The list seems awfully long for targeted diesel fuel order. Methinks there is more to it.

"Sec. 111. Prohibition on importing, and sanctions with respect to, uranium from the Russian Federation." ???

More grist for the conspiracy theorists...

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Saturday, October 17, 2026 - 11:55 am: Edit

I think he ignored our (spiritual) letter, Steve.

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Saturday, October 17, 2026 - 07:00 pm: Edit

In other news:

China’s Stock and Bond Markets have had a bad week.


Stock Market Changes

• Tech and AI Sell-Off:

Chinese tech and hardware stocks turned into some of the biggest global laggards as the AI trade stumbled. The Nasdaq-style Star50 Index tumbled nearly 40% over the half-year, and major chipmakers like MetaX Integrated Circuits and Moore Threads Technology have shed about half of their value. Bloomberg.

• Weekly Index Declines:

Over the week ending October 16–17, 2026, the Shanghai Composite declined 2.56% (closing at 3,716.3 on Friday after a slight daily bounce), while the Shenzhen Component plunged 6.64% to hit over-one-year lows.
• Policy Intervention: In response to the drop, Beijing stepped in to stabilize the markets by urging state funds and select companies to purchase shares and asking investors to curb selling. Reuters

Bond Market Changes

• Falling Yields: China's 10-year government bond yields hovered near fresh multi-month/2025-lows, trading around 1.66% to 1.67%.
• Drivers: The rally in Chinese sovereign debt was driven by strong export growth ($938 billion trade surplus in the first nine months), a sluggish domestic economy, and safe-haven demand.
• Record Spread: This drop pushed the yield gap between Chinese and U.S. government bonds to a record wide margin, with China's 10-year yield sitting more than 350 basis points below comparable U.S. Treasuries. Meanwhile, the People's Bank of China announced plans to further open financial markets and promote yuan bonds as eligible global collateral. Reuters.

There are people who disagree, but this sort of pattern of economic activity is not a sign of a healthy growing economy.

The one bright spot appears to be growth of foreign exports, but note, the current tariffs structure is not helping China.

By Carl-Magnus Carlsson (Hardcore) on Sunday, October 18, 2026 - 02:34 pm: Edit

The restrictions on Starshield (starlink) is still in effect. Three news media, Reuters, Axios, The Telegraph(UK), report basically that Elon Musk proposed the restrictions to Trump, and that the later agreed.

Long range drone attacks on Russia are unaffected but Ukraines ability to defend themselves inside their own borders are degraded.

Musk may hide behind company policy, but he has painted a target on his chest, and I am not sure he realises that.

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Sunday, October 18, 2026 - 02:59 pm: Edit

Well, with France riotinng and looting, Trump/Zelensky falling out and the Canadian Military Baee deaths - what else will go wrong this week?

By Carl-Magnus Carlsson (Hardcore) on Monday, October 19, 2026 - 07:04 am: Edit

"Donald J. Trump

@realDonald Trump

My decision on Russia is a very simple one. I am in the process of negotiating Peace in the war between Russia and Ukraine, and don't want to do anything that will drive, foolishly, Russia away from the bargaining table. Great progress is being made, and that includes current hostage negotiations! Signing that document at this time will do that, and I can sign it later, or any time that I want! Perhaps more importantly, Russia is doing very little, if anything, to help the Islamic Republic of Iran, compared to what they could be doing, and I want to keep it that way, and will, unless stupid people get in the way. Lastly, Zelenskyy is using Diesel Refineries in Russia as a target, knowing that these attacks are seriously hurting the world diesel markets, including those in the United States. Farmers, ranchers, and businesses of all kinds are suffering greatly from this, but Russia is, nevertheless, sending, at a low price, millions of barrels of diesel to the World. Zelenskyy doesn't care, and frankly, with all of the money that Europe is famously giving him, and that Crooked Joe Biden gave him in the past, he doesn't want to end this war, and probably never did. He could have made a better deal two years ago than he can now. His country is in shambles, a large portion of his land is lost, his oceans and seas are gone, and his male population is low, wounded, and/or dead. I WANT THIS WAR END!

Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J.TRUMP

3.73k ReTruths

12.9k Likes

Oct 18, 2026, 1:36 PM"

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Monday, October 19, 2026 - 08:41 am: Edit

Meanwhile, per the Wall Street Journal:

Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed during his conversation with U.S. President Donald Trump, which took place on October 9, to hold a summit meeting with Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping to discuss the future of Ukraine. The summit would not include Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

The roles of Vyacheslav Molotov and Joachim von Ribbentrop are being reprised, I see, with Ukraine relegated to play the part of Poland.

By Carl-Magnus Carlsson (Hardcore) on Monday, October 19, 2026 - 10:10 am: Edit

But do they hold the cards? I doubt that.

By Ted Fay (Catwhoeatsphoto) on Monday, October 19, 2026 - 11:25 am: Edit

---

Quote:

Well, with France riotinng and looting, Trump/Zelensky falling out and the Canadian Military Baee deaths - what else will go wrong this week?

---

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Monday, October 19, 2026 - 11:44 am: Edit

Trump fancies himself as a “deal maker”.

The economy’s of both China and Russia are shadows of their former selves. The military of both nations have been shown to be less effective than western nations and Russian naval strength is arguably only a fraction of what they started with back in the summer of 2022.

