In other games in years gone by, my group would generate lists of computer random numbers for dice, and then allow the players to either pick from their list for their rolls, or take them sequentially. The lists would be 100% statistically "expected" (60 rolls of a D6 would be 10/10/10/10/10/10 within relatively small windows.

This gave the players what felt like more control and decision making on random events, and tended to limit the "bad dice rollers" feeling like they played well enough to win but the dice conspired against them.

It did change the game though, as when using the pick method, the players could somewhat save their good rolls for the most important situations and dispose of their bad rolls on unimportant ones. And that became part of the strategy of the game.

--Mike

By Richard Eitzen (Rbeitzen) on Wednesday, September 15, 2021 - 01:31 pm: Edit

Paul, you do not have 'bad luck' in regards to dice in the sense that the laws of probability do not apply to you. I believe that the laws of the universe apply to everyone, everywhere. Some people may believe otherwise but the universe doesn't actually care and events unfold as according to those universal laws without being affected by such erroneous beliefs.

By Mike Erickson (Mike_Erickson) on Wednesday, September 15, 2021 - 02:47 pm: Edit

True Richard, and at the same time false.

The "laws of probability" do apply to everyone and everything everywhere, and there is a distribution of improbable events. Some people get them, some don't. A person might play the lottery every day for 40 years and never win a thing. Another person may play the lottery once and win $1M. Is that winner "lucky"? Yes. And it's just probability. Someone has to win. And for the very few lottery winners there are the huge number of people who do not win. Are they "unlucky"? Yes, and thats probability too.

So if we were to take two dice rolling game players, and record all the dice they ever rolled for their entire lives and then added up how the D6 fell for them, it certainly could come up that one player got better overall rolls over their lifetime than the other player. So one player was "luckier". It happens. And in the grand scheme of the universe it all balances out for all the players and all the dice rolled everywhere. It just didn't "balance" out for that particular player over that particular interval.

Now, of course, there is the emotional layer on top of that where a player who statistically actually rolled average or better than average feels like they rolled poorly and the universe is stacked against them. But that is a separate topic.

--Mike

By Ted Fay (Catwhoeatsphoto) on Wednesday, September 15, 2021 - 03:07 pm: Edit

All the above statements are accurate, in a way.

The distinction being made, either explicitly or implicitly, is that there is 1) a governing principle, 2) a fact, and 3) a human valuation of the fact.

The governing principle is the laws of mathematics as they relate to probability. We might argue whether a particular software implementation of a die roller is actually "random" (in the mathematical sense), but the principle remains the same regardless of the fact of a particular outcome or the valuation of the fact.

The fact is the result in a particular instance. In this game, the fact is the result of the die roll and is known to all.

The human valuation of the fact is whatever we make it to be.

The human valuation has no impact on either the fact or the governing principle. Calling something lucky or unlucky may or may not be valuable to a human from a human valuation standpoint, but that valuation has no bearing on the principle or the fact.

One way of viewing "luck" is that we "have" (i.e. possess) "good" luck. There is a sense that some force is adjusting the principle that affected an outcome in our case. This is, at least in Richard's view, objectionable. I don't subscribe to it either.

Another way to view "luck" is kind of the way Mike stated it. I may say I was "lucky" simply as a short hand way of stating that a particularly unlikely favorable fact occurred for me. It conveys information (that the event happened (fact) and that I'm happy about it (human valuation)). In this sense, saying "I am lucky" is both correct and proper, as no idea is being set forth that something influenced the principle to bring me the particular fact. I would be surprised if Richard disagreed with me on this perspective of what "luck" is.

One may "play the odds", but even then one is making an "educated guess" and being disappointed or elated at a particular fact changes neither the fact nor the principle. However, it does change our valuation of the fact and can very much alter our decision to play the odds.

So, yeah, I say I'm lucky or unlucky. But when I say that, all I means is that a relatively improbable fact occurred and that I liked or didn't like it.

