There is, apparently, something happening we cannot see that is intended to install a new democracy government in Iran.

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Tuesday, March 31, 2026 - 09:30 pm: Edit

I'd love to believe that. Problem is I don't.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Tuesday, March 31, 2026 - 10:13 pm: Edit

I am sure it is happening, the question is whether whoever Trump is talking with can actually get installed into power without 30 divisions of US troops and half a million casualties.

The key is the IRGC. No new democracy gets installed unless they are removed from the path. We see signs all the time they are eroding, more and more of their troops walking away, more and more civilians telling the IRGC to get lost, but I don't know that it's going to reach the tipping point any time. I think we all hope it does, for the good of Iran.

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Tuesday, March 31, 2026 - 10:16 pm: Edit

William Jockusc:

There are reports (some credible, others that are not) of activities in Iran that are not being widely reported in the MSM.

It may be months or years before the full story finally gets revealed, and then only in scholarly sources such as peer reviewed journals long after the fact.

An example was the reports in Europe of popular protests in Iran that were suppressed in a variety of ways. The death toll was said to be high(estimates vary, depending on the source. The highest number I saw reported back then, since January 2026, subsequent reports place the deaths at 30,000. At this point, I am not aware of any “reputable “ source that claim to have a verifiable number.

On a different front, the Kurds are reported to be willing to “accept” territory in northern Iran in exchange foe assistance in setting up a Kurdish state. Not everyone is pleased, as it almost certainly promises border conflicts with Turkey, Syria, Iraq, and possibly other nations.

The family of the former Shah of Iran is engaged in a bidding process with the Trump administration… the exact nature and scope not publicly revealed. (Note: this might be a red herring. Something to provoke the IIRG into responding, which in turn just reveals new targets for airstrikes.)


Finally, there are supposed to be 31 independent guerrilla groups in Iran under the so called Mosaic plan. The theory is that they will continue to resist long after the religious leadership in Iran is defeated, gone or killed.

Once these 31 groups exhaust their ammunition, resources and or their personnel, whoever is left in charge of these groups will start to look for ways to resupply, and some of them might be for sale to the highest bidder.

If President Trump can get these “Mosaic groups” to fight each other, the pacification of Iran might be come to pass.

I am very much in agreement with and hope for 5he best. My problem is, I can also see how it all could fall apart.

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Wednesday, April 01, 2026 - 10:33 am: Edit

Last evening, Pres. Trump opined that he may withdraw the United States from NATO. However, unilateral withdrawal from NATO by the president was foreclosed in Section 1250A of the 2024 National Defense Authorization Act:

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Quote:

(a) Opposition of Congress to Suspension, Termination, Denunciation, or Withdrawal From North Atlantic Treaty.--The President shall not suspend, terminate, denounce, or withdraw the United States from the North Atlantic Treaty, done at Washington, DC, April 4, 1949, except by and with the advice and consent of the Senate, provided that two-thirds of the Senators present concur, or pursuant to an Act of Congress.

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By Mike Erickson (Mike_Erickson) on Wednesday, April 01, 2026 - 10:58 am: Edit

True, true. On paper, there needs to be a congressional action. However, practically speaking the administration can:

* withdraw troops from certain European nations
* stop participating in exercises
* stop sharing intelligence
* stop attending NATO meetings
* stop selling parts and equipment
* announce that the CIC will not order US military forces to respond to Article 5 declarations

The President has a lot of levers to effectively wreck NATO and eliminate meaningful US participation in it while still being a "part" of it.

Note that I'm not opining on the wisdom of doing (or not doing) any or all of this, just pointing out that IMHO the 2024 NDAA language is of very limited practical effectiveness.

--Mike

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Wednesday, April 01, 2026 - 12:22 pm: Edit

Trump says a lot of things. He thinks out loud sometimes, trolls the gremlins other times, tries to misdirect the press now and then, reminds people that he has levers he can pull other times, states obvious but irrelevant facts sometimes. Hard to tell where he'll eventually land or how serious he is.

