$200M is pretty cheap in high tech military hardware dollars, IMHO.

For $200M one could only buy 1-3 modern aircraft, and that wouldn't count the cost of ordinance, pilot and mechanic training, maintenance, and support.

And the 500 drones could be deployed in many locations, even simultaneously.

This Roadrunner thing sounds like it could potentially be very effective, and cheap for what it does.

--Mike

By Charles Gray (Cgray45) on Friday, November 22, 2024 - 03:29 pm: Edit

One of the things that is puzzling me is the sheer panic in the news media over the fact that the Russian missile had conventional MIRV warheads. The idea of using conventional MIRV payloads has been mooted, at least AFAIK since the late 1970s, and the improvements in guidence systems made it a when, not if, such systems would be deployed--heck it's pretty much a straight extrapolation up from the proliferation of guided submunitions for other types of weapon systems, ranging from cruise missiles to tactical ballistic missiles.

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Friday, November 22, 2024 - 06:03 pm: Edit

Could be a variation on the old “If it bleeds, it Leads.” Trope in journalism.

With the recent election in mind, Main Stream Media is desperate to find a story line that could make them relevant in the lives of the desired demographics.

Back in the day, “Yellow Journalism” held that (among other things) public opinion could be controlled by the MSM.

That said, everything they tried this year has largely failed, this is the latest attempt to frighten the public with the specter of a nuclear war between Russia and NATO (including Ukraine by implication, if not by formal treaty or membership.)

By Jeff Anderson (Jga) on Friday, November 22, 2024 - 07:25 pm: Edit

As a terribly underinformed civilian, Charles, I can only guess that a conventional MIRV might be intended as a strategic take on the artillery MRSI concept; having multiple (GPS guided?) warheads simultaneously strike a number of strategic targets, like, say, the headquarters buildings (or personal residences?) for the top five to ten leaders of a terrorist organization? The thought being that multiple targets being eliminated at the same time would mean taking them out BEFORE they could scurry away like cockroaches.

Aw, heck, with the precision I've heard about of the SDB, it might be possible for a single strategic MIRV to launch a score of SDB sized, hyperprecisely targeted submunitions at all sorts of top membership of some international terror group.

Again, though, I'm not a very well informed person, so this guess is probably not the best. Besides, the same effect could be accomplished by other means, and a weapon designed for such a singular purpose would probably not be worth the cost to deploy and maintain it.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Saturday, November 23, 2024 - 10:51 pm: Edit

How is Trump going to force Ukraine and Russia into a peace deal?

If Russia refuses to deal, Trump can dial up support for Ukraine until Russia deals. Or he could give Russia some Ukrainian land they haven’t taken yet, buying off Ukraine with something else, see below.

If Ukraine refuses to deal, Trump could cut off aid, but NATO is still backing Ukraine to a point. Trump could also offer Ukraine membership in NATO, garrisons of German, American, and other troops on Ukrainian soil, and a direct mutual defense treaty. That might include basing US tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Ukraine would probably take a deal in which it gets back some of the territory conquered by Russia, but the Russians aren’t likely to agree to that without a major push.

Ukraine is likely to give the US priority access to its huge supplies of titanium and lithium, and might even agree to send Ukrainian troop to Gaza as peacekeepers.

By Mike Erickson (Mike_Erickson) on Sunday, November 24, 2024 - 09:25 am: Edit

I don't see Russia dealing. Why would they? They hold more territory than they did at the beginning of the war, and Ukraine has not shown an ability to take any of it back.

I don't see Trump doubling down on supporting Ukraine. It would require quite a bit more equipment, more training, integration, and delivery time, more money, or perhaps even some US or NATO troops in theater. And it's speculative if such doubling down would even work and allow a strengthened future Ukraine to eject Russia from some or all the captured areas. It's a dead end at this point.

There really isn't any need to "make" Ukraine take a deal. The US gear just thins out and then stops showing up. Ukraine and the European NATO nations can do whatever they want. It's their continent, go figure it out.

Since the Biden administration defined the purpose of the war was to bleed Russian of troops and military hardware, just say mission accomplished and take the win. Ukraine has lost some territory and Russia has been bled quite a bit. All done.

--Mike

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Sunday, November 24, 2024 - 10:32 am: Edit

The Russia of today, is not the same Russia of the 1970’s that the CIA claimed it to be.

