Russia claims it has arrested a Ukrainian spy in Moscow who was going to conduct a false flag attack on the British embassy. Western sources dismissed this as a sham theater production.

Russia is using hundreds of jet powered garan/shaheed drones which can outrun Ukraine’s vaunted intercept drones.

Russia is suffering a labor shortage of factory workers of 1,500,000 people.

Total Russian casualties are 1,000,000 wounded and 500,000 dead.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Saturday, September 12, 2026 - 01:15 am: Edit

Russia fired 900 drones and 41 missiles this week, a slight decrease.

Zelenskyy’s flight to Norway from Moldova for the king’s funeral was delayed when a Russian drone entered Moldovan airspace. It is unclear if this was an assassination attempt.

Britain arrested a British national who was spying for Russia and planning to sabotage British drone factories.

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Saturday, September 12, 2026 - 02:17 pm: Edit

The Saudi East-West oil pipeline was damaged by drones and temporarily closed. The strike came from Iraq. Probably an Iran-linked actor.

Saudi Arabia badly needs drone defense (as SVC keeps saying in general). Separately, it needs competence in offensive drone usage, which would enable it to hurt the Houthis.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Saturday, September 12, 2026 - 04:08 pm: Edit

CREATIVE TARGETING

Steve Petrick and I spent lunch one day discussing what creative targets Ukraine could use to move the war toward an end. We discussed...

The Onion Domes of the Kremlin: Nothing says "war hurts" like wrecking a national land mark such as the twin towers or the White House. Holes in those historic onion domes would be something that would be noticed. But we decided not to since those were cultural landmarks.

The Dachas of the Oligarchs: Drone hits on the private country homes of the top Russian leaders would certainly get their attention. That seemed a little personal and ungentlemanly. We considered just bombing Putin's dacha and letting the Oligarchs know they were lose their weekend love nests if they don't get rid of Putin. Even that seemed "below the belt".

Bridges: This we decided was the way to go. Make a list of the biggest rail/highway bridges in European Russia and start a new bingo card. This would disrupt the barely functioning Russian logistics system.

Airports: Nominally civilian targets, you could claim dual use, Russia has hit the ones in Ukraine, and it would disrupt the Russian economy and transportation system. Hitting them at 2am might minimize civilian casualties.

Your suggestions? I be Will has several, Jessica and Ryan and Chuck probably could, too.

By Carl-Magnus Carlsson (Hardcore) on Saturday, September 12, 2026 - 05:39 pm: Edit

Railways. Russias military got railway troop. That's how important rail is to t hem

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Saturday, September 12, 2026 - 06:23 pm: Edit

Onion domes be darned!

Putin has zero claim for any Target immunity given the schools, hospitals, shopping malls, museums etc that Russia has targeted.

The Russians have tried for two years+ to crush the Ukrainian population will to fight.e

The only down side is if an attack on the national land marks encourages the Russian People towards a war of revenge.

With respect to the Dachas of the Oligarchs: the below the belt comment is true and appropriate, but taking out all of the Oligarchs, their families, servants and support staff members should be retained as a reserved option. There is more than one scenario that any change in leadership or regime requires support of the oligarchs. Without that, subsequent changes in national leadership becomes an unknown (and unkowable) variable.

Certainly the CIA would not support such a course.

For an innovative option, consider targeting the agriculture segment of the economy, particularly those farms, factories and distribution nodes that supply alcohol (vodka).

Since the time of the Czars, through the Soviet era, and continued through present day, the Russian population consumption of alcoholic beverages is substantial and a factor in the general corruption evident across the nation.(general comment, certain regions with high Islamic populations tend to not use as much alcoholic beverages.)

If you REALLY want to disrupt Russia, try destroying the Communist party buildings, institutions and homes of the most senior apparatchiks. (Preferably, maximum casualties.). No Communist party, no organized support for the government.

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Saturday, September 12, 2026 - 06:32 pm: Edit

I think the Ukrainians are doing just fine on targeting. Just last night, there were large fires at:

* the TAGAZ drone assembly facility in Taganrog
* the central military airfield, also in Taganrog
* a synthetic rubber, monomers, and petrol additives plant in Tolyatti

Also:
* A Russian tanker was hit in the Black Sea
* Ukraine claimed (in a 24 hour period) hits on 638 vehicles and fuel tanks. A record for that category.

And newly reported hits from previous times:
* a corvette in the Caspian Sea
* a TU-95 bomber at Engels-2 airbase. Photo shows its wing broken into at least two pieces. Google says Russia has about 40 of these.

Yes, the destruction of Russia's Lyman salient is real. Russia's milbloggers are complaining that Russia has "wasted" a year.

Only quibble is at times too much restraint. Typically imposed on them from the US. Both parties have been guilty of this when they were in power.

