Electronic Weapons: Ukraine Solves the Fog Problem
March 14, 2026: During the Ukrainian winter of late 2025 and early 2026 Russian forces sought to take advantage of the thick fog that covers vast areas of terrain that their troops operate in. For a few weeks that worked, but that was enough time for the Ukrainians to obtain and install thermal cameras on many of their surveillance drones. The thermal cameras detect differences in temperature and that means armored vehicles and troops dressed in cold weather clothing are easy to detect and kill with attack drones.
The United States not only sent thermal imaging equipment for drones but also for Ukrainian troops. For over a decade American troops have been using helmet mounted ENVGs/Enhanced Night Vision and SENVG/Spiral Enhanced Night Vision Goggles. The main improvement with SENVG was a much sharper, true-color image. Troops who tested them did not want to give them up. The ENVGs were so successful that the army ordered 50,000, so that all troops in a combat zone could have them. The ENVG were particularly useful at spotting enemy gunmen at night. Troops equipped with ENVG have a 50 percent probability of spotting these hidden hostiles at 300 meters and an 80 percent probability at 150 meters. This made it much more difficult for enemy fighters to ambush American troops at night. Since the enemy rarely has night vision gear, they have to rely on sound and fleeting glimpses of the approaching Americans. That means the U.S. troops had to be less than 50 meters away before the enemy could open fire. The ENVG thus provides a crucial edge at night. This has been great for American, and later Ukrainian, morale but not so good for the Taliban or Russian troops. The SENVG goggles simply increase the American/Ukrainian edge.
What made the ENVG so popular was that it combines the older light enhancement technology goggles with a thermal heat sensing night sight. This combined sight weighs about one kilogram. The older ENVG thermal only weighed 864 gr, while the AN/PVS-13 light enhancing device weighed 568 gr, for a total of nearly a kilogram. The new sight is not only lighter, but more compact and easier to use. It provides a total of 15 hours' use, 7.5 hours for thermal imaging and the same for light enhancement. In most cases where there is some star or moonlight the light enhancement sight will do. But where there is no other light as in a building or cave the thermal imager works. The thermal imager also works through fog and sandstorms.
It was two decades later that field testing of the original ENVG, the AN/PAS13, took place. This device worked with the current AN/PVS-14 night vision goggles which provide night vision by enhancing available light but added the capability to use thermal imaging seeing differences in heat. As more combat moved to Afghanistan, the ENVG became more critical for battlefield success at night.
Until the 1990s, thermal imaging equipment was large and bulky and only available in vehicles like M-1 tanks and M-2 IFVs. But twenty years ago, smaller and lighter thermal imagers came onto the market. The U.S. Army Special Forces have been using these lightweight thermal imagers to great effect from the very beginning of their development.
Field testing of the combined device began eighteen years ago and was quickly found to be popular and reliable. The earlier thermal imagers were also very popular, but carrying both night sights was not. At first, the plan was not to equip all combat troops with the more expensive combined sight. That soon changed once user reports came back, praising the ENVG and describing how much of a lifesaver it was. Not all non-combat troops had an ENVG, but every unit had some. The army found the money to buy over 50,000 of the new ENVGs, which cost about $15,000 each.

FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Wednesday, March 18, 2026 - 03:13 pm: Edit

