Archive through February 04, 2026
Star Fleet Universe Discussion Board: Non-Game Discussions: Real-World Military:
Archive through February 04, 2026
In the early days, when the scandal broke...
There was a lot of talk about where he got his money....
I don't recall that ever being answered...
Then silence on about everything for a bit...
Epstein was implicated in a sex trafficking case, and was IIRC, convicted.
Not sure if the whole story has ever been released of what happened prior to his later incarceration in NYC… which still doesn’t address his subsequent suicide/murder in custody.
(Conspiracy theorists have had a field day trying to determine did he kill himself, or was he assisted by person or persons unknown…)
Every intelligence agency in the world had a presence on his island, collecting what they could about anyone.
Jeff, it’s not a matter of whether someone murdered Epstein, it’s a matter of who got to him first. Intel agents were tripping over each other getting their noose around his neck. I wonder if they didn’t all meet at the Wartergate Bar to draw straws and see who got the honor of murdering him.
I see a Murder On The Orient Express scenario. They ALL wanted him dead and they ALL worked together to make it happen.
Epstein was, truly, the man who knew too much for anyone to allow him to stay alive.
Several recent Presidents have been quite elderly. Reagan, Biden and Trump are the three eldest Presidents when inaguated. And all three, justified or not, have had their mental acuity whilst in office questioned.
As the Commander in Chief, why not require the President to undergo BIPARTISAN physicals? None of this "According to me, my doctor says I'm 200 pounds and 7' 11" of steel and should compete in the Olympics" stuff. Say a panel made up of 2 doctors from each party. Test results to be public. Heck do this for every candidate in the Primaries.
Nice theory, finding honest doctors would be a chore, these days. You know very well what the two Republicans would have said about Biden and what the two Democrats would say about Trump.
But if that fantasy makes you warm and happy, enjoy it!
The theory is that elections allow the voting population to determine between various candidates, and fitness to serve.
A free and open press should allow the voters the knowledge of one or the other candidates health status and choose their candidate based on whatever facts that they determine relative.
The coverup(s), should they occur, in a perfect world, would result in punishment of those responsible for hiding 5he information.
Jeff, if that fantasy about responsible journalism makes you warm and fuzzy, go for it!
Sea Transportation: Militarizing Merchant Ships
February 2, 2026: China is adopting a centuries old concept to enhance its naval combat effectiveness. Last year a photograph was taken in a Chinese shipyard near Shanghai which revealed a cargo ship being equipped with shipping containers containing missiles. This was nothing new for the Chinese but, in addition to the container ship, a number of other commercial ships were being modified to support amphibious operations. There was also a truck on the deck of a ship. The truck carried a catapult for launching large drones. These drones could be used for reconnaissance and surveillance or armed with explosives for attacks on ships or land targets.
All this is part of a Chinese program to adapt commercial shipping, including Roll on Roll Off/RoRo ships, to be part of an amphibious operation against Taiwan, or a surprise attack on the United States as part of an invasion of Taiwan. An alarming such ship is an armed merchant raider with armed drones in vertical launch tubes and catapults for launching very large drones carrying scores of smaller armed drones. Several such armed merchant raiders could wreck an American aircraft carrier battle group, a naval base or a coastal Air Force base.
For nearly thirty years China has been making serious preparations to launch an amphibious operation to conquer Taiwan. The latest development is a barge that carries a 130 meter long road platform that can be used on coastal areas that lack beaches but are close to roads. The new Chinese landing barges can approach these areas once Chinese commandos or paratroopers have seized a small portion. The barge gets close enough to the coastline for its road platform to be shoved or carried forward somehow to plop down near a coastal road. Then amphibious or RoRo ships come up behind the barge and drive vehicles, including tanks, onto the barge, across the road platform onto Taiwanese territory near a road. Currently, there are only six potential invasion beaches in Taiwan. The new road platform barge means Taiwan has to reconsider its defense plan against amphibious landings.
Last year Chinese leader Xi Jinping decided to seize or try to seize Taiwan before the end of the decade. Xi realizes Taiwan has a say in this matter and wants to mobilize sufficient forces and create the right psychological conditions in China and Taiwan. This includes having Chinese naval and air forces operating near Taiwan on a regular basis, so the Taiwanese military is not alarmed every time Chinese forces operate near the island.
Some of these forces that regularly appear off the Taiwanese cast are those that would be used if China were seeking to blockade Taiwan. Chinese military forces will eventually blockade Taiwan and prevent any ships from getting in or out.
Preparations are also being made inside China. Laws have been passed allowing China to quickly nationalize foreign assets as part of a program to keep the Chinese people supplied if there are an international embargo and economic sanctions. China also plans to increase its emergency petroleum stockpile so there will be supplies for years of isolation. China is also building a pipeline to get petroleum to areas that normally receive it from the nearest coastal city and port. China is purchasing oil from as many suppliers as possible as these nations will feel the economic pain if China is embargoed because it seized Taiwan.
Xi Jinping expects most of the nations in the world to oppose a seizure of Taiwan. To deal with that, China is reducing its holdings of American government bonds. This reduces the damage to China if the United States declares war and seizes whatever Chinese assets it can. China hopes such a war will not involve much military action beyond that needed to blockade China. According to Chinese plans, that blockade would last a few years and would then be lifted because so many nations want to end their economic suffering because trade with China was blocked. China is the second largest, after the United States, trading nation in the world and taking Chinese trade out of circulation would cause worldwide suffering. In theory, it would be worse for China but not if China can build up large enough reserves of essential industrial supplies oil and food to survive the economic catastrophe China created. These Chinese moves would lead to economic disruption outside China for years and have a lasting impact that could take a decade or more to recover from.