China is suffering from the loss of both Iranian and Venezuela oil shipments (at steep discounted prices) and unprepared to pay world oil prices. (This is known as a “budget buster”.)

Any “reasonable” leader of a nation in trouble would welcome assistance.

It could be that the reports of both Putin’s and Xi Jing Ping health are true, and both want to cement their “legacy” with a successful summit meeting.

It could also be true that they want to “double team” trump and force some sort of “pay off” (read as “tribute”) to avoid some as yet unspecified threat of negative consequences that both Putin and Xi Jing Ping think they might have.

There is an “outside chance” that President Trumps recent executive order relaxing some provisions of the Lindsey Graham Act is really a “Sweetener” to entice Putin to participate.

Time will tell, but past history seems to show that President Trump has less influence with both Putin and Xi Jing Ping than he imagines that he has.

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Monday, October 19, 2026 - 11:47 am: Edit

Ted Fay:

These things happen in threes.

The worst that could happen is that Paul just triggered another set of three new calamities.

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Monday, October 19, 2026 - 12:38 pm: Edit

I think we have a rare moment here where Steve, Carl, Ted, Paul, Jeff, Mike and I are all on the same page. This may be a "breaking of the seventh seal" moment.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, October 19, 2026 - 02:28 pm: Edit

Surface Forces : New Swedish Lulea Class Frigates
October 19, 2026: Sweden is spending over five billion dollars to have a French defense contractor build four 4,500-ton Lulea-class frigates. The first won’t be delivered until 2030, and the second in 2035.
This comes in the wake of Sweden’s 2024 decision to join NATO because of the war in Ukraine. With these four new frigates, the Royal Swedish Navy’s normal role of defending coastal waters will escalate to operations in the Baltic, North Sea, and Norwegian Sea. The four ships will be named Luleå, Norrköping, Trelleborg, and Halmstad
The Luleå class is based on the French FDI (Frégate de Défense et d’Intervention) design. These ships are 122   meters long, with two diesel engines and four more powerful gas turbine engines, providing a max speed of 48 kilometers an hour and a range of 9,000 kilometers at a cruising speed of 27 kilometers an hour. The crew of 225, plus up to 28 specialists, commandos or whatever, operates the usual air, surface, and subsurface sensors, along with fire-control systems.
Weapons include up to three 8-cell VLS cells with anti-aircraft missiles with a range of 150 kilometers, and 24 CAMM ER anti-aircraft missiles with a range of 45 kilometers. It also has two four-cell Gungnir anti-ship missile launchers and three anti-submarine torpedoes. It has one 57mm and one 40mm gun, operated remotely from inside the ship, and the usual electronic countermeasures and anti-missile decoys.
A decade ago, because of a military budget cutback and a sharp reduction in the number of young men conscripted each year, the Swedish military had to take extraordinary measures to get enough men to volunteer and provide adequate defense against the growing Russian threat. This came to light recently when an army recruiting team drove a CV90 armored vehicle into a supermarket parking lot on the island of Gotland to recruit enough locals to staff a new defense force for Gotland. The island once had a military garrison, but Sweden eliminated it in the 1990s as it dismantled its substantial Cold War-era defense forces.
Gotland is Sweden's largest Baltic Sea island (3,200 square kilometers). It had long been a key military target for any invaders, be they from Nazi Germany or the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union is gone, but Russia is once again a threat, and parliament authorized a Gotland defense force consisting of a 168-man infantry company and a 70-man tank company. The infantry would be full-time soldiers, while the tank company would be manned by reservists (part-time soldiers). This small garrison is meant to make it impossible for the Russians to take control of Gotland quickly and without loss. The island has a population of 57,000, and during World War II and the Cold War, that meant over 4,000 local reservists were armed and organized to deal with any attack. Times have changed, and now the army must do some energetic recruiting to get less than 250 local men to volunteer.
The Swedish CV90 Infantry Fighting Vehicle (IFV) was an impressive prop. This 22-ton tracked vehicle has a three-person crew and room for eight passengers (usually infantrymen). The vehicle's turret carries a 40mm autocannon, a coaxial 7.62mm machine gun, and a thermal imager for night operations.
Sweden needed the CV90 in Gotland because, by 2015, Swedish politicians agreed with their generals and admirals that over two decades of military reductions had left the country unable to respond effectively to any aggressive Russian moves. This even though the Russian armed forces have been reduced 80 percent since 1991. That was still a million troops, while by 2016 Sweden had only 38,000 troops available. This includes 5,600 full-time workers, 10,500 reservists, and 22,000 Home Guard. Most troops, namely the Home Guard, are another form of reserve, but instead of reinforcing full-time troops in wartime, the Home Guard is organized into 70 infantry battalions (each with 2-5 companies) assigned to the areas where their part-time soldiers work and live. Created in 1940, the Home Guard relies on volunteers who are either former full-time personnel or reservists with at least three months of basic training, and who attend two four-day training exercises a year to practice mobilization and perform their wartime duties. In addition, most Home Guard companies (about 70 troops each) hold weekend training sessions ten times a year. The Home Guard take their training and readiness very seriously, especially when an obvious threat looms. In 1940 it was the Germans, but after 1945 it was the Russians, at least until 1991. Now the Russians are once more a threat.
After 2010, Sweden phased out mandatory conscription. But now opinion polls show that over 70 percent of Swedes want conscription revived. Because of this shift in public opinion, the government is looking into how to do that. It won’t be the old type of conscription that took nearly all men who were physically, mentally, and psychologically able, but a form of conscription that, while seen as fair, does not take everyone. In particular, the new type of conscription aims to recruit the specialists the military needs but currently lacks. That means men who are experts in various types of electronics and software, as well as medical and other unique skills the armed forces need.
FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, October 19, 2026 - 02:30 pm: Edit

