Putin has ordered an increase in the size of Russia's active duty armed forces by 15,000 men.

Meanwhile, Ukraine has lately been inflicting about 10,000 casualties per week. Most of these presumably decrease the size of Russia's active duty armed forces, though some wounded do return, and a small number are captured, exchanged, and returned to the army.

The upshot is that Putin can't avoid some type of mobilization to get the numbers he wants.

By Ryan Opel (Ryan) on Tuesday, September 29, 2026 - 10:12 pm: Edit

Russian President Vladimir Putin signed an executive order setting the total authorized strength of the Russian Armed Forces at 2,441,630 personnel, including 1,550,500 active-duty service members.

The last time the Russian army was this big was in 1992 right after the fall of the Soviet Union.

By Nick Blank (Nickgb) on Tuesday, September 29, 2026 - 10:52 pm: Edit

Apparently the men arrested at RAF Fairford were young British men from London trying to syphon diesel fuel into barrels in the three vans from a diesel storage area.

This from unofficial military sources to a British news website. No explosives found and the investigation is ongoing.

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Wednesday, September 30, 2026 - 04:07 am: Edit

To add to the confusion - it has now been confirmed one of the five men phoned the police nearly 60 minutes prior to the 'local woman' who also called the police.


I can't see anything about Diesel theft - but perhaps it might just be as simple as that - the group found some Diesel and was just going to steal it?

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Wednesday, September 30, 2026 - 05:02 pm: Edit

Air Defense: American Drone Interceptors
September 30, 2026: The United States has been rapidly seeking to develop its own drone systems based on the success of drone warfare in Ukraine. So far, the Americans have developed and tested several drone interceptors. These include Bumblebee, Perseus, and Merops/Surveyor Harpe. Priority has been given to interceptors because U.S. forces are already under attack by Iranian and Yemeni Houthi drones.
The U.S. currently has several drone interceptor systems, including the Bumblebee V1/V2 physical collision interceptors; the Perseus Harpe has a 2-kilometer range and collides with targets, while the Merops/Surveyor high speed explosive interceptor drones can destroy one or more drones within range of their explosion.
Bumblebee V1 & V2 are FPV (First Person View) drones that physically collide with incoming drones. Delta does this using video from surveillance drones and Ukrainian troops feeding back to the Delta battle management system by capturing video from surveillance drones to provide overall battlefield data, with all Ukrainian troops using the system. The system detects Russian troop positions and includes them on the battle map in real time. This enables automated warfare, in which enemy targets are assigned to specific Ukrainian units, which then carry out the attacks. This has caused many Russian troops to spend most of their time hiding from the Delta system, because detection usually means death.
Using an AI/Artificial Intelligence system, the Ukrainians can track over 10,000 Russian weapons systems, troop positions, and drone operators each week. The map of these contacts is continually updated as the Russians move or are destroyed. At the same time, Ukrainian commanders can also see the positions and movements of their own troops. This has dramatically reduced the incidents of friendly fire when Ukrainian soldiers are hit by Ukrainian drones or artillery fire.
One of last year’s innovations in drone warfare was the Ukrainian use of AI for drone targeting systems. The AI drone contains a targeting system that finds targets. The AI drone operator confirms which targets are real and, once a target is confirmed, the AI targeting system needs no further communication. It resists all forms of jamming.
FPV drones have radically changed modern warfare. These drones are a perpetual threat to armored vehicles and infantry. Each FPV drone costs less than a thousand dollars. Operators use the drone's camera to see what is below and find targets. Armed FPV operators are several kilometers away to decide when their FPV drones will drop explosives on an armored vehicle, which has thinner armor on top, or infantry in the open or in trenches. To do so, drone operators often work in pairs, with one flying behind the other and focusing on the big picture while seeking a likely target. When the reconnaissance drone finds a target, the armed drone is directed to it. The two FPV drone operators are usually in the same room or tent and can take control of new drones, which are lined up and brought outside for launch when needed. Reconnaissance drones are often unarmed so they can spend more time in the air searching for a target.
The Perseus Harpe Interceptor weighs about 36 kg and has a range of about two kilometers collides with incoming drones. Nearby units supply target information using control systems like Delta.
The Merops / Surveyor Interceptor Drone is a fast propeller driven explosive interceptor. Top speed of nearly 300 kilometers an hour/75 meters per second. This interceptor is designed to destroy swarms of Shahed-136 drones. Unfortunately, like most items produced by the American defense industry, each Merops costs about $15,00o and can deal with cruise missiles and large attack drones.
FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Wednesday, September 30, 2026 - 05:03 pm: Edit

