One factor that we have not discussed recently is the religious angle.

A quick Google inquiry resulted in this:

Quote:” According to reports from 2023 and early 2026, a significant number of mosques in Iran have closed, with officials estimating that 50,000 out of roughly 75,000 mosques (about 66% to 70%) are currently closed or inactive.
ایران اینترنشنال
ایران اینترنشنال
+2
This leaves approximately 25,000 mosques still open, though many of these may not hold regular daily services.
Key Findings on Mosque Closures in Iran:
Low Attendance and Closures: As of late 2023, senior Iranian clerics, including Mohammad Abolghassem Doulabi (an official associated with the president's office), confirmed that 50,000 mosques had closed their doors due to a drastic drop in attendance, driven by widespread disinterest in the state-sponsored version of Islam.
Lack of Prayer Leaders: Reports indicate that even among the mosques that are technically open, nearly 39,000 to 50,000 lack a prayer leader, further reducing their functionality.
Active vs. Inactive: Congregational prayers are only held regularly in roughly 30.6% of Iran's mosques, with 16% holding no services at all, and another 12.5% only opening during major religious events like Ramadan or Muharram.
Contextual Factors: The closures are attributed to a combination of economic hardship, government oppression, and a shift away from traditional religious practices among the population.
Religious Landscape Shift: Despite the closure of thousands of mosques, some reports suggest a growing interest in Christianity in the country.
All Arab News
All Arab News
+5
These figures highlight a major decline in mosque attendance across Iran, causing concern among religious authorities. ”

For a nation such as Iran, the decline in Islamic worship undermines the government’s legitimacy.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Sunday, March 01, 2026 - 12:35 pm: Edit

The Israeli operation is called Roaring Lion.
Lions are a big symbol in Israel, equivalent to the eagle in the US.
This dates back to the Lion of Judah.

Demonstrations by Iran exiles in at least a dozen countries are supporting the US.

Four B2 bombers have pounded Iranian missile bases with racks of 2000 pound bombs targeting caves where the launchers hide.

So far, Iran has fired 135 missiles and 209 drones at UAE,
66 missiles at Qatar, and 45 missiles at Bahrain.

Israeli planes have been practicing tactics to destroy mobile missile launchers and seem to be having some success.

I am sure there would not have been a war if Iran had accepted the U S terms. Given the radical religious basis for Iran’s policies, that had about as much chance as the U S giving NY mayor Mandami control of all US government policy.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Sunday, March 01, 2026 - 12:44 pm: Edit

The demonstrators at the US embassy in Pakistan are Shiites.

The CIA detected the meeting of Iranian leaders that changed the attack schedule, not Israeli intelligence. It seems it was the US that told Israel the schedule was changing, not Israel which asked the US to change it.

Israel has now called up 100,000 reservists.

Iran says it wants to talk, but wants the US to halt attacks so talks can begin. The US says the attacks will continue and talks will happen eventually, and Iran must stop its own attacks or the US will accelerate attacks.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Sunday, March 01, 2026 - 01:05 pm: Edit

The US says it has sunk nine Iranian warships and will sink the rest. It might, in my own view, be impossible to sink all of the smaller ones. Do we have to sink every fishing boat?

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Sunday, March 01, 2026 - 01:10 pm: Edit

The mass shooter in Austin, Texas had on an Iranian flag t-shirt, a sweatshirt that said “property of Allah,” and screamed Allah Akbar as he fired. Remember that Austin is not part of Texas but is some mysterious foreign enclave that showed up a few years ago. Texas is still trying to figure out how this foreign enclave appeared. The leading theory involves a wormhole from a different universe.

Iran is trying to mine the Strait of Hormuz but has been blocked, so far, by US naval action.

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Sunday, March 01, 2026 - 03:02 pm: Edit

Steve, perhaps we could spare some of the fishing boats, but recommend maximum effort to destroy the IIRG attack boats.

Small, fast, armed with machine guns and rumored to be packed with high explosives for suicide attacks.

We do not need a repeat of what happened to theU.S.S. Cole.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Sunday, March 01, 2026 - 03:43 pm: Edit

Iranian naval order of battle
3 kilo ocean going submarines
1 besat ocean going submarine
2 coastal submarines
25 small submarines (2 torpedo tubes, no reloads)
3 Alvand frigates, UK built
6 local copies of Alvan, only two or three complete
1 large frigate under construction
3 old corvettes
26 missile boats
3 large patrol boats with missile
2 smaller patrol boats
92 really small patrol boats, 3 man crews
80 inshore patrol boats, 15 man crews
14 hovercraft
74 fast attack boats
2 mine layers
5 minesweepers
25 landing craft
25 cargo ships

Revolutionary Guards
10 missile boats
20 torpedo boats
1500 assorted naval craft, such as boghammer and zodiac

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Sunday, March 01, 2026 - 05:10 pm: Edit

So, about regime change in Iran......