Being an engineer, I often drive people crazy with "mentioning every fact even if it is irrelevant," and pointing out that there are any number of unlikely situations. (Petrick does the same thing with his Mockingdrone Doctrine.) I could constantly mention (every time someone annoys me) that "I can just walk away any time" but I don't because I don't need to remind people of the fact or upset the horses. It's also obviously true that I could suddenly die from any number of causes but we don't need to discuss my Last Will and Testament in every conversation. Jean installed a filter to stop me from stating truths that are obvious, accurate, annoying, AND unsettling all at the same time.

When I first called Leanna, having never met her, to ask for a blind date, just about her first question was "do you smoke?" and it drove her crazy that I could not give a yes/no answer. The actual situation was....
1. I had not smoked in months, not because I was trying to quit, but because I kept forgetting to buy more.
2. I never really got hooked so I could quit any time I wanted (or forgot to buy them). I just smoked because everybody else did.
3. I was perfectly willing to agree to never smoke again as a condition of marriage and would have no trouble whatsoever keeping that promise. A real smoker would have difficulty keeping that promise.
=
But when a woman asks a key "I am deciding whether to go out with you or hang up right now" question, that woman wants a definitive honest answer, without hesitation.

Jessica has a right to be concerned.
Is Trump joking?
Is Trump serious?
Is Trump trolling?
Is Trump just stating an obvious fact that every president since Eisenhower knew without any intention of doing it because he's a "cross the t's and dot the i's" kinda guy?

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Wednesday, April 01, 2026 - 02:55 pm: Edit

Information Warfare: Starlink Becomes A Secret Weapon
April 1, 2026: A Starlink receiver and antenna on a drone allow it to be guided precisely to its target, if it's not shot down, remaining in contact until the last split second.
Russian forces in Ukraine realized that if they didn’t find a solution to this satellite constellation problem quickly, there would be higher losses from more accurate Starlink assisted Ukrainian drones.
The latest Starlink modification, in addition to the communication channel, provides alternative navigation, which, unlike GPS, has very high interference immunity.
It also has an extremely narrow communication beam, which is difficult to detect and virtually impossible to jam with conventional electronic warfare systems.
Moreover, the cost of such a terminal is miniscule compared to that of a four ton Reaper surveillance drone. The Americans can integrate it into many of their weapon’s systems, including Tomahawks, JASSMs, and the new Precision Strike Missile, which has a range of 150 kilometers and is launched from a HIMARs vehicle.
This is a revolutionary evolution in military affairs that has had an extraordinary impact on the Ukraine War. SpaceX, the firm that created and controls the Starlink satellite network, can block Russian access to their black market Starlink systems and diminish the effectiveness of Russian forces.
The Russians aren’t the only ones having misadventures with Starlink equipment. Last year Starlink was suspected of involvement in the outcome of a Red Sea conflict. Yemen’s Shia Houthi rebels had been devastated by weeks of intense Israeli and American airstrikes. These attacks continued with increasing accuracy. The Houthis couldn’t do anything about satellite or aerial surveillance, so they decided to go after nearby suspects. That meant searching for and seizing Starlink terminals owned by Yemeni families and businesses. Starlink is a simple, inexpensive system to connect anyone with thousands of Starlink communications in orbit above the earth. This gives the user access to all the electronic media in the world. Much of it is free or easily stolen. Starlink's widespread use in Yemen led the Houthis to believe it was the key means of disloyal locals to let the enemy know where Houthis weapons and other assets were.
Starlink played a small role in finding and identifying targets for airstrikes. All its satellites carry optical sensors which software, using multiple Starlink satellites, converts into VLA/Very Large Array cameras capable of picking out amazingly small details on the Earth. This is invaluable for military targeting. Seizing all the local Starlink terminals just made the locals angrier at the Houthi response and more willing to use their cellphones or other communications devices to let the outside world know where Houthi targets were.
The Houthis are a radical clan militia from the Shia minority in northern Yemen. For over a decade the Houthis had been disrupting life and the economy in Yemen. Houthi control in Yemen is diminishing because of the recent air strikes.
FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Wednesday, April 01, 2026 - 03:08 pm: Edit

