Wasn't there a Russian commander during Stalingrad that never reported casualties so the rations of vodka kept staying the same?

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Wednesday, October 30, 2024 - 12:44 pm: Edit

This morning, the Economist, a magazine in the U.K., reported that north Korean Soldiers are defecting from North Korea, and applying for asylum in South Korea, but in their application, are requesting that they be released to assist Ukraine in its war with Russia.

Also, the article states that the current number of North Korean soldiers currently in Russia is approximately 50,000, organized into three groups each commanded by a general, and a senior commander to senior command .

No unit designations, and the size of the groups was not explicitly stated. The senior commanders were not named.

No response from Ukraine yet, on whether they will accept volunteers from North Korea.

The article did state that there are a number of North Korean soldiers who attempted to defect, but were arrested by North Korean officials before they were able to reach safety in South Korea.

By Jeff Anderson (Jga) on Wednesday, October 30, 2024 - 03:16 pm: Edit

"False Defectors" with the job of attacking the Ukraine support network prior to a big push?

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Wednesday, October 30, 2024 - 04:27 pm: Edit

These are apparently about 200 defectors who have been in South Korea for varying periods.

That being said, the original report sources back to the South China Morning Post, which is more or less a mouthpiece for the CCP. I trust it precisely as far as I can throw Xi Jinping.

By MarkSHoyle (Bolo) on Wednesday, October 30, 2024 - 07:52 pm: Edit

It would probably be safer in Ukraine than in SK for defectors... Occasionally, hear of NK agents in SK there to kill / kidnap defectors, not just from the military...

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Wednesday, October 30, 2024 - 08:53 pm: Edit

Mark, the same has been reported of North Korean defectors/deserters in China.

Some have reportedly married and are raising children in china (apparently the one child policy didn’t apply to undocumented immigrants from North Korea…)

The reports were several years ago, but I do not rrcall reading anything lately to indicate any change.

By Ryan Opel (Ryan) on Wednesday, October 30, 2024 - 09:26 pm: Edit

China's one Child policy was officially ended in 2016.

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Wednesday, October 30, 2024 - 11:10 pm: Edit

Ryan,

Yes, but deserters from North Korea predate and post date 2016.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Friday, November 01, 2024 - 11:17 pm: Edit

ABOUT PUBLIC OPINION POLLS
I have been meaning to write this for a long time, but didn't have as much energy to do as many things as I want to do. I am going to try to be as non-partisan as I can be.

I have followed the election with interest. (For the last 3 months I haven't been able to do much else.) For a long time, the constant polls showing similar or different results intrigued me.

I knew that most of the polls said that a certain candidate was comfortably likely to win a certain state. Then on a talking head panel show, one of the panel members said that her candidate (the other one) was leading that state by eight points, a comfortable lead. What happened?

Nothing happened. The poll was bogus. As we all know, you can get any poll result you want by asking the right questions in the right order, by questions like "Given that this candidate has said they will immediately execute 90,000 members of the Promise Breakers Club in violation of the constitution, do you feel you could vote for for this candidate?" (hint, the candidate never said any such thing), or by the clever idea (thanks to modern computer databases) of just calling a state that has 47% members of one party and making sure that the 1,000 people you can include 600 members of that party.

Why would a polling company deliberately produce false data? Any number of reasons. Their own bias. To manipulate the flow of campaign contributions. To convince their followers that it's not a lost cause. To convince their opponents that it IS a lost cause.

I have, several places, seen charts showing which polling companies during 2020 and 2016 had the most accurate poll numbers. The charts of pollster accuracy don't agree. Why? Because one is compiling every poll during the course of the campaign while the other is only compiling the last poll take (from a few days before the election). So if I created ColePollBureau and did a poll every week manipulating the results to get the answer I want to publish (when the answer I publish is wildly wrong) all I have to do is do one honest poll at the end and my ratings for accuracy will (as charted during the next election) show me to be super accurate when in fact I was the most inaccurate of pollsters. That is why in the last 72 hours we have been a sudden "surge" as votes shift (in the polls, not in reality) because pollsters know they need to clean up their acts and do real polls just for the last time around.