Every year, the CIA would trot out its satellite imagery and HUMINT (human intelligence) To “Prove” the Russian Boogyman could conquer Europe when ever it wanted, leave the United States radioactive for 50,000 years and (at the same time) destroy Americas nuclear triad (Bombers, Submarine launched ballistic missiles and land based nuclear missiles), before any of it could launch.

In short, Putin is not in the position to intimidate anyone.

Worse yet, from Putin’s position, the Russian Army failed spectacularly. The Russian Air Forces Failed to bomb the Ukrainians into submission, and the subsequent strategy (destroying the electrical power grid, the rail Road system and the roads and bridges also failed.

The Ukrainians are proving every day, that they have no interest in being reintegrated into a new successor Russian Empire.

The Chinese weapons paid for with scarce hard currency just did not function as advertised, the North Korean old style Soviet structure (and ancient Soviet era weapons) failed.

Putins cards, in this game has turned out to be a busted flush.

The smart play, would have been to broker a deal early on after the original invasion failed. Rebuild the army and air forces, this time with functional and effective weapons. Expand the army, and add reforms to make it effective, then try again after 3 or four years. (Or however many years it required…)

All of which boils down to a ver few conclusions.

Putin, (like Hitler in the 1930’s and 40’s) recognized that time was not on their side. Perhaps the rumors that Putin is ill, and not going to live long enough to rebuild the Russian empire of his dreams.

Regardless, the longer this goes on, the weaker Putin appears to be.

Desperate men do desperate things.

The situation is not materially changed by a change in the United States Administration.

There may not be a deal to be had here.

By Mike Grafton (Mike_Grafton) on Sunday, November 24, 2024 - 10:38 am: Edit

The question is whether just offering Ukraine immediate NATO membership is on trumps mind.

Article 5 and all that.

By Mike Erickson (Mike_Erickson) on Sunday, November 24, 2024 - 11:15 am: Edit

>> Putins cards, in this game has turned out to be a busted flush.

I guess I don't really see it that way. The Russian mentality just assigns a different value to people and equipment. If you lose a lot, and I mean A LOT, and you get a chunk of territory for it, then that's considered a win. Particularly if, in a peace deal, Russia gains formal recognition of the ownership of Crimea. Huge win.

Russia can always grow back people (140M population) and build new gear. In the post war peace, lucrative oil, natural gas, and fertilizer revenues all return to normal. Various sanctions get dropped. Heck, maybe even resume cheap natural gas sales to Europe. Let a few years go by and then the Russians can plan for their next expansion target.

--Mike

By MarkSHoyle (Bolo) on Sunday, November 24, 2024 - 01:43 pm: Edit

Russia can always grow back people (140M population) and build new gear.

Russia, even while leading the USSR had a population growth issue (more declines than growth),
killing off a generation of breeders isn't going to help that issue in the least bit....

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Sunday, November 24, 2024 - 02:25 pm: Edit

No, it can’t.

In 2022 the Birth rate in Russia declined to 1:42, which is below the rate needed to maintain its current population.

Russia has issues, and those include high infant mortality, and according to recent polling, married couples are declining to have children due to economic reasons.

The national economy in Russia has been a disaster since Putin returned to power, and shows no sign of improving.

It is interesting to note the birth rate is at its lowest point in 25 years, which places it at 1999, and 6-7 years after the fall of the U.S.S.R. ( note: not the date of the fall of the Berlin Wall.)

By Terry O'Carroll (Terryoc) on Sunday, November 24, 2024 - 02:37 pm: Edit

russian population is not 140 million. Their official statistics claim it, but estimates by sociologists published in peer-reviewed journals put it at about 100-115 million. (My source is a lecture delivered by sociologists on a university YouTube channel, quoting other people's research).

By MarkSHoyle (Bolo) on Sunday, November 24, 2024 - 07:00 pm: Edit

Considering those killed/maimed or leaving the country, wouldn't be hard to assume the majority of the country has matured out of the child bearing age....

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Sunday, November 24, 2024 - 07:53 pm: Edit

Robert A. Heinlein, a Science Fiction author, also wrote other books and articles.

One, an account of his observations of Russia during a world tour included his assessment that the reported population of a number of Soviet Russian cities were over stated significantly, along with his conjecture as to why the Russian Government would perpetuate such a fiction, as well as to why the U.S. government would accept the fraud at face value.

Dated, but still an interesting account of his experiences.

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Sunday, November 24, 2024 - 10:28 pm: Edit

Oh, written about his travels in 1953-4, published posthumously 1992.