Air Weapons: Ukrainian FP-5 Flamingo Missile Files Low And Unseen
March 31, 2026: Russia recently reported that three Ukrainian Flamingo drones hit targets that were nearly 2,000 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. The Flamingo drones flew near the ground and evaded all Russian radars and air defense systems. Flamingo entered service in 2025. It is a six-ton fixed-wing aircraft with a six meter wingspan and a 1.15 ton warhead. It uses a solid fuel rocket booster for launch and has a range of 3,000 kilometers. Cruise speed is 900 kilometers an hour and the missile stays in the air about three hours at max range. Navigation is GPS with INS/Inertial Navigation System backup. The GPS can be jammed while the less accurate INS cannot. It is also possible to install a terrain sensing and following system as used in American cruise missiles. A terminal homing system uses image recognition of the target. With these systems installed Flamingo would be virtually unstoppable.
Years of Ukrainian long range drone attacks on targets throughout western Russia have had a cumulative impact. It was obvious that Ukraine needed a locally produced drone that was free of any target restriction imposed by the United States on the use of long-range missiles sent to Ukraine. Ukraine is now producing its own locally designed and manufactured Flamingo drone. Production began in mid-2025 and during 2026 monthly production will eventually reach 300-500. Each drone costs about $500,000.
Ukraine has lots of experience with long-range drone attacks on targets inside Russia. Ukrainians maintain timely information on the deployment and capabilities of Russian air defense systems. Then there is BDA, or Battle Damage Assessment. This means obtaining accurate data about how effective your long range attacks are. Ukraine depends on the American surveillance satellite network and reports from Ukrainian operatives inside Russia to verify BDA, though the French have started helping too. Determining the targets of a long-range drone campaign can be tricky. For example, the World War Two American/British strategic bombing campaign against Germany made a crucial mistake. When selecting which targets to hit and when, one critical target set was omitted. The Allied target planners ignored German electrical generating plants because they incorrectly assumed that the plants were interconnected in a system that was resistant to aerial bombing attacks. After the war it was discovered that power plants were the most vulnerable targets because key components could not be easily replaced and that Germany did not have an interconnected system. Bombing a few of these plants in a region would have halted production for up to a year for much of that region. Adding power plants to the target list could have shortened the war in Europe by up to a year. The Ukrainians are still refining their target list to get the most economic damage out of each drone attack campaign.
With its extremely long range Flamingo can hit nearly 90 percent of the targets that produce weapons or export income for the Russian military effort. The Russian capital is 850 kilometers from northern Ukraine. It is 1,100 kilometers to St. Petersburg on the Baltic Sea and 2,000 kilometers to the bases of the Russian Northern Fleet in Murmansk, near the Arctic Circle.
Targets are usually industrial facilities that support the war effort. These include numerous oil refineries and oil fuel storage facilities plus facilities involving specialty steels for tube artillery, railroad car coil bearings and tanks. The drones came in low and slow to deceive Russian air defenses, which have a hard time detecting low and slow aerial targets, especially at night when most of these attacks take place. While the targets are up to three thousand kilometers from Ukraine, the drones can also move north across a corridor that is several hundred kilometers wide. Russian anti-aircraft defense systems cannot cover an area that wide and long, especially when the attackers are coming in low and slow in the dark.
Russia tries to play down the effectiveness of the Ukrainian drone attacks by describing rather obvious burning refineries and fuel storage depots as accidents. There have been a lot of such accidents and Russian troops in Ukraine have to closely monitor their fuel consumption because fuel deliveries are not as frequent and reliable as they used to be. The Russian fuel facilities also supply the commercial and civilian market. The commercial users are important because they supply the firms producing goods needed by the military as well as consumers.
The Ukrainian drone attacks also led to disruptions of flight operations at the three airports serving the Moscow region. Ukraine does not comment on details of their drone attacks. Ukraine believes the results speak for themselves. Targets in western Russia are increasingly under attack by Ukrainian drones and the Russian government has a hard time explaining why combustible targets in the region keep exploding or catching fire. Such events are contrary to the official government reports about the Russian war efforts in Ukraine. Russia has not experienced attacks like this on the homeland since World War II and that is something the Russian government does not want to discuss.
Ukrainian drone strikes have also hit Russian air bases where Russian MiG-31 fighter-bombers as well as bombers like the Tu-22M and Tu-95 are found. So far at least six of these aircraft have been damaged or destroyed by Ukrainian drone attacks deep inside Russia. The attack on the Savasleyka airbase highlights the vulnerability of military infrastructures to drone attacks. The attack drones come in low and slow at night. This made it difficult for airbase air defenses to detect and destroy many of the drones. These attacks demonstrated how much air warfare has changed because of the use of reconnaissance and attack drones by both sides.
FYEO