Information Warfare: Deadly Ukrainian Delta System
September 30, 2026: Before the Russian invasion, the Ukrainian A2724 organization developed the Delta battle management system. This system was made public in October 2022. Delta is a cloud-based platform that combines real-time data from satellite stills/video, radar, drone reconnaissance, and HUMINT (civilian and military reports) from the combat zone, displaying it on an interactive digital display. Ukrainian Defense officials point out that Delta is a digital battle management system that gives Ukrainian soldiers, battalions, and brigades a major advantage, as it enables them to observe the combat zone live and quickly know what has to be done next while automatically sharing information within a unit or, if necessary, with NATO allies. This produced dramatic results on the battlefield. Before Delta, once you identified a Russian target, it took about three days to launch an attack. With Delta, it takes seconds, or up to a minute in difficult circumstances.
Delta is a software-based system that can run on any desktop, laptop, tablet, or, in a limited fashion, on a smartphone. The system requires no special hardware and runs on laptops, tablets, or smartphones. That means any soldier or civilian operating near the fighting can contribute or quickly use Delta data. NATO specialists who have seen and used Delta call it militarized Google and urge NATO militaries to adopt and use the system quickly.
Delta does this by capturing video from surveillance drones to provide overall battlefield data, with all Ukrainian troops using the system. The system detects Russian troop positions and adds them to the battle map in real time. This enabled automated warfare, in which enemy targets were assigned to specific Ukrainian units, which then carried out the attacks. This has caused many Russian troops to spend most of their time hiding from the Delta system, because detection usually means death.
Using an AI/Artificial Intelligence system, the Ukrainians can track over 10,000 Russian weapons systems, troop positions, and drone operators each week. The map of these contacts is continually updated as the Russians move or are destroyed. At the same time, Ukrainian commanders can also see the positions and movements of their own troops. This has dramatically reduced the incidents of friendly fire when Ukrainian soldiers are hit by Ukrainian drones or artillery fire.
Earlier this year, Ukrainian drone operators joined in a NATO military exercise in Estonia. As the wargame proceeded, the NATO officers were shocked to see two of their battalions hit repeatedly and rendered ineffective. Ukrainians urged NATO to adopt Delta or develop something similar. After the demonstration, NATO commanders clamored for more information and helpsetting up their own Delta systems.
One of last year’s innovations in drone warfare was the Ukrainian use of AI for drone targeting systems. The AI drone contains a targeting system that finds targets. The AI drone operator confirms which targets are real and, once a target is confirmed, the AI targeting system needs no further communication. It resists all forms of jamming.
Modern warfare has been radically changed by the introduction of First Person View/FPV drones. These drones are an omnipresent aerial threat to armored vehicles and infantry. Each FPV drone costs less than $1,000. Operators use the drone's camera to see below and find targets. Armed FPV operators are several kilometers away to decide when their FPV drones will drop explosives on an armored vehicle, which has thinner armor on top, or infantry in the open or in trenches. To do so, drone operators often work in pairs, with one flying behind the other and focusing on the big picture while seeking a likely target. When the reconnaissance drone finds a target, the armed drone is directed to it. The two FPV drone operators are usually in the same room or tent and can take control of new drones, which are lined up and brought outside for launch when needed. The reconnaissance drones are often unarmed so they can stay in the air longer while searching for a target.
FYEO

By Carl-Magnus Carlsson (Hardcore) on Wednesday, September 30, 2026 - 07:47 pm: Edit

"Pete Hegseth announced on Wednesday that Elon Musk will co-lead a government project to study the future of warfare, marking the SpaceX CEO’s first return to government since he ran the chaotic, so-called “department of government efficiency”, or Doge. Musk will be joined by Palmer Luckey, CEO of the defense tech company Anduril, and Newt Gingrich, the former Republican speaker of the House" -The Guardian


"We have put our top forces on it"

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Wednesday, September 30, 2026 - 07:56 pm: Edit

Partisan sarcasm in that area is the last thing the US needs. The fact is that the US is very badly behind both Ukraine and Russia in the area of drone warfare.

