Too bad my stepson had one of those. Would set it up on top of the shed. Great field of fire that way. Took out half the boy scout troop before they found where he was. The thing was battery operated as well.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Saturday, April 04, 2026 - 10:16 pm: Edit

Trump says a joint US-Israel operation today killed 50 Iranian leaders. Israel said "huh?"

Israeli jets have destroyed 70% of the Iranian steel industry and are starting to bomb the Iranian oil industry.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Sunday, April 05, 2026 - 12:07 am: Edit

The WSO has been rescued. Complex mission, lots of firepower. Rescue teams safely out.

By Ryan Opel (Ryan) on Sunday, April 05, 2026 - 12:12 am: Edit

I think he meant we've killed 50 Iranian leaders.

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Sunday, April 05, 2026 - 12:13 am: Edit

Just a guess, but since President Trump talked about not bombing the Iranian power grid and generating stations, its not a wholly unreasonable assumption that other civilian targets might be safe.

Pity no one told the Israeli Air Force.

I think the term serendipity applies:

Israel, just going about the business of bombing Iran back to Stone Age technology levels, just “Happened” to hit an Oil industry target, that the Iranian remaining political leaders (may they rest in pieces) thought was safe.

Boy were they wrong.

By Jeff Anderson (Jga) on Sunday, April 05, 2026 - 02:04 pm: Edit

Industrial plants responsible for making drones and missiles?

Chemical plants responsible for fuel for drones and missiles (assuming they don't use ordinary commercial grade fuels)?

Could those be on US target lists?

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Sunday, April 05, 2026 - 02:10 pm: Edit

The recovered WSO was rescued. He was a colonel, and was seriously injured. He landed, hid his parachute as best he could, and climbed a ridge before finding a place to hide. He was located and drones circled around, dropping missiles on search parties that got within three kilometers. His rescue radio used short compressed bursts of data to report his status. Central Command organized a major rescue to get him. A10s and AC130s provided cover. A ground team landed to find him and move him to a pick up zone which was some kind of Iranian airfield. The IRGC noted the activity and told everyone to head that way. A major battle erupted but the US air support was decisive, shooting up ground troops and destroying artillery sites. An OH6 was shot down but the crew was picked up. At the landing site, two MC130J aircraft landed but their wheels got stuck so the troops destroyed the aircraft. Backup aircraft landed and extracted everyone.

This info is combined from several sources and no doubt some details will be clarified later.

Iranian casualties are not known but could be dozens or even a hundred or two.

It may seem ridiculous to lose three aircraft and endanger a hundred or more US troops to rescue one man, but as I told my troops when we conducted a pilot rescue exercise, “it’s not about this time, it’s about the next one. If we let his guy die or get captured, nobody will want to fly any combat missions again.”

By Mike Grafton (Mike_Grafton) on Sunday, April 05, 2026 - 03:16 pm: Edit

Iranian Oil production and refining lead to income to support terrorism.

Plenty justified bombing targets IMHO.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Sunday, April 05, 2026 - 04:54 pm: Edit

There is that “disruption of the world market” thing…

Which would go away if Iran got a new government.

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Sunday, April 05, 2026 - 07:20 pm: Edit

That “disruption of the world market” thing is something of paper tiger…

Prior to the start of hostilities, the U.S. imported less than 2% of the world market supply of Oil. Europe less than 10% of the same World market supply. Asia and pacific island nations (including China and India) mostly shared the remaining 88%.

Sources disagree, but it is commonly accepted that China imports 90% of its oil, with the Persian Gulf oil representing 80% of the total imports.

With Iran, Venezuela, and Russian oil either off line or sanctioned, China has been forced to buy the oil that it needs from “Reputable” providers, who charge full value for the oil, unlike Russia, Iran and Venezuela who were discounting their oil prices far below the world spot price of oil.

One could make the case that for the first time in years, the world spot price is reflecting what the spot price should have been for years.