Intelligence: Russia Sends Instructors To War
March 13, 2026: Russia recently sent five of its military instructors to Ukraine for three months to gather information and gain experience in the latest combat methods. During World War II American and Russian troops encountered instructors from NCO and officer schools in the final days of combat. When all was lost, the Germans sent in their instructors to delay the inevitable defeat. In Ukraine the Russians want to avoid ultimate defeat by upgrading the skills and combat knowledge of their instructors.
Last year Russia established thirteen VOIN/Fighter centers. VOIN is used to expose teenagers to military life by giving them military uniforms, regular military orientation and some training to prepare them for joining the military via conscription or volunteering. The VOIN training for teenagers also includes a lot of education and indoctrination about the importance of patriotism and preparing to defend Russia. This is one of the reasons Russia never refers to their invasion of Ukraine as an invasion. According to the government, the fighting in Ukraine is a Russian internal matter to suppress separatist activity by some people in southern Russia that call themselves Ukrainians and are fighting to create an independent country called Ukraine.
Since 2022, VOIN centers also trained Russian army reservists headed for Ukraine. Recently, the number of reservists called up has overwhelmed the VOIN system and reservists are sent to Ukraine without any preparation. Losses are higher for these reservists.
While the war in Ukraine isn’t over yet, Russia is already working on needed reforms so, they hope, that the next time Russian troops are in combat they perform better and perhaps even win. There have been several rounds of unsuccessful military reforms since the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. One of the major causes of that collapse was their unaffordable and largely ineffective armed forces. In post-Soviet Russia there were far fewer restrictions on criticizing the military. Most Russians had a very negative attitude towards conscription and the reforms underway because of the Ukraine War disaster are typical of several previous efforts to remedy problems that continue to resist any fundamental change. President Vladimir Putin ordered all these reform efforts and is dismayed that they failed. Putin never served in the military but joined the KGB secret police in 1975. Since then Putin did what he could to punish domestic enemies, especially those calling for actions against his corrupt officials.
When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991 the KGB became, after many reforms and dismissal of incompetent or disloyal personnel, the FSB/Federal Security Bureau. By 1998 Putin was head of the FSB. At this point Putin declared that communism was a failed doctrine and proposed that democracy replace it. Putin worked hard to control the voting and the counting of votes so that he and his cronies could stay in power.
The FSB reforms were still underway when Russia invaded Ukraine in early 2022. The losses were heavier than expected and a new plan called for a massive training program to replace all the officers lost in the first few months of the 2022 fighting. The immediate problem was that all the officer instructors were sent to the front in March and April 2022 where they too became casualties. Next was that military and political leaders are still unable to restore one crucial aspect of an improved military: NCOs/Non-Commissioned Officers, sergeants in the army, petty officers in the navy. A century ago, Russia abandoned a long tradition of NCOs. Instead, junior officers would try to do everything NCOs handled. That never worked. Providing adequate training for new combat troops is something else that never had a high priority and still doesn’t after 30 months of war with Ukraine. The prewar reforms were supposed to change that. There have been similar efforts in the past and none lasted long.


FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Wednesday, March 18, 2026 - 03:13 pm: Edit

Procurement: USN And Modular Construction
March 13, 2026: While the United States Navy has long used modular construction techniques for its submarines, it now wants to expand this to include construction of its new class of FF(X) Frigates.
Modular shipbuilding consists of portions of the ships being built in several different locations and then transported to a shipyard where the modules are joined together to produce the completed ship.
This approach reduces the time it takes to build a ship by several years. This modular approach has long been used for commercial ships, which inspired the American navy to adopt these techniques to build their nuclear attack and ballistic missile submarines.
The first of these new frigates is expected to enter service in 2028 with 64 more appearing during the 2030s. The FF(X) Frigates are 4,700 ton ships that are 128 meters long and have a top speed of 52 kilometers an hour. Range is 22,000 kilometers. The crew of 148 operate air and surface search radars as well as electronic warfare systems and two anti-ship missile decoy launchers. Armament consists of a 57mm gun in a turret and a 30mm autocannon. There is a 21 cell launcher for M49 anti-aircraft missiles and up to sixteen 400 kg Naval Strike Missiles with a 120 kg warhead. These missiles can be used against ships or land targets.

FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Wednesday, March 18, 2026 - 03:14 pm: Edit

