The Guardian has long been identified in this topic as a source so biased as to be invalid.

Anyone who sites the Guardian to support their cause has lost the argument.

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Monday, March 23, 2026 - 08:11 am: Edit

This post by CMC is misleading in two significant respects:

First, in the 1970’s, the western nations, particularly the U.S., were dependent on a much greater proportion of their respective energy supplies than today.

More importantly, the nations that use much more of the Oil from Iran is China and India. As was discussed earlier in this topic, China is both the largest customer of a Iranian oil and is dependent on it for the majority of its oil imports since the loss of the Venezuela oil.

Less than 2% of US oil imports, and about 10% of European oil imports is a very large change from what it was in the 1970’s.

The second reason this is misleading is because of the huge changes happening in China.

With the withdrawal of many of the western world’s largest corporations from China, there are reported to be disruptions in Its economy. It hasn’t made the news yet, but it would not be a huge surprise to see a consequent reduction in China s demand for oil.

It should also be remembered that the Guardian has a large bias that does impact its reporting.

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Monday, March 23, 2026 - 08:12 am: Edit

Sorry, I was typing when SVC posted.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, March 23, 2026 - 10:26 am: Edit

As I said before, if oil from the Gulf is blo, whoever was buying it has to go to the world spot market and bid high enough to get somebody else’s oil. More bidders means higher prices.

Remember that when the media says “oil just hit $90” te are talking about the spot market. Ninety percent of oil is sold on long term contracts, at seriously lower prices. Long term contracts have to guess at prices months from now.

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Monday, March 23, 2026 - 10:52 am: Edit

In other news, CVN-78 Gerald R. Ford has put in to Souda Bay, Crete, for repairs. The laundry room fire destroyed over a hundred berths and displaced some 600 sailors, who have been sleeping on tables, floors, etc. since the fire. Compounding the misery, the ship's toilets are semi-functional at this point. Ford has been on deployment for nine months now, and this combined with the issues listed above have frayed nerves rather severely.

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Monday, March 23, 2026 - 10:59 am: Edit

This morning, Pres. Trump said that the U.S. and Iran have held "very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East".

Iran's gov't has not officially commented on Trump's comment, but the semi-official Mehr news agency has denied there was a dialogue between Tehran and Washington.

The Israeli gov't has officially remained silent on the matter as well, but has unofficially signaled that they would not be bound by any such agreement between the U.S. and Iran.

By Carl-Magnus Carlsson (Hardcore) on Monday, March 23, 2026 - 11:17 am: Edit

The copy and paste seems to have eaten the citation marks in my previous post. Here is a correction.
These are actual quotes by the head of the International Energy Agency as reported by the newspaper:

"At that time, in each [oil] crisis, the world has lost about 5 million barrels per day, both of them together 10 million barrels per day. And after that we all know that there were major economic problems around the world. And today we lost 11 million barrels – so more than two major oil shocks put together,” he said.

"Plus after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the gas markets – especially in Europe – we lost about 75 billion consumer metres (BCM). And as of now, as a result of this crisis, we lost about 140BCM, almost twice. So the situation is, if we want to put in a context, this crisis as it stands now, two oil crises and one gas crash put all together.")

They are taken from an intervju at the Australian Press club which was filmed and now is on youtube.
Thr quotes can be found at 2.27 min mark. https://www.youtube.com/live/Ou-0lscXBY4?is=3Wl3SnYSYW-fGTMm

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Monday, March 23, 2026 - 01:12 pm: Edit

We now have clarification on the claim of talks between the U.S. and Iran.

Pres. Trump is now saying that the U.S. is talking with a "respected Iranian leader". Trump claimed U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner had held talks with this individual on Sunday. He did not say who that was, but said the U.S. has not talked to the new Supreme Leader (Mojtaba Khamenei).

We have a clarification from Iran as well: Iranian parliament speaker Qalibaf posted on X, "No negotiations have been held with the US. Fakenews is used to manipulate the financial and oil markets."

It's entirely possible that one or both sides are lying. It's also possible that both sides are telling the truth: the "respected Iranian leader" could be negotiating without backing or authorization by the Iranian gov't.

Meanwhile, we also have clarification from Israel, albeit by action rather than words: they launched major strikes on Tehran, including the energy infrastructure that Trump said would not be attacked during negotiations.

