Is Putin aware enough to know how valuable U.S. pressure on Ukraine is?

Since the start of the war, Russia has been stalled on so many fronts ( not just territories) between the tenacity of the Ukrainian people, the use of Drones for reconnaissance, anti Armor, anti personnel, ship killers and finally, destroying Russian air power by targeting aircraft sitting on Russian airfields many hundreds of kilometers behind the front lines.

If the u.s. drops all support (and consequently) loses all influence to restrain the Ukrainians, there goes any possible justification for the Ukrainian forces to not hit every infrastructure target any where in Russia that they can reach.

It won’t take a full year before Russia drops to third, possibly even fourth world status. (Depending on how aggressively the Ukrainian prosecutes their attacks.)

The race between Putin actually ordering a nuclear attack on Ukraine verses general collapse of the Russian government and the failure of the Russians to support the government… neither option is attractive since, really, no one has a chance to win.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Friday, April 25, 2025 - 08:01 pm: Edit

If Ukrainian attacks seriously hurt the Russian oil industry, Putin will lay a nuclear egg on top of some Ukrainian army headquarters. Just a friendly warning, you know, to stop it.

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Friday, April 25, 2025 - 08:54 pm: Edit

SVC, the nuclear "threat" is literally a Russian AI bot talking point.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Friday, April 25, 2025 - 10:40 pm: Edit

It's also a very real possibility. The fact that Russia told it's AI bots to talk about it doesn't mean they would never do it. It actually means the opposite: see "fair warning" in the glossary.

By Mike Erickson (Mike_Erickson) on Friday, April 25, 2025 - 11:42 pm: Edit

Realistically speaking, if Russia could use nuclear weapons in Ukraine with impunity or low consequences, wouldn't they have already been used?

Just nuke Kyiv and game over?

Or do the consequences of first use of nuclear weapons effectively preclude their use?

--Mike

By Carl-Magnus Carlsson (Hardcore) on Saturday, April 26, 2025 - 12:00 am: Edit

SVC, what do you think the consequences would be for Russia after such an act?

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Saturday, April 26, 2025 - 04:52 am: Edit

Carl - not replying on behalf of SVC, but my own thoughts.

Firstly, it is probably is worth flagging up people will have a view on where they are based.

If your in Australia, Japan and the US, a Nuclear Warhead going off in the Ukraine is a very very major world event, which will have consequences - but perhaps will not directly effect you.

If your in Eastern Europe, Scandinavia or Turkey and the same thing goes off - it will directly effect you (look at what happened with Agricultural products downwind of Chernobyl) - if more then 1 goes off - the serious levels go up.

If your in Western Europe - things will be somewhere inbetween.

What probably would happen though is those effected will blame Nation X - and Trade for a Generation or two will massively drop off.

Nation X would look to the East or far South to then Trade it's now non-bought trade goods.

(Europe would equally need to find new Trading partners).


Would Nation X being a Pariah State - inititally, yes it would be disliked round the world - but with a change of Government and time, it would gradually lose that status.

It all depends on if Nation X is strong enough to say 'we can do as we please' or is felt to have 'good reason to use it' - and some have mentioned, if you give a Nation 'no viable exit route', the valid claim we arew fighting for our lives to be applied and different rules may be applied.

So, it all depends if its a 'demonstration' attack designed to show 'we will use more to avoid being destroyed', a revenge attack prior to accepting peace terms or an attack to fully detroy your enemy*.

* - The only historical event I can think of that is in this Category is Rome and Carthage and the phrase 'Salting the Earth' came into effect. Your destroy enough resources to stop that nation being viable for 1,000 years plus.

There was IIRC, consideration to reduce Germany to a purely agrciutlure nation after the end of WW2, which I would put in this category, but fortunately, it was only a 'think tank consideration' and not Government Opinion.

(The Former action destroyed the nation and the ability for that area to support any new major nation, the latter action would have destroyed Germany's ability to be a true nation, but the nation would have continued and in effect its historical identity lost). i.e Can that nation still live there.... or can no one live there?

So, the consequence for Russia I think would be bad - and a change of government would be the only way in the short to medium term to restore their nation to being considered 'civilised' - but depending on the level of the attack, would dictate what the Mililtary and Economic effect would be on Russia as a nation - and the Rest of the World.

In other words, there are three unknowns in trying to work out the outcome.

1) Where you live
2) Reason for the attack
3) Level of the attack


It probably explains why Nations have never used Nuclear weapons in anger since WW2 - the cost of using them, might well exceed the value you get from using them?

Putin may not be sane - but equally, he may want to live? Certain options would mean, one way or the other, life would end for him.

You can anoy alot of the world and live nicely in Sochi - but you use a Nuke, Siberia might be the best you can get.

All of the above is just my 2p !