Peace Time: Another Higher Japanese Defense Budget
October 18, 2026: Japan has recently increased its annual defense spending by 26 percent. Japan now spends $56 billion a year, the largest defense budget ever. This is also the sixth year Japan has increased defense spending, and it aims to reach 2 percent of GDP. The 2026 budget is $58 billion, the fourteenth consecutive year of increases. Key items in the new budget were improved surface-to-ship missiles and a scramjet-powered hypersonic missile. Nearly two billion dollars is for drones that operate in the air, on the ocean, and submerged. The Japan Air Self Defense Force is now the Japan Air and Space Self Defense Force a year early. Japan plans to increase naval and air activity in the Western Pacific, especially near China and North Korea.
South Korea spent $45 billion on defense, which is 2.8 percent of GDP. China, the major threat to everyone in East Asia and the Western Pacific, officially spends somewhere between two and three percent but almost certainly up to fifty percent more. North Korea spends about a quarter of GDP on the military, but its GDP is only about five percent of South Korea’s.
Japan’s and South Korea’s combined defense budget exceeds $100 billion, and both rank among the world's top ten defense spenders. These are the United States, China, Russia, India, Germany, Britain, France, Japan, Saudi Arabia, and South Korea. Militarily, South Korea is a superpower compared to North Korea. This is obvious when you consider annual defense spending. While the United States accounts for about 40 percent of worldwide defense spending, China and Russia together only account for about 17 percent. The rest of the top ten are either American allies or friendly. Ukraine ranks in the top five in total defense spending, including donations from NATO countries, when it comes to defense acquisitions. This is a dubious distinction for Ukraine, which is using it all to repel a Russian invasion. South Korea has profited from this because NATO member Poland, which borders Ukraine and Russia, has increased defense spending and purchased nearly $15 billion worth of South Korean weapons and munitions.
South Korea produces far more weapons and military equipment than the North, and its weapons and munitions are top-grade. One side effect is that once Poland receives all the South Korean tanks, mobile artillery, and guided and rocket launchers, it will have the most powerful army in NATO Europe. This is to discourage any Russian attacks on Poland or any other NATO nation in the area.
In the 1930s, Japan attacked a disorganized and divided China but could only capture and hold portions of it. At the end of World War II most of the Japanese army was still in China, kept busy occupying and policing portions of China they had taken control of. Most of these troops were captured by Russian forces at the end of the war, and most of the rest voluntarily moved to ports to be repatriated to Japan, although American troops occupied southern Korea and added those Japanese garrison troops to their relatively small number of Japanese prisoners of war. Most Japanese troops the Americans encountered in the Pacific died making suicidal counterattacks against the heavily armed and resolute American forces. Few Japanese soldiers surrendered because they saw it as disgraceful.
Both China and Japan reformed their armed forces after World War II. Japan adopted a new constitution that prohibited armed forces capable of offensive operations. China demobilized most of its huge army and sought to modernize the remaining soldiers. This modernization is still underway because the effort took many wrong turns. Some problems stemmed from corruption, which increased as the Chinese economy grew rapidly in the 1980s and produced enough government income to spend more on, or steal from, the military. Every Chinese leader since has tried, to some extent, to deal with them, and current leader Xi Jinping is trying more than most. So far, he has encountered more problems than he can effectively handle. Xi is not giving up and is moving forward to do what has rarely been done in peacetime China.
FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, October 19, 2026 - 02:30 pm: Edit