Zelensky has said that if Russia attacks the UA power grid this Winter, Ukraine will retaliate in kind.

By Jeff Anderson (Jga) on Saturday, September 12, 2026 - 08:19 pm: Edit

Power/electrical substations near steel production plants. They get shut down/frozen, it's almost a total rebuild, despite little observable damage.

Coal stockpiles. I don't know how much Russia uses coal for electricity production, but I DO know it's critically important for steel production. Drop a scattering of thermite in a coal stockpile, and OMG is it EVER a mess!

On top of that, they're both likely to be relatively exposed targets. Hitting either one will definitely impact Russian steel production AND force Putin to spread his anti-Drone capability thinner.

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Saturday, September 12, 2026 - 10:27 pm: Edit

Ohio State University published a paper on Energy consumptionin Russia.

Coal produces roughly 15% to 18% of Russia's electricity, and the country has made limited investments in wind farm technology.

Coal in Russia's Electricity MixCurrent share: Coal accounts for about 15% to 18% of Russia's total national electricity generation.

Primary fossil fuel: Natural gas is the dominant fossil fuel in Russia, producing roughly 44% to 47% of the country's electricity due to vast domestic reserves.

Other main sources: Low-carbon sources like nuclear power (~18–19%) and hydropower (~17%) make up a large portion of the remainder.

Investments in Wind Farm TechnologyLimited growth: Russia has invested in some wind energy, but it remains a tiny fraction of the overall grid (under 1% of total generation).

Note: the numbers do not add up to100%.

I tried to compress a rather large article into a smaller paragraph and must have missed a portion (unless the Ohio State research document was relying on published Russian data… the Russian Government is neither trusted or particularly reliable source of statistical information.)

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Saturday, September 12, 2026 - 10:47 pm: Edit

Logistics chokepoints. As Carl noted, railroads spring immediately to mind, given Russian reliance upon them for, well, pretty much everything. Take out three bridges crossing the Kama River (at Perm, Yushkovo, and Kumys), and four crossing the Volga (at Ulyanovsk and Tolyatti and the Syzran and Uvekskiy Bridges), and you've effectively severed the Trans-Siberian Railway from the European portion of Russia.

By A David Merritt (Adm) on Saturday, September 12, 2026 - 11:01 pm: Edit

Don't forget tunnels, narrow cuts, or cliff side areas in the Urals.

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Sunday, September 13, 2026 - 08:10 am: Edit

Pipelines.

Russia sells natural gas to Europe, and has interrupted deliveries now and then, but aside from that, Russia uses Natural gas for nearly 50% of the electricity generated in the country.

Double edged sword.

Europe gets cold during the winter, and destroying the distribution system for natural gas would potentially endanger millions of people, Russians, Germans, French…

But if you want to put pressure on Putin, that is one method.

Lots of things get delivered via pipelines, such as natural gas as well as oil, petroleum products like gasoline.

Even limited strikes will start to mess up the national logistical network.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Sunday, September 13, 2026 - 08:30 am: Edit

Another rejected option was to have bomber drones scatter incendiary hand grenades across wheat fields. Russia could do the same thing.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Sunday, September 13, 2026 - 09:05 am: Edit

Could we rig a drone with 500 pounds of yellow paint and slam it into the Kremlin wall?

By MarkSHoyle (Bolo) on Sunday, September 13, 2026 - 09:31 am: Edit

Watch for convoys at night...
Load dozens of drones with caltrops...
Fly from rear to front and drop them between vehicles....
At speed, imagine many trucks would end up
crashing....
The time to change and the cost to replace would drastically slow down resupply...

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Sunday, September 13, 2026 - 10:24 am: Edit

Last night there was

* a big fire at a medium-sized oil refinery (Slavyansk; capacity 5.2M tonnes per year)
* a hit on a large oil refinery (Nizhnekamsk), though unfortunately the only damage reported so far is a hit on an oil storage tank
* a nearby petrochemical complex may have also been hit, though at this point I'd consider that unverified.
* another UAV assembly location (Atlant Aero), with a large fire on the production area. A nearby warehouse containing finished Molniyas was also destroyed.

Newly reported from the previous night's strike on Taganrog: a Pantsir air defense system was destroyed.

Newly reported from Sept. 11: a Ukrainian missile destroyed the main workshop of the Volgogradpromproekt chemical plant in Volgograd.

I'm telling y'all, their targeting is fine.

They do need to further increase the pace and scale of their strikes.

By Mike Grafton (Mike_Grafton) on Sunday, September 13, 2026 - 12:14 pm: Edit

1) KGB/ FSB headquarters. IIRC there is one on Red Square that the commies stole from an American company many years ago.