Information Warfare: Hybrid Escalation in Ukraine
February 11, 2026: Russian leader Vladimir Putin faces dire prospects in 2026. Russia has been fighting a war that is now longer than the one against the Germans in World War II. Unlike World War II, Russia is losing the Ukraine war. Russia lost over 100,000 soldiers in 2025 and only took two percent of Ukrainian territory during the last two years. Ukrainian forces, on the defensive most of the time, lose a third of that.
Russian military and political leaders realize that Russia cannot win militarily but cannot admit defeat and withdraw from Ukraine without risking a collapse of the current government. Russian soldiers can remain in Ukraine and do little fighting while clandestinely bringing the war to the NATO countries that support Ukraine. This includes Russian warships and combat aircraft increasingly passing over these countries or violating the 22 kilometer coastal waters that are considered national territory.
Information warfare is also promising. Many political parties in Europe are pro-Russian and eager to see a negotiated peace in Ukraine. That would end the billions of dollars’ worth of military and economic aid these countries are currently sending to Ukraine. Keeping that money at home means more can be spent on local needs.
Then there is an expansion of the existing Russian sabotage efforts in Europe. Planting bombs in factories producing military goods or sabotaging trains or trucks taking weapons and equipment to Ukraine. There has already been some of this and an escalation would bring the war home to Europeans in a very physical fashion. End the war or stop supporting Ukraine and the violence ends.
Meanwhile Russia has its own war related problems. The economy is overheated and less able to support the war effort. There is a labor shortage, loan interest rates are moving towards 20 percent and the economy is expected to grow by less than one percent in 2026. The cost of continuing the war is nine percent of GDP, a level that cannot be supported indefinitely. Another year or two of that kind of spending will cause long-term damage to the economy.
Another ominous decline is what Russia gets for its oil and natural gas exports. Prices are falling and expected to keep falling throughout 2026. By the end of 2025 oil prices were down by a third versus 2024. Petroleum products are the main source of income for the national budget. The Sovereign Wealth fund is half of what it was in 2022 and continuing to shrink. This is the money used to pay for national emergencies. It has been gradually depleted to pay war costs over the last few years. If that fund is depleted, Russia has no economic safety net.

FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Wednesday, March 18, 2026 - 03:14 pm: Edit

