Special Operations: Ukrainian Overseas Scouts
September 18, 2026: Ukrainians have always been very entrepreneurial and eager to develop new products and get them into production. In 2022, many of these local entrepreneurs began obtaining, modifying, and building drones for the war effort. With the war nearly over, Ukrainians are seeking and finding more foreign partners to set up manufacturing or marketing operations in Ukraine. Foreign clients want Ukrainians with combat experience to visit and share their experience and expertise with local military units and drone manufacturers. The foreigners pay for this advice, knowing that no one, not even the Russians, is more adept at manufacturing, deploying, and operating drones. The drone experts also explain, and sometimes demonstrate, how long-range drones can destroy enemy economic and military operations deep in enemy territory.
Another service Ukraine provides is to test new foreign military equipment or weapons. If Ukrainian troops accept these items and use them successfully in combat, these combat-tested products are easier to sell. Even if these items fail, the manufacturer can fix the problems and pay for another test. Meanwhile, now in its fifth year, the Russian war in Ukraine is stumbling towards peace. This is happening despite Russian claims that its economy, now a wartime economy, is strong and that Western sanctions are a minor nuisance. The Russian claims are illusions because the Russian economy was transformed, distorted, and weakened by the war and the American and European sanctions, which cost the economy about half a trillion dollars. Despite that, Russia still has the world's fifth-largest economy, behind the United States, China, India, and Japan.
Because of the war, government spending went from 34 percent of GDP in 2021 to 40 percent last year. Another financial problem was that Russian banks could no longer use the international fund transfer SWIFT system. Russia had to cobble together a smaller system with countries it still traded with. Manufacturing became more expensive because the sanctions prevented Russia from getting the electronic components it needed for many of its products. Substitutes could usually be obtained through smuggling or special arrangements with China that let Russia plausibly deny providing sanctioned goods. If China was caught aiding Russia, it would face sanctions.
There were other deceptions. Russia claimed that its economy grew by 12-14 percent between 2020 and 2024 when it shrank by eight percent. Russia also claimed its merchant shipping was still operational. What Russia was reluctant to dwell on were the additional sanction costs of insurance, ships seized, and oil lost.
In Ukraine, Russia could no longer provide enough new recruits to replace heavier losses. By 2026, the Ukrainians were unquestionably on the offensive. Russia has lost 1.4 million soldiers killed, disabled, and missing. Russia lost most of its modern armored vehicles, and it will take four or more years to rebuild. Casualties are a more serious problem, with badly wounded soldiers sent back into combat. Military police will go to the homes of wounded soldiers and take these men back to the combat zone.
Wounded and disabled troops cannot launch attacks or provide an effective defense. Russian commanders thought drones were still an effective weapon, but Ukrainians developed more defensive drone interceptors and superior attack drones. Long-range Ukrainian drones attacked Moscow and St. Petersburg, as well as the oil storage and refining infrastructure between the Ukrainian border and those two Russian cities. Factories building components for drones, missiles, and air defense systems were also hit. The last few years of Ukrainian attacks on Russian air defenses made it easier for Ukrainian attacks to be made unopposed. The Ukrainians refrained from attacking Moscow on May 9th during the World War II Victory Day parade. The Russians reduced the size of that parade, and no combat vehicles were present, an unprecedented decision.
The personnel, equipment, and capability losses have eliminated any chance of Russia defeating the Ukrainians. Russian leader Vladimir is left with one major decision: how to explain this failure to the Russian people. He’ll come up with something to say, and it will be a painful speech to deliver.
FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, September 21, 2026 - 03:36 pm: Edit

Air Defense: Pulsar Lite Downs Drones
September 21, 2026: The U.S. Marine Corps’ new AAVs (Amphibious Assault Vehicles) will be equipped with Pulsar Lite EW (Electronic Warfare) signal jammers to defeat drone navigation systems. Deliveries of the Pulsar Lite system will begin in a few months. Some are expected to show up in Ukraine next year, if not sooner. Pulsar Lite will join dozens of other jammers and EW systems already used in Ukraine. Pulsar Lite differs in that it weighs only 11 kg and can be used on drones, mounted in vehicles or helicopters, or carried by infantry and placed on the ground, then turned on when needed.
The Marines appreciate that Pulsar can detect and jam drones over three kilometers away. Most of these drones are FPV (first-person view) models that let the operator see where the drone is going. Another surveillance drone records the attack by an FPV drone, which destroys itself along with its Russian target. Because drone operators and their assistants operate from bunkers, they suffer few casualties. This makes it possible for women soldiers to operate drones. Women also serve on the front lines as snipers and medical personnel. Public opinion is hostile to women getting killed in combat, even though many women volunteer for these assignments. About 200 female soldiers have been killed so far. Women currently comprise ten percent of Ukrainian military personnel.
Some drone operators work from civilian vehicles because they must move their drone control equipment to different points on the front line to stay within radio range of their drones. In some sectors of the front, drones inflict 90 percent of the casualties, but overall drones are responsible for about 80 percent of Russian casualties.
Both Russian and Ukrainian forces are sending in quadcopter drones controlled by soldiers using FPV goggles to see what the drone's day/night camera can see. Most FPV drones carry half a kilogram of explosives, so they can instantly turn into flying bombs that fly into a target and detonate. This is an awesome and debilitating weapon when used in large numbers over the combat zone. If a target isn’t moving or requires more explosive power than the drones can supply, one of the drone operators can call in artillery, rocket, or missile fire, or even an airstrike. Larger, fixed-wing drones are used for long-range operations against targets over a thousand kilometers inside Russia.
A major limitation to expanding drone operations was the need for trained drone operators. These operators need dozens of hours of training before they can operate these drones, and even more hours of actual use before they can make the most of the system.
These small drones can complete their missions most of the time, whether it is a one-way attack or a reconnaissance and surveillance mission. Recon missions are usually survivable, allowing the drone to be reused. These drones constantly perform surveillance, meaning both sides commit enough drones to maintain constant surveillance over a portion of the front line, extending at least a few kilometers into enemy territory.
This massive use of FPV-armed drones has revolutionized warfare in Ukraine, and both sides are producing as many as they can. Ukrainian drone proliferation began when many individual Ukrainians, or small teams of them, designed and built drones. These drones became candidates for widespread use and mass production. This proliferation of designers and manufacturers drove rapid evolution in drone capabilities and uses. Those who could not keep up were less successful in combat and suffered higher losses. Each month, Ukrainian factories and home workshops build several hundred thousand drones, along with substantial imports from European nations that have begun producing Ukrainian-designed drones.
Military leaders in other nations have noted this and are scrambling to equip their own forces with drones. Not having enough to match the enemy's numbers in a part of the front puts you at a serious disadvantage there. These drones are still evolving in design and use, and they're becoming more effective and essential.
One countermeasure that often works for a while is electronic jamming of the drones’ control signals. Drone guidance systems are constantly modified or upgraded to cope with this. Most drones have flight control software that sends them back to their takeoff point to land for later use when control signals are jammed. Drones programmed to home in on the jamming signal can attack ground jammers. Countermeasures can be overcome, and the most popular current one is to control a drone via a fiber-optic cable.

FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, September 21, 2026 - 03:37 pm: Edit

Surface Forces : China Invades Taiwan's EEZ
September 21, 2026: China continues its efforts to take control of offshore areas bordering China, the Philippines, South Korea, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, and any other islands or coastal areas it considers worth going after. Currently, China is placing a 16MW wind turbine barge 80 kilometers from Taiwan-controlled Pratas Island. This comes after decades of Chinese efforts to build military bases in the South China Sea, many of them in waters that are recognized as within the Filipino EEZ.
One of the oldest disputes is in the South China Sea, where China claims large areas of the Philippines' EEZ (Exclusive Economic Zone), which extends 360 kilometers from the nearest land area . The Philippines lacks the military power to effectively oppose Chinese territorial claims.
Three of the most contested areas are the Spratly Islands, Lincourt Rocks, and the Diaoyu/Senkakus Islands
The Spratlys are a group of about 100 islets, atolls, and reefs that total only about 5 square kilometers of land but sprawl across about 410,000 square kilometers of the South China Sea. Set amid some of the world's most productive fishing grounds, the islands are believed to have enormous oil and gas reserves. Several nations claim overlapping parts of the group. China, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam currently occupy about 45 of the islands with small numbers of military personnel. Brunei has established a fishing zone in the area but has made no territorial claims. From time to time, small-scale confrontations and occasional clashes have occurred between some of these countries over ownership of the islands. In November of 2002, most of these countries signed the "Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea," a vague agreement that has eased tensions but is not actually legally binding. In March of 2005, the national oil companies of China, the Philippines, and Vietnam signed a joint accord to cooperate in exploring for oil in the islands. Called Taiping Island by the Taiwanese, Ita Aba is one of the largest of the group, at about 489,600 sq. meters. Taiwan has controlled it since the mid-1950s, and it has largely served as a way station for fishermen. Vietnam also claims the island, calling it Thai Binh. Taiwan has long maintained a small military presence on the island and eventually built an airfield. Vietnam, which controls the largest group of islands, has lodged protests, as has the Philippines, since it also claims the island. The Vietnamese, who have refurbished an old South Vietnamese airstrip on Big Spratly Island, have protested the action, citing it as a violation of the 2002 declaration. Taiwan is not a signatory and is likely to ignore the protest. China, which claims the entire archipelago, either keeps quiet or backs Taiwan.
Koreans call the Liancourt Rocks the Dokdo Islands, and the Japanese call them the Takeshima Islands. They comprise two rocky islets and about 32 rocky outcrops, with a total land area of 175,000 sq meters, and lie in the Sea of Japan (known as the East Sea to the Koreans), about 140 kilometers off Korea and roughly the same distance from Japan. South Korea occupies the islands and maintains a small coast guard station and a lighthouse there. Dokdo sits in the middle of a rich fishing ground, and thus its ownership determines who gets to harvest the fish. The situation is complicated by the extreme hostility Koreans traditionally feel toward Japan. Recent assertions by Japanese leaders - including their ambassador to South Korea - that the island is Japanese (and continued Japanese insensitivity about its colonial role in Korea) have led to periodic massive street protests across Korea since February of 2005. The next month, the South Korean Air Force scrambled four F-5 fighters to intercept a Cessna from a Japanese newspaper that was approaching the islands. In June, South Korean and Japanese patrol boats played chicken around the islands, and recently the Chief of Staff of the South Korean Air Force, Gen. Kim Sung Il, personally flew an F-15K fighter out to the islands to assert Korean sovereignty. Japan has not yet responded to this move but is expected to send several aircraft shortly.
The Diaoyu/Senkakus Islands. Japan has a similar dispute with China over a group of uninhabited islets in the East China Sea, known to China and Taiwan as the Diaoyu Islands and to Japan as the Senkaku Islands. As with Dokdo, the area is rich in fish, and, as with Spratlys, is reputed to have extensive natural gas reserves. The Japanese Coast Guard has detained over a dozen Taiwanese fishing boats in the area, releasing them only after stiff fines. This has led to massive demonstrations by Taiwanese fishermen, including, in one instance, a massive flotilla of over 60 fishing boats that brazenly violated the Japanese claim. In addition, the Taiwanese government, normally very reluctant to criticize Japan (a potential ally against China), dispatched its defense minister and a delegation of members of parliament aboard two missile frigates on a tour of the disputed area.
FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, September 21, 2026 - 03:38 pm: Edit

September 21 is International Day of Peace

It is also the day for Feast of St. Matthew the Apostle, Patron of Salerno, Tax Collectors, Bankers, Accountants, and Civil Servants

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Wednesday, September 23, 2026 - 03:27 pm: Edit

Russia: More Sabotage in Europe
September 23, 2026: Over the last few years, a growing number of sabotage efforts have targeted economic, military, and infrastructure targets. Police and intelligence investigators are finding more evidence that Russia is behind this. Russian operatives, either diplomats or freelancers, have been discovered hiring anyone needing cash and seeming to have the skills to do the dirty work. Some of these saboteurs have been caught, but none could provide conclusive evidence that they were working for Russia.
While Russia has increased its sabotage and destabilization efforts against the NATO nations, the results have been meager. Successes have been few and disappointments many. The invasion caused formerly neutral Sweden and Finland to join NATO. Now Russia faces a wall of NATO nations from the Arctic to the Mediterranean. Russia’s only allies are threadbare North Korea and a dying Iran. Russia is expected to obtain more missiles from Iran, but now the missiles Iran has left are being fired, without much effect, at Israel and American forces seeking to end nearly half a century of Iranian sponsorship of Islamic terrorists and mischief in general.
Meanwhile, Russia, unable to subdue Ukraine with military force, concluded that the most vulnerable aspect of the Ukrainian war effort was the support received from NATO countries. For the last three years, Russia has been attacking NATO nations clandestinely with disinformation and sabotage using a combination of specialized diplomats and sleeper agents who have long been living in Europe. The sleeper agents usually don’t carry out the sabotage themselves; instead, they hire criminal networks in Europe to do it. European police and security agencies were aware of these plans and, when they detected the sabotage, they sought the criminals and arrested some. Some of these men confirmed the Russian source of these attacks. With these Russian efforts no longer secret, Russian recruiting efforts were crippled, but not halted, because of fears that anyone who worked for Russia would be quickly identified and arrested. Since Russia invaded Ukraine, public opinion in Europe has been hostile to Russia. Undeterred, Russian sleepers faded deeper into the background and used one or more layers of intermediaries to identify criminal groups willing to carry out the sabotage if the financial rewards were high enough.
Russia now depends more on legitimate channels like its embassy personnel and overseas members of the Russian Orthodox Church to assist, often involuntarily, to help Mother Russia complete its mission to self-destruct by 2027. That’s not an official mission, but the one Russia has earned. The economic sanctions and continued resistance by Ukrainian forces have crippled the Russian military and led its economy on a path that eventually leads to collapse.
Undeterred, Russia continues its sabotage and destabilization efforts in NATO Europe. There have been a few railway accidents that, upon reexamination, turned out to be Russian-sponsored acts of sabotage. Another favorite is jamming GPS signals; this remains a problem in several European countries. There was also a thwarted plot to assassinate the head of German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall. Russia denies any involvement, but the evidence of Russian complicity grows with each incident. In this respect, Russia is at war with European nations, and these attacks have led to economic sanctions. Russia sees this as an attack on its economy, and its coordinated sabotage campaign in Western Europe is its response.
Russia had sleeper agents in Ukraine since the 1990s, after Ukraine became an independent state in 1991. The sleepers were not fully activated until Russia realized its 2022 invasion was faltering. There was no public announcement of this, but by 2024 the Ukrainian security service, or SSU, detected several Russian agents operating in Kherson, which is near the Black Sea northwest of Crimea. Three Russian spies were arrested, and apparently none of these men admitted to being sleepers or knowing anything about sleepers. That was not unusual, as sleepers and the agents they hire locally know that if they disclose nothing, Russia will do whatever it can to free these loyal agents.
Each arrested man appeared to operate independently, without knowing about other agents. This was true, but these men also knew the sleeper network existed and said nothing about it. The Russian sleepers and spies were working jobs, like driving a cab, that let them get around without raising suspicion. Interrogators did discover that the Russian agents were currently seeking locations and the status of Ukrainian air defense systems and other military targets, especially those difficult to identify using aerial reconnaissance. Earlier, the SSU had disrupted an espionage network seeking the location of Ukrainian HIMARS missile launcher vehicles. These are kept hidden because the Russians fear these mobile missile launchers and the damage they do to Russian artillery units and supply storage sites.
Eastern Ukraine always had a large Russian population because during the 1930s Russians were brought into eastern Ukraine to replace all the Ukrainians who died during the Holodomor or Great Famine. The Soviet government caused the famine by exporting nearly all grain produced in that part of the country for several years. This was part of a Soviet plan to raise additional foreign currency to pay for importing Western machinery needed to industrialize Russia. This plan worked, and leader Josef Stalin saw the dead Ukrainians as necessary to enable Russia to build factories for producing commercial and military products, including tanks and the new multiple-cell rocket launchers they had recently invented.
Now, nearly a century later, there is another war because Russian forces invaded independent Ukraine in 2022. Stalin would have seen this as a civil war, but times have changed. Some things going on today Stalin would see as familiar. For example, the post-1991 Russian government lost most of its destabilization skills. A century ago, the new communist government in Russia came to power because of the communists’ ability to subvert their opponents and eliminate opposition without a lot of bloodshed. A more recent destabilization effort involved an effort to destabilize countries in Africa to distract attention from the mass media coverage of the Russian campaign in Ukraine. Russian mercenaries and spies are busy trying to cause as much distracting chaos as possible in the rest of the world. This includes covert operations in Europe, mercenaries operating throughout Africa, establishing links with Moslem organizations in Central Asia and Europe, and blowing up Western airliners.
Russia believes that conventional warfare waged in Ukraine and the unconventional warfare carried out worldwide complement each other. Russian efforts to destabilize Africa are supposed to divert attention and resources headed to Ukraine. To make this happen, Russian spies, assassins, and propagandists continue their efforts.
Revolution and subversion efforts worldwide have long been used by the Soviet Union and later Russia to exploit whatever opportunities were available to disrupt and diminish support for groups hostile to Russia, while encouraging local leaders who support Russian objectives. For example, in 2016, Russian operatives recruited criminal gangs to cause trouble in the tiny Balkan state of Montenegro and disrupt efforts by that country to join NATO. That attempt failed when several foreign agents and pro-coup Montenegrin politicians were detected, arrested, prosecuted, and imprisoned.
In February 2022, Russian agents tried to organize widespread protests that would justify Russian military intervention, aided by pro-Russian factions in the Ukrainian government. These factions were supposed to enable pro-Russian groups in the Ukrainian parliament and government to seize power. That effort failed because the Russians overestimated the number of pro-Russian officials in the Ukrainian government, and the Russian invasion did not immediately succeed, as the Russians expected. Too many Ukrainians were willing and able to fight and defeat the Russian invaders.
The Russian FSB is the post-Soviet version of the KGB but has shown a shortage of skills and an inability to match the KGB's performance in its prime. The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 was made possible, in part, because the KGB also lost its ability to get things done, mostly because its most effective personnel began focusing on how to obtain hard currency instead. By the end of 2022, military failures in Ukraine gave the FSB more political and financial support to spend more time, money, and effort on its sleeper program. The FSB had to call on retired agents who had served during the pre-1991 Soviet Union era. Many Russian sleepers were exposed in the 1990s because Soviet archives were open to foreign historians, some of them secretly working for Western intelligence agencies. Many Russian sleepers were identified and arrested. That ended Western researchers' access to KGB archives. Russia considers arresting their sleepers in Europe and North America a hostile act. The Russians quietly began rebuilding and expanding their sleeper network. Meanwhile, the Russians arrested innocent Western visitors to Russia and kept them in prison until they could be exchanged for arrested Russian sleepers.
Western intelligence agencies now spend a lot of time trying to identify sleepers and pay more attention to acts of sabotage. These acts are often disguised as accidents or the result of a local feud. For the last two years, sleepers have become prime suspects. When investigators pursue whoever was responsible for the acts of sabotage, sleepers are often at the top of the list of possible perpetrators.
FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Wednesday, September 23, 2026 - 03:28 pm: Edit