I've an Iranian coworker - that is to say, someone who emigrated from Iran about a decade back. We talked late last week, given the various threats levied by the president (and the pretty much telegraphed news that a large-scale strike would be imminent), and I asked him about whether taking down much of the Iranian leadership would bring about a revolution.

What he said was this:

A lot of Iranians are deeply unhappy with their regime. They aren't keen on the "Supreme Leader" structure that gives the clerics a veto over their elected president and legislature. They don't like the restrictions that have been placed on them in the name of ideological purity. They resent the shortages of just about everything.

But - and this is a bit "but" - they dislike and distrust the United States on a level that is difficult to comprehend. They have generational anger over the CIA coup that stuck them with Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi and his murderous secret police for a quarter of a century, and how the U.S. propped the Shah up until the bitter end. They despise U.S. involvement in - and fomentation of - the various wars in the Middle East. They see the U.S. as thoroughly untrustworthy after the Reagan administration sold weapons to both sides in the Iran-Iraq War. They're insulted by what they see as U.S. paternalism in Middle Eastern affairs. And they've seen what happens when the U.S. effects the overthrow of a regime and how we generally fail to win the peace after we win the war, with chaos as the usual result.

Given a choice of their regime or a U.S. ultimatum, most Iranians* will line up behind their regime. Given an attack by the U.S., most Iranians* will rally around their regime.

*This does not include Iranian expats, who tend to cheer on any attack on the Iranian regime in much the same way that Florida's Cubano community cheered on any attack on the Castros.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Sunday, March 01, 2026 - 06:18 pm: Edit

The opinions of Iranian expats, including a few I know and others I know of, are all over the map. There is a thick file of these guys I have read a decade ago.

All hate the clerics.

Many hate the shah. Some liked the shah and support the return of his son. Some hate the US for installing the shah in power, others like the US for installing the shah and removing Mosadeq.

Some regard Mosadeq as the ultimate democrat, others regard him as a Soviet puppet. There is plenty of evidence to prove the Russians backed him, not enough to prove they controlled him.

Most regard the original shah, father of “the shah,” as a puppet of Nazi Germany. Yeah, this mess goes that far back.

Some Iranians think Biden and Obama left them hanging when a little US effort might have removed the Ayatollahs. Others are Leary of US support turning into US control.

The fact that Jessica’s buddy just happens to support Jessica’s position says more about who she hangs out with than what “the Iranian people” think. My Iranian friends support the “we want US help to overthrow the ayatollahs” which says more about the Tea Party gang I hang with than it says about what the “Iranian people” think.

In short, what one random Iranian expat says or thinks is about as valid as what one random American or one random Brit thinks. Fox has Iranian contributors with very different views from the Iranian contributors on CNN, which says a lot about their hiring practices.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Sunday, March 01, 2026 - 06:31 pm: Edit

I recall in engineering school and my engineering career meeting a lot of Iranians who came to the US to study engineering or work as engineers.

Before the shah fell, I met dozens of Iranians only one or two of whom did not hate the shah.

Then the shah fell.

Suddenly, the hate-the-Shah bunch all disappeared, presumably the went home. At the same time, lots of newly arrived Iranians began preaching the “you Americans need to overthrow the Ayatollahs for us and reinstate the shah.”

Then there were the Iranian Kurds, who hated both and wanted the US to give them their own country. Another story there.

The wind blows both ways. Pazuzu one direction, Lamashtu the other direction. You might want to stay inside.

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Sunday, March 01, 2026 - 06:42 pm: Edit

To be clear: my coworker isn't my "buddy", or someone I "hang around with". He's simply a coworker, and I opted to engage him in conversation on this topic.

While getting accurate polling out of Iran is difficult, given the circumstances, the best efforts at doing so have put the percentage of Iranians who would vote against the Islamic Republic if they had the option at 79%...and the percentage that are opposed to the U.S. gov't* at 86%.

*Note that this pertains to attitudes about the U.S. government, not Americans as a whole; Iranians have a considerably better feeling about Americans outside of the scope of our gov't.

By A David Merritt (Adm) on Sunday, March 01, 2026 - 07:40 pm: Edit

My great Uncle worked in Iran in the oil industry, doing essentially what Mike Grafton does in the 1960s.

My roommate in college was the son of an embassy guard in Tehran in 1979, the roommate and his mother were evacuated, his father was a hostage.

The stories I have from both sources indicate that the Shah, and Mosadeq had supporters, and a significant part of the population saw the Shah, and Mosadeq, as puppets of the US, or USSR, and preferred local government. This is why they liked the Ayatollahs at first. Finding out that they were more oppressive than their predecessors has led to the current mess, internally.

The big question now, is will they simply put more local authoritarians in power, be taken under the US, Russian, or China's wing to become an ally to one of those powers, or an outside chance, Europe's.

