Putin has “stepped Up” the rate at which he is publicly pruning the civilian, military and commercial leadership.

In the last 12 months, he has reduced the number of fatalities of those who have “fallen” from his favored circle.

Officially, that is.

We may never know just how many actually died, and separating battle field casualties from political hits is especially difficult.

It remains to be seen if his personal security will continue to shield him from the growing unrest in Russia.

At some point, he will have to decide how to end the war with Ukraine.

Pity the Ukrainian people didn’t read Putins script on how it was supposed to be a short and victorious war. (In Russias favor,)

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Wednesday, August 14, 2024 - 09:41 pm: Edit

CNN just posted a news story, claims that the Russian Government/Federation, is advertising for “General Laborers” to dig trenches at the equivalent of $1,600.00 to $4,000.00 USD at air fields in Russian territory that appear to be the objectives of The Ukrainian military.

Several things about this is just weird:
1. The rate of pay offered is very exorbitant and much higher than the normal amount offered for a days labor.

2. The situation makes it appear that this “job” is one where a combat engineer unit would normally be assigned. Sending civilians into combat to build defenses is just nuts.

3. The fact that the Russian Government is seeking help from the civilian sector just screams that the list of options is limited at best.

4. My initial reaction, is CNN just fell for another hoax. I could be wrong, but releasing this kind of information to the media does not build any confidence in Putins ability to contain the situation.

This could be an Ukrainian effort to exert still more pressure on Puttin. If so, it is a pretty good propaganda effort, that works on several levels.

Russian performance to date in this war has varied, but if this is a propaganda ploy by the Ukrainian side, it appears that the Russians are not even trying to keep up appearances.

By Terry O'Carroll (Terryoc) on Thursday, August 15, 2024 - 04:00 am: Edit

IIUC it's the Kursk Oblast government (the provincial government) not the russian federal government offering this money. There's a labour shortage in russia right now. (Putin announced zero unemployment, which economists say indicates a labour shortage. About 5% unemployment is considered ideal.) In the russian federation, local governments are responsible for recruiting contract soldiers to send to die in Ukraine, and recruitment bounties have been inflating sharply because they just cant find enough meat to feed into the grinder.

In addition, a lot of the civilians who can get out of the way of the advancing Ukrainians are doing so. I'd be willing to bet the Kursk Oblast government is having a lot of difficulty finding people to dig trenches, hence the high wages.

By Terry O'Carroll (Terryoc) on Thursday, August 15, 2024 - 05:58 am: Edit

Ukraine has reportedly managed to interfere with russian efforts to move troops to Kursk Oblast by phoning civilians in the area, posing as russian authorities, and telling them to evacuate. This created congestion and chaos on the roads, delaying troop movements and making the trucks carrying troops vulnerable to attack. There's video footage from russian civilian dashcams showing wrecked trucks and dead soldiers on Telegram, so it's true that Ukraine has attacked and destroyed at least some of the reinforcing russian troops. IDK about the other details.

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Thursday, August 15, 2024 - 09:18 am: Edit

Ukraine has continued to consolidate their gains in the Kursk Salient, and has pushed the line east from Sudzha, creating a small buffer beyond the city's edge.

By Ted Fay (Catwhoeatsphoto) on Thursday, August 15, 2024 - 11:47 am: Edit

---

Quote:

1. The rate of pay offered is very exorbitant and much higher than the normal amount offered for a days labor.

---

By Mike Erickson (Mike_Erickson) on Thursday, August 15, 2024 - 02:09 pm: Edit

The lucky laborers may very well be dead before they collect any cash.

--Mike

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Thursday, August 15, 2024 - 04:51 pm: Edit

Dang.

Say, isn’t that the way the Klingons recruit laborers from their subject races?

By Steve Petrick (Petrick) on Thursday, August 15, 2024 - 05:15 pm: Edit

Putin is trying to raise morale by reminding people of how they dug trenches before the Geramns in the great patriotic war.

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Thursday, August 15, 2024 - 09:58 pm: Edit

But that was mandatory labor, often with real threats of violence .

