I stand corrected:

A blogger on youtube posted “open source data” analysis of russian equipment losses innUkraine since 2022 to mid 2024.

Up to 15% of tank losses in 2024 have included some T-55 model tanks, less than 10% of all tanks in 2023 lost by the Russians included t-55 and t-62 tanks and no reported losses of t-62 and t-55 tanks in 2022.

Sorry for the mistake.

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Tuesday, July 16, 2024 - 07:35 am: Edit

Mike Grafton, i was typing when you posted. Thanks for double checking!

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Tuesday, July 16, 2024 - 07:43 am: Edit

In another report, the UK Ministry of Defense intelligence Reported on July 12, 2024 that Russia lost 70,000 soldiers(missing, Wounded, Killed) during active operations in Ukraine during May and June 2024.

The report called such losses “unsustainable.”

By Jason E. Schaff (Jschaff297061) on Tuesday, July 16, 2024 - 07:53 am: Edit

Anyone who thinks 70,000 is unsustainable isn't familiar with Russia's historical attitude towards military casualties.

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Tuesday, July 16, 2024 - 09:18 am: Edit

Jason, historically, I have to agree with you.

Unfortunately, today is not typical for Russia.

Russia no longer has the population it once had, birth rates have been declining for decades, mass migration since Both world wars have seen massive “brain drain” as professional and academic types have left seeking better life styles.

Further, since the start of the war with Ukraine in 2022, large numbers of military aged males have decided to leave Russia “for health reasons” ie living anywhere else has a higher life expectancy rate than remaining in Russia.

It has gotten so bad, that Russia is bringing in North Korean soldiers and hiring in middle eastern countries for new replacements.

By Mike Erickson (Mike_Erickson) on Tuesday, July 16, 2024 - 03:08 pm: Edit

I remember reading that the T55 and T62 were selected for service in Ukraine not just for reasons of losses of more modern tanks, but also since they don't have autoloaders. They are manually loaded with a 4 person crew (the extra 1 being the loader).

So these tanks are then not vulnerable to the unfired rounds in the autoloader cooking off and creating a large explosive force, blowing the turret off the top of the tank and killing all the crew.

For similar reasons, supposedly T64 and later tanks serving in Ukraine (and previously in Afghanistan many years ago) would go into combat only partially loaded with main gun ammo. This would keep rounds out of the most vulnerable part of the autoloader mechanism and reduce the chances of catastrophic turret explosion.

--Mike

By MarkSHoyle (Bolo) on Tuesday, July 16, 2024 - 03:17 pm: Edit

Every tank has the possibility of an ammo explosion if a round enters the turret....
It's just the off chance of shrapnel bouncing around and hitting the stored ammo...
The M-1 mitigates this with security doors for the stored rounds, but doesn't do away with it entirely, so it has blow out panels to vent the explosion externally...

The major auto-loader issue is the small size of the turret and occasionally "Eating" a crew member....

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Tuesday, July 16, 2024 - 03:49 pm: Edit

The autoloader isn't causing the flip-lid syndrome; the rounds stored in racks inside the turret are the issue.

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Tuesday, July 16, 2024 - 08:40 pm: Edit

Steve, I may be wildly off base here… but I believe the main issue with the T-72 and T-72a is the voracious appetite of the autoloader to “Eat a Crew member”.

Puts allie and ally to shame.

There are numerous videos posted on you tube of Russians using T-72 tanks as stationary guns , and the videos show the laborious process necessary to enter the tank, manually reload the main gun, leave the tank and trailing a cord to a safe distance for safely firing the round.

Firing generally continues until all ammunition has been fired.

The tank is then driven to a resupply point, rather than be resupplied in place.

Strange way to fight a war.

By Mike Grafton (Mike_Grafton) on Tuesday, July 16, 2024 - 10:32 pm: Edit

7000 a month is indeed unsustainable in modern Russia

1) This isn't the USSR with massive numbers of troops from the various sub republics (the 'stans for instance).

2) Birth rate in Russia is very low (wiki "demographic crisis of russia")

3) According to statista "In the fall draft of 2023, 130,000 people were conscripted."

So 260,000 drafted a year, and around 100,000 killed annually? At some point the soldiers just refuse and shoot their officers.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Tuesday, July 16, 2024 - 10:58 pm: Edit

Jeff, the "load the gunner's arm into the gun" is rare but scary. The real issue is somewhat different.

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Wednesday, July 17, 2024 - 12:40 am: Edit

Steve,
Point taken.

I guess the issue boils down to the attitude of the humans involved.

Todays Russian conscripts having been told about the autoloader issues, are naturally concerned about their own safety.

that coupled with the endless repetitive video clips showing case after case of flying T-72 turrets probably doesn’t help either.