The failure is bipartisan.

If you want Russia to win, by all means keep pointing the finger at the other guy.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Wednesday, September 30, 2026 - 08:36 pm: Edit

Ahem, the US is not "badly behind" anyone in drones. We had drones first. Ukraine's drones mostly started with US technology they were given. The US has capabilities that Ukraine and Russia do not, but there are lots of kinds of drones.

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Wednesday, September 30, 2026 - 08:53 pm: Edit

One could measure "behind" in terms of quantity:

Pentagon says US industry still years from matching Ukraine's wartime drone output (Reuters, July)

Or quality. I asked Google and its AI said:

American commercial and military drones have generally underperformed or struggled in the war in Ukraine (citing cost, vulnerability to EW, and lack of adaptibility)

or in terms of military effectiveness:

(WSJ, August) Ukrainian drones were doing this so quickly with U.S. vehicles that they had to be sent back into the exercises as new units, or “re-spawned,” . . .

or in terms of drone defense . . . how would the US perform against nightly attacks such as the ones Ukraine faces?

or in terms of soldier training . . . which country's individual soldiers do you think are better able to survive an FPV attack?

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Wednesday, September 30, 2026 - 11:30 pm: Edit

Google AI, now, there’s a reliable source. Uh huh. Right.

By Carl-Magnus Carlsson (Hardcore) on Thursday, October 01, 2026 - 12:44 am: Edit

Well, one thing is sure; those involved in a life or death struggle are under a pressure to innovate and produce that is not felt by countries in peace.
The US have used and benefited from their drones a long time now against non-peer adversaries abroad. That is practically peacetime when it comes to pressure to evolve ones capability.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Thursday, October 01, 2026 - 04:39 am: Edit

Seriously, Bill, you're counting apples against oranges.

Is the US "way behind" in drone technology? NO, but there are a lot of different kinds of drones. We're behind in some areas, light years ahead in others.

Does Ukraine have drones that the US does not? SURE.

Does the US have drones that Ukraine does not? SURE.

Are the US and Ukraine exchanging drone technology actively? YES.

Are US troops as skilled with drones as a country that has been using drones for two years? NO, but the US military is working on this.

Does this US have anything like enough production infrastructure or ammunition inventory in the drone category? NO, but Trump is working on it harder than any previous president.

Also remember that even "mainstream news" includes writers who only think they are experts, writers who have no idea how much they do not know, writers with agendas, and writers just repeating popular themes that consumers love to read or fear may be true.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Thursday, October 01, 2026 - 05:51 am: Edit

DUBAI AIR HIJACK

Since no one else has mentioned it...

An FlyDubai airliner was en route to Tel Aviv with a bunch of Israelis on board.

The copilot (an Omani) stabbed the pilot as they approached the Israeli border, apparently intending to crash the plane, perhaps into something important, perhaps just into the ground. He put the plane into a dive and dropped 15,000 or so feet (reports vary).

Passengers and a spare air crew tried to break into the cockpit, but could not. Cockpits these days are designed that way.

The badly wounded pilot reached for an emergency switch and unlocked the cockpit.

Passengers then dragged the copilot out of his seat, while the reserve aircrew took control and avoided a crash, then landed the plane safely in Saudi Arabia.

The passengers were taken to Tel Aviv on another aircraft a few hours later.

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Thursday, October 01, 2026 - 08:24 am: Edit

"Behind" in terms of the military effectiveness of our drone arm today.

Western drones are underwhelming on the Ukrainian battlefield -- The Economist, 2025

The US did make some use of drones against Iran. But I'm unaware of any evidence of an extensive drone-based campaign such as Ukraine routinely uses. And Iran is a weaker adversary than Russia.

Obviously my sourcing is imperfect. But is there sourcing in the opposite direction? If you have evidence that US drones are generally effective or liked in Ukraine, I'd very much love to see it.

By MarkSHoyle (Bolo) on Thursday, October 01, 2026 - 09:18 am: Edit

Considering RC aircraft has been a huge hobby in the U.S. for 50+ years, it's just a matter of manufacturing for the military...