By Carl-Magnus Carlsson (Hardcore) on Monday, March 23, 2026 - 02:45 pm: Edit

Jessica, NK is a curious little nation, I would not say they are irrational, however. The Great leader really only care about himself, and his family. (Selfish and ruthless. Classic strongman trait.) He uses the state to enrich himself, which is rational behaviour. The people live in an information bubble where all they see is propaganda. Because of this they work to further his interests, not theirs. Sad, but still rational behaviour. What is weird though is how strongly people are warped by the propaganda to form an emotional attachment to their leader. One could think the exaggerations and reports of the improbable feats of the dictator (Kim Jung Il was a godlike golfer) would make them stop and think for a minute. No. Instead they cried inconsolably when Kim Jung Il passed away (as can be seen on youtube)!
South Korea use loudspeakers on the border to try inject a bit of reality in the minds of the Nks but that have little effect. It's a personality cult and it's members won't easily admit to it. That would be a blow to their ego, something which is rational to protect.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, March 23, 2026 - 03:12 pm: Edit

The war ends one of two ways.

The Iranian Ayatollahate is overthrown.

Trump decides he's not going to get a new Iranian government and just gets bored and ends the attacks, or severely scales them back.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, March 23, 2026 - 03:43 pm: Edit

Infantry: Russia Disrespects Rural Soldiers
March 23, 2026: The Russian war in Ukraine has become unpopular with most Russians. From the beginning, few Russians were interested in volunteering to join the military and fight in Ukraine. Russian recruiters soon discovered that poor rural Russians were willing to take a chance as a soldier in Ukraine if the financial inducements were high enough. Last year nearly $8 billion was spent on signing bonuses for new soldiers. Over 95 percent of the soldiers came from poor rural areas where the bonuses could buy more than in a major city. These bonuses were life-changing for many rural families. Once a rural soldier was killed, wife or parents received up to $100,000.
There is one critical flaw in this compensation system. The rural soldiers, especially from particularly poor regions, are not trained, treated or used as professional soldiers, but as highly expendable men used in expensive, in the number of casualties suffered, operations. The government or media praise these dead soldiers received is that they, as rural men, often from ethnic communities that were once known as fierce warriors. The poverty and lack of economic opportunities is rarely mentioned.
Even with all this money spent on recruiting, after four years of war in Ukraine and over 1.3 million soldiers killed, disabled or missing in combat, Russia is having problems recruiting soldiers. Russia was able to recruit 400,000 last year and expects to do the same this year. In the last two years, new recruits were often foreigners, including South Americans, Cubans, Africans and many countries in Asia. Recruiting standards have been lowered in Russia, where prisons have been emptied and alcoholics, drug addicts and the mentally ill have been induced, tricked or forced to sign a contract to join the military. Recruiters have been particularly successful in rural Russia where good jobs are scarce and alcoholism is rampant. Recruiters will sometimes visit a venue that serves alcohol and buy drinks for likely new recruits. Once these inebriated men have signed, the recruiter will often have to enlist local police to go where the new soldiers lived and tell the now sober men that they are in the army and take them away. Soldiers recruited in this way are not expected to last long in Ukraine, so their physical or mental condition is not important.
Recruiters have other problems to deal with. Twenty years ago, Russian leaders were informed that the rapidly aging Russian population was not only shrinking but was not fit for any major economic or military efforts. Some 60 percent of Russians were elderly, children, or disabled. Out of 20 million males of working age, one million were in prison, a million in the armed forces, five million were unemployed or unemployable due to poor education, health or attitude, four million were chronic alcoholics, and a million were drug addicts. Thus, there is something of a labor shortage, with plenty of jobs for women and immigrants. The birth rate is below replacement level, and a declining population needs more immigrants just to keep things going. Improving medical care, and health habits, especially treating alcoholism and drug use, was a government priority, in order to raise the lifespan of Russian males. All of this made the idea of a smaller all-volunteer military more attractive. Too many of the current troops were drunks, addicted to drugs or just unreliable. Volunteers must be paid much more, but their discipline is much higher. Russian officers are very impressed with what the British, Japanese and Americans have done with all-volunteer armed forces and want to emulate them. That never happened.

FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, March 23, 2026 - 03:44 pm: Edit

