Iran has switched to cluster warheads for its missile attacks on Israel. The missile releases 70-80 small bombs high up, before the normal point of interception. The bomblets scatter over an area over several miles, impractical to intercept.

Ayatollah Supremo Mojtaba (spelling) issued a written statement, but no one knows if he is alive. He reportedly suffered broken or crushed legs in the original attack, which killed his wife and parents. At best he is hospitalized and under heavy medication.

There is no shortage of oil, just a lot of fear, and fear drives the market. Several tankers have passed the straits, but one was hit by something and set on fire. The US is prepared to escort ships through the straits, but the Navy hasn’t been give that order yet.

China is starting to use its strategic oil reserve, which is the largest in the world.

The senate remains deadlocked over funding for DHS, with both sides offering deals the other says aren’t good enough.

Iran has executed a cyber attack on a large medical devise company, Stryker, deactivating thousands of medical devices.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Thursday, March 12, 2026 - 11:48 am: Edit

My sources align with Jessica’s.

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Thursday, March 12, 2026 - 11:54 am: Edit

To me the big unknowns are two-fold:

1) Just how effective will US drone warfare be?

We know the Pentagon is buying drones, including from Ukraine. Ukraine currently has the best inexpensive drone tech in the world, and also every reason to hate Iran's Government. Is it possible to use drone power to wrest control of a region?

Airpower has not been able to do that in the past. But drones are much lower-cost and more localizable. If, for example, it is necessary to bring and end to certain street patrols, drones can do that.

2) Money

Iran's dictatorship has run on oil money. With the war, I don't know if that source of revenue can continue. Will they find a way to get enough money for oil when they can't sell it by sea? If not, will they still be able to finance themselves?

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Thursday, March 12, 2026 - 12:12 pm: Edit

Jessica Orsini posted:

Quote:” The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps will hold de facto control, in what will essentially be a brutal military dictatorship replacing the brutal religious dictatorship. The Iranian Army will accept this, because the alternative is a civil war that throws Iran into anarchy for the next decade or more, and because the late Ayatollah Khomeini issued a final fatwah before his death declaring that the state of Iran must survive even if the theocracy does not. …”

You tube reports that the air war has changed this morning.

Where before attacks were being made against nuclear facilities, IIRG bases, naval bases &ships, air bases and aircraft…etc, the new targets are now down to hitting check points and killing the IIRG troops on the streets of Teheran (spelling) and other cities.

There is little doubt that Iran has been a military dictatorship with regard to how the IIRG has treated protestors and citizens, but targeting IIRG thugs directly, is new.

It will be interesting to see how effective a repressive dictatorship can be when its most coercive troops are hunted down and killed by drones.

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Thursday, March 12, 2026 - 01:01 pm: Edit

Jswile: ever since Arthur "Bomber" Harris (and to be honest, even before him), there have been predictions of bringing an enemy force to heel by way of an air war. To date, it hasn't happened, despite eighty years of trying. Sure enough, we've targeted the fixed checkpoints...and sure enough, within a day of doing so, the IRGC switched from fixed to moving checkpoints.

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Thursday, March 12, 2026 - 01:35 pm: Edit

Wait… you have not seen moving vehicles hit by drones? Check it out, some of the IIRG soldiers killed were standing by vehicles, others killed while in the moving vehicles.

With the advent of live video from drones, its now possible to hit moving targets.

Ukraine has been demonstrating the tactics since 2022. The Russian defense has been concealment and deployment of thin strand nylon netting to entangle the drones before they can get close enough to kill.

But thats not whats happening in Iran.

Since January, when large numbers of civilians protested against the government, the IIRG has been using check points in fixed locations, with machine gun emplacements with clear fields of fire, apparently to stop large numbers of civilians from gathering.

No check points and no machine gun emplacements will make controlling the population more difficult.

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Thursday, March 12, 2026 - 01:37 pm: Edit

Jessica --

That is true. But is there evidence one way or the other on whether or not dominance by small, inexpensive drones can change a government?

