Talking heads say that the expat Iranians for the most part do not reflect the views of the Iranians inside Iran. This is worse and more confusing than conditions in France, Italy, or Yugoslavia when the Nazis pulled out.

Half of Iran’s missile launcher vehicles have been destroyed so far.

NATO has expressed support for Trump and the US attacks, particularly for the destruction of Iranian missile and nuclear production sites. UK is now allowing the US to use British bases. NATO says the legal basis for the US action is solid.

Pentagon briefing by Hegseth at 8am Eastern time reports:
A fourth US serviceman died from wounds.
This is the most devastating air attack in the history of war.
Iran, it turns out, are not nice people who killed a lot of Americans.
Trump told Iran that hurting Americans means we will come after you.
Iran’s missile and drone programs were conventional protection for the nuclear blackmail ambitions.
Iran had done nothing positive in 47 years.
Trump bent over backwards to make a peace deal but Iran would not give up its nuclear or missile programs.
Our surgical attacks are justified and relentless.
This is not an endless war. Nation building is dumb. This is a devastating attack of limited endurance.
The US is using classified systems.
War is Hell and people get hurt.
We are not going to discuss sending special forces into Iran
Trump alone will decide when we’re done.
Shoot the archers, not just the arrows.
We fight to win, without apologizing.
- - -
General Caine says:
Deep condolences to those killed.
Thanks to personnel doing great job.
Attacks will take some time, there will be losses.
Unprecedented scale of attacks.
Synchronized layered effects of attacks.
Systematic deployment and preparation.
More forces are being sent.
Wisconsin, Vermont, Virginia sent national guard units.
Cyber Com and Space Com were first to attack.
First shots fired were Tonahawk missiles.
Attacks on command and control made Iranian response less effective.
Hundreds of Israeli sorties.
New tactics were used but won’t be detailed until this is over.
Counter drone systems alert and effective.
Three F15E shot down, no details. Crews rescued.
Bomb damage assessment is ongoing to refine plans.

Trump says attacks will be completed in four weeks or less.

By Alex Chobot (Alendrel) on Monday, March 02, 2026 - 09:49 am: Edit

No stupid rules of engagement.

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Monday, March 02, 2026 - 09:54 am: Edit

One effect of this new conflict is certainly welcome: the pipeline of Iranian munitions to Russia - upon which Russia has become increasingly reliant for their war against Ukraine - is effectively closed (both because Iran isn't going to be sending any weapons to anyone else when they need everything they can get themselves, and because the lines of transit for those arms are surely on the target list of both the U.S. and Israel). It will be interesting to see what happens to Russia's combat tempo over the next couple of months; here's hoping it falters to a crawl.

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Monday, March 02, 2026 - 11:19 am: Edit

Unconfirmed reports of interim Ayatollah wacko that Steve referred to above, has been killed in a subsequent air strike.

The war seems to be entering a new phase, lets call it “Wack a mole” character assassination phase, each time a new player stands up and proclaims they are the new Iranian leader, (metaphorically jumping up and down shouting, “shoot me! Shoot me!” ) after a brief pause, they immediately translate to Glory, do not pass “Go” do not collect $200.00 USD.

You have to wonder, at what point do people stop accepting the Ayatollah job?

By Mike Erickson (Mike_Erickson) on Monday, March 02, 2026 - 12:03 pm: Edit

Also note that Iranian weapons production will most likely be reduced by the attacks as well, limiting what's available for Russia even more. And Iran will most likely be less able to assist with Russian's oil smuggling network.

So it will probably be harder for Russian to be effective in the Ukraine war.

--Mike

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Monday, March 02, 2026 - 12:06 pm: Edit

Which goes a long way toward explaining why now.

Long picture, this whole thing just puts more pressure on Putin.

Dangerous games indeed.

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Monday, March 02, 2026 - 12:07 pm: Edit

Qatar’s Defense Ministry says its air force has successfully shot down two fighter aircraft incoming from Iran.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, March 02, 2026 - 01:03 pm: Edit

Trump now says four to five weeks, longer than that if we have to.
He says we are ahead of schedule.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, March 02, 2026 - 01:15 pm: Edit

B1 bombers have conducted attacks on Iranian ballistic missile facilities.

Trump has given phone interviews with six reporters from across the spectrum, unprecedented access during times like these.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, March 02, 2026 - 01:21 pm: Edit

Aatollah of the hour Larijani posted on line that he is still alive. (For now)

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Monday, March 02, 2026 - 01:40 pm: Edit

Is he number three? Or four?

I am having trouble keeping up without a score card…

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Monday, March 02, 2026 - 02:19 pm: Edit

Number 1.5, more or less, inasmuch as the temporary triumvirate (President Pezeshkian, Judiciary chief Mohseni-Eje'i, and the Guardian Council's selectee Arafi) has yet to select one, but with Larijani kind of running things until they do.

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Monday, March 02, 2026 - 02:31 pm: Edit

Damage to the 5th Fleet HQ in Bahrain appears to be not-insignificant. A number of radomes destroyed, warehouses burning, etc.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, March 02, 2026 - 05:13 pm: Edit

Khameini was 2, Khomeini was 1.

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Monday, March 02, 2026 - 05:55 pm: Edit

Fair enough. I thought we were counting from the start of the current war, not from the '79 revolution.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, March 02, 2026 - 06:05 pm: Edit

Damage at 5th Fleet HQ: unfortunate, but …

If you throw enough missiles at a target, one or two get through. If you throw enough missiles at enough targets, one or two targets will get hit. It sucks to have your family member killed in war or crime or accident.

