Morale: Fear of Failing
November 14, 2024: Peace in Ukraine is proving very difficult to achieve. Ukraine demands all its territory back. That means Russia giving back Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk provinces as well as other bits of territory currently in their possession. Vladimir Putin’s attitude is that what’s mine is mine and what’s yours is negotiable. Putin also ignores all the documented war crimes Russian troops have committed carrying out Putin’s orders. Ukraine and the rest of the world have not forgotten but most Russians support Putin and his war in Ukraine. Putin is also stubborn. He will concede nothing until he has no other option and perhaps not even then. Putin continues to believe that NATO and the West will eventually tire of supporting Ukraine and allow Putin to ravage Ukraine until it is again part of the Russian Empire.
The war has been going on for nearly three years now and none, not even most Russians want it to continue for a few more years. Sanctions have eviscerated the Russian economy and most Russians feel the pain. But the politicians and their wealthy oligarch allies live in the cities and feel no pain. Putin realizes that the Russian people know how to suffer in silence and endure for as long as it takes.
Ukraine is negotiating a solution with NATO and the EU that includes Ukrainian membership in NATO despite the ongoing war. NATO is willing to make an exception for Ukraine because NATO is supposed to defend its members and Ukraine is seen as worth defending. The threat has always been Russia and now that Russia is ravaging Europe’s eastern borderlands it’s time for NATO to step in and step up. This includes Ukraine joining the EU, an economic union that will integrate the Ukrainian economy with the rest of Europe. Currently Ukraine expects to achieve all this by the end of the decade. Ukraine has a plan and so does Putin. When the plans collide, who will win?
NATO countries represent a GDP of $32 trillion while Russia’s is two trillion. NATO GDP is growing while Russia struggles. Russia has plenty of oil, natural gas and food but exporting those goods is complicated by sanctions. Russian industry discovered that it was dependent on Western technology to keep its economy going and, with most of that tech no longer available, even the Russian railroads are grinding to a halt.
If Putin persists, most of the industrialized world will resist. Putin will have only himself to blame for the economic and military disaster he has led his nation into.
--FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, November 18, 2024 - 02:27 pm: Edit

Winning: Black Sea Blackout
November 14, 2024: There are things Russia does not want to deal with or be reminded of. One of these forgettable items is the loss of the Black Sea Fleet and the inability for the Russian navy to operate in the Black Sea. Russia recently held its annual naval exercises and this year none of those operations took place in the Black Sea. Over the last three years Russia has lost 29 warships in the Black Sea and doesn’t want to lose any more.
Ukraine has no navy but they do have a lot of imagination and know how to innovate and quickly build and use their innovations. This is how hundreds of Ukrainian air and naval drones wiped out the Black Sea Fleet. Ukraine can export its agricultural products and import what it needs via the Black Sea. Russia has to depend on ports in the north, near the Arctic Circle. There are air and naval bases up there along with NATO members Norway and Finland to keep an eye on what the Russians are up to. There isn’t much to report because Ukraine figured out a way to make drone attacks on Russian forces in the far north.
In 2022 Russia believed it could hunt down Ukrainian forces wherever they were. Now Russian air and naval forces are attacked wherever they are. In 2022 Russia believed they could strangle Ukrainian trade via control of the Black Sea. Defeat of the mighty Black Sea Fleet was inconceivable. Then it happened and the Russians are trapped in a disaster they created.
--FYEO

By Jeff Anderson (Jga) on Monday, November 18, 2024 - 10:15 pm: Edit

Seen some news headlines.

Reports are that the North Korean troops aiding the Russians appear to not be performing very well.

Sources are questionable, but explaining why I don't trust them will see me fed to alligators.

Anyone got any good intel on the reality of the situation? Thanks

By Terry O'Carroll (Terryoc) on Tuesday, November 19, 2024 - 06:50 am: Edit

Ukraine has hit an ammunition storage facility in Bryansk, north of Kursk and supplying troops in Kursk with ammo, with... something. Ukrainian media are quoting an anonymous official source claiming it was ATACMS, russians are saying "missile", speculation online is that it was a jet powered drone or Jewish space lasers or God knows what.

By Jeff Anderson (Jga) on Tuesday, November 19, 2024 - 11:57 am: Edit

With as many false rumors as there are on the internet, should we start one saying that it was flying saucers from some alien peoples?

By Douglas Lampert (Dlampert) on Tuesday, November 19, 2024 - 12:32 pm: Edit

Let's see, US authorizes use of ATACMS against targets in Russia in the Kursk area in support of the fighting near Kursk.

