The thing about the U.S.S. Belknap is that there was no missile, no explosives involved.

It happened as a collision with an aircraft carrier, friction did the rest.

The aluminum scraping against 80,000+ tons of steel warship was enough to ignite the superstructure.

The evidence seems to suggest that using anything but steel for warship construction is a bad idea.

By Robert Russell Lender (Rusman) on Saturday, November 08, 2025 - 12:47 pm: Edit

Saw this yesterday on Reddit and fell in love with the pic taken from it.

https://www.reddit.com/r/aviation/comments/1oquy5v/what_it_looks_like_to_stand_under_an_f18_super/

Scroll down just a little bit to the absolutely awesome photograph of the Blue Angel plane. I've made it my new laptop computer wallpaper.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Tuesday, November 11, 2025 - 03:48 pm: Edit

Logistics: Seizing Iranian Arms Shipment for Houthis
November 11, 2025: Last July the Yemeni National Resistance Forces/NRF, led by Yemeni General Tareq Saleh, was responsible for the seizure of more than 750 tons of munitions and military equipment meant for the Iran-backed Houthi rebels. The captured items included several hundred modern cruise, anti-ship, and anti-aircraft missiles, along with warheads, seekers, and other items. There were also hundreds of drone engines, air defense radar systems, and communications equipment. Accompanying them were assembly and operating documents and instruction manuals written in Farsi, the Iranian language. These revealed that weapons and equipment were accompanying the weapons, were manufactured by a firm that supplied the Iranian Ministry of Defense. This firm, and Iran in general, are currently sanctioned by the United States.
Last year the Houthi Shia rebels in Yemen, armed by decades of smuggled Iranian weapons shipments, sought to block commercial shipping from entering the Red Sea by firing rockets and missiles at ships, as well as sending out speed boats carrying explosives or armed men who tried to attack or board commercial ships and force the crew, at gunpoint, to move the ship to a pirate-friendly port in nearby Somalia. The threats begin at the entrance to the Red Sea, which passes through the 26 kilometer wide and 50 kilometer long Bab-el-Mandeb strait. The rebels do not control any territory near these narrow straits. Rebel controlled territory is over a hundred kilometers north of the straits. The Houthi rebels were launching rockets and guided missiles at commercial ships that got close enough to the shore to hit. Most ships remained out of range and the rebels sometimes sent out speed boats carrying armed men to board and take control of cargo ships. Some boats carried explosives, and the operator left the boat as
The Americans imposed economic sanctions on the Shia rebels, who consider themselves the true government of Yemen. These sanctions make it more difficult and sometimes impossible for the Yemen rebels to use any money they have in foreign banks. Holding a lot of cash inside Yemen is dangerous and prevents the rebels from moving that money around to buy things they need.
The United States also sent ships equipped with electronic warfare equipment to disable the communications of Iranian ships that were supplying the Yemen Shia rebels with target information.
The United States, Britain, Canada, Bahrain, France, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Seychelles, and Spain offered to send warships to protect commercial shipping using the Red Sea to reach the Suez Canal and ports in the Mediterranean Sea and beyond. Most of these nations decided not to send warships and left it to the Americans and a few other nations to deal with the situation. These nations believed it was easier to let commercial shipping use the longer and more time consuming route around the southern tip of Africa.
Egypt, which operates the Suez Canal and earns $10 billion a year in transit fees, is offering to provide repairs for any commercial ship damaged by the Yemen Shia rebel attacks. This is to encourage shipping firms to use the Canal, and pay its fees to Egypt, rather than taking the more expensive long way around southern Africa. Egypt and Iran are enemies and reducing Suez Canal income is a win for Iran, which supported the Yemen rebels for more than a decade to make that success possible.
The foreign warships operating against the Houthis include an American aircraft carrier, whose aircraft joined land based aircraft from Persian Gulf bases to attack Yemen Shia rebel forces and munitions, especially missiles used against commercial shipping. Many of the foreign warships in the Red Sea have defensive weapons that can intercept Shia rebel missiles. All these efforts have been sufficient to greatly reduce but not eliminate the attacks by the Yemen rebels on Red Sea shipping.
The current security efforts in the Red Sea are a continuation of anti-piracy efforts that began in 2008 and have continued since then, mainly near the African or Somali coast but close enough to deal with threats on the Arabian Peninsula or Yemen side of the Red Sea route to the Suez Canal. Somali pirates were the main threat twenty years ago, but they were eventually eliminated with help from Western and other countries, such as China, that send a lot of their seaborne trade through the Red Sea.

FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Tuesday, November 11, 2025 - 03:48 pm: Edit

Warplanes: Ukraine Seeking Air Superiority
November 11, 2025: Currently Ukraine has 261 aircraft. Thirty four percent are jet fighters including twelve F-16s. Eventually they will have more than sixty F-16s but it takes time to train pilots and maintainers and prepare airbases for them to operate from.
The F-16s have some unique assignments in Ukraine. Because the air defenses on both sides are so robust, no one has air superiority and keep their aircraft out of range of enemy air defense systems. The F-16s are most useful as another air defense weapon to destroy Russian cruise missile attacks. One F-16 destroyed six of these missiles in one sortie during December 2024, which might make its pilot an ace depending on the definition of ace which historically meant downing five fighter aircraft.
The F-16s have proved invaluable as a last line of defense against cruise missiles that got past the air defenses. The Russian style of air control has jet fighters operating under the orders of ground controllers. Ukraine uses the more flexible Western method, where pilots are briefed before takeoff on where to go and what to attack. After that it’s the pilot’s choice when and how he carries out these attacks.
Ukrainian pilots found the F-16s easier to operate than the Russian-designed aircraft they previously used. The F-16s are more reliable and, as they are equipped with more of the NATO standard aircraft electronics, pilots find they can detect and destroy targets much more quickly. This ability to operate autonomously means that Russian jamming efforts have little impact.
Additional Ukraine Airforce/UAF aircraft received from NATO include French Mirage 2000 fighters. These aircraft are equipped with modern radars and electronic warfare systems and have proved very effective in detecting and destroying incoming Russian missiles and large attack drones.
Ukraine still operates Russian-made aircraft Ukraine obtained before hostilities with Russia began in 2014, These aircraft include several dozen MiG-29s, SU-27s, and Su-25 ground attack aircraft.
Once more the war in Ukraine revealed major changes in how wars are fought, this time in the air. The extensive use of drones is more effective than manned aircraft. With drones you can afford to take heavy losses to reach a target. F-16s cost about $50 million each. The average long-range drone cost is about a thousand dollars. Fifty thousand drones can inflict a lot more damage than an F-16 and don’t put pilots at risk.
Air defense systems have become cheaper, more numerous and more effective. Against drones the air defenses are usually using a missile costing from a few hundred thousand dollars to a few million to take down one drone that cost, at most, a few thousand dollars to build. Both Ukraine and Russia are developing drones that intercept and destroy other drones. If the war in Ukraine has demonstrated one thing, it’s that the widespread use of inexpensive drones have changed air ground and naval warfare.


FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Tuesday, November 11, 2025 - 03:49 pm: Edit

Infantry: Russian Teenagers Prepare for War
November 10, 2025: In northwestern Russia, a Murmansk lyceum/high school hired former disabled soldiers who had served in Ukraine. The soldiers taught the students about the many types of drones and how to care for and operate these weapons. The students were also shown videos and directed to view TV shows that presented more relevant Ukraine war videos. A state controlled TV channel regularly shows videos about the Ukraine war. Naturally these videos ignore the enormous casualties Russian forces have taken. Instead videos show practical aspects of how the war is fought. There are an increasing number of videos on drone warfare.
Most civilians know what really goes on in Ukraine. Wounded or disabled Ukraine war veterans are constantly returning home and telling their friends and neighbors about the war. The high school students hear about this. While some are discouraged about eventually going to Ukraine, others are willing to accept the challenge, and large signing bonuses being offered. Large sums, over $20,000 per new soldier, used to be paid. But the state has run out of money and current high school students will have to decode if much lower signing bonuses are worth the risks. Vladimir Putin says Russia will keep fighting until Ukraine is conquered. Only time will tell how that will work out.
Russia has established thirteen VOIN/Fighter centers. VOIN is used to expose teenagers to military life by giving them military uniforms, regular military orientation and some training to prepare them for joining the military via conscription or volunteering. The VOIN training for teenagers also includes a lot of education and indoctrination about the importance of patriotism and preparing to defend Russia. This is one of the reasons Russia never refers to their invasion of Ukraine as an invasion. According to the government, the fighting in Ukraine is a Russian internal matter to suppress separatist activity by some people in southern Russia that call themselves Ukrainians and are fighting to create an independent country called Ukraine.
Since 2022, VOIN centers also trained Russian army reservists headed for Ukraine. Recently, the number of reservists called up has overwhelmed the VOIN system and reservists are sent to Ukraine without any preparation. Losses are higher for these reservists.
The Russian government complains that the Ukrainians, which it calls separatists, have been a problem for a long time but that now they have massive military support from NATO countries. This fits the government claim that the NATO defensive alliance against Russian aggression is a Western conspiracy to surround and subjugate Russia. For centuries Ukrainians have been fighting Russian efforts to turn them into Russians. When the Soviet Union fell apart in 1991, Ukraine finally became independent. Russia wants Ukraine back as part of Russia.
Russia also revealed a list of several former parts of the ex-Soviet Union, who are now neighboring countries, that they want to make part of Russia. Some of those neighbors are NATO members. Ukraine wants to join NATO, and NATO agrees, but only after the Russian invaders have been expelled. So far, the Ukrainian resistance has killed or disabled over a million Russian soldiers and destroyed most modern Russian tanks. In response Russia took thousands of 1960s-era T-62 tanks out of storage and sent them to Ukraine to provide more targets for Ukrainian tanks and anti-tank weapons. A growing number of the Ukrainian tanks are Western models which have demonstrated a clear superiority over any Russian tank they encounter.
Defeats and losses in Ukraine are downplayed by Russian media. The government explains, but cannot prove, that the fighting is taking longer because of NATO support that this is supposed to include the NATO troops doing a lot of the fighting. No captured NATO soldiers have been revealed because there aren’t any.
Many Russians, including the teenagers and especially Russians who have served in Ukraine, are dubious about their government’s claims about a purported NATO plot to conquer Russia. There are older Russians who remember why the Soviet Union fell apart. It wasn’t because of NATO aggression; it was because most citizens of the Soviet Union saw that the Soviet Union was a failed dictatorship that was not helping the people of Russia. That resulted in the collapse of the Soviet Union, something the Soviets could not suppress with persuasion, threats or the use of armed force. The people had made up their minds and the security forces refused to fight Russians over this. The Soviet Union lost half its population to newly formed nations, including Ukraine, which was one of most prosperous regions of the Union and few Ukrainians wanted to remain under Russian domination. This is why a lot of the VOIN training for teenagers is ideological, stressing the importance of preserving Mother Russia above all else.
Another function of VOIN is to train army reservists in combat techniques before they are activated. Most of these reservists will be called up to fight in Ukraine and VOIN concentrates on that because the VOIN training is likely all that they’ll ever get. Most of these men know what is going on in Ukraine and are not enthusiastic about going there and dying. For Russian troops in Ukraine, morale has been low for some time and that is visible in the reluctance for Russian attacks to move forward with much determination. Even in the defense, Russian troops are more interested in retreating to Russia than in halting the growing number of Ukrainian attacks. There have been growing incidences of Russian troops deliberately seeking an opportunity to surrender to the Ukrainians. Since the invasion began in early 2022, Ukraine has lost about a third as many troops as Russia. In the last year, Ukraine has been losing proportionately less than before because Ukrainian morale and combat ability has improved, and the Russians have suffered because of that.
VOIN centers are important because historically, newly conscripted Russians received nothing like the months of basic and advanced training Western recruits received. The results were more effective Western soldiers and Russian leaders agree Russia should provide the same training and increase the proportion of volunteer, or contract, veterans to the military, especially the army. It was too expensive, as was extensive training for recruits. Typically, new recruits get a week or so of orientation, as in how to wear the uniform and recognize different ranks and how to respond to them. The recruits are quickly sent off to a unit, where they are supposed to receive “on the job” training but rarely do. Traditionally this was even done in wartime when civilians suddenly in uniform had to cope, and survive, as best they could.
In general, VOIN is an effort to deal with the lack of training new recruits receive and the lack of training reservists, many of them are veterans of active service. Russia wants and needs to replace their poorly trained and easily killed troops with ones that have had some training to avoid or reduce that problem with some training these troops had never received before. Whether they actually do is subject to traditional Russian corruption and official Potemkin Village games by superior officers.
The VOIN training for teenagers is an enhanced version of the familiarization training many, but not all, high school boys have received. Russia wants to make VOIN available everywhere without making it too expensive to maintain everywhere. That will take a considerable effort which Russia probably can’t afford.
FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Tuesday, November 11, 2025 - 03:50 pm: Edit