Russia: Endgame in Ukraine
September 23, 2026: Russia is losing its war in Ukraine, and leader Vladimir Putin's has spent up to $2 trillion on the war in Ukraine. It gets worse because that spending, plus the 1.5 million Russians killed or wounded and over a million military-age men leaving the country to avoid dying in Ukraine, created other problems. One was a labor shortage, partially offset by lower demand for consumer goods. One government economist, who pointed out these problems, was fired. Putin didn’t want to know how bad it was, so his aides now keep him in the dark.
To run the government, Putin also depended on a dozen or so oligarchs to run, and often own, controlling interests in key portions of the economy. The oligarchs consider Vladimir Putin a friend and try to let him know what is really going on without risking that friendship. Sometimes it’s not easy being an oligarch, especially when you can’t tell your good friend Vladimir that the economy is tanking and the country is stumbling towards another revolution.
Currently, the annual Russian GDP is $2.6 trillion. Russian spending on civilian needs, like infrastructure, roads, and much else, has been reduced, or sometimes suspended, to pay for the war. It has reached the point where many Russians, including media commentators, are talking about the possibility of another revolution like the one in 1917 that resulted in the Soviet Union. That process cost Russia about ten million dead soldiers and civilians. World War II was even worse, with 29 million dead, about 13 percent of the pre-war population. Most Russians are unhappy with their government, but do not see another 1917 as a realistic cure for the current mess.
President Vladimir Putin wants to make greater use of the $1.8 trillion held in bank accounts by Russian businesses and households, arguing that the money should serve the state’s interests rather than remain in private financial institutions. The oligarchs and government economists carefully explained how that would make things worse.
The current crisis did not happen by plan. Russia has refused to face the fact that when the Soviet Union broke up in 1991, half the population willingly moved to the 14 new countries, and most of them were enthusiastic about ending the Soviet Union and its domination. The Soviet Union was basically the Russian Empire cobbled together by the old czarist monarchy over more than two centuries of conquest and expansion. Thus, half the Soviet Union population felt like conquered people, not part of any union. The Soviet Union dissolved quickly in 1990-91 because over half the population really wanted it to happen and had wanted it for a long time.
Another issue Russian leader Vladimir Putin ignored was that many ethnic Russians were tired of supporting a lot of the less affluent conquered people and were fed up with the economic failures of communism. Former Soviet Union citizens who regret the breakup tend to be older and disillusioned by how corruption and bad leadership made post-Soviet life less wonderful than expected. Many younger Russians are more realistic, having never lived as adults in the Soviet Union and being intimately familiar with the fact that freedom isn’t free and democracy is difficult to maintain. Putin gained some support for his new empire by using his control of Russian mass media to push the idea that any economic problems inside Russia were not the fault of Russians but evil foreigners, especially the United States. That worked until the Ukraine misadventure, when these younger fans noted that none of the other former portions of the Soviet Union answered Putin’s call to send troops to share the glory in Ukraine. Not even Belarus, considered the most pro-Russia of the 14 new nations formed by half of the Soviet population that were free of Russia since 1991. These former Soviet provinces were more pragmatic and accurate in assessing Russian performance in Syria and Libya, as well as Vladimir Putin’s imperial ambitions.
For younger Russians, there are more economic opportunities than under communism. While Russia lost half its population in 1991, it retained most of its valuable natural resources, like oil and natural gas, which meant more prosperity for post-Soviet Russians. In Soviet times, legal economic opportunities were limited, and almost everyone was equally poor. The Putin solution is a police state with a relatively free market. In the 20th century, this became known as fascism, and that describes most of the foes the Soviet Union and its western allies faced and defeated during World War II. Vladimir Lenin, the leader of the Communist Party that won power in Russia after World War I, experimented with this idea in the early 1920s, but then he died. His successor, Josef Stalin, faced opposition from many communist leaders who agreed with Lenin's idea of more economic freedom to build a more productive economy. Stalin was concerned about power, not prosperity, and used that to depict his many real or suspected political opponents as traitors to the communist cause and killed or exiled most of them before World War II.
Stalin died eight years after World War II ended, and his successors agreed on purging (often killing) all the officials considered true believers in Stalin’s brutal methods. The successors ignored or were not aware of how inefficient the pure communist command (state-controlled) economy was. That made it worse, and by the 1980s it was obvious to Russian leaders that they were going bankrupt and unable to sustain the Soviet state much longer. The Russian people were suffering a lot more than their corrupt leaders, and by 1990, they were refusing to go along with the communist leadership.
This is a common pattern in dictatorships, including monarchies, and Soviet leaders, like the Tsar who was overthrown in 1917, did not realize how bad their situation was until it was too late. Putin turned the post-Soviet democracy into a police state pretending to be a democracy, with him as the leader-for-life. His failures with the economy, democracy, and now Ukraine leave Putin with more enemies than allies at all levels of Russian society, including the government and security forces. Putin still retains the power to order the use of nuclear weapons, but no fading dictator ever tried to use these weapons to retain power, and the Russian nukes literally cannot be used by one person. Bureaucracies, procedures, and safeguards must be followed to use the nukes. As was demonstrated during the 1980s, there are Russians in that bureaucracy who will not automatically carry out orders to use nukes. Russians at all levels are talking about this, most of them openly. Those closer to Putin must be discreet to survive. They want to survive, and most Russians agree, and Putin has become one of the obstacles to Russian security rather than a trusted guardian of it.
FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Wednesday, September 23, 2026 - 03:29 pm: Edit