Getting mad about bad luck is not helpful. The only one who suffers is you. If you don't like a game that is subject to "bad luck" (in the sense I mean it), then don't play the game.

Asserting that one is oppressed by bad luck or that one is fundamentally lucky or unlucky would be incorrect. Because now you have made some kind of nebulous assertion that "something" is altering the mathematical or physical principles to suit you or oppress you. That would be incorrect, and likely objectionable to Richard.

My two quatloos.

By Alan Trevor (Thyrm) on Wednesday, September 15, 2021 - 03:09 pm: Edit

Always with the negative waves, Moriarty. Always with the negative waves.

By Richard Eitzen (Rbeitzen) on Thursday, September 16, 2021 - 03:31 am: Edit

Mike: I am in no way wrong. Dice have no memory.

By Richard Eitzen (Rbeitzen) on Thursday, September 16, 2021 - 03:47 am: Edit

A5 Survey.

The Kzinti find 8 survey points with 3 ships and 2 more with a PT. A 4th ship finds resources worth 5 EPs.

The Hydrans find 9 survey points with 2 ships and gain 2 more from a PT. A 3rd ship tries to tame a Space Amoeba and is partially eaten. This always seems to happen, perhaps Space Amoebas just aren't tamable. Or perhaps they just like alliance ships a lot.

By Richard Eitzen (Rbeitzen) on Friday, September 17, 2021 - 08:22 am: Edit

*Start survey total: 49.
*Survey roll: 8+2(PT).
*New total: 59.


*Treasury 20.625+3EPs(1704 grid reunified), 6FFF(end of A4 eco). Previous email of A4 end did not include 10 EP from WYN trade or 10EP from ship sales.
*A5 borrowed: 0
*A5 Wyncovia = 5 (start).
*A5 trade rights =6 (start)+6 (new) = 12.
*A4 ComCon?
*C5 Salvage: 1.375 (FKE EFF ).
*C5 DBB 0.6EP(1202) = 0.6.
*A5 start turn treasury: 24.4EP.
*A5 debt at turn start: 15.7 EP.
*CPs: 1.

*Income:
*On map (outside capital hex): 3 (1401 1202 1704 -disrupted) +2 (1801 prov) + 3 (Dmitris)= 8.
*Off map: 17+4 = 21.
*Capital: 5 (Kzintai) + 6(3 dev major) + 4(4 dev minor) = 15
*Captured nz: 0.
*Captured provinces: 0.
*Captured planets: 0.
*Other income: 4(DIP) + 5(SURVEY).
*Total income: 53EP.

*National debt: 15.7EP.
*Borrowing limit: 10.6.
*Interest payment: 1.57EP.
*Current treasury balance: 75.83,6FFF.


*Production:
12 CV(6FFF)
2.5 FF (sub BC)
18 3MEC(sub MEC 2CM)
22 FFK FKE 5FF SF(one OM one 1704) (sub EFF CL 5FF)
5 CP
0 Activate PT
Callup POL (1401).
0 (OM) MSY-CM#1(ENG)-T2
----------------------------------------
59.5 Total


*Conversions:
-------------------------------------------------------
3 EP (1401) FFK->FKE 2FF->SF

*Repairs:
7.5 (1401) FF CV 2CLE EFF
7 (OM) BF FF BCE SR
-----------------------------------------
14.5 EP

Depot
CL enters depot
-----------------------------------------------------------
67 Total

*EPs Borrowed: 0.

*New Borrowing Limit remaining: 10.6.
*Current debt: 15.7.

*Treasury: 8.83EP, 0FFF.

By Richard Eitzen (Rbeitzen) on Saturday, September 18, 2021 - 04:36 pm: Edit

A5 ODM Hydran eco

*Old Survey: 33
*A5 Survey roll: 9 + 2
*New Survey Total: 44.