Air Weapons: Ukrainian AI Drones Revolutionize Combat
November 10, 2025: The latest innovation in drone warfare if the Ukrainian use of AI/Artificial Intelligence for drone targeting systems. The AI drone contains a targeting system that finds targets. The AI drone operator confirms which targets are real and once a target is confirmed the AI targeting system needs no further communication with anyone. It is resistant to all forms of jamming.
Modern warfare has been radically changed by the introduction of First Person View/FPV drones. These drones are an omnipresent aerial threat to armored vehicles and infantry on foot. Each FPV drone costs less than a thousand dollars. Operators use the video camera on the drone to see what is below and find targets. Armed FPV operators are several kilometers away to decide when their FPV drones will drop explosives on an armored vehicle, which has thinner armor on top, or infantry in the open or in trenches. To do so, the drone operators often operate in pairs, with one flying behind the other and concentrating on the big picture while seeking a likely target. When such a target is found by the reconnaissance drone, the armed drone is directed to the target. The two FPV drone operators are usually in the same room or tent and can take control of new drones, which are lined up and brought outside for launch when needed. The reconnaissance drones are often unarmed so they can spend more time in the air to seek a target.
The Ukrainians developed the FPV drone in 2022, when only a few FPV drone attacks were recorded. The Ukrainian Army was the first to appreciate the potential of FPV drones. By the summer of 2023, the Russian Army also began to use FPV drones in greater numbers. Since then, the number of FPV drone attacks has grown exponentially on both sides. Only twelve percent of those attacks led to the destruction of the target, which could be a vehicle or group of infantry or even a sniper who was firing through a window from inside a building. In this case, the armed FPV drone would fly through the window and explode in the room the sniper was in. The only defense from this was having a nearby open door the sniper could run to or dive through as the FPV drone approached. Sometimes that isn’t possible because the armed FPV drone is coming down from above the window and then in. You don’t see those coming until it’s too late.
Nearly five million drones are being built this year. The total for 2024 was 1.5 million drones. There have been problems. Chinese component producers are having a hard time keeping up, and, last year, to assist the Russians, China halted sending drone components to Ukraine. Suppliers in Europe, the United States, and elsewhere were quickly found. At least 70 percent of Ukrainian drones are built entirely in Ukraine, and the rest from imported parts or whole assemblies. Some Ukrainian firms have improvised by using plywood and similar materials for their drones. For the FPV First Person View drones, cheaper is better if the drone can hit its first and only target. Most Ukrainian drones are FPV models, which are considered a form of ammunition.
Both sides now use the FPV drones, but there are substantial differences in how the FPV drones are put to work in combat. The Ukrainians seek out high-value targets like armored vehicles, electronic warfare equipment, anti-aircraft systems, and storage sites for munitions or other supplies. Russian trucks carrying supplies are another prime target.
FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Tuesday, November 11, 2025 - 03:51 pm: Edit

Attrition: Russian Barbarism in Ukraine
November 9, 2025: Russian leaders frequently boast that Russia is different from the West and operates differently. Some of the differences include barbaric treatment of Russian soldiers by their officers, and brutal conduct by Russian soldiers when dealing with enemy prisoners or civilians going about their business. So far there have been over a hundred cases of Russian officers killing their own troops for refusing to fight. Early in the Russian government explicitly condoned and encouraged these punishments. Russian leaders also ignore Ukrainian or NATO complaints about Russian mistreatment and murder of Ukrainian civilians. Russian leaders regard this atrocious behavior as an example of how Russia is different from the decadent West and will eventually triumph because Russia is superior to the decadent West.
Meanwhile Russian bad behavior continues. For example, earlier this year soldiers of the Russian 61st Naval Infantry Brigade committed atrocities by attacking civilians with drones to terrorize people in southern Ukraine. The victims were often going about their daily routine but, if they were out in the open, they were targets for these frequent drone attacks. The attacks also included ambulances, which were supposed to have some immunity from attack. The Russians ignored that and killed ambulance drivers, medics, and passengers. Before this terrorism ended over 200 civilians were killed and hundreds more wounded.
Since 2023, a year after the invasion, Russian soldiers were accused of numerous atrocities and war crimes in Ukraine. Reports via the Russian internet report numerous Russian war crimes against civilians in Ukraine. Many Russian commentators admit that the war in Ukraine is lost and want Putin held accountable for the heavy cost in men, money and prestige. Ukraine will be demanding prosecutions for war crimes and compensation from Russia for damages and numerous atrocities.
The first major war in Europe since 1945 ends with murmurs and recriminations over how it happened and if it could happen again. Last year Ukraine declared it was willing to end the war, if they got back all the Ukrainian territory, including Crimea, that Russia has occupied since 2014. Putin was unwilling to do this. Putin sees ending the war and returning stolen territories as proof that Putin’s War was all for nothing and cost Russia so much. Putin believes admitting defeat would end his quarter century in power. This would open Putin to prosecution. He cannot flee the country because foreign nations indicted him for war crimes many years ago.
Russia also sought to silence their own people. It was declared illegal to spread certain misinformation. There were a few arrests, but that was also unpopular, and the prison system could not handle many Russians convicted of thought crimes.
Continued Russian aggression in Ukraine, including the shooting down of an airliner in 2014, led to Russia threatening to sue in court, but the Russians hesitated because they realized they might find themselves in court for war crimes, which would have an impact on their lawsuit.
In late 2022 Ukraine estimated that the Russian attacks on the economy would require a reconstruction budget of over $350 billion. As the destruction continued in 2023, reconstruction costs increased as well. That has led to serious proposals to use $350 billion in Russian assets in the West that have been frozen, as in kept from Russian control for the duration of the war, for reconstruction of Ukraine. Russia is also accused of more conventional war crimes committed in Ukraine against civilians. Russia is unmoved by the Western threats and accusations and determined to make Ukraine and the West suffer for its role in defeating Russian efforts to conquer Ukraine. The Russian government describes their attack on Ukraine as an effort to defend Russia from NATO aggression. According to Russia their tactics are justified as part of its defensive measures.
Last year the Ukrainian government complained to the ICC/International Criminal Court about the mass Russian kidnappings of children and adults. That was one of many atrocities Russia was accused of. In Ukraine Russia reacted to unexpected setbacks by reverting to their traditional total war tactics. This included lots of attacks on civilian infrastructure and civilians in general. This behavior was particularly brutal in Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory where civilians would not cooperate with Russian demands that they accept Russian rule peacefully. That led to violent reprisals against civilians, including kidnapping children and sending them to Russia. About 14,000 Ukrainian children have disappeared into Russia and many of the younger ones have been adopted by Russian couples to be raised as Russians. As evidence of the atrocities piled up, often in the form of discovering mass graves of civilians executed by the Russians when the Ukrainians regained Russian occupied territory, the ICC indicted Russian leader Vladimir Putin for war crimes and issued a warrant for his arrest. Putin is not likely to visit any country that honors ICC warrants. Putin may never be arrested, but the ICC warrant lasts forever since there is no statute of limitations on capital crimes. As a result of this sort of bad behavior, Ukrainian soldiers took to referring to their enemy as Orcs.
Putin generally ignores the ICC, even when it indicts him and publicizes what Putin is accused of. Putin knows the history of past ICC indictments and inability to prosecute most of those indicted. This sort of thing reached its peak in 2013 when the ICC faced a mutiny by the 32 African nations that signed the treaty recognizing the power of the ICC to indict and prosecute people in member states of war crimes. By 2013 122 nations had signed the treaty that allowed the ICC to prosecute its citizens. The ICC indicts and prosecutes if it determines that such crimes have been committed and the national government will not or cannot prosecute. The AU/African Union agreed to support continued membership of African nations in the ICC but only if heads of state are exempt from prosecution. Technically the AU was calling for such prosecutions to be suspended while the accused was in office. This would mean the accused could travel abroad without fear of arrest. At the time, only the heads-of-state of Sudan and Kenya
For centuries Ukraine has suffered periods of brutal occupation by invaders. The most frequent brutal occupier has been Russia, which has played the homicidal villain several times in the last century. The most infamous Russian occupation incident was in the use of famine during 1932 and 1933 to suppress Ukrainian opposition to Russian rule, especially the new Russian dogma of communism, which prohibited private farms and expected all farmers to work for state-owned collective farms. This was resisted by many farmers throughout Russia but the opposition was most stubborn in Ukraine, where about 20 percent of the Soviet Union population lived. Ukrainian farmers were the most productive in Russia and produced most of the exportable wheat. Ukrainian resistance produced a horrific response, the seizure of nearly all the wheat crops in the areas of most resistance. This lasted two years and killed nearly four million Ukrainian, about an eighth of the population in what Ukrainians called the Holodomor/Great Famin
Russia denied the Holodomor ever happened and many Western nations, and their mass media, went along with that. One exception was Britain, where one British reporter risked his life by going to Ukraine and obtaining proof of the Holodomor. The Russian government kept denying the famine ever happened until 1983, when a more open communist government admitted that many communist crimes were true. This made an impression on Russians because they realized more of the victims of prison camps/Gulags and communist terror in general were Russians. As a result, during the 0ccupations of Crimea and parts of Donbas in 2014 the Russians tried to win the support of locals.
That lowered the civilian death toll but did not turn most of the occupied population into loyal citizens of Russia. By 2020 most Ukrainians in the occupied territories wanted out. The most desperate moved to Russia, many others wanted to get to Ukraine and others sought to go anywhere but Ukraine and Russia.
The Holodomor and many other past incidents of Russian brutality led to Russian troops being ordered to not attack civilians during the 2022 invasion. That failed to cause civilians to be any more receptive to the Russian presence and, within a month troops were told they could loot and not tolerate any resistance from civilians. Russia denied that civilians were being killed or that widespread looting was taking place. Cell phone cameras carried by most Ukrainians made that disinformation difficult to sustain. Nor were the heavy casualties inflicted on the Russian forces who believed they would easily defeat the Ukrainians and occupy the capital, Kyiv, within two weeks. After a month of this Russian troops around Kyiv were ordered to withdraw to Russia and try to conceal evidence of mass murder before they left. This produced some mass graves but many bodies were left in plain view and many surviving civilians had video evidence of who did what. Russia again denied it, insisting these civilians were killed

FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Tuesday, November 11, 2025 - 03:51 pm: Edit

Air Weapons: America the Droneless
November 9, 2025: Until 2014 there were no American Ukraine-style military combat drones. But in that year, as part of the U.S. military support of Ukraine, American companies began manufacturing drones based on Ukrainian designs. Skydio, a US company, ships more than 100,000 autonomous, military, consumer and commercial drones a year, making it a significant player in the US market.
The Army has been trying, with some success, to make training to use FPV/First Person View drones a standard part of soldier training this year. In 2026 all units that can use drones will be able to get them through the army supply channel. Since 2022, soldiers and units have been informally obtaining drones so they can learn how to use them. This include live fire exercises where troops use drones in simulated combat operations, including finding hidden targets and destroying them with FPV drones. In this respect, the War Department is catching up.
Meanwhile Ukraine will produce over 2.5 million drones this year. In 2024 1.5 million were manufactured in Ukraine. Ukraine has about 30 secret sites where drones are made. In addition there are hundreds of amateurs who manufacture them for family members in the military or to support local men who are off fighting the Russians. Late last year China stopped selling drone components to Ukraine. This was done to assist their ally Russia. The Ukrainian s quickly found other sources in Europe and the United States. These firms will increase their production and this will do long term damage to Chinese and Russian component and drone manufacturers.
The army marines and SOCOM/Special Operations Command have obtained drones for training and are getting advice from Ukrainians who have and in some cases are still using drones in combat. This year the army established an FPV operators course. In addition there is the three week long Advanced Lethality Course that teaches ways to increase FPV drone operating skills as well as how to use a 3-D printer to manufacture drone components in the combat zone. This is an extension of a process that has been in use for decades where 3-D printers and similar devices are used to make needed components for weapons and equipment.
FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Tuesday, November 11, 2025 - 03:52 pm: Edit

Information Warfare: Shrinking Russian Soviet Influence
November 8, 2025: Russian leader Vladimir Putin believes it was a mistake to break up the Soviet Union in 1991 and many Russians agree with him. The fourteen new nations created or revived when the Soviet Union was dissolved believe otherwise. Opinion surveys and migration patterns indicate a mixed attitude towards the old Russian Empire. The big problem is that half the people in the old empire were not Slavs, although ethnic Russians were the majority among the half that was Slavic. Despite centuries of living in the same country, be it czarist Russia or the Soviet Union, all these ethnic groups never developed much affection or tolerance for each other. Most ethnic Russians living in non-Slav parts of the Empire, especially Central Asia and the Caucasus returned to Russia after 1991.
Most of those who stayed in non-Russian areas did so for economic reasons. That was also why non-Russians stayed in Russia, because what is now Russia is where the most economic opportunities always were. The wealthier and better educated population was a major reason Russia conquered all those other countries. But after 1991, those who never got used to the conquest left and do not want the conquerors back.
There’s also the racism factor. For example about 40 percent of ethnic Russians thought other Slavs like Ukrainians or Byelorussians were capable of becoming Russians if they lived in Russia for a few years and switched their loyalty to Russia. But less than ten percent thought peoples from the Caucasus or Central Asia were capable of that. This xenophobia, or fear of outsiders, is nothing new for Russia. For 70 years the communists sought to eliminate this trait but only managed to suppress it and delude themselves into thinking it was gone. This is a common pattern in communist countries and throughout East Europe.
Xenophobia returned in the 1990s because of the collapse of the communist governments in 1989. It was worst in the Balkans, where civil war erupted as the communist police state collapsed and optimists hoped for a democratic Yugoslavia. While that had long been a cherished goal in the region, it was not to be. Several years of vicious fighting between Serbs, Croats, Slovenes, and Albanians followed and was not halted until 1999. The Caucasus also erupted and unlike Yugoslavia, a NATO peacekeeping force was not available to fix things there. In the Caucasus the usual Russian application of carrot/bribes and stick/violent suppression did not work either. Eventually in 1999 Russia had to reconquer parts of the Caucasus, especially Chechnya, to restore order.
Meanwhile, there has been a major ethnic shift in the Caucasus. Russians, and other people not native to the Caucasus, were driven out of the region by terrorism, corruption, and a bad attitude towards outsiders. It was worst in Chechnya, where Russians comprised 25 percent of the population in 1989, but only 2 percent in the 1990s. The decline was not as great in the rest of the Caucasus but it has been massive, with more than half the Russians who were living in the Caucasus having left by 2011. Actually, this trend began in the 1950s, right after tyrant Josef Stalin died in 1953 and Russia began to trim the power of the secret police. The departure of ethnic Russians from the Caucasus simply accelerated after the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. In Central Asia about half the nearly ten million ethnic Russians living there in 1991 left.
The 2014 Russian operation to take the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine had a bracing effect on the other countries that, until 1991, were part of the ancient Russian Empire. The Crimean operation was the second such land grab Russia had undertaken since 2008. The first was against tiny Georgia. Many of these former Russian subjects feel that the Russians are trying to get their empire back. Ask many Russians that question and most agree that it would be a nice thing. Some Russians are more outspoken and bluntly call for the empire to be reassembled no matter what.
In reaction to this, the forlorn fourteen nations that were part of the Soviet Union until 1991, as well as many East European states that were subject to Russian control from the end of World War II to 1989, became very nervous. Poland was particularly agitated because large parts of Poland were part of the Russian Empire for most of the 18th and 19th centuries. Same situation with Finland, which broke away after World War I and had to fight off a Russian invasion in 1940 and many threats since then to stay independent. That makes the forlorn fourteen the scared sixteen. All of these nations have noted what happened to Georgia and Ukraine with great trepidation and are responding in expected, and unexpected ways.
The fourteen former Russian imperial possessions that regained their independence are the three Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, Belarus, Moldova, Ukraine, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia and the five Central Asian states of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Poland, the Baltic States and Finland escaped from the empire after World War I but only Finland managed to stay free through World War II. The Baltic States were retaken during World War II and Poland remained nominally independent but was occupied by Russian troops and took orders from Russia until 1989.
Poland and the Baltic States managed to join NATO after the Cold War ended and are hoping that the mutual defense terms of the NATO alliance will dissuade Russia. Nevertheless all four, plus Finland, have increased their military readiness this year and are seeking assurances from the West that they will have help against Russia. Many Finns have called for Finland to join NATO, but a large minority has opposed this because of the fear it would anger the Russians. That changed after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. Russia justified the invasion because Ukraine, like most Finns, believed that NATO membership was preferable to trusting Russia to always behave. Even Sweden, never part of the Russian empire and successfully neutral since the early 19th century, joined NATO for protection from an increasingly aggressive Russia.
The Stans of Central Asia have another option, China. The Stans have been very receptive to Chinese diplomatic and economic cooperation. This bothers Russia, but not to the extent that threats are being made, as was the case with the former imperial provinces to the west. The Stans also have a problem with never having been democracies. When the Russians conquered them in the 19th century, the local governments were monarchies or tribes. When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, former Soviet officials held elections and manipulated the vote to get themselves elected president for life. But many people in the Stans want clean government and democracy, as well as continued independence from Russia. China is no help with that because the Chinese prefer dictators.
In the Caucasus Georgia still seeks closer ties with the West. Armenia, because of disputes with Azerbaijan and long-term fear of Turkey, remains a close ally of Russia. Azerbaijan maintains good relations with Russia mainly because Iran claims Azerbaijan was a lost province stolen by Russia in the 19th century.
Russia was quite open about wanting to rebuild the old Tsarist Empire that the communists managed to lose in 1991 when the Soviet Union came apart and half the population of that empire went off and formed 14 new countries. Russia proposed things like customs unions, military cooperation and rebuilding the old Soviet air defense system that used to defend everyone in the empire. There’s been some progress, but most of the 14 nations want nothing to do with Russia.
Meanwhile Russia has to face the fact that when the Soviet Union broke up half the population enthusiastically went to the 14 new countries and most of those people were quite pleased with the demise of the Soviet Union. Thus if you asked all citizens of the former Soviet Union what they thought of the breakup you would find that most had no regrets. That’s because the Soviet Union was basically the Russian Empire cobbled together by the old czarist monarchy over more than two centuries of conquest and expansion.
In the Soviet Union more than half the population felt like conquered people, not part of any union. The Soviet Union dissolved quickly in 1990-91 because over half the population really wanted it to happen and had wanted it for a long time. Moreover many ethnic Russians were tired of supporting a lot of the less affluent conquered people and were fed up with the economic failures of communism. The former Soviet Union citizens who regret the breakup tend to be older people who were disillusioned at how corruption and bad leadership made post-Soviet life less wonderful than was expected.
The younger people are more realistic, never having lived as adults in the Soviet Union and intimately familiar with the fact that freedom isn’t free and democracy is difficult. For younger Russians there are more economic opportunities than under communism. While Russia lost half its population when the Soviet Union broke up, it hung on to most of the valuable natural resources like oil and natural gas. While the post-Soviet government was initially reluctant to increase state supplied pensions, which were low during the Soviet period because there was little to spend it on and the state supplied housing and some health care, pensions did eventually increase. But not as much as the economy grew and the working Russians were obviously doing better than the pensioners who had grown up under communism. In Soviet times that meant there was little economic opportunity and most everyone was equally poor. The old-timers never got used to the post 1991 changes and most would prefer the communists to come back. That that may continue for decades, despite the Russian defeats and losses in Ukraine.
FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Tuesday, November 11, 2025 - 03:53 pm: Edit