Winning: Price of Peace Is Depopulation
September 22, 2026: Years, sometimes decades, of peace have an impact on nations. Prosperity increases, but so does depopulation. The quantity and quality of people in East Asia are changing. The populations of China, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, and Russia are aging and shrinking, while India, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Australia continue to grow.
Russia has a population of 144 million, which is stagnant or declining. Currently, Russia is losing population because of its war in Ukraine, where the fighting has left at least 1.5 million Russians dead, disabled, or missing, plus another million or more military-age men fleeing the country to avoid being mobilized into the army and killed in Ukraine. The Russian birth rate is also declining because of the war's economic impact. Economic sanctions imposed by NATO countries, which represent half of global GDP at $111 trillion, cut Russia off from its usual import sources. NATO countries now include Russian oil sales in the sanctions. Russia can sell that oil elsewhere, but at a lower price. All these problems together mean the Russian birth rate has fallen to 1.4 children. It needs to be 2.1 for the population to remain stable. The current birth rate is the lowest in 200 years and liable to get worse the longer Russians are fighting, dying, or deserting in Ukraine.
China has an official population of 1.42 billion and an actual population of 800 million or less. The Chinese government went to great lengths to conceal the negative population impact of the one-child policy and covid19. But reports from tourists and commercial travelers indicated far fewer Chinese than the government claimed. Satellite photos showed fewer lights in major cities, and many lights in smaller towns were now absent. Unless living in the dark at night became a new Chinese custom, the lower population estimates are apparently accurate.
Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea have declining populations because of prosperity and comfortable living conditions. Worldwide, industrialized countries face lower birth rates for this reason. Japan's birth rate is 1.15, Taiwan’s is 0.89, and South Korea’s is 0.75. Other industrialized countries are experiencing similar birth rates. Italy’s is 1.18; Germany's is 1.62. The United States is no exception, with a birth rate of 1.58.
India has a population of 1.46 billion. That’s nearly 18 percent of the world population. That is changing as India's birth rate of 1.9 is also below the 2.1 replacement rate. The Philippines' birth rate is also 1.9. Vietnam’s is 1.4, and Australia's is 1.8. Some nations have high birth rates. Most are in Africa, where the overall birth rate is 3.1. Worldwide, the rate is 1.75.
This will affect economies, military capabilities, and relationships with major trading and military partners. Two nations matter most for trade. The United States had total exports and imports valued at $5.2 trillion. China did $6.1 trillion in trade. Trade is critical to China, whose middle class is now declining, with the rate of decline increasing. Disrupt economic stability, and you have chaos and maybe even another civil war. China builds most of the world’s commercial shipping, and it has the world’s largest navy, at least in terms of ship numbers. The United States still has a larger fleet in terms of total tonnage, 11 aircraft carriers, and over a century of experience. China may threaten war, but starting one would be a political and economic catastrophe for China. Peace through prosperity is more than a catchy slogan.
The major problem in China is that they are running out of people, new births, and Chinese willing to get married. The population is shrinking and is now somewhere between 800 and 1200 million. The official claim is 1400 million and admits that it is down from 1500 million 11-12 years ago. These calculations use openly available economic data. The fertility rate, or number of children born to each woman, is among the lowest in the world, and nothing the government can do seems able to change it. Chinese women no longer accept the traditional role of wife and mother. Many refuse to marry Chinese men, instead seeking American or European spouses. Americans are preferred because they help with childcare and housework. Most Chinese women don’t have access to foreign men and simply stay single.
China continues trying to make the best of a bad situation they cannot seem to control: a shrinking population, a workforce that is shrinking even faster, and markets for its exports leveling off. Workforce shrinkage raises dire doubts about Chinese export statistics, as remaining where they were six years ago implies an unbelievable rate of labor productivity increases.
These three factors mean China’s Ponzi-scheme economy has reached its limits, with substantial declines now underway. Other East Asian nations have similar problems, though not all involve ongoing Ponzi-scheme financial systems, after experiencing a sustained economic boom that moved much of the population into the middle class. China too has prospered and given several hundred million Chinese people prosperous middle-class lives. This is unprecedented in Chinese history. One downside of this prosperity is that couples have fewer children. When families are poor, they have more children because that is how people can create some support for old age. Children do that, and without savings, children have traditionally supported their elderly parents. With this prosperity, that traditional form of old-age care is eroding.
A prosperous China is now suffering from this, with fewer babies born each year to replace those dying. The current Japanese birth rate is 1.39. In 2008, China’s birth rate had fallen to 1.8 births per woman, well below the replacement rate of 2.1. It has since declined to .7 and, worse, the now-repealed One-Child policy fatally reduced the future number of females of child-bearing age. As a result, the absolute number of new Chinese births for the rest of the century will be a small fraction of what China’s overall population would otherwise indicate. China’s total population began a rapid collapse and reached 800-1200 million in the 2020s instead of the predicted 2030s.
The biggest current problem is the growth of retirees with a steadily shrinking number of workers supporting them. Proposals to allow more births run into arguments about limited resources. Japan is far ahead on this population-decline curve, and China does not want to join it, but no one has yet proposed an acceptable alternative. The impact of fewer births in urban areas over two decades ago is showing up in growing shortages of skilled labor. The cost of manufacturing high-tech items is rising, forcing Chinese manufacturers to move more factories to countries with cheaper labor. The military is giving the troops a raise, especially the technicians. Otherwise, it can’t recruit them or keep them. South Korea already has a birth rate of 1.11, which is lower than Japan’s. The American birth rate is 1.66, but most Western nations have lower rates. For Europe as a whole, the rate is .98.
Chinese manufacturing activity has been shrinking since 2022, and that is one of several indicators that the Chinese economy is in trouble. Infrastructure failures are also widespread, with provincial power outages increasingly common. The problems are largely self-inflicted. The shrinking of Chinese economic activity results from several economic problems, including consumers not resuming their pre-COVID-19 spending habits. Less consumer spending was not expected. None of this should be a surprise because China has faced similar problems before, just not all at once. Paying attention to Chinese history is a respected popular tradition for basing major decisions on. Chinese leader Xi Jinping came to power in 2012 and initially concentrated on reinforcing government control of the military. Xi, like most Chinese leaders, pays more attention to history than foreign counterparts do. Chinese military history spans thousands of years, while Westerners, in most cases, have only a few centuries of it and don’t pay as much attention to past experience as China does.
Chinese economic history over those long periods did not change much either. It was largely feudal, and since 1910, China has tried to develop a form of government capable of handling economic problems more effectively. Xi Jinping has had some success, and the Chinese banking sector has recently improved enough to help revive the economy. The economy is still in bad shape, with too much debt, and many foreign companies pulling out of China while too many Chinese companies are barely staying in business, with a growing number slipping into insolvency and bankruptcy.

FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Wednesday, September 23, 2026 - 03:30 pm: Edit

Information Warfare: Taiwan Tests Internet Loss
September 22, 2026: Last month, the Taiwan government conducted a test that reduced Internet speeds to the point where phones, computers, store checkout systems, and many more were useless for 30 minutes. The drill began with air raid sirens and ended when the sirens sounded again. These Internet disruptions occurred in fourteen different parts of the island nation. While mobile Internet was shut down, landline Internet and Wi-Fi were not affected. Many Taiwanese software and communications engineers could quickly create and implement stopgap measures.
But there is another potential problem. While Taiwan would continue to have access to the SpaceX communications satellite array overhead, this network would not be able to handle the heavy wartime data load. Taiwan depends on a network of subsea cables for telecommunications, and officials have said commercial ships linked to China have been detected cutting undersea cables linking Taiwan and some of its outer islands, as well as the worldwide network of these cables. The Chinese know that if they can suppress or temporarily disrupt enough Taiwanese communications, the military and civilians would be demoralized, and some might panic.
To address possible civil disorder, Taiwan regularly conducts civil defense drills to test emergency services' ability to deploy in a timely and effective manner. Civilians also face simulated emergencies and learn how to respond effectively. The military plays a role with its annual Ten-Day Drills that remind Taiwanese that the government is preparing for the worst, even though many civilians believe China would never go to war to annex Taiwan.
Taiwanese public opinion has long been divided, but if China threatens to invade, enough Taiwanese take the threat seriously and plan accordingly. Part of the annual military drill seems meant to reassure the public that the island can defend itself. This includes police training to prevent Chinese commandos from killing key government officials as a prelude to an invasion. The government schedules these drills, so they do not interrupt Taiwanese people's daily routines.
Most Taiwanese agree that these drills are necessary. A Chinese invasion is considered a strong possibility, and the government has expanded publicity for the 2026 civilian exercises. Government officials also emphasized that China has expanded its invasion fleet of warships, landing vessels, and missiles that could support the invasion. China continues to want to absorb Taiwan peacefully but realizes that a large-scale and risky invasion is more likely. China cannot afford to fail if they invade. Taiwan has powerful allies in the region, including the American Pacific Fleet and forces from Japan and South Korea.
A major CyberWar threat comes from China. Although it is nearly impossible to determine how much work is done by private companies or individuals and how much is state-sponsored, experts point to China as the undisputed leader in global cyber warfare. China is believed to have hacked the Australian intelligence apparatus, Indian government networks, and departments within the Canadian government. The U.S. suspects China of both sabotage and espionage of American defense networks, private corporations, industrial organizations, research facilities and industrial assets. Congressional panels have called China the greatest existing threat to America's digital security.
Taiwanese and Chinese CyberWar efforts against each other have supplied both nations with information about their opponents' plans and capabilities. The Chinese are also eager to know what Taiwan’s most powerful ally, the United States, is capable of and how Chinese hackers can destroy or disrupt American potential. These efforts gave China classified data about American dams. This was part of a Chinese effort to collect detailed data on American infrastructure and other economic targets to support preparations for Internet-based attacks on these facilities in wartime, or anytime. China also used spies inside America.
The U.S. government has known about this Internet threat for a long time and has been trying to develop a way to respond to a serious cyberwar attack in which the attacker does not reveal who they are. China could use the data it receives from its cyberwar operation for such an attack.
Early on, American officials created lists of the types of attacks that would qualify as an "act of war" and thus warrant a violent response. That would be easy if the attack caused substantial physical damage. This was the case in Iran in 2010, after the Stuxnet worm destroyed their uranium-enrichment centrifuges. Similar damage could be inflicted on electrical power systems, water and sanitation utilities, and certain industrial facilities, such as steelmaking, chemical, and refinery operations.
The big problem is proving that malicious software was inserted into a facility and caused damage. The big problem is proving who did it. While you can trace an attack, you can also, as the attacker, leave a false trail to another location (in another country). The Americans are apparently trying to establish widely accepted criteria for "network forensics" (investigating an attack and tracing who came from where, and for what purpose). At present, no such generally accepted criteria exist for proving who carried out a Cyber War attack.
The United States is apparently seeking to establish a method for identifying those who carry out these attacks and obtaining international recognition of their guilt, so America can then deliver some kind of retribution. This may involve nuclear weapons, but that would be a last resort. There are many other punishments that can be used, diplomatic, economic, and up through non-nuclear military actions. Meanwhile, the United States is hustling, at least in press releases, to improve American defenses against Cyber War class attacks. Catching Chinese spies and finding out what kind of data they were dealing in helps with this.

FYEO

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Wednesday, September 23, 2026 - 08:30 pm: Edit

Glad to see F.Y.E.O. Catching up to SFB BBS!

We have been talking about the decline of China’s population for months, and in spite of certain peoples dogged loyalty to the statistics published by the Chinese government, it is refreshing to see F.Y.E.O. Report the same 1.4 billion reduced down to 800 million since 2019.

It is also confirming that the china economic crisis is real, and, unless I am not understanding the F.Y.E.O. Report above, getting worse.

Specifically, it called the Chinese economy is a Ponsi scheme.

The problem is, the leading indicators (and remember, the government figures are not to be trusted,) so these indicators are based on external sources outside of China, and almost certainly or months and sometimes years after the actual event. The leading indicators are not pointing to a recovery.

The reason I am posting this to real world military topic is the possibility that at some point, the Chinese government is going to decide that they need a “short and victorious war” to bolster popular support of the government.

Taking Taiwan would fit the bill.

I hope China can fix the problems without resorting to war.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Wednesday, September 23, 2026 - 08:46 pm: Edit

I suspect that China would find that in Chinese the word 'taiwan' is spelled "u k r a i n e".

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Wednesday, September 23, 2026 - 08:50 pm: Edit

I would NOT easily accept any claim that China's economy is a "Ponzi scheme". They've built plenty of factories, airports, roads, bridges, power plants, and solar capacity, among other things.

These hard assets will not simply disappear.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Thursday, September 24, 2026 - 12:53 am: Edit

Actually a lot of those hard assets fall down or are demolished because corruption in the building code enforcement.

By Carl-Magnus Carlsson (Hardcore) on Thursday, September 24, 2026 - 01:35 am: Edit

"Israel is facing weeks of water shortages after an exceptional algae bloom crippled much of its desalination capacity, in a crisis scientists say was triggered when Israeli attacks destroyed much of Gaza’s wastewater infrastructure, causing a massive discharge of untreated sewage." -The Guardian

It is better to have a fight far away, than in your backyard.

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Thursday, September 24, 2026 - 06:41 am: Edit

William Jockusch:

I would not normally use Wikipedia as a source, but the definition has been used in a number of youtube videos:

“Corrupt engineering and construction practices in China have long been summarized by a specific Chinese phrase: "Tofu-dreg projects" (toufuzha gongcheng).

Coined in 1998 by former Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji to describe poorly built Yangtze River dykes, the term refers to infrastructure constructed with shoddy methods, extreme cost-cutting, and substandard materials—often facilitated by localized government corruption and a lack of independent checks and balances. The most blatant, high-profile examples of these corrupt practices spanning the last few decades include:

1. The 2008 Sichuan Earthquake School CollapsesDuring the devastating magnitude 7.9 earthquake in Sichuan province, more than 7,000 school buildings collapsed, killing thousands of children. Crucially, neighboring government buildings and wealthy residential complexes remained standing.

The Investigations revealed that local officials and state contractors heavily skimmed construction budgets. They bypassed safety standards by using poor-quality concrete mixed with too much sand and drastically reducing the amount of steel rebar required to reinforce the structures.