By Carl-Magnus Carlsson (Hardcore) on Thursday, March 12, 2026 - 03:09 pm: Edit

It takes six month to train a drone operator, and the US would need thousands of them along with a drone supply of ten thousands of drones monthly.

Set that up, start the operation and watch the IRGC switch to plains clothes... What then?

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Thursday, March 12, 2026 - 04:15 pm: Edit

The only way this ends is troops on the ground overthrowing the government and IRGC, and those will have to be local Iranian people rising against their oppressors. This will be a bloodbath, win or lose.

It is an axiom of war that you can have all the weapons you want but the only way it ends is for some grunt with a bayonet to prod the other fellow out of his foxhole and make him sign the peace treaty.

The problem is, Trump and the US can get tired and bored and just stop bombing things, but the IRGC still wants to destroy the USA and won't quit trying, not matter how ineffective they are at doing so. They will use asymetrical warfare, such as using sleeper cells to kill a few US civilians, just enough to keep things to a low roar. The problem there is that the only way for the US to end that low roar is to literally surrender to the ayatollah unconditionally. That would mean forcing the entire US population to convert to Islam.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Thursday, March 12, 2026 - 04:43 pm: Edit

That, or pay the Sicilian Mafia $5000 for each IRGC member they kill. That would be cheaper and about as effective.

By Mike Curtis (Nashvillen) on Thursday, March 12, 2026 - 06:31 pm: Edit

"U.S. Central Command is aware of the loss of a U.S. KC-135 refueling aircraft. The incident occurred in friendly airspace during Operation Epic Fury, and rescue efforts are ongoing. Two aircraft were involved in the incident. One of the aircraft went down in western Iraq, and the second landed safely.
This was not due to hostile fire or friendly fire."

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Thursday, March 12, 2026 - 08:22 pm: Edit

A Moslem individual who had spent time in a US prison for terrorism (but somehow was not deported) walked into a classroom at Old Dominion University in Virginia and started shooting. Students in the classroom who are ROTC cadets grappled with him. The terrorist did not survive the grappling. One of the cadets reportedly had a large pocket knife. The FBI commended the courage of the cadets. I am not sure of the legal status of cadets these days but I think somebody(s) need a bronze star with V device.

Does anyone want to bet against my prediction that Trump awards the medals to the cadets in a White House ceremony?

By Mike Curtis (Nashvillen) on Thursday, March 12, 2026 - 08:40 pm: Edit

More from Aviation 24/7:

During a mission as part of Operation Epic Fury, a U.S. Air Force KC-135 Stratotanker went down in western Iraq.

Two aircraft were involved in the mishap while operating in friendly airspace.

One KC-135 has unfortunately gone down. We are relieved to report that the second aircraft involved was able to land safely in Israel. Initial reports confirm this was not the result of hostile fire or friendly fire.

Active recovery and rescue efforts are currently underway on the ground.

Six crew members were on board, but there was no immediate word on their condition.

The KC-135 is the backbone of global reach, and the crews who fly these "iron birds" are some of the finest in the skies. Our thoughts are with the airmen, their families, and the rescue teams working tirelessly at the crash site.

By Dana Madsen (Madman) on Thursday, March 12, 2026 - 09:03 pm: Edit

On the strait of Hormuz and it's semi blockaded state.

A week ago I agreed with Steve that there was no immediate crisis, but mostly worry. The market was well supplied over the last year, China increased their stockpile of oil substantially in the last year, they added approx 400 million barrels in 2025 on top of whatever they had(they don't officially announce oil in storage but oil insiders try their best to track flows). In the last year the US added about 20 million barrels to the SPR.

However, this is the chokepoint for 20%+ of all traded hydrocarbons and there are real risks here that need to be dealt with. It can't stay "effectively" closed for a significant period of time without major damage being done to the overall world economy. Some nations will feel more, or much more economic damage than others. But even heavy oil exporting nations will probably feel an impact to their economy from feedback on other sectors from nations that undergo significant stress. Second, it's not just oil, fertilizer prices are shooting up as a lot of fertilizer is made with cheap Nat Gas feedstock in the gulf states.