Air Defense: American Domestic Drone Threats
March 22, 2026: The United States has an ongoing problem with illegal drone use along its southern border. Most of the drones coming from Mexico are carrying illegal narcotics and other contraband, like weapons. Mexican drug cartels find the drones an easy way to get contraband across the border with little risk to cartel members. More recently illegal drone traffic near the El Paso, Texas border shut down airport operations for hours.
Airport disruption by drones has been a problem in other countries. Britain had something of an aviation crisis in late 2018 when someone allegedly flew a quadcopter near the runway of Gatwick airport near London and did so several times. Over a hundred people, including police and airport pilots, spotted the quadcopter between December 19 and 21. Some quadcopter sightings near airports turn out to be a plastic bag being blown about but this one was apparently the real deal. Initial efforts to deal with the situation failed and over 140,000 passengers had their flights delayed or canceled. The ultimate cost of the never identified mystery quadcopter operator was over $66 million.
The airport initially brought in an inexpensive and widely used AeroScope drone detector. AeroScope is made by DJI, the Chinese firm that builds most of the quadcopters on the market. DJI includes a microchip in its quadcopters that contains information about the quadcopter operator in the control signal. AeroScope is a briefcase size device that uses two small antennas to monitor for the presence of a DJI control signal within five kilometers. If a control signal is detected, the AeroScope display shows the AeroScope operator data about the DJI quadcopter including location, altitude, speed, direction, takeoff location, operator location, and an identifier such as a registration or serial number.
The Gatwick quadcopter was either not a DJI model or one that had been altered, which was not easy to do but possible by someone familiar with drone control hardware and software. The military was consulted and they brought in one of their recently acquired Drone Dome systems. These cost $3.4 million each and consist of a 360 degree radar system, an electro-optical day/night surveillance unit and a wideband detector for most frequencies drones use. With all this Drone Dome can reliably detect any small quadcopter or fixed-wing drone Unmanned Aerial Vehicles within 3,500 meters. Most quadcopters and drones encountered are larger and these can be detected out to ten kilometers. Once spotted, Drone Dome can use a focused jamming signal that will disrupt any radio control signals and force the drone to crash or operate erratically. Drone Dome has an optional laser gun that can be aimed by Drone Dome to destroy the drone at ranges up to 2,000 meters. In a combat zone, you can also employ machine-guns to bring down the drone. The British military did not purchase the laser option but was able to reliably detect all manner of small quadcopters from several manufacturers during tests earlier in 2019. It was not revealed if Drone Dome detected anything at Gatwick but the drone sightings stopped and Gatwick has since brought in a similar system to be permanently available for illegal drones operating around the airport.
The same Israeli firm Rafael that developed the Iron Dome system for effectively and economically destroying rockets and shells from mortar and artillery in 2005 had, by 2017, developed a version optimized to detect and shoot down small drones. Drone Dome is a lot cheaper because it does not use $90,000 Tamir guided missiles to intercept rockets or shells headed for residential areas or military targets. Instead, Drone Dome uses a high powered laser that can destroy or disable most drones. Drone Dome uses a radar that can detect most small drones at ranges of up to 30 kilometers at altitudes of 10 meters to 10,000 meters. Drone Dome is not a radical development but part of a trend. Since 2010 Israeli firms have developed a growing number of AUD/Anti-Drone defense systems largely because Israel is a nation that is most often threatened by hostile use of drones, particularly small commercial ones increasingly used by Islamic terrorists and criminal gangs.
What makes Drone Dome different is its heavy use of electronic sensors to detect and jam the control signals used by drones, leaving the laser as a last resort. Several AUD systems are already in service and effective because they are good at detecting drones electronically and either jamming those control signals or taking over the control signals and capturing it by making the drone land. Troops in Iraq and Syria were asking for AUD systems that used lasers and better drone detection systems as well those with jammers to disable drones. There is a need for AUDs that can detect and destroy drones that do not use control signals and basically go on pre-programmed missions. This can be to take photos or deliver a small explosive. Usually, it is to take photos and return. Drone Dome is one of several AUD systems equipped to detect and locate drones operating in pre-programmed mode and destroy or disable them quietly with a vehicle-mounted laser.
AUDs similar to Drone Dome also use one or more radar systems and one or more sensor systems for detecting drone control signals or visual images s0 that pattern recognition software can quickly identify what it is. While commercial drones are more common, the basic design principles have not changed. AUDs are constantly evolving to better detect and disable or destroy unwanted drones. The best ones are recent models that tend to be very expensive and used only for extreme situations, like drone defense in combat zones. Airports, especially the large ones, are going to have to join the military by buying the latest AUDs, which at least lowers the AUD price and inspires even faster innovation and development.

FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, March 23, 2026 - 03:45 pm: Edit

