The White House has now ordered a stop to sharing Intel with Ukraine. You know, they are really putting on pressure on them. I wonder why. There could be a several reasons but I think Trump and the administration simply takes the easiest route to a cessation of hostilities; They have easy leverage on the Ukrainians but not on the Russians. Ergo force Ukraine to confessions that will tempt Russia to the negotiation table.
If the Ukrainians doesn't cooperate, the WH can blame the Ukrainians, wash their hands, lift sanctions and start doing business with Russia (as they have already started talks about)

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Wednesday, March 05, 2025 - 02:09 pm: Edit

The 12-month summary of Russia's 2024 progress in Ukraine: hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers were killed or wounded, and whole mechanized divisions were lost, in exchange for Ukrainian territory slightly larger than the state of Rhode Island. At that rate, Russia will control all of Ukraine in about 118 years.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Wednesday, March 05, 2025 - 02:18 pm: Edit

I dunno, Jessica, I think once you're passed 75 years you'll hit the tipping point and the whole thing will go in 10 or 12 more years.

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Wednesday, March 05, 2025 - 03:48 pm: Edit

Newsweek published an article in February 2025 about Russia low birth rate. Average of 1.42 live births is below the number needed to maintain its population. Lowest since 2000 ce.

Putin was quoted in the article, that he intends to increase the birth rate in Russia… but offered no details beyond a cash incentive program.

Honestly, if Putin botches the turnaround in the birth rate improvement as badly as the Ukraine war has gone, Russia is in serious trouble.

I posted an article here some days ago about China in a death spiral as far as birth rates are measured. China is in real bad trouble if the government can’t fix it.

Russia is in trouble too. Not as bad as the case with China, but still bad.

By Ryan Opel (Ryan) on Wednesday, March 05, 2025 - 10:16 pm: Edit

They are going to have a huge problem considering how many people have died in the war.

Also most of Russia's birth rate in the minority populations in the East and not ethnic Russians.

By MarkSHoyle (Bolo) on Wednesday, March 05, 2025 - 10:40 pm: Edit

There are multiple times the number of people (male mostly), that left Russia....
Those being of military and breeding age (not sure what to call males in that position)...

Have no idea what the number may be, but for nearly 20 years, thousands of Russian Children were adopted out of the country.....

By Ryan Opel (Ryan) on Wednesday, March 05, 2025 - 11:11 pm: Edit

More than 60,000 Russian children were adopted by American families between 1992 and 2012, according to figures from the U.S. State Department.Mar 24, 2022

By Carl-Magnus Carlsson (Hardcore) on Wednesday, March 05, 2025 - 11:41 pm: Edit

2012 Russia banned adoptions to the USA.

Heard on the Radio the other day that wars have been fought with population capture as the primary goal.
Ukraine would add 45 million people to the Russian pool easing the problem of pop decline.

Btw, forced adoptions of 20,000 Ukrainian children by Russians is one of the war crimes Putin is wanted for.

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Thursday, March 06, 2025 - 10:54 am: Edit

The White House is now:

• no longer sharing intel with Ukraine;
• discussing lifting sanctions against Russia;
• in talks with opposition leaders in Ukraine; and
• planning to deport the 240,000 Ukrainian refugees in the U.S.

If the president hasn't chosen a side, he's doing a stellar impression of someone who has.

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Thursday, March 06, 2025 - 12:37 pm: Edit

It is simple:

Trump has to bring both sides to the table.

Ukraine is between a rock and a very hard place. They at least understand what the stakes are.(Even if Zelensky is oblivious to the facts.)

The trick is bringing Russia to the table.

Biden proved that no matter how hard Russia gets hit (sanctions, Ukrainian arms deals, uniting NATO in ways Putin NEVER imagined.) the stick just doesn’t work against Russia.

Trump, no matter how liberals may hate him, just proved that he is intelligent enough to know when to use the metaphoric carrot.

Offering a few tidbits to Putin costs NOTHING , up front.

If Trump can force a peace settlement, in which both sides are unhappy, perhaps it is one that might work.