2) Main telephone exchange buildings.

3) Suicide freighter vs the Strait of Baltiysk. Maybe better is to dispense with the giant explosive charge and just scuttle it (filled with rocks) in the most inconvenient place. Maybe some small scuttling charges along the bottom so it sinks quickly & in the right spot. "it measures 400 metres (1,300 ft) in width and 12 metres (39 ft) in depth." So maybe a couple of them?

4) Scatter pack freighter. Small crappy cheap freighter with "Operation Spiderweb" CONNEX. cruise past Kallingrad and drones away. Maybe combined with option 3 above?

5) Putins personal Dacha in Sochi. Just to send a message. Alternately have a plane spotter looking for "Putin Force 1" and hit it on the ground.

By Garth L. Getgen (Sgt_G) on Sunday, September 13, 2026 - 01:49 pm: Edit

How dependent is Russia on their railways?? That seems like an obvious target.

Also, if the small drones are accurate enough, target the loading docks at warehouses. If trucks can't move goods, the warehouses are effectively useless.


Garth L. Getgen

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Sunday, September 13, 2026 - 05:32 pm: Edit

Will, you are missing some things:

1. If their targeting is fine, why hasn't Putin surrendered yet? The slow plan is to do what they do and "eventually" win. The faster plan is to find the key that opens the door to victory. Remember a thing called WWII where the US/UK spent years trying to find what would make Germany surrender and didn't figure out until 1947 it would have been the power plants.

2. When you look at a list of targets in a category, you start with the easy/impactful ones and work your way down. Ukraine passed that point. More refinery hits are having 1/10 of the impact of the first refinery hits.

3. Ukrainian drone production is ramping up by thousands every month, and they need more targets added to the list.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Sunday, September 13, 2026 - 06:43 pm: Edit

Garth: They are totally dependent on rail. As for warehouse loading docks, why not just hit the warehouse. Don't get fancy about shooting him the hand; shoot him centre of mass.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Sunday, September 13, 2026 - 06:44 pm: Edit

Mike G
1. I like KGB HQ.
2. I like telephone exchanges. Also microwave relay stations.
3. Baltisk, good target, but could start a war.
4. I like the Ukrainian aircraft carrier.
5. We discussed this, glad you agree.

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Sunday, September 13, 2026 - 08:28 pm: Edit

Good targeting does not mean that Russia surrenders today. That is not a reasonable expectation.

The refinery hits . . . they still matter tremendously. Russia typically repairs its refineries. That's why they need to be hit again and again and again. I see on Wikipedia they've hit the Ryazan refinery nine times. Tuapse eleven times, but that one they really did finally knock out.

Just today I see the headline:

"Trump calls on Ukraine to halt strikes on Russian diesel fuel, saying attacks are causing a shortage"

If it didn't matter, he wouldn't commit that stupidity.

Both American parties think their elections are more important than the war. Biden committed similar stupidity when he was in.

When they have more drones, they will hit more targets. They are indeed ramping up. And just as a for-example, the Canada drone deal will help them ramp up further.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Sunday, September 13, 2026 - 08:46 pm: Edit

To the US, our elections do indeed matter more than Ukraine's War.

The point is to force the war to end, not have fun bombing Russia. What can Ukraine target to end the war more quickly? THAT is the question. Nobody said anything about stopping the current campaigns, but they aren't going to win the war this year. I want peace for Christmas.

Trump is being stupid. He wants a deal with Putin on broader issues and Ukraine is in the way. He wants another feather on his peace pipe. Putin could end the war any time.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Sunday, September 13, 2026 - 09:30 pm: Edit

When I was in the Army, we were expecting to get overrun by Soviet hordes and everything we trained for was based on defensive strategies. The targeting priority was "whatever they only have one of, then whatever they have only a few of.

So we were trained to look for things like the one tank in ten that had command radio antennae. The one tank in ten that had a mine-clearing plow. The one tank in ten that was really something only superficially a tank.

We need to find out what Russia only has a few of.

Absent that, we've hit their refineries and that shouldn't stop but we would be better to give some attention to thinks they have ten of, rather than the next on the list of 100.

Jessica's list of seven bridges seems more likely to achieve victory for Christmas than hitting the refineries a fourth and fifth time.

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Sunday, September 13, 2026 - 10:17 pm: Edit

Obviously Ukraine wants victory as fast as possible. I fully trust them to work on that.

The US establishment thought Russia would take Kyiv in days. They understand their war better than we do.

Because of Putin's history of breaking deals, many, and probably most, Ukrainians are more interested in forcing a victory than in forcing an "end" with some kind of deal. It is weirdly comforting that Putin won't settle for a ceasefire in place. That would be a bad outcome, as Putin could obviously break the deal at a moment of his choosing.