Archive through February 18, 2021
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Archive through February 18, 2021
The Kzinti managed to kill the FRD and the Hydrans also managed to bag a Klingon FRD. Overall, a pretty good turn.
Because I'm keeping track of everything (just about - I still need to start tracking the total number of ship-based fighters so that I'm accurately tracking pincount), here's an update on what dice luck looks like.
First, some methodology. I set 1 extra damage = 0.25EP as a baseline. Then I could assign a "owed damage" value for each round of combat. There's an adjustment for BIR - a 6/1 split is much more impactful at BIR 1 than at BIR 9. Similarly, how well you roll is more important if you have a negative shift. For example, if a 100/0 force rolls a 2 against a 90/2 force who rolls a 5, the net is a score of 8.3. Also, it's scaled based on the total compot of the two forces, as high compot battles are usually more important.
It's a little arbitrary, but it should give a reasonable approximation of whether one side is consistently getting lucky. For convenience, I have Alliance luck positive and Coalition negative.
Net at the end of A4: +0.81
I don't have capture in my spreadsheet yet either, so with a D6M and a CW captured, it should be higher (maybe significantly). But even with that, it's a pretty even game luck-wise.
Shock has been Alliance-favoured (+20); survey has been Coalition-favoured (-16). Combat has been pretty even, though C1 and C2 were +15 each, and C3 was -26. So far this game, the Alliance has built 47 ships and lost 37 (and captured 2). The Coalition has built or activated 166 and lost 70.
I'm not sure what my end-goal is with this, but I'm having fun with having lots of data.
I think there are a lot of currently crippled Coalition ships, way more than the alliance.
A lot of those lost alliance ships were Hydran, who've lost three cruisers, four or five destroyers and like 10? frigates, something like that. A3 went badly for them in their drive up the Lyran/Klingon neutral zone and they lost five ships in the expedition before returning it to Hydran space. The expedition did manage to kill a Klingon BATS (1415) and FRD on the way back though (and BATS 1013 got killed on A3 and 1214 on C4).
The Hydrans are currently all back in Hydran space and will probably not get hurt much on C5, but seeing as how most of the ships stopping the expedition just went to the Hydran border on C6, I expect things to heat up in Hydran space at that point.
Even with the losses I think this has to be going fine for the Alliance. The Feds can just stick over their starbases and planets, and with all the FRD losses the Coalition will have to slow down or else run out of working ships.
Oh, yes, the Alliance is definitely in good shape. The Kzinti can choose not to lose their capital this turn, no matter how many cripples the Coalition take (It's 111+5=116 Coalition SE against 81+20=101 Kzinti SE, 6PDU and SB). The Hydran capital will likely remain untouched this turn.
Alliance ship losses are better seen as spent, with the return in tempo rather than enemy dead.
After repairs, the Lyrans have about 9EP of cripples; the Klingons have about 30EP of cripples. In comparison, the Kzinti have 19EP of cripples.
Sam
Shoot me - does your calculation take into account 'luck'?
i.e. 100 Compot at X Bir and Roll of 1.... kills an Escort.... and 100 Compot at the same BIR and roll of 6 kills an Escort and 18 Fighters....
But 80 Compot rolling a 6, kills a CA..... (when a 5 or less only gets an Escort)?
It's near impossible to account for that; I'd have to record which ships are available to be directed, how many minus points were carried over, which ships are desirable to be targetted, etc. In some cases, I'd have to know more (Is this his last mauler, so 28 is a significant breakpoint? Is this his last CR10 ship, so 36 and 54 are significant breakpoints? Is killing the 18 fighters significant to the overall battle, or is it a one-round thing?)
I figured that was a little too much for a spreadsheet to handle.
The trickiest thing so far is figuring how much pursuit is worth. Right now, I'm basing it off of how much EP advantage the average pursuit gains per point of compot in the pursuit force (~0.016 EP/point, right now). That means that escaping a 70 point Hydran force was worth -14.71. That'll get more accurate as I get more data.
The grand coalition was in crisis...