A day or so later, something a lot like an ATACMS hits a Russian ammo dump ner Kursk supporting the fighting near Kursk.

Unless someone thinks Russian air defense is completely impenatrable by ATACMS (in which case we've been wasting a lot of money on ATACMS). I'm completely mystified as to why there would be rumors of anything much but a ATACMS strike.

Somewhere in Munich, William of Ockham is spinning in his grave.

By Steve Petrick (Petrick) on Tuesday, November 19, 2024 - 02:51 pm: Edit

The explosion of the ammo dump could just be sloppy Russian (North Korean) handling of (out of date?) munitions, and Putin is looking for a reason to go (tactical) nuclear. Zelensky is claiming Ukraine hit the site to show Ukraine is still in the war, although reports to date indicate that the Ukrainians are losing slowly but surely losing as Putin will fight to the last Rouble and foreign soldier (and Russian soldiers if he has to).

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Tuesday, November 19, 2024 - 03:25 pm: Edit

Air Defense: Anti Drone Laser That Works
November 19, 2024: The U.S. Army has developed and deployed four Locust Laser Weapon Systems at undisclosed locations overseas. The 2.1 by 2.1 meter system weighs 1,540 kg and the system can be carried on an 8x8 Stryker wheeled vehicle. The laser has a range of about 800 meters and is used against large drones in places like Syria and now Ukraine.
While weapons like the GMLRS missiles fired by the HIMARS vehicle are high tech, the Russians already have similar systems and could, if they wanted to, develop a GMLRS clone. The Locust Laser technology is a little more exotic and some may have been sent to Ukraine for more intense combat testing despite the risk of capture. The Ukrainians will take extreme measures to avoid that because the longer they have a monopoly on this technology the more damage they will do to Russian drones while avoiding similar damage to their own.
Similar weapons have been developed. The Israeli Iron Beam laser comes in two versions. The larger one has a range of ten kilometers. The smaller, portable one has a range of two kilometers and can be truck mounted. Iron Beam is not expected to be ready for combat use until late 2025. If that schedule is met, Israel will have a low cost laser weapon to complement Iron Dome and its expensive Tamir missiles. The laser system has an inexhaustible ammunition supply and can rapidly fire at incoming targets using a proven fire control system developed for autocannon systems that have been in use for years.
In early 2024 Britain announced that it had developed a laser-based weapon called DragonFire that can destroy or disable a UAV several kilometers away. Each shot costs about $13 for the electricity generated in the vehicle or ship carrying the DragonFire system. Britain is installing DragonFire in a 6x6 twelve-ton Wolfhound armored truck. DragonFire is also going to be installed on warships and replace conventional anti-aircraft or anti-missile systems.
The U.S. Navy has long sought to install more laser weapons on its ships. In 2010 the navy successfully tested a laser weapon, using it to destroy a UAV and then repeat that several times. The laser cannon was mounted on a KINETO Tracking Mount, which is similar, but larger and more accurate than the mount used by the Phalanx CIWS/Close In Weapons System. The navy laser weapon test used the radar and tracking system of the CIWS. In 2009 CIWS was upgraded so that its sensors could detect speedboats, small aircraft, and naval mines. Knocking down UAVs is not something that the navy currently needs help with, and the current laser gun technology has to be improved quite a bit before it's worth mounting on a ship.
This is a similar situation with laser weapons in the other services. In 2010 the U.S. Air Force fired its ALT/Airborne Laser Testbed laser while in flight and hit a ballistic missile that had just been launched and was moving at 1,800 meters a second. The laser beam took several seconds to weaken the missile structure and cause it to come apart. This test came only eight months after an ALT was fired in flight for the first time. The target was some lumber on the ground, which was hit. The ALT weapon was carried in a C-130H four engine transport.
FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Tuesday, November 19, 2024 - 03:26 pm: Edit

Intelligence: Russian Sleepers In Ukraine
November 19, 2024: The Ukrainian security service (SSU) recently detected several Russian agents operating in Kherson, which is near the Black Sea northwest of Crimea. Three Russian spies were arrested. Each of them was operating independently, without knowledge of other Russian operatives. This is a common practice in all espionage agencies. The Russian spies were working jobs, like driving a cab, that allowed them to get around without raising suspicions. Interrogators found that the Russians were currently seeking locations and status of Ukrainian air defense systems and other military targets, especially those difficult to identify using aerial reconnaissance. Earlier SSU had disrupted an espionage network seeking location of Ukrainian HIMARS missile launcher vehicles. These are kept hidden because the Russians fear these mobile missile launchers, and the damage they do to Russian artillery units and supply storage sites.
Eastern Ukraine always had a large Russian population because during the 1930s Russians were brought into eastern Ukraine to replace all the Ukrainians who died during the Holodomor (Great Famine). The famine was caused by the Soviet government exporting nearly all grain produced in that part of the country for several years. This was part of a Soviet plan to raise additional foreign currency to pay for importing Western machinery needed to industrialize Russia. This plan worked, and leader Josef Stalin saw the dead Ukrainians as necessary to enable Russia to build factories for producing commercial and military products, including tanks and the new multiple cell rocket launchers they had recently invented.
FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Tuesday, November 19, 2024 - 04:21 pm: Edit