Leadership: Successful Ukrainian Corps Reform
March 22, 2026: Recently Ukraine completed the conversion of its ground forces to a Corps organization, with ten Corps. Previously Ukraine had used division headquarters which controlled two or three combat brigades and several support units, including drone battalions. The Corps organization quickly proved its worth with increased Russian casualties and fewer Ukrainian losses.
Last year the Ukrainian army began reorganizing its ground forces into ten corps. In doing this Ukraine reduced the number of subordinate units a commander must deal with. Because of these reforms Ukraine was able to defeat Russian efforts to carry out offensives rapidly in Donetsk, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia provinces. The corps organization enabled the Ukrainians to rapidly create formations of troops for offensive and counterattack operations.
A decade ago, Russia, in an effort to promote morale and national pride, Russia modified a 2008 reorganization to reconstitute the famous, during World War II and the Cold War, 1st Guards Tank Army. This revived unit was stationed in western Russia, the better to frighten European countries that were invaded during World War II or threatened by it during the Cold War by the original 1st Guards Tank Army. The latest version was a showcase unit and the first to receive new tanks and other weapons as well as the best troops available.
The new 1st Guards Tank Army is actually remarkably similar to its World War II counterpart. Back then mechanized tank or infantry forces were based on brigades. These were organized into division-sized mechanized or tank corps. Thus the World War II 1st Guards Tank Army consisted of the 8th Guards Mechanized Corps with three mechanized infantry brigades and one tank brigade and the 11th Guards Tank Corps of three tank brigades and one mechanized infantry brigade. The 2015 version consisted of one tank division, with two tank regiments. There was one mechanized infantry division with one tank regiment, three mechanized infantry regiments, one independent tank brigade and one independent mechanized infantry brigade.
During the Cold War the 1st Guards Tank Army consisted of two tank divisions and one mechanized infantry division. All three divisions of the 1st Guards Tank Army had about the same number of troops, some 13,000 troops and about 300 tanks. All three versions had supporting troops, artillery, anti-aircraft, engineers, supply and so on.
The World War II era brigades had few support units and depended on the corps and army for supply, maintenance, artillery and so on. In 2008 Russia reorganized its army by replacing divisions with more self-sufficient brigades. When that change was complete several years later the combat forces consisted of 55 combat brigades, 33 mechanized infantry, four tank and 22 Spetsnaz, airborne or air assault units. These brigades were about half the size of American combat brigades and about a third of the personnel were conscripts who served for one year. The skill levels of troops in these brigades were much lower than for comparable troops in American or British brigades and elite brigades in French, German and some other Western forces. There were also 28 combat support brigades eight armed with multi-barrel rocket launchers like the U.S. MLRS, nine with short range ballistic missiles, ten with anti-aircraft missile systems and one engineer brigade.
Russia, like the United States, did not get rid of divisions as divisions. Instead, divisions became a headquarters with some support units that could handle two or more combat brigades.
FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, March 23, 2026 - 03:46 pm: Edit

