Fox news is broadcasting a live feed from the air base in England. (Actually, filmed by a local news affiliate), in what appears to be a helicopter.

Three trucks were involved, and five males arrested “on suspicion “ of violating the explosives ordinance act.

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Sunday, September 27, 2026 - 05:18 pm: Edit

ABC News (network feed) is reporting that local law enforcement received a tip from a civilian driver reporting”three suspicious white vehicles”.

The same news brief claims that the individuals arrested had ties to Iran, though no details or explanation were provided.

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Sunday, September 27, 2026 - 05:42 pm: Edit

So Iran is thanking the UK for staying out of Trump's war?

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Sunday, September 27, 2026 - 07:10 pm: Edit

More likely, they were targeting the B-1 bombers because they (the bombers) were used to make the attacks on targets inside Iran.

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Monday, September 28, 2026 - 07:58 am: Edit

It seems

RAF Fairford went on the highest level of alert (Delta) last Wednesday - vehicles seemed to start blocking some (all??? - have only seen 1 picture - I would guess they would do all of them) of the Crash gates .

No details on 'who' yet - but Iran looks like the most likely.

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Monday, September 28, 2026 - 08:36 am: Edit

GBnews posted a video clip on youtube of a broadcast yesterday.

They reported that the tip mentioned in an earlier post had been phoned in to 999 (which apparently is the British version of ‘911’) at 1:00 AM (local time) Saturday morning by a local “farmer”.

She told the dispatcher that there were “three white vans with five men running around the woods wearing balaclavas.”

For those who may not know, a balaclava is a British term for a type of head gear. The video I saw had one of the arrested males with what looked like a ski mask type knitted face covering.

I expect that there will be more information to come.

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Monday, September 28, 2026 - 11:06 am: Edit

In other news, there has been progress on the U.S. Navy FA-XX program.

The U.S. Navy's F/A-XX program is a sixth-generation development and acquisition initiative intended to replace the F/A-18E/F Super Hornet and EA-18G Growler in the 2030s.

The Navy first identified the operational requirement for a next-generation strike fighter in June 2008.

In April 2012, the service issued a formal Request for Information (RFI) outlining a multirole platform with super cruise, advanced stealth, and sensor networking.

Lockheed Martin was eliminated from the competition, leaving Boeing and Northrop Grumman as the two primary aerospace contractors in the running.

The Pentagon's fiscal year 2026 budget request initially slashed F/A-XX funding down to roughly $74 million amid industrial base and cost concerns. However, congressional intervention later restored substantial funding (boosting it closer to nearly $1 billion or higher in legislative adjustments), reviving the program.

The Navy anticipated a final contractor down select decision in the summer of 2026 to build the sixth-generation carrier fighter, as detailed in coverage from USNI News.

extended Range: Designed to provide roughly a 25% greater combat radius than current Super Hornets to keep carriers safely out of adversary missile reach.

Autonomous Teaming: Built to act as a quarterback/command node for collaborative combat aircraft (drone swarms).

Carrier Integration: Engineered to withstand harsh maritime conditions, catapult launches, and arrested recoveries

Guess we are now waiting to find out which of the two competing
Companies will get the contract.

Note most of this information came from USNI articles.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, September 28, 2026 - 02:47 pm: Edit

Trump said that US people at the base had spotted this crew on a previous scout of the base and started tracking them down and the US and UK both had cops tracking them down but that the farmer's tip call was crucial to stopping whatever they were doing, which might have been another recon or might have been the actual attack.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, September 28, 2026 - 04:13 pm: Edit

Winning: What the Baltic States Learned from Ukraine
September 27, 2026: As the Russian war in Ukraine enters its fifth year, NATO intelligence sources are increasingly warning that Russia also poses a growing threat to countries in the Baltic region. So far, the confrontation has produced only isolated incidents, such as drone incursions into these countries’ airspace. Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Poland, and Finland increasingly must decide how they would collectively defend themselves against a major Russian invasion. This is not a new threat. A century ago, the Baltic states attempted to form a military coalition for mutual defense against the Soviet and German threat. Such an alliance never came to pass, and the Baltics spent World War 2 under German control, followed by nearly half a century of Communist rule.
The security situation in the Baltic Sea has changed significantly since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began. Finland and Sweden have joined NATO, while the Baltic states and Poland have accelerated their rearmament and efforts to strengthen the alliance’s eastern flank. Disputes within NATO over burden-sharing have also intensified: President Donald Trump’s administration is demanding that Europe rely more on its own resources and spend more on defense, while Europeans are increasingly debating whether they can still count on the same level of American involvement in the alliance.
Three years ago, the Baltic States, Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia, increased their defense spending and aimed for three percent of GDP on their armed forces. They also took a more dramatic step: severing economic ties with Russia. For 65 years, Estonia and the other Baltic States received their electrical power from Russia. In early 2025, the Baltic States switched to the European electricity network. This left the Russian Baltic Sea enclave of Kaliningrad, formerly German Konigsberg, isolated from Russian power supplies. This enclave now depends on new coal- and gas-fired power plants with coal and liquid natural gas shipped in from Russia. The enclave also serves as a base for Russian retaliation against the Baltic States. This is in the form of Russian merchant ships dragging their anchors along the seafloor to break or damage electrical or communications cables. With Russian forces tied down in Ukraine, Baltic States military and police forces boarded the offending Russian ships and encouraged the crews to cease their mischief.
This dramatic switch from Russian to European energy sources included rearming with Western weapons. Estonia led the way by dramatically increasing orders for new military equipment. Estonia is spending $14.5 billion over a decade to build up munitions stockpiles and acquire modern weapons. These include Israeli Harpy loitering munitions and Spike Anti-Tank Guided Missiles/ATGMs, which are on order. Blue Spear land-based anti-ship missiles arrived in 2024. These have a range of 290 kilometers, and Estonia is launching them from trucks. These mobile missile launchers can be moved around, making them more difficult to hit with airstrikes. Estonia ordered 36 K9 self-propelled howitzers from South Korea, and all have been delivered. Six HIMARS vehicles and a large supply of the guided missiles these vehicles carry have arrived. Several hundred wheeled armored personnel carriers were purchased to replace the trucks many infantry units now use.
The currently recommended NATO goal is two percent of GDP for defense, but Estonia and the other Baltic states have exceeded that because of the Ukraine war. That means air defense systems were upgraded with new radars and fire control systems for new anti-aircraft missile systems. These include the Polish Piorun for low-flying threats and the German IRIS-T for more distant, higher-flying aircraft and missiles. Estonia increased the size of its active-duty armed forces from 26,000 to 36,000.
Estonia is a small country with a population of 1.3 million and a GDP of $44 billion. That means per-capita GDP is $46,000. Poland and the Baltic States made an extraordinary, financially costly effort to assist Ukraine during the first six weeks of the war. For example, tiny Estonia spent about 0.8 percent of its annual GDP to support Ukraine during those six weeks. Most of the aid went to processing and hosting Ukrainian refugees fleeing the Russian attacks on their homes. By late 2022, Ukrainians and their NATO supporters were planning for what comes after the war. By 2025, Russian troops were on the run, and Russia had few options left. Estonia is convinced that Russia will try again, and the next time Estonia might be the target.
This is not a new problem. Back in 2016, the Baltic States asked for some American troops. Not enough to halt a Russian invasion, just enough to ensure that the Americans and their NATO allies, or at least some of them, would intervene if Russia did attack. The Baltic States already have a mutual defense guarantee from NATO through NATO membership. But that is not enough, and what has been asked for, and granted, are some American troops in each of these nations. The response was to send one reinforced battalion to each Baltic State. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began in 2022, the Americans have put more personnel, most of them support troops, in Poland and the Baltic States.
The Baltic States and neighboring Poland join a growing list of nations that, threatened by dangerous neighbors, have agreed, and often been asked, to host American troops. The first and most obvious examples are South Korea, Japan, and Germany. A few nations in the Middle East have quietly followed this model, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). All these Persian Gulf nations want the Americans around to keep the Iranians out. But it is not just the Iranians. Inside Iraq, there have been American troops in northern Iraq to protect the autonomous Kurdish majority up there from the Arab majority since the early 1990s. This form of security is also called a tripwire force because, if the host nation is attacked, the presence of some U.S. troops means that a lot of U.S. reinforcements will promptly arrive. Several other nations are seeking this form of security guarantee but are not getting it, at least not yet. This includes Ukraine and Georgia. The United States is the favored source of these armed hostages because the U.S. is a superpower and, compared to all the alternatives, the least likely to take advantage of the situation.
FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, September 28, 2026 - 04:14 pm: Edit