The Chinese plans are theoretical at the moment even though China is quietly implementing some aspects of their surviving the expected worldwide economic disruption a seizure of Taiwan would lead to. Another problem is that enough details of the Chinese plan have become known to trading partners and nations willing to use military and economic force to block a Chinese attack on Taiwan. China wants to avoid a war but Taiwan and its military allies, especially the United States, are willing to meet force with force. China doesn’t want to get into a war because its forces are untested and, as recent corruption scandals have demonstrated, led by generals who are more concerned with getting rich than getting ready for war.
Taiwan and its allies have been increasing their military preparations for over a decade. This began before the current Chinese economic and military activities and China is now seen reacting to efforts to make the Chinese plans more difficult to implement. Taiwan has purchased new weapons as well as increasing stockpiles of ones it already has. That means more warships, warplanes, and equipment for ground forces.
Taiwan is the most troublesome independent portion of China. After World War II Taiwan acquired protection from the United States before the new communist Chinese government could get organized and do anything about the troublesome Chinese province of Taiwan.
FYEO
Intelligence: Chinese Plans for South American Operations
February 1, 2026: China had an interesting reaction to the January 3 rd U.S. raid in Venezuela that captured dictator Nicholas Maduro and his wife. There were also air strikes on coastal facilities that supported cocaine and other drugs being exported to the United States. Another aspect of the raid was that it occurred shortly after Maduro met with Chinese diplomat Qiu Xiaoqi to discuss matters of mutual interest. China buys 68 percent of Venezuelan oil at a special, for China only, discount price. That’s only four percent of Chinese oil imports and is easily replaced by oil from other sources. In the last 19 years China has loaned Venezuela $63 billion. Venezuela has a current GDP of $82 billion. In 2012 the GDP was $373 billion. Nicolas Maduro, and his predecessor and mentor Hugo Chavez were not good for the economy.
China has exploited Venezuela as well as invested in the country. China has done the same to five other South American nations. Many of the investments involved Chinese personnel building and managing new port facilities in South America. China sees its South American investments as something worth defending. Chinese wargames often involve Chinese forces operating in South America. To assist in that sort of thing, China has long maintained an ELINT/Electronic Intelligence operation in Cuba. This involves Chinese activities at several locations in Cuba. The recent American military operations in Venezuela involve blocking free shipments of Venezuelan oil to Cuba. Since Cuba is currently broke, with periodic blackouts when the national electric power system fails, the loss of Venezuelan oil is a major problem.
The current American president is pursuing a policy of increasing American economic, military and diplomatic activity in South America. This may also address the continuing plundering of offshore South American fishing grounds by fleets of Chinese trawlers. That would be part of the effort to keep the Chinese and Russians out. China plans to challenge that by selling Air Defense systems to Cuba and Columbia. This is happening despite the fact that Chinese Air Defense systems already in Venezuela were ineffective against the Americans raid that captured Maduro and his wife, killing 32 Cuban bodyguards and some civilians along the way.
FYEO
Procurement: KF 21 Jet Fighter Has South Korean Engine
February 1, 2026: The South Korean KF-21 jet fighter will enter service next month, and delivery of the first 40 Block 1 air superiority aircraft will be completed in 2028. After that, 80 Block 2 fighter-bombers are to be ordered and delivered by 2032. The Block 3 stealth version will show up sometime in the 2030s. This year South Korea began development of a South Korean engine for the KF-21. The new engine will be available when the Block 3 aircraft arrives in the 2030s. Block 1 and 2 aircraft will also be able to use the South Korean engines. Jet fighters wear out several engines during their usual 30-40 years of service. The current engine for the KF-21 is the American GE F414, which is built under license in South Korea. The South Korean engine will be built by Hanwha.
The KF-21 project began in 2010. South Korea sought nations willing to cooperate in developing the new fighter by providing some of the money needed to complete the program and then purchase some of the fighters. Indonesia agreed to such a deal but proved to be an unreliable partner. Indonesia did not provide the promised funding and then Indonesian engineers involved with the project were caught trying to steal the jet fighter technology South Korea had already developed. The Indonesian government insists it knew nothing about the attempted technology theft and that it would catch up on missed payments it promised in order to become a 20 percent partner in KF-21 development. Indonesia was unable to provide the money, more than a billion dollars, to retain a 20 percent stake in the project. Instead, Indonesia paid $439 million for a 7.5 percent stake in the project and lower priority in receiving KF-21s.
Poland offered to be a development and production partner. Poland can afford this and has its own industrial base that is capable of co-producing KF-21s. Poland plans to join the program this year, after development of the Block 1 model of the KF-21 is complete and work begins on the Block 2 model. The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia are interested in acquiring KF-21s.
KF-21 development began in 2011 and the first KF-21 test flight was in 2022. Development costs of the KF-21 were over $8 billion and each aircraft costs $65 million to build. That is a competitive price for a modern jet fighter.
This all began in 2001 when South Korea announced the KF-X advanced multirole jet fighter project. South Korea wanted to develop and manufacture a modern jet fighter to replace its 167 F-16s, 19 F-4s that were retired in 2024, and 80 F-5s. The 59 F-15K fighter-bombers will remain in service until about 2030. In addition to KF-21s, South Korea already has 39 F-35s, with 20 more on order. The F-16s will be gradually replaced by F-35s and KF-21s.
The preliminary KF-21 design was completed in 2018 and approved in 2019. In 2022 six KF-21 prototypes made their first flights in 2023. These six prototypes continue to be used for flight tests and performance verification. The prototypes are not identical and are modified to keep up with what the final KF-21 aircraft will be. South Korea spent about $50 million to develop the KF-21, which is a 25 ton, twin-engine, single seat fighter bomber. The engines are American F414 models built in South Korea under license. Up to 7.7 tons of weapons can be carried for surface attack missions. There is an internal 20mm autocannon with 480 rounds of ammunition. Max combat range is 1,000 kilometers while ferry range, carrying only additional fuel pods, is 2,900 kilometers.