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Wednesday, April 01, 2026 - 05:57 pm: Edit

Some European countries were denying Trump the use of their basing for going to and from Iran.

For once I thought Trump had a point.

By Carl-Magnus Carlsson (Hardcore) on Thursday, April 02, 2026 - 01:05 am: Edit

So it seems you changed your mind?

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Thursday, April 02, 2026 - 09:06 am: Edit

Pres. Trump took to the airwaves last night in an address to the nation about the war in Iran. No new details were provided, though (1) he strongly implied that the negotiations he'd previously teased didn't pan out, inasmuch as he said that it would be another two or three of heavy strikes to bomb Iran "back to the stone age", and (2) he reiterated his previous statements that reopening the Strait of Hormuz wasn't the job of the U.S.

The address does not appear to have inspired confidence; Dow futures are down over 600 points, and West Texas Intermediate crude is at $112/barrel and climbing.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Thursday, April 02, 2026 - 10:29 am: Edit

Trump had no choice but to start the war or Iran would have had nuclear weapons. Iranian leaders and negotiators said so themselves. Now, how does he end the war? To stop now would mean doing this again every six months, not a good plan. There was no alternative, but now there seems no way out. This is the mess that twenty years of foreign policy bumbling by both parties have left us.

The last 24 hours have, on a number of personal (relatives, sigh), medical (Leanna cannot drive for months due to eye problems), business (massive repair bill on AC), and national (as noted) fronts, been very disappointing. Fifty years ago the plan was to die of cancer in 2024. Maybe I should have stuck with the plan? I had reasonably expected to see men on Mars in my lifetime, and reasonably hoped that the collapse of America (now scheduled for 2032 when a million Chinese communists register to vote in the US) would wait until I had left. Pity that won’t happen.

Ah well, stuff happens. Nobody said it would all be good.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Thursday, April 02, 2026 - 10:33 am: Edit

Gold is down $100, which doesn’t match the rise in oil. Silver is down $3. By Jessica’s sitrep, both should be jumping.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Thursday, April 02, 2026 - 01:58 pm: Edit