Russia: Russian Saints for Nukes and Secret Police
September 27, 2026: The Russian Orthodox Church has long bolstered nuclear, military, and intelligence organizations by declaring that an existing or newly recognized saint protects them. This means that Russia's nuclear weapons program has been blessed by God and St. Seraphim Sarovsky. It’s symbolic that Seraphim means "blazing" in Hebrew, making this term doubly important as the patron saint of nuclear weapons and scientists.
The Russian Orthodox Church declares that Russia’s nuclear weapons program is blessed by God and the saints. Sarov, the heart of Russia’s nuclear weapons development activities, was once an old monastery town and the home of a hermit monk, St. Seraphim Sarovsky. An ancient hymn dedicated to Seraphim called him a shield defending Mother Russia. Seraphim’s home was declared the birthplace of the nuclear weapons that for eighty years have protected Mother Russia
The Russian Orthodox Church preaches that St. Seraphim was responsible for the Russian development of nuclear weapons and that, if the nuclear scientists and technicians hadn’t made possible the creation of nuclear weapons, Russia would not have any of these decisive weapons to defend itself.
Historically, Russia has long had military saints and the Russian Orthodox Church clergy involved with praising and blessing and involving armed forces, nuclear weapons, and intelligence organizations while blending religious symbolism with state ideology
After 1991, the Russian Orthodox Church was providing chaplains, for a while at least, and other morale-building activities for Russian troops fighting in Ukraine. During the 1920s and 30s, the Communists persecuted the Russian Orthodox Church but did not destroy it. The Russian Orthodox Church really hasn’t changed much since Stalin rehabilitated it during the 1941-45 war with Germany.
Since the Soviet State dissolved in 1991, the Russian Orthodox Church has promoted a new pantheon of military heroes, including Soviet and Russian generals, pilots, and soldiers who have been canonized or commemorated alongside traditional saints. These saints are described as models of loyalty, sacrifice, and patriotism, and their icons appear in garrison churches, nuclear command posts, and even on strategic weapons platforms
Each portion of the nuclear triad- air, land, and submarine-launched weapons- has a patron saint and religious rituals. These include pre-launch blessings, processions with crosses, and chapels aboard submarines. For believers, witnessing such ceremonies strengthens their faith in their weapons. Nonbelievers may suspect something beneficial is happening because these rituals have survived for centuries. If Russia had a military, the Russian Orthodox Church blessed it, supporting soldiers and officers and providing more substantial wartime assistance.
Military clergy now act as spiritual and morale officers, eventually replacing Soviet political commissars. This creates a culture where religious devotion and military duty are intertwined, and saints are invoked to inspire loyal and courageous sons of Mother Russia. When Soviet archives were briefly available to Western researchers in the 1990s, it was revealed that Vladimir Gundyaev, who became Patriarch Kirill, was an active KGB officer before becoming Patriarch Kirill. Other Russian Orthodox Church clergy, including senior bishops, also served as agents or were used for political control and intelligence gathering.
The Russian Orthodox Church has also been used as the ideological agent of the Russian state, promoting the war in Ukraine as a Holy War, justifying territorial claims, and mobilizing society through religious and propaganda networks. The Russian Orthodox Church’s relationship with the military and intelligence services is part of a long-term Church/State alliance created by dictator Josef Stalin; the Church was forced to boost morale and promote the idea that God was on Russia’s side during the Great Patriotic War against Nazi Germany.
FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, September 28, 2026 - 04:14 pm: Edit

China: Russia Shows China How to Make War
September 28, 2026: While China cautioned Russia about the Ukraine War, that did not dissuade China from energetically supplying Russia with drones and drone components. China also violated the economic sanctions by supplying Russia with components for making other weapons, including Iskander missiles. Many of these shipments were smuggled, disguised as consumer goods. What many political, diplomatic, and intelligence experts missed was that Russia was showing Chinese soldiers how to fight a drone war, using Russian- or Chinese-made drones and the practical experience the Russians had in abundance. China was supplied with thousands of hours of drone operator video so that Chinese soldiers would put on the drone operator goggles to see how drone warfare operates at the basic level. China also used all that video to create an AI system that would assist or take over from drone operators in finding and destroying a target. With this AI, one operator could control several drones simultaneously, while other drone operators brought additional drones for the primary operators to use in their attacks. China was not only learning drone warfare, but they were also improving the mechanics of how the Internet was used and increasing its lethality.
China has, since 2022, advised Russia that the Ukraine war was a mistake. Two years ago, it said China would continue to support Russia on its Ukrainian problem. China would ignore pressure from the United States and the European Union and not allow outside (NATO) pressure to interfere with the China-Russia relationship: "China will not abandon its established policies, and the outside world will not interfere with normal cooperation between China and Russia.”
Russia also had several economic reasons to be careful with China. Although Russia had dominated Central Asia for centuries, China and the booming Chinese economy are now moving in. Chinese traders and businessmen are everywhere. The traders offer the best prices and the widest variety of goods. The Chinese businessmen offer the most attractive deals, although Kazakhstan turned down a Chinese proposal to rent a million hectares (2.5 million acres) of unused farmland and allow Chinese farmers to work it. This sort of thing scares Central Asians, who have a population of less than 65 million, compared to 880 million Chinese. But the Chinese are being allowed to build highways and railways that will connect all of Eurasia, as well as oil and gas pipelines carrying energy to China. This is all good, if the Chinese don't try to export many people. This is a real fear, because Russia conquered Central Asia in the 19th century, and held on to it until the Soviet Union fell apart in 1991. China could replace Russia, and the people of Central Asia have little they can do about it. Still, the Central Asian states believe the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) may help keep China in check. The SCO includes Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, with Mongolia, Pakistan, India, and Iran as associate members, or "observers." Russia and the Central Asian states are trying to make India a member to counterbalance China. Unofficially, the SCO exists to keep the peace between China and Russia over economic activities in Central Asia. Right now, China is winning the race to develop large oil and gas fields in Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. China needs the energy and is willing to pay whatever it takes. Since the Central Asian nations are run by corrupt leaders, often dictators, the Chinese have an easy, if expensive, way to gain control of natural resources. Now, Russia is more concerned with halting, or much reducing, the flow of opium, hashish, and heroin from Afghanistan to Russia. These drugs have created millions of addicts and major social problems. Russia has supplied the United States with extensive information on the drug gangs in Afghanistan and throughout Central Asia, and how the smuggling networks operate. Russia is also trying to get more cooperation from Central Asian governments. But in many of these countries, senior officials are on the drug gang payrolls.
FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, September 28, 2026 - 04:15 pm: Edit