FYEO
Murphy's Law: Risky Right To Repair In Combat
January 31, 2026: The Right To Repair/RTR controversy has been going on for over fifty years. Manufacturers have a condition in contracts for sale of their products that buyers can’t repair those, and that only the sellers’ own employees or licensed contractors may do so. On one side are manufacturers who oppose RTR because RTR means they’d sell fewer products and lose the money they make from making repairs to their products and charging whatever they want. RTR also keeps their products in use longer, costing the manufacturer additional sales.
Enforcing RTR is a losing battle. Farmers, for example, cannot wait for authorized repairs to be made during planting or harvesting. The farmers either refuse to buy equipment that bans RTR or ignore it and make the repairs anyway.
For the military, it is possible for manufacturers to enforce RTR bans in peacetime. But in wartime, the troops will repair broken weapons and equipment because it’s a matter of life and death. Ukraine has received billions of dollars’ worth of weapons and equipment from the United States. The manufacturers sent technical representatives to assist the Ukrainians with use of the equipment and enforce any RTR bans. The Ukrainian go along with this most of the time. But if it's a matter of life or death the American tech reps are either moved out of the area for safety reasons, or tech reps who understand the Ukrainian position remain and assist the Ukrainians in making repairs.
RTR problems are one reason Ukraine builds most of the weapons it uses. These items are built to be easily repaired. It’s the same with the Russians and their weapons. The Ukrainians consider RTR restrictions as some crazy American quirk that they have to live with and work around as needed.
Meanwhile American consumers and businesses hurt by RTR rules pressure their politicians to outlaw RTR restrictions. There have been some laws passed to do this, but they face lawsuits from the firms opposing RTR bans. Officially, American military leaders say they will observe RTR bans. In reality, it is understood by all concerned that in a war American troops could and would make their own repairs. U.S. forces have been using 3-D printers and associated equipment to manufacture needed spare parts and make repairs.
RTR bans are seen as unenforceable in wartime and a growing number of peacetime owners of equipment are ignoring RTR bans.
FYEO
Surface Forces : Japanese Mogami Class Warships
January 31, 2026: At the end of 2025, Japan launched the twelfth and last of the Mogami-class frigates. Until 2023 Japan planned to build 24 new FFM Mogami class missile frigates, to be procured in two batches of twelve each. These 3,900-ton FFM ships are an example of successful innovation and speed in implementing new concepts. Newer FFMs have similar capabilities as the Mogami’s but carry more missiles
The Mogami’s take the multi-mission angle seriously. They are equipped for mine-hunting as well as mine-laying. In addition to a 127mm gun, each ship has eight anti-ship and/or cruise missiles in VLS cells. Mogami’s also have eleven SeaRAM anti-aircraft missiles with a range of ten kilometers. Sixteen VLS cells carry larger Chu-SAM anti-aircraft missiles with a range of 50 kilometers as well as cruise missiles.
There are also twelve lightweight anti-submarine torpedoes. There is a ramp in the rear for launching and recovering Unmanned Underwater Vessel drones, Unmanned Surface Vessel drones and Rigid Inflatable Boats, or RIBs for boarding parties. The ship can also lay naval mines. One helicopter is onboard that and that can be replaced by two or more drones.
The Mogami’s are stealthy, with a shape that makes it difficult to detect with radar, and carry active and passive-heat sensing sensors. There are anti-submarine warfare, ASW and mine-hunting sonars. The active radars can also carry out jamming and other EW Electronic Warfare tasks. All these sensors are integrated into a single fire control system. There are two autocannon RWS Remote Weapons Stations. For passive defense there are electronic and chaff decoys to defend against incoming missiles or aircraft.
Top speed is 55 kilometers an hour and crew size is about half, at 90 personnel, what ships this size used to require. There is a lot of automation on the ship, which accounts for the relatively small crew. The Japanese automation works because, as a major civilian shipbuilder, crew automation is a key component of success in world markets.
The Japanese FFM ships were originally designed to be destroyers but, while planning equipment and weapons layout, it was realized that these ships could be multi-mission ships and the designation was changed to frigate. The FFMs are being built in batches, with an initial batch of eight, followed by two or three more batches, each improving on the earlier batch. The first Mogami entered service in 2024.
The new frigates are nearly as heavily armed as destroyers but are smaller and have smaller crews as well. The new ships carry more drones and missiles of various types. Japan still has 36 destroyers in service, which will, by 2030, be joined by at least twenty new frigates. Construction of the new frigates will continue into the 2030s.
Japan pioneered many of the earliest ship automation technologies. The U.S. tried to use automation in their LCS type ship. The first of these entered service in 2008 and had so many problems that the LCS ships began retiring in 2021, before the first Mogami entered service. LCS was designed to replace the Perry class frigates, the last of the post-World War II American warship designs. The first Perry entered service in 1975 and 71 were built by 2oo4. About half the Perry’s are still in service with export customers. Admitting the LCS was a failure, the U.S. Navy selected a European frigate design t0 replace the Perry’s. That didn’t work and was cancelled. The Navy proposes to try a third design because it is inconceivable that they’d build the foreign Mogami design in American shipyards.
FYEO
Air Defense: Chinese Electronic Beam Weapon Against Drones
January 30, 2026: In 2024 China introduced Hurricane 3000, a truck-mounted high-power microwave weapon developed by Norinco to disable individual drone or drone swarms. The drones have their electronics literally fried and rendered useless. The system is carried on a 4x4 military truck similar to the American hummer. The truck carries a generator and additional fuel that enables several thousand pulses of microwave energy in a few minutes. The operator uses an electro-optical sight to designate targets for the weapon. When several Hurricane 3000 vehicles are used to protect a large area, a truck equipped with radar is used to detect approaching droves at ranges of over fifty kilometers. The Chinese military only recently adopted the Hurricane 3000. The United States has a similar system called Leonidas, with a range of two kilometers.
China and other countries have developed and used a large number of similar systems. Some are used unofficially. For example, China denies complaints about foreign helicopter pilots, operating from warships in the South China Sea, being hit with blinding laser beams sent from Chinese ships and island bases. The Chinese laser blinding efforts have been brought up before, about Chinese warships operating off the Somali coast and in nearby Djibouti.