By Charles Gray (Cgray45) on Tuesday, November 26, 2024 - 12:53 am: Edit

Keep in mind that russia's system of government and population put them in the same problem the old USSR had--they cannot keep up, technologically, with the US/Europe/China/other nations. If you look at a lot of their projects they're still offshoots of the old USSR stuff. The fact that Russia is having so much difficulty with Ukraine, even if you count the (far from full scale) western aid, shows just how utterly outmatched they are compared to the PRC or US.

Trying to stay away from the swamp, but I know a number of Russian IT professionals who essentially fled the nation for the US and Europe, largely because their options and bluntly, safety under the law were far more sedcure there, and they're unlikely to ever return.

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Tuesday, November 26, 2024 - 06:14 am: Edit

Charles Gray:

Anecdotal evidence seems to indicate that PRC has much of the same problems “keeping up” with western technological progress.

Yes, they steal a lot, and they made great strides after 1972 when Nixon started the process of “thawing relations”, but recent events in China seems to undermine the appearance of China’s actual achievements.

Militarily, financially, economically, speaking, China is a basket case. The huge investments china has spent building a new economic trade sphere across Asia and Africa is failing on a spectacular scale. The border incidents with India reveal systemic corruption in the peoples army.

The recent failure to duplicate Space X achievements is also indicative.

There was even a recent report that membership in the communist Party (even though it is mandatory) has fallen to an all time low since 1949.

In short, China is not the utopia that the PRC wants everyone to believe.

By Mike Grafton (Mike_Grafton) on Tuesday, November 26, 2024 - 07:48 am: Edit

The problem is that:

1) Communism is only great in theory; in practice it is nothing like it is supposed to be. Probably the closest such thing are the Kibbutz of Israel.

2) Modern Communist governments are really fascist states that CALL themselves communist.

3) And Oligarchical Kleptocracies are just a little step away.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Tuesday, November 26, 2024 - 03:41 pm: Edit

Leadership: Rebuilding the Russian Military
November 24, 2024: Because of its heavy personnel and material losses in Ukraine, Russia plans to slowly rebuild its depleted armed forces by 2030. This process begins now even though Russian forces are still fighting in Ukraine. There are still problems replacing the troops and tanks lost during the first months of the fighting in Ukraine, let alone those suffered in the past two years. The Russian military was devastated by heavy personnel losses. Most of their modern tanks were destroyed. These losses were replaced by older model tanks and hastily mobilized troops who did not want to be in the army, and were particularly reluctant to be sent to Ukraine. By 2023 Russian forces in Ukraine were outnumbered by better armed, trained and motivated Ukrainian forces that were able to carry out some offensive operations that regained some territory.
Russian replacement troops sent to Ukraine were given little training and were poorly equipped. Some were seen wearing World War II style steel helmets that Russia had kept in storage just in case of another military disaster. That was what Ukraine turned out to be for Russia, who had to send some 1950s era T-55 tanks into Ukraine to face German Leopard 2 tanks and American M-1s used by Ukraine.
The Russian situation in Ukraine is desperate and Russian plans to rebuild its military are equally desperate. First, they have to stall the Ukrainians and massive amounts of NATO weapons and munitions. That was done with anti-tank mines and lots of trenches and other tank obstacles. Russian combat engineers are first rate and use specialized equipment to quickly dig trenches and build fortifications. The front line is a thousand kilometers long and not all of it is fortified. The areas covered by only a few troops and artillery are now patrolled 24/7 by drones. If a surprise attack was attempted, both sides have large supplies of drones that could quickly intervene.
The unexpected invasion of Ukraine reminded NATO nations that Russia was still a threat. This led to NATO nations upgrading and expanding their forces. Poland, a NATO member that shares border with Ukraine and Russia is acquiring a thousand South Korean K2 tanks. These are comparable to the latest Leopard 2 and M1 tanks. Most of the K2s will be built in Poland under license. By the end of the decade, Poland will have the largest tank force in Europe.
Russia plans to rebuild and expand its army, despite discovering that wartime losses and emigration had greatly reduced the number of men able to serve in the military. Another problem is the cost of this rebuilding. Not only does Russia lack the money to replace all the lost equipment, but it does not have the money needed to pay for recruiting, equipping and training 600,000 new troops. The plan calls for a force containing volunteer soldiers who signed contracts that paid them well to serve several years. In addition there were several hundred thousand conscripts who were supposed to serve only one year but because Russia had suffered such heavy losses in Ukraine, the rules were quickly changed to keep the young, poorly trained conscripts in the army for several years.
This latest and greatest new plan ignores past experience with contract soldiers. These men were willing to serve in a peacetime force that would defend the motherland. Invading a neighbor and running into very hostile and lethal locals was unexpected and unacceptable. Many of the contract soldiers did not survive the initial weeks of the invasion. After that contract soldiers began to leave the military, with many justifying this on the grounds that their contracts had been violated. This departure was technically illegal but there were so many departing contract soldiers that the government just let them go. The government planners seem to have forgotten this but many of the military-age men they plan to recruit remember past mismanagement and are not interested. The government response to this is chiefly more attempts to deceive potential recruits into signing up.
Russian rebuilding efforts are disrupted by the harsh and aggressively enforced economic sanctions Western nations imposed. Sanctions reduced Russia’s ability to build new armored vehicles, military aircraft, as well as missiles and much else. Russia was eventually able to obtain some sanctioned electronic components from the black market and Chinese equivalents. Despite the improvisations, new tanks and other weapons were slow to arrive. It’s just as well because obtaining new soldiers was not working either.
The current Russian strategy appears to consist of trying to maintain control over as much Ukrainian territory as possible for a few years in the hope that the NATO nations supplying Ukraine with weapons will tire of the expense and reduce that aid. While NATO nations are feeling the strain, they have not reduced their support and have recently been increasing it.
Despite all these problems, Russia has been able to assemble a large force of half a million soldiers, including 12,000 North Korean mercenaries. Russia continues to buy a lot of North Korean artillery ammunition as well as rockets and missiles. Russia pays for this with food and technical assistance for their nuclear weapons program. North Korea has already developed nuclear weapons, but they are crude and difficult to use effectively.
These rebuilding plans depend on fewer or no sanctions and a reduction in combat losses. At the moment the Ukrainians their NATO supporters insist they will continue the war until the Russian invaders are out of Ukraine, including Crimea and two nearby provinces seized in 2014.
FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Tuesday, November 26, 2024 - 03:41 pm: Edit