Peacekeeping: UN Peacemaking in Peril
November 8, 2025: UN peacekeeping missions have become a thing of that past. There are fewer of them and in a growing number of cases peacekeepers have been replaced by the International Crisis Group. Since 1945 there have been 70 UN peacekeeping missions and currently eleven of them are still active. These include Haiti, Central African Republic, South Sudan, Abyei South Sudan, Rwanda, Kosovo, Cyprus, Lebanon, Israel/Syria, Middle East, India/Pakistan. Over the next decade this list may get smaller, when two or three peacekeeping missions are terminated. It’s difficult to predict which ones because there are so many variables.
There are some other problems. NGO/Non-Government Organizations will sometimes ask, or demand, that the UN or other foreign governments send in peacekeeping troops to protect the NGOs from hostile locals. This had disastrous effects in Somalia during the early 1990s. Some NGOs remained, or came back, to Somalia after the peacekeepers left. These NGOs learned how to cope on their own. They hired local gunmen for protection, as well as cutting deals with the local warlords. But eventually the local Islamic radicals became upset at the alien ideas these Western do-gooders brought with them, and chased all NGOs out.
In eastern Congo, aid workers found themselves the primary target of the local bandits and militias that had created the problems that attracted the foreign aid in the first place. NGOs have learned to raise militias when they want to. But in areas where there are peacekeepers, and the NGOs believe they are not being well served, the NGOs will often simply depart, amid a flurry of press releases, to show their displeasure at the security arrangements, or the political goals of the peacekeepers.
But then came Afghanistan and Iraq, two places where many local leaders thought it served their interests best if there were no NGOs at all. Throughout the world, NGOs are finding that the world has changed. NGOs will never be the same after what's happened during the last decade.
NGOs have formal legal recognition in many countries, and internationally they, as a group, have some standing. NGOs have become a player in international affairs, even though individual NGOs each have their own, independent, outlook on world affairs. But as a group, they are a power to be reckoned with. Unfortunately, there is no leader of all the NGOs you can negotiate with. Each one has to be dealt with separately. Since NGOs also come from many different countries and have members that speak English, peacekeepers can also run into language and cultural customs problems. NGOs have turned out to be another good idea that, well, got complicated in unexpected ways.
The problems NGOs are encountering are not as bad as those crippling peacekeeping missions. International peacemakers are often inclined to address conflicts with little or no reference to established international rules and procedures. The local leadership, whether it be tribal, clan-based or what they experienced back home are often uncooperative with the foreigners. The difference is the peacekeepers come from places that don’t need peacekeepers because local police are sufficient. The peacekeepers are often baffled by how violent and unpredictable the locals are. The UN also sends in diplomats and technical experts to work with the locals to establish peace. That rarely works. Afghanistan is the best example of a failed state that regularly resists any efforts to embrace nationwide peace.
And then there was AFRICOM. In 2008 Africa Command/AFRICOM was established to handle American military operations in Africa. AFRICOM coordinates all American military operations in Africa. The establishment of AFRICOM meant more money for counter-terror operations in Africa, and more long-range projects. One thing most African nations wanted from AFRICOM was military and counter-terrorism trainers. The problem with this was that the people so trained are often then employed as enforcers for the local dictator. Even providing training for peacekeepers can backfire, for those peacekeeping skills can also be used to pacify your own people. This was seen as a problem in Nigeria as well, as long as there is so much corruption in the government and military. But at the same time the U.S. could not ignore the growing cooperation between Boko Haram and al Qaeda type terrorist organizations, especially those in northern Mali, which had become a new sanctuary for al Qaeda. . Boko Haram was becoming part of the terrorist threat to the U.S. and the West. This was a threat that neither peacekeepers nor local security forces could handle. Haiti is another example. For the past century there have been numerous peacekeeping efforts. The most impressive one was when US Marines occupied and pacified Haiti for 19 years, from 1915 to 1934. That was an expensive failure and ever since then Haiti has proved itself ungovernable. Haiti is currently controlled by various criminal gangs who fight among themselves when they aren’t looting, abusing and generally living off the local civilians.

FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Tuesday, November 11, 2025 - 03:54 pm: Edit

Support: Russia Modernizes Military Industries
November 6, 2025: This year Russia is spending six percent of GDP on the military. That was easy compared to finding Russian manufacturers who could build what the military wanted at a price that allowed for obtaining all the items required. Ukrainian forces have halted and pushed back the Russian offensives because the Ukrainian obtained more effective weapons in sufficient quantities. Some 70 percent of these weapons are built in Ukraine. Most of these weapons are designed and developed by Ukrainians who realize the survival of their nation depends on how well these weapons work. Another advantage is access to components from whoever has them. Most come from NATO countries, but China supplies drones and drone components.
In late 2024 China unexpectedly halted delivery of these items to Ukraine. What Ukraine was not receiving went to Russia instead. This was apparently done to improve Russian Chinese relationships. China helps Russia to remain competitive with Ukrainian drone manufacturers and expects Russia to return the favor in the future. Meanwhile, Ukrainian drone manufactures are threatening Chinese dominance of the drone market. The significance of this threat was demonstrated when Ukraine was quickly able to find other suppliers.
Russia is depending on China for more than drones and drone components. Western economic sanctions have done serious and growing damage to the Russian economy and its ability to produce all sorts of weapons. While Ukraine was obtaining most of its weapons and munitions from NATO countries, Ukraine also had its own defense industries that were thriving before the Russian 2022 invasion. Before Russia turned on Ukraine in 2014, Russia was one of many foreign customers for Ukrainian military technology. By 2022, Ukraine and Russia were no longer supporting each other’s defense industries. While Ukraine had NATO nations as a wartime supplier, Russia was on its own and scrambling to cope with numerous economic sanctions imposed after they invaded Ukraine. Many Ukrainian defense industry personnel had detailed knowledge of Russian defense industries and what the key vulnerabilities were. This enabled Ukrainian military intelligence to monitor and attack Russian weapons production.
By late 2023 Ukraine believed that Russia had nearly exhausted its pre-2022 stocks of Kalibr cruise missiles and Iskander tactical ballistic missiles, and lacked the industrial capability to replace those stocks or even produce a significant number under wartime conditions. Ukrainian and NATO industrial intelligence efforts have identified Russian sources for key missile components that must be imported and which suppliers are willing to smuggle items into Russia. Smuggled components are a lot more expensive because the smugglers have expenses and must take into account losses when smuggled shipments are intercepted and seized. Russia also has to seek out and use alternative components to those it simply cannot obtain. This complicates production because the substitute components do not always function as effectively as the original parts.
Ukraine uses its detailed knowledge of Russian military production to target key Russian production facilities for attacks. These are carried out by missiles or larger drones equipped as bombers and, if that is not possible, Ukraine has the option to use operatives inside Russia to attack or sabotage the facility. So far, these efforts have crippled but not halted Russian missile production. The quality of the new Russian missiles is less than before and the Russians accept this because most of the missiles will still work as intended. Russian-made missiles and munitions were always known to be less reliable and an increase in unreliability is considered acceptable to the Russians, though a relief to Ukrainians be targeted. Dud missiles are not harmless. They will land somewhere in Ukraine and some will even explode when they hit the ground. Ukrainians are used to Russian missiles and shells not exploding when they land nearby, realize the things might still go off, and usually call for EOD/Explosive Ordnanc
The shabby construction of recently manufactured Russian missiles reduces the number of effective attacks on Ukrainian targets. NATO and Ukraine are continuing and expanding these efforts to all manner of military items, some of them dual use. This includes truck tires. Russian made truck tires were notorious for their poor quality and unreliability. Before the war, vehicle owners would, if they could, buy foreign tires but that is not an option in wartime. NATO sanctions and Ukrainian sabotage efforts have made tires produced in Russia even more unreliable. This has a disruptive impact on the Russian economy and for Russian troops it’s another reason why supplies or reinforcements don’t arrive on time, if at all.
The Ukraine War has been bad for Russian defense industries and sanctions have put many firms out of business while others are barely surviving. A similar disaster took place after the Soviet Union dissolved in 1991 and military procurement funds nearly disappeared for most of the 1990s. Since the late 1990s surviving Russian defense firms have been trying to rebuild. The Ukraine War seemed, at first, to be a source of more business. There was more activity, but of the malevolent kind that brought more problems rather than more procurement money.
This means plans to modernize defense industries will have to wait until the war is over. While the war is still under way, Russian defense manufacturers concentrate on quantity, not quality. The inability to obtain additional manufacturing equipment is only partially handled with Chinese imports.

FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Tuesday, November 11, 2025 - 03:54 pm: Edit

Procurement: American Shipbuilding Efforts Stall
November 6, 2025: In the last decade the emergence of China as the builder of most commercial ships had several dramatic side effects. American military and political leaders realized that China might become a military threat. There followed the realization that the U.S. shipbuilding industry shriveled in the face of the overwhelming Chinese domination. This diminished the ability of the U.S. Navy to maintain and repair their ships. Without a strong domestic commercial shipbuilding industry, there was a critical shortage of workers to maintain U.S. warships.
In contrast the Chinese Navy has been able to quickly create a navy with more warships than the United States. Chinese shipbuilders are striving to overtake their main rival South Korea as the largest shipbuilder in the world in all categories. One way China helped its shipyards cope was increasing orders for warships. This was going to happen anyway, but the government gave the navy all it wanted and then some. This resulted in 2019 being a record year for warship construction with 28 surface warships launched, including a record ten destroyers plus 16 corvettes and two large amphibious ships. While warships are more complex ships to build, commercial ships still accounted for over 95 percent of the work at the newly consolidated China Shipbuilding Group. From that point on China has been the largest producer of non-nuclear warships.
China has been helping its shipyards since the late 1990s, and that has enabled Chinese shipbuilders to gradually catch up to South Korea and Japan. In 2009, sooner than anyone expected, China surpassed South Korea as the world's largest shipbuilder in terms of tonnage. In 2000 South Korea took the lead from Japan by having the largest share of the world shipbuilding market. The massive South Korean and Japanese shipbuilding capability has enabled these two nations to reinforce the American’s Pacific Fleet and confront the Chinese with a formidable naval force that blocks any efforts to dominate the South China Sea.
At the same time the Chinese have been working hard on how to build new classes of navy supply ships. These are built to efficiently supply ships at sea. In addition to learning how to transfer these supplies at sea, the crews have also learned how to keep all the needed supplies in good shape and stocked in the required quantities. This requires the procurement officers learning how to arrange resupply at local ports in a timely basis.
As the major producers of commercial ships, China was able to design and build supply ships for the Chinese Navy quickly. Currently the U.S. can build ships but only slowly and in small quantities, and most of those built are warships. American yards are not as efficient as the Chinese shipbuilders and take five to ten years to complete a warship that China can complete in a year or two. This includes non-nuclear aircraft carriers.
During World War II, American shipbuilders built more ships, from PT-boats, to cargo ships and aircraft carriers, than all other nations combined. Early in the 21st century ago poor workmanship and inept management by shipbuilders led to an epic disaster. The LPD amphibious ships were being delivered two years late, way over budget and riddled with flaws. The San Antonio LPD was the poster child for all that's wrong with American warship construction. The list of problems with these ships was long and embarrassing. It cost nearly $40 million and another three months to get all the defects fixed so the San Antonio could enter service.
While the navy is correct in blaming the shipyards for many of the problems, the admirals and their civilian advisors were and are a large part of the problem. After all, the navy draws up the contracts and supplies inspectors during construction of the ships. While Congressional interference can be blamed as well, in the end, it's the navy that has the most to say, and do, about how the ships are built. The problem is that admirals who stand up and take on the contractors and politicians put their careers on the line. But it appears that a number of admirals are willing to take the risks, and try for some fundamental reform, and finally fix the system that turns out to have more problems than warships. Victories have been elusive. The shipyards and their suppliers have powerful allies in Congress. All that money translates into votes that gets incumbent politicians reelected. Congress is not inclined to attack this kind of patronage and pork, since nearly all members of Congress depend on it.
An example of how this works occurred in 2011 when the navy encountered some serious problems with shoddy shipbuilders. This incident involved the Lorenzen a 12,000 ton, 172 meter long radar ship which failed its acceptance tests. This vessel was built to carry a special billion dollar radar used to track ICBM tests. This tracking activity also supports verification of missile and nuclear weapons treaty compliance. This new ship replaces a similar ship that was over 30 years old. The acceptance tests found serious problems with the steering, electrical system, damage control, anchor control, and helicopter facilities.
The navy has also had schedule, budget and quality problems with submarines and aircraft carriers. But some of the worst problems were with the new San Antonio class amphibious ships. Most of these were late, over budget and rife with systems that didn't work, or work for very long.
The builder of the troubled LPDs did try to fix things, but the shipyard in Louisiana, where the LPDs were built, seemed cursed as well. Nothing the shipbuilder did in terms of changing management seemed to work. So the builder shut down the shipyard, once the largest employer in the state and shifted all LPD 17 work to its Pascagoula, Mississippi, yard in 2013. That helped but did not fix all the problems, which many admirals believe resided with the senior management of shipbuilder Northrop Grumman.
The problems with nuclear subs and carriers were minor compared to the LPD travails. Still, the sheer extent of the problems, across so many ships, was very disturbing. This may be why a growing number of admirals were willing to take career risks, and try for some fundamental reform, and finally fix the system that turns out to have more problems than warships. Victory was not assured. The shipyards and their suppliers have powerful allies in Congress. All that money translates into votes that gets incumbent politicians reelected. Congress is not inclined to attack this kind of patronage and pork, since nearly all members of Congress depend on it. The admirals can openly complain, but offended legislators can quietly cripple the careers of those critics. The smart money is betting against the good guys here. So far, the smart money is right. But the bad builder mess is so vast, expensive and messy that even many politicians are calling for some fundamental changes.
In 2025 a new American government came to power pledging to shake things up in government. This meant dismantling and disposing of inefficient and poorly performing agencies. New organizations are created to do what the defunct agency could not do but do it better and cheaper. A recent example of this was the closing of the U.S. Navy Naval Sea Systems Command, or NAVSEA. This organization was responsible for building warships and has a deplorable performance record. The replacement was Shiba Inu, which is headquartered in Louisiana, where most of the navy’s few shipyards are. Shiba Inu stands for Strategic High Impact Barge Artillery Inexpensive Naval Upshift. The first proposal of the new agency was equipping flat bottom barges with cruise missiles and other equipment and towing them out to sea to reach a foreign conflict zone. This idea was immediately shot down when it was pointed out that these barges can only operate on calm water. Any encounter with rough seas will sink a barge. While the U.S. no longe
The NAVSEA replacement was to address the real problems as in insufficient ship building and ship maintenance capabilities. The current situation is that the U.S. Navy is unable to build enough new ships to replace the fleet it currently has, and it can’t maintain the ships it does have, let alone battle damage to those ships in war. The navy has nearly 500 ships in active service as well as the reserve fleet. The principal vessels are the combat ships, which include 11 aircraft carriers, nine Amphibious Assault Ships for transporting and landing marine battalions, ten LPD Amphibious Dock Landing Ships to supply amphibious operations, fifty SSNs/Nuclear attack submarines, fourteen SSBNs/Ballistic missile-carrying nuclear submarines, four SSGMs/SSBNs converted to carry over a hundred cruise missiles each, one frigate, 13 cruisers, 75 destroyers and about fifty support ships of various types.
The navy has recognized the growing importance of Unmanned Surface Vessel or drones and Unmanned Underwater drones but has been slow to order and deploy these unmanned vessels to aid the navy in defending Taiwan from Chinese attack.
The American warships are still, on average, more powerful than their Chinese counterparts. This is largely due to the American nuclear aircraft carriers and nuclear submarine forces. China has nothing like these but does have more anti-ship missiles on their ships plus cruise and ballistic missiles launched from land to hit American ships far from the Chinese coast. American warships are generally well-protected from those, but supply ships aren’t. At all. The primary American weakness is seaborne supply, and the Chinese are aware of that.
In 2012, South Korea lost its decade-long battle with China to retain its lead in shipbuilding. Because of a five-year-long depression in the world shipping market, South Korean ship exports fell 30 percent in 2012, to $37.8 billion. China, helped by government subsidies, saw ship exports fall only 10.3 percent, leaving China with $39.2 billion in export sales. The Chinese government has also been giving its shipbuilders lots of new orders for warships, which made its yards more profitable and better able to beat South Korea on price. The Chinese government also provides its shipbuilders with more loans, allowing the builders to offer better credit terms to customers. South Korea was still ahead of China in total orders for ships, but that lead was being lost, and in 2011 South Korea was barely ahead of China. Since 2012, China and South Korea have been competing for overall first place, but so far, South Korea has the edge in quality and innovation, and the recent Chinese merger was meant to deal with that
China has been helping its shipyards since the late 1990s, and that has enabled Chinese shipbuilders to gradually catch up to South Korea and Japan. In 2009, sooner than anyone expected, China surpassed South Korea as the world's largest shipbuilder in terms of tonnage. In late 2009, Chinese yards had orders for 54.96 million CGT of ships, compared to 53.63 million CGT for South Korea. Thus, China had 34.7 percent of the world market. In 2000, South Korea previously took the lead from Japan in 2000 having the largest share of the world shipbuilding market.
China has invested a lot of money and effort into expanding its merchant shipbuilding industry so as to improve its warship building capability. In 2006 China produced about a quarter of the world's merchant shipping, while South Korea was in the first place, producing about a third. Currently China is in first place followed by South Korea, Japan, Germany, Italy and the United States.
The big thing holding China back in the warship-building area has been the shortage of skilled workers. The Americans have a similar problem. Too many young men go to college and end up unemployed while better paying jobs in the shipbuilding industry go unfilled.
China encouraged merchant shipbuilding, which created experienced shipbuilders ready to learn the more complex tasks needed to build warships. In most cases, merchant ships are larger than warships and much less complex. For example, a common type of merchant ship is the Very Large Crude Carrier or VLCC of 300,000 deadweight tons. This is the largest size tanker that can use the Straits of Malacca to carry oil from the Persian Gulf to East Asia. These ships haul over two million barrels/290,000 tons of oil per trip. These ships are larger than the biggest American aircraft carriers, such as the Nimitz class, which has 110,000 tons of displacement and is nearly 354 meters long.
The major difference between merchant vessels and warships is the equipment they have. Merchant ships are quite basic and plain. A 300,000 ton VLCC is about the same size as a Nimitz-class carrier but costs $130 million to build versus over $4 billion for the carrier. It costs more to run a carrier for one year than the VLCC costs to build. Part of that has to do with crew size, with the carrier having a hundred sailors for every one sailor needed to run the tanker. A VLCC is highly automated, and the crew size is usually under fifty sailors and officers.
By building all those merchant vessels, China has acquired the ability to cheaply build basic warship hulls. It has big problems in creating the complex electronics, mechanical systems, and weapons needed to make a warship work. China is making progress there as well, but not nearly as much as it has in the shipbuilding area.
China became a major force in commercial shipping partly because it became more difficult for South Korean builders to expand. There were more restrictions on land use in South Korea, in addition to higher labor costs. South Korean builders, seeing that they could not match the expansion of Chinese shipyards, expended more effort on building more complex and expensive ships. Japan was following a similar path when it lost the lead to South Korea a decade before China grabbed it. China also gained more market share by offering generous loan terms to foreign buyers of Chinese ships and cheap loans for their own shipbuilders.
The one vulnerability China has not yet come up with a solution for is how to prevent the Americans from seizing many of these Chinese-built, owned, and operated ships during wartime.


FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Tuesday, November 11, 2025 - 03:55 pm: Edit

Air Defense: AWACS Shrink to Survive
November 5, 2025: The United States retired the last of its E-3 AWACS/Airborne Warning And Control System in 2023. The air force initially wanted to replace the four engine E-3 AWACAS with the twin engine E-7 Wedge Tail AWACS. The first of 26 E-7s was to enter service in 2027. Two were ordered at a cost of $600 million each. It was later revealed that the cost would be higher by at least a billion dollars for the original $2.6 billion 26 E-7 order.
The air force wants to replace the AWACS with space satellites, in addition to the U.S. Navy’s carrier based E-2D AWACS. U.S. War Department officials consider any type of aircraft-based AWACS as too vulnerable in modern warfare. While surveillance satellites are also vulnerable, the U.S. is using American firm SpaceX to put these satellites into orbit. SpaceX has regularly demonstrated that they can put more satellites into orbit to replace any losses, assuming, of course, that no enemy attacks Space X launch sites with drones launched from secretly pre-positioned drones in cargo containers as Ukraine did in 2025 to destroy a third or half of Russia’s heavy bombers.
Meanwhile, European members of NATO are purchasing aircraft similar to the E-7. These include the Swedish GlobalEye AWACS/ELINT (Electronic Intelligence) aircraft. The current version of GlobalEye can handle aerial, maritime and land surveillance. Aircraft can be detected up to 500 kilometers distant. Flying lower, GlobalEye can use its Synthetic-aperture surface search radar to obtain detailed depictions of the surface and target-detection by identifying which objects are moving and how fast. The radars can also detect ballistic missile launches. The ELINT system detects and identifies electronic transmissions from aerial or surface vehicles. While the aircraft has five onboard operator stations, the operators can be ground based via a real-time data transmission of what the sensors are detecting.
Both Sweden and Poland want to monitor Russian operations over or on the Baltic Sea and a pair of GlobalEye aircraft would do that. In 2021 the Swedish Air Force ordered two GlobalEye aircraft to replace its two 1990s-era Erieye AEW aircraft. Both were flown by twin-turboprop Saab 340 aircraft. The Erieye radar and associated electronics were designed and built in Sweden. The Erieye AEW system was also available in the Brazilian EMB 145 twin-jet regional aircraft. This 21-ton aircraft is used for Erieye AEW by Brazil, Mexico, and Greece. Most Erieye AEW export customers used the Saab 340 or the larger 22-ton Saab-2000 turboprop regional airliner.
Globaleye entered service in 2019 using an upgraded Erieye ER radar which can detect aircraft over 400 kilometers distant and do so in greater detail. GlobalEye can detect and track more aircraft at one time and better deal with ECM/Electronic CounterMeasures carried by detected aircraft. Another new feature is the ability to detect ballistic missile launches as well. GlobalEye includes a maritime search radar as well in addition to more SIGINT/Signals intelligence equipment for detecting and identifying a wide range of radars and ECM equipment. Since a combined AEW/maritime search/SIGINT system is heavier and needs more space, as well as operating farther from land, GlobalEye is carried in the larger 45-ton Global 6000 aircraft which has a cruising speed of 900 kilometers an hour and endurance of about ten hours. Like the basic Erieye system, GlobalEye can be carried in any number of similar twin-engine jet or turboprop aircraft. The two GlobalEye aircraft for Sweden will apparently use the Global 6000 aircraft.
While Sweden was the first customer for the Erieye system, the UAE (United Arab Emirates) was the first to order GlobalEye, based on their experience with two Erieye systems they ordered in 2009. The Erieye system is built around an Active Electronically Scanned Array/AESA radar which consists of thousands of tiny radars that can be independently aimed in different directions. This is like the AESA radar used on the American JSTARS aircraft, a system that can locate vehicles moving on the ground. The Swedish AESA is cheaper because it's built like a long bar, mounted on top of the aircraft, rather than a rotating assembly inside a dome as on the JSTARS. This means the Swedish AESA radar can only see, in a 120-degree arc, off both sides of the aircraft. A 60-degree arc in the front and back is uncovered. The Erieye ER radar can spot large aircraft out to nearly 500 kilometers, and more common fighter-sized aircraft at about 400 kilometers. The UAE used their Erieye aircraft to manage air campaigns, including
With all that in mind, the UAE ordered new GlobalEye systems in 2015. At that time GlobalEye was still in development. Given the UAE’s experience with the reliability of Erieye, it seemed a good idea to be first in line for the new version. GlobalEye completed development and testing in 2019 and the UAE received the first one in early 2020.
At the end of 2020 the UAE ordered two more GlobalEye AEW systems for about $500 million each. All six of the UAE GlobalEye systems use the Bombardier 6000 jet which can stay in the air longer and proved effective in detecting Iranian air and naval activity in the Persian Gulf. The UAE also backs a wider program to link ground and air-based surveillance radars of GCC/Gulf Cooperation Council states of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE into a cooperative surveillance network that provides all GCC members with better information on that is going on in the skies over their nations and the Persian Gulf in general. Saab told the UAE that they could help with integrating GlobalEye data into the new GCC system because both Erieye and GlobalEye were designed to be used by NATO members and integrated into the joint NATO air defense system. The 2020 recognition of Israel by the UAE makes possible the incorporation of Israeli data into the GCC system as well.
FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Tuesday, November 11, 2025 - 03:56 pm: Edit