Israel claims a breakthrough in the development of lasers that can be used to intercept mortar shells, UAVs and rockets. While testing under combat conditions hasn’t’ taken place yet, the government thought that the new technology was innovative and effective enough in preliminary tests to put the system into service.
Laser systems like this have been in development elsewhere for a long time, but so far no one has been able to develop a laser with the range and destructive power to perform like the new Israeli system. This new weapon is already being called Laser Dome because it would complement the existing Iron Dome system that uses missiles and an innovative radar/software system that ignores ballistic, rockets or mortar shells whose trajectory would mean hitting unoccupied land where there will be no injuries or serious damage. Most objects fired at Israel end up landing in unoccupied areas and the few objects that are dangerous are intercepted by missiles. This has proved very effective.
Laser Dome is described as using a solid-state electric laser at an effective range of 5 kilometers. This costs several dollars’ worth of electricity per shot. A diesel generator capacitor system could fire once every few seconds for as long as power was available. Laser Dome combines multiple laser beams to obtain a useful amount of laser power at longer ranges. Fire control systems for quickly, accurately and repeatedly aiming a laser have already been developed. The main problem is effectively burning laser beam-created heat at longer ranges to do enough damage to bring down or destroy the incoming warhead.
Israel believes Laser Dome has sufficient burn power but realistic tests are needed to prove it. Several individual systems could operate with each Iron Dome battery to take down targets the laser can reach rather than use the $60,000 missiles. Iron Dome takes care of longer-range targets. This would make Iron Dome a lot cheaper to operate and more effective against mass attacks when dozens of rockets are fired at the same target in a short time.
Some of the tech Laser Dome uses has already been used in other laser weapons. The best example of this is the U.S. Army CLWS Compact Laser Weapon System which is currently only capable of handling drones. CLWS is a laser weapon light enough 2.2 tons to mount on helicopters or hummers and can destroy small drones up to two kilometers distant, while it can disable or destroy the sensors and vidcams on a drone up to seven kilometers away. The CLWS fire control system will automatically track and keep the laser firing on a selected target. It can take up to 15 seconds of laser fire to bring down a drone or destroy its camera. This is the tech that Laser Dome claims to have improved enough to destroy drones with one shot and at longer ranges.
Another example is a U.S. Navy system already installed on one warship for several years and about to be installed on several more. In 2013 the navy announced that it had developed a laser technology capable of being useful in combat. This was not a sudden development but has been going on for most of the last decade. In 2010 the navy successfully tested this new laser weapon, which is actually six solid-state lasers acting in unison, to destroy a small drone. That was the seventh time the navy laser had destroyed a drone. But the LaWS Laser Weapon System was not yet powerful enough to do this at the range, and power level, required to cripple the most dangerous targets, missiles and small boats. The manufacturer convinced the navy that it was just a matter of tweaking the technology to get the needed effectiveness. In 2013 another test was run, under more realistic conditions. LaWS worked, knocking down a larger drone at a longer range. At that point, the navy said it planned to install the system in a warship within the year for even more realistic testing. Those tests took place in 2014 and were successful enough to install LaWS on at least one warship to be used to deliver warnings at low power while at full strength 30 kilowatts
The LaWS laser cannon was mounted on a KINETO Tracking Mount, which is similar, but larger and more accurate, than the mount used by the Phalanx CIWS Close-In Weapons System. The navy laser weapon tests used the radar and tracking system of the CIWS. Back in 2009 CIWS was upgraded so that its sensors could detect speedboats, small aircraft, and naval mines. This was crucial because knocking down drones is not something that the navy needs help with. But the ability to do enough damage to disable boats or missiles that are over two kilometers distant meant the LaWS was worth mounting on a warship.
LaWS may yet prove incapable of working under combat conditions. These included disabling a ScanEagle drone, destroying an RPG rocket and burning out the outboard engine of a speed boat. LaWAS also proved useful in detecting small boats or aerial objects at night and in bad weather. LaWAS worked despite mist and light sandstorms. But in heavier sandstorms performance was much reduced. In 2018 LaWAS was moved to a large amphibious ship for continued testing and two more LaWAS are being built, for delivery and installation on two more ships in 2020. The manufacturer continues to work on extending the range and increasing damage inflicted on targets. LaWAS uses less than a dollars’ worth of power use and is supplied by a diesel generator separate from the ship power supply. In other words, LaWAS is still a work in progress.
LaWS seems to be going in the same direction as Laser Dome with similar but less effective tech. The Israeli laser system is light enough to be mounted in warplanes or large drones. Hopes are once more high that Laser Dome will prove that the long-awaited future tech has finally arrived. Believe it when you see it.
FYEO
Winning: China Wants Vladivostok
January 30, 2026: China seems to expect Russia will pay for Chinese assistance to the Russian war in Ukraine by returning to China territories that Russia had seized in the past. This is another aspect of the growing split between Russia and China. It is Chinese financial support and trade that keeps Russia's wartime economy operational. China encourages dangerous trends in North Korea, Iran, and Russia. This includes North Korean support for the Russia war in Ukraine. Less openly, China supports the religious dictatorship in Iran. China demands much from Russia for these favors, including aspects of Russian military technology China does not already possess.
China is also actively involved in seizing control over portions of the Western Pacific, South China Sea, and the Sea of Japan. China has warships, naval aviation, and a growing number of aircraft carriers, along with their escorts of frigates and destroyers. China currently has more warships than the United States. Worse, all Chinese warships are operating off the coast of China while the U.S. Navy is dispersed worldwide, in the North Atlantic, Mediterranean, Red Sea and Indian Ocean as well as the current crisis off in the South China Sea.