Surface Forces : USN AutoHook Naval Drone Device
October 18, 2026: AutoHook is a remarkable, ingenious automated connector that enables quick, efficient launch and recovery of naval surface and subsurface drones. In naval operations. These systems ensure naval drone operations are carried out safely and efficiently. Features include automated visual tracking via high-definition video sensors and automated movement of recovered drones for quick, safe recovery.
AutoHook can operate in Sea State 4 conditions, where recovering drones using sailors is risky and unreliable. It is designed to be quickly installed on existing crane systems without major vessel modifications. networks without needing a full overhaul of the mothership's launching infrastructure.
Ukraine developed naval drones, especially the Magura naval surface drone. About a hundred of these drones defeated the Black Sea fleet. When the war started, the Magura V5 was just a concept, a preliminary design for a one-ton, 5.5-meter-long naval drone. Magura initially used a fishing boat with a solid waterproof cover, plus batteries for propulsion. There were sensors and a compartment for 300 kg of explosives or weapons. These include a machine gun protruding above the drone top, while two Sidewinder anti-aircraft missiles were in launch tubes, ready to be fired at Russian aircraft or helicopters. Magura has many electronic components, including several day/night video cameras that give the remote operator a view of the area around the drone. It also has an autopilot, so the remote operator does not have to personally maneuver the drone over long stretches of open water. Magura is equipped with contact fuses at the front of the boat
Most Magura missions are one-way, but those equipped with machine-guns and surface-to-air missiles are also used to attack Russian aircraft. Three months ago, a Magura V7 used those two missiles to shoot down two Russian SU-30 jet fighters. This was the first time a naval drone had shot down warplanes. Earlier, a Magura had used Ukrainian R-73 heat-seeking missiles to take down one Mi-8 helicopter and damage another.
In 2025, Ukraine introduced the Magura V7, which weighs about 1.2 tons and can carry 650 kg of weapons. Its operational range is a thousand kilometers. The V7 can also be equipped with an electricity generator, enabling it to stay at sea for up to seven days. This model can move at speeds of up to 72 kilometers per hour. Cruising speed is 43 kilometers per hour.
The Ukrainian experience using naval drones to defeat the Russian Black Sea Fleet was unique. Ukraine had only surface-to-ship missiles when the war started but eventually shifted to three new naval drones: Sea Baby, Mother, and MAGURA (Maritime Autonomous Guard Unmanned Robotic Apparatus).
Some of these naval drones were used for a mid-2023 Kerch Bridge attack. One of the drones carried 850 kg of explosives and inflicted enough damage to halt use of the bridge. The Mother drone carried 450 kg, and the MAGURA carried 320 kg. Beyond attacking targets, these drones can also conduct reconnaissance and surveillance, using video cameras that broadcast what they see back to the operator. Some drones carry small rocket launchers. The Mother drone has a range of over 700 kilometers and can operate on the high seas. It has an endurance of about 60 hours and a top speed of over 70 kilometers an hour. Mother was used for an attack on the Russian naval base at Novorossiysk, which is a thousand kilometers from Crimea.
Ukraine has been developing subsurface drones, and in early 2023 it introduced the first, the Toloka2 TK-150. This drone was 2.5 meters long and had a sensor mast that stayed above the surface for navigation and target identification. Toloka2 can also carry a small explosive warhead. Later, Ukraine developed the larger Marichka drone, six meters long and one meter in diameter. Ukraine plans for a Western manufacturer to build and weaponize Ukrainian drones.
Ukrainian drones have been quite successful in attacking and sinking or disabling Russian navy ships. So far, over a dozen attacks have sunk or damaged about twenty ships.
Ukrainian drone operations in the Black Sea forced the Russian Black Sea Fleet to withdraw to the eastern shore of the Black Sea. Sevastopol was no longer a safe place to be, and Russian ships could no longer launch their Kalibr cruise missiles without risking attack by Ukrainian drones. The presence and aggressive use of the drones meant that Ukraine’s grain corridor was kept open despite Russia’s threats to interfere. Beyond its symbolic significance, the corridor is economically critical for Ukraine and is expected to contribute up to 7 percent to GDP growth in 2024 through grain shipments.
Russian countermeasures to Ukrainian naval drones included using aircraft and helicopters to destroy slow-moving drones before they attack and expanding use of jamming to disrupt drone control signals. These changes made it much more difficult for Ukrainian naval drones to reach and destroy targets. But by 2025 the Russians had already lost control of the Black Sea and were not getting it back.
This left Russian warships dependent on bases in the north, near the land border with Norway, and in the Far East, near Japanese and South Korean naval bases. In a post-Cold War development, the Japanese and South Korean fleets are now far larger than the Russian Far East fleet. Before the 1990s, the South Korean fleet was largely non-existent and the Japanese fleet tiny and purely defensive. Chinese naval power began to emerge by the late 1990s but took another decade to become a significant force. As then as now, the American Western Pacific fleet dominated the region.
The lessons learned by American, Chinese, Taiwanese, Ukrainian, and Russian naval commanders are that these drones have changed the rules for naval warfare. If China tries to invade Taiwan, it must prepare countermeasures for numerous naval drones blocking the way. Everyone continues to watch Black Sea operations for details on new tactics, techniques, and drone designs. The U.S. has an edge because they are a major supporter of Ukraine and is seeking to make the most of its insider knowledge of the Ukrainian naval drone effort.
FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, October 19, 2026 - 02:31 pm: Edit