Yes, Ukraine needs security, but the first step is bringing both sides to the table.

But perhaps more important, is stopping the killing.

By Alan Trevor (Thyrm) on Thursday, March 06, 2025 - 01:34 pm: Edit

---

Quote:

It is simple:

Trump has to bring both sides to the table.

---

By MarkSHoyle (Bolo) on Thursday, March 06, 2025 - 01:36 pm: Edit

Ryan,

I do recall a case(s) where some Russian children were so unruly, that the adoptive parents returned them....
Seems that was about the time, that US / Russian relations took the turn south.....

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Thursday, March 06, 2025 - 01:43 pm: Edit

The "tidbits" as you put them, Jswile, serve only to facilitate Russia's offensive war against Ukraine.

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Thursday, March 06, 2025 - 04:02 pm: Edit

Orsini:

Recent history would seem to prove that Putin (and Russia, in particular) should live in fear of a rearmed, revitalized Ukraine.

And assuming the majority of the 240,000 Ukrainian refugees are males of military age, that pool of man power dwarfs any thing the Russians have left to tap. Russia Needs twenty years and a birth rate far higher than 1.42. (And looking at the situation, Russia is not likely to turn that around.)

A year of Russian rearming under Putins Cronies will likely result in the same units and staffing that the Ukrainian army has seriously damaged before.

A year of rearming Ukraine, assuming Trump cleans out the fraud and mismanagement … well time will tell but asymptomatic casualties that favor Ukraine is a would be a death sentence for Russia.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Thursday, March 06, 2025 - 04:07 pm: Edit

As I said about Afghanistan years ago, "this will not end well, but I don't know a better way to end it that would actually work."

Putin will, absolutely, cheat on the deal and break the agreement as soon as he builds another 4000 tanks (or orders them from TEMU.)

I like running the Russian economy into the grave, but as I said, a collapsing Russia is more dangerous than a desperate Russia.

I have said that I don't like anything we have discussed. Trump's deal with fail (and sounds like a plot for a science fiction novel). War without end will explode.

I noticed that several have said "Well, Jessica/Jake, what is YOUR plan?" and other than some vague "keep going a few more years" (which isn't a plan as we have all seen) we have seen nothing. So pick one, a plan guaranteed to fail or a plan guaranteed to start a nuclear war or the other six plans which are also guaranteed to fail.

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Thursday, March 06, 2025 - 05:10 pm: Edit

Well as part of any deal, no doubt someone (be it the Russsian Army, or 'someone else' - heck even the Mafia probably lost a bundle on the war) might well put it to Putin - you dug us into a big hole - and we just about got out it of thanks to Trump.

"Mr Putin, I doubt we will be as lucky next time - so lets ensure there is NO NEXT TIME.

If you don't like it - you can either retire to a nice Villa in the South..... or retire into the ground - your choice."

Putin gets the Glory - the Russian army gets to rebuild. Ukraine gets a peace deal (And then in 2 years time, Russia and Ukraine got offered deals to keep the peace - Ukraine in NATO/Europe Defensive Pact (with UK/French Nuclear Umbrella) - and Russia gets more access to Western Trade).

And Russia is reminded - if they do it again - they lose the $300 billion that only got frozen in this war.....

Big Stick - Big Carrot

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Thursday, March 06, 2025 - 09:03 pm: Edit

Since I've been asked:

My plan would be to double down on support for Ukraine, and bleed the Russian economy dry.

There's no shortage of folks - including at least some who are arguing against the above on grounds that it would start WWIII - who credit Reagan for spending the Soviet Union out of existence, and rightly so. Reagan's offensive strategy included providing aid to anti-communist rebels in Afghanistan, Nicaragua and elsewhere; supporting dissident groups and movements in Eastern Europe; toppling the Soviet-backed government in Grenada; tightening controls on the transfer of militarily useful technology to Eastern bloc countries; promoting SDI; a massive U.S. military build-up; and efforts to exploit Soviet economic difficulties. In short, he made them pour so much into trying to match these threats that their economy collapsed. It didn't trigger WWIII.