Emperor Saber-Tooth, newly arrived to a survey of new Lyran holdings at Zamyan, had suddenly dropped dead during a military review. Despite some of the best healers in the Star Empire being present (and a skilled Klingon physician), he could not be revived. He was by no means elderly, and his sudden death came as a shock to everyone.
Hastily, the Witan was called, but this turned out to be a different meeting than was historically the case for Lyran royalty. Besides occurring in the middle of a regional galactic war, this Witan was notable for its lack of Ducal presence. One-Eye was off to war in Kzintai, himself wounded, and preoccupied with the ongoing siege and defense of newly-won Lyran territory in Kzinti space. Grey-ears was present, but barely - now nearly white rather than gray, the old man appeared hollow and ghostly; consumed with the stress of what he had created with the Hydran war. His 2 sons were absent; they prayed at the old temples for forgiveness of their father's sins with the priests whom they usually held company. While they displayed their obvious distaste for war, the ambitious young military counsel of Enemy's Blood duchy, "Bloody Claws" (whom most regard as having *really* brokered the deal with the Klingons over Hydran aggression) was trying to salvage his strategic plan from border BATS #0413.
The leader of Foremost Duchy, (now the crown prince Saber-Tooth II), was also quiet, sullen, despondent. Normally Foremost had dominated these councils (at least in recent history), but Saber-Tooth the younger barely spoke. Clearly, he was still bearing the physical and psychological wounds of his loss and near-death in the Kzinti offensive, not to mention the recent loss of his father. Many in the Ducal court at Skagmark were worried, (particularly his mother), about his sanity, and/or ability to lead. When Saber-Tooth finally spoke, it was to abandon his claim on the Throne of Lyrantan, abdicating for what was the first time in recent memory.
This left Deerstalker, the Duke of Far-Stars Duchy, as the only real lord of rank at the meeting. A quietly rational, scientific, and stoic leader (who had years to reflect on his involvement of the War of Kinfolk Slaughter that had preceded the 4-powers war, and its resulting handicap of Lyran national defenses as a result), was pragmatic in his approach. Rather than pick one of Saber-Tooth the Elder's other son, barely older than a cub, (which would have put the Empire in a position of weakness), he used his incidentally near-complete authority at this Witan to nominate the Emperor's Daughter. "The Black Tigress," whom had shown herself a capable warrior and already proven in this war, had despite her gender held high esteem among the Lyran people.
The seated county Aldermen (several of them also missing from military engagements) initially argued, bringing up old feuds and factional ambitions. But Deerstalker was firm and direct, put and end to this nonsense, and eventually they acquiesced. The Star Empire had a new Empress.
The Tigress wasted no time in organizing the loose ends her father had left, and quickly put about enacting her own reforms. The Empire was to focus their development efforts on carriers, the lack of which on the battlefield she found to be an embarassment. To their strengths, she wanted to focus on continued development of their electronic-warfare platforms, particulary an updated version of the CLS, which had already served well in this war but was clunky and expensive. Lyran ship designers, still riding the high of their mauler design, were happy to oblige and began work almost immediately on new carrier designs. To save time, the Empress directed that only ship designs be produced; the fighters themselves she hoped she could continue to source from their Klingon allies, rather than creating and their own on a tight timeline.
But "The Real Empire" had its own issues. Having borne the brunt of Alliance counterattacks, the Klingons had recently been caught unprepared and lost a number of assets on their borders, including repair facilities and several battlestations on both fronts. This was beyond reproach - many regarded this result as the result of incompetence, or worse, treason. The Emperor recalled his Admirals overseeing both the Kzinti and Hydran theatres, and demanded their public suicide. Growing discontent with the direction of the war was evident in the populace as well as the Hight Countil, and the measure was approved. To the shock and surprise of all, however, at the broadcast of this ritual ceremony the Emperor drove a ceremonial dagger into his own chest. This instantly ended not only his life but his bloodline, having been left childless.