Logistics: First USN Expeditionary Sea Base Ship
October 17, 2026: Wars in the Middle East and the smuggling that arms them are in trouble. Various Navy ships disrupt them, including USNS (U.S. Naval Ship) vessels. A decade ago, the U.S. Navy received the USNS Lewis B. Puller, which is the first of two T-ESB ships. The “ESB” stands for Expeditionary Mobile Base. This design was previously known as MLP (Mobile Landing Platform) or AFSB (Afloat Forward Staging Base). T-ESB is a 78,000-ton ship, essentially a modified oil tanker. The flight deck can handle heavy (33-ton) CH-53 transport helicopters and MV-22 tiltrotor aircraft. A structure on the hangar deck supports mine-clearing gear used by the helicopters (such as four mine-clearing sleds towed by the helicopters). The hangar deck carries boats and unmanned surface and underwater vehicles weighing up to 11 tons (the maximum that the cranes can handle). There are accommodations for an additional 298 personnel (commandos, marines, specialists of any sort). Plans include adding a gym and other troop facilities. The flight deck can also operate many types of drones. It has plenty of cargo space for supplies and fuel. The ship is highly automated and only needs a crew of 34.
In early 2013, the U.S. Navy received the first (USNS Montford Point) of three T-ESD (Expeditionary Transfer Dock, formerly T-MLP) ships. Montford Point successfully completed its sea trials and entered service in early 2014. The Navy completed another T-ESD in 2013. Instead of building more of this design, the Navy switched to a different (but similar) design: T-ESB. Originally, the Navy sought to use the T-ESD design as floating bases to support commando-type operations ashore. The T-ESDs are 34,500-ton vessels that serve as seagoing piers when no friendly port is handy. Each is 239 meters (785 feet) long and has up to 2,322 square meters (25,000 square feet) of space to store vehicles and aircraft. The second two T-ESDs were to be equipped as an AFSB (Afloat Forward Staging Base), with added command-and-control equipment (electronics and communications gear) and a distinct flight deck area.
The T-ESD looks like a container ship, with the main deck lowered to about dock height. On the side of the T-ESD are mooring fenders (so cargo ships can, literally, tie up like at a dock). The T-ESD also has ramps for loading and unloading cargo from ships or a dock. Cargo would be transferred to landing craft or LCACs (air-cushion high-speed landing craft that can carry 60 tons of cargo). The T-ESD can also partially submerge itself so that its main deck is underwater. Landing craft can then move over the deck, and the T-ESD can bring its deck back out of the water so the landing craft can be loaded. T-ESDs are to carry three LCACs. AFSBs can also carry helicopters and MV-22 tiltrotor aircraft. The Navy plans to increase the fire resistance of part of the deck so AFSBs can also handle the F-35's vertical-takeoff variant.
The T-ESD and T-ESB are built to commercial (not military) ship standards and use civilian crews (as with all USNS ships). They can be equipped with defensive (anti-missile) systems.
Work on these concepts began earlier. In 2012, the American LPD USS Ponce (an amphibious ship with a dock in the rear for small boats) was rapidly modified (in five months) to serve as a support ship (mainly for mine clearing, but also for disaster relief or supporting commando operations). Normally, these LPDs carry a reinforced battalion of Marines, plus six CH-46 helicopters and 39 landing craft (24 of them AAV infantry fighting vehicles). The Ponce is a 17,000-ton ship with a crew of 420, plus space for 900 Marines, vehicles, or cargo. The shipyard conversion converted many berthing spaces into work areas (for headquarters or training). Since the converted ship needs half as many crew members, the crew quarters were remodeled to be roomier and more comfortable. The modified Ponce was equipped to support smaller mine-clearing ships and helicopters, and to serve as a floating base for MH-53 mine-clearing helicopters. It also carried more communications gear and special equipment, such as drones and naval drones (unmanned submarines the size of torpedoes used to find mines). The Navy redesignated it from LPD-15 to AFSB-15.
This wasn't a new concept; in 2006, the Navy sent an Austin-class amphibious ship to the Indian Ocean without the usual complement of Marines. Instead, the ship served as a floating base for drones and SOF (special operations forces). In 2002, the Navy assigned a similar task to a carrier to support SOF operations in Afghanistan. In 2006, the amphibious ship was believed to have also supported SOF operations ashore in Somalia or Iran. The Austins are normally armed with two 25mm autocannons, two 20mm Phalanx for anti-missile work, and eight 12.7mm machine-guns.
FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, October 19, 2026 - 02:31 pm: Edit