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Saturday, April 26, 2025 - 05:47 am: Edit

Russia's goal throughout has been to make gains without triggering a major conflict with the West.

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Saturday, April 26, 2025 - 09:28 am: Edit

I suspect that the biggest thing stopping Russia from using atomics against Ukraine is that Moscow is downwind of Kyiv. Indeed, most of Russia's agricultural belt is downwind of targets in Ukraine.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Saturday, April 26, 2025 - 09:56 am: Edit

Russia hasn't used atomics so far because they haven't been forced into a "nothing else to lose" situation. Start cutting their oil production to a serious degree and the idea of a nuclear warning shot becomes possible. No one is going to throw a nuke at Russia because of one nuke in Ukraine.

By MarkSHoyle (Bolo) on Saturday, April 26, 2025 - 10:26 am: Edit

Just nuke Kyiv and game over?

Game just getting started.....
Think the Germans had issues in the 40's,
as they say "You ain't seen nothing yet"....

Speaking Russian in that area would be a certain death sentence, military or not....

By Mike Grafton (Mike_Grafton) on Saturday, April 26, 2025 - 11:36 am: Edit

Sooner or later, IMHO, something bad is going to happen to Putin. ATGM strike on his limo, drone to the face when out for a stroll, fall out a window, whatever...

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Saturday, April 26, 2025 - 11:45 am: Edit

President Trump on Saturday said he thinks Russian President Vladimir Putin may be stringing him along after the latest deadly strikes on Ukraine, as the U.S. seeks to bring an end to the war in Eastern Europe.

“There was no reason for Putin to be shooting missiles into civilian areas, cities and towns, over the last few days,” Trump posted Saturday on Truth Social. “It makes me think that maybe he doesn’t want to stop the war, he’s just tapping me along, and has to be dealt with differently, through ‘Banking’ or ‘Secondary Sanctions?’ Too many people are dying!!!”

By Mike Erickson (Mike_Erickson) on Saturday, April 26, 2025 - 01:18 pm: Edit

Even a blind squirrel eventually finds an acorn.

--Mike

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Saturday, April 26, 2025 - 09:26 pm: Edit

Russian President Putin announces new general to command forces in Ukraine.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Saturday, April 26, 2025 - 09:29 pm: Edit

Canada dispatches elite winter troops to Ukraine.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Saturday, April 26, 2025 - 09:30 pm: Edit

France dispatches air-mobile commando brigade to Ukraine.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Saturday, April 26, 2025 - 09:31 pm: Edit

Link to above news items

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/6eqn_MPrckM

By MarkSHoyle (Bolo) on Sunday, April 27, 2025 - 12:15 am: Edit

Bear is like a PR/Media photo for McDs etc.....
Never seen a pic of a Russian bear that looked anything that fierce....
Shouldn't it be balancing on a ball in a circus....

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Sunday, April 27, 2025 - 01:37 am: Edit

Follow the link to see what the bear does.

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Sunday, April 27, 2025 - 04:57 am: Edit

That moose means business.

By Mike Erickson (Mike_Erickson) on Sunday, April 27, 2025 - 06:36 am: Edit

The Indonesia one looks like a pretty good Gorn!

--Mike

(Actually a komodo dragon.)

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Sunday, April 27, 2025 - 07:38 am: Edit

The link has a tiger for India, eagle for the US, jaguar for Brazil, fox for Tunisian, Snow Leopard for Afghanistan, Panda for China, and so forth.

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Sunday, April 27, 2025 - 09:47 am: Edit

Defeat in Ukraine would not be a "nothing left to lose" situation.

When defeated in front of Kyiv, Russia responded by withdrawing.

When defeated in Kherson, Russia responded by withdrawing.

When defeated in Kharkiv, Russia responded by withdrawing.

When defeated in Syria, Russia responded by withdrawing.

When defeated in the Sumy region, Russia responded by withdrawing.

When defeated in Kursk, Russia responded by withdrawing and counterattacking.

The idea that "no one" would respond to a single nuke is questionable. If nothing else, at that point Ukraine would have every reason to go on a crash nuclear weapons development program. There is every reason to think they would succeed. They still have nuclear reactors, and they also already have ballistic missiles. Once Ukraine got its nukes, they would have every reason to use them.

So no, using a "single nuke" against Ukraine is not a viable option for Russia.

By Carl-Magnus Carlsson (Hardcore) on Sunday, April 27, 2025 - 10:23 am: Edit

Svc, yes, no-one is going to nuke Russia if Putin nukes Kiev, and he knows that. However it would unite the already united even more (Europe), make the fence sitters finally choose side (against Russia). China would cut all trade for sure, as would India and everyone but NK and Iran. The oil export drop dramatically.
Sanctions would be enforced hard by almost all countries.