Special Operations: The Russian Border War
February 11, 2026: At the end of December last year, about a hundred Russian soldiers crossed the border into the Sumy province of Ukraine. The soldiers seized fifty civilians and about a dozen Ukrainian soldiers and moved them all back to Russia. The Russian soldiers then returned to the Russian side of the border. This sort of thing is considered a violation of international law. The Russian government denied that this happened and provided no information on the captives.
It’s also unknown if the brief Russian invasion had any connection to a 2024 Ukrainian invasion of Ukraine. Ukraine sent several thousand troops and over a hundred tanks and other armored combat vehicles into Russia’s Kursk region in early August. It took a week for the Russians to send any effective response and that force was only able to defend, not always successfully.
Reinforcements to Kursk were meager at first. Satellite photos revealed a convoy accompanied by two mobile field kitchens, with one truck towing a water trailer. There were about twenty trucks carrying troops and supplies. These vehicles had only a few hundred soldiers.
Ukrainians quickly advanced more than 35 kilometers into Russia while surviving the initial weak Russian efforts to halt the advance. The Ukrainian air forces used bombs and attack drones to destroy five bridges the Russians needed to move supplies to their forces. Without those bridges, most Russian troops in the area will soon be out of food, medical supplies and munitions. Meanwhile, Russia evacuated about 200,000 civilians from the area, sending them to nearby areas where there was no fighting.
After two weeks, Ukrainian forces occupied about 1,100 square kilometers of Russian territory. The attack force was accompanied by hundreds of drones. Some were for surveillance, to keep track of Russian forces. Most of the drones were for attacking Russian troops or infrastructure. This included several key bridges and a few other military facilities.
At first the Russians couldn’t believe that the Ukrainians were invading Russia. This should not have been a surprise because the Russian offensive into Ukraine has been stalled for over a year. The Russians were unable to counterattack for a number of reasons, including fear of failure and too many soldiers who did not want to be in Ukraine. Four weeks after the Kursk invasion began there were nearly 10,000 Ukrainian troops in Russia. The Ukrainian forces withdrew from Kursk province six weeks after they entered Russia.
In 2023 the Russian Volunteer Corps/RDK and Freedom of Russia Legion/LSR, two anti-Putin Russian militias based in Ukraine, launched raids into Russia. The two militias are not identical. The LSR began when about a hundred Russian soldiers defected mostly as a single group in early 2022. The RDK was formed around Russians living and working in Ukraine when the invasion began. Both groups are almost entirely composed of Russians who oppose Russian leader Vladimir Putin.
The raids are meant to embarrass Putin, not kill Russian soldiers and civilians. Some of the Russian responses to the raids did that, notably by doing the same things they did in Ukraine, like bombing and using thermobaric weapons in civilian areas, looting Russian instead of Ukrainian civilians, and so on. Most of the responses against the Ukrainian-backed Russian militias were ineffectual, which is typical of the Russian Army Putin has created to fight in Ukraine. These raiding operations took place in the Russian province of Belgorod, which is on the border north of the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv. Initially these raids faced no armed opposition and, when Russian security forces showed up during more recent raids, the Russian troops either retreated or surrendered. This was not unexpected because Russian troops in Ukraine have performed poorly from the beginning. Worse, the raiders were all Russians who, unlike most Russian army personnel in Ukraine, were competent and effective fighters whose motivation was to discredit Vladimir Putin and his war in Ukraine.
It was also a mystery, at first, where these anti-Putin Russians came from. The LSR was formed in early 2022 from a company of Russian soldiers who defected to the Ukrainians in March 2022 and became part of the International Legion Ukraine formed from the many foreign veterans who went to Ukraine to fight the invaders. The RDK consisted of Russians living in Russia and Ukraine who were fed up with Putin and also joined the International Legion but later left that to form the RDK.
While the International Legion was formed to defend Ukraine, the RDK and LSR were formed to embarrass, discredit and oust Putin from power. Since the invasion began in February 2022, there have been a growing number of Russians who oppose the war. This is one reason why some of the raids are carried out deep, over 50 kilometers, inside Russia. The Russian armed response to these raids has been embarrassingly ineffective.
Before these raids began, the Ukrainian border was lightly guarded, on both sides, by border guards and conscripts. Once these raids by Ukrainian-backed Russian militias began and the border was revealed to be vulnerable, Russia tried to reinforce border security along the entire 540-kilometer border. This proved to be difficult without withdrawing a substantial number of Russian troops from Ukraine along with artillery, armored vehicles and air support. This led some Russian media critics to describe this as an easy way to divert Russian forces from the fighting in Ukraine. Russian media was ordered to downplay the fact that the raiders were Russian. The reality of the situation eventually reached most Russians. This is what RDK and LSR wanted, to show that Russians were fighting against Putin. Russia described the raiders as Ukrainian terrorists, playing down the fact that the raiders were Russians. Media coverage of the raids made it obvious that Russian security forces were no better at defending the border than they were at defeating Ukrainians inside Ukraine.
Russia also has to worry about the imminent Ukrainian counteroffensive in southern Ukraine. If that offensive has any obvious success, it will demonstrate that the poor security on the Belgorod border was part of a pattern of Russian military failures in Ukraine. Putin is ignoring this and his close associates are not supposed to tell Putin how bad the situation is in Ukraine. This is not a strategy for victory, but for ignoring defeats and hoping for the best.
The Russian media cannot report these problems on the border or inside Ukraine. Russians who are curious have other ways, usually via the internet, to find out what is really going on. As Western economic sanctions on Russia continue and are increased, that means more economic privation for Russian civilians. Putin is confident that the traditional Russian willingness to tolerate shortages and higher unemployment will prevent any protests inside Russia. That has generally been the case. But because this is not a war where Russia has been invaded and is defending itself, Russian military losses and economic losses are harder to justify. Russia is the invader of a neighbor that was not attacking Russia. This reduces the Russian people’s willingness to tolerate the cost of the war. And now Russia is facing armed Russians fighting inside Russia to protest the Putin policies.

FYEO

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Wednesday, March 18, 2026 - 03:26 pm: Edit

I could have sworn the message I was responding to said that Trump said "Europe", not "NATO", had not supported the US.

Your statement about who supported Ukraine more is at best out of date. Check the history of financial contribitions.

But above all, Trump should just accept Ukraine's help in areas where the US needs it:

* shooting down Shaheds
* dealing with Naval drones
* Using drones offensively against Iran

The confluence of interests is obvious and tremendous. The opportunity is right there, if only Trump would sieze it.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Wednesday, March 18, 2026 - 04:37 pm: Edit

The US gave Ukraine money. The Europeans gave them LOANS. Counting loans and cash as the same thing (which they are not) the Europeans did give more support. Count cash as aid and loans as not, the US gave far more. Also, counting old weapons the same as new technology is not the same; adjust for that and the US gave far more.