Naval Air: Anka Stealth Drone Carries Drones
September 26, 2026: In the last few years, the Turkish arms industry has been very productive. New systems include the Tufan naval surface attack drone. The Anka 3 fixed-wing reconnaissance and surveillance drone is now in service. The Pamir 4x4 light tactical armored vehicle is used for reconnaissance, rapid response and Special Operations Forces. The Palem is a ground-transport drone. It can carry troops and cargo and, like similar vehicles in Ukraine, be armed with various weapons. Turkey is also developing hypersonic missiles, as are most other major military powers. These are used frequently by the Russians to hit Ukrainian economic targets and populated areas. Turkey is also developing Kizilelma, an unmanned jet fighter. Turkey finally brought its Altay tank into service to compete with the American M-1 and the German Leopard 2. Turkey also introduced Kaplan, a tracked autonomous combat vehicle that can be equipped with a variety of weapons, including upcoming laser systems to counter drones.

Türkiye has presented the Anka-3 stealth UCAV carrying two Süper Şimşek strike drones at SAHA Expo 2026, signaling a major shift toward distributed unmanned air operations designed for combat inside heavily defended airspace. The configuration, revealed by Turkish Aerospace Industries during the exhibition, shows Ankara moving beyond conventional ISR-focused drone warfare toward low-observable strike packages that combine stealth, electronic attack, decoys, and expendable effectors to overwhelm modern air defense networks.
The Anka-3 can deploy smaller UAVs forward while remaining outside defense missile engagement zones, allowing the Süper Şimşek systems to trigger radar emissions, conduct jamming, or execute one-way strike missions against exposed targets. Combined with future teaming plans involving the TF Kaan fighter and Turkish electronic warfare systems, the concept reflects a broader NATO trend toward attritable unmanned combat systems intended to saturate air defenses, preserve high-value assets, and sustain combat effectiveness in contested electromagnetic environments.
At SAHA Expo 2026, Turkish Aerospace Industries displayed a full-scale Anka-3 unmanned combat aircraft equipped with two Süper Şimşek UAVs mounted under the wings, providing one of the clearest indications so far that Türkiye is structuring future air operations around distributed unmanned strike packages. The configuration combined a low-observable flying-wing UCAV with smaller expendable systems optimized for decoy, electronic warfare, stand-in jamming, and one-way strike missions. Unlike earlier Turkish drone concepts centered on ISR and permissive-airspace precision strikes, the new Anka-3 arrangement focuses on operations against defended airspace where survivability depends on force dispersion, electronic attack, signature management, and saturation.
The display also aligned with Turkish efforts underway since late 2024 to integrate the Anka-3 into manned-unmanned team structures involving the TF Kaan fighter, Hürjet advanced jet trainer, and Aksungur UAV. The two Süper Şimşek UAVs were carried externally on wing hardpoints rather than inside internal bays, suggesting that the objective at SAHA 2026 was to demonstrate new operational concepts. The arrangement also followed earlier tests in which Aksungur and Anka-3 served as airborne launch platforms for smaller unmanned effectors capable of autonomous release and coordinated employment.
Turkish industry refers to this operational model as “Sadık Kanat,” broadly equivalent to loyal wingman concepts pursued in the United States and Australia, although the Turkish implementation appears more focused on strike support and electronic warfare than autonomous air-to-air combat. Operationally, the concept lets the carrier drone remain outside dense surface-to-air missile engagement zones while expendable UAVs penetrate farther to trigger radar emissions, force interceptor launches, conduct jamming, or deliver small warheads against exposed targets.
The emphasis on distributed effects also aligns with broader NATO trends prioritizing lower-cost, attritable systems that can exhaust high-value interceptor inventories during the opening stages of an air campaign. The Anka-3 itself occupies an intermediate category between traditional MALE drones and crewed tactical combat aircraft. The drone uses a tailless flying-wing layout with no vertical stabilizers, reducing radar reflections while preserving internal volume for fuel and weapons. The Anka-3 measures 7.9 m in length, has a 12.5 m wingspan, and has a maximum takeoff weight of 6,500 kg.
Current prototypes use a single AI-322 turbofan engine of Ukrainian origin, while the Turkish industry continues developing the indigenous TF6000 and TF10000 turbofan families to reduce long-term dependence on foreign propulsion supply chains. Performance figures place the aircraft in the high-subsonic category with a maximum speed of Mach 0.7, an endurance of nearly 10 hours, and an operational altitude of 40,000 ft. The aircraft incorporates two internal weapon bays plus five external hardpoints, allowing operators to trade radar signature for payload volume depending on mission requirements.
Compared with larger U.S. stealth aircraft optimized primarily for penetration, the Anka-3 appears engineered around production scalability, endurance, payload flexibility, and reduced observability. The Süper Şimşek UAV fills a different operational niche centered on expendability and mission modularity. Derived from Turkish target drone programs, the Süper Şimşek measures roughly 4 m long with a 1.75 m wingspan, a 200 kg maximum takeoff weight, and a 35-50 kg payload capacity. Performance figures include speeds near Mach 0.85, an operational altitude near 35,000 ft, endurance near 80 minutes, and an operational radius approaching 900 km under air-launched profiles.
The drone can carry radar cross-section augmentation systems, infrared signature enhancement modules, electronic support measures, jamming payloads, countermeasure dispensers, and one-way attack warheads. Functionally, the Süper Şimşek resembles Western stand-in effectors intended to stimulate hostile radar systems, expose air-defense nodes, and impose unfavorable cost exchanges by forcing expensive missile launches against relatively inexpensive unmanned systems. Launching the UAV from Anka-3 or Aksungur substantially increases operational reach because the carrier aircraft provides initial altitude, speed, and forward positioning before release deeper into contested airspace.
The Anka-3 could also carry SOM-J cruise missiles, Tolun guided glide bombs, Teber-82 guidance kits, Kuzgun munitions, Akbaba anti-radiation missiles, and Gökdoğan or Bozdoğan air-to-air missiles. Internal carriage remains important because external stores significantly increase radar signature, particularly against modern fire control radars operating across multiple frequency bands. Planned integration of Aselsan’s Murad AESA radar would expand the aircraft’s role beyond ISR and precision strike by enabling air-to-air tracking, synthetic aperture radar mapping, moving-target indication, and beyond-visual-range engagement support.
The radar family has already been tested on the F-16 Özgür, Kizilelma, and Akinci, allowing Turkish industry to standardize radar modes and software architecture across multiple manned and unmanned aircraft. Additional systems planned for Anka-3 include EO/IR targeting sensors, IRST capability, COMINT and ELINT suites, electronic support measures, and electronic attack payloads. Collectively, these systems suggest Turkish planners intend to use the aircraft simultaneously for ISR, strike coordination, electronic warfare, targeting relay, and network extension within a broader manned-unmanned teaming component.
During World Defense Show 2026, Turkish Aerospace Industries demonstrated the Kaan operating alongside two Anka-3s in coordinated formations, with the crewed fighter supervising targeting, communication, and engagement sequencing. Turkish industry intends to make communication and firing links between Kaan and Anka-3 operational before Kaan enters frontline service, with swarm-management and coordinated engagement logic developed in parallel. Operationally, the arrangement allows the Kaan to function partly as a command aircraft distributing reconnaissance, electronic warfare, and strike tasks across unmanned systems while remaining farther from dense air defense zones.
Turkish operational experience in Syria, Libya, Iraq, Nagorno-Karabakh, and Ukraine likely influenced this doctrine by demonstrating both the effectiveness and vulnerability of conventional MALE drones in increasingly contested electromagnetic environments. The shift toward low-observable UCAVs paired with expendable adjunct UAVs reflects an effort to preserve the operational advantages of unmanned systems while addressing survivability limitations exposed in recent conflicts.
FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, September 28, 2026 - 04:16 pm: Edit