Unlike Saber-Tooth the elder, the Emperor had had time to arrange successors before his death. The High Council affirmed the old Emperor's choice for replacement, after only minor dissent. The Emperor's young protege Timur, from a wealthy and well-respected overlordship manor family on Dunkaria, ascended to the throne to prove his worth. Although many amongst Klingon rank had their concerns, an impassioned speech given at the official state funeral of the late Emperor did much to bolster Timur's reputation. He was at least a gifted orator, and charismatic. He was a proven statesman, but not a proven warrior, however. He would have to show concrete results to win over the brass, particularly the high council. It was certainly on his side that, for the moment, they had no choice but to support him. The young man's ambitions were fully realized, only now he understood that it was up to him to restore the Empire to its former glory...
Y170 Fall, Coalition turn 5
Lyran Economy
Survey
Prev Total:39
New Roll:8
Total: 47 (+1 province)
Command Points: 8+1-1=8
Prev Turn:
-8 Field Repair
17.375 salvage (DN, BCx2, CAx2, DWS, CL, DD, FF)
11.275 old treasury
20.65 remaining (end of A4)
Income
Maj Planets(9):45
Min Planets(10):30
On-Map Provinces(16):32
Off-Map Provinces(6):12
Captured NZ
1.4)
Captured Provinces7) (0701, 0901, 0803, 1101, 1104, 1303, 0714)
Captured Planets1) (1001, min)
Total:128.4
New Treasury:149.05
Production [59.5]
10 BC
8 TGA sub CA
20 CWx4
6 DWS sub DW
8 DWx2
7.5 FFx3 (0408)
Repairs [30.5]
D6M, D7, CCx2, CWx7, CLx2, DWx2, DDx2, FFx2
Conversions [5]
5 CA to STT 0408
Overbuilds [5]
FF (0411)
Other Production [27]
20 transfer to Klingons (tribute payment)
7 PDU
127 total expenses
22.05 remaining
Klingon Economy Y170F
Survey
Prev Total:30
New Roll: 12
Total: 42 (+1 province)
B10
Prev Total:10
New Roll: 6
Total: 16
Command Points:6+1-1=6
End CT4 Treasury: 30.525
Field Repair: -24
Salvage: +25 (C8, D7C, D7, D6, D6M, D5x2, F5L, F5x4, E4x2, E4Ax2)
Drone Bombardment: -7.2
Allied delivery: +20
Start treasury: 44.325
Income
Maj Planets(9):45
Min Planets(15):45
On-Map Provinces(26):52
Off-Map Provinces(2):4
Captured NZ18):3.6
Captured planets (2 min):2 (1504, 1202)
Captured Prov(2):2 (1501, 1404)
Total C3 income:153.6
Total:153.6+44.325=197.925 new treasury
Production [108.5]
9 D7C
11 D6S sub D7
10 D6M sub D6
7 D5V sub D5 (6fff)
12 AD5 x2 sub D5x2
25 D5 x6
8 F5L x2
8 F5E x2 sub F5x2
6 F5 x2
7.5 E4 x3 (1411, 1509, 1716)
Repair [40.5]
D7C, D6x4, D5x5, F5Lx2, F5S, F5x10, E4x9
Activate [6]
2 D6 x2 (14 remain)
2 F5 x2 (2 remain)
2 E4 x2 (2 remain)
Conversion [11]
5 D6 (activated) to D6M (major) 1411
3 D6 (activated) to D6D (minor) 1411
3 D6 (repaired) to D6D (minor) 1411
Other Expenses [21]
5 B10 work
10 FRD
6 Convoy
187 total expenses
10.925 remaining
Sam and Richard have certainly provided a challenge this game. I've really had to put a lot more thought into strategy because of things like the Expedition gambit; my choice there was commit most of the ships that should be devastating Hydrax right now to instead prevent early Federation entrance to the war. Sam also has the habit of attacking with *the entire* Kzinti fleet on Alliance turns, to the point where the Kzinti have no reserves because everything op moved. (Not that it matters, there is nothing left to attack outside of 1401 except the Marquis zone.)