These aggressive operations aid Russia, and China demands Russian help improving Chinese submarines. China has already demanded and received much additional military technology from Russia. China is having more difficulty recovering Russian territories on the Pacific coast that border China. This includes the Russian city and port of Vladivostok. More than a hundred years ago, Russia f0rced a weakened China to surrender most of Manchuria and what eventually became the city and port of Vladivostok. For over a thousand years this area had been occupied by Chinese, who called the largest city Yongmingcheng, H ǎ ishēnw ǎ i or Hai Shen Wai depending on who was ruling that region of China.
Vladivostok also served as a naval base for Russian warships in the Pacific. Russia wants to hold onto Vladivostok because it is the major Russian possession on the Pacific coast. Despite that, if China applies enough pressure Russia might be persuaded to part with Vladivostok and avoid a nuclear war with China.
Currently Russian military forces are weak. The Russian army is largely committed to the war in Ukraine and the Russian fleet is split between northwestern Russia and the Northern Fleet, the Baltic Sea and the Baltic Fleet, the Black Sea and the Black Sea Fleet, the Caspian Sea flotilla, and the Pacific Fleet. The Russian Navy has 180 major warships including corvettes, destroyers, cruisers, an aircraft carrier and 79 submarines. There are also over a hundred smaller auxiliaries including patrol boats, minesweepers, landing ships, transports as well as aircraft for maritime patrol and naval base defense.
China and Russia negotiated an agreement in 2008 that immediately returned to China 18,000 hectares of uninhabited territory near the Pacific Coast. Chinese maps still show much larger inhabited Russian territories as regions claimed by China. This includes Vladivostok. Russia sees this as a concession too far. If China strongly insists while Russia remains militarily weak and unwilling to wage a nuclear war with China over the issue, the Chinese demands may be met.
Russia also has to keep in mind how forcefully China took back Hong Kong from the British. According to several treaties between China and Britain, Hong Kong was returned to China in 1997. This was after 156 years of British rule that brought security and much prosperity to the territory. British rule spared Hong Kong from all the civil wars and general mayhem taking place in China. During World War II, Hong Kong was occupied by Japanese troops from late 1941 to August 1945. After the war Hong Kong quickly recovered economically. Since Hong Kong returned to Chinese control in 1997, the area has become a special economic zone that, despite some meddling by corrupt Chinese officials, has prospered. China expects that the same pattern would occur if they got Vladivostok back.
So far, the Russians are not as willing to hand over Vladivostok as the British were with Hong Kong. China may provide Russia with an offer they can’t refuse in order to get Vladivostok back. Such a demand risks nuclear war, but China believes Russia won’t risk it. Not only does China have a growing number of ballistic missiles in silos aimed at Russia, but larger, more modern, and reliable conventional forces. Even before Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, this was the case. With the enormous losses Russia has suffered in Ukraine, the disparity between Russian and Chinese conventional forces is even greater. Chinese conventional forces aren’t going to advance on Moscow and St Petersburg. Instead, the Chinese army is capable of taking Russian Pacific Coast territories.
Russia might threaten nuclear war over this, but the Chinese ground forces can quickly overwhelm the depleted, by troops sent to Ukraine, Russian forces on the Pacific coast and then demand peace talks. Russia has already threatened NATO countries with nuclear attack over Ukraine, making similar threats to China means Russia could find itself confronted by the prospect of a two-front war that Russia is incapable of winning.
China is taking advantage of Russian weakness and is apparently going to get away with it.
FYEO
Artillery: India Develops First 155mm Ramjet Projectile
January 29, 2026: India recently announced that it had developed a 155mm Ramjet 155mm artillery shell. A ramjet is an air-breathing engine that requires no compressor or turbine because the high speed of the shell once it leaves the barrel provides all the start-up speed the ramjet requires. With the ramjet, 155mm shells travel up to 50 percent farther. Most 155mm shells have a range of 30-40 kilometers. With the ramjet 155mm shells can have a range of up to 60 kilometers. Longer range means less accuracy, unless the shell is fitted with GPS guidance, this can be acquired by using a fuze equipped with the GPS guidance and control technology. India has also developed a method for retrofitting conventional shells with the ramjet technology. South Africa began developing a ramjet shell 25 years ago. The South African firm Rheinmetall Denel Munition continues to manufacture and export these shells to NATO and other countries.
Ramjet shell technology was first developed in the 1950s. It took decades before the ramjet components became more capable and cheaper to make them practical. A collaboration between an American and a Norwegian firm has developed a guided 155mm ramjet shell with a range of 70 kilometers. This shell can be used to hit moving targets. The most recent version of this shell has a range of 150 kilometers.
Twenty five years ago the US planned to build a ramjet powered version of AMRAAM. Since ramjets do not need to carry oxidizer for their rocket motors but get oxygen from the atmosphere, they can carry more fuel and have more range. The United States abandoned this concept because a ramjet-powered missile would be larger and would cut the war load of an F-22, which must carry its missiles internally to remain stealthy, from six missiles to four.
FYEO
Logistics: Sweden Aids Russia in Ukraine
January 29, 2026: Over twenty years ago, Russia and Sweden signed a trade agreement that included coil bearings used in the axles and wheels of railroad cars. Railroad coil bearings are more expensive than the ball bearings formerly used for rail car axles, but are so much more durable, reliable and cheaper to install, maintain and replace that overall lifetime purchase and operation of them is at least 10% cheaper.
Russia could not manufacture its own railroad coil bearings because it could not manufacture the technologically sophisticated high-alloy steels those required. This agreement included sale of Swedish-manufactured railroad coil bearings and some of the necessary special high-alloy steels to Russia, and licensed Swedish computer programs for Russia to assemble its own railroad coil bearings. Russia then stopped training new personnel to pack, install and maintain the old-style ball bearings it was then using, and let them gradually age out of the work force as more and more of its rail cars were converted to coil bearings. Germany and some other countries also manufacture railroad coil bearings, and Germany did sell those to Russia among others.