*Previous Treasury (A4 end eco): 0EP 6.25FFF
*C5 salvage: 5.625 (MON 2LN CU)

*Income: 0FFF, 74 EP + 4EP(survey) - 18EP(captured/disrupted) = 0FFF 60 EP.
*National Debt: 21.97EP
*Pay interest: -2.197EP
*Borrowing limit 12.
*Pay debt 0.928.
*Current Treasury: 62.5 6.25FFF

*Production:
6 RN(sub CV, 2.25FFF)
4 LN(sub DE, 1FFF)
5 2CU(sub 2AH)
9.5 DG
15 TR 2HR(3FFF)
16 3CU 3HN (one CU at each of 0215 OM)
5 CP
3 PV(callup)
Free POL Callup(0617) PT
----------------------------------------------------
62.5 EP

Conversions:

Repairs:
hn added tp depot.
Borrow EP.
Borrowing limit remaining: 12EP.
Treasury at end eco: 0EP, 0FFF, 1CP, 21.042EP debt.

By Ted Fay (Catwhoeatsphoto) on Saturday, September 18, 2021 - 10:00 pm: Edit

No Coalition objections to AT5 eco.

By Richard Eitzen (Rbeitzen) on Sunday, September 19, 2021 - 01:11 pm: Edit

*A5 FY170 other alliance powers' eco:

*Federation:

*Old treasury 1 DIP:
*A5 income: 1910(3 DIP EP) 3415(3 DIP EP) +DIP INCOME(3EP) = 9 DIP EP.
*A5 expenditures:
*A5 PWC: DN, 3xNCL, 3xFF (Fourth Fleet) PT
*A5 new treasury. DIP.

*Gorn:
*Initial treasury: 3DIP EP.
*Income: 3DIP(Midketh) 3DIP EP.
*Production(PWC): HD, 2xBD (6th Fleet).
*Conversions: (4402) CL->TG(4).
*New Treasury: 5DIP EP.

*Tholians:
*Production: 2919:
PC.
*Conversions: 2919:
PC->DD

*No neutral planets change status.

By Ted Fay (Catwhoeatsphoto) on Monday, October 04, 2021 - 01:49 pm: Edit

A5 raids disrupt 501 and 503.

A5 Operational

ZTO: The Kzinti avoid the core Coalition fleets and the upgrading BATS in 1506 and 1403 (well, they couldn't really get to them anyway). However, they're feeling pretty ornery on CT5. They've attacked and will take planets 1001 and 1105. They've also attacked Lyran BATS 705, and Klingon BATS 906, 1107, 1307, and 1707- and they will kill all but 1 since I only have 1 reserve in the region. They also attacked some hapless picketers in 903. Apparently the Kzinti do not believe in the freedom to assemble!

In the HTO the Hydrans attack picketers in 212 and 413. They send a pinning force to pin my reserve in 411. They appear to be avoiding my massive reserves in 1214 (where the bulk of Coalition forces are waiting to make a drive on capturing the Hydran capital on CT6).

Operational movement not yet over.

By Richard Eitzen (Rbeitzen) on Monday, October 04, 2021 - 02:57 pm: Edit

You better not attack 0617. The Hydrans are allied with the Borak, you know, and they'll join in with a couple reserves to defend 0617 and then go attack the Far Stars.

Having shown weakness, the Coalition will be ripe for rebellion from the LDR and Vudar. The Tholians will also join in. You'll see!

By Ted Fay (Catwhoeatsphoto) on Monday, October 04, 2021 - 03:20 pm: Edit

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_cY5JLjzCNQ

By Richard Eitzen (Rbeitzen) on Tuesday, October 05, 2021 - 05:35 pm: Edit

Additional ships go to Lyran battle hexes in the Hydran theatre. Those are some overkilled pickets.

Op moves are done; the only Coalition reserve that could move (at 1403) went to go save BATS 1707 (they'll get 2FFK there).