The US has very intense catch-up program on drones and has taken Ukrainian help along with Israel and other nations.

By Mike Erickson (Mike_Erickson) on Wednesday, March 18, 2026 - 04:43 pm: Edit

Most of the European financial contributions to Ukraine were offset by purchases of Russian fossil fuels. And that continues today, although it is tapering off. So basically the Europeans were paying Ukraine and Russian to fight.

--Mike

By Carl-Magnus Carlsson (Hardcore) on Wednesday, March 18, 2026 - 05:41 pm: Edit

France is in the Gulf, and have received praise for their help defending their allies.
Then there is operation Aspide.
There is of course much more going on that I have never heard of. So, yes, European countries are involved in efforts to make the region more secure.

They are not likely to come to help Trump keeping the strait open though. He has indirectly landed a blow to the world economy and only Israel seem pleased, and maybe Putin. I read that no allies were consulted, or even warned, beforehand, which doesn't help in getting support.
I have also read that this lack of respect and concern for the consequences for the Gulf states didn't go unnoticed in the Gulf. They will likely try cooperate more and lessen reliance on the US for their defence. Which is a good thing in the eyes of all involved parties, I suppose.

By Carl-Magnus Carlsson (Hardcore) on Wednesday, March 18, 2026 - 06:08 pm: Edit

On Loans and aid I am fine with the US has stopped giving anything and are now only selling some weapons. Russia is a threat to Europe and not the US. At least not directly.

However this change, the attempts to get Greenland, and being friendly with Putin etc, have consequences for the relations between the US and the nations of Europe. It's not really Trumps fault; it was likely inevitable because it is a matter of geography.

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Wednesday, March 18, 2026 - 06:17 pm: Edit

Russia is a threat to the US. It has attacked Americans with a microwave weapon, including in the Washington DC area. Victims report devastating consequences. Read up on the Havana Syndrome.

By Dana Madsen (Madman) on Wednesday, March 18, 2026 - 09:48 pm: Edit

Maybe your just upset at the current situation Steve, or maybe you don't remember. You said "Trump has said...support only going TO Europe", that is simply an incorrect statement.

The US invoked article 5 under NATO in 2001 and all 30 NATO countries deployed to Afghanistan making up about 30% of the troops deployed and about 30% of fatalities.

Fact, the first chance NATO countries were requested to support the US they did so.

The only leader of a NATO country openly musing over the last year or more about not responding to an attack on other members is President Trump.

NATO is a defensive alliance, the US was not attacked by Iran. Nothing in NATO articles say that the countries have to assist another NATO country acting as an aggressor. If Poland attacked Russia next month, and then cried for assistance when missiles start hitting them, NATO does not need to respond, if Poland launched an aggressive action then the NATO self defense articles don't apply.

Actually, Turkey could make a plausible claim for NATO article 5 because they have had a few missiles launched at them by Iran.

Now, would it be in Europe's or Japan's or other countries interest to deploy ships to the Gulf to help protect shipping and help reopen traffic through the strait of Hormuz. That is a separate item, and maybe they should have.

The US did not make an article 5 request for help to NATO this last weekend, because they knew it didn't apply. President Trump tried to browbeat them into showing up and found he had no friends among them, respect or leverage.

Possibly, reaping what you sow is what President Trump is seeing. He's spent years insulting his "allies", designates them as security risks to find ways to apply extra tariffs, and, well I could go on but I'll stop here.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Wednesday, March 18, 2026 - 10:59 pm: Edit

I will grant you Afghanistan, even though it had nothing to do with supporting the US and everything to do with getting some combat veterans into armies that had none.

I will also note that NATO nations did not offer any help but instead made a great show of staying out of this and letting the US deal with the most dangerous nation on the planet.

Let us remember the bigger picture. Without Epic Fury (or whatever this thing is called, Furious Lion?) the most dangerous terrorist regime in the world would have had nuclear weapons by Christmas, and missiles that could reach all of Europe.

By Dana Madsen (Madman) on Wednesday, March 18, 2026 - 11:56 pm: Edit

On the likelihood of Iran having a nuclear weapon by Christmas. That might be true, or a real risk to be guarded against. If true that would mean the US and Trump took needed action. I certainly can't say your wrong on that statement, but you also may not be correct. It's early to know for certain. I'm reasonably certain that almost 50% of congress / senate don't believe that, but you probably don't have much respect for those Senators opinions.