When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Sweden joined the nations imposing economic sanctions on Russia, and those included assembled coil bearings, the high quality alloys those required, and the computer programs Russian factories required to assemble their own. Sweden issued a kill code to wipe out the coil bearing software in Russia, and terminated all coil-bearing related exports to Russia. So did all the other countries which sold them to Russia. That put Russia in a world of hurt as most of its rail car & engine fleet had converted to coil bearings, while it no longer produced enough sufficient quality ball bearings for railroad cars. Plus it no longer had enough trained personnel to install and maintain those.
Basically the Russian railroad system was on borrowed time from the onset of sanctions for its invasion of Ukraine. Railroad coil bearings do wear out. Russia’s entire railroad system would have begun collapsing last year and its ability to continue the war would probably be over now.
But in early 2023 Sweden quietly resumed exports of railroad coil bearings to Russia. Russia’s rail system has many problems, but lack of coil bearings isn’t one of them. China produces its own rail axle coil bearings, but those aren’t anywhere near as good as Western ones, and China hasn’t sold any to Russia because of the sanctions.
During World War II Sweden, while technically neutral and anti-Nazi, did trade with the Germans. Exports included metals and ball bearings essential to the German war effort. Meanwhile, Sweden has continued to prepare for a possible Russian attack.
Eight years ago, for the first time since 1961 Sweden sent to all 4.7 million households a brochure describing what they should do in the event of war as in a Russian invasion. Reflecting the sharp political differences on the possibility of war, the brochure will also cover similar actions Swedes should take if the catastrophe is some aspect of the Climate Change threat or a massive hacker or terror attack.
Neighbors of Sweden have played down Climate Change, hackers and terrorists and concentrated on the Russian threat. Across the Baltic Sea NATO members Lithuania and Latvia had issued similar publications to all their citizens. Lithuania led the way when, in late 2016, when a 75 page manual on how to survive another Russian occupation appeared. What all citizens received was called Prepare to Survive Emergencies and War. Lithuania has plenty of experience with being invaded and occupied by Russia and wants to remind its citizens what works, especially now that Lithuania has a mutual defense treaty with the United States and all other NATO members operates not fast enough to keep the Russians out. The prepare to survive guide provides tips on how to behave when dealing with the invader while also spying on the occupation force. The manual provided illustrations and description of most Russian weapons and details of how the Russians use secret police, local informants and special operations troops to try and control an occupied population. The manual also pointed out that Russia would send in agents or activate ones it has already recruited before an invasion and provides tips on how to detect the presence of these agents, especially in preparation for an imminent invasion.
FYEO
Steve, I did mention “In a perfect world.”
The world, as it is today, is very far from perfect.
Once again, Jeff, we are in full agreement.
"Once again, Jeff, we are in full agreement."
-Jessica Orsins
To quote Bruce Banner from Age of Ultron, "Ooh, it's definitely the end times!"
Oh, it has happened before.
Not often, I will grant you!
But there are universal truths or some will call them values, that many can agree with, even in the presence of minor disagreement of policy or other issues.
As SVC pointed out (not in so many words…) responsible journalism has become increasingly rare in various media (tv, radio, cable, internet etc…)
One thing that we all need to be aware of, is that there seems to be a transition from most people getting their news from one of the four big networks (CBS, ABC, NBC, PBS) to a variety of sources (newspapers, cable channels, various internet channels (o’riellly, blaze, fox, new york times, Bloomberg etc. and perhaps a hundred more of various factions.))
I suspect that a fair lot of that comes down to the 24-hour news cycle.
Long Ago, in the Before Time, there was a half-hour local news show, either immediately preceding or following a half-hour network news show; a late-night local news show often followed. Sunday mornings were the repository of somewhat longer network news shows, with a bit more focus on analysis, and perhaps - depending on the network - an hour-long evening show.
Then came cable news channels. Suddenly, there was a need to fill time around the clock with news...and there simply wasn't enough actual news to do so. So CNN, FoxNews, and the like turned increasingly to analysis, and from there to opinion. Rather than a straight delivery of the news, these transitioned into what amounted to entertainment, tailored to pull in certain markets of viewers.
Meanwhile, the old Fairness Doctrine was jettisoned, allowing fully partisan talk radio to consume most of the AM dial. The cable networks, not being broadcast affairs, were already immune to the Fairness Doctrine, and already starting to take advantage of that immunity.
The traditional old evening network news shows wound up subservient to their round-the-clock cable iterations, and peddling (albeit in very short form) the same newly built-in biases.
Oh, and that local news? Old limits on the number of stations owned by a given company were considerably broadened, the result being a tiny handful of firms owning the vast majority of local stations, and dictating policy (and in many instances, scripts) to those local stations...again, with the built-in biases of the companies (Sinclair and Nexstar being the two largest).
Procurement: Creating a European Defense Industry
February 4, 2026: For more than a decade European NATO nations have been depending more on locally developed weapons and munitions rather than obtaining them from the United States. The war in Ukraine encouraged this trend because European nations now realize that they have a very real threat next door with Russia. The Americans are concentrating on how to deal with growing Chinese aggression in the Pacific.
The Result is NATO fending for itself more than any time in the past. For example, Germany is currently building the first of six F126 frigates. These will be the largest warships to serve in the German navy since World War II. The first of the six 10,000-ton F126s will enter service in 2028. Each ship will cost about $1.5 billion. These frigates are 177 meters long and have a top speed of about 50 kilometers an hour. Economical cruising speed is 21 kilometers an hour. Max range is 7,400 kilometers at cruising speed. Endurance is 21 days before refueling and resupply is needed. The crew of 114 can be augmented by 84 additional specialist personnel, including special operations troops. There is a full range of electronics including surface and air search radars as well as fire control radar and sonar for detecting and tracking submarines. Radios include one that uses a satellite link. There are several decoy systems to disrupt the guidance systems on incoming missiles. If that doesn’t work, there are several anti-missiles systems using autocannon and missiles. There are also VLS cells for up to 64 anti-aircraft missiles. Eight NSM anti-ship and land attack missiles are carried. There are also two 27mm autocannon and four 12.7 machine-guns. There are also non-lethal water cannons and long range acoustic devices to send warnings to small boats approaching the frigate. Two helicopters and one UAV are carried along with a hangar to hold all of them. The F126 is designed to be continuously deployed for two years without need for major maintenance. This means a F126 can operate for 5,000 hours a year, which means 57 percent of 365 days in a year. Warships tend to spend a lot of time idle in port.
