Ryan, very true.

U.S. Human Intelligence on Communist Nations has always been deficient, sadly, sometimes the best data came from funeral photos of who showed up to mourn the passing of a politbureau member.

At least they could count noses.

By Horganbwc on Sunday, October 26, 2025 - 02:36 am: Edit

Authentication Error

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Monday, October 27, 2025 - 03:07 pm: Edit

Article posted by Mainstream Media Site:

Russian troops cut off by flooding after Ukraine hits Belgorod dam
Drone strike breaches structure, causing reservoir water to surge into trenches of invading army

27 October 2025 6:18pm GMT
Ukraine has carried out a drone strike on Belgorod dam that led to flooding in the southern Russian region and cut off several Moscow units...

Several articles, one mentioning high MARS missile strike on the dam, and there is video showing a large hole blown in, what appears to be a water gate (a relief water Chanel used to reduce dangerous water levels that might over top the dam.)

This is said to be Ukraine’s first strike against a dam in Russian territory.

Water level has dropped one meter, down to the level of damage caused by the drone strike.

The article goes on to say that one thousand citizens have been evacuated, as well as several Russian military units have been cut off from logistical support by the flooding.

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Monday, October 27, 2025 - 06:34 pm: Edit

Yes, this is highly significant, above all because the use of HIMARS implies that the US gave Ukraine to use US weaponry to hit water-related infrastructrue in Russia, albeit with a military purpose.

By MarkSHoyle (Bolo) on Monday, October 27, 2025 - 07:05 pm: Edit

Caught a glimpse of a meme the other day:

"Chinese officials staring as a B-2 Stealth bomber flies toward the 3 Gorges Dam"

Several frames, one of the dam, another of people staring into the sky, finally a B-2 center of the last frame....

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Tuesday, October 28, 2025 - 01:35 pm: Edit

Looks like the Gaza ceasefire is over:

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel ordered the military to conduct strikes in Gaza on Tuesday as the government accused Hamas of violating the cease-fire by firing on Israeli forces and declining to return the bodies of deceased hostages.

The decision “to immediately carry out forceful strikes in the Gaza Strip" was announced in a statement by Mr. Netanyahu’s office on Tuesday night.

“Hamas have violated the framework by not returning hostages and attacking our forces,” said David Mencer, a spokesman for Mr. Netanyahu, on Tuesday night.

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Tuesday, October 28, 2025 - 03:16 pm: Edit

Example of a real world “Swarm Attack”:


Ukraine Waited for Russian UAV Factory to Reach Full Output–Then ERASED Them All

Witness Ukraine Waited for Russian UAV Factory to Reach Full Output—Then ERASED Them All on October 15, 2025, with 34 RAM-2X drones mimicking birds to bypass Nebo-M and Pantsir-S1 defenses. Banshee Jet decoys simulate Su-27 jets, blinding 96L6E radar, while Night Owl AI navigates fog to strike Valuyki’s Shahed factory. Precise 15-pound shaped charges obliterate 70% of Russia’s drone production. Exclusive footage and sharp analysis reveal how $2M drones cripple $500M facility, grounding Donetsk reconnaissance. This episode showcases audacious swarm warfare.

Video of the actual attack, recorded by a reconnaissance drone, is posted on you tube.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Tuesday, October 28, 2025 - 03:20 pm: Edit

Israel says it has iron clad proof that Hamas knows very well where the 13 missing bodies are located. Given Israeli intelligence infiltration of every Arab government and movement this is very likely to be all too true.

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Tuesday, October 28, 2025 - 05:03 pm: Edit

The Banshee story makes a great story, but I'm far from clear I can trust the channel that posted the video Jeff mentions. How would that channel know what the Russian commander was feeling at a particular moment, or what went over his command channel?

The video does not cite its sources.

That said, I DO trust the channels related to Ukraine's military. Their information is at times in English, at times in Ukrainian, and at times both. I believe those channels in general make best efforts to be accurate.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Tuesday, October 28, 2025 - 09:34 pm: Edit

The Russians have a long history of not telling the truth. Ukraine is a new outfit with no reputation and is given the benefit of the doubt, which at times they haven't earned. Ukraine is almost as corrupt as Russia.

By Carl-Magnus Carlsson (Hardcore) on Wednesday, October 29, 2025 - 03:22 am: Edit

SVC, there is truth in that Israeli intelligence have a reputation for being effective, (just think of how they struck at Hizbollah!) but recall they totally missed the 7th october.

Then, also, is AI. Or the risk of over reliance of mindless systems with flaws and biases to sort and present information to decision makers.
I recall the fruitless hunt for the Iraqi WMDs, That was BEFORE the advent of AI tools.
Their use pose a real risk for even bigger mistakes in these times.

Then of course any such claims by the Israeli has a political purpose. Ai is new but politics is as old as man, probably.

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Wednesday, October 29, 2025 - 09:31 am: Edit

I am not sure what Hamas can gain from breaking the 'cease fire' - the one and only trump card they held was the living hostages.

With them all returned, they hold nothing.

What is to stop Israel bulldozing the rest of Gaza?

So why would they break it?

As per some comments from Turkey this morning - Israel has far more to gain from breaking it?

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Wednesday, October 29, 2025 - 10:40 am: Edit

Hamas still has deceased hostages remains, and are not being particularly cooperative in returning those to Israel or to the families.