2. The Lotus Riverside Complex Collapse (Shanghai, 2009)In June 2009, a nearly completed 13-story residential building in Shanghai’s Lotus Riverside complex completely toppled over intact, killing a construction worker.

The dramatic failure was caused by gross negligence and a rush to maximize profits. Workers piled earth 10 meters high on one side of the building while excavating an underground garage on the other side, causing massive lateral pressure that snapped the hollow, substandard concrete pilings.

The subsequent probe exposed that local government officials held illegal stakes in the development company, allowing the project to bypass standard municipal safety reviews.

3. Harbin's Yangmingtan Bridge Ramp Collapse (2012)The Yangmingtan Bridge in Harbin was hailed as a massive engineering triumph. It spanned over 9 miles, cost roughly $300 million, and had its construction schedule cut in half by rushing workers. Just nine months after opening, a 330-foot approach ramp broke off entirely, plunging four trucks to the ground and killing three people.

An investigation into the project revealed rampant illegal subcontracting. The primary contractors pocketed massive portions of the budget and passed the actual construction work down to unqualified, lower-tier teams who substituted cheap, inferior materials to turn a profit.

4. The 2011 "Glue Repair" of the Nanjing BridgeIn 2011, public outcry erupted over a year-old bridge in Nanjing that had already developed severe structural cracks.

Rather than closing the bridge for proper structural reinforcement, the contracted construction team attempted to cover up the defects by filling the massive fissures with construction glue and painting over them. Local residents exposed the cover-up, prompting an investigation into how the original, faulty contract was awarded to an uncertified contractor through local bribery.

5. Systematic Corruption in Mega-Projects in China's infrastructure boom often takes place long before ground is even broken. Industry oversight regularly uncovers:

The "Slicing" Tendering Method: State-firm officials frequently accept bribes to illegally split major projects into smaller pieces to intentionally dodge the mandatory public tender process, funneling contracts directly to friends or relatives.

The Three Gorges Dam Embezzlement: While the main structure of the Three Gorges Dam is structurally sound, its construction era was plagued by nearly 100 high-profile corruption cases. Local officials embezzled massive chunks of resettlement funds intended for the millions of displaced residents, leading to the rapid, substandard construction of new relocation towns.”

These are but a few examples. The last paragraph was exposed in an article in The Guardian.

A couple of the other examples above were high lighted in PBS programs (I think it was Nova, but would have to verify that.)

I can provide other examples or direct you to the sources of the other examples I listed, if it would help.

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Thursday, September 24, 2026 - 08:26 am: Edit

I can easily believe there are a lot of projects that are screwed up. It happens in the US too, but we at least have government that has some degree of responsiveness to popular pressure.

But that's still a far cry from the whole country being about to fall apart.

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Thursday, September 24, 2026 - 08:49 am: Edit

William, look at the population figures.

A decline from 1.4 billion to 800 million is both significant and material.

Yes, the one child policy had a role, but does not explain the whole scale of the decline.

There have been anecdotal evidence of higher death tolls during COVID than has been reported by the Chinese government. No reliable number has been confirmed, but could be significant.

A more likely source of the nature of the population decline may have been false reporting of rural populations by provincial officials (governmental funding being based on populations) led to more corruption.

I just posted a few days ago a report documenting China is and has been in a deflationary cycle for twenty years. (Don’t know about you, but deflation has a number of characteristics, most of which are negative for people.)

There have been reports that the college graduates of 2024-5, and 2025-6 years are not finding jobs. Some reports placed the unemployment figures for graduates of those years at 80%.

If you have information that contradicts the published reports, I hope you would share it with us.

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Thursday, September 24, 2026 - 09:09 am: Edit

I was taking exception to the claim that China's economy is a "Ponzi scheme." That is overstating the case.

That said, I do agree that China has problems, including declining population, and a CCP that lies all the time, so it is difficult to know what is really true.

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Thursday, September 24, 2026 - 10:38 am: Edit

Got you.

I wish I could disagree with the F.Y.E.O. And other reports, but it is showing a pattern, and not a good one.

You might also consider the reports of “wealth transfers” out of China, and the reports that Chinese citizens are hoarding gold, silver and other precious metals.

People don’t liquidate assets and leave a country that they believe is stable and likely to remain as such.

Feel free to dispute the wealth flight issue, but the Chinese Government has recently tightened up their rules/laws concerning foreign ownership of some financial instruments by their citizens.

Love or hate the CCP, they do tend to act when they see issues or problems that affect them in negative ways.

You may think the “Ponzi Scheme” comment overstates the case… I am not sure that it is.

Lady Thatcher, former Prime Minister of The United Kingdom famously quipped that the problem with Socialism, is sooner or later, they run out of people to steal (read as tax) from.

In essence, it was the main reason the U.S.S.R. Failed. (Yes, there were many reasons, star wars, Afghanistan etc…) but ultimately, they were unable to keep up the pretense of expanded corruption, at the same time as they had localized failure of basic government services.

By Carl-Magnus Carlsson (Hardcore) on Thursday, September 24, 2026 - 11:51 am: Edit

"Australia’s defence minister confirmed on Tuesday that F-35 components had been mistakenly diverted to Hong Kong. The shipment contained parts from an Australian F-35 that UPS was transporting to the United States for inspection and possible repair or disposal. It travelled through South Korea and somehow ended up in Hong Kong."

Shankar Naryan, substack

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Thursday, September 24, 2026 - 02:13 pm: Edit