Endless Wars in Iran and Ukraine
September 28, 2026: The American war with Iran started in 1979 and now seems headed toward a conclusion. America and Israel have always been the primary targets for Islamic Iran. Israel has long maintained an extensive network of operatives and agents inside Iran, but the Americans have suffered far greater economic and personnel losses. The only way to stop half a century of violence is to take down the Islamic dictatorship in Iran. A key target is the Iranian IRGC/Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps), which evolved during the early 1980s in the wake of the 1979 revolution that replaced a corrupt monarch with a corrupt religious dictatorship. The religious leaders noted that the monarchy lacked a sufficiently strong Palace Guard to prevent a successful rebellion. That observation led to the creation of the IRGC, a Palace Guard with nearly 200,000 well-trained, well-equipped soldiers and a half million Basij militia members stationed in most provinces. Some 20,000 IRGC personnel operate in the IRGC navy, which monitors the loyalty of the regular navy.
The IRGC proved its worth during the eight-year war with Iraq. This began in 1980 when Iraq sought to grab some Iranian oil fields on the border while the Iranian civil war was still underway. The IRGC quickly ended the Iranian Civil War and turned their attention to the Iraqi invaders. The war continued until 1988, when both sides realized that over half a million Iranians and Iraqis had been killed and no one was winning.
Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein was able to avoid defeat because Arab oil states sent Iraq billions of dollars in economic and military aid. Neighboring Kuwait provided over $10 billion in loans and, after the war, unwisely asked for a plan to repay the debt. Iraq had oil income and could afford to repay the debt, but instead invaded Kuwait in 1990, instigating a war with Saudi Arabia, the United States, and other NATO nations. The war was over in about a hundred days, with Iraq defeated. Then 9/11 happened, and the US conquered Iraq because it had trained terrorists on how to hijack airliners.
Western forces occupied Iraq until 2011 so they could deal with Saddam’s backup plan that consisted of using Islamic Terrorists against the Western invaders. This ultimately failed, and Saddam was killed along the way.
Iran observed all this mayhem and eventually sought to take advantage of Iraqi chaos and weakness. During the 1980s, Iran spent nearly $20 billion to establish and maintain a presence in Syria and Lebanon. The IRGC Quds Force handled most of the subversion and organized pro-Iran militias in Syria. That process was still going on in early 2024. In the last few months of 2024, it all ended, along with billions of dollars’ worth of weapons factories and air defense systems. Now it's all gone, and Iran has nothing to show for it.
That ended 15-20 years of Iranian efforts to make Syria a base for Iranian attacks on Israel. This is one of many catastrophic strategic defeats for Iran’s mullah regime in the last year. The most recent is that corruption and mismanagement of its economy have produced a shortage of water, oil, and natural gas for domestic use. Iran’s president made a televised speech in December 2024 informing the Iranian people of this and announced his decision to divert the currently available fuel stocks from the economy and jobs to heat homes, so millions of Iranians wouldn’t freeze to death in the dark. This and ongoing economic screw-ups due to unending and rising corruption and inflation produced another popular uprising in January 2026, which was suppressed with 30,000 – 60,000 dead.
Something else Iran must rebuild is belief among all Iranians that the current leaders will be able to end the poverty that has been growing over the last decade, with a third of Iranians impoverished and a few percent without housing or enough food to survive. All evidence shows that this is an impossible burden given the mullah regime’s corruption and brutality.
Many Iranian leaders believe a successful uprising is possible if the religious dictatorship does nothing or tries to suppress the continuing protests, poverty, and violent suppression of protests. That kind of suppression is increasingly less effective, and members of the religious establishment and some IRGC leaders openly express concern that a more serious uprising is possible and whoever wins, Iran loses. So far, most of the senior clerics in the Guardians Council oppose any concessions to those demanding economic reforms and an end of lifestyle rules that punish women who do not cover their hair with a scarf.
IRGC leaders are less eager to oppose any concessions. Many IRGC leaders are closer to the protests and have a better sense of how angry Iranians are and how far most Iranians are willing to go. The IRGC is not large enough to take on most Iranians, and many individual IRGC men are not willing to slaughter a lot of fellow Iranians to keep corrupt religious and IRGC leaders in power. The continued economic sanctions make life difficult for more Iranians who are unemployed and cannot afford the higher food prices. Iranian leaders must decide whether they want to still live in a fantasy world of rapidly rebuilding and repairing all the damage the country has suffered lately. God will provide, but not in the form of infrastructure restoration or restocking the military rocket and missile arsenal.
The war in Ukraine has been going on for over a thousand years. Russia invaded Ukraine five years ago and has failed to conquer its neighbor. Ukrainian long-range drones are systematically destroying Russian economic and military infrastructure. Russia would like to end this war, which has cost it over a trillion dollars and over a million Russians dead or fleeing to other countries. What really rankles Russia is that Ukraine is the source of the original Russian culture.
Ukraine, as defined by a common language and cultural customs, first appeared about 1,500 years ago. This coincided with the emergence of Russia. Russia managed to expand more rapidly than Ukraine, and there are now six times more Russian speakers. Forcing others to adopt your language is a common tool for linguistic expansion. Ukrainians had much less ambition for imperial expansion. This means that the continued existence of the Ukrainian language and nationalism is something of an achievement, one that Russia is still seeking to suppress.
What is now known as Ukraine evolved from the unification of a number of Slavic tribes speaking a common language (Ukrainian) and united around 900 AD when Swedish Vikings traded and raided into what is now Russia via major rivers like the Neva and Vistula, both of which allowed Viking longboats to travel deep into Russia. These early Nordic raiders were known as the Rus (Old Norse for “rowers”), who eventually became Russia. This began in the 800s when the Rus captured Kyiv and used it as the center of a Rus kingdom that came to include Kyiv, portions of modern Belarus and Russia. This was the first Russian state, and by the 1200s the Swedish influence had declined and been replaced by Ukrainian customs. Locals kept some Nordic words and customs for centuries after that. The Kyivan Rus empire was made up of many distinct Slavic tribes that all recognized the city of Kyiv (to northern Slavs) or Kyiv (to the southeastern and southern Slavs) as the cultural and commercial capital of an empire that lasted about three centuries.
Russians and Ukrainians differ on the importance of the Kyivan Rus empire, with Russia seeing it as the cultural source of Russian/Ukrainian culture, which Russia came to dominate. Ukrainian see the Kyivan Rus empire as the origin of modern Ukraine, while Russia evolved differently after the devastating Golden Horde (Mongol) invasion in the early 1200s shattered the unity provided by the Kyivan Rus and was replaced by separate efforts to reunify as Russia and Ukraine. In the north, Eastern Orthodox Christianity helped a more successful effort, while Ukraine also had many Roman Catholics.
Russians concentrated on achieving access to the sea, in this case the Baltic Sea. The Ukrainians had to fight various groups of Mongols, Turks, and even Italian colonies to gain access to the Black Sea. Local Russian, Lithuanian, and Ukrainian princes slowly diminished Mongol power by ruling small principalities that sometimes fought as Mongol allies. By 1400, Mongol power was in decline, and Ukraine and Belarus were a major component of the Polish Lithuanian confederation, which defeated the Golden Horde as well as Germans advancing from the west. Although powerful, the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth was surrounded by enemies and faced frequent internal conflicts.
Ukrainian history also honors the Ukrainian Cossacks, a frontier mounted militia that first appeared in the 1500s to protect southern borders from Turkic Kazaks and Tatars. The term Cossack comes from an ancient Slavic word, kozak, meaning a free man or adventurer. The need for kozaks arose when Ukraine claimed lands in the south and southeast of what is now Ukraine, but small numbers of mounted Tatars and Kazars largely controlled these lands. In return for official recognition and support (of individual land claims), bands of Cossacks emerged. Initially, anyone could join, including Turks, if they swore allegiance to Ukraine and the elected leader (hetman) of each Cossack group (“host”). Sometimes the Polish nobles tried to renege on their promise of land title, and that led to the Cossack reputation for often being rebels, and effective ones on their own land. This led to a Ukrainian hetman, Bohdan Khmelnytsky, leading a rebellion against oppressive Polish nobles that led to brief (1649-1657) independence from Polish control.
Polish and Lithuanian power declined in the 1700s because of wars with a unified Russian kingdom (tsardom), persistent German attacks from the west, and growing Turkish power in the south. Emerging in the early 1300s, the Ottoman Turks conquered Constantinople (Istanbul) in 1452, ending the Byzantine (Eastern Roman) Empire and giving the Ottomans control over access to the Black Sea from the Mediterranean. That control lasted until 1922, when an international treaty limited Turkish control over access to the Black Sea. In Russia, access to the sea (the Baltic Sea) was achieved in 1709.
In the last century, armed Ukrainians and Russian soldiers have frequently fought each other. Armed Ukrainian freedom fighters always existed, and their numbers swelled after the two World Wars. After 1945, the Ukrainian rebels were active for over a decade. Russian leaders sometimes considered the elimination of the Ukrainian people by mass murder or transportation to distant regions. This was not practical because Ukraine was also the center of technological and scientific innovation and, eventually, home to most of the Soviet aircraft industry. By the late 20th century, Ukraine was also Russia's Silicon Valley. It was no accident that Ukraine invented modern drone warfare, which was a major reason Russia has not been able to conquer Ukraine. Russia insists the war in Ukraine is ending with a Russian victory. The only problem with that is coming up with a convincing way to prove it. Vladimir Putin is flailing to make that work.
FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, September 28, 2026 - 04:16 pm: Edit