There is also a counter view point that might be correct. The former US Director of counter terrorism doesn't think the above point was correct and quit to go public. Maybe Iran wasn't really close to a nuclear weapon, maybe Israeli intelligence believed that the regime was weak (which they were) and pressure from initial bombing and wiping out their senior leadership day 1 might have provided the push that collapsed them. Saying they were close to nukes was just a handy excuse. I'm not sure that's worked out right now, even if the US/Israel kill the top 5 in leadership in the IRGC every day, and then the new top 5 tomorrow. Right now it looks like the IRGC is in control enough that they will appoint the next 5 tomorrow, and the next 5 the day after that.

BTW, I believe the Iranian regime is evil terrorist supporting religious fanatics who murders their own people and supports the murder of innocents abroad. Stopping them, or removing them from power is a good thing for the world. I'm just not convinced the US/Israeli actions in the last 3 weeks was the best way to do that. So, while I do support the ultimate goal, the best path to get there is hard to know.

President Trump didn't make any attempt to build a coalition before starting this. He's quite frankly, very unpopular among the citizenry of European countries, and Canada. Even if the position is correct he probably couldn't have built a coalition and any European leader that supported him now, even if it's the "right" thing to do would probably find themselves in trouble with their voters. He probably couldn't convince a building full of Europeans that they needed to evacuate if the building was on fire and he was the first one to yell fire.

BTW on NATO and shirking. I've said before and will repeat, I don't think my country Canada has put enough into our defense budget for the last 30+ years. I'd say the same for most European NATO countries. I might not agree that we needed to fund to US levels of GDP military spend, but I won't defend a position that we've done enough. Please no one accuse me of saying Canada has done all it needed to. We do appear to be committing significant new resources over the last year, it takes a while to build up from a low point, whether that's a one off for the times or a genuine change, I don't know the answer to yet.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Thursday, March 19, 2026 - 12:06 am: Edit

I think if we can agree on one thing, it is that Trump mouths off too much, has no filter, says what he thinks, and has no concept of polite disagreement.

Sometimes in the office we chat about current events and what we would do if we were in charge. Jean has repeatedly said that as White House press officer she would have me fitted with a shock collar and a microphone in my ear to keep me from being too abrupt or emphatic and from thinking out loud. (She thinks someone should do this for Trump.) I often think out loud about product schedules and cause her marketing program to correct my off hand comments. I had to buy her lunch today because she wanted to delay CIVIL WARS to Friday and I had publicly promised it would release Wednesday.

By Jeff Anderson (Jga) on Thursday, March 19, 2026 - 12:11 am: Edit

How vulnerable would Shaheed Drones be to .50 caliber? Rework Ma Deuce into a RADAR guided autonomous weapon system with decent point-defense range and hitting power?

By Carl-Magnus Carlsson (Hardcore) on Thursday, March 19, 2026 - 02:24 am: Edit

Jga, very. They are un-armored after all. Google for Ukraine sky sentinel gun turret, or the US Bullfrog M2.

By Carl-Magnus Carlsson (Hardcore) on Thursday, March 19, 2026 - 04:14 am: Edit

"She [Tulsi Gabbard at the Senate Intelligence Committee hearing] said it was the intelligence community’s assessment that Iran’s nuclear enrichment program had been “obliterated” by last summer’s strikes. She also said it was the intelligence community’s assessment that there had been no effort since then to rebuild that enrichment capability. But when Ossoff asked the obvious follow-up — if that was the assessment, then was it also the assessment that Iran nevertheless posed an imminent nuclear threat — Gabbard refused to answer. " Michael D Sellers on substack.

That seems important " since “imminent threat” is a necessary predicate for the President to go to war without congressional approval"

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Thursday, March 19, 2026 - 06:00 am: Edit

Shahed drones and similar things are very vulnerable to bullets. The problem is hitting them. The drones cannot respond to fire with maneuver so that may be easier than it sounds. Still, you're throwing a couple of hundred bullets into the air and they'll fall to Earth you know not where.