How long can it stay closed before this damage starts setting in. I think we can bound the problem, if it opens in the next few weeks, everything is going to be fine with a few hiccups and some annoyance because people paid higher gas prices for a month or two. If it takes more than 3 months, refineries in countries that run out of supply will begin shutting down. There will not be enough oil for all refineries to keep at full production. In 3 months time a country like China may still have 5 months supply left, but will they sell any of it to an empty South Korean refinery? Between 1 and 3 months from start of Epic Fury(Apr 1 to May 31) it's going to slowly get worse.

WTI averaged approx $65 / bbl in 2025, it's currently $97, so up almost 50% as various groups either speculate or are willing to pay extra to lock in delivery.

Bloomberg news is doing their best to track ships that slip through the Strait and there are ships still moving. Transits are less than 10 per day so down about 90% from normal, normally 50 ships per day in each direction. Half or more of the ships making transit in the last week are sanctioned tankers loading Iranian oil for delivery to China or Chinese cargo ships broadcasting their identity and the Iranians are leaving them alone. The odd other ship with a different destination does make it through. The Chinese ships are not solely loading Iranian products but might be picking up Iraqi fertilizer or other cargoes. At this time the US navy is not interfering in cargoes going to China or seizing ships loaded with Iranian oil. So the Iranians are currently bringing in more oil export income than Iraq or Kuwait. Saudi and Qatar have options to export smaller volumes from other ports not effectively blockaded.

Chris Wright, US Energy Secratary, tweeted yesterday that the US Navy escorted a ship through the strait. Then he took down the post and said they got that wrong, it never happened. Today he said that the US Navy isn't going to be ready to provide escorts until at least the end of the month. Maybe he is trying to undersell, and then they can successfully announce a completed mission next week, maybe he got a real briefing and told the truth, maybe he doesn't know what the plan is?

The Iranians yesterday hit ships moored at an Iraqi port with unmanned naval drones. Ukraine has been using unmanned naval drones to attack Russian warships and sink multiple cargo ships carrying Russian cargo in the Black Sea, twice in the Med, and off the west coast of Africa. I don't know if the Iranian naval drone capabilities are anywhere close to what the Ukrainians have, but the US may not want to let cargo ships loading in Iran sail around to the Red sea and unload a batch of drones off the coast near the Saudi's alternate port. I assume that's how the Ukrainians got their naval drones out of the black sea and into the med, loaded secretly on a cargo ship.

So Steve, like last week, I agree today, there is still no crisis. Refineries around the world are still running and delivering gas/diesel to their regular markets. Prices are up some, but it's only a couple tanks of gas for most people, it's an annoyance today. The only refineries shut today due to supply challenges are in Saudi/Qatar/Kuwait which stopped operations because they have nowhere to ship finished product. But there is a real ticking clock.

Pres. Trump has said that he will only accept an unconditional surrender, then he's made other statements on required objectives. He said if they dare to lay mines they will face military consequences never seen before, but 4 days ago it was the biggest strikes to date. He may say in the next week, I've won, we've completed our goals, we are going to stop. What happens though if the Iranians say, no, that's alright, keep bombing us if you want, we've seen the worst you can do and we can take this. We are going to keep the strait closed and aren't going to stop until the world comes to the table and makes concessions to us. We want all sanctions on us lifted, we want to sell oil and buy modern parts to fix our water systems, or maybe we want to buy new centrifuges. There might be a lot of countries in the world willing to come to that sort of deal because they may not specifically fear an Iranian nuke themselves.