By A David Merritt (Adm) on Wednesday, July 17, 2024 - 05:08 am: Edit

More on Russian Demographics.

For two World Wars, and the Cold War, a significant part of the "mass of bodies" Russia relied on were in Ukraine and Belarus, with one sitting out, and the other in opposition, this limits how many Russia can loose.

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Wednesday, July 17, 2024 - 06:13 am: Edit

That would explain why Putin wants Ukraine back under Russian control.

When the history of Russia under Putins leadership gets written, the sub title might well be “How not to conquer the world: A Case Study.”

By Mike Dowd (Mike_Dowd) on Wednesday, July 17, 2024 - 04:54 pm: Edit

I suppose recruiting N Korean troops to fight in Ukraine is cheap -- They will fight for food...

By A David Merritt (Adm) on Wednesday, July 17, 2024 - 06:45 pm: Edit

Ukraine also did a lot of R&D work, notice people who own the old Soviet designs, get them upgraded in Ukraine, not Russia.

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Wednesday, July 17, 2024 - 08:26 pm: Edit

This week marked another milestone in the Battle of the Black Sea as the Russian Navy reportedly withdrew its last remaining patrol ship from occupied Crimea. The news was announced by Ukrainian Navy spokesperson Dmytro Pletenchuk, who signaled the historic nature of the Russian retreat with the words: “Remember this day.”

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Wednesday, July 17, 2024 - 10:20 pm: Edit

There have been anecdotal reports of ethnic Russians leaving occupied Crimea for several months.

Pro Russian media has denied or downplayed the significance and pro Ukraine media points to the “Inevitable Defeat” of the Russian forces.

One source, not yet confirmed as far as I can tell, claims that total russian forces in occupied Crimea numbers “about 50,000”.

One reason (of many) the Ukrainian forces have been targeting bridges, rail roads, pipelines, and electric grid infrastructure is to isolate the Russian forces in a ever decreasing defensive position.

If the Ukrainian forces gain air superiority, and can interdict the Russian Supply lines, the Russian army In occupied Crimea would be in a dire situation indeed.

I know that the mainstream media is still claiming that Putin and Russia is winning the war, but as a life long civilian who never served in the military, it is getting harder for me to see much progress to the Russian war effort.

By Mike Grafton (Mike_Grafton) on Wednesday, July 17, 2024 - 10:35 pm: Edit

I have seen reports of Russia recruiting Indian, Nepalese and African recruits.

By Jeff Anderson (Jga) on Thursday, July 18, 2024 - 11:04 am: Edit

I'd have to go back through the archives to pull out the names, but last year (I think) there was the mercenary people whose leader, later killed in a suspicious plane crash, were providing a good percentage of the troops for Putin's aggression, but who appeared to have staged an attempted coup against him (over excessive losses, if I remember correctly).

Now there's talk of Russia recruiting Indian, Nepalese, African, and perhaps North Korean troops.

With all these stories, I have to ask how many, if any, can be believed.

If there is truth to any of it all, what does it say about the stability of the Russian forces?

(Then again, there's also that part of me that's comparing the status of THIS war, at three years in, with the status of the Great Patriotic War, at three years in...)

By Douglas Lampert (Dlampert) on Thursday, July 18, 2024 - 11:38 am: Edit

Jeff: It was Wagner Group, and the leader was named Prigozhin. Wagner was originally used to provide Russia with a deniable force for foriegn military intervention.

It was officially a private military company, but to all intents and purposes it was always part of the Russian defense establishment.

Dictators often like to divide their military command as part of coup proofing their regimes, so it was nominally independent of the Russian Defense Ministry.

Effectively, the only reason Putin would have had for NOT using Wagner in Ukraine would have been a desire to keep them doing their ongoing work in Africa and the Middle East. They were effectively Russian troops, and presumably pretty good ones with lots of combat experience.

North Korean or African forces would be a different level of manpower desperation.

By MarkSHoyle (Bolo) on Thursday, July 18, 2024 - 01:35 pm: Edit

Early on, report of International Group of approx 50k IIRC Fighting for Ukraine, been quiet on them the last 18 months or so... Anyone seeing hearing anything about them...
Heard last year a few being killed and several captured...

By Carl-Magnus Carlsson (Hardcore) on Thursday, July 18, 2024 - 09:34 pm: Edit

They have a page on Wikipedia called "International Legion (Ukraine)"

By Carl-Magnus Carlsson (Hardcore) on Friday, July 19, 2024 - 12:07 am: Edit

AFP reports that "The Israeli health ministry said poliovirus type 2 was detected in Gaza sewage samples tested in an Israeli laboratory. It said the World Health Organization had made similar findings."

By Mike Grafton (Mike_Grafton) on Friday, July 19, 2024 - 11:46 pm: Edit

It is a common belief among some Muslims that vaccines are part of a plot by the west to do something...