Support: Ukrainian Wartime Blood Supplies
September 24, 2026: When Russia invaded in 2022, one of the many shortages was blood for transfusions to wounded soldiers and civilians. Using the slogan, “Your blood can fight too”, Ukraine made it easier to donate and converted blood collection from local hospitals and regional networks to a unified national network. Donation centers were prepared to run 24 hours a day when needed, accepting donations around the clock if the emergency lasted. Ukraine created an Operational Headquarters to monitor and coordinate nationwide blood collection and distribution activities. This conversion to a national system came several decades after the United States made the move. In turn, the Ukrainian experience has much to teach America and other NATO nations.
Russia provides less frequent and effective medical care for its wounded soldiers; military and civilian leaders are appalled at how the Ukrainian efforts have substantially reduced the number of combat deaths. Prompt blood transfusions are a key part of this and one of several reasons that for every Ukrainian combat death there are eight or more Russian losses.
Since World War II, Americans have pioneered innovations in combat and peacetime emergency medicine. World War II was the first war for Americans where most of the casualties were from combat wounds and injuries rather than disease picked up while in the combat zone. World War II was medically revolutionary for two things. Antibiotics, like penicillin, and the quick availability of blood for badly wounded soldiers.
British doctors discovered antibiotics in the 1920s, but the United States could mass-produce these life-saving drugs. As for emergency blood supplies, Charles Drew, an American MD, developed the techniques and practices that made it possible to get freeze-dried blood powder in sterile packets for civilian and military casualties. The powder was reconstituted with sterile water to make whole blood. This saved tens of thousands of lives during World War II and continues to do so in the 21st century. During and after the war, this powder was shipped long distances by ship, plane, and truck. Dr. Drew also organized nationwide blood collection and distribution networks, with the help of like-minded medical professionals.
Another 21st-century development was advances in emergency medicine, administered by civilian EMTs (Emergency Medical Technicians) or military combat medics, which have made huge strides. Now, new medical tech is coming in the form of band-aids or bandages for people with minor bleeding injuries like cuts or scrapes. Some people do not heal as quickly, and these minor injuries can take a long time to heal. The solution is self-monitoring polymer band-aids or bandages. This smart bandage tech has completed animal testing and now faces up to a decade of human tests and development of larger bandages before it is generally available.
This smart bandage is worn for a week or two until the chronic bleeding is healed. The smart bandage consists of two parts. The most obvious part appears to be a disposable Band-Aid or bandage containing biosensors, electrodes, and hydrogel with medications, along with a device that delivers low-level electrical stimulation to speed healing. The second component is a flexible, reusable electronic patch that monitors the healing process by tracking temperature, pH, and other factors, allowing a doctor or medical technician to monitor healing. Each year, millions of people have slow-healing wounds, and smart bandages are designed to speed healing.
The smart bandage builds on two decades of major advances in emergency and combat medicine. These new technologies and procedures led to a reduction in combat deaths by more than half since 2003. This resulted from new treatments for wounds that previously had no battlefield treatment. That meant the victim would die before more extensive treatment could be applied. Among these were deep (abdominal or thigh) wounds where large arteries (like the abdominal aorta) were opened. When that happens, the victim bleeds to death in minutes.
There have been several new battlefield treatments for catastrophic injuries like this. The first appeared in 2013 as a belt placed on the abdomen and activated. A bladder inflates, which puts sufficient pressure on the abdominal aorta to stop the bleeding or reduce it enough to make it possible to get the casualty to a surgeon. The belt does not always work. This led, in 2014, to the introduction of another, more thorough solution. This was XStat, a syringe-like device that injected nearly a hundred small cellulose sponges into deep wounds. The tiny sponges were infused with antibacterial and clotting chemicals that stop the most severe bleeding in 20 seconds or less. The latest version of XStat sponges also contains a material that can be detected by X-rays, allowing a surgeon to be sure all the tiny sponges are removed later.
While tourniquets have been around for thousands of years, these devices work only on limbs and not well enough when major arteries are extensively damaged. Preventing death from most other rapid blood loss situations was achieved with the development and widespread use of powders and granules that could quickly stop the bleeding. First (in 2004) came special bandages like the Chitosan Hemostatic Dressing (more commonly called HemCon). This freeze-dried substance caused rapid blood clotting and was incorporated into what otherwise looked like a typical battlefield bandage. This bandage greatly reduced bleeding, which had become the most common cause of death among wounded American troops. This device was a breakthrough in bandage technology. Over 95 percent of the time, the HemCon bandages stopped bleeding, especially in areas where a tourniquet could not be applied. It did not work in extreme cases, especially when the abdominal aorta was involved. Medics followed HemCon with WoundStat powder to control bleeding that HemCon could not control. While medics and troops prefer the bandage-type device, there are situations where WoundStat (a fine granular substance) is a better solution (especially in the hands of a medic). Only the medics got packets (usually two) of WoundStat powder. That's because this is only needed for deep wounds and has a theoretical risk of causing fatal clots if it gets into the bloodstream.
WoundStat was one of many new medical tools for battlefield medicine that greatly increased the effectiveness of immediate medical care for troops, within minutes or seconds after they were hit. This effort consisted of three programs. First, they developed new medical tools and treatments that troops could be taught to use quickly and safely. This included stuff like HemCon. Then came the equipping of medics (about one for every 30 or so combat troops) with more powerful tools, so that troops were less likely to bleed to death or suffocate from certain types of wounds that are not fatal if treated quickly enough. Finally, the Combat Lifesaver program more than tripled the number of "medics" by putting selected soldiers through a 40-hour CLS (Combat Lifesaver) course in the most common medical procedures soldiers can perform to treat the most dangerous wounds they usually encounter. These CLS-trained soldiers were not medics, but they did make true emergency medical treatment more widely available in combat. In other words, CLS-qualified troops are sort of "medics lite," which is close enough if you are badly wounded and in need of some prompt medical treatment.
Over the last two centuries, major wars have produced significant improvements in medical care. This is what has happened since 2001, but at a much faster pace. For example, since September 11, 2001, over two million American troops went off to war and about two percent of them were killed or wounded. Only 12 percent of the 57,000 combat zone wounds were fatal, the lowest percentage in military history. This was largely due to major improvements in dealing with rapid blood loss from a major artery being severed and the increased speed with which complex medical care could be delivered to wounded troops. New medical technologies also made it possible to detect injuries (like brain trauma) that, in the past, were very difficult to detect and treat.
The Combat Lifesaver course teaches troops how to do things like insert breathing tubes and perform other emergency surgical procedures to restore breathing. The CLS troops have skills most likely to be needed in life-saving situations when a medic is not available. The additional emergency medical training and new emergency first aid gear (the "CLS bag") have saved hundreds of lives and reduced the severity of even more wounds. Enough troops have taken CLS training so that there is one for every 10-15 combat troops and one for every 20 or so support troops on convoy or security duty.
These developments also appealed to civilian emergency medical services, and many experienced combat medics left the military to work as EMTs, improving care for civilian accident victims. This was like le what happened to the EMT field after the Vietnam War, when ambulance crews rapidly evolved from simply transporting accident victims with basic first aid to EMTs who could administer procedures previously handled only by doctors. This followed World War II, when wartime demands drove the mass production of newly developed antibiotics, sparking a revolution in surgical techniques.
FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Thursday, September 24, 2026 - 02:14 pm: Edit