Naval Air: New Chinese Carrier Fighter
November 5, 2025: Two months ago, China introduced its new J-35 carrier based stealth fighter and J-35A stealth fighter-bomber. So far about 60 of these aircraft have been built. Development of the J-35 was rapid. The prototype made its first flight in 2012, after less than a decade of development.
The J-35 is a 30-ton, single seat, twin engine stealth aircraft with a 13.5 meter wingspan. The total weapons load is eight tons. Two tons can be carried internally and six more tons attached to six hard points on the wings. The stealth effect is diminished if weapons are carried externally. Electronics include AESA radar and electro-optical targeting radar plus an optical warning system for approaching missiles. Combat range is about 1,200 kilometers on internal fuel. That can be extended to 2,000 kilometers with external fuel tanks replacing about half the bomb load. The J-35 can also do aerial refueling.
There are some possible reasons for the rapid development of the J-35. In 2009 there were reports that Internet based hackers had made off with the manufacturer database for the then American F-35 stealth fighter. The data theft was believed to be for China, which had two stealth fighters, the 37-ton J-20 and 28-ton FC-31, which were then still in development. The J-20 made its first flight in 2011 and entered service in 2017. There were problems that delayed mass production until 2022. As of early 2023 only about 200 J-20s were in service. The J20 was the first Chinese designed and built modern jet fighter. China saw the J-20 as similar to the American F-22 while the FC-31 would be similar to the American F-35. It did not turn out as China had hoped and until 2015 there were few details revealed about the FC-31.
In 2015 someone in China anonymously posted performance data for the new 18 ton FC-31/J-31 stealth fighter. This was in the form of a sales brochure for trade shows that had not been distributed to the public. Up to 2015 the manufacturer has been vague about J-31 performance data. This despite the fact that the J-31 had been showing up at Chinese weapons shows. The 2015 promotion was all about looking at the impressive appearance of the J-31, not crunching any numbers.
It gets more interesting when you realize that the posted data ascribes better engine performance than actual engines the Chinese have in service or access to. There were also descriptions of J-31 electronics that sounded more like a Chinese wish list rather than anything the Chinese have or are known to be developing. Many in the industry see this as some kind of desperate publicity stunt. Efforts to sell the J-31 to export customers have failed.
It was later revealed that in late 2014 China quietly approached some potential customers about buying J-31s. For export customers the J-31 would be called the FC-31 and it was understood that this version would not have all the best equipment the Chinese J-31 had. Pakistan expressed some interest, but then Pakistan is the largest export customer for Chinese weapons. Pakistan apparently thought it best to wait a bit because it was unclear how ready the J-31 was for active service. Since 2012 China has been testing the J-31. While it looks like the American F-22, it’s also smaller than China’s other stealth fighter, the J-20, which has been around longer. The J-31 was built by the Shenyang Aircraft Corporation, which also makes the J-31 an illegal Chinese copy of the Russian Su-27. The J-31 has some characteristics of the F-35 as well and appears to be something of an F-35 to the earlier J-20s effort to match the American F-22. The J-31 flew for the first time in October 2012 and at that point there were at l
One advantage of the J-31 is that it has two engines, compared to one for the 31-ton F-35. In theory this means the J-31 could carry more weapons, but this is less crucial with all the guided weapons available. Another problem is that the J-31 was using Chinese engines, which are less powerful and reliable, even when two are used, compared to the single engine in the F-35C.
The J-31 was further evidence that China is determined to develop its own high tech military gear. While China is eager to develop advanced military technology locally, it recognizes that this takes time and more effort than nations new to this expect. Thus, China is trying to avoid the mistakes Russia made in this area. That means having competing designs and developing necessary supporting industries as part of that. All this takes a lot of time and involves lots of little and some major failures. The Chinese are doing it right and are willing to wait until they get military tech that is truly world class. Originally the J-31 was supposed to be ready for service by 2019 and have ground attack as well as air-to-air capabilities. As of 2023 the J-31 was still stuck in the prototype stage.
Meanwhile, the F-35 has been very successful and the Chinese paid close attention to that. New or prospective customers for the F-35 are attracted by the enthusiasm of those who have flown the F-35. There are only about 1,200 F-35 pilots, and about ten times as many maintainers who keep F-35s ready to fly. The U.S. Air Force, the largest F-35 user, has a shortage of trainers and is having problems keeping up with total demand for pilots. Most F-35 pilots are transitions, that is experienced fighter pilots transitioning to the F-35. These require much less training time and the Americans are concentrating on expanding their transition program. F-35 pilots all confirm that the F-35 is not just a modern stealth aircraft, but incorporates software and a degree of built-in automation that produces a spectacular, easy to use and very effective pilot experience.
The F-35 has a large number of sensors, including receivers for electronic signals, six cameras and a very capable radar, and the fusion of all that data and presentation to the pilot based on the current situation is impressive. This fusion makes the F-35 much easier to fly, despite all the additional capabilities it has. This sort of thing is not a new idea. By the 1990s it was recognized that this new technology, called data fusion, would be a key capability for combat aircraft as well as ships and ground forces. Put simply, it's all about taking real-time video camera, radar and sensor data plus other information about the battlefield situation from databases and current reports, and combining it to provide commanders with a better understanding of current operations, preferably in real-time if you are a fighter pilot. Pilots agree that the heart of the F-35’s superior capabilities is its software along with digital communications with ships, other aircraft and troops on the ground.
The F-35 is apparently the best working example of this so far and what is learned from the F-35 software has become the basis for updated software for older aircraft. But beyond the data fusion, and automatic sharing with other aircraft or systems on the ground, the pilots were impressed about how effective the pilot assistant software was. This is another concept that has been around for decades and more frequently installed in new aircraft. These minor advances get reported but never make headlines. But given the F-35s' stealth, maneuverability and sensor/data fusion, most pilots quickly become enthusiastic proponents of the aircraft. China won’t discuss its plans to incorporate these F-35 data management capabilities into their stealth fighters. The Chinese do like to talk about their research into AI/Artificial Intelligence systems. It’s unclear how many of these F-35 capabilities the J-35 has.
F-35 software is more complex and omnipresent throughout the aircraft than in any previous warplane. Because of that, it requires a major effort to implement and test any software changes. Some major upgrades are needed in how F-35 software changes are made and how quickly. In wartime this would be essential as otherwise vulnerable aircraft would be grounded when needed most.
As of 2023 over 900 F-35s have been delivered, mostly to the U.S. Air Force and Marine Corps. In 2018 alone 133 were delivered and that rose to 141 in 2020 with additional slight increases in annual deliveries until 2023. By the end of 2020 about 650 F-35s were in service, a status that takes place months after delivery. Over 4,000 F-35s are expected to be delivered by the mid-2030s with more than 70 percent going to the United States.
The F-35A is a 31-ton, single engine fighter that is 15.7 meters long with a 10.7-meter wingspan. The F-35A can carry 8.1 tons of weapons in addition to an internal 20mm four-barrel autocannon. Before the SDB/GPS guided Small Diameter Bomb arrived, four internal air-to-air missiles or two missiles and two smart bombs plus four external smart bombs and two missiles could be carried. A new bomb rack allows the F-35 to carry eight SDBs internally. All sensors are carried internally and max weapon load is 6.8 tons. The aircraft is very stealthy when just carrying internal weapons.
In 2001 the U.S. believed 5,100 F-35s would be sold but the rising costs and increasing delays drove that down to 3,100 by 2013 and 2,500 by 2018. Now that some F-35s are actually in service and getting good reviews from users, sales are increasing. The aircraft carrier Ford was supposed to enter service in 2018 but that didn’t happen until January 2020. That has no impact on foreign sales because few, if any, export orders were ever expected for the F-35C.
FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Tuesday, November 11, 2025 - 03:57 pm: Edit

Leadership: Russian Suspicions about China
October 27, 2025: Officially, China and Russia are allies and trading partners. The reality is somewhat different. Both countries are constantly and quietly spying on each other. China has become the second largest economy in the world, with a GDP of nearly $19 trillion compared to Russia’s about two trillion dollars. Because of this disparity Russia is constantly trying to steal Chinese technology and reproduce it in a way that enables them to claim they also developed a similar tech. During most of the 1945-91 Cold War the Russian economy was larger, especially on a per-capita basis, and the Chinese grew increasingly bold in stealing Russian technology. While the Russians complained, they were restrained about it because they valued China as a diplomatic and military ally.
The Chinese economy didn’t begin to grow until the 1980s when China finally underwent the industrial revolution. This was something of a shock to the Russians, who thought it would take the Chinese much longer to industrialize and create an economy second only to the Americans. This is what caused the Russian envy and rampant theft of Chinese technology. By the 21st Century it also became obvious that the Chinese military had modernized to the point that China was a potential military threat to Russia. China never renounced its claims on Russian territory in the far east, where the Russian city of Vladivostok was, until 1860, the Chinese city of Yongmingcheng. The Russian Far East is already dominated economically by the Chinese, and the Russians fear that the Chinese want these territories back. Russia would probably comply because they need China as an ally and are too weak economically and militarily to resist such Chinese demands.
Meanwhile, China is already overshadowing Russia in diplomatic terms. Two years ago, China got credit for arranging a peace deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran which involved these two long-time antagonists resuming diplomatic relations and halting military operations against each other. This was a major achievement for China, which has long been neutral, or pro-Iranian, in the sometimes violent conflict between Iran and the Arabi oil states as well as most Western nations. While this preliminary agreement made for great headlines and indicated a decline in American influence in Saudi Arabia, it was not a done deal. The announcement was about intentions not actual accomplishments. Iran has a long history of violating agreements. Iran is still subject to economic sanctions by Western nations because of continued Iranian efforts to develop nuclear weapons. Armed with the ultimate weapon, Iran could more easily intimidate neighboring countries and resume its historical role as the regional superpower.
Iran, China and Russia are now allies, diplomatically if not economically and militarily. Despite that, there are still suspicions. For example, Russia has sent troops stationed on border areas to Ukraine, but still keeps somewhat more than token forces on portions of its 4,200-kilometer Chinese border. There Russia faces, for the first time, a larger, better armed, trained and led Chinese army. China has unresolved claims on most of the Russian Pacific coast territories. Russia also has a 17-kilometer border with North Korea and Russian troops are sometimes seen here as well. Since the Ukraine War began, fewer Russian troops have been seen on other foreign borders. That’s because the crisis in Ukraine demanded more troops to replace losses.
The scale and scope of Russian army losses in Ukraine is unprecedented. While air forces and navy losses were relatively minor, the SRF/Strategic Rocket Forces and their thousands of nuclear warheads still have the same number of troops so the Russian State is still secure. Neighboring China also has lots of nukes, with more of them aimed at Russia than ever before. That is not the major Chinese threat to Russia. Rather it is Russian dependence on Chinese economic and military cooperation. China remains on good terms with Russia economically and militarily. China warned Russia to back off on nuclear threats over the Ukraine War and made it clear that China considered the Ukraine War a major mistake. Before 2022, Russia and China were seen as a powerful military and economic alliance. Now the Russian military is revealed to be much less capable than previously thought. Western sanctions have devastated the Russian economy and China will benefit from that at the expense of Russia. What happened to Russia in Uk
China insists it will continue to maintain pressure against its opponents in territorial disputes. Chief among this is the Chinese effort to gain control of Taiwan plus Indian territory that China claims is illegally occupied by India. Then there is the most blatant claim of all, ownership of the South China Sea. All these claims are vigorously opposed by growing coalitions of powerful countries. Russia supports these Chinese claims, which costs Russia nothing diplomatically or monetarily. This is an example of how far Russia will go to placate the Chinese.

FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Tuesday, November 11, 2025 - 03:58 pm: Edit

Morale: Uncertain Length of the Ukraine War
October 27, 2025: Four months from now the Ukraine War will be four years old. Russia, Ukraine and the NATO supporters of suppliers of the Ukrainian war effort are also eager to see an end to the fighting. In the last year, Russian leader Vladimir Putin has expressed growing interest in finding a way to end the war. The primary obstacle to peace is Russian occupied Ukrainian territory.
Russia began seizing Ukrainian territory in 2014. When the Russians invaded Ukraine in 2022, they already held 11.5 percent of Ukraine. Currently Russia occupies about 19 percent of Ukraine but the Ukrainian forces are reducing that. Russian personnel and economic losses have made it difficult for the Russians to resist Ukrainian counteroffensives. Another reason for the Russians to make a deal is to rescue Russian espionage efforts in Europe. Two years ago a Russian espionage effort in Britain ran afoul of local incompetence and mixed signals from the Russian FSB intelligence agency. It all began after the Russian invasion of Ukraine when Russia ordered the revival of its espionage network in Britain. The effort was organized by Jan Marsalek, an Austrian business executive living in Russia to avoid prosecution for economic crimes back home. Marsalek still had a large number of contacts in Europe and was able to hire six Bulgarian men to carry out pro-Russian and anti-American operations in Europe. This w
Some success was achieved via online efforts, but these were redundant because pro-Russian propaganda was already being spread on the internet by Russian citizens and their western fans. This was not the first Russian propaganda effort in Europe and was the latest one to fail. Since 2022 Russia has spent over half a million dollars trying to establish espionage and propaganda operations in Europe. Not much success, mainly because the European counterespionage organizations were able to detect and disable Russian operations. The Russians undertook several similar operations in other European countries and had little success with these efforts. This clumsy espionage encouraged NATO countries to continue their support of Ukraine. Enthusiasm for that support was weakening in many NATO countries, especially those NATO nations that do not border Ukraine or Russia. Russia took the hint and abandoned most of those efforts in order to put NATO nations in the mood to tolerate a peace deal that the Russians could live
Russia is facing economic collapse. The economic sanctions have gotten worse as the war went on and Russians in general are fed up with heavy losses and miniscule gains. Ukrainian intelligence agencies believe the end is near for the Russian war effort in Ukraine and that it is not a matter of if, but when, the Russian war effort will collapse.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Wednesday, November 12, 2025 - 01:38 pm: Edit