Procurement: Cryptocurrency Fuels The Russian War Effort
March 21, 2026: A year ago Russia created a method for bypassing currency problems imposed by the economic sanctions. The solution was the A7A5 stablecoin cryptocurrency that evaded the long dominant dollar and SWIFT system for global money transfers. A7A5 is distributed via Grinex, a cryptocurrency exchange based in the Central Asian nation of Kyrgyzstan. Last year A7A5 handled nearly $90 billion in transactions. This includes many Russian civilians using their ruble based credit and debit cards for everyday transactions.
Since Russia invaded Ukraine four years ago, the West’s retaliation has been devastating for the Russian economy. Western sanctions and damage inflicted by Ukrainian drone and missile attacks ravaged many sectors of the economy, especially energy production. As the war progressed Russia encountered growing energy shortages. A major cause of this was increased Bitcoin mining. To create a new Bitcoin requires a lot of computer power and enormous amounts of electricity. Russia partially financed its war in Ukraine via extensive Bitcoin creation, or mining. The energy requirements are so high that Russia has had to limit the use of electricity by industries and even some civilians.
Before 2023 Russia exported electricity to China, now it imports it from China and other countries. These energy shortages have diminished oil and natural gas production. While the government promotes and protects Bitcoin mining, it has been unable to control the number of Bitcoin miners or limit their access to the national electrical supply. Bitcoin miners can afford to bribe local officials to leave them alone. The national government has been unable to control this, and the result is a runaway electricity shortage that randomly cripples portions of the economy. Russia has created a monster that it cannot control or destroy. The only thing that will make the Russian Bitcoin miners vulnerable is an end to the Ukraine War.
Bitcoin first appeared sixteen years ago and proceeded to have an enormous impact on national economies and criminal activity. Bitcoin, like A7A5, is a cryptocurrency. This currency is based on software, not paper notes and coins. Bitcoin is one of the first and most widely used. There are online markets for buying and selling bitcoins. Anyone can establish an online account with a Bitcoin wallet. Others can send Bitcoin to their Bitcoin wallet without knowing who has the password that controls that wallet. It takes a lot of effort to find out who owns a Bitcoin wallet and even governments don’t have the resources to monitor all Bitcoin owners. Apparently, Bitcoin wallet owners can be discovered if the owner is not very careful or the investigator is sufficiently determined and persistent.
Several nations subsequently adopted the use of Bitcoin. For example, in 2022 the Central African Republic or CAR was the first African country to adopt cryptocurrency as its official currency. North Korea continued stealing cryptocurrency from online exchanges to finance North Korean government operations.
Bitcoin is a digital currency or cryptocurrency. Bitcoin is decentralized and independent of any government or institutional control. A Bitcoin is created by completing complex calculations that are captured in what is called a block of information. The new block is verified as unique by rapidly comparing it to all other blocks in a publicly accessible database called the blockchain. The creator or miner of the new block is issued two or more Bitcoin for each new block. Currently each Bitcoin is worth about $71,000. All Bitcoins currently in circulation are worth over 2,000 trillion dollars. That’s twice the value of annual global GDP. The blockchain software automatically adjusts the prices for existing and new Bitcoin to prevent inflation and maintain fair prices that anyone can verify by accessing the public block chain. Since Bitcoin was invented sixteen years ago, Bitcoin mining has become a major user of electrical power and cloud computer networks. Bitcoin exists to deal with the inadequacies of traditional currencies. Bitcoin uses a decentralized system that is controlled by no one and everyone. Users deal directly with the blockchain rather than through a bank or other financial institution or government agency. Anyone can consult the blockchain to verify the existence and validity of each individual block and the two or more Bitcoin each block contains.
Criminals, financial analysts, government analysts and curious individuals are constantly examining portions of the blockchain to verify it, improve it or find ways to corrupt and exploit it. All these users must deal with the fact that their activities are visible to anyone who bothers to look. Criminals trying to tamper with the blockchain can always be detected, if not immediately and most are eventually caught unless they take refuge in havens like North Korea or Cuba. Some countries like China maintain and protect groups of hackers who occasionally go after the blockchain. If any of them ever succeed they must share their discovery with the Chinese government that continues to protect them. Any blockchain-based scam is eventually, and often quickly, discovered.
The blockchain replaces banks and makes theft from the blockchain apparently impossible. No proven theft from the blockchain has been proven yet. Many banks have added blockchain access to their customer service menu. While the blockchain replaces banks in some regards, it was meant to be used as another bank service, one that is constantly audited. Stock markets now list Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies among their offerings
In 2019 UN investigators accused North Korea of using Marine China, a Hong Kong based blockchain firm, to handle North Korean bitcoin and make possible laundering of money, usually cryptocurrency, stolen by North Korean hackers. These thefts amounted to about $2 billion dollars in the last year. Marine China enabled North Korea to convert stolen bitcoin to cash via at least 5,000 small transactions. The small transactions were believed to be more difficult for investigators to spot and trace back to North Korea. That did not work.
By 2024 governments possessed $80 billion worth of Bitcoin. This was less than three percent of the Bitcoin available. Most of this was obtained while seizing assets from criminal organizations. Some Bitcoin has been legalized. The south Asian nation of Bhutan uses its vast hydroelectric power resources to generate Bitcoin. Bhutan generates more hydroelectric power than it needs. Currently Bhutan has the excess power to generate nearly $800 million in Bitcoin to help finance the government. The Central American nation of El Salvador purchases about $200 million in Bitcoin a year to use as its national currency. China holds $6.74 billion in Bitcoin seized from a defunct Ponzi Scheme. China won’t say what it is doing with this Bitcoin and that means it’s using the Bitcoin for clandestine operations like espionage and bribery. China is infamous for using bribery to deal with problems it encounters around the world.
Ukraine raised over $42 billion in Bitcoin from donors worldwide to pay for military operations and economic reconstruction. Other nations like Germany, India, Finland, Britain use their Bitcoin fund government operations, including establishing a digital reserve fund or, in the case of Britain, to support police operations.
The United States, with over $7 billion worth, is the largest holder of seized Bitcoin and auctions off using some of it to fund government operations while retaining most of it for future contingencies. This American Bitcoin is sort of an emergency fund.

FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, March 23, 2026 - 03:46 pm: Edit