Information Warfare: Hunt For The Russian Cyberwarrior
November 13, 2024: the United States continues to hunt down and prosecute Russian hackers that were responsible for Cyber War attacks on Ukraine just before the Russians invaded in 2022. Five suspects are members of the Russian military and in Russia. The United States has offered a $60 million reward for those who make possible the arrest of the Russian hackers. This is the largest reward the United States has ever offered. These rewards work and the Americans keep quiet about who received an award and how the U.S. often arranged to have the award winners and their families relocated and sometimes put in a form of the U.S. witness protection program.
The Russian cyber-attacks on Ukraine were known as Whisper Gate and were carried out by the Russian GRU military intelligence organization. The GRU, in one form or another, has been around for 300 years. Espionage and dirty tricks are a long Russian tradition.
FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Tuesday, November 19, 2024 - 04:22 pm: Edit

Warplanes: Keeping F-16s Out Of Russia
November 12, 2024: Ukraine has been promised nearly a hundred F-16 jet fighters and currently has about twenty of them in service. These jets stay at least 40 kilometers from the Russian border because of the massive number of anti-aircraft missile systems stationed there. There are plenty of Russian targets inside Ukraine for the F-16s to attack. NATO nations that donated the F-16s did not provide enough SEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defense) weapons to deal with the Russian air defenses inside Russia and along the border. Ukraine still attacks targets deep inside Russia using drones. These aircraft are cheaper and carry no pilots. For the cost of one F-16, Ukraine can buy over 300 of these drones. While the drones don’t have hardpoints for carrying bombs, they do have video cameras that enable a distant operator or the guidance systems in the drone to find a specific target and attack it. The remotely controlled drones have to deal with Russian jamming and, when the Russians are able to disrupt the control signal, the drones are programmed to either return to base or attack one the nearby targets programmed into its flight computer.
FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Tuesday, November 19, 2024 - 04:23 pm: Edit

November 11, 2024: The Chinese Communist Party is energetically seeking food and respect. First priority is food. China has not got enough of it and is taking extreme measures to fix the problem. At the time China had to import about 40 percent of its food for a hungry population of a billion people. Since the 1990s China has been assisting Russia to develop thinly populated areas in central and eastern Russia to feed the hungry Chinese. FYEO

By Alan Trevor (Thyrm) on Tuesday, November 19, 2024 - 04:30 pm: Edit

---

Quote:

Each shot costs about $13 for the electricity generated in the vehicle or ship carrying the DragonFire system.

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By Carl-Magnus Carlsson (Hardcore) on Tuesday, November 19, 2024 - 10:15 pm: Edit

SPP, the Nuclear Sabre rattling doesn't seem to work that well as a deterrent any longer. Too many Russian red lines crossed and no reaction. I suppose the cost outweighs the benefits, still.
Frankly I don't see they can afford to use that weapon ever except for a literal do or die situation.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Tuesday, November 19, 2024 - 10:47 pm: Edit

More of a literal "die or go out in a blaze of glory" situation.

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Wednesday, November 20, 2024 - 05:46 am: Edit

The “Mutual Assured Destruction “ or MAD theory assumes both sides are both intelligent and rational.

It breaks down when one or both sides do not have certain motivations such as ensuring the survival of the civilization.

The classic example was Adolph Hitler, and his mental decline at the end of WW2. Such as irrational behavior, issuing orders for military units to perform specified tasks when those units had already been destroyed in combat, ordering both military and civilian personnel to continue resistance long past the point of reason, and expecting a miracle to save the situation, then committing suicide rather than risk capture.

Putin has shown some worrying signs that he is not in rational control anymore.

The question is, will those around him cater to his decline or step in to prevent a catastrophic collapse of Russia?