As to rolls, the coalition certainly stumbled over Kzintai, but the dice gods appear to have given the Klingons a karmic gift in the form of survey and B10 rolls. Rolls in Hydran space were pretty even overall, if not to coalition advantage. Even though the Hydrans have lost a lot of hulls, it is notable that Hydrax has so far been untouched. If I were the Alliance I'd still be happy with the result; for the coalition reducing Hydran ship count was mostly a consolation prize.
C5 combat is ongoing. The Kzinti theatre is finished, mainly because 1401 was the only opposed battle. There, the last PDUs were stripped and Kzintai itself devastated (also all the outer planets were re-devastaed) but the SB remains. In exchange, the coalition lost some hulls. Nothing major, except Sam one-shotted a CVT carrier group that I had no business putting on the line; that was painful. A couple of Kzinti hulls were also killed along with a few cripples, while the coalition has at least a dozen more cripples, which was to be expected. Sam was big on direct-killing ships each round, so the cripple backlog is not terrible. That's great news for the Klingons, who have now lost 2 FRDs on the Kzinti border.
We are starting combat rounds in Hydran space, where the Exp and 2nd SB are under attack, as well as the remaining BATS (3) and the forward-deployed convoy and FRD. Richard is also prudently attacking a picket line I set up to cut off the old colonies with a superior force
Total casualty count for C5's capital assault:
Kzinti dead: CM EFF 6PDU
Kzinti crippled: CC Z6M
Klingon dead: CVT F5V D7 2F5L E4A
Lyran dead: STT CW
Klingon crippled: 3D7 D5 2F5 E4
Lyran crippled: BC CA 6CW 2DW DWS
This was 5 total rounds of combat, plus pursuit. Karl put up low compot lines (60ish) over the outer planets, so I fought the ones where I had a big enough compot edge. I only directed on carrier groups and maulers (3/5 rounds). Low rolls in pursuit meant that I only did 6 damage, but with my mauler that meant that I got d7 cw anyway.
The only repair facilities in range are Lyran FRDs in 1105 and 0803 and a Klingon BATS in 1307, so some of those ships aren't coming back next turn. I'm hoping the Klingons bring another FRD to 1506.
I will say that I'm surprised Karl keeps putting FVs on the line. This is the third FV group I've been able to kill. As much as I like it, I feel like I should mention that FV+E4A is possibly the best possible target you can put up. 28 damage for ships that cost 15.5EP to build, and you get two ships. It's arguably a better target than TG+BP which is 28 damage for 16EP. Especially if the Klingons are even considering overbuilding E4s.
Note that destroying ships doesn't cost the owner anything - the EPs are already paid.
The value at this point isn't really the EPs it cost but the worth of the unit.
What is more worthy for the war effort, a Klingon battle tug or an FV+E4A group?
It depends on what is going on.
Quick question
"Low rolls in pursuit meant that I only did 6 damage, but with my mauler that meant that I got d7 cw anyway"
8 Damage done, something self killed in pursuit or wrong ships noted as dead?
(As d7 and cw is 8 - assuming the Z-D6M was availabe..... 
)
I kept trying to develop a strong opinion one way or the other about FV+E4A vs. BT, but having failed after sixty seconds of thought, I'm going to agree with Richard that it depends...
I don't know why you would put F5V+E4A on the line, though, since the compot density is 5.0 which isn't much better than flying up the fighters as IFF.
The d7 was mauled, the cw was a self kill.
Richard: Yeah, but EP cost is a good proxy for worth. Or, at least, there isn't a better proxy that's broadly applicable. Of course what's desirable to direct changes.
Paul: 4 with the mauler, left 2 damage to take, and a cw was the smallest thing on the line (other option was crippling a D6D and the Klingons are hurting for repair right now).
Graham: I'd almost put the FV unescorted sending fighters forward (I wouldn't, but almost) before I'd put FV+E4A on the line. My opinion: the BT is more valuable if the Klingons are hurting for CR10 units, but otherwise the Coalition is usually trying to maintain pincount superiority and 2.5 SEQ in one round is significant. Carriers provide more value than other units by being alive for longer (your average mauler provides value once, a heavy cruiser maybe more times but fewer turns than a carrier, etc). So killing them early in the game is more worth it.