Special Operations: Chinese Overseas Subversion Operations
March 21, 2026: China has established a network sustained by thousands of groups around the world that strive to make the Chinese Communist Party acceptable and respectable, and to assist diplomatic, economic and espionage efforts. Each of these groups works to improve the image of China and all manner of Chinese activities in their vicinity. The 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre required Chinese groups worldwide to try and explain what happened and lessen the blemish on China’s image and reputation. This worked better in some countries than in others.
Meanwhile, some of the countries where these Chinese operations were most active found themselves under scrutiny and counterintelligence pressure. Over the past two decades American counter-intelligence efforts have been snagging more Chinese spies. This may be more because of increased spying effort by China than increased effectiveness by the FBI and CIA. For example, a former U.S. Army analyst was arrested as he was boarding an airliner headed for China. He had a one-way ticket. In his possession were electronic versions of classified army manuals. Another recent development was the indictment of a Chinese born man for stealing $300 million worth of trade secrets on how to manufacture new organic insecticides for use in China.
Incidents like this are examples of China's use of industrial espionage to turn their country into the mightiest industrial and military power on the planet. For over three decades, China has been attempting to do what the Soviet Union never accomplished; steal Western technology and then use it to move ahead of the West. The Soviets lacked the many essential supporting industries found in the West most founded and run by entrepreneurs and were never able to get all the many pieces needed to match Western technical accomplishments. Soviet copies of American computers, for example, were crude, less reliable and less powerful. Same with their jet fighters, tanks and warships.
China gets around this by making it profitable for Western firms to set up factories in China, where Chinese managers and workers can be taught how to make things right, both at the same time. China allows thousands of their best students to go to the United States to study. While most of these students will stay in America, where there are better jobs and more opportunities, some will come back to China and bring American business and technical skills with them. Finally, China energetically uses the thousand grains of sand approach to espionage. This involves China trying to get all Chinese going overseas, and those of Chinese ancestry living outside the motherland, to spy for China, if only a tiny bit.
This approach to espionage is nothing new. Other nations have used similar systems for centuries. What is unusual is the scale of the Chinese effort. Backing it all up is a Chinese intelligence bureaucracy back home that is huge, with nearly 100,000 people working just to keep track of the many Chinese overseas, and what they could, or should, be trying to grab for the motherland. It begins when Chinese intelligence officials examine who is going overseas, and for what purpose. Chinese citizens cannot leave the country, legally, without the state security organizations being notified. The intel people are not being asked to give permission. They are being alerted in case they want to have a talk with students, tourists or businesspeople before they leave the country. Interviews are often held when these people come back as well.
Those who might be coming in contact with useful information are asked to remember what they saw, or bring back souvenirs. Over 100,000 Chinese students go off to foreign universities each year. Even more go abroad as tourists or on business. Most of these people were not asked to actually act as spies, but simply to share with Chinese government officials, who are not always identified as intelligence personnel, whatever information they have obtained. The more ambitious of these people are getting caught and prosecuted. But the majority, who are quite casual, and, individually, bring back relatively little, are almost impossible to catch.
Like the Russians, the Chinese are also employing the traditional methods, using people with diplomatic immunity to recruit spies, and offering cash, or whatever, to get people to sell them information. This is still effective, and when combined with the thousand grains of sand methods, brings in lots of secrets. The final ingredient is a shadowy venture capital operation, sometimes called Project 863, that offers money for Chinese entrepreneurs who will turn the stolen technology into something real. No questions asked. If you can get back to China with the secrets, you are home free and potentially very rich.
But there are some legal problems. When the Chinese steal some technology and produce something that the Western victims can prove was stolen via patents and prior use of the technology, legal action can make it impossible, or very difficult, to sell anything using the stolen tech, outside of China. For that reason, the Chinese like to steal military technology. This kind of knowledge rarely leaves China. And in some cases, like manufacturing technology, there's an advantage to not selling it outside of China. Because China is still a communist dictatorship, the courts do as they are told, and they are rarely told to honor foreign patent claims.
FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, March 23, 2026 - 03:47 pm: Edit