Combat has started, Lyran BATS 0705, the last on the Kzinti border was destroyed for fighters by a rag tag group of Kzinti ships (FFT CVE MEC DDV FCR EFF CLD SF).

By Richard Eitzen (Rbeitzen) on Thursday, October 07, 2021 - 06:45 pm: Edit

Combat is over.

In the Kzinti theatre, four Coalition BATS are destroyed (1707 was saved by a reserve).
These were BATS 0705 0906 1107 and 1307. The Kzintis also liberate planet 1001 (they fought a round at 1105 and retreated without liberating the planet as the Coalition would cut off other Kzintis ships if that didn't happen).

Some pickets in Kzinti space also got beat up, losing a small ship.

In the Hydran theatre, the Hydrans invade the Lyran Empire, attacking two border pickets (each loses a small ship) and then attacking the FRD at SB 0411, destroying it (and a PTR that thought it should be in the battle force) in exchange for losing a LN and fighters. The Hydrans then retreated onto the remains of one of the picket forces (not at 0412), obliterating the lone FF before retreating again.

Not the most active of turns but I'm sure things will get more heated

By Richard Eitzen (Rbeitzen) on Sunday, October 10, 2021 - 01:50 am: Edit

Turn is over. Kzintis mostly retrogrades to 1401 (a few ships offmap, riffraff generally).

A small force is at 1704, two large reserves offmap.

The Hydrans turtle up in 0617, leaving a force of modest size at 0215 and two large reserves offmap, with minor pickets at a couple other places.

*Retrogrades:
*In 0704, Earl;s Fleet goes 1N 4NE 1N to Kzinti offmap.
*In 0905, CC ffk FF CV go 4NE 1N 1NE to 1401 forming Titan's Fleet.
*In 1106, ff CV mec fke go 1N 3NE 1N 1NE to 1401, joining Titan's Fleet.
*In 1306, bc CV EFF eff go 1N 1NW 1N 1NE 1N 1NE tp 1401, joining Titan's Fleet.
*In 0903, Battle Fleet goes 1N 2NE 1SE 1NE 1SE to 1401 and joins Titan's Fleet.
*In 1104, Constable's Fleet goes 2NE1N 1NE to 1401 and joins Titan's Fleet.
*In 1001, Attack Fleet goes 1NE 1SE 1NE 1SE to 1401 and joins Titan's Fleet.
*In 1706, FF goes to 1704, 2DNL go 4N 2NW 1SW to 1401.
*In 0213, 3KN LN CU LNG SC go to 0215 and join 2nd Fleet.
*In 0413, BT 2KN LN CU HN GRV go to 0215 and join 2nd Fleet. 3HN go to 0318, 2CU go to 0519. The rest of Gold Fleet goes to 0617.

*Strategic movement:
*Kzntis:
(1-6 of 6) In 1401, DN ADM BT 3DD SAV go offmap.
(free) In 1401, 3FF 2CV 3MEC 2FKE EFF 3SF PT go offmap. pods go to TGT in ???.
(free) In offmap, SR goes to survey.
*Hydran:
(free) TG in 0617 picks up SP. DG RN TR 2HR LN 3CU 3HN PT in 0617 go offmap. In 0215, CU goes offmap. In 0617 POL PV go to 0519.
(1-6 of 6) PAL 2LGE 2THR SC in 0617 go offmap.
*Federation:
(free) DN 3NCL 3FF go to 2204.

*Reserves:
*Kzintis (both offmap):
*1st: DN ADM PT 3DD 2CV 3MEC 2FKE SF
*2nd: BT BF 5FF 2CLE EFF SAV 2SF
*Federation:
*2nd (2204) - DN CA CF 3NCL 3DD 2FF.
*Hydran (both offmap):
*1st: 2LGE RN 2THR TR 2HR 2CU PGS SC PT
*2nd: PAL DG TR LN 3CU 3HN LAV PGS SAS

No command points expended during the turn, no DBB.