Special Operations: Ukraine in Africa
November 24, 2024: For over a year Ukraine has been supporting rebel groups in Africa that are fighting members of the Russian Afrika Corps. Russia is currently supporting rebel or government forces in several African countries. These activities are meant to improve Russian influence in Africa, where there are many natural resources that are up for grabs and Russia wants to compete with Europe, America and China for these items. To do that the Wagner Force was reactivated in Africa. Wagner is now government controlled and works for the Defense Ministry.
Ukraine provides training and other aid to government or rebel groups that are under attack by Russian forces. Most of the current fighting is in Mali, where a 2021 coup put pro-Russian Mali colonels in charge. Despite criticism from foreign aid donors like France, the colonels threatened to seek alternative financial aid and managed to obtain the services of Russian mercenaries. Russia was interested in post-war economic deals with Mali and the Mali military government felt more comfortable dealing with the Russians than the French. Russia has supplied Mali with food and fertilizer and mercenaries to help deal with Tuareg separatists and Islamic terrorists in the north.
Over the last decade the Islamic terrorists have been operating closer and closer to the Mali capital Bamako. In September 2024 there was an attack on a military base and the airport outside Bamako. Some aircraft were set on fire. The army captured fifteen of the attackers. In July about forty Russian mercenaries were ambushed and killed in the north near the Algerian border. A Tuareg militia carried out the attack during a sandstorm.
The coup leaders have utilized Mali's gold mines as a resource, though this has also led to protests and security crackdowns. Russia is helping Mali expand gold production The Russian presence is not welcome except to the army officers running the military government. The Tuaregs and local Islamic terror groups are particularly hostile to the Russian presence. The military government and their Russian allies have taken heavy losses recently but still control most of the country. This won’t last because popular unrest caused by growing poverty and violence is threatening the military government.
Ukraine has intervened to assist Mali Tuareg rebels fighting the Russian backed groups. Ukraine provides training for the rebels. Meanwhile the Mali government has cut diplomatic ties with Ukraine because they blame Ukraine for recent Tuareg victories that left 84 Russian mercenaries and 47 Malian soldiers dead.
FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Tuesday, November 26, 2024 - 03:45 pm: Edit

The basis of communism is "everyone does all they can do, and everyone takes only what they need."

That fails the human nature test. Young single people CAN do more work but don't see why they should do more to get paid less (as they have no dependents) while older married people with children are expected to do less (as they need family time) while getting more (as they have to support non-working children).