By Carl-Magnus Carlsson (Hardcore) on Thursday, October 01, 2026 - 09:23 am: Edit

The "bang for bucks" race is won by Ukraine and Russia. They started with the cheapest civilian drones, and micro light a/c, they could buy, and evolved them. Remember the 3d printed fins for the hand grenades they dropped? Or the flame variant armed with Iron and aluminum granulate?

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Thursday, October 01, 2026 - 12:00 pm: Edit

The Economist Magazine is a British international news and current affairs publication that covers world politics, business, economics, science, and culture.

It is neither a Defense Trade Journal, nor is it a reputable primary source of Technology information.

Some would say that is turning into a opinion / Editorial platform.

My personal view is it should be considered part of the “Mainstream Media”.

That said, any opinions they publish concerning Drones used in the Russia Ukraine War are just that, opinions, not empirical Data or even a statement of fact.

By Alan Trevor (Thyrm) on Thursday, October 01, 2026 - 12:14 pm: Edit

Jeff,

Out of curiosity, is there any unclassified source, accessible by the general public, that you consider so accurate and reliable (regarding the subjects under discussion) that it would qualify as "empirical data" rather than opinion?

I certainly regard some sources as better, more likely to be reasonably correct, than others. But I know of none that meet the bar set above.

By Alan Trevor (Thyrm) on Thursday, October 01, 2026 - 12:29 pm: Edit

I should add, I suppose, that classified sources are often wrong as well; or at least they were when I was an F-111 Weapon System Officer / Electronic Warfare Officer during the good old bad old days of the Cold War.

By Douglas Lampert (Dlampert) on Thursday, October 01, 2026 - 12:38 pm: Edit

I'm perfectly willing to believe that other places are, in practice, better at drones than we are.

IIRC, we started building drones because the Israelis were using souped up remote control aircraft for reconisance over Syrian AAM betteries. "Go ahead, shoot all you want, our sensor platform is substantially cheaper than your missile."

The resulting US effort to build drones ended up with a multimillion dollar platform, it was much more capable than the Israeli platform, but it was also much more expensive than a ground to air missile.

Mary has been retired for some time now, and I can still get her to talk about people trying to get them to arm what were supposed to be small recon drones you could issue to infantry (you can build a small armed drone for the infantry, but it's a separate mission with somewhat different requirements than a light recon drone, recon needs more loiter time). Or before that, she was involved in the effort to build a light reconnaissance helicopter to replace the Kiowa, and they kept having trouble with the military wanting to put close to a ton of munitions on it along with heavy armor. Somehow, they couldn't get a design that fit those requirements and still qualified as a light helicopter.

Then there's the whole US navy inability to build a working frigate or litoral combat ship.

The US military has a real problem building a system with a limited purpose and low cost. You can quite literally hand us the design, have it be something manufactured out of US built parts, and our military will be UNABLE TO BUILD IT! Because perfectly fit for purpose isn't good enough unless the purpose is "do everything".

By Carl-Magnus Carlsson (Hardcore) on Thursday, October 01, 2026 - 01:44 pm: Edit

It has been suggested the US would do well to move all procurement of arms and equipment into a new agency.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Thursday, October 01, 2026 - 02:20 pm: Edit

A new agency would be as corrupt as the current one.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Thursday, October 01, 2026 - 02:23 pm: Edit

Let us remember...

30 years ago the US sent an autonomous drone on a one-way non-stop flight from California to Australia and it landed within minutes of schedule. No pilot, remote or otherwise. Ukraine still cannot do that.