Air Defense: Spectacular Ukrainian Interceptor Drones
April 2, 2026: Currently, a third of Russian drones are destroyed by Ukrainian interceptor drones that cost about $4,000 each. Two-thirds of interceptions by these drones destroy their targets. Ukraine produced 100,000 interceptor drones in 2025 and expects to produce nearly a million of these drones this year. Frontline units received an average of over 1,500 interceptor drones per day in December and January. In one recent month Interceptor drones flew 6,300 sorties and destroyed more than 1,500 Russian drones. Ukraine is building a fifteen kilometers deep drone live along its 1,100 kilometer long front line.
This is nothing new as Ukraine developed a drone that could intercept and destroy other drones two years ago. This was achieved using FPV\First Person Viewing operated drones to detect the enemy drone and destroy it by colliding with it. While the first FPV drones were quadcopters, the interceptor drones are faster fixed wing models that look like remotely controlled model aircraft. The soldier operating the FPV was a kilometer or more away and used FPV goggles to see what the day/night video camera on the drone could see. Adding night vision doubles the cost for each drone, so not all of them have that capability. Each of these drones carries half a kilogram of explosives, so it could instantly turn the drone into a flying bomb that could fly into a target and detonate. This was an awesome and debilitating weapon when used in large numbers over the combat zone.
The interceptor drones are used to take down Russian reconnaissance and surveillance drones that locate targets for Russian artillery and for air strikes by manned aircraft or explosives equipped FPV drones that could go after a moving target. Unlike manned aircraft, drones are smaller and slower with top speeds of 100 to 150 kilometers an hour, and only operate at low altitudes under 1,600 meters. Note that these drones are still unable to catch helicopters, which they could damage. Fixed wing aircraft, like jet fighters, are another matter as they rarely fly low enough for the drones to reach, much less hit such a fast moving aircraft. The Ukrainians have been able to incorporate the new interceptor drone capability into their air defense systems, which means the air defense radars and fire control systems recognize drones large enough and metallic drones to show up on radar. Modern aircraft tracking radars are not designed to detect, much less track, small slow and low flying drones.
The Russian solution to this Ukrainian interference was to send more surveillance drones accompanied by attack drones as a way to overwhelm the Ukrainian air defense system. Sometimes this works, for a while, but the Ukrainians are generally faster to improvise and modify systems that don’t work until they do. Russian forces rely more on massive use of whatever they have. This sometimes works because, as the Russians like to point out, quantity has a quality all its own. That worked until it didn’t as the Ukrainians found ways to quickly overwhelm Russian defensive measures and destroy more of their artillery target spotting and reconnaissance drones in several areas. If the Ukrainians could continue to manufacture lots of these interceptor drones that simply collide with their targets, the Russians are in big trouble because Ukrainian artillery could operate more freely and effectively and suffer lower losses.
So far, the Ukrainians have not demonstrated they can mass produce enough of these attack drones to become a major problem for the Russians. Ukraine does have access to large manufacturing facilities in NATO countries. The problem was whether or not NATO countries move quickly enough to provide more manufacturing for new drone designs Ukraine needs. The Ukrainians have become accustomed to innovating and then manufacturing new drones quickly. Manufacturers in the United States, Europe, and Russia are not accustomed to going that way. They might be if, like Ukraine, they were fighting for survival.
FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Thursday, April 02, 2026 - 01:58 pm: Edit

