3rd FCOL Tournament:Information, Announcements and Deadlines

[The_Rock]

1. Your description of your photon status cannot be right. If you pre-load you have standard photons. You cannot then overload them until you either fire or until the end of turn is reached.

Can't check at the moment, but I think that you can put the overload energy in at the start of the second arming turn. So if you pre-arm, you are on the second turn and can overload during EA.

There is little point that I can think of to doing that (save the energy and dump it at the end of the turn if you still have it), but I seem to remember that you can do it never the less.

Huh. You are right. During the first turn (pre-load) you can add overload energy only at end of turn. For whatever reason, this changes and you can overload them during EA, though there is no reason to ever do so, on the "Final Loading turn." Then when holding torps, you are back to only at the moment of fire or at end of turn. Odd.

[mojo_billbo]

Mojo,
I am just making some comments here to clarify rules, not tactical choices.

1. Your description of your photon status cannot be right. If you pre-load you have standard photons. You cannot then overload them until you either fire or until the end of turn is reached.

2. Your description of his fire and your fire makes it sound like you both announced fire simultaneously and that you were surprised to find he was firing everything at your CC. In Fed Com, once he announces his fire, you are free to respond to it with additional fire of your own, so knowing he was going to gut your CC, you could choose to fire everything from that CC (and/or any of your other ships) immediately in response.

Again, if I misinterpreted what you said and these were just tactical choices, please ignore the above.

1) Jim overloaded them when he fired. Doubling Orion Engines rocks.
2) we did declare fire simultaneously. (I announced fire first, since he declared EM) I decided to hold energy to overload my photons at the end of the turn. So I only fired two phaser 1s from each ship since that would leave me energy to overload at the end... That was a horrible mistake at that point. I did not expect to not have *ANY* energy left on NCC at the end of the fire phase. I took a chance and lost.

[JimDauphinais]

I assumed Bill was quite aware he could have added his photons (and overloaded them on their fire to the extent he had the energy) after finding out I was letting everything loose on his NCC. Note that my die rolls on my four volleys were above average for the photons (5 of the 8 hit with 4 expected to hit) and slighly below average for the phaser-1s (38 damage out of an expected 41).

Bill -- If you were not aware at the time that you could have declared more fire after seeing my fire declarations, please let me know and I will gladly offer you a replacement match.

[The_Rock]

Note that my die rolls on my four volleys were above average for the photons (5 of the 8 hit with 4 expected to hit).

People routinely expect too much out of averages. The actual probability, using 5 as the threshold, is a 36% chance that 5 or more hit against a 64% chance of 4 or fewer.

The two important things to note here are:
1. With those odds, there is no reasonable decision that can be made based on 4 or fewer hitting, because it happens too infrequently (more often than not, but far to infrequently to base your tactics on) and

2. The difference between 4 hits and 5 is most likely not material.

If you have a group of 8 weapons at 50% hit probability, even hitting with 2 or less or 6 or more is not actually rare - each occurring approximately 14% of the time. Though that is certainly enough to start planning around it.

Both of you should have gone into that firing decision with the assumption that 3-5 photons would hit and planned accordingly. I will choose, in this thread (though someone is welcome to start another if they like) to abstain from making a tactical comment on the choice, but I just wanted to make clear that the analysis of that choice does not start with an assumption that 4 photons should be expected to hit. Hitting with exactly 4 photons happens 27% of the time, and this is not substantially different from hitting with 3 or 5 (each having a 21% chance).

[JimDauphinais]

Paul -- I only included the expected values in the post as a reference point for those who do not have the charts handy. You are of course correct (especially for the photons with so few dice rolled for them and the lumpiness of the damage outcomes (16/12/8 or 0)).

[pinecone]

Um, hey Krellex, could you PM me your email? I don't know which of the email adresses is yours.

[mojo_billbo]

I assumed Bill was quite aware he could have added his photons (and overloaded them on their fire to the extent he had the energy) after finding out I was letting everything loose on his NCC. Note that my die rolls on my four volleys were above average for the photons (5 of the 8 hit with 4 expected to hit) and slighly below average for the phaser-1s (38 damage out of an expected 41).