Turkey: Turkish Istif Class Frigates
October 17, 2026: The 3,100-ton Turkish Istif Class (Istanbul Class) frigates are multi-role ships designed for seagoing operations, with most components manufactured in Turkey. The Turkish Navy built eight Istif-class frigates, and Indonesia ordered two more. Each ship costs $500 million.
Each ship is 113.2 meters long and powered by one GE LM2500 gas turbine, two MTU diesel engines, and accessory equipment. It has a top speed of 52 kilometers per hour and a range of 10,000 kilometers at a cruising speed of 25 kilometers per hour. A crew of about 124 operates air- and surface-fire-control radars and sonar to detect submersibles. In the rear, a hangar houses a ten-ton-class helicopter and some aerial drones.
Armament includes one 76   mm/62 caliber cannon and a 35 mm dual-barrel autocannon for CIWS (Close-In Weapons System) defense against anti-ship missiles, glide bombs, and attack drones. It also has a dual-barrel 25 mm autocannon for surface threats. It has 16 VLS cells carrying Turkish anti-aircraft missiles. It has two triple-cell launchers for anti-submarine torpedoes.
These ships and their weapons and components made in Turkey are another product of the Turkish arms industry. New systems include the Tufan naval surface attack drone. The Anka 3 fixed-wing reconnaissance and surveillance drone is now in service. The Pamir 4x4 light tactical armored vehicle is used for reconnaissance, rapid response, and Special Operations Forces. The Palem is a ground-transport drone. It can carry troops and cargo and, like similar vehicles in Ukraine, be armed with various weapons. Turkey is also developing hypersonic missiles, as are most other major military powers. These are used frequently by the Russians to hit Ukrainian economic targets and populated areas. Turkey is also developing Kizilelma, a drone jet fighter. Turkey finally brought its Altay tank into service to compete with the American M-1 and the German Leopard 2. Turkey also introduced Kaplan, a tracked autonomous combat vehicle that can carry a variety of weapons, including upcoming laser systems to counter drones.
Then there is the Turkish Navy’s future aircraft carrier project. The government previously announced the carrier project is fully indigenous, with Turkish design, engineering, and domestic construction. The ship will be 285 meters long and displace around 60,000 tons. The Navy currently plans to fly a mix of 50 manned and 50 drone aircraft from the ship. The manned aircraft could be a navalized version of the Turkish-made Hurjet light attack aircraft, but only if the carrier adds a catapult. The Navy originally wanted to acquire F-35B/STOVL jump jets, but America kicked Turkey out of the entire F-35 program after Turkey acquired Russian S-400 surface-to-air missiles.
On the 22nd, Erdogan announced that Iraq had agreed to cooperate with Turkey to fight PKK Kurdish rebels. Erdogan visited Iraq and met with the Iraqi leader. Both men discussed security issues, including the PKK, and agreed to take joint steps to improve border security. This was another way of saying Iraq would try to keep the PKK out of Iraq. They also discussed several bilateral economic issues, including a new economic trade corridor called the Development Road. The corridor would connect Arab and Persian Gulf countries to Turkey via Iraq. Erdogan and Sudani also discussed water issues. Iraqis worry that Turkey’s dams on the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers will restrict the amount of water Iraq receives, which violates their downstream water rights. In the 1980s, Turkey began building a series of large power dams on the rivers' headwaters. The dams were part of the Southeastern Anatolia Project. Sudani said that Turkey and Iraq had reached a ten-year agreement on managing water resources that recognized Iraq’s needs. Turkey and Iraq signed 20 memorandums of understanding. Erdogan’s trip to Baghdad was the first visit by a senior Turkish official to Iraq since 2011.
Turkey’s Scientific and Technological Research Council announced it had begun low-rate production of two domestically developed air-to-air missiles, the Gokdogan and the Bozdogan. Initially, it will produce 25 of each. Turkish F-16s will carry the missiles.
The Turkish Ada-class corvette TCG Kinaliada is en route to a five-month-long deployment in East Asia. The ship left Turkey on April 8 and is en route to Japan to mark the 100th anniversary of Turkish-Japanese diplomatic relations. The vessel will visit several other East Asian countries.
Diplomatic relations between Turkey and Israel continue to deteriorate. Since early April, both nations have imposed trade barriers. Turkey said it is restricting exports of 54 product types to Israel, including steel, aluminum, aviation fuel, and chemical fertilizers. On April 8, Israel told Turkey that Turkish military transport planes could not participate in a humanitarian air drop over Gaza.
Turkey has also joined its NATO allies and suspended its participation in the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe. The agreement limited conventional military equipment in Europe. It was meant as a post-Cold War confidence-building measure. Russia withdrew from the agreement in 2023.
The government’s High Electoral Board restored Abdullah Zeydan's right to become mayor of Van in eastern Turkey. Zeydan belongs to the pro-Kurd DEM Party. He won the election on March 31st, but on April 2nd a regional election board refused to recognize his victory and replaced him with the man he had defeated, who was a member of Erdogan’s AKP Party. A national outcry erupted. The High Electoral Board overruled the regional electoral board’s decision. Zeydan won 55 percent of the vote, the AKP candidate 27 percent.
Turkish media describe President Erdogan as stunned by the March 31 municipal election results. The CHP retained control of both Istanbul and Ankara. The pro-Kurd DEM won several municipalities in southeastern Turkey.
Last month, Turkish security personnel announced the arrest of two suspected Israeli spies. Police and intelligence authorities detained six others as part of the operation.
FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, October 19, 2026 - 02:31 pm: Edit

Intelligence: Chinese Commercial Shipping Espionage
October 16, 2026: American intelligence has found that some Chinese shipping has been using concealed equipment to monitor civil and military communications off American coasts and those of American allies in Europe and East Asia. This is possible because COSCO (China Ocean Shipping Company) has allowed Chinese intelligence agencies to discreetly install electronic monitoring equipment on its ships since the 1990s. Officers and crew were not told whether their ships carried such equipment and were ordered not to discuss it with anyone. This equipment monitors and captures information of interest. When the ship reaches a Chinese port, it transfers that information to an intelligence facility, where analysts can examine it, isolate useful data, and forward it to the appropriate Chinese military or civil agency.
The intelligence collection program is effective because Chinese shipyards construct nearly 70 percent of the Container, or box, ship market. These vessels are the largest cargo ships to ever go to sea. The largest container ships weigh up to 250,000 tons and are 400 meters long. That’s 15 percent longer and more than twice as heavy as the largest aircraft carriers, like the U.S. Nimitz class.
Container ships can carry over 24,000 TEU (Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units), or 6.1-meter metal containers. These ships have crews of fewer than fifty officers and sailors. The Nimitz has a ship’s complement of about 5,000 personnel.
COSCO, the builder and owner of most of these containerships, operates a fleet of nearly 400 24,000 TEU container ships. The Chinese government owns COSCO, and it can use its ships for military purposes. In wartime, that means COSCO ship officers have been trained to operate their ships in support of combat operations.
COSCO is a $28 billion-a-year business that also owns ship repair facilities and port operations worldwide. Meanwhile, South Korea is returning to building these 24,000 TEU ships, with orders for 24. In response, China plans to build 32,000 TEU ships.
China has other shipping interests that are only tangentially related to moving goods around the world. Chinese companies have taken on management of more foreign ports. This port management business is an important capability for many nations that lack the cash and experience to make their port operations more efficient. China is not alone in this business. Persian Gulf states, especially the UAE, have long managed port operations for many Asian and African nations. UAE companies are reliable, well-funded, and can quickly upgrade ports where they are welcome.
Chinese efforts have become less popular because Chinese-managed ports, especially in Central and South America, are increasingly used by Chinese government-influenced firms to set up espionage operations disguised as part of the port infrastructure.
Not only are Chinese-managed ports being subverted for intelligence and corporate espionage, but most of the shipping using these ports is built in China by COSCO, a $255 billion-a-year business owned by the Chinese government, that operates dozens of tankers and container transports, as well as ship repair facilities and port operations around the world. It was always understood that COSCO would provide cover for Chinese spy operations, and any special operations the Chinese Navy needed help with.
China is often the major importer and exporter in ports it controls. That makes it easier for Chinese raw material exports to move without paying all the taxes due. The same game plays out with tariffs on imported goods. Chinese port officials can doctor the paperwork and bribe locals as needed to get their goods into a country as cheaply as possible.
Over the last few years, it was found that COSCO was more into espionage than previously thought. As American counter-terrorism activities increased in out-of-the-way places, they often found that not only was COSCO already there, but so were plenty of Chinese intelligence personnel, operating under the cover of COSCO employees. It was a near-perfect fit. Port operations are at the center of much of what goes into and comes out of a country. In many poor countries, the local officials who oversee foreign operators like COSCO can be bribed to look the other way when special cargo goes in or out. COSCO also moves sensitive people and material for the Chinese military or anyone else who can afford it.
It's never been a secret that COSCO works closely with Chinese military and intelligence agencies, but the degree of cooperation has been increasing. COSCO has also been caught smuggling illegal cargo like weapons, hazardous waste, and anything else someone can afford to have moved. In most non-United States or European ports, Chinese-run ports can do whatever they want without fear of competition from nosy, generally incorruptible American or European port inspectors.
The Chinese-controlled ports provide a worldwide network of ports China can use to disrupt port operations in wartime. Even the United States could not quickly deal with the Chinese-controlled ports. Replacing personnel with trained locals or foreigners would take weeks, if you were lucky, but more likely months. Meanwhile, Chinese port management firms could sabotage port operations as a last act before locals replaced them. The new port officials would require training, much of it on the job, as local training teams struggled to get ports functioning effectively.
FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, October 19, 2026 - 02:32 pm: Edit