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Sunday, March 01, 2026 - 07:49 pm: Edit

Reza Pahlavi - eldest son of the former Shah - is openly lobbying the White House to install him as the leader of Iran. That would go over about as well as a neutronium balloon.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, March 02, 2026 - 12:44 am: Edit

I don't trust any polling out of Iran, but I agree that Prince Pahlavi isn't going to be the way forward. As for opposed to the US, that is not consistent with other data, none of that data can be relied upon for anything. In the end, we can but hope that Iran, for the first time since 1930, picks it's own government, but Alas, democracy is not something Arabs or Iranians have ever managed very well or very long. As for Jessica's "coworker" I have to consider the source. Jessica has never posted anything even remotely unbiased and most of the statistics cannot be verified.

By Charles Gray (Cgray45) on Monday, March 02, 2026 - 02:30 am: Edit

My bet is that the main desire is to find someone who can be more or less a figurehead to let the opposition use, but who everyone knows isn't going to have any real power going forward.

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Monday, March 02, 2026 - 02:34 am: Edit

Well, again not proof of anything - a friend posted a message on a Facebook from an Iranian he knew.

Long Story Short.

He didn't like the Shah.
He accepted the Islamic Republic - and at times they have been more moderate that other Islamic Nations.... (so there has been good and bad there) - but it's now been more bad than good - so a change was needed.

He was really worried what a post 'Islamic Republic' will look like.

Based on what the West did in Iraq, Adganistan and Lbyia - the US/Israel will easy win the War - but winning the peace (for the defeated nation) doesn't seem to happen.

"Job done - lets go home....."

The ability to rebuild nations (like the US did in Europe and Japan) post WW2 is perhaps the biggest thing the US has given the world? Long Term/Huge Levels of Supprt/a clear demarcation between the Guilty (who are punished) and the innocent (who are indirectly forgiven). But post Marshall Plan, it hasn't been repeated.

About the only 'valid' thing universal - is that if your nation is attacked, your more likely to want to help to defend it? "He was a B@stard - but he was our B@stard"

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, March 02, 2026 - 03:27 am: Edit

I don't think the US is in the mood for nation building any more.We'll offer some trade deals with the new democratic regime (when there is one) and that's as far as Trump will go. The idea of US troops spending 20 years in Iran trying to build democracy is a pathway to failure and Trump knows it.

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Monday, March 02, 2026 - 05:20 am: Edit

'Several' US planes have been reported to have 'crashed' in Kuwait.

One video shows what is said to a F15 spiraling downwards, very slowly.

No deaths have been repoted though.

About the best I have found out is : -
"It was not known whether the jet was shot down by an Iranian missile, hit by friendly American air defence rockets or suffered a technical malfunction.

Kuwait’s defence ministry claimed on Monday that “several” American warplanes had crashed and that all crew members survived."

Very wierd in how it is being reported??

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Monday, March 02, 2026 - 05:24 am: Edit

Between the decapitation of the Iranian government and the manmade fresh water crisis in Iran, there is going to be a lot of confusion for the general Iranian population.

They could be looking at widespread starvation and the collapse of most or all basic government services.

The government failure to maintain oil production and refining services already forced the importation of gasoline and other refined petroleum products.

Corruption has been rampant in many industries.

If a new government does not continue funding terrorism, there likely will be bad times for Hamas, and the “rebels” in Yemen, and other groups.

With few other allies, it is increasingly unlikely that Russia will have the ability to step up and intervene in Iran, and even if Putin did decide the intervene, the most likely result for Russia would be ten years of what they went through in Afghanistan before the fall of the Soviet Union.

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Monday, March 02, 2026 - 05:28 am: Edit

Jeff

To be fair and what we have seen.... I think Pakistan is the nation most likely nation to help Iran?

Not sure after Syria - Russia would want to try and help anyone at this moment in time (other than verbally supporting them)?

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Monday, March 02, 2026 - 06:47 am: Edit

Initial 'reports' seem to indicate Friendly Fire may have bought down the F15 (but no words on the other planes??)

Edit - just read an update and it looks like 3 F15's were shot down by Friendly Fire - all 6 crew are safe and have been recovered.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, March 02, 2026 - 07:41 am: Edit

Hezbollah entered the conflict; Israel struck Hezbollah targets in Lebanon. The Hezbollah attack was said to be much weaker than the previous war.

By Mike Grafton (Mike_Grafton) on Monday, March 02, 2026 - 07:46 am: Edit

I'd think a parlimentary constitutional democracy would be the way to go.

The problem is writing a constitution & sticking to it.

Maybe a cross between the US and British systems?

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, March 02, 2026 - 07:58 am: Edit

The B2 bombers used earlier each carried 20 of the 2000 pound bombs.

NY Mayor Mandami supported Iran, calling this an illegal war.

Iranians in New York demonstrated in support of the US attacks and gave thanks to President Trump.

Prince Pahlavi said he had united the Iranian resistance and was the man to lead Iran to democracy. Well, that’s what he said.

That whacko new Iranian leader said he’s not interested in talks with the US.

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Monday, March 02, 2026 - 08:11 am: Edit