Other things can play a role. A poll of residents of an area won't produce the same result as a poll of registered voters and neither will match a poll of likely voters (those who voted in the past two elections).

There have been last minute surges that no poll detected, such as Reagan's victory over Carter and Truman's victory over Dewey.

There have been changes in election laws. The 'Red Wave' two years ago didn't happen because nobody was expecting the result of mail-in/drop-off ballots when one party brilliantly orchestrated thousands of volunteers to go knock on doors and make sure that people voted. Thus the expression in 2020 and 2022 that "they stole the election fair and square". Yes, you can win the election with a better ground game. Whether that is stealing the election depends on whether it was your party that won or not.

I urge you to take polls with a grain of salt, go vote even if you think your side already won or already lost, give money if you want to give money even if you think the outcome is going to be this or that. If you really have a lot of time on your hands (say, due to a broken hip) you can study the pollsters and see which of them during polls the same number of days (comparing 2016, 2020, and 2024) before the election were seriously over-counting one side.

The only poll that matters is the one you voted in down at the courthouse.

By Carl-Magnus Carlsson (Hardcore) on Saturday, November 02, 2024 - 12:51 am: Edit

Add polls to the category "annoying dross that clutter up the news "along with news about jobs and stockmarket fluctuations.
Some countries have laws that forbid polling a few week or so before the election. I like that idea, but it should be extended to the whole period.

By Charles Gray (Cgray45) on Saturday, November 02, 2024 - 01:50 am: Edit

one problem with Polls is that people, especially younger people... just don't answer phone calls if they don't know the number. With more and more, and more sophisticated attempts to steal your identity or scam you, it's just becoming a rule of thumb of: don't recognize: don't answer and block. And that's seeing polls having a harder and harder time to get accurate results, unless you're talking in person polling, which is, of course the most expensive, time consuming and difficult.

Some of the polls that have been publicized, for a wide range of political causes, in fact, when you read down to their methodology are thins like "an opt in poll question on the Internet" which is just utterly useless.

I expect this isn't going to get any better in the future.

By Mike Grafton (Mike_Grafton) on Saturday, November 02, 2024 - 10:34 am: Edit

SVC is absolutely right.

If I poll the locals at a gun range I will get a totally different result than if I poll everyone at a Nails & Waxing Salon. At an Evangelical Baptist Church or Unitarian one. Or most pointedly, in a very wealthy neighborhood or poor one.

By Michael F Guntly (Ares) on Saturday, November 02, 2024 - 11:15 am: Edit

I polled everyone living at my address and results were unanimous for one candidate.
Therefore I claim this candidate will win in a landslide!!!

By A David Merritt (Adm) on Saturday, November 02, 2024 - 12:30 pm: Edit

Alferd E. Neuman for President!

By Carl-Magnus Carlsson (Hardcore) on Saturday, November 02, 2024 - 12:48 pm: Edit

Why vote for the lesser evil? Cthulhu for president!

(You KNOW it makes sense in a two-party system!)

By MarkSHoyle (Bolo) on Saturday, November 02, 2024 - 01:14 pm: Edit

one problem with Polls is that people, especially younger people...

Follow up to that, report that majority of Gen Z, refuse to answer or actually lie about who they plan to, or voted for....

The don't answer the phone issue, has been around for many decades, not limited to young people....

By Terry O'Carroll (Terryoc) on Saturday, November 02, 2024 - 02:25 pm: Edit

I've read an article today that shows that the explanation is simpler than SVC's. Pollsters ask a simple question like "If the election were held today, which candidate would you vote for?" Pollsters get results that favour one candidate by a surprisingly large margin, simply decide that the data must be wrong and that the actual numbers must be more even, and misreport the result.