By Ted Fay (Catwhoeatsphoto) on Tuesday, October 19, 2021 - 01:48 pm: Edit

CT6 Eco:

Lyrans:
-1214: BS(3)->BATS(6).
-1403: MB->BATS(6).
-Build VP pod
-Use convoys to work on 3*MiSY (1*Maj Con, 1*FF, 1*DW). 1st MiSY produces a FF.
-National debt now at 59. Remainder of details here:

https://www.dropbox.com/s/zxceqh9pz8d0a8g/Coalition%20Lyran.xlsx?dl=0

Klingons:
-1403: BATS(6)->SB(6).
-B10 rolls stand at 11; Swarm at 27; 3 SFG kits.
-Use 2*COE and 2*Convoy to work on 4*MiSY (3*F5, D5).
-National debt stands at 63.
-All other details available here:

https://www.dropbox.com/s/2o3ea6citfu8t96/Coalition%20Klingon.xlsx?dl=0

By Ted Fay (Catwhoeatsphoto) on Tuesday, October 19, 2021 - 01:50 pm: Edit

CT6 Raids:

-Klingon D5H does its usual part in the WYN shuffle with a BR.
-5 Military raids (116, 117, 219, 1710, 1805). All raids succeed, except for 116 where the raider was forced to retreat uncrippled.

By Ted Fay (Catwhoeatsphoto) on Tuesday, October 19, 2021 - 01:58 pm: Edit

CT6 Operational:

ZTO:
-I consolidate all outer provinces and attack 1001 (abandoned) with only 4 ships - likely to draw a reserve and attack it. The bulk of my fleets hits up 1401 (the only other combat), but it's only 90 SEQ to his some 130 SEQ. I left about 50 SEQ sitting on 1403 to setup many powerful reserves in the ZTO for AT6.

-Expected Results: Expect to fight some rounds over capital planets to try to redevastate some of them and to work on reducing the Kzinti fleet a little before I run like a little girl screaming from big-bad Kzintai major.

HTO:
-BATS busting force hits up 114, one of two other BATS left to the Hydrans.
-Another BATS busting force hits up 318, big enough to defeat soundly the HNs there and not get destroyed outright if he sends a reserve there.
-Similarly sized planet busters go to 416 and 519, which are similarly defended.
-Reshuffle a few pickets.
-Everything else hits up 617 (including a SAF) for what is obviously a play at pushing the Hydrans out of 617 this turn.
-Currently at 617 there are 158.3 SEQ in attackers (plus a SAF and several other AUXes) against 90.5 SEQ in defenders (plus several AUXes).


The Kzintis have two good reserves offmap and only two targets. Neither is needed to save the capital. Reserve designations seem obvious here, but maybe he'll surprise me.

The Hydrans have two good reserves offmap. There's a decent chance I can take the capital even if he sends both reserves to 617, but if he does there's a decent chance I cannot take the capital this turn. However, he has 4 other valuable targets he could *definitely* save. I make no predictions here; I'm not sure what Richard will do other than cause me no end of grief.

Combat to commence after reserve designations.

By Ted Fay (Catwhoeatsphoto) on Wednesday, October 20, 2021 - 01:03 am: Edit

Richard surprised me.

1st Hydran reserve goes to 0416, 2nd goes to 0617.

1st and 2nd Kzinti reserves go to 1401.

By Richard Eitzen (Rbeitzen) on Thursday, February 10, 2022 - 09:23 pm: Edit

The Coalition have devastated the Anthraxan and Hydramax systems, no ships defended.

The next target is the minor in the Hydrax system, where the Hydrans defend with CWs and a couple carrier groups (and a PAL).

The Hydrans have about 3 command 10 ships, 5CC 14 CA 7CW or so, two carrier groups and an assortment of smaller ships (the fast ships went elsewhere).