Morale: Americans Abandon Syrian Kurds
April 2, 2026: The United States has abandoned its Kurdish allies in Syria. The Americans have agreed to let the new Syrian government assume control. Earlier this year Syria’s new leader Ahmad al-Sharaa forced the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces/SDF out of their territory in northeast Syria and is regaining control over the oil fields and natural gas extraction facilities in Deir ez-Zor and Al-Raqqah provinces. These are expected to be back in production by the end of the year. To complete the repairs and upgrades to the oil and gas facilities will require foreign investment. There must be assurances that the country will remain peaceful to keep the foreign investments coming.
Ahmad al-Sharaa is rebuilding the Syrian armed forces. He believes the key factor is obtaining men who are good Moslems, literate, physically fit, and unquestionably loyal to him. Initially that means only Sunni Moslems who had not served in the Assad military were eligible. There were some other restrictions, like not being able to smoke while on duty. Another aspect of recruit training is the weeklong refresher course on Islam. Al-Sharaa believes the religious indoctrination will ensure that all recruits completing basic training will be loyal. Only 600 of the first batch of 1,400 recruits completed the training. The Shia minority, especially the Alawites, and the Kurds are not eligible for military service. The Assads, who ruled Syria for over sixty years, were Alawite. The Kurds have their own American-backed army and control about a third of Syria. If al-Sharaa wants to control all of Syria, he will have to make a deal with the Kurds. He has already made peace with the United States and all of Syria’s neighbors, including Israel. Al-Sharaa is creating new armed forces that will hopefully defend Syria and help maintain order within Syria if necessary. With that degree of internal security, foreign investors will return to help rebuild the economy.
Last year Ahmad al-Sharaa became the first Syrian leader to visit America. He met with the U.S. president and discussed the future of Syrian American relations. Sharaa discussed U.S.-Syrian cooperation suppressing ISIS Islamic terrorists. Sharaa seeks to make peace with all his neighbors. Relations with Russia were resumed, along with plans to restore Russian use of bases at Hmeimim and Tartus. Trade agreements with Russia were restored and Russia is resuming previous trade and business relationships and contracts.
Because of damaged power stations, Syria has frequent rolling blackouts. A drought reduced food production and Russia resumed food exports to Syria. Considering Ahmad al-Sharaa’s efforts, the U.S. Britain and most other Western nations removed their designation of Ahmad al-Sharaa as an Islamic terrorist.
Ahmad al-Sahara took control of Syria in late 2024 as the Assad government of Syria was driven into Russian exile by an eleven-day offensive organized by Islamic terrorists belonging to Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham/HTS and led by Ahmad al Sharaa. Turkey and Ukrainian special forces helped. This was an unexpected combination that no one inside or outside Syria saw coming.
The Assads had ruled Syria since 1970 and seemed firmly in control until they weren’t. Thirteen years of war were a factor. Heavy losses among Alawite soldiers who were the backbone of the Assad military was another factor. The Alawites realized that the wars were never going to end unless Assad had no troops to do the fighting. HTS/Hayat Tahrir al-Sham leaders realized this and expected the Alawite troops to stand aside. They did and HTS had its eleven-day conquest of Syria.
HTS does not control the entire country and neither did the Assads. About 40 percent of Syria is controlled by Kurds, who had American support in an U.S. effort to destroy or greatly diminish Islamic terrorist groups in Syria. There were some American troops working with the Kurds and that helped keep the Assads and HTS out of the Kurdish region.
HTS faces its most difficult task in establishing a new government in Syria. There were still several minorities to deal with, including the Kurds and Alawites. HTS had one chance to approach these many minorities with a peace deal and assurances that minorities and their interests would be part of the new government.
The peace and government reorganization was threatened by some HTS leaders who supported Islamic Sharia government or another kleptocracy like the one that made the Assads rich. When the Assads left Syria, most of their $5 billion dollar fortune was stashed in various foreign bank accounts. The Assads may have to give some of that cash to Russia because the HTS government is offering the Russians renewed access to their Khmeimim air base and Tartus naval base in western Syria. There are still a few Russian soldiers at those bases, mainly to prevent looters from trashing the facilities.
In the end, the most difficult task for HTS is to establish a new government and get the economy going. The United States, Britain and Germany negotiated with HTS to establish diplomatic relations and resume foreign aid deliveries.
HTS has a limited number of trusted Syrian officials and needs a lot more to establish a national government loyal to HTS and somewhat resistant to the Middle Eastern culture of corruption. Each minority in Syria wants a fair allocation of government jobs for its people. That is thousands of jobs to deal with. HTS left many current incumbents in their jobs and hoped these men and women would not become a problem.
HTS leaders had little experience running a national government, but many worked in the HTS government that, for over a decade, ruled most of Idlib Province in northwestern Syria. In Syria as a whole there were many different power structures. For example, in Kurdish Syria there is a Kurdish government, but the real power resides with a few Kurdish militia leaders. There are similar situations in other parts of Syria. HTS had to adapt to this rather than trying to eliminate governmental systems that worked for decades. No government was the worst situation and HTS sought to ensure that there was some kind of functioning government throughout Syria. Otherwise HTS was not controlling the country but pretending to.

FYEO

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Thursday, April 02, 2026 - 03:07 pm: Edit

Re: falling gold & silver prices: bullion and oil have shown a negative relationship during the Iran war. When oil rises, inflation concerns increase. Higher inflation reduces expectations of interest rate cuts.