By Terry O'Carroll (Terryoc) on Wednesday, November 20, 2024 - 09:26 am: Edit

It's not clear if Ukraine has unitary warhead ATACMS missiles, or if they only have the ones with submunitions. Given the target, it seems likely that a single-warhead ATACMS would have to have been used. Unless, of course, there was still ammo out in the open and submunitions could set it off. My opinion is that it's probably an ATACMS missile, and in spite of the target not being in Kursk proper its role in supporting the russian forces in Kursk made it a legitimate target

By Terry O'Carroll (Terryoc) on Wednesday, November 20, 2024 - 11:22 am: Edit

Ukraine has hit buildings in the village of Mar'ino in russia with Storm Shadow missiles. Mar'ino is about 40 Km from the border with Ukraine. I can't find any information on what the target of the strike was. Command post maybe?

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Thursday, November 21, 2024 - 08:07 am: Edit

It appears that Russia has used an RS-26 ICBM against Dnipro in east-central Ukraine, albeit without a nuclear warhead. If confirmed, this would be the first operational use of an ICBM.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Thursday, November 21, 2024 - 11:56 am: Edit

It was not an RS26. It was a smaller IRBM.

At about 0300 UTC Nov 21, Russia launched a long range missile from Kapustin Yar against the Ukrainian city of Dnipro. The US has said that reports that the missile was a Rubezh (15Zh67) ICBM are incorrect; a smaller and shorter range missile is likely involved.

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Thursday, November 21, 2024 - 12:25 pm: Edit

Regardless of the specific missile used, the bigger point that should be addressed, is, Russia is / has been / was expected to engage is a scenario with various titles.

The more popular version, is called “Brinksmanship”.

The idea, is a variation on a stupid game indulged in by self absorbed male children, often long out of adolescence, called “Chicken”.

Two males, one each in his vehicle of choice, out on a deserted road out of town agree to drive towards each other at a ridiculously high rate of speed (often way over the legal limit).

The one who “chickens out” (or turns away, pulls over or in some way indicates that he does not have either the courage or reckless disregard for his own life) loses.

Brinkmanship is a theory in Diplomacy, like the game of chicken) is a test of will, the loser who fails to continue the contest signals that he will withdraw troops, or reduce/eliminate support for an ally or other concessions rather than continue to press ahead on the game thus risking death, destruction or even war.

Sadly, the players here are playing for high stakes.

Putin has to be seen as both dominant and successful in achieving some obvious objective.

The current U.S. President may just want to be seen as relevant and engaged.

To be honest, it is questionable that either side is competent to determine just what is a win.

By MarkSHoyle (Bolo) on Thursday, November 21, 2024 - 12:40 pm: Edit

Germany announced they are creating operational plans to move 800k Nato Troops into Ukraine, if Russian puts troops on any Nato nation....

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Thursday, November 21, 2024 - 03:00 pm: Edit

Information Warfare: Tactics, Techniques and Deceptions
November 21, 2024: NATO efforts to halt Iran from supplying Russia with ballistic missiles to use in Ukraine are not yet having much impact. Ukraine reports they are still being hit by Iranian missiles fired by Russian forces. NATO sanctions are directed at Iranian airlines as well as key political and military officials. Iran says it will block any further missile transfers and admits that some missiles were sent to Russia in the past.
FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Thursday, November 21, 2024 - 03:06 pm: Edit

Air Defense: American Anti-Drone Systems
November 20, 2024: An American firm, Anduril, has developed a novel new anti-drone system called Roadrunner This system is 1.8 meters tall and has twin jet engines, weighs about 85 kg and has a top speed of about 700 kilometers an hour. Most other specifications and capabilities have not yet been released.
Roadrunner is a small VTOL/Vertical Take Off and Landing drone that can be used for reconnaissance and return after each mission and be reused several times. If the explosive warhead and fire control system is used, Roadrunner will operate as an explosive drone that will destroy itself when it demolishes a drone, helicopter or aircraft.
The Department of Defense has purchased 500 Roadrunners for about $400,000 each. Most of them will go to the Special Operations Command/SOCOM, which will use Roadrunner to support its Special Forces or SEAL operators. Roadrunner is transported in a box-like launch container. This container can be moved by UH-60 helicopter via a sling underneath. With a larger transport helicopter, like the CH-47, the container or containers can be carried inside the helicopter on pallets.
Roadrunner has not completed development and the ones purchased so far are being used by SOCOM to see how well the drone functions in an operational environment. Some may be sent to Ukraine for use by Ukrainian forces. FYEO

By Jeff Anderson (Jga) on Thursday, November 21, 2024 - 03:55 pm: Edit

Five hundred RoadRunners.

Four hundred thousand bucks apiece.

That's two hundred million dollars.

A lot of money.

On the other hand, how does that compare with the price of a single F-22 or F-35?