The Coalition have sent their best ships to fight.

Things could get icky.

By Richard Eitzen (Rbeitzen) on Thursday, February 17, 2022 - 12:15 am: Edit

At 0617, the Hydrans kill a D7A at Hydrax minor and lose a PGS (and fighters).

After nine additional rounds over Hydrax itself, things are icky, the Hydrans having a near 200 compot line, but usually firing and -2. The Coalition started at 150 compot(!) but their compot has declined to 112 for various reasons. A lot of cripples and dead fighters on both sides, the Hydrans having lose a MON-V, LAV and HR(autokill) but the Coalition have lost a C8 DN K-LAV and L-LAV as well as an F5L. The battle has been savage and does not show a lot of signs of coming close to an end as yet.

By Ted Fay (Catwhoeatsphoto) on Thursday, February 17, 2022 - 10:58 am: Edit

Actual battle footage of Stinger-2s in action in front of the capital at the Battle of Hydrax.

By Ted Fay (Catwhoeatsphoto) on Thursday, February 24, 2022 - 10:12 am: Edit

The Hydran capital assault was a total bloodbath. The Hydrans were dug in like a tick and simply not willing to give up, even to preserve their fleet. However, in the end, they did retreat after 25 rounds of brutalistic combat. There was a round 26, but the abandoned starbases's automatic weapons and booby traps only managed to cripple a Lyran SC on the last round, though of course the base did cover the escape of a massive number of Hydran cripples.

Tale of the Tape:

Klingon KIA: C8, D6M, D7A, D7, F5, E4, 3*D6S, LAV, D6D (CAPTURED)

Klingon WIA: 2*C5, 4*D6M, 2*D7, 3*FD7, D6, 8*D5, 20*F5, E4, AD5, F5E, D5H+N


Lyran KIA: 2*DN, TGC+AP+

Lyran WIA: TGC+BP, 2*BC, 2*CA, 2*CF, 9*CW, 3*CL, 3*DW, 5*DD, CLS, SC, TGP+S, TGC+2*KTP, LTT.


Hydran KIA: SB, 5*PDU (outer planets), LC, RN, HR, LN, CU, 2*PGS, 2*FHL, SAS, LAS, F5L, SAV, F5S, LAV, MON-V, MB (disassembled, went down with SB).

Hydran WIA: PAL, 5*RN, 7*DG, 4*HR, 3*TR, LNG, 2*TG+VP, 2*DE, LN, 2*CR, 11*CU, 12*HN, 4*FFT, 2*HNG, TG+SP, 2*SC, D6D (CAPTURED), Hydran conveyor pallet was emptied (and will require EPs if ever refilled).


Total Hydran SEQ Lost: 13 (plus capital goes down)
Total Hydran repair bill*: 171 repair points (85.5 EPs)


Total Coalition SEQ Lost: 14
Total Coalition repair bill: 227 repair points (113.5 EPs).


Fighters Chewed: 61 Coalition (out of 62), 219 Hydran (out of 219). Meaning that damage done was nearer to parity.



*Note: Repair bills likely to be less due to anticipated use of the depot.


As a side note, the above statistics really bear out the effect of directing. But for a few uses of the mauler I let the damage fall. Richard often did too, but all those DNs, maulers, and scouts were directed, which is why on a pure damage perspective we were almost at parity in terms of damage *received* (SEQ loss and repair bill), despite the fact that I was typically facing a 170+ compot line (But I managed to keep my compot over 100 the whole time, and started with 150).

However, take that with a grain of salt because I two-shifted the Hydrans almost the entire battle, saving me probably the better part of 100 damage or more. Also, the loss of Coalition capital ships has its own consequences down the road.

Anyway, long, brutal, but interesting battle. I think both sides played well (Richard can chime in on this). Dice had their ups and downs, but I think slightly favored the Alliance (he had a run of 5's and 6s towards the end) but more or less dice evened out.