Somalia: Turkey in Somalia
October 16, 2026: Currently, Turkish forces are attacking Al Shabaab Islamic terrorists again operating near large Somali urban areas. To support this effort, Turkey moved three of its F-16 aircraft to Somalia in January.
The Somali military earlier received several M48 and M60 tanks. The military took possession of the tanks at dockside. Earlier, an American drone attack killed two senior Al Shabaab technical experts. Abdullahi Osman Mohamed/Engineer Ismail, and Abdikarim Mohamed Hersi/Qoorleex. Ismail oversaw the acquisition of explosives and bomb design. Qoorleex handled propaganda operations in Somalia.
Somalia hasn’t changed much during the last few years. In 2025, the UN continued to maintain a peacekeeping force in Somalia. U.S. drones and warplanes continue to attack Islamic terrorist operations in various areas of Somalia. Islamic terrorist group Al Shabaab continues to be active. Piracy has returned to waters off the Somali coast. Al Shabaab and militia violence continues against government officials.
Governments don’t function well in Somalia, but criminal organizations are another matter. The largest criminal organization in Somalia is al Shabaab. Given Somalia's history, that shouldn't surprise anyone. Britain and Italy administered Somalia from 1884 to 1960 and, after much effort, imposed more peace, prosperity, and unity than the region had ever known. That lasted until about two decades after independence, and then the usual bad habits began tearing Somalia apart again. The tribal/clan rivalries kept the pot boiling, and even the rise of a clean government party backfired and turned into another warlord group called al-Shabaab. That caused even more Somalis to flee their homeland and led to even more problems as Somali refugees throughout Africa and worldwide misbehaved in the nations that took them in. While doing that, Somalis acquired a reputation for organized violence and criminal behavior as well as entrepreneurial success. This led to a current decision by the United States to deport Somali refugees who were caught defrauding social service agencies of nearly $10 billion.
Despite relative peace and prosperity, Somalia had not made that more permanent by holding national elections by 2025. Instead, most Somali factions agreed to rely on a system in which clan elders met and worked out agreements. Somalia has long been a failed state, and, after over a decade of peacekeeping, massive foreign aid, and visible progress, corruption and tribalism continue to block economic progress.
Al Shabaab, a local Islamic radical group, was defeated and driven from cities and towns in 2011 but is still around. So are traditional clan violence, organized crime, and banditry. All these are ancient Somali traditions, and al-Shabaab survives by reverting to that and becoming a major criminal organization in some parts of the country. Extortion, smuggling, ransoms, and so on have sustained the Islamic terror group. One of the most lucrative sources of plunder is the elected Somali government, propped up by foreign aid, most of which gets stolen. Despite all that, Somalia is still a failed state that defies every attempt at nation-building. The situation is worse than it appears because Somalia was never a country, but a collection of clans and tribes that fight each other constantly over economic, land, and water issues.
The country remains an economic and political mess, a black hole on the map. Not much hope in sight. Local leaders have little enthusiasm for a national government, but they welcome foreign aid because they can take it without risking another clan feud. Piracy has returned and so has political violence. Somalia smolders as it always has, and little has changed, though some aspects have worsened.
Meanwhile, al Shabaab still has strong popular support. Most Somalis oppose Islamic terrorism, but up to 20 percent support or tolerate groups like al Shabaab. The main reason for the support is desperation for a solution to the poverty, corruption, factionalism, and chaos that make Somalia such a dangerous place to live in. Overcoming those ancient traditions is the main obstacle to peace, and there is no quick solution. Al Shabaab survives because its leaders concentrate on finances and pay its bills.
The piracy problem stems from chaos in Somalia on the Red Sea coast and in Yemen on the western coast. In Somalia, Al Shabaab Islamic terrorists and smugglers turned pirates have been attacking shipping there for over a decade. Worldwide, attacks on cargo ships and occasional tankers remain a problem. Many ships have been boarded and crews robbed. There are also attempts to kidnap crew members and hold them for ransom.
Hostages are used to seize control of the ship and move it elsewhere. Pirates rarely have any knowledge or experience operating these ships. Kidnapped crews are taken ashore and held until a ransom is paid. In December 2023, a large cargo ship was hijacked and taken to Somalia. This was the first hijacking since 2017.
As recently as 2018, piracy was still a problem off the Somali coast, just not the kind that creates headlines in the international mass media. The pirates adapted, and in 2017 there were nine pirate attacks off the Somali coast, up from two in 2016. This was notable because worldwide pirate activity hit a 22-year low, with 188 attacks in 2017, mostly far from Somalia, in places like the west coast of Africa and Southeast Asia. Those 188 attacks caused $7 billion in damage, with ships and their owners absorbing 80 percent. Higher insurance rates and operating costs were the biggest added expenses. That is an issue off Somalia, where higher insurance costs remain a problem and are worsening because warships have been ineffective at defending against them.
Back in 2011, there were 327 attacks off the Somali coast. The solution was an international anti-piracy effort that continues. But shipping companies still must pay higher insurance rates for ships operating in the danger zone, which extends far into the Indian Ocean. By the end of 2017, maritime insurance companies had real reason to worry. In November 2017, for the first time since 2014, the international anti-piracy patrol arrested six Somali pirates who were caught firing on and trying to board ships off the Somali coast.
Peacekeepers and Western special operations forces are now returning. Since East African nations suffer from the disrupted trade, they are sending more of their soldiers to help reduce the mayhem and attacks on shipping emanating from Somalia
Major suppliers of foreign aid restored suspended aid programs. The United States ordered several hundred special operations and other troops to return to Somalia. American Special Forces and SEAL operators were again training and advising their Somali counterparts. American troops in Somalia also collected intelligence and monitored the situation.
This continued from a major American special operations base in neighboring Djibouti as well as the use of American drones, also based in Djibouti, to search for Islamic terrorists and carry out airstrikes when the opportunity presented itself. After a year or so of indecision by the Americans, the U.S. resumed regular air strikes against al-Shabaab and other groups interfering with aid shipments or the new Somali government. This led to several hundred drone airstrikes that killed thousands of al-Shabaab and other Islamic terrorist group members.
FYEO