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Tuesday, November 26, 2024 - 03:47 pm: Edit

Forces: Russia Runs Out of Soldiers
November 26, 2024: Russia is running out of soldiers for its war in Ukraine. Now in its third year, the war has cost Russia at least 600,000 dead and wounded soldiers. The economy went from rebuilding in 2021 to contraction and substantial reorganization by 2024. These heavy military and economic losses can no longer be ignored or misrepresented inside Russia. Over a million Russian men have served in Ukraine and more than half have been killed and wounded. By the end of 2022 Putin outlawed any reporting of Russian casualties in Ukraine. For most Russians the high casualty rate in Ukraine was no secret. Too many Russians knew men who had gone to Ukraine and either came back in a coffin or disappeared. About two percent of military age Russian men have been in Ukraine, usually only 200,000 at a time.
By late 2023 most Russians realized that service in Ukraine was guaranteed to get most men killed or wounded. Enough came back to reveal what was actually happening there. While Putin controlled the mass media, he did not control the internet and that is where Russians could get timely and accurate information about what was happening in Ukraine. Putin tried to keep that information from appearing on the Russian internet. He had some success but such censorship was a sign that the situation was bad in Ukraine for Russians. Soon Russian hackers had found ways to evade the government censorship and let the truth in.
From the beginning Russian soldiers were ordered not to bring their cell phones to Ukraine. Many did so anyway and were able to obtain sim chips that provided access to the international internet. There were many Russian language news services available outside Russia providing a more accurate account of what was happening in Ukraine. Russian soldiers with cell phones told friends and family back home what was actually happening. Putin found that his draconian censorship could not be enforced without putting millions of Russians in prison. A few prosecutions were carried out. It was not enough to stop Russians from getting accurate news of the mess in Ukraine.
The situation became desperate after a Ukrainian invasion of Russia in August 2024. The invasion force is still there because Russia could not gather enough troops to force them out. In a desperate move, Russia hired 12,000 North Korean soldiers. Since the 1990s Russia has hired North Korea workers to replace Russians who could no longer be coerced by the defunct Soviet Union to live and work in the Russian Far East. North Korea needed the money and had hungry workers available. The government kept most of the workers’ pay but left them enough to encourage more North Korean workers to volunteer for jobs in Russia. The North Korean workers were accompanied by secret police guards to make sure none of the workers tried to escape control of the North Korean dictatorship.
Russian losses were so heavy in Ukraine because replacement troops sent in were given little training and were poorly equipped. Some were seen wearing World War II style steel helmets that Russia had kept in storage just in case of another military disaster. That was what Ukraine turned out to be for Russia, who had to send some 1950s era T-55 tanks into Ukraine to face Ukrainian Leopard 2 tanks and M-1s supplied by Germany and the United States.
The Russian situation in Ukraine is desperate and Russian plans to replace its losses and rebuild its military are equally desperate. First, they have to stall the Ukrainians and their massive amounts of NATO weapons and munitions. That was done with anti-tank mines and lots of trenches and other tank obstacles. Russian combat engineers are first rate and use specialized equipment to quickly dig trenches and build fortifications. The front line is a thousand kilometers long and not all of it is fortified. The areas covered by only a few troops and artillery are now patrolled 24/7 by drones. If a surprise attack was attempted, both sides have large supplies of drones that could quickly intervene.
Russia won’t admit it, but they are losing in Ukraine and the Ukrainians are attacking and regaining more ground. Russia still launches offensives but only takes heavy losses with little to show for it. Currently the Russians are trying to assemble enough troops to drive the Ukrainian forces out of Kursk province. The Ukrainians have been there since August. So far Russian efforts have recovered about 40 percent of the Ukrainian occupied territory. The Russian offensive is stalled because of a lack of troops. The North Korean are supposed to help with that but so far, the Russian counteroffensive in Kursk is not making much progress.
The Ukrainian invasion was embarrassing for Russian president Vladimir Putin. This is the first invasion of Russia since the Germans invaded in 1941. Back then, Russia lost 27 million soldiers and civilians defending Russia and driving the Germans out and advancing on Germany, Back then Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union and Ukrainian soldiers were among the most effective in the Russian Red Army. The Ukrainians are still tough fighters but now they are fighting Russians and winning. Many Russians disapprove of the Ukraine War because Russian troops are not defending Russia but fighting to expand Russia. This is what Putin wants and a growing number of Russians, including Putin’s economic oligarch allies believe the cost is too high and victory is unachievable. During World War II it was substantial American military aid that enabled the Soviets to defeat the Germans. Now that aid is going to Ukrainians fighting a Russian invasion. This is not World War II and Russia is not facing a powerful foreign invader. Instead Russia has violated the post-World War II European peace that lasted 77 years until Russia invaded Ukraine. Now most NATO nations are rearming by expanding and upgrading their armed forces. Russia will not only lose in Ukraine, but also face a much stronger NATO that is heavily armed and determined to maintain economic sanctions on Russia until Russia adopts a less threatening foreign police. That includes getting out of Ukraine.
FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Tuesday, November 26, 2024 - 03:47 pm: Edit