As I commented in detail a few days back, Russia's economy is on the brink of collapse. They can't borrow on the international market, their surplus has been consumed, and they've blown through 60% of their last-ditch National Welfare Fund. So...keep up the pressure, and let the Russians who are sick to death of Putin running them into ruin run him out on a rail.

Oh, and hey: this time, instead of treating whatever comes after Putinism as a tasty morsel to be devoured by western speculators like we did after the USSR fell over, maybe actually reach out with something akin to welcoming a post-Putin Russia into the international community, so that in ten to twenty years we don't have to play this idiotic dance all over again.

There. You wanted my idea; you've got it, and it's taken straight from Ronald Reagan.

By Mike Grafton (Mike_Grafton) on Friday, March 07, 2025 - 10:51 am: Edit

To add to Jessica.

1) Give Ukraine every F16 that the USAF was planning on sending to the boneyard

2) Ship all those old M1 tanks too. The ones with the 105mm gun. THE USMC retired a bunch of them not that long ago.

3) Stop sending cash if you really believe that corruption is an issue.

4) As an aside, what I suspect Ukraine really needs are masses of line clearing charges. Open a lane and get to the maneuver battle in the russian rear.

4) Get an actual accounting of what is being sent. No more fantasy numbers.

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Friday, March 07, 2025 - 07:26 pm: Edit

Ukraine can win, given proper support. I've published about this to my substack.

To do it, one has to be willing to punish Russia. Why they are still refining or pipelining oil within 2000km of Ukraine is beyond me.

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Friday, March 07, 2025 - 10:39 pm: Edit

Perhaps we should step back a moment and consider what are the implications of what the Russian-Ukrainian War long term impacts will be?

First, is the demographic issues of removing two generations of military aged males from both countries. Good results for the nations that accepted hundreds of thousands of healthy males into the recipient countries, at the peak of health and at the prime of life. The influx most likely is a boost to productivity and economic growth, at the expense of both Russia and Ukraine.

Tax revenue should increase as well, with the contributions of man power in those nations that received refugees .

A second possible impact, is a sharp decline in births in both countries, no males means no security for young females, no marriage, no stable home life to raise children. To be sure, a rise in the number of single parent families… but it will have to wait to see if there is a comparable drop in the number of children raised by single parent households. If the brith rate drops below 1:1, both Russia and Ukraine face a catastrophic decline in the general population.

Third, loss of population means lower productivity, and in particular, a decline in grain production. Ukraine in particular had been a major food exporter to the world market. Short term, could mean increased prices for grains in U.S. and other producer nations like Brazil and Argentina.

There has been many reports of Ukrainian attacks against Russian oil production, refinery and pipelines.it may not be surprising that Russia still manages to maintain some levels of production at multiple sites… but if Peace happened tomorrow, it is likely to be years before Russia could restore full capacity…if ever.

Do not forget that Russians have not been maintaining their facilities for decades. It is old, and at least in some published reports very archaic.

If Russia isn’t careful, they risk becoming just another failed nation. A hundred years ago, China was clearly a failed nation. Russia could end up in the same condition.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, March 10, 2025 - 05:21 pm: Edit

I am proud that you all played nice the last few days when I could not monitor the BBS. Keep behaving like gentlebeings and we'll figure this out.

By Mike Curtis (Fear) on Tuesday, March 11, 2025 - 02:13 pm: Edit

SVC - Others have been watching...

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Tuesday, March 11, 2025 - 02:54 pm: Edit

The United States agreed today to immediately lift the pause on intelligence sharing and resume military assistance to Ukraine after more than eight hours of meetings in Saudi Arabia, where Kyiv said it would support the Trump administration’s proposal for a 30-day cease-fire with Russia.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Tuesday, March 11, 2025 - 04:06 pm: Edit

I heard on the radio that a 30 day ceasefire had been announced.

By Kosta Michalopoulos (Kosmic) on Tuesday, March 11, 2025 - 04:41 pm: Edit

The Ukrainians agreed to the US proposal for a 30 day ceasefire. Now let's see if the Russians agree too. I wouldn't hold my breath.