Weapons: Sea Drones and the Limits of Military Magic
September 24, 2026: Last year, Ukraine introduced a new V7 model of its Magura naval drone, weighing about 1.2 tons and carrying 650 kg of weapons. Its operational range is a thousand kilometers. The V7 can also be equipped with an electric generator, enabling it to stay at sea for up to seven days. This model can move at speeds of up to 72 kilometers per hour. Cruising speed is 43 kilometers per hour. This year, Ukraine has been adding new targeting systems that incorporate unified navigation, target identification, and pursuit. With this, a naval drone like Magura can be sent anywhere in the Black Sea to infiltrate a protected port, find its target, or follow a list of alternative targets. These drones also fly round-trip missions to gather information on a port, then return to base to serve as scouts or be armed for an attack mission.
America has a long tradition of naval and scientific drones and, combined with Ukrainian combat experience, tweaked its current Corsair naval drone. Last July, the American Navy used three Corsair naval surface drones to attack an Iranian submarine and ship maintenance facility in the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas. As a result, Iran now has difficulty attacking commercial shipping. F-18 warplanes and Marine F-35s operating from the USS Abraham Lincoln supported Corsairs. Land-based AH-64 helicopter gunships armed with autocannons and Hellfire guided missiles provided additional air cover. The Air Force also has A-10 ground-attack aircraft armed with a 30mm high-speed autocannon, missiles, and guided bombs.
Earlier in July, an American Navy Saronic Corsair naval surface drone rescued two Army gunship pilots who crashed off the coast of Oman near the entry to the Persian Gulf. The AH-64 helicopter had been patrolling near the Strait of Hormuz and was shot down by Iranian forces. The Corsair is an 11-meter vessel that can carry a ton of cargo up to 2,000 kilometers at a top speed of more than 60 kilometers an hour, with a cruising speed of less than half that. Each one costs $1.2 million, about 10 times as much as an equivalent Ukrainian naval drone.
Saronic also has a larger, related 82-meter Marauder naval drone that can carry 150 tons of cargo up to 7,300 kilometers, with a top speed of 45 kilometers an hour and a cruising speed of 22 kilometers an hour. This drone can carry four 40-foot containers, eight 20-foot containers, or any other combination of cargo that fits.
Ukrainian naval drones have revolutionized naval warfare within a few hundred kilometers of a coastline. So far, few other navies have shown much interest in replicating Ukraine's success with naval drones. The U.S. Coast Guard has used naval drones to assist in interdicting drug smuggling boats. The U.S. Navy has access to Ukrainian naval drone technology and is paying attention because China is doing a lot of work on naval drones, including a ship described as a drone carrier equipped with aerial and naval drones.
It all began in 2022 when the Russian Black Sea Fleet dominated the Black Sea and threatened Ukrainian grain exports, which accounted for 41 percent of its export income. Most of these grain products went to Egypt, Indonesia, Turkey, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Ukraine needed to deal with the Black Sea Fleet quickly. The initial problem was that Ukraine did not have a large navy. They had some patrol boats, which were a nuisance, not an obstacle, to continued Russian control of the Black Sea.
Ukraine had a secret weapon, the Magura naval drone. About a hundred of these drones defeated the Black Sea fleet. When the war started, the Magura V5 was just a concept, a preliminary design for a one-ton, 5.5-meter-long naval drone. Magura initially used a fishing boat with a solid waterproof cover, plus batteries for propulsion. There were sensors and a compartment for 300 kg of explosives or weapons. These include a machine gun protruding above the drone's topside, while two Sidewinder anti-aircraft missiles were in launch tubes, ready to be fired at Russian aircraft or helicopters. Magura has a substantial number of electronic components, including several day/night video cameras that give the remote operator a view of what is around the drone. It also has an autopilot, so the remote operator does not have to personally maneuver the drone over long stretches of open water. Magura is equipped with contact fuses at the front of the boat
Most Magura missions are one-way, but those equipped with machine-guns and surface-to-air missiles are also used to attack Russian aircraft. In one case, a Magura V7 used those two missiles to shoot down two expensive Russian SU-30 jet fighters. This was the first time a naval drone had shot down warplanes. Earlier, a Magura had used Ukrainian R-73 heat-seeking missiles to take down one Mi-8 helicopter and damage another.
The Ukrainian experience using naval drones to defeat the Russian Black Sea Fleet was unique. Ukraine had only surface-to-ship missiles when the war started, but eventually shifted to three new naval drones, Sea Baby, Mother, and MAGURA. (Maritime Autonomous Guard Unmanned Robotic Apparatus).
Some of these naval drones were used for a mid-2023 Kerch Bridge attack. One of the drones carried 850 kg of explosives and inflicted enough damage to halt use of the bridge. The Mother drone carried 450 kg, and the MAGURA carried 320 kg. In addition to attacking targets, these drones can also be used for reconnaissance and surveillance using video cameras that broadcast what they see back to the drone operator. Some drones have been armed with small rocket launchers. The Mother drone has a range of over 700 kilometers and can operate on the high seas. Endurance is about 60 hours, and top speed is over 70 kilometers an hour. Mother was used for an attack on the Russian naval base at Novorossiysk, which is a thousand kilometers from Crimea.
Ukraine has been developing subsurface drones and, in early 2023, introduced the first one, the Toloka2 TK-150. This drone was 2.5 meters long and equipped with a sensor mast that stayed above the surface for navigation and target identification. Toloka2 can also carry a small explosive warhead. Later, Ukraine developed the larger Marichka drone that is six meters long and one meter in diameter. Ukraine sought a Western manufacturer to build and weaponize Ukrainian drones.
Ukrainian drones have been quite successful in attacking and sinking or disabling Russian navy ships. So far, over a dozen attacks have sunk or damaged about twenty ships. Ukrainian drone operations in the Black Sea forced the Russian Black Sea Fleet to withdraw to the eastern shore of the Black Sea. Sevastopol was no longer a safe place to be, and Russian ships could no longer launch their Kalibr cruise missiles without risking attack by Ukrainian drones. The presence and aggressive use of the drones meant that Ukraine’s grain corridor was kept open despite Russia’s threats to interfere. Beyond symbolic significance, the corridor is critical to Ukraine's economy and is expected to contribute seven percent to GDP growth in 2024, and even more in 2025 and this year, because of grain shipments.
Russian countermeasures to Ukrainian naval drones included using aircraft and helicopters to destroy slow-moving drones before they attack and expanding the use of jamming to disrupt drone control signals. These changes made it much more difficult for Ukrainian naval drones to reach and destroy targets. But by 2025 the Russians had already lost control of the Black Sea and were not getting it back.
This left Russian warships dependent on bases in the north, near the land border with Norway, and in the Far East, near Japanese and South Korean naval bases. In a post-Cold War development, the Japanese and South Korean fleets are now far larger than the Russian Far East fleet. Before the 1990s, the South Korean fleet was largely non-existent and the Japanese fleet tiny and purely defensive. Chinese naval power began to emerge by the late 1990s but took another decade to become a significant force. Then, as now, the American Western Pacific Fleet was the region's major naval power.
The lessons learned by American, Chinese, Taiwanese, Japanese, Ukrainian, and Russian naval commanders are that these drones have changed the rules for naval warfare. If China tries to invade Taiwan, it must prepare countermeasures for numerous naval drones blocking the way. Everyone continues to observe Black Sea operations for details on what new tactics, techniques, and drone designs appear. The U.S. has an edge because they are a major supporter of Ukraine and is seeking to make the most of its insider knowledge of the Ukrainian naval drone effort.
Currently, the few active Russian Black Sea ports are defended by physical barriers, airborne and naval patrols, along with hundreds of heavy machine guns. This is the one weapon that can quickly cripple or destroy naval drones caught inside a protected anchorage. During the last year, Ukraine has revived attacks on Russian cargo ships and a few military vessels.

FYEO

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Saturday, September 26, 2026 - 09:34 pm: Edit

In other news, the magazine Aviation Week posted a story about a Lockheed Martin proposal to the U.S. Air Force for a new variant production of F-16G fighters.

Lockheed Martin has proposed a new F-16G fighter variant based on the Block 70 airframe to the U.S. Air Force to help address a growing fleet capacity gap.

Proposal Overview:

Designed to replace aging legacy F-16 Fighting Falcons and maintain combat fleet numbers as older airframes retire.

Current Status: Pitched in September 2026; the U.S. Air Force has made no formal decision, defined no requirement, and committed no funding yet, though it may weigh the option for the fiscal 2028 budget.

Manufacturing Location: Planned for Lockheed Martin's Greenville facility in South Carolina.

Key Features & Upgrades

Extended Range: Includes conformal fuel tanks and larger 600-gallon wing tanks.

Advanced Systems:

Equips an infrared search and track (IRST) system,
SNIPER targeting pods, and a drag chute.

Airframe Longevity:

Built on modern Block 70 standards with an extended service life.

I do not remember what Block 70 standards are, if they are important, I will post a summary.

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Saturday, September 26, 2026 - 09:37 pm: Edit

The F-16 Block 70/72 (often called the "Viper") upgrade package introduces advanced fifth-generation fighter technologies, structural enhancements, and modernized avionics to the classic airframe.

Key Upgrades and FeaturesAdvanced Radar:

Equipped with the Northrop Grumman AN/APG-83 Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar, sharing hardware and software lineages with the F-22 and F-35 for superior target detection and electronic warfare resistance.

Modernized Cockpit: Features a high-resolution 6x8-inch Center Pedestal Display (CPD) that provides tactical imagery, color moving maps, and digital flight instrumentation, alongside an advanced helmet-mounted cueing system.

Structural Life Extension:

Rated for an industry-leading structural service life of 12,000 hours—allowing the aircraft to fly for decades longer (extending service well past 2040).

Safety Systems:

Includes the life-saving Automatic Ground Collision Avoidance System (Auto GCAS) designed to prevent pilot-downward fatal crashes.

Engine & Range Options: Powered either by the General Electric F110-GE-129 engine (Block 70, which features a wider "Big Mouth" inlet) or the Pratt & Whitney F100-PW-229 engine (Block 72), paired with conformal fuel tanks (CFTs) for an extended combat radius.

Avionics & Weapons:

Upgraded modular mission computers, advanced datalinks, targeting pods (like the Sniper ATP), Infrared Search and Track (IRST) capability, and compatibility with over 180 weapon types.

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Sunday, September 27, 2026 - 02:10 pm: Edit

RAF Fairford.

Very little information so far has come out - but it seems 3 Vehicles were stopped near the Base.

Best guess is they were set up to drive onto the Airbase - and try and get close to the B1's there and detonate????

5 men arrrested at the scene.

80-85 Homes near where the vehicles were stopped remain evacuated while I assume Bomb Disposal Teams make the vehicles safe.

Hopefully over the coming hours, more info will come out.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Sunday, September 27, 2026 - 04:19 pm: Edit

Thanks, Paul, worrying information there. Could be Russian or Iranian.