It’s not a moral failure because you could not predict the future and place more defenses at the target that got hit. You do the best you can with the money congress gave you.

When you start a war, you know some of your own people will get hurt. How many Americans would be hurt by an Iranian nuclear bomb?

You cannot stop a huge military operation because four people died, just like you cannot shut down the power grid because someone got electrocuted by a defective power tool, or stop selling hatchets because someone used a hatchet to murder her parents.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, March 02, 2026 - 06:11 pm: Edit

We did not start counting presidents at the start of a war. Not that anyone can agree on when this war started. But I will take Jessica’s suggestion that it started in 79. So Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Dubya, Obama, Trump 45, Biden, Trump 47. Nine, right?

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Monday, March 02, 2026 - 06:33 pm: Edit

Oh, to be certain, the 5th Fleet HQ got off relatively light; several dozen missile were thrown at them, and it's nothing short of amazing that only a half-dozen or so got through. Still not great news for fleet ops.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, March 02, 2026 - 09:30 pm: Edit

A fleet is not a building. Fleets move and have all sorts of defenses.

Or did ou mean it would be difficult for a fleet HQ to run a fleet while literally on fire?

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Tuesday, March 03, 2026 - 01:54 am: Edit

A bigger picture here is China, which buys sanction-busting oil from Iran. Consider that China bought a lot of Venezuelan oil, but no more. China just rebuilt the Iranian air defense system and it lasted about half an hour in combat.

Then consider that Russia got a lot of drones, missiles, and artillery shells from Iran, but no more.

Supposedly, SecState Rubio “let the cat out of the bag” (said “the other Jessica”, the one on Fox) and revealed that Israel was going to do this with or without the US and Trump got dragged along. This doesn’t square with things Trump, Hegseth, Keene, Caine, and Rubio have said, that the joint operation was planned four months ago when both nations felt that there really was no other option.

Criticism focuses on…

War powers, but Trump has clearly followed the script.

Trump hasn’t made the case to the American people, but I have heard him make it.

Only Israel is with us, actually there are now eleven nations together in this.

NATO isn’t backing us, but they said yesterday they were and just today several of them opened their bases to us.

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Tuesday, March 03, 2026 - 02:09 am: Edit

Three questions

1) It seems politically the UK and US have 'upset each other' (Regime Change/Use of Bases/Diego Garcia was mentioned, but no doubt Trade Tariffs from last week might also be an issue) but also some issues are coming up between Israel and the US too ('who is leading who' seems to be one issue) - why the public spats so early on (as Allies will have issues)?

2) Israel has claimed Iran was weeks/a month away from from having an inpregnable nuclear and Ballistic Mission facility - so overstating the risks now are we the US and Israel understate the success of the 2025 War results?

3) Military - Who will run out first? A couple of comments are that a long war can't be sustained as Interceptor Missiles are beinng used up at a rapid rate.

So who is likely to run out first :-

Iran with Missile and Drones or the US/Gulf States/Israel with Interceptors (and for the US/Israel, offensive Smart/Bunker Buster bombs)?


Not really a question (as I am guessing it's trully not known) - what is the Isreali objective and what is the US objective (in case they are different things) - as just caught a bulletin where 'objective' was mentioned - but nothing about what the objectives actually are?

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Tuesday, March 03, 2026 - 02:57 am: Edit

I think the US-UK argument is overstated, the US-Israel thing isn’t real and no one inside the two governments has said anything.

Iran may not run out of missiles but it is quickly running out of launchers. Half of the are gone in 48 hours. The biggest missile volley at Israel I have seen in today’s news was 15. I suspect this may be down to residual levels by Friday. The short range missiles will be a bit tougher. But I suspect Iran will run out before Israel. Bahrain may be another story.

The Israeli objective is regime change, replacing the Ayatollahs with a democratic government that stops supporting Terrorism and renounces “death to Israel.”

The US objective is to destroy Iran’s missile and nuclear weapons industry and force Iran to end support for terrorists and proxies and renounce “death to America/Israel”. Oh yeah, and agree to never build missiles or nuclear weapons ever again.

And note this means REALLY ending nuclear weapons work, not continuing it by false claims it is for medical research.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Tuesday, March 03, 2026 - 05:58 am: Edit

The most likely successors to the Iranian leadership are said to be:

Mojtaba Khameni, son of the recently killed leader

Ali Reza Arafi, a senior cleric

Hassan Rouhani, a former president

Hassan Khomeini, grandson of the first Ayatollah

Mohammed Mendi Mirbagheri, head of Islamic culture

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Tuesday, March 03, 2026 - 06:03 am: Edit

At least one of them talking heads, an expert on Iran who was recently the head state department expert on Iran, a career diplomat not a politician, says the prince would win a free and fair election “no question”. I could not copy his name off of the tv efore TiVo had moved beyond where I could recover the data.

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Tuesday, March 03, 2026 - 06:23 am: Edit

I can't help but think this operation would be going better if the USA had gotten with the program on drones.

Ukraine knows how to shoot down long range attack drones. Had the US chosen to, we could have learned this from them. Damage to Gulf allied oil facilities would have been less.

Furthermore, offensive use of FPV drones would likely greatly increase the destruction of Iranian regime assets.

This is a criticism of Trump, Biden, and the US military. All three failed to learn the obvious lessons quickly enough.