I don't know how this will play out. But I think we will find out in the next 6 weeks, by end of April, if airpower alone can stop Iranian air and naval drone launches, plus small suicide speed boats in a narrow waterway. Yes, airstrikes have got the vast majority of their big naval ships. But can even a couple of DDGs protect all ships spread out in a convoy against a mass launch at short distance. I think the DDGs are likely to protect themselves but how many large cargo ships can they escort. Lloyds insurance yesterday had an article saying they don't think escorts can protect more than 10% of normal volume, or about what's currently getting through, if Iran maintains the ability to launch air and naval attacks at short distance. Their analysts felt that the ships the US has available could reliably/safely escort 2, maybe 3 groups of 3 to 5 ships on transits through the strait on a daily basis. The navy may say we'll escort 20 ships, but if they can only reliably protect 5, that's all that will join the convoy.

If that's correct, or even close, escorts aren't going to stop the clock from ticking. 95%+ of all the drones hiding in a cave near the coast has to blown up, or we have to wait until they run out, but we know they have probably been making hundreds a month for multiple years. Or are some countries troops going to need to go occupy the coast of Iran and push the IRGC back 50 miles. And no nations military is currently in theatre on standby for that mission.

By Ryan Opel (Ryan) on Thursday, March 12, 2026 - 10:10 pm: Edit

Biy just think where the US would be if we'd been able to fill the SPR at 25 a barrel in 2020.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Thursday, March 12, 2026 - 10:30 pm: Edit

Under the previous president, gasoline was going to go obsolete so there was no reason to refill the reserve.

By Mike Erickson (Mike_Erickson) on Thursday, March 12, 2026 - 10:43 pm: Edit

In 2020 at the low point, tankers were being paid by the barrel to take on crude. Oil had become a "negative price" commodity.

--Mike

By A David Merritt (Adm) on Friday, March 13, 2026 - 12:12 am: Edit

In 2020 President Trump was still in office, until 1/20/2021.

President Trump did order the petroleum reserve to be filled at $25.00 a barrel.

Chuck Schumer blocked that request in the Senate, stating that the Democrats had just stopped a bail out for the oil industry.

In 2022 after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, President Biden released 180,000,000 barrels to stabilize oil prices, and subsequently refilled the reserve by 200,000,000 barrels at ~$75.00 a barrel.

This time Biden wasn't the pinhead, Schumer was.

By Jeff Anderson (Jga) on Friday, March 13, 2026 - 12:22 am: Edit

I have a question about the Iran situation that might stray too far into politics. If so, please delete this post.

I remember reading that, under the War Powers Act of 1973, the President has the authority to act for no more than ninety days without a resolution from Congress to approve the action.

My memory isn't what it once was, so I honestly don't know if it's accurate. If so, though, what will happen if the congressional approval bill gets filibustered?

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Friday, March 13, 2026 - 12:51 am: Edit

At least one source says Mojtaba lost a leg in the strike on the leadership meeting.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Friday, March 13, 2026 - 06:04 am: Edit

Iran is posting AI video showing Tel Aviv destroyed by Iranian missiles, US bases ablaze, an aircraft carrier on fire, and so forth. Anyone find links to those please send them to me.

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Friday, March 13, 2026 - 07:04 am: Edit

The Iranian government has posted video of the ceremony installing Mojataba Khamenei appointed to succeed his father as Supreme Leader Ayatollah .

For security and safety, they used a cardboard mock up of Mojataba Khamenei.

Very funny watching the various people on the podium kissing the hand of the Supreme leader, as they position the card board mock up on the stage.

By Carl-Magnus Carlsson (Hardcore) on Friday, March 13, 2026 - 07:13 am: Edit

well,there are worse things to kiss.

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Friday, March 13, 2026 - 08:16 am: Edit

Regarding the shooter at Old Dominion: the reason he was not deported after his 2016 conviction for attempting to provide material support to ISIL is that he was a U.S. citizen. Per court records, he grew radicalized while serving in the Virginia National Guard between 2009 and 2015.

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Friday, March 13, 2026 - 08:19 am: Edit

Steve: I happened across one of the "two U.S. carriers damaged!" videos, posted to YouTube by Hindustan Times. It was a combination of clips from an AI video put together last year and close shots of damage to LHD-6 Bonhomme Richard from the fire six years ago. Emailing you the link.