some 2 POLs and an upstart HN and disrupt a bunch of provinces. The only significant strategic value here was killing HN, which will allow me to re-claim a bunch of NZ hexes I lost to upstart Hydrans last turn.

Operational now under way.

HTO: Pinned the capital; will be doing some picket stomping/ planet taking. Yay.

ZTO: Moving to pin onmap Zin units; will be taking back probably 2 planets, but extremely powerful reserve makes taking back all 3 impossible or unlikely.

Western FTO: Pinned SB 2211. Moves still pending.

Eastern FTO: Pinned BATS 3212 with Klingon task force (10 Coalition to 6 Fed). Sent 6 ships to 3612 despite 48 Feds remaining at SB 3611. We'll see if he reacts. Lots of moves pending.

Current map (requires you have both Cyberboard and the latest game box in order to download and load): https://www.dropbox.com/s/tl7l0sw03ucy72w/Raiders_Lost_Dilithium_4.gam?dl=0

By Ted Fay (Catwhoeatsphoto) on Wednesday, May 06, 2020 - 03:57 pm: Edit

This game is being revived after a hiatus caused by my RL issues. We are at the end of CT 12 (I need to do retro, etc.).

This turn I blew up Fed SB 2211 with the B10AA in the lead. Most of everything else was playing footsie with the Alliance, though I did blow up a few more Fed BATS. Still recovering/repositioning from earlier Tholian assault - but that is mostly done now.

I have produced some game metrics, if you're interested.

	Total SEQ Loss as of CT12 End
Klingon	166
Lyran	50
Romulan	29.0867
Net Losses:	245.0867
Federation	57
Kzinti	55
Hydran	68.8333
Gorn	0
Tholian	48
Net Losses:	228.8333
Coalition-Alliance Losses:			16.2534
Coalition-Alliance Losses, less Tholians:
			64.2534

Total SEQ as of CT12 End
Klingon	524.833
Lyran	260
Romulan	241.083667
Total SEQ	1025.916667
Federation	314.5
Kzinti	162
Hydran	180.333
Gorn	109
Tholian	4
Total SEQ	769.833
Coalition-Alliance Pincount:			256.08366

Rough production (at full):
Klingon	31
Lyran	18.5
Romulan	14
Total:	63.5
Federation	33.5
Kzinti	15
Hydran	14
Gorn	11.5
Tholian	0
Total:	74
Coalition-Alliance Production:			-10.5

Klingon	192.1
Lyran	153.3
Romulan	127
Total:	472.4
Federation	194
Kzinti	34
Hydran	52
Gorn	90
Tholian	0
Total:	370
Coalition-Alliance Economy:			102.4

By Richard Eitzen (Rbeitzen) on Wednesday, May 06, 2020 - 04:29 pm: Edit

How close is your second B10 to finished and will it become a B10AA?

By Ted Fay (Catwhoeatsphoto) on Wednesday, May 06, 2020 - 05:43 pm: Edit

Well, I can answer the second question definitively: It will be a B10AA. Two of those bad boys on the line is just plain scary.

The first question has an easy answer and a hard answer. The easy answer is I have 12 points towards the 40 needed.

Theoretically, gaining 28 points at the rate of 3.5 points per turn (rolling average) will take about 8 turns (turn 20) on average.

However, the Inexorable has been living up to its name - slow but moving forward. I started the second B10 on turn 7 (earliest possible); however, the rolls on the second B10 have been: 1, 1, 1, 2,
2, and 5 to get to my 12 (average would have been 21, not 12).

Mind you, I'm not *complaining* about the dice, merely notating them with interest. The first B10 Invincible came out fairly fast: On CT11 (started CT3 at earliest time). That's an average die roll of 4.4 over the course of it's build - vice the average dice roll of 2 for the Inexorable so far.

It remains to be seen whether the fairly substantial variance will even out for the Inexorable. Likely, it will.

YMMV

By Richard Eitzen (Rbeitzen) on Wednesday, May 06, 2020 - 06:44 pm: Edit

Maybe Inexorable should be renamed Interminable.

By Douglas Lampert (Dlampert) on Wednesday, May 06, 2020 - 07:11 pm: Edit

Of course, if the Klingons are ever short on money by enough to skip a DN build, they can buy an extra B10 roll instead.

By Ted Fay (Catwhoeatsphoto) on Thursday, May 07, 2020 - 10:51 am: Edit

@Richard: LOL, yeah, really.

@Douglas: Only if I'm desperate. I've done that before, but Rob has made a point of targeting C8s whenever possible, including even when they are in form (say, during capital assaults). I only have a few of them, so I'm going to have to continue to build them whenever I can.

-T

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Thursday, May 07, 2020 - 01:40 pm: Edit

So what did the B10AA do?

Did the Federation ever get close enough to kill it?

A SB even with a couple of frozen ships should get to 30 damage....

(Other than having a bolt load of owed points AND a Penal ship, no doubt spoiling the fun....).

Haven't used SFG's for a while, but they seem to be very very powerful and 2 B10AA's probably are unbeatable?