Russia: Remilitarizing the Secret Police
September 26, 2026: By the end of the year, the Russian security service, the FSB, will have created paramilitary units; this will include leadership changes, with FSB officers with extensive military experience taking control of the new organization.
This is nothing new. Fourteen years ago, several hundred members of the GRU 45th Spetsnaz Regiment were sent in, disguised as civilians, to create a “popular uprising” that would enable Russia to annex Crimea. Some of the uniformed men who then took control of Crimea were apparently hired, pro-Russia locals, but the core of this “local militia” was men with obvious military training who had been using those skills recently. These were the spetsnaz men, and they were obviously in charge. Nearly 60 percent of Crimeans then were Russian, and GRU had probably been recruiting for years. Some of these locals admitted that money changed hands and they were glad to be part of the effort that returned control of Crimea to Mother Russia. When you use armed amateurs, you must expect this sort of thing, and these comments did not sidetrack the takeover plan. The armed men were obviously briefed, and most would not talk to reporters or even let journalists get close. But a few of these gunmen just could not resist a reporter with a camera crew looking for a few snappy comments for the evening news. Some of the anonymous armed men may be civilian contractors (which Russia exports to some parts of the world), and some were just pro-Russian veterans willing to take a gun and endure a bit of risk.
Currently, new FSB military units, consisting of a dozen to several hundred men, will be sent where needed and then withdrawn once things calm down. This began with a plan for one of two senior counterintelligence officials to take control of the FSB. This is to enhance new FSB activities, including deploying mobile fire groups equipped with heavy machine guns to counter Ukrainian drone strikes. These units, sometimes staffed by army reservists and sometimes by people outside the military, were created in regions far from the Ukrainian border, including Leningrad, Karelia, North Ossetia, Siberia, and Archangel. In occupied Donetsk, FSB run mobile fire groups are integrated into the “Donbas Dome” air defense system, and similar units have been formed in North Ossetia. This marks a shift from the FSB’s traditional intelligence and counterintelligence roles toward direct combat and security operations.
Countrywide, the FSB has gained massive legal powers, including authority to control foreign access to Russian ports, regulate scientific cooperation with foreigners, and oversee new detention facilities within its system. These measures, combined with control over sea routes, property nationalization, and restrictions on information, are described as signs that Russia is preparing for a protracted confrontation with the West, with the FSB playing a central role.
While not an official “militarization” in the sense of creating a standing army, the FSB’s growing involvement in armed operations, its integration into regional defense systems, and its expanded legal powers suggest a militarized expansion of its mission. This aligns with broader Kremlin strategies to centralize security control and prepare for long term conflict, even without formal martial law.
The leadership reorganization is expected to be finalized by the end of 2026. Armed FSB members will exercise jurisdiction over ports and other facilities. Overall, the FSB will exercise more authority on the ground in key areas of Russia.

FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, September 28, 2026 - 04:17 pm: Edit

Morale: Dwell Time and Current Carrier Crew Problems
September 25, 2026: Several aircraft carriers have spent more time at sea than the normal 180-day/six-month tour. Carrier sailors are told that tours may be longer, depending on the situation. Sailors can easily see that the longest deployment was 332 days aboard the carrier Midway off Vietnam in the 1970s.
This brings us back to the 2026 media uproar when sailors recently complained about the 266 days the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) spent at sea. Everyone on the carrier was without shore leave for 250 days, except for two brief port calls that didn’t allow many sailors ashore. Families of sailors reported emails and phone calls revealing extreme fatigue, mental health problems, and difficulties getting sailors to concentrate on their work. Meanwhile, earlier this year the USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78) spent 326 days at sea before returning to the Norfolk Virginian shipyard for maintenance. Six years ago, the carrier Lincoln was at sea for 295 days.
Normally, carriers get brief shore leave every month or so. At the same time, the senior sailors, especially the Chiefs and the COB (senior Chief of the Boat), will warn sailors that, depending on the global situation, carriers can be forced to stay at sea for as long as it takes. Sailor recruits soon learned this policy, and a recruit with a relative who has served remembers stories of extremely long tours at sea and how sailors are repeatedly told this is what they signed up for and that they should suck it up and earn their pay.
Earlier, the U.S. Navy adopted a policy of adjusting its ship schedules so that crews spend at least half their time in port. This is called "dwell time." With about 60 percent of Navy personnel married, time in port matters. The Navy has already eliminated its decades-old policy of six-month deployments at sea. These deployments were far away and kept sailors cut off from home. The current policy keeps ships closer to their home port, making it easier to "surge" more warships in an emergency. In the past, ships returning from a six-month cruise usually needed a month or so of maintenance and repairs in port, with much of the crew taking leave. Military personnel get 30 days of leave (vacation) each year. Thus, ships returning from the old six-month cruises were out of action for a month or more. This policy eliminated most of that, and more ships were always available. The new 50/50 policy uses many shorter trips. Carriers only go out for a week or two at a time, so their crews can get some practice.
FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, September 28, 2026 - 04:18 pm: Edit