Today money incentives.

It will be interesting to see if Putin is more successful in raising morale than he hsa been in prosecuting the war with Ukraine.

By Jeff Anderson (Jga) on Friday, August 16, 2024 - 12:25 am: Edit

Okay, I'll ask the dumb question...

Could this "Bribe" with the promise of a "Safe, non-combat labor job" be a trick to try to get Russian men who'd gotten "Medical deferments" to expose themselves as being fit for the draft?

Personally? I really doubt it, but if the dumb questions aren't asked, SOMEone may ask why they weren't...

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Friday, August 16, 2024 - 09:30 pm: Edit

A MSM site is reporting that today, two more Ukrainian brigades have moved into Russian territory.

That brings the total up to six full brigades and two independent battalions (that last point is most likely the two ethnic Russian provisional infantry battalions that is mostly expatriate Russian soldiers who have volunteered to fight alongside the Ukrainian Army.)

Total number of effective soldiers now invading Russia is some 15,000.

No where near the numbers Napoleon or Hitler initially deployed, but it seems to be growing.

There are reports that putin has resorted to “press gang” recruitment reminiscent of Britains Royal Navy recruitment to find additional bodies to throw into battle.

Anecdotally, stories include male refugees who fled the region.

Family members are telling reporters that in St. Petersburg, busses are being loaded with males who do not have proper papers for being in St. Petersburg for transport back to the battle. One of the men “recruited” ( was,is?) 70 years old wnd blind in one eye.

Gone are the days where the Russian Army was more particular about the quality of their soldiers.

By Terry O'Carroll (Terryoc) on Saturday, August 17, 2024 - 10:15 am: Edit

Amazing how the russians just keep getting surprised by Ukrainian attacks. The Moskva, the assassination of the Black Sea Fleet staff officers, the incursion into Belgorod, blah blah ad nauseam, and now this incursion/invasion into Kursk. They react and adjust, but the horrible surprises just keep happening to them.

By Jeff Anderson (Jga) on Saturday, August 17, 2024 - 11:10 am: Edit

Curious insight Terry.

Yet another dumb WAG from me; could Russian High Command consist of folks who were appointed to their posts based solely on two elements, one being a fawning loyalty to Putin and the other being a lack of initiative? Those two elements would seem to be key in making sure the folks in potential positions to launch a coup against him are folks who have the least ability to do so...

By Mike Grafton (Mike_Grafton) on Saturday, August 17, 2024 - 12:09 pm: Edit

"assassination of the Black Sea Fleet staff"
A strategic decapitation attack vs the commanders of the enemy is NOT an assassination.

Just like sniping officers first isn't a tactical assassination.

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Saturday, August 17, 2024 - 07:11 pm: Edit

Russian milbloggers claimed on August 16 that Russian drone operators are limiting their use of Mavic drones amid claims that Russian commanders are forcing operators to either personally pay to replace drones lost outside of combat or risk being sent to an infantry assault unit as punishment for losing a drone. Russian milbloggers claimed that one Mavic drone costs 400,000 rubles (about $4,475) to replace and that Russian commanders are particularly concerned about losing Mavic drones compared to other equipment due to frontline drone shortages. Russian milbloggers noted that losing drones is unavoidable but recommended that Russian drone operators do everything within their power – from writing their name on the drone to equipping the drone with a separate GPS beacon – to find their drones and avoid punishment.

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Saturday, August 17, 2024 - 11:03 pm: Edit

The Times (pod cast) posted a report on the Ukrainian military invasion of Russia.

Lot of details, but the big point was the reaction of the Russian civilians to the Ukrainian Army in Russia.

Not hostility, no public demonstrations, almost like it is business as usual.

Spent more time talking about what the average British citizen would do if a foreign country invaded england.

The tone seems surprised that the Russians are not offering any measurable resistance to the invasion.

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Saturday, August 17, 2024 - 11:52 pm: Edit

The former Soviet Kiev class cruiser/carrier Minsk caught fire today in a Chinese harbor at 4pm local time

Absolutely stunning photos of the burning Ex-Russian ship.