The program may have been obliterated but Iran did have a stockpile of enriched uranium and bragged that it would have several nuclear bombs this year. That Uranium has obviously not been recovered thus far.

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Thursday, March 19, 2026 - 07:58 am: Edit

ABC world news had a story of Kurdish Fighters deploying on the northern Border of Iran, and the reporter talked about 5he invasion of Iran with U.S. support.

No numbers or any indication if the Kurds are actually organized into some sort of unit structure.

Certainly looks like the war is moving into a new phase.

By Steve Stewart (Stevestewart) on Thursday, March 19, 2026 - 09:02 am: Edit

Webmom with a shock collar. Be afraid. Be very afraid.

By A David Merritt (Adm) on Thursday, March 19, 2026 - 09:20 am: Edit

A big issue for most navies in the world is range.
Japan and South Korea are built to defend against China and fight in the southwest Pacific. Europe is largely concerned with the North Sea, and the Mediterranean Sea, Turkey with the Med, and Black Sea. China has been working on expanding their reach, and may be able to put a significant force in the Persian Gulf, or may be a paper tiger and can't do that yet. Further more with the reports that Iran is not targeting Chinese ships, China has little reason to get involved, other than as some sort of stunt with Iran "to end the war" and make the US look bad.

The navy that should be close enough, and powerful enough to help would be India.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Thursday, March 19, 2026 - 02:54 pm: Edit

Information Warfare: Iranian Efforts to Deal with Internet Disruption
March 19, 2026: Last month Iran emerged from its self-imposed internet blackout that was used as part of an effort to curb anti-government protests. That January 8-28 blackout was more extreme than any nation had ever endured. Mobile networks, text messaging services, landlines were disabled and Starlink was blocked. When a few domestic services became available, the government removed specific social features, such as comment sections on news sites and chat boxes in online marketplaces.
What did remain operational, for a while at least, was the government controlled and monitored national Intranet. This system was only available inside Iran and users could not use it to contact anyone outside Iran without government permission and monitoring. The current system prevents Iranians from using VPNs or special SIM cards for phones to communicate. Also blocked are chat functions in nonpolitical apps like ridesharing or shopping platforms. Any channel that allows two people to exchange text is seen as a threat.
The Iranian government has its priorities and information control is more important than a functioning economy, growing poverty and the ability of Iranians to assemble to protest government policies or use the internet to discuss these problems with other Iranians or the outside world.
All this suppression came under attack at the end of February when the United States, Israeli and a few other nations declared war on Iran. If the current Iranian government collapses, the attacking coalition should promise prompt revival of internet and messaging service throughout the country. For many Iranians have discovered that the internet is something worth fighting and dying for. A post war Iranian communications net could also benefit from the addition of technologies that are harder to whitelist or block, such as mesh networks and D2C/Direct 2 Consumer explanations that bypass the choke points of state-controlled ISPs/Internet Service Suppliers.
FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Thursday, March 19, 2026 - 02:55 pm: Edit