I mean, it's partly a doctrine thing (in the same way that Richard will overbuild a dozen frigates whenever possible :P ). But if you're not putting anything else valuable on the line, I'm killing those little carriers every time.
Hey, I've been known to overbuild Lyran CWs!
Heck, in 4PW, I've been known to overbuild RNs!
CW death - tough call, cripple a D6D or self kill the cw.
With the choice - I would probably 90% of the time kill the FV+E4A too...
At this point, I've been using Klingon FVs essentially as glorified FCRs (considering this is a basic game) but in this case I was trying to bait Sam out to fight at already devastated outer planets on equal footing. Unfortunately, I underestimated how much COMPOT he could put up, and the FV+E4A was a casualty. I'm honestly more mad at myself for putting the CVT group on the line that Sam rolled enough to one-shot, when I had a D6V group I could have used instead...
As far as using economics to "keep score," that's a good yardstick I think, but from a strategic standpoint you have to do things that don't economically make sense in order to achieve your objectives. Particularly for the coalition. Ultimately it's all subjective.
^
C5 is done, relatively a quiet round with only a capital assault happening in Kzinti space, which stripped the rest of the PDUs and devastated the planet itself but did not finish off the SB or drive off the Kzinti fleet. As Sam mentioned earlier, the loss of both a CVT group and a FV group were notable for the coalition.
Hydran space was also anticlimactic; mostly I was bringing foxes to bear within striking distance of 0617 (read: the 100+ seq of ships distracted by the attempt at an expedition), and had attacked the remaining SBs as well as an unattended FRD and Convoy. I briefly considered a run at Hydrax, but with a PAL+7DG sitting there it looked like the fleet I would send in wouldn't likely make it back home, so I reconsidered. (The PAL/DG squad ultimately went on to save the FRD 2 hexes away.) Reserves saved the SBs as well, so I had to make peace with simply directing on Hydran ships where possible, and bagging a few cruiser hulls. Richard came out in top, though, as I lost many more hulls than he did thanks to aggressive pursuit and creative retreat, which seems to be his forte.
All in all I'm disappointed by slow progress in the Hydran theatre, as now I'm burning daylight with looming Fed involvement. But hey, it could be worse; if the expedition succeeded the Feds would already be involved.
I've always said it is important in F&E to know the retreat rules backwards and forwards.
*Hydran A5 eco, FY170
*Hydran survey: 22 + 11 (A5) = 33.
*Hydran income: 74EP +2EP (Survey) -10EP(captured/disruption) = 76EP.
*Old treasury: (A4 Eco) 0.75EP 2.25FFF + 3 (A4 Salvage 2LN) - 11 (A4 Field Repair RN LN TG) + 6.25 (C5 Salvage LB 2RN) = -1EP 2.25FFF.
*New treasury = -1EP 2.25FFF(Old Treasury) + 66EP (income) = 65 EP + 2.25FFF
*Production:
9.5 DG(sub CV)
2.5 CU(sub DE)
8 DG(0.75FFF)
5 2CU(sub 2AH)
12.5 TR HR(1.5FFF) HN(sub HR)
15 3CU(0215, 0716, 0617) 3HN
0 1CP(one free)
=======================================
52.5 EP 2.25FFF
Repairs:
1.5 DE (0515)
4.5 RN CU PGS(0716)
2 DG (08xx)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
8.5
Conversions:
Treasury: 4EP 0FFF
Now have 2CP.
Kzinti A5 Econ:
Survey: 38+7=45
Treasury: 0.15 + 3.75 (salvage) - 5.2 (DBB) + 35 (income) = 33.7
Build 3MEC FF (20.5)
Convert BC -> CV (5)
Repair Z6M CC (1401) CC EFF (OM) (8)
CP 3-2+1=2
New Treasury: 0.2
-----------------------
Marquis' grid:
Treasury: 1 + 7 (income) = 8
Build FF (2.5)
Repair 2BC CM (5.5)
New Treasury: 0