Surface Forces : Chinese Indo Pacific Operations In 2025
March 20, 2026: Chinese military, mainly naval, operations in 2025 concentrated on several areas. These include the South China Sea, Taiwan, trade routes across the Pacific, the Persian Gulf and Europe. China is also making use of the Sea Route along the north Russian coast. China is also developing an aircraft carrier fleet. By the end of 2025 China had three carriers, one of which entered service in late 2025. The Chinese navy has also been active off Japan and South Korea, just to remind these neighbors that the Chinese fleet was growing and keeping its ships at sea for longer periods.
In the west Pacific China has militarized more of the Spratly Islands; Fiery Cross Reef, Mischief Reef and Subi Reef. Mischief Reef is the largest at 663 hectares. Subi Reef is about 70 percent the size of Mischief and Fiery Cross about half the size of Mischief Reef. All these reefs have air strips and docking facilities. Subi Reef recently received two radar domes like those on the other two reefs, which gives the Chinese near total radar coverage of the seas and airspace around the Spratly Islands. All three reefs have had their surface area expanded and built up to include upgrades to ELINT/Electronic Intelligence systems, weapons emplacements, housing and related infrastructure. Empty weapons and vehicle emplacements on these islands enable the Chinese to quickly fly or ship in vehicle-mounted weapons and radar/fire control sets. The emplacements can also handle anti-ship and anti-aircraft missile launchers.
Last year saw the Chinese ramming Filipino coast guard ships as well as using water cannons against them. The ongoing territorial disputes with China in the South China Sea continue to escalate as the Chinese openly and aggressively drive Filipino navy ships from areas the Philippines have long controlled. In 2016 the Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Netherlands ruled that, under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, the Philippines won their case in 2013 that Chinese claims and activities in the South China Sea were unlawful. China had claimed 90 percent of the South China Sea. Over the last sixteen years China has been increasingly aggressive while asserting those claims. While this recently escalated to using water cannon and ramming, past efforts are more tangible like the artificial islands built throughout the South China Sea and garrisoned with heavily armed Chinese forces.
The United States and other Western and local allies like Australia, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and Singapore send warships and aircraft into the disputed areas to confront the Chinese. The message is that if China wants to start World War 3 in the South China Sea, the opposition will be substantial and include most of China’s neighbors.
The Philippines increased its military presence and activities in the South China Sea, especially around the Spratly Islands and Scarborough Shoal, where it claims sovereignty over parts of the disputed waters and features. The country has also received support from its allies, such as the United States, Japan, and Australia, in conducting joint exercises and patrols, as well as providing military assistance and equipment. However, China has also intensified its operations and use of coercion in the region, deploying more ships, aircraft, and missiles, and building new structures and facilities on the artificial islands it occupies.
The risk of miscalculation and escalation remains high as China continues to ignore a 2016 ruling by the international Permanent Court of Arbitration. China had previously agreed to abide by the terms of the court ruling but denied knowledge of any previous agreement when the Philippines resisted Chinese aggression in the South China Sea. The international support the Philippines received to confront China has stalled the Chinese plans to occupy and fortify all the islands in the South China Sea,
The Philippines has maintained a balance between its alliance with the United States and its economic ties with China. The Philippines reaffirmed its commitment to the Mutual Defense Treaty and the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement with the United States, which provide for mutual defense and security cooperation, as well as access to military bases and facilities. The country has also welcomed the U.S. support for its maritime claims and rights in the South China Sea, as well as the U.S. sanctions against Chinese officials and entities involved in the disputes. However, the Philippines has also sought to improve diplomatic relations with China, which is its largest trading partner and a major source of investment. The Philippines sought to manage and resolve the territorial disputes through dialogue and diplomacy, rather than confrontation and arbitration.


FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, March 23, 2026 - 03:48 pm: Edit

Forces: Russian Combat Techniques In Ukraine
March 20, 2026: The primary Russian combat technique was quickly overcoming shortcomings that only became obvious once they were under fire. For example, Russian troops entered combat in 2022 with an improvised, under fire, tactical radio network. On paper Russia was supposed to have a modern tactical radio system, but in reality, corruption in the military-industrial complex prevented that from happening. For a while the Russians used black-market Starlink systems until the Ukrainians complained to SpaceX and the Russian Starlink access was turned off. This left Russian units operating without radios to coordinate, organize or carry out attacks or defensive operations. Russian troops are still trying to improvise their way out of this mess.
There were other problems, like a lack of coordination between air force bombing attacks and Russian troops on the ground. Before taking off, pilots would be briefed on potential targets. Pilots marked their maps and went off seeking targets to bomb. Sometimes Russian troops had mo0ved into the target area and got hit by their own aircraft. This sort of thing only occurred in the first year or so of the war. Once drones became the prominent weapon for both sides, aircraft were no longer used for tactical bombing operations.
Drones are the major military development of the Ukraine War. Most NATO nations are scrambling to adapt their armed forces to drone warfare. The NATO nations that border Russia or Ukraine are the most eager to do this. NATO members farthest from Ukraine, like the United States are having a difficult time implementing the lessons of drone warfare. The Americans have one advantage. The U.S. Army has developed a rapid way of noting new combat techniques used by the enemy, and getting that information, along with successful ways to cope with the enemy practices, back to units preparing to fight in some future war. This is done when each combat unit, headed for combat, gets a month of training. There is always emphasis on how the enemy is currently fighting. The training is carried out with troops using lasers attached to their weapons, and laser detectors attached to their clothing. Thus, if they are hit by the enemy, they know they are out of the fight. In addition, each soldier carries a transponder, which records their position throughout the exercise. After each training exercise, the instructors can show where everyone was, and point out who was not where they were supposed to be. These post-exercise briefings are often the most valuable part of the training, since it's what you don't know, or do right, that is most likely to get you killed. These training exercises also use American troops dressed and trained to operate like the enemy. There are also civilians, who speak the language of the combat zone the troops are headed for, and trained to do role playing exercises with the troops, to give them a realistic taste of what they will be facing for a year.
For the infantry, it's not enough to know your own combat techniques. The more you know about how the enemy operates, the easier it is to negate their techniques and defeat them. In the last century, armies have sought to distribute knowledge of enemy techniques to their own troops as quickly as possible, especially to new troops or units entering combat for the first time. Currently, the U.S. Army and Marines gather data on enemy techniques and get it distributed very quickly, using Internet tools the troops are comfortable with. But the information also goes back to the United States, and other areas where U.S. combat troops are stationed, so everyone can stay current. Thus, if a Taliban unit employs a new combat technique, they have to assume that all American and NATO troops in Afghanistan will know about that trick within days, if not hours. In effect, the foreign troops have better knowledge of how the various Taliban contingents fight, than the Taliban themselves who don't have as effective a system for passing around combat knowledge. Ukrainians with combat experience and proficiency in conducting drone operations are als0 passing on that information and experiences to their NATO supporters.