While the F126 was built for combat, its predecessor, the F125 frigates, also contained many innovations. Unfortunately, that resulted in an unexpected and unwanted distinction; the first ship of the class, the Baden-Württemberg, was rejected by the navy after failing to perform during sea trials. The builder quickly addressed the most serious problems, which were all software related. The Baden-Württemberg finally entered service in 2018.
The Baden-Württemberg did not begin a year of sea trials until the end of 2016. This produced a growing list of problems the builders hustled to fix while also dealing with some of the defects. The list of problems was too long, and the navy refused to accept, or commission, the Baden-Württemberg into service. While this was embarrassing, it was also the right thing to do because otherwise the problems would have become a major scandal.
Not all the problems were made public, if only because some involved new tech that was highly classified. It was known that a new computerized command and control software system for the CIC combat information center had an unacceptable number of bugs as did some of the other software for automating operation of the ship and making possible a smaller, by about 50 percent, crew than would normally be needed. The new radar system and other sensors had problems as did the damage control system. All these are easily fixed. There was also a perceptible 1.3 degree list to starboard, which has since been fixed.
The four F125 frigates displace 7,200 tons each. This is larger than some destroyers, but it's become unfashionable in Europe to call a warship a destroyer. Those attitudes played a role in the failure of the Baden-Württemberg. It was no secret that attracting the best engineering and design talent to warship construction has been difficult. Since the Cold War ended in 1991 and Germany was reunited, it became fashionable to downplay defense in general and working in the military or defense industries became less popular. Even though these industries remained major employers and Germany continued to export innovative warship designs, the F125s were more innovative than any surface warship Germany had put into service during the last century.
European firms have long been producing world-class tanks, artillery, combat aircraft and electronic systems, but depended on the United States for more complex systems. Now European manufacturers are seeking to compete with the American products in all categories.
Over the last four years of war in Ukraine, NATO countries have supplied about $85 billion a year in military and commercial assistance. Initially most of this aid came from the United States. Gradually European nations expanded their own arms production and assisted Ukrainian arms producers in rebuilding local armaments facilities. This meant more of the military aid was coming from European countries and less from the United States. Ukraine has long been a major arms producer, but the Russians have destroyed some of these arms production operations since the 2022 invasion.
During the first few months of the Russian invasion Ukrainian producers supplied their military with the needed weapons and munitions. Russia responded while destroying many of those arms manufacturing facilities with missiles and airstrikes. By 2023 most of the arms and munitions were imported from the United States and NATO countries. European nations believe that expanding their own arms industries improves their ability to deter any future aggression from Russia.
Eleven years ago, Ukraine hampered Russian arms production by halting shipments of vital components for Russian helicopters and warships. Although only 4.4 percent of Russian imports were from Ukraine, some of these items were crucial for Russian weapons producers and Russian efforts to modernize their armed forces.
The links between production facilities concentrated in Ukraine dates back to when Ukraine was a region of the Soviet Union. When the Soviet Union collapsed into fourteen new nations in 1991, Ukraine and its arms industry were not part of the new Russian Federation. This meant Russia was now dependent on Ukraine for key items like components for aircraft, missiles, ICBMs and warship engines.
The largest and most productive Ukrainian defense manufacturer was Motor Sich which produces engines for helicopters. Many of the Soviet era shipyards were located in the Crimean Peninsula. After 1991 Crimea belonged to Ukraine. Russia refused to let Ukraine take possession of Crimea and grabbed it back in 2014. Russian shipyards still operate in Crimea although these facilities have been damaged by persistent Ukrainian attacks, and Crimean ports are avoided by Russian shipping due to UAV attacks.
For years Russia has been building factories locally to reduce dependence on those located in Ukraine and Crimea. The economic sanctions imposed on Russia after they invaded Ukraine in 2022 further complicated Russian plans to rebuild their arms industries. Russia has managed to maintain defense production, but quality and quantity have suffered. Russian producers depended on key components imported from Western Europe. The sanctions cut off that source and Russia has tried to replace it with manufacturers in China and a few other countries. They were partially successful, but Russian defense production will not recover completely until the war in Ukraine is over.
FYEO
Winning: Ukraine Shows How Drone Warfare is Done
February 4, 2026: One notable side effect of the Ukraine War is the international impact of the use, and abuse of drones. Ukrainian soldiers and civilians invented drone warfare and continue improving drone technology, tactics and techniques. The Ukrainian army also has an International Legion of foreign volunteers who fight for Ukraine. So far more than 20,000 foreigners have served in the Legion, and most have survived to return home with battlefield experience in the use of drones. Some of these men sold their expertise to criminal organizations. Decades before the Ukraine War, criminals were using earlier, less versatile drones for smuggling surveillance and occasional attacks on the police or rival gangs, Various drug cartels in Mexico and South America quickly and enthusiastically adapted to the Ukrainian way of using drones. Many of the volunteers for the International Legion were from South America and found their drone knowledge a lucrative career for legal and illegal organizations.
The NATO countries that have been supporting Ukraine since 2014 send military and civilian personnel to Ukraine or pay to have Ukrainian drone experts come to them. Some NATO countries have diplomatic or military personnel working with the Ukrainians to keep current with Ukrainian drone developments. For example, one of last year’s more interesting developments was the use of AI/Artificial Intelligence for drone targeting systems. The AI drone contains a targeting system that finds targets. The AI drone operator confirms which targets are real and once a target is confirmed the AI targeting system needs no further communication with anyone. It is resistant to all forms of jamming.