Special Operations: Israel Takes Control of Iranian Traffic Cameras
March 19, 2026: For years, Israeli intelligence has been gaining access to and decrypting Iranian traffic cameras. With this Israeli intelligence can monitor the movements of individuals for days to ascertain patterns of movement and behavior. In this way Israeli airstrikes, planted bombs or local assassins can be used to eliminate key Iranian personnel. This is one of many tools Israel uses to precisely locate where human targets are, before launching a missile from an aircraft to kill a specific individual. This is how Israel recently killed Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and dozens of senior Iranian government, political and scientific personnel over the years.
Israel also has an extensive network of Israeli Mossad and local Iranian operatives inside Iran. This network has been active for decades. Despite Iranian government efforts to catch, interrogate and imprison or execute these operatives, few have been captured. Some of these operatives are sleeper agents, who go about their lives for years before being activated for a mission.
The Israeli operatives in Iran have taken care of many government and military officials by calling them and telling them that Israeli operatives know where they live and will kill them if they don’t agree to stand aside from their jobs and not oppose a new democratic government. It’s getting to the point where if you’re an Iranian official and Israel haven’t killed you yet it’s a bit insulting
The recent Iranian shutdown of their internet and other communications systems was meant to prevent the Israeli operatives from communicating with Mossad back in Israel. There are probably other communications systems available to Israeli operatives in Iran. Shortwave radio is one option as are custom versions of the ground communications Starlink units.
Israel has regularly used their operatives inside Iran for spectacular successes. One of the more notable ones took place eight years ago when an Israeli Mossad operation got half a ton of top-secret Iranian nuclear weapons program documents out of Iran and back to Israel in less than 24 hours. This provided Iranian leaders with multiple aftershocks. For one thing, most Iranians didn’t care about the document theft. No Iranians were injured in the operation; it was assumed to have been made possible by the widespread corruption in Iran and an Iranian religious dictatorship that seems to care more about destroying Israel than improving the lives of Iranians. When news of the Mossad operation were made public by the Israelis the public opinion polls in Iran showed that most Iranians didn’t care and those that paid any attention to the matter felt it was just another example of how incompetent their government was and why change was needed. The Iranian government was justifiably concerned that publicizing these documents, as Israel did, would lead to the cancellation of the 2015 treaty that lifted sanctions on Iran. The stolen documents showed that the nuclear program did exist and apparently was still underway disguised as many different scientific research projects.
Iran always insisted that it never had a nuclear weapons program even though the Israelis had uncovered much evidence that the program existed and the attitude of most Iranians was that the program existed and why not because Iran had long been the regional superpower. But since the 2015 treaty went into effect the promised economic improvements for most Iranians have not happened and at the end of 2017 that triggered widespread public protests against the religious dictatorship. The Shia clerics who run the government have been arguing openly about how to deal with these problems and now the hardline Shia clerics, who insist that destroying Israel be the main priority of Iran, are humiliated by the nuclear documents theft going public. Some of the hardliners want to do whatever it takes to strike back at Israel but most Iranians see Israel as an unofficial ally in the popular effort to get rid of the religious dictatorship in Iran. This is nothing new. In the wake of the American-British invasion of Iraq in 2003, and quick three weeks overthrow of the Saddam Hussein government, many Iranians openly called for the Americans to come invade Iran and get rid of the religious dictatorship that had been ruling Iran since the 1980s on the promise they would one day get Saddam” for invading Iran in 1980 and starting a war that neither side was able to win. That counted as an Iranian defeat to most Iranians and to make matters worse the chaos of the war allowed Shia clerics to take, and keep, control of the government. Before that Israel and Iran were allies and a growing number of Iranians saw that as a better arrangement than the current one. All this gave little comfort, and not many options, for the Iranian leadership.
The Iranian government preferred to retaliate against Israel indirectly. Iran had long used foreign proxies like Hezbollah or other non-Iranian Islamic terrorists to attack Israel. Iran did not have modern weapons because of decades of sanctions and Iranian leaders were smart enough to realize that Iran itself trying to attack Israel would most likely result in another humiliating Iranian defeat. Israel has anti-missile defenses against Iranian ballistic missiles. Yet Iran has enough of these missiles to attempt a saturation attack on Israel using explosive or chemical warheads. Iran could also use a dirty warhead by adding radioactive material to a high explosive warhead. A few of these missiles landing in Israel, especially in a major urban area, would be a great propaganda victory. But Israel also has ballistic missiles armed with nuclear warheads and, worse, hundreds of modern fighter-bombers that could hit two key economic targets using smart bombs. These two targets are Kharg Island, in the Persian Gulf. This is the main export facility for 90 percent of oil and gas exports. Income from these exports pay for over a third of the government budget and these facilities cannot be rebuilt quickly. The other economic target is Bandar Abbas in southern Iran. This is the main container port handling some 90 percent of containers bringing in foreign goods, like items needed to repair damage to Kharg Island. Bandar Abbas is where all the modern tech and consumer goods arrive. Shutting down Bandar Abbas for months, or more would be quickly felt by most Iranians. With Arab states between Israel and Iran now allowing Israeli airstrikes free passage, the Israeli air strikes are certain to succeed and inflict major damage. That nightmare came true in early 2026 when American and Israeli aircraft began a sustained bombing campaign against Iran.

FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Thursday, March 19, 2026 - 03:21 pm: Edit

That last FYEO post (traffic cams) is a goldmine of interesting bits of information.