No cause given, though it has been announced that there will be an investigation.

Be advised, the media is calling it a aircraft carrier, but that is not technically correct. More of a hybrid cruiser and half flight deck ASW ship.

It apparently has not been in Russian service for a number of yerars now.

By Jeff Anderson (Jga) on Sunday, August 18, 2024 - 12:20 am: Edit

It's my understanding (and thus probably wrong ) that during the Soviet Era, they had an agreement with Turkey to allow Black Sea ships to pass through the Bosphorus Straits, but the Turks would not permit Carriers through.

(Of course, it's also my understanding that, to call the fixed wing aircraft aboard the ships of that class, "Worthless and Pathetic," is being overly generous of their capabilities and reliability, so perhaps calling ships of that class, "Carriers," may also be overly generous, but again, what do I know... )

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Sunday, August 18, 2024 - 06:46 am: Edit

In the past few days, the Kursk Salient has expanded considerably in the area east of Guyevo and Sudzha.

By Terry O'Carroll (Terryoc) on Sunday, August 18, 2024 - 11:27 am: Edit

russian civilians in Kursk appear to be offering no resistance to Ukrainian occupiers whatsoever. No protests, no partisans, nada. There's a russian philosopher on YouTube who talks about how the mass of russians have become "depoliticised" by Putin's government. So they're passive. Ukraine or Putin? Doesn't matter as long as they have a roof over their heads and food to eat. It's a total contrast to the response from Ukrainian civilians to the russian invasion.

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Sunday, August 18, 2024 - 12:12 pm: Edit

Terry:

It will be interesting to see if it continues.

Russia has been invaded several times, by the Germans (technically twice including both world wars) French (again, technically twice if you count Napoleon and the Crimean War), as well as (various ethnic groups including, but limited to) china, mongols, sweden etc. heck, even the united States Marine Corps has sent expeditions to Russia on, I believe two occasions , one in Murmansk and the other some port on the Pacific coast.

IIUC, this time is different. In a lot of ways, Russia has written a lot of the chapters in the book on partisan warfare.

To have the Russian civilians offer no resistance flies in the face of nearly 2,000 years of Russian history.

By Mike Erickson (Mike_Erickson) on Sunday, August 18, 2024 - 04:01 pm: Edit

My sense is the Russians who remain (who were not financially/logistically mobile enough to flee the country) won't welcome the Ukrainians with open arms since they don't want to be harshly punished for doing so when or if the Russian military reasserts itself.

So I wouldn't characterize those Russians as depoliticized or passive, but rather traumatized and pragmatic. It's really sad, actually. The best they can manage, given where they are psychologically, is just to hope that things don't get worse.

--Mike

By Mike Grafton (Mike_Grafton) on Monday, August 19, 2024 - 08:47 am: Edit

I think Russia is heading to a time when all their foreign exchange is the sale of discounted oil, internet scams, low quality weaponry & porn.

Which is sad because Russia has vast reserves of resources, a decent transportation infrastructure. and a population that is reasonably well educated.

By the way, the Bosphorus treaty is the Montreux convention.

"Only Black Sea states may transit capital ships of any tonnage, escorted by no more than two destroyers."

"Although the Montreux Convention is cited by the Turkish government as prohibiting aircraft carriers from transiting the Straits,[29] the treaty actually contains no explicit prohibition on aircraft carriers. However, modern aircraft carriers are heavier than the 15,000-ton limit imposed on warships, which makes it impossible for non–Black Sea powers to transit modern aircraft carriers through the Straits."

By Terry O'Carroll (Terryoc) on Monday, August 19, 2024 - 08:48 am: Edit

It's a lot different to the Nazis, who treated the occupied populations with great brutality. By contrast, Ukrainians troops are maintaining discipline, obeying the laws of war, and also distributing food. There is some looting, but it is reportedly by russians looting the homes of other russians who fled before the oncoming Ukrainians.