20 years ago the US waged a drone campaign of targeted assassinations of named terrorists with spectacular accuracy. Ukraine still cannot do that despite having more Russian generals available than the US target terrorists. Ukraine, today, uses human-driven car bombs for such things.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Thursday, October 01, 2026 - 02:35 pm: Edit

Forces: What Prompted the Mongol Conquests
October 1, 2026: Sometime around 1160 AD, a Mongol chieftain named Yesugei saw his first son, Temugin, born. After working with powerful tribal leaders named Jamukha and Toghrul. The trio built a powerful alliance on their portion of the Great Eurasian Steppe. Eventually, the triumvirate fell apart with Temujin defeated in 1187 and seeking refuge, as many Mongol leaders did, with the Chinese Jin dynasty. Nine years later, Temujin returned, defeated his enemies, and by 1206 ruled the Mongolian steppe. Temujin also renamed himself Genghis Khan and began reforming the Mongol tribes, introducing well-thought-out unit structures for his army and creating a meritocracy out of the many competing Mongol leaders. That meant if you followed orders and won, you could be promoted. If not, you could keep trying until you succeeded or failed and were cast aside.
Another major obstacle was the Chinese Jin Dynasty and the interference they brought to Mongolian military and political affairs. The Jin dynasty also descended from Manchurian tribes and regularly interfered with steppe battles and politics. The Great Jin dynasty lasted 115 years, until 1234. While they began as nomads, they eventually became like the Chinese they ruled. The Jin Dynasty ruled northeastern China, Manchuria, and portions of Siberia.
The Jin pitted their tributary tribes, such as the Mongols and Tatars, against one another to divide and rule them. The Jin initially supported the weaker Mongols against the Tatars, but when the Mongols grew stronger, the Jin switched sides in 1161. Nonetheless, Jin support had given the Mongols the boost they needed to organize and arm their warriors.
As Genghis Khan began his conquests, the Jin were intimidated to the point where they agreed to become an ally and persuade others to do likewise. Genghis also went after the Tatars, who had poisoned his father. Together, the Mongols and Jin crushed the Tatars in 1196, and the Mongols absorbed them. The Mongols later attacked and brought down the Jin Dynasty in 1234.
Genghis's great conquests would not have been possible without motivating the hundreds of thousands of young men who followed him. Genghis assured his followers that they would not only become wealthy but also gain sexual access to all the conquered women. As nomads, the Mongols had relatively few luxuries or material goods. Now, as conquerors, they had access to all the comforts of a settled society. Conquered cities were rebuilt to accommodate the Mongol conquerors, and Mongols enjoyed the relatively luxurious life of city dwellers. Some Mongol soldiers settled in conquered cities as garrisons. To keep his army going, Genghis conquered and absorbed neighboring nomadic armies. To keep all this functioning, Genghis had to keep conquering more territory and cities. The conquered cities remained centers of commerce and industry, run by people the Mongols had enslaved. If the conquered people cooperated, they prospered; if not, Genghis returned, destroyed the city, and enslaved the survivors. This did not happen often, as word soon spread through the known world of what happened to those who opposed Genghis.
Genghis was content with his East Asian empire until his forces encountered Shah Ala ad-Din Muhammad, ruler of the Khwarezmid Empire in what is now Iran, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan. Initially, Genghis Khan sought peace and trade with the Khwarezmian shah, telling them he was the master of the lands of the rising sun, while he ruled those of the setting sun. Let us forge a treaty of friendship and peace. Shah Muhammad accepted this treaty, but when a Mongol trade caravan arrived in the Khwarezmian city of Otrar in 1219, the Mongol traders were massacred, and their goods were stolen.
An angry Genghis Khan sent diplomats to Shah Muhammad to demand restitution for the caravan. Shah Muhammad responded by beheading the Mongol diplomats and sending the heads back to Genghis. This proved to be an epic error in judgment. By 1221, Genghis and his armies had killed Shah Muhammad, chased his son into Indian exile, and destroyed the vast Khwarezmid Empire.
When Genghis died in 1227, his four sons had already been assigned to lead armies in different directions to avoid a Mongolian civil war. Jochi went north and founded the Golden Horde that would rule Russia. Tolui turned south and sacked Baghdad, the seat of the Abbasid Caliphate. Genghis Khan appointed his third son, Ogodei, as his successor and ruler of the Mongol homelands. Chagatai was left to rule over Central Asia, consolidating the Mongol victory over Khwarezmid lands. Meanwhile, back in Mongolia, the situation was rather more dismal. With most of the men now settled in their conquered territories, the women, children, and elderly left behind lived in relative poverty. But at least they did not have to fear invasion, for Genghis had eliminated or subdued them all. The Mongols in Mongolia returned to being what Mongols had been for centuries: hunters, herders, and traders.
FYEO