From the Institute for the Study of War

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Friday, August 09, 2024 - 08:43 pm: Edit

The gains compared to the previous day's map are not minor. In 24 hours, they took Sudzha, Snagost, and Malaya Loknya, and are seriously extending their thrust up the rail line toward Lgov, the main rail hub in the area. At this rate, they stand a good chance of cutting the E38, which is the main highway to Kursk.

By Mike Erickson (Mike_Erickson) on Friday, August 09, 2024 - 11:45 pm: Edit

That's amazing.

By Terry O'Carroll (Terryoc) on Saturday, August 10, 2024 - 01:55 am: Edit

There's a joke going around: In 1943, Kursk was a battle with T-34s fighting German tanks. In 2024, Kursk is a battle with T-34s fighting German tanks

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Saturday, August 10, 2024 - 04:17 pm: Edit

If things don’t start working better for the Russians, that is the next scenario!

I wonder if this time around, if the Russians will find enough volunteers to run up to the Ukrainian tanks to toss satchel charges on to the hull of the tanks.

My guess the heroism of the ww2 generation hasn’t survived the eighty or so years between 1944 and 2024.

By Terry O'Carroll (Terryoc) on Sunday, August 11, 2024 - 05:20 am: Edit

Quite a few of the russian WWII generation didn't survive to 1944...

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Sunday, August 11, 2024 - 10:11 am: Edit

Absolutely True.

And yet, the survivors still fought tenaciously for Stalin.

(Well, a lot of them did. The penalties for noncompliance were pretty severe….)

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Sunday, August 11, 2024 - 10:58 am: Edit

I just watched a clip from Sky News, they had a military analyst on talking about the Kursk Operations. the gist was, Ukraine has deployed three of its better armed and trained units on an operation that has successfully penetrated Russian territory, that has expanded to 35 miles deep into Russia.

The Analysts assessment included an opinion that the purpose of the attack was to force the Russians to redeploy more units of their Army from the south and east of Ukraine to reinforce the defenses in and around Kursk.

This is apparently happening now, but it will remain to be seen, if the diversion of significant troops from the south will allow Ukraine to exploit the south and east Russian occupied Ukrainian territory.

The problem that faces Ukraine, is, do they reinforce the Kursk attack? Withdraw? Or dig in?

It should be noted, that Russia has now “locked down” three Oblasts in and around Kursk, and now have over 75,000 civilian refugees that have fled their homes in search of safety.

Nasty thing to be, a Russian refugee in Russia, asking for help from Putin.

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Sunday, August 11, 2024 - 12:50 pm: Edit

The Leader of Ukraine has gone on Television, and during the Interview announced:

Russia now has the second best Army in Russia.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Sunday, August 11, 2024 - 03:14 pm: Edit

The guy has hutzpah, gotta say that.

By Carl-Magnus Carlsson (Hardcore) on Sunday, August 11, 2024 - 03:22 pm: Edit

If Putin loses too much face he will lose control of power. Zelensikyj, as former comedian and media person, knows this.
The Ukrainians got lucky in what president they have in this war.

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Sunday, August 11, 2024 - 06:15 pm: Edit

Putin has always played a dangerous game.

This time, he may not be able to get away with it.

I have dreaded the likelihood of a large death count for Ukraine.

Now, with the ugly possibility of a Russian Civil war breaking out, the Russian death count potentially could be immense.

With the current economic situation in China, chinese domestic security is an open question, as well.

It is a common saying in Minnesota that “it could always get worse.”

We are not there yet, but we are approaching the neighborhood.

By MarkSHoyle (Bolo) on Monday, August 12, 2024 - 09:05 am: Edit

It's not 1917/1918, not sure the majority of the Russian military would attack it's own citizens...
Fighting around the capital could happen, if Putin refuses to step down if things got that bad....

Not like China isn't looking for some opening in Eastern Russia....

By Jeff Anderson (Jga) on Monday, August 12, 2024 - 10:18 am: Edit

Could we see a sort of repeat of the military action when the Soviet Union collapsed and put Boris Yeltsin in power...

When was that? `92? `93? Some time around then.

And if so, is there ANYone, outside of Putin's inner circle, whom the Russian people might gravitate around if that WERE to happen...

By Mike Dowd (Mike_Dowd) on Monday, August 12, 2024 - 12:31 pm: Edit

"And if so, is there ANYone, outside of Putin's inner circle, whom the Russian people might gravitate around if that WERE to happen..."

I seriously doubt that. Putin has made •••• sure to either arrest/jail or arrange "accidents" involving windows for anyone who could be a nucleus of opposition.

Sometimes both.

By Mike Grafton (Mike_Grafton) on Monday, August 12, 2024 - 05:33 pm: Edit

Question is whether some of the more independent minded oblasts split off from Russia.

I could see Kallingrad going independent.

An independent METRO Leningrad/ St Petersburg would be a natural ally of Finland and Estonia.

Maybe the Chechens try again? Some of the far east Oblasts?

By Mike Grafton (Mike_Grafton) on Monday, August 12, 2024 - 05:38 pm: Edit

Retiring the Martin Mars Flying Boat.

https://www.twz.com/air/giant-hawaii-mars-flying-boat-made-its-final-glorious-flight

By Mike Erickson (Mike_Erickson) on Monday, August 12, 2024 - 07:26 pm: Edit

Great post, what a wonderful piece of history.

--Mike

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Tuesday, August 13, 2024 - 11:49 am: Edit

We're a week along, and Ukraine has expanded their salient into Kursk Oblast to over 400 square miles; they are now digging trenches to reinforce their hold on what they've taken, and are continuing to push on. The gap between the Snagost and Korenevo spearheads has been closed, and that between the Korenevo and Pogrebki spearheads is closing. Meanwhile, a new flanking spearhead has shot out eastward from Guyevo all the way to Belitsa.

Russia's failure to push the Ukrainian forces back in any meaningful way definitely exposes the Russian military as a paper tiger (or paper bear, if you will). This is the first incursion into Russia proper since the Second World War, and it would have been unthinkable up until recently.

By Mike Erickson (Mike_Erickson) on Tuesday, August 13, 2024 - 03:29 pm: Edit

At a minimum, the Ukrainians should have a nice chunk of real estate to bargain with at the negotiating table. Or perhaps they have their sights set higher?

--Mike

By MarkSHoyle (Bolo) on Tuesday, August 13, 2024 - 04:11 pm: Edit

Or perhaps they have their sights set higher?

Maybe get Russia to build a No Fire/Neutral Zone, like between N/S Korea....

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Wednesday, August 14, 2024 - 05:39 am: Edit

Since 7 Oct, ten thousand Gazans have applied to emigrate to Australia. Of these, 7000 were rejected as being Hamas supporters. Of the 3000 approved, 1500 have arrived. The opposition party wants all Gazans banned permanently.

By Mike Grafton (Mike_Grafton) on Wednesday, August 14, 2024 - 07:50 am: Edit

It's all about getting to maneuver warfare. Which is a BIG weak point for modern Russian forces.

Poor communications, coordination between branches, and logistics all make this a problem for Russia.

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Wednesday, August 14, 2024 - 01:18 pm: Edit

Russia is now transferring units from Kaliningrad to Kursk to try to stem the Ukrainian salient. That they're having to bring forces from over 1200 km away to deal with this speaks volumes about the current state and disposition of Russian forces.

By Steve Petrick (Petrick) on Wednesday, August 14, 2024 - 02:54 pm: Edit

That Putin has maintained control to this date speaks volumes about what he has learned from the history of Czarist Russia and its collapse and about his paranoia in controlling his police state to maintain his position.