Yemen: The Red Sea War
November 26, 2024: The Suez canal blockade by Yemen’s Iran-backed Shia Houthi militia and shipping continues. Ships traveling north in the Red Sea towards the Suez Canal have been under attack by the Houthis since late 2023. The Houthis are at war with Israel and still fire at ships more or less at random, though they contend they only fire on ships serving Israel. So far over 60 ships have been attacked and half of them damaged. Two ships were sunk while two others were boarded by Houthi gunmen and captured. One was later released but the other one is still being held. Four sailors have been killed and eight wounded. Several ships have been hit this month but all have continued to the Suez Canal.
The U.S. Navy sent a carrier task force to launch air strikes on Houthi targets with predictable minor effects. That led to more frequent and aggressive attacks which reduced Houthi activity.
On July 19th, one of the Houthi drones hit a building in the Israeli city of Tel Aviv, killing one civilian and wounding several others. The next day, Israel sent F-15 and F-35 fighter-bombers to destroy several economic targets in the Yemen Red Sea port of Hudaydah. This is where weapons arrive from Iran for the Houthis to use against Red Sea shipping. The airstrikes destroyed fuel storage sites as well as port facilities, including the difficult-to-replace ship unloading cranes. If the Israelis leave the port alone this work could take up to a year. The Israelis and other nations are not leaving the port of Hudaydah alone as long as the Houthis are using it.
Yemen’s Shia rebels, led by the Houthi tribe, have used their large stockpile of Iranian missiles to try and block access to the Suez Canal. This capability developed over the last decade as the rebels launched attacks on more distant targets. The rebels obtained more powerful weapons as well, including Iranian ballistic missiles, which were disassembled so they could be smuggled from Iran to Yemen, where Iranian technicians supervised the missiles being assembled and launched into Saudi Arabia. In the last few years, the rebels have received longer range ballistic missiles fired from northern Yemen across Saudi territory to hit Saudi and UAE oil production facilities on the Persian Gulf coast. The rebels also acquired the reconnaissance capability to accurately fire missiles at ships passing through the narrow, 26 kilometers wide, Bab-el-Mandeb straits off southwestern Yemen and force ships to take the longer and more expensive and time consuming route around the southern tip of Africa. This has always been a potential threat to ships using the Red Sea to reach the Suez Canal in Egypt, at the north end of the Red Sea. Transit fees from ships using the canal are a major source of income for Egypt, bringing in about $10 billion a year. Egypt and Iran are enemies and reducing Suez Canal income is a win for Iran, which supported the Yemen rebels for more than a decade to make such an interdiction possible.
Western nations reacted slowly to this interdiction effort but by the end of 2024 were launching regular airstrikes on Houthis targets, coordinating their efforts with the Israelis and U.S. carrier task forces operation in the region. In October 2024 American B-2 bombers dropped penetrating bombs on Houthi underground facilities, destroying missile stockpiles and headquarters for the rebels. This reduced the number of missiles available. This was seen in lower frequency of attacks. A naval blockade of Yemen was i Yemen was tightened, with more frequent inspection of fishing boats and coastal freighters.
Western warships close to the Yemen shore continue using their defensive weapons to defeat attacks launched from the Yemen coast. The United States currently has several destroyers based off Yemen.
The war in Yemen drags on into 2025 or until Iran decides to halt support for the Houthi. Before the Israeli attacks on Gaza and Iran-backed militias in Lebanon, Iran was under widespread internal pressure from Iranians protesting the expensive foreign wars in Syria and Yemen. Until 2024 Iran smuggled in more and more weapons. These were not intended for the ongoing Yemen civil war but for use against targets designated by Iran. Iran suddenly had its own domestic uprising to deal with back home. The Iranian religious dictatorship held onto power and supported more violence against real or perceived enemies of Iran. The blockade of late 2024 and continuing naval patrols near all Iranian ports is also limiting missile shipments to Yemen.
In early 2015 Iran admitted it had been quietly supporting the Houthi Shia rebels for a long time but after that was open about it. Many Yemenis trace the current crisis back to the civil war that ended, sort of, in 1994. That war was caused by the fact that, when the British left Yemen in 1967, their former colony in Aden became one of two countries called Yemen. The two Yemen’s finally united in 1990 but another civil war in 1994 was needed to seal the deal. That fix didn't really take and the north and south have been pulling apart ever since. This comes back to the fact that Yemen has always been a region, not a country. Like most of the rest of the Persian Gulf and Horn of Africa region, the normal form of government until the 20th century was wealthier coastal city states nervously coexisting with interior tribes that got by on herding or farming or a little of both plus smuggling and other illicit sidelines. This concept of nationhood is still looked on with some suspicion by many in the region. This is why the most common forms of government are the more familiar ones of antiquity like kingdom, emirate, or modern variation in the form of a hereditary secular dictatorship.
For a long time, the most active Yemeni rebels were the Shia Houthis in the north. The Houthis have always wanted to restore local Shia rule in the traditional Shia tribal territories, led by the local imam, a religious leader who was a Houthi. This arrangement, after surviving more than a thousand years, was ended by the central government in 1962. Yemen also became the new headquarters of AQAP/Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula when Saudi Arabia was no longer safe for the terrorists after 2007. Now there is ISIL/Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant and an invading army composed of troops from oil-rich neighbors like Saudi Arabia, which was very upset by Iranian/Houthi missile attacks.
By late 2017 the rebels were slowly losing ground to government forces who, despite Arab coalition air support and about five thousand ground troops, were still dependent on Yemeni Sunni tribal militias to fight the Shia tribesmen on the ground. While the Shia are only a third of the population, they are united while the Sunni tribes are divided over the issue of again splitting the country in two and with no agreement on who would get the few oil fields in central Yemen. Many of the Sunni tribes tolerate or even support AQAP and ISIL. The Iranian smuggling pipeline continued to operate, and the Yemen rebels were able to buy additional weapons from other sources because they received cash from nations or groups hostile to the Arab Gulf state, especially Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The Shia Houthi rebels were from northern Yemen and controlled the border with Saudi Arabia. Over the last decade the rebels launched more and more attacks on Saudi targets and in later 2023 and into 2024 that violence escalated.
FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Tuesday, November 26, 2024 - 03:51 pm: Edit