By Ted Fay (Catwhoeatsphoto) on Monday, October 19, 2026 - 03:22 pm: Edit

---

Quote:

I think we have a rare moment here where Steve, Carl, Ted, Paul, Jeff, Mike and I are all on the same page. This may be a "breaking of the seventh seal" moment.

---

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, October 19, 2026 - 04:37 pm: Edit

Zelensky is winning. He's not going to agree to any territorial concessions at this point, only to a full Russian withdrawal.

Putin will call up 500,000 draftees for a final spring offensive, but that is more likely to result in his fall from an open window than a victory.

By Ted Fay (Catwhoeatsphoto) on Monday, October 19, 2026 - 05:26 pm: Edit

I might also point out that drones so far are not dispositive in the war. Terrifying? Yes. Destructive? Yes. But, manifestly, they are not ending the warfighting capacity of either country.

Call me if I'm wrong here - but drones are more creating a weird WWI analogue. Despite hyper mobility of drones and the ability (potentially) to move other equipment and personnel very rapidly, drones are seriously degrading the ability of either side to move large numbers of troops and vehicles to really occupy territory - because drones blow them up. The result is almost a "trench warfare" like effect. You're not in literal long opposed trenches, like in WWI, but you are substantially impeded in terms of making real forward progress in occupying territory.

Thoughts?

By Gregory S Flusche (Vandar) on Monday, October 19, 2026 - 06:52 pm: Edit

I would think drones are more like airplanes in WW+1
New and both sides are trying to find the best uses for them.

By Randy Green (Hollywood750) on Tuesday, October 20, 2026 - 10:20 am: Edit

Yes, Ted. I agree. It is extremely hard for either side to mass any forces sufficient to gain territory anywhere near the front, creating your trench warfare effect.

Greg, I also agree with you point. Combatants are still trying to ascertain the best uses for them. Creativity matters here, but only to a point. The Russians have been quick to copy anything the Ukrainians have innovated in regards to drone warfare. One side copies whatever works as soon as possible. Which is kind of the way it has always been in warfare.

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Tuesday, October 20, 2026 - 11:54 am: Edit

Pres. Trump made remarks to reporters yesterday on the South Lawn, when he was asked about a possible trilateral meeting between him, Russian president Vladimir Putin and Chinese president Xi Jinping regarding the disposition of Ukraine.

He said: "I would do it, not so much for Ukraine because Russia, frankly, has been fine on Ukraine. They haven't been doing much. And the same thing with China."

The mildest possible thing I can say is that it appears that the President has abandoned our allies in favor of our enemies. Steve, I leave stronger commentary to you.