By Jeff Anderson (Jga) on Saturday, November 02, 2024 - 08:12 pm: Edit

Last time I took a call from a pollster, they were part of one campaign. Their questions made it clear that they were trying to influence my opinion with them.

About half way through, I called them on that. They denied it, of course, but if "I" noticed it, it was something just too blasted obvious.

Anyhow, they hammed and hawed for about half a minute before disconnecting the line.

Since then, I've not trusted pollsters.

At the risk of annoying the `Gators, I have noticed that this political cycle has had more incident of political violence than we've seen in decades. How many people have refused to talk to pollsters out of fear of being the target of this violence?

I have, and I doubt that I'm alone...

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Sunday, November 03, 2024 - 05:21 am: Edit

The Israeli air raid on Iran wiped out the Russian-built air defense network, meaning that if Israel has to do it again, the oil refineries and nuclear facilities are not protected.

By Charles Gray (Cgray45) on Monday, November 04, 2024 - 02:03 am: Edit

I'd say beyond anything else, Russian kit has taken a huge blow in the "do we want to buy this" department. I expect in the future, nations that do purchase Russian equipment either A. got a huge deal, or B. are unable to source equipment, not simply from the US, but any nation even remotely allied to us.

By Jean Sexton Beddow (Jsexton) on Monday, November 04, 2024 - 11:43 am: Edit

Be careful writing about polls and politics. I've had my fill of it. And none of it has to do with the military.

Anything further will be deleted.

Jean
WebMom

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Tuesday, November 05, 2024 - 06:35 am: Edit

Anecdotal reports of recent Russian Soldiers surrendering to Ukrainian Army to escape being shot at by North Koreans.

There are continuing reports of radio intercepts of Russian troops complaining about North Korean soldiers, variety of complaints, but there are reports of “friendly Fire” incidents.

At some point, it will become necessary to find out which side North Korea is on.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Tuesday, November 05, 2024 - 07:04 am: Edit

Everyone keep calm, be sure you voted, and watch the election reports tonight if you really care. The first swing states to report (Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania) may tell the tale very quickly, one way or the other. Everyone pray (or keep positive thoughts if that's your thing) that the winner won't be as bad as the opposition said they would be. Nobody wants a civil war. America is a tough old eagle and we will get through this.

By Mike Grafton (Mike_Grafton) on Tuesday, November 05, 2024 - 07:59 am: Edit

To the NK, it may be that Ukrainians and Russians all look alike.

True story.

I was at Camp Leatherneck in Afghanistan when one of my Indian Mechanics has me "come at once" to a K Span where an accident had happened. The hydraulic cylinders of the levelling system on a 7 ton truck had failed and blew hydraulic all over the place. Flying hydraulic piston has murdered a toolbox, but missed all the people.

After making sure no one was hurt, I tell the regional Manager (Lester) and start my investigation. Turns out that if you touch a power probe to terminal B and bus 5 (whatever), the hydraulic pump goes to high speed mode and the safeties are all disabled. I start my interviews and the mechanics tell me all about it, about how they were using the manual, etc. Everyone is here except "the white man." Questioning doesn't get a name or better description. SO I ask "What, do we all look alike to you?" The black mechanic I had brought in as a disinterested expert (to help me suss Hydraulics and Wiring diagrams) from the other K SPan just about pees himself laughing.

Turns out this is a KNOWN issue, but the manufacturer didn't bother to put it in the documentation. So we tattle on them and the US Army repair manual gets an update...

By the way, the US Army has an amazing system for documenting stuff detected by mechanics. They even produce a little magazine with diagrams and stuff. PS Magazine. I think it finally got discontinued, but it was interesting, even to me a certified non "mechanicing" kind of guy.

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Tuesday, November 05, 2024 - 08:51 am: Edit

Thank you, Steve, for your "keep calm" post.