Forces: Cossacks in Ukraine
November 25, 2024: Russia, desperate to find more manpower to reinforce their troops in Ukraine, has turned to its small Cossack population. Russia made a deal with the Cossack leadership to persuade the millions of Ukrainian and Russian Cossacks living in Russia to support the Russian war effort in Ukraine. Prior to 2024 Russia had not sought to recruit Cossacks. This was part of an effort to maintain and improve good relations with Cossacks in Russia. So far this year over 50,000 Cossacks have served in the Russian forces in Ukraine or the forces gathered to push Ukrainian forces out of Russia’s Kursk province. The Ukrainians entered Kursk in August. Russia is also using 12,000 North Korean mercenaries for the Kursk counterattack. As of November 2024, the Ukrainians are still in Russia.
Russia has not tried to involuntarily mobilize Cossacks into the army, as that could antagonize Cossacks in general and possibly cause loyalty problems with Ukrainian Cossacks living in Russia. There are over five million Ukrainian and Russian Cossacks living in different parts of Russia. Both Ukrainian and Russian Cossacks consider themselves Cossacks first. Russian officials understand that and since late 2023 have persuaded over 20,000 Cossacks to fight in Ukraine. Russia hopes to recruit more because Russia is running out of Russian soldiers. The Cossacks and their leaders are aware of the high Russian casualty rate in Ukraine. That makes it difficult to persuade more Cossacks to fight in Ukraine.
When Russia first invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the Ukrainian response was Cossack in the way Cossack tactics were used successfully against the Russian invaders.
These 21st Century Ukrainian Cossacks performed like the first Cossacks did 500 years ago, traveling light and using whatever weapons they could carry and use on foot or on horseback. The 2022 Ukrainian used pickup trucks and cars for transport and a lot of NATO supplied anti-tank weapons to supplement the Ukrainian made ones.
The original Cossacks were most effective at raiding and restricting the movements and capabilities of a larger force. Cossacks would raid supply columns and force the enemy to use more troops for guard duty and larger reconnaissance patrols. Cossacks could weaken a larger force and reduce its offensive capabilities.
It’s not surprising that these modern Cossacks would emerge in Ukraine during the 2022 invasion, This sort of speedy improvisation by a largely recent volunteer force of civilians is one reason the Russians have been losing. The Ukrainians know what they are fighting for while most of the Russian troops who initially invaded were unaware they were invading Ukraine until hastily organized and armed Ukrainians began ambushing them with effective anti-tank weapons and superior tactics and communications. Initially most Russian troops were unsure why they are invading Ukraine while the Ukrainians were defending themselves any way they could. Now Russia is trying to create its own Cossack force. How successful that will be remains to be seen.
These neo-Cossacks, in the form of small, mobile motorized forces, were first developed by the British during World War II in North Africa. German and Italian forces established airfields and supply storage sites out in the desert that were lightly guarded because any ground force would be spotted from the air before it got near. To get around that Britain developed the LRDG/Long Range Desert Group consisting of small units of a dozen or so men in wheeled vehicles modified for off-road use in desert terrain. The troops were volunteers trained to use these vehicles and navigate in the desert. While raids on remote airfields and supply depots were the most dramatic operations, the most valuable role of the LRDG was collecting information on enemy strength, dispositions and movements. This often involved monitoring enemy traffic on the coastal roads, which were the primary traffic route in North Africa. Out of this came the British SAS/Special Air Service commandos and the maritime version, the SBS/special boat service. After World War II other nations based their special operations forces on the British model.
American Special Forces and similar commando groups in other NATO countries are also able to operate in the Cossack fashion and regularly train that way based on their experience of the Ukrainian Cossacks. While NATO has donated over $100 billion military and economic aid to Ukraine, the Ukrainians have shared their combat experiences with NATO as well as details of new weapons Ukrainians have designed and built. The war in Ukraine is the first war between technological equals since World War II. That’s over 60 years with much change in weapons or tactics. Now, in less than three years the war in Ukraine has revolutionized how wars are fought and established the parameters for 21st Century warfare.


FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Tuesday, November 26, 2024 - 03:52 pm: Edit

Air Weapons: Ukrainian Strategic Drone Warfare
November 23, 2024: Recent Ukrainian drone strikes in northern Russia, near the Arctic Circle, came as a surprise to the Russians because the targets were 1,800 kilometers from Ukraine. The main target is Olenya air base where Tu-95, Tu-160, and Tu-22 bombers are based. From there, these bombers fly south and launch missiles against targets in Ukraine. Russia has not got many operational bombers at Olenya and each one damaged or destroyed on the ground means fewer missiles hitting Ukrainian targets. Currently the Russians are firing missiles at cities rather than smaller military targets. The military targets are heavily defended and few missiles get through. The cities are larger targets and less well protected. While this causes casualties and makes civilians homeless, it angers Ukrainians, just as similar Nazi attacks against London 84 years ago did with the British.
The Russians regularly underestimate the Ukrainians and these attacks on airfields so far from Ukraine are another example of that. The Russian government claims that attacks were carried out by NATO or American forces. Only a few Russians, and some nearby Norwegians, witness these attacks and know the attackers are Ukrainian drones. . Western TV and internet based media report on these attacks with videos and interviews of eyewitnesses. Any Russian that looks closely enough at this evidence knows the truth, but to repeat that information is a crime that can get you imprisoned.
Ukraine won’t reveal how it is carrying out these attacks, which requires drones traveling that far with great accuracy against small targets. Ukraine carries out seemingly impossible tasks. It is likely that the U.S. supplies Ukraine with satellite photos of the targets and Ukraine has American Starlink terminals which can be operated in vehicles, ships and aircraft. Cameras in the long-range drones enable the operators in Ukraine to see what is on the ground and hit targets with great precision.
Russia is concerned about the frequency and accuracy of these attacks on their Arctic Circle bases. One of those bases is a storage site for nuclear weapons. This did not prevent the Russian Navy from conducting their Ocean-2024 military exercises in the polar region as well as the Baltic Sea and the Russian Far East Pacific Ocean ports. Nothing happened in the Black Sea, where Ukrainian air and naval drones had destroyed most of the Black Sea Fleet, with the remnants hiding in distant Black Sea ports throughout the northeastern Sea of Azov branch.
FYEO