FYEO

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Monday, March 23, 2026 - 04:27 pm: Edit

Concerning the us/iran talks, it is possible that the”leader” of an Iranian faction is a descendant of the the deposed government from 1979.

Not the first time its been done.

The fact that the supposed talks have not been concluded may be a sign that one or more of the term’s hasn’t been reached yet.

When it has, the faction (in cooperation with the CIA) will have a check book funded by the united states, and a host of hired help to fill the ranks of the liberation army.

It is to be hoped that this time the new iranian government will be less likely to adopt the death squad/secret police tactics that alienated the general population.

By Extreme Proportions Dolls on Monday, March 23, 2026 - 04:27 pm: Edit

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By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Monday, March 23, 2026 - 07:23 pm: Edit

So, I see mention of cryptocurrency in one of the FYEOs above. Friendly reminder: the two categories of people pushing cryptocurrency - and pushing for politicians to support cryptocurrency - are crooks and conmen.

A group called Fairshake supports the crypto "industry." It wants politicians to give "blockchain innovators the ability to develop their networks under a clearer regulatory and legal framework." They didn't mention that the only area where blockchain is the best solution is crime, especially kidnappers collecting their ransom anonymously. For everything else, there are better solutions not using blockchain. Basically, blockchain is a big transaction log. Computers are very good at keeping transaction logs. Mastercard processes 400 million transactions a day and has no problem doing so.

What blockchain adds to the mix is doing it secretly, so no one can find out who transferred money where. That is the magic ingredient that criminals want. Normal businesses very much want an accurate record of who transferred how much to whom and when. They don't want it to be anonymous. The other group that supports blockchain are the people and companies in the crypto "industry" who are convincing ordinary people to buy a product that is at its heart, a Ponzi scheme, where the underlying product has no intrinsic value. Crypto is sometimes compared to stocks, but the comparison is false. Buying a share of stock gives you a claim to a certain percentage of a company's profit in the form of its dividends (or possibly future dividends for a young company). Crypto doesn't pay dividends or interest. It is a bet that someone else is willing to pay more than you did for your coin.

By on Monday, March 23, 2026 - 09:12 pm: Edit

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By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, March 23, 2026 - 09:47 pm: Edit

I have never invested in crypto, never considered it for more than a minute, never recommended it. Same for fine art, cases of expensive booze, numistmatic coins, antique sculpture, or collectable anything.

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Monday, March 23, 2026 - 10:18 pm: Edit

People who fail to learn from history, are doomed to repeat it.

There was a con, actually a ponzie scheme, that occurred long before Ponzie was born.

It was called the Great South Seas Bubble.

Long history, I will make it short:

Back during the age of discovery, 15th-16century s, paper money had been discredited by France(another story) so they started selling shares in a company south Seas company that promised to make money trading with people in the Spanish colonies of south and central America, and the Pacific Ocean.

Only they didn’t.

They paid off their early investors with higher than preomised dividends ands return of principal.

They used new investors money to repay the original investors principal and added dividends.

Then repeated the process.

Became fabulously successful until they ran out of new investors, and couldn’t continue to pay back the principal and such.

Sure, they made money, and lots of castles and manors in england got built… but the last round of investors, those that reinvested all they had, lost it all.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, March 23, 2026 - 10:48 pm: Edit

I think I'm going to start selling shares in our next game and paying 300% returns.

By Douglas Lampert (Dlampert) on Tuesday, March 24, 2026 - 12:46 am: Edit

Or you could sell 25,000% of a game and produce a wargame that no one will buy where Hitler is the hero and the rules guarantee that he wins.

When no one buys it, you can keep all the extra invested money above the first 100% that was actually spent on the game.