Bill -- If you were not aware at the time that you could have declared more fire after seeing my fire declarations, please let me know and I will gladly offer you a replacement match.

oh, I knew *EXACTLY* what I though I was doing... I wanted to hit you on the first offensive fire phase of turn 2... I expected to walk out of there with some damage, but enough left to fire on you at range 2-5, hopefully with a difference shield facing as you're trying to run away... I've always had bad rolls on those range 8 torps, so I wanted to get to closer than range 5, where my luck usually works out in the end... I took the risk of a massive strike for the better fire advantage. It did not go well for me.

So, in summary, I messed up and the Tokyo is lost because of it...
I'm definitely getting court marshaled for this one...

[JimDauphinais]

Anyone have any new game results to report?

Only 10 days left for this round.

[The_Rock]

Eric and I are unlikely to meet the deadline. We had some game times scheduled earlier, but things got crazy for Eric and he could not make them. He just sent me an email tonight, but unfortunately I am about to go on vacation until Wednesday then out of the country on business for a few days.

We will try and schedule when I get back, but that does not leave us much time.

[VulcanDropout]

We were scheduled for last Monday, but real life got in the way. We are scheduled for this Monday.

[pinecone]

Krellex and I are having our battle tommorow.

[VulcanDropout]

Patrick fired off at r15 on turn 1 knocking down shield 1 on one of my lancers and hitting the weapons row.

Turn 2 and maybe turn 3 I chased him. He got a nice r3 shot on the other lancer.

End of turn 3 the cw and my tarters were r1 shield 3 to shield 3. The other two ships were r2 at a hexline in the FA arc.

I emptied all but 1/4 power into his ships and beat up his NCA and to a lesser extent his CW. I realized after I allocated the big mistake I made: his CW grabbed me with a tractor and the next turn I would lose power to a tractor auction and face 4 ESG from his BCH and most likely OL disruptors.

I conceeded.

[JimDauphinais]

As of 8/23/2011:

Code: Select all

3rd FC Online Tournament

Round 2 Matchups

 Match           Player 1                                            Player 2                                          Won                       Lost

  2-1            The_Rock              (Tholian)       vs          ericphillips            (Klingon)
  2-2          Patrick Doyle            (Lyran)        vs          VulcanDropout            (Hydran)              Patrick Doyle              VulcanDropout
  2-3             Archer               (Tholian)       vs            orgyockbo              (Hydran)                 Archer                    orgyockbo
  2-4             gar1138              (Klingon)       vs            Brazouck                (Gorn)
  2-5          JimDauphinais            (Orion)        vs           Mojo_Billbo           (Federation)            JimDauphinais               Mojo_Billbo
  2-6            pinecone             (Federation)     vs             krellex              (Romulan)
  2-7       Chandler Archibald        (Federation)     vs           Jiraiya1969            (Klingon)

[ericphillips]

Hopefully Paul and I will get the game in before the end. {Paul. I am available on the 28th on.

[JimDauphinais]

As of 8/26/2011:

Code: Select all

3rd FC Online Tournament

Round 2 Matchups

 Match           Player 1                                            Player 2                                          Won                       Lost

  2-1            The_Rock              (Tholian)       vs          ericphillips            (Klingon)
  2-2          Patrick Doyle            (Lyran)        vs          VulcanDropout            (Hydran)              Patrick Doyle              VulcanDropout
  2-3             Archer               (Tholian)       vs            orgyockbo              (Hydran)                 Archer                    orgyockbo
  2-4             gar1138              (Klingon)       vs            Brazouck                (Gorn)                   Draw                       Draw
  2-5          JimDauphinais            (Orion)        vs           Mojo_Billbo           (Federation)            JimDauphinais               Mojo_Billbo
  2-6            pinecone             (Federation)     vs             krellex              (Romulan)
  2-7       Chandler Archibald        (Federation)     vs           Jiraiya1969            (Klingon)               Jiraiya1969            Chandler Archibald