When markets expect interest rates to stay high, bullion becomes less attractive. Bullion does not pay interest or yield. Investors prefer assets that provide returns when rates are high.

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Thursday, April 02, 2026 - 04:38 pm: Edit

Carl --

I take separate questions separately. I am annoyed at Trump's continual denigration of Europe.

But in this particular instance, European countries were denying him basing going to/from Iran, and also demanding that he reopen the Straits of Hormuz. I felt it was reasonable for Trump to be annoyed by that.

I don't see any contradiction.

By Carl-Magnus Carlsson (Hardcore) on Thursday, April 02, 2026 - 05:30 pm: Edit

William, I see. Note however that if the viewpoint is that the closure of the straits is a direct consequence of the US attack on Iran, then it's different. The quickest way to normalizations would then be that the US pull out.

Also it is clear Trump won't quit until he has won, which is unlikely. Any aid would therefore not only prolong the war but be a wasted effort.

By Carl-Magnus Carlsson (Hardcore) on Thursday, April 02, 2026 - 05:54 pm: Edit

SVC, "No choice"? After the successful attack ten months ago the current administration would have less reasons to worry than probably any administration since Iran begun it's program. Kristi Noem's report to the Senate hearing was crystal clear. Iran's nuclear program had been "obliterated" and work on it had not resumed.
Trump could not have been ignorant of that assessment from the US intelligence agencies.

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Thursday, April 02, 2026 - 05:57 pm: Edit

Sky news (Australia) announced today that Australia will join the U.K., France and other European nations to occupy Hormuz Strait “after the fighting ends”.

A Google inquiry revealed:

Quote:” European nations and Australia are planning a naval mission to secure and escort shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, not to militarily occupy it. This coalition, led by the UK and France, intends to deploy frigates to escort oil tankers and provide air defense against Iranian threats, but only after the current conflict ends.
The New York Times
The New York Times
+2
Key details:
Post-War Focus: Operations are planned for when the war in Iran ends.
Nature of Action: The effort aims to ensure safe passage for commercial shipping and prevent a blockade of oil supplies, which are crucial to global energy security.
International Coalition: More than 30 countries are involved in the planning, with participation from the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Canada, and Japan.
Opposition to Immediate Involvement: European leaders had initially rejected immediate involvement in military activities against Iran, refusing to join the US-led effort during the active conflict.”

The only source that I can find substantiating the opposition to immediate involvement comment is from Al Jazeera, which is not a reliable source.

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Thursday, April 02, 2026 - 06:41 pm: Edit

Carl,

You seem to be promoting an attitude of "we can't succeed, therefore it's best not to help." This is defeatist thinking, and I have no time for it. It is also the same attitude that some have used to justify not helping Ukraine. I don't have time for it there either.

By Ted Fay (Catwhoeatsphoto) on Thursday, April 02, 2026 - 07:06 pm: Edit

Not to mention, we've been tolerating Iran's state-sponsored terrorism for decades now. I say enough is enough - you want to play the terrorist game to hurt us and our close allies, we end your government.

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Quote:

The quickest way to normalizations would then be that the US pull out.

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Quote:

Also it is clear Trump won't quit until he has won, which is unlikely. Any aid would therefore not only prolong the war but be a wasted effort.

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By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Thursday, April 02, 2026 - 07:06 pm: Edit

Carl, time passes, progress happens, new things move forward. Iran flatly told the US that it had enough enriched uranium to make half a dozen nuclear bombs, that it had every intention to do so, and that any deal with the US would have to include Iran's right to nuclear weapons. US intelligence confirmed this to be the case. You are selecting the data you like to prove your case and just making yourself look dishonest.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Thursday, April 02, 2026 - 09:11 pm: Edit

Remember that Iran declared its war goals included sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz and the right to charge transit fees to Kuwait, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the various gulf states.