Seems like a very weak hand to play, but Hamas seems to be trying to parlay it in some sort of extortion.

Anyone’s guess, but it could be a desperation play by what is left of Hamas leadership to show that they are relevant and participating in dialogue with Israel.

Either that, or there is a faction inside of whats left of Hamas that wants Israel to eliminate the competition, and provoking Israel is a tried and true method that works.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Wednesday, October 29, 2025 - 12:13 pm: Edit

Hamas is the scorpion who died after killing the frog ferrying him across the river. Stupidity, perfidity, and just plain meaness is their nature. They cannot help themselves, don’t want to, and don’t try to.

Israel gains nothing from the collapse of the ceasefire, other than a continued bloody war they never wanted. Bulldozing Gaza and forcing the deportation of the people there would not give them peace.

The only thing Israelis want is return of the murdered Israelis, and end to self-radicalization, and Hamas being out of existence. It would have made more sense to pass a law allowing for the death penalty and start executing Hamas murderers, but they didn’t do that.

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Wednesday, October 29, 2025 - 05:14 pm: Edit

SVC, from a verifiability standpoint, Ukraine's military channels tend to back up their claims with videos. There are people who can distinguish fakes from real. I haven't heard any claims of fake Ukraine-sourced videos from that community.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Wednesday, October 29, 2025 - 05:23 pm: Edit

I haven't either, but not all reports have videos, and videos can be misleading.

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Wednesday, October 29, 2025 - 06:32 pm: Edit

But if they were faking a significant number of videos, the probability that no one would have noticed is low. Especially since Russia would obviously want to discover any fabrications and report them far and wide.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Wednesday, October 29, 2025 - 07:18 pm: Edit

Videos dont have to be fake to be misleading. You can take a picture from different angles, paint new numbers on the same tank, pile different stuff next to it, set fire to it, and so forth.

I trust Ukraine a lot more than i trust Russia, butin war the first casualty is truth.

By Carl-Magnus Carlsson (Hardcore) on Wednesday, October 29, 2025 - 07:30 pm: Edit

William, there are hundreds of attacks along the frontlines everyday. Enough fotage is produced for many hours of videos. Of course each side from that selects and shows only their successes. Much easier than making fake videos.
Fake videos is more of a domestic political propaganda thing on social media (and even that is rare. Easier to fake fotos than video, even these days). At least to my limited knowledge.
Just my 2 c

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Friday, October 31, 2025 - 10:33 am: Edit

As has been widely reported, President Trump has issued a statement (via social media) regarding renewed nuclear weapons testing by the U.S.:

The United States has more Nuclear Weapons than any other country. This was accomplished, including a complete update and renovation of existing weapons, during my First Term in office. Because of the tremendous destructive power, I HATED to do it, but had no choice! Russia is second, and China is a distant third, but will be even within 5 years. Because of other countries testing programs, I have instructed the Department of War to start testing our Nuclear Weapons on an equal basis. That process will begin immediately. Thank you for your attention to this matter! PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP

There are a few...issues with this statement. In order:

1. The United States does not have more nuclear weapons than any other country. Russia has over 5,500 of them, the U.S. has a bit more than 5,000.

2. The latest update and renovation of existing weapons was conducted on the orders of, and largely during the term of, President Obama.

3. China's nuclear stockpile is growing, but it's estimated it will be up to only 1,000 warheads by 2030. That's a scary amount, but it's not close to "even" with the U.S.

4. There is no country, other than North Korea, that has tested nuclear warheads in the last 30 years. While it could have been done in secret, this is not likely, because it's not easy to hide and because it's not a smart choice. Testing nuclear warheads risks re-igniting the arms race, which nobody particularly wants, and is also unnecessary, because nations can learn what they need to learn with lab tests and computer simulations.

5. It is possible that the President is actually referring to testing the missiles that deliver nuclear warheads. If so, the U.S. is already doing regular tests of that sort, as are China and Russia.

6. The Department of DefenseWar does not manage (including conduct of any testing) the nation's nuclear stockpile. The Department of Energy does.

By Robert Russell Lender (Rusman) on Friday, October 31, 2025 - 11:18 am: Edit

Trump spouts off the cuff all the time. I wouldn't let minor inaccuracies get under your skin.

By Ted Fay (Catwhoeatsphoto) on Friday, October 31, 2025 - 01:37 pm: Edit

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Quote:

3. China's nuclear stockpile is growing, but it's estimated it will be up to only 1,000 warheads by 2030. That's a scary amount, but it's not close to "even" with the U.S.

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By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Friday, October 31, 2025 - 03:45 pm: Edit

While I am more than aware that Pres. Trump is given to "spout off the cuff" or "run his mouth off", I prefer a world wherein my President hews a tad closer to the facts of the matter if/when ordering a resumption of nuclear testing.

By Jeff Anderson (Jga) on Friday, October 31, 2025 - 03:47 pm: Edit

Jessica? I could be wrong, but I do recall that a few years ago, Pakistan and India did a series of back-and-forth "Underground Nuclear Tests" as part of some saber rattling that they do from time to time.

Had a whole lot of people VERY nervous.

By A David Merritt (Adm) on Friday, October 31, 2025 - 04:28 pm: Edit

Both India, and Pakistan set off five nuclear weapons in 1998. Which was 27 years ago.