Air Weapons: TigerShark Cruise Missile
September 25, 2026: A British firm recently announced TigerShark, a long-range attack drone that costs less than half a million dollars each. That is a third of what current Tomahawk cruise missiles cost. The American military plans to purchase 28,000 of these less expensive cruise missiles over the next five years. Each costs $450,000, about a third of what current cruise missiles cost. Eventually, the cost per missile will fall to half that price. Manufacturers of cheap missiles include Anduril, which supplies its Barracuda-500; CoAspire, which supplies its Rapidly Adaptable Affordable Cruise Missile; and Zone 5 Technologies, which supplies its Rusty Dagger. These three firms are competing to drive prices down further. This will increase sales to the military, which is rebuilding its missile arsenal to replace heavy missile use during the Iranian War.
Existing American cruise missiles slated for replacement are still being upgraded. Three years ago, the American military placed a multi-year contract for 10,000 GMLRS guided rockets per year through 2026, at a cost of $170,000 each. An unspecified number will be the longer-range SDB version, which uses an SDB glide bomb as a second stage and extends range to 150 kilometers, compared with 70 kilometers for the standard rocket. The SDB uses multiple guidance systems to strike targets, including moving ones, with greater precision. Some SDB versions have been used effectively in Ukraine. Because of growing export orders, plans call for increasing total GMLRS production to 14,000 rockets per year. Ukraine is currently the largest GMLRS user, having received about 3,000 rockets and at least 20 HIMARS launcher vehicles in the past year, making it the largest combat user. U.S. forces previously used GMLRS in Iraq and Afghanistan. GMLRS entered service in 2004, followed by the smaller, truck-mounted HIMARS launcher in 2005. Together, GMLRS and HIMARS have proved popular with a growing number of export customers. GMLR-ER, the longer-range, 150-kilometer version of GMLRS, recently entered service.
Raytheon, the American manufacturer of Tomahawk cruise missiles, has received orders from Japan and Australia for a total of 600 of the new Mark V (5) version of the Tomahawk. Both countries will install the missiles on their warships to provide a long-range guided missile capable of hitting moving targets over 1,000 kilometers away. The Tomahawk has undergone several improvements over the last decade and is now one of the most effective land-attack and anti-ship weapons available to American and allied warships.
In 2020, the U.S. Navy introduced Tomahawk Block 5, the first new version since Block 4 in 2005. The block versions represent a series of individual upgrades that have turned the current Tomahawk into a substantially different cruise missile than the previous block. Block 5's unique new features include the ability to hit ship-sized targets at maximum range (over 1,600 kilometers) using a new target seeker. Block 5 also uses a new warhead with greater penetrating power against large warships and greater effectiveness against all targets. It also has upgraded communication and navigation systems that are more resistant to jamming and other EW (Electronic Warfare) measures. This means Block 5 communications are harder to detect and disrupt. The navigation system can function even with heavy GPS jamming thanks to a more accurate, unjammable INS (Inertial Navigation System). Another notable feature is that Block 5 does not increase the price, which remains between $1 million and $1.5 million per missile, depending on the features. That’s much cheaper than high-speed missiles, which cost three or four times more, are heavier, and have shorter range. The relatively low cost of the Tomahawk makes it effective for more missions, like attacking land targets or being used in large numbers. All Block 4 Tomahawks are being upgraded to Block 5, and the remaining Block 3s will be retired because most were built in the 1990s and are no longer worth the expense of upgrading and refurbishing.
Most Tomahawks in U.S. service are carried and fired from surface ships or nuclear submarines (SSNs) in VLS (Vertical Launch System) cells. There is also a torpedo-launched version, which all British SSNs use. The Tomahawk has quietly become the U.S. fleet's primary offensive weapon.
The RGM-109 Tomahawk Land Attack Missile weighs 1.2 tons, is six meters long, and has a range of 1,600 kilometers. It reaches its target at 600-900 kilometers per hour, flying at an altitude of 17-32 meters, and is propelled by a jet engine generating only 273 kg of thrust. Accuracy is on a par with JDAM (10 meters). The Tomahawk can be reprogrammed in flight to hit another target and carries a digital video camera, allowing someone to check prospective targets.
With Block 4 came the new JMEW (Joint Multi-Effects Warhead System) warhead. This 450 kg warhead is designed mainly to penetrate underground bunkers, but it also delivers excellent blast effects against less robust targets. Exact penetration was not revealed. JMEW uses laser terminal guidance, enabling it to hit within a few meters of its aiming point. JMEW can also hit moving targets, like ships.
When the Tomahawk appeared in 1983, it was one of the first combat UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles), but it wasn't reusable. The Tomahawk has been a primary land-attack weapon for surface ships and submarines since the 1990s. The Navy has manufactured over 6,000 so far. The U.S. Navy has fired over 2,200 in combat and over 600 for training and testing. The U.S. Navy currently has over 3,000 Tomahawks on its warships or in storage. Tomahawk is expected to remain in service until 2040, with older ones refurbished to extend their useful lives. That usually means replacing or upgrading batteries and electronics, along with older mechanical components.
Block 0, 1, and 2 Tomahawks were introduced during the Cold War, which ended in 1991. Some Cold War versions of Tomahawk were optimized for ranges of up to 2,500 kilometers, or for use from aircraft carrying nuclear warheads. These were gone by the time Block 3 entered service in 1994. In between new blocks, there were often major upgrades. Block 4 received a major upgrade in 2012 with the addition of GPS and in-flight remote control. The more recent upgrades improved the guidance system and defensive capabilities against electronic jamming. The Navy recognized the need for these new features in 2015, when it tested the current Block 4 Tomahawk to determine whether its new two-way communications capability could enable it to hit moving targets effectively. The Block 4 did so, but not under combat conditions. That is, not with warships using defensive or electronic weapons to shoot down the incoming missile or mislead its guidance system. One navy test used a nearby aircraft, possibly a drone, to track the target ship's exact location. A satellite could also do that. A fully developed anti-ship capability for the Tomahawk requires regular guidance-system upgrades to let it operate without constant two-way communications.
The U.S. Navy knows the Tomahawk is not the ideal anti-ship missile. Against modern defenses, anti-ship missiles must travel faster than a Tomahawk and have better terminal guidance. The speed problem cannot be fixed, but the Tomahawk could be equipped with a more capable terminal guidance system. That might handle the tracking and targeting needed for guns and missiles designed to knock down anti-ship missiles as they close in. In any event, Tomahawk Block 5 has a way to go before it is a competitive anti-ship missile against modern warships. But developing and testing upgrades will give Tomahawk a useful anti-ship capability without making it the most effective anti-ship missile on the market.
There are apparently novel proposals to use a radically new anti-ship warhead that turns Tomahawk into a two-stage missile, with the warhead making the final attack at much higher speed. That increases the cost and weight of the Tomahawk, a stable, reliable design with extensive combat experience. It was easier to tinker with the guidance system, warhead, and range and develop affordable new capabilities that work. One reason Tomahawk remains useful is its ability to do more reliably and affordably. Many new cruise missile designs can do high-speed attack, but at great expense. Tomahawk can carry out a wide range of missions, many of which do not require high speed or a more elaborate terminal guidance system.
Because of these constant improvements and consistent reliability, American (and other) warships continue to use Tomahawks in combat regularly. Targets tend to be land-based and not mobile. Most of these uses are publicized, but some are not. Several hundred Tomahawks were used in massed attacks against Libya in 2011, which demonstrated the effectiveness of Tomahawks in delivering major airstrikes on short notice, anywhere in the world, without losing more expensive manned aircraft and exposing their pilots to getting shot down and captured. Tomahawk is also an ideal weapon for a potential war in the Pacific against China. This would be a war with long distances between targets, and Tomahawk can handle that, along with many other tasks. The fleet goes to sea with lots of Tomahawks, and quantity matters as much as reliability and a track record of success.
The planned Tomahawk replacement is currently the NGLAW (Next Generation Land Attack Weapon). Development of a Tomahawk successor has been underway since the 1990s, and the current (NGLAW) effort is for a cruise missile that will be heavier (2.2 tons), have a longer range (2,000 kilometers), and carry a larger (1-ton) warhead than the Tomahawk. NGLAW will be stealthier and use a combination of new guidance and targeting systems to improve the chances of success. Price will probably be the key factor, but it is expected to cost at least twice as much as the Tomahawk. NGLAW has been going on for so long because it’s not easy to develop a Tomahawk replacement that justifies the higher weight and cost of a new missile, especially when so many navies are satisfied with updated Tomahawks.
FYEO

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Monday, September 28, 2026 - 04:35 pm: Edit

Simon Whistler at Megaprojects has a decent new video up regarding the current status of CVN-79 USS John F. Kennedy.

USS John F. Kennedy
(Link posted with Steve's permission.)

By A David Merritt (Adm) on Monday, September 28, 2026 - 06:15 pm: Edit

I listened to the BBC last night for news on this, and the reporter was stating that what they were doing was unclear, as there was no way to damage the airbase from outside the fence....

I suspect that all of us can see how stupid that statement was.

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Monday, September 28, 2026 - 06:37 pm: Edit

Has there been any reporting on just what the intent was?

Reports of three vans may mean three car bombs (using vans instead of a sedan or smaller vehicle.)

Or it simply was a scout or reconnaissance mission to find out if there was a vulnerable access path that could be exploited.

There is a report that the three individuals who were arrested, have already been released. Don’t know what that means in The U.K. But in the U.S. it could be interpreted as “less serious” which could mean the five were not caught with truck/van loads of explosives as was reported early Sunday.

Apparently one member of Parliament is attacking the tipster, accusing her of racism. (No other details, can’t confirm it at this point, so use your own judgment.)

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, September 28, 2026 - 09:47 pm: Edit

As far as it goes, a hole in a B1 from a .50-cal sniper rifle would be ... a serious matter.

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Monday, September 28, 2026 - 10:34 pm: Edit

Steve, according to Sky News, (Australian?), the trucks were parked across the street from the “Tipster” lady’s home(inside the boundary of the village).

There is one report saying that the location of the Trucks, when the local constabulary responded (an hour after the call to 999 was made) was in line with and within sight of the air fields runway. (Not sure if both points are true.)

A number of celebrities (Nigel Farage, for example) are making critical comments about the handling of this incident, and even more critical comments about the investigation.

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Tuesday, September 29, 2026 - 04:34 am: Edit

I'll put my hand up - I have no idea 'what happened or what was planned'.