Modern warfare has been radically changed by the introduction of First Person View/FPV drones. These drones are an omnipresent aerial threat to armored vehicles and infantry on foot. Each FPV drone costs less than a thousand dollars. Operators use the video camera on the drone to see what is below and find targets. Armed FPV operators are several kilometers away when deciding when their FPV drones will drop explosives on an armored vehicle, which has thinner armor on top, or infantry in the open or in trenches. To do so, the drone operators often operate in pairs, with one flying behind the other and concentrating on the big picture while seeking a likely target. When such a target is found by the reconnaissance drone, the armed drone is directed to the target. The two FPV drone operators are usually in the same room or tent and can take control of new drones, which are lined up and brought outside for launch when needed. The reconnaissance drones are often unarmed so they can spend more time in the air to seek a target.
The Ukrainians developed the FPV drone in 2022, when only a few FPV drone attacks were recorded. The Ukrainian Army was the first to appreciate the potential of FPV drones. By the summer of 2023, the Russian Army also began to use FPV drones in greater numbers. Since then, the number of FPV drone attacks has grown exponentially on both sides. Only twelve percent of those attacks led to the destruction of the target, which could be a vehicle or group of infantry or even a sniper who was firing through a window from inside a building. In this case, the armed FPV drone would fly through the window and explode in the room the sniper was in. The only defense from this was having a nearby open door the sniper could run to or dive through as the FPV drone approached. Sometimes that isn’t possible because the armed FPV drone is coming down from above the window and then in. You don’t see those coming until it’s too late.
Nearly five million drones are being built this year. The total for 2024 was 1.5 million drones. There have been problems. Chinese component producers are having a hard time keeping up, and, last year, to assist the Russians, China halted sending drone components to Ukraine. Suppliers in Europe, the United States, and elsewhere were quickly found. At least 70 percent of Ukrainian drones are built entirely in Ukraine, and the rest from imported parts or whole assemblies. Some Ukrainian firms have improvised by using plywood and similar materials for their drones. For the FPV First Person View drones, cheaper is better if the drone can hit its first and only target. Most Ukrainian drones are FPV models, which are considered a form of ammunition.
Both sides now use the FPV drones, but there are substantial differences in how the FPV drones are put to work in combat. The Ukrainians seek out high-value targets like armored vehicles, electronic warfare equipment, anti-aircraft systems, and storage sites for munitions or other supplies. Russian trucks carrying supplies are another prime target.\
FYEO
Attrition: What the War in Ukraine Cost Russia
February 3, 2026: Russia’s war in Ukraine has now gone on longer than the World War II war with Germany. The current war has cost Russia 1.4 million men killed, disabled or missing. Only a few hundred civilians have become casualties. During World War II, at least 26 million soldiers and civilians died. That was 13.7 percent of the 1941 population.
The Ukraine war has been going on since 2014, when Russia occupied the Crimean Peninsula and portions of two provinces in eastern Ukraine. Until 2021, the war was low key, with about 50,000 Russian and Ukrainian soldiers and civilians killed or wounded. That’s about 7,000 casualties a year. After Russia invaded Ukraine itself in 2022 the casualties and equipment losses leaped. So far Russia has lost 1.2 million men dead, disabled or missing while Ukraine has lost about half a million dead, wounded, missing and captured. The Russian missile and drone attacks on cities and towns have killed or wounded over 50,000 civilians. Similar Ukrainian attacks on Russia have killed or wounded about 1,800 Russian civilians.
Russia has suffered far heavier weapon and equipment losses since 2022. These include 47,000 armored vehicles, 24 percent of them tanks. Other losses included 97,000 drones, 37,000 artillery, rocket launchers and mortars, 1,300 air defense systems, 72,000 vehicles, 435 aircraft, 350 helicopters, 28 ships and boats and three submarines. Similar Ukrainian losses have been about 45 percent of the Russian losses.
Russia has suffered other losses. Since 2022 Russia has been subject to an increasing number of economic sanctions. These have made it more difficult to obtain components to manufacture weapons and munitions. North Korea and Iran supplied munitions, including drones and missiles. China has helped by supplying many of the components Russia formerly obtained from Western suppliers.
China was unwilling to help some more fundamental Russian economic problems. Four years of war, sanctions and a transformation from a peacetime to a wartime economy that has gradually collapsed under the weight of the sanctions, labor shortages and lower oil prices. The labor shortages were caused by over two million Russian men becoming casualties in Ukraine or leaving the country to avoid the war. The sanctions meant it was difficult or sometimes impossible to obtain replacement carts for factories. China did not make some of the items needed or Russia could not afford to buy what China did have available. China, unlike most countries, does not give anything away. They will make loans to credit worthy nations. Wartime Russia is not considered eligible for Chinese loans.
Another problem that has grown into a crisis is civilian unrest because of the war. Until late 2025 most Russians supported the war. Over the last six months that support has morphed into growing protests and passive resistance to the war effort. If this problem is not tended to, by ending the war, it will grow into a major political and economic problem. This is already visible with the collapse of recruiting efforts. Few Russian men are willing to sign up for military service. Worse, the government has run out of cash to pay large signing bonuses. Even if those large bonuses were still available, few Russian men would join the military.
Currently the 700,000 Russian soldiers in Ukraine have had to reduce their offensive activities and concentrate on minimizing losses to maintain enough troops to man the 1,200 kilometer-long front line. Meanwhile the Ukrainians, who continue to be supplied with military and economic aid by NATO countries, are on the offensive. Ukraine is also producing nearly 80 percent of the weapons and munitions it needs and receiving billions of dollars’ worth of foreign investments in Ukrainian industries. Ukraine has the most successful experience in modern warfare and NATO nations are eager to learn what the Ukrainians know.
With Russian forces now on the defensive, Vladimir Putin has to decide how long he can avoid making peace on Ukrainian terms before he has critical problems with the Russian population.
FYEO