Logistics: Sanctioning The Shadow Tanker Fleet
November 12, 2025: Britain recently sanctioned 135 oil tanker ships as part of a crackdown on Russian efforts to sell oil. The Russian economy has been sanctioned since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. Also sanctioned was Intershipping Services LLC, a company that registers the shadow fleet tankers under the Gabonese flag. Most merchant ships are registered under the flags of five nations, Liberia, Panama, Marshall Islands, Hong Kong and Singapore. The European Union/EU has also become a major provider. The European Union is a major player in devising and implementing new sanctions on the Russian economy, and recently developed the 198th round of sanctions, which concentrates on identifying over a hundred shadow tankers and arranging to have them seized if entering a port when NATO can enforce a seizure. Finally, the EU has imposed a lower price cap of $47.60 per barrel on Russian oil. The previous cap was $60. Russia continues to try and evade these measures, but that becomes increasingly difficult as more s
Russia’s economy and war effort against Ukraine is financed by oil and other energy exports. Russia is operating under severe economic sanctions imposed to reduce that income and create economic conditions for Russia that make it difficult or impossible to continue their war in Ukraine.
The key to Russian oil exports is the use of foreign tankers to smuggle their petroleum and coal from Russia to overseas customers. Eighty percent of the oil for China goes by pipeline and cannot be disrupted. China accounts for nearly half of Russian petroleum and other energy exports. It’s the other half that is at risk because of a growing list of sanctions.
The economic sanctions were imposed on Russia because of its 2022 invasion, in an effort to reduce its hard currency income from exports of oil and natural gas. These are the main Russian exports and the major source of income for the Russian government and war effort. To evade these sanctions, Russia created a growing shadow fleet of oil tankers purchased and/or leased abroad and obtained unrestricted access to a Chinese smuggler haven maintained in Hong Kong.
Current estimates are that nearly 900 tankers are smuggling sanctioned Russian petroleum to customers in China, India, the European Union/EU, Turkey and Myanmar. Most refined petroleum products go to Turkey, China, Brazil, Singapore and India. The rest goes to nine countries, in the Middle East, Africa and Taiwan. China has been buying 47 percent of the crude oil while India takes 37 percent followed by Turkey and the EU with six percent each. China, India and Turkey account for about 90 percent of Russian income from the sale of oil, natural gas and coal. The U.S. is imposing additional tariffs on countries that import Russian oil. India is already subject to these tariffs, which increases what they have to pay for imports from the United States. The Americans are negotiating with China and Turkey over what tariffs are being imposed to discourage Russian oil imports.
The nations enforcing the sanctions, particularly the United States, have tracked the routes of the Russian shadow fleet and noted the key role Hong Kong plays in arranging the movement of sanctioned Russian oil to its primary customers in China and India. Hong Kong is also a major source for supplying sanctioned nations with weapons and munitions. A current customer is Russia. Hong Kong does this by allowing Russian tankers and cargo ships, operating with fake credentials to disguise their Russian affiliation, to bring in Russian oil and other raw materials. The Russian ships then leave Hong Kong carrying weapons for their war in Ukraine.
Another major player in Russia’s smuggling effort is North Korea. For years North Korea has been buying small, secondhand cargo and tanker ships and using them for smuggling. A favored evasion technique consists of taking on or transferring cargo at sea in its own territorial waters. The North Korean merchant fleet consists of about 150 ships, mostly purchased from Chinese firms.
North Korea is a notorious and persistent maritime smuggler. Because of North Korean smuggling, the United States expanded its maritime smuggling and sanctions enforcement program in 2018 when a new multi-national enforcement organization was created. Initial members were the United States, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Britain, France, South Korea, and Japan. The Enforcement Coordination Cell, or ECC, is enforcing the UN sanctions that curb North Korean smuggling related to items needed for their nuclear and ballistic missile programs. In addition, the ECC allowed member nations to also enforce whatever other sanctions or naval missions their government put a priority on. The U.S. has since invited India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines to join and assist with monitoring growing Chinese violation of offshore water rights, especially in the South China Sea and other areas of the West Pacific.
The ECC concentrates on the 2,000-kilometer-long shipping lane from the Indian Ocean, through the Malacca Strait and the South China Sea to North Korea. Along this route there are not only North Korean flagged ships participating in smuggling, but even more Chinese, Taiwanese, Liberian, Sri Lankan, and ships that are independent and fly whatever flag they believe will keep them from getting seized for smuggling. Earlier U.S. efforts had already identified many North Korean and Iranian-owned tankers and cargo ships that were often engaged in smuggling. This led Iran and North Korea to use their own ships less and willing foreign ships instead. These third-party ships are the ones the ECC sought to identify. These ships can be identified, along with their owners and the owners can have banking and other sanctions placed on them. Many nations, not part of the ECC, but economic partners with ECC members, will cooperate if a smuggler ship visits one of their ports. At that point the captain can be arrested and th
ECC member warships do not depend on inspecting suspicious ships while at sea, but instead confirming who is where and when. This is especially useful for spotting smugglers who often turn off their location beacons and continue in running dark mode. These location beacons transmit current ID and location to any nearby ships and often, via satellite, to their owner and international shipping organizations. The location data, past and current, can be found on several public websites. The beacons exist mainly as a safety measure for ships operating at night or in bad weather in heavily used shipping lanes. Smugglers have learned how to turn off their beacons near a port where, it is assumed, they have docked or anchored off the coast waiting for an available dock.
Some smugglers are using spoofing, a form of jamming that just modifies the beacon signal to present a false location. This is where warships and maritime aircraft come in as these can identify ships visually or using radar followed by visual inspection. This is more damaging to the smugglers because it provides more evidence that their ship was involved in smuggling, and with enough evidence, you can go after the ship owners and seize the ship whenever it enters coastal waters, within 22 kilometers of land belonging to a nation that will seize outlaw ships.
FYEO

By Carl-Magnus Carlsson (Hardcore) on Wednesday, November 12, 2025 - 03:20 pm: Edit

Say what?:"A recent example of this was the closing of the U.S. Navy Naval Sea Systems Command, or NAVSEA. This organization was responsible for building warships and has a deplorable performance record. The replacement was Shiba Inu, which is headquartered in Louisiana, where most of the navy’s few shipyards are. Shiba Inu stands for Strategic High Impact Barge Artillery Inexpensive Naval Upshift."

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Wednesday, November 12, 2025 - 06:27 pm: Edit

Huh…

I thought Shiba Inu was a breed of dag.

Go figure.

By Eddie E Crutchfield (Librarian101) on Wednesday, November 12, 2025 - 08:45 pm: Edit

I hear the Shiba Inu breed has filed a defamation law suit against the government. It was explained to me in great detail by my member last night.

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Wednesday, November 12, 2025 - 09:19 pm: Edit

Another example of Russia scraping the bottom of the barrel trying to defeat Ukraine.

Back in the day, the U.S.S.R developed and deployed an armored vehicle titled MT-LB. Lightly armored, no turret, a number of variants.

One, was armed with a single Sturm Missile, anti tank missile , speed up to 770 mph, range three miles, couple of machine guns, and an optional grenade launcher.

Another variant was as an APC (armored personnel carrier). Russia started the war with about 1,800 units deployed with active units, and reinforced them with another 3,000 units from various depots. Total losses to date according to Ukrainian sources is over 5,000 destroyed or damaged.

It is known that Russia has retrieved some (how many is unknown) repaired and redeployed the. Back into combat.

It has now been reported that the Sturm equipped anti tank variants (which are about the last large group of units still in the depots) are being readied, modified for combat as APCs which means all of the missile equipment guidance and control systems are being removed.

It is a lot of work to mobilize another 1,000 very old (1970’s) vehicles just to carry around troops or supplies. (As an APC, the three member MT-LB in a crew compartment, and room for 11 more soldiers in the rear.)

The same article stated that the Russian Army has ordered a new replacement for theMT-LB using a T-90 chassis scheduled for delivery in 2027-9.

Apparently, Russia thinks it will still be fighting Ukraine for another 4 or 5 years .

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Wednesday, November 12, 2025 - 11:01 pm: Edit

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Quote:

Eighty percent of the oil for China goes by pipeline and cannot be disrupted.

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By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Thursday, November 13, 2025 - 05:05 am: Edit

Ukraine has proved that it can successfully enter Russia using civilian trucks, loaded with drones.

Its one of the methods they used to hit targets farther north such as St. Petersburg.

They have also used “mothership” drones, larger sized drones that can carry a number of smaller drones, thus extending the range of the smaller drones.

By Robert Russell Lender (Rusman) on Thursday, November 13, 2025 - 10:40 am: Edit

I don't think the Ukrainians ENTERED Russia with civilian trucks.
They smuggled drones into Russia, then used Russian trucks as drone launch platforms for their attack.

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Thursday, November 13, 2025 - 10:48 am: Edit

Robert Russell Lender:

As you might expect, the Ukrainian Media has not explicitly stated the exact time table, identified the number, types or nationality of the vehicles used.

My assumption is that Ukrainian agents (Ukrainian or Russian sympathizers)used some form of transport (ownership of such vehicles being an open question), of various types to accomplish the tasks in some general method as described in the press releases.

Of course you or any one else can discuss or dispute what did, or did not, happen, or the order of such events, but there is a few things not in doubt.

There was an attack, using drones, that hit targets deep into Russia territory.