All 5 had been arrested under the "Explosives Act and on suspicion of preparing a terrorist act" have now been released.

So either the evidence is fairly flimsy.... or not at all - as the Police had up to 14 days to hold and then charge or release them.

Held for 36 Hours or so and released on Bail does not seem a strong case?

Residents are slowly being allowed back into their homes.

By Carl-Magnus Carlsson (Hardcore) on Tuesday, September 29, 2026 - 04:45 am: Edit

"After the suspects’ release on Monday it emerged that no explosive material had been found." -The Guardian

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Tuesday, September 29, 2026 - 11:02 am: Edit

Suspicion is not an uncommon reaction by police when vehicles not normally seen near a military base are … seen near a military base.

They might have been saboteurs on a recon mission, although such teams are customarily not trying to attract attention.

They might have been painters looking for the house they were contracted to paint. The British system for assigning mailbox numbers on rural roads being based on 2000 year old cow paths and requiring ancient runic scrolls to decipher.

Maybe the police were previously tracking this or a similar group, or maybe Trump repeated something he was told that had yet to be confirmed.

Maybe they were a film crew from an independent journalist outfit.

Still, three identical vans is … just weird.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Tuesday, September 29, 2026 - 04:11 pm: Edit

Winning: The Leave Islam Movement
September 29, 2026: Israel is one of the world’s leading arms exporters, with nearly $200 billion in exports in 2025, which was a third more than in 2024. Israel has had five years of growing arms exports. Israel’s share of the global arms market between 2021 and 2025 made it the world's seventh-largest arms exporter. Air defense systems, missiles, and rockets accounted for 29% of exports in 2025, while surveillance and optoelectronics rose to 22%.
These combat-proven weapons went to more than three dozen nations worldwide. About twelve percent of Israeli exports are weapons. That’s a substantial contribution to the economy and provides jobs for over 100,000 people. And then there’s the population factor. In 2025, exports were $263 per Israeli, six times that of the Americans and 19 times that of Russia. Adjusted for GDP, Israel’s arms-export economy is over eight times larger than the United States.
Major Israeli arms manufacturers like Elbit Systems, IAI (Israel Aerospace Industries), and Rafael produce a wide range of military technologies, including missile defense systems, drones, precision-guided munitions, and cyber-defense equipment. Their rapid growth stems from nearly 80 years of frequent combat experience. Government support and the efforts of hundreds of thousands of Israeli soldiers, weapons producers, and government support played a role. Collaboration with foreign partners, particularly the United States, in designing and manufacturing new weapons.
Europe has been the largest customer for 36–41% of exports. Asia-Pacific accounted for 32–40% of exports, with India as a major client, purchasing drones, air defense systems, and other advanced technologies. Middle East and North Africa, including the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco, represented 12–15%. This was made possible by the Abraham Accords peace treaty between Israel and a growing number of Arab nations. Americas and Africa accounted for around 2–13%.
Individual nations purchased weapons to protect themselves. Germany, for example, wanted the Arrow-3 missile defense system to deal with potential Russian missile attacks. India spent about $10 billion on air defense systems and drones
Cyber and electronic warfare systems: Advanced radar, signal intelligence, and jamming technologies, as well as Command, control, communications, and computing systems. These increasingly use AI, optics, and targeting systems using these technologies
Exports also provide Israel with strategic leverage, locking countries into long-term defense relationships. At the same time, the Americans play a critical role in Israel’s arms industry through Foreign Military Financing (FMF) and co-development of weapons systems, such as the Arrow-3 missile. Germany and Italy also supply components and technology, while Israel maintains a robust domestic production base to reduce reliance on imports. These partnerships enhance Israel’s global competitiveness and allow it to expand into new markets despite political controversies
Israel has established itself as a global leader in arms exports, combining advanced technology, operational experience, and strategic partnerships. Its exports are concentrated in Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, with a growing emphasis on high-tech missile defense, large surveillance drones and smaller attack drones, and other precision munitions. Despite international criticism and regional conflicts, Israel’s defense industry continues to expand, making it a key player in the global arms market.


Israel: More Arms Exports
September 29, 2026: Israel is one of the world’s leading arms exporters, with nearly $200 billion in exports in 2025, which was a third more than in 2024. Israel has had five years of growing arms exports. Israel’s share of the global arms market between 2021 and 2025 made it the world's seventh-largest arms exporter. Air defense systems, missiles, and rockets accounted for 29% of exports in 2025, while surveillance and optoelectronics rose to 22%.
These combat-proven weapons went to more than three dozen nations worldwide. About twelve percent of Israeli exports are weapons. That’s a substantial contribution to the economy and provides jobs for over 100,000 people. And then there’s the population factor. In 2025, exports were $263 per Israeli, six times that of the Americans and 19 times that of Russia. Adjusted for GDP, Israel’s arms-export economy is more than eight times that of the United States, with European arms exports showing similar figures.
Major Israeli arms manufacturers like Elbit Systems, IAI (Israel Aerospace Industries), and Rafael produce a wide range of military technologies, including missile defense systems, drones, precision-guided munitions, and cyber-defense equipment. Their rapid growth stems from nearly 90 years of frequent combat experience. Government support and the efforts of hundreds of thousands of Israeli soldiers, weapons producers, and government support played a role. Collaboration with foreign partners, particularly the United States, in designing and manufacturing new weapons.
Europe has been the largest customer for 36–41% of exports. Asia-Pacific accounted for 32–40% of exports, with India as a major client, purchasing drones, air defense systems, and other advanced technologies. Middle East and North Africa, including the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco, represented 12–15%. This was made possible by the Abraham Accords peace treaty between Israel and a growing number of Arab nations. Americas and Africa accounted for around 2–13%.
Individual nations purchased weapons to protect themselves. Germany, for example, wanted the Arrow-3 missile defense system to deal with potential Russian missile attacks. India spent about $10 billion for air defense systems and drones
Cyber and electronic warfare systems: Advanced radar, signal intelligence, and jamming technologies as well as Command, control, communications, and computing systems. These increasingly use AI, optics, and targeting systems using these technologies
Exports also provide Israel with strategic leverage, locking countries into long-term defense relationships. At the same time, the Americans play a critical role in Israel’s arms industry through Foreign Military Financing (FMF) and co-development of weapons systems, such as the Arrow-3 missile. Germany and Italy also supply components and technology, while Israel maintains a robust domestic production base to reduce reliance on imports. These partnerships enhance Israel’s global competitiveness and allow it to expand into new markets despite political controversies
Israel has established itself as a global leader in arms exports, combining advanced technology, operational experience, and strategic partnerships. Its exports are concentrated in Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, with a growing emphasis on high-tech missile defense, large surveillance drones and smaller attack drones, and other precision munitions. Despite international criticism and regional conflicts, Israel’s defense industry continues to expand, making it a key player in the global arms market
FYEO