The other issue, is given that China is consuming the lions share of oil, should be the nation to occupy the straits of Hormuz… but given the abysmal performance of China’s military capability in Multiple client nations, any attempt to project military force far outside the borders of China is probably doomed to fail.

The PLAN ships are even less able to perform any sort of operation in the Persian Gulf given the news reports of three different nuclear powered submarines sinking at the fitting out docks over the last eighteen months, a conventional powered submarine that suffered a mechanical breakdown during on of the war drills off the coast of Taiwan (and had to be towed back to. Base…) and not one of the three aircraft carriers that China has put into service has managed to travel any further than Singapore, nor have any of the three shown the ability to launch more than one aircraft at a time.

Europe may not be in any better shape to put a task force together to operate in the Persian Gulf.

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Sunday, April 05, 2026 - 07:40 pm: Edit

As a reminder to all, the problem with the Strait of Hormuz being more or less closed* isn't just oil.

Fertilizer is an issue. Between 15% and 20% of fertilizer used in the U.S. is imported from Saudi Arabia, and right now none of that is getting through. The result is a projected 2-million-ton shortage for spring planting. Pull up any of the farm news sites, and you'll see that crops that should have been planted by now haven't been in all too many places.

Then there's helium. Over 30% is normally shipped through the Strait. Everything from MRI machines to semiconductor manufacturing to arc welding uses it. There was already a shortage; the current issue with s Strait has only made it worse.

* Note: I said "more or less closed". Iran has managed to turn this into a money-maker, by negotiating with other countries on a ship-by-ship basis, charging a fee to provide those ships with a radio code to use. When they use it, an Iranian escort boat comes out and escorts them into and through waters on the Iranian side of the Strait.

By Dana Madsen (Madman) on Sunday, April 05, 2026 - 10:02 pm: Edit

Jeff, the paper tiger has real fangs. WTI Oil has moved from about $58/bbl in Jan/Feb 2025, to $112 currently. With a jump of $12 since Pres. Trumps speech last week. Average US gas prices are up a third from about $3 to just over $4. As well, the oil futures charts are up across the curves, not as much, but Dec 2026 delivery is now pricing 20% higher (from high $50s into low $70s). So even if this is solved tomorrow, gas prices won't drop back to $3 immediately. Steve mentioned a week or two back that some customers are still receiving oil deliveries at low prices they locked in 6 months ago, but the converse is true, some companies are now locking in higher prices for deliveries through the year. Every week this continues the prices locked in are going to get higher.

There is now signs of demand destruction going on in Asia. I've seen reports of mines in Australia shutting down ops, whether because they can't get fuel, or it's not efficient to mine with increased OpEx and Philippines and others are reducing fuel. There are forecasts of it starting very soon in Europe (and maybe California as they are going to have the same trouble getting gas as others dependent on tankers). Not sure exactly when, and believe the forecast you want, but I think credible people tracking the oil market feel the oil rate will hit $175 to $200 per bbl over the next 6 to 10 weeks at which point enough demand will be destroyed to put the market into balance. Estimate for US gas prices at $175 would be $6 to $7 a gallon (rule of thumb every $10/bbl is $0.3 / gallon).

Whether it hits the above numbers also depends on how much gets out. Bloomberg ship tracker says the most ships to get through the strait during the last 5 weeks was in the last couple days, although still very low. They state every ship going through is following the approved Iranian path, and suggestion is they are paying about $2 million per ship to Iran in Chinese Yuan or about $1/bbl transit tax.

China needs oil, no question there, from major importing countries though they are probably best positioned to handle 6 months to one year disruptions. They have the biggest strategic stockpile, and they have stopped shipping any refined products out of their country (Chinese refiners supplied a lot of gas/diesel to neighboring Asian countries).

Anyways, if this continues much longer, world economy is going to get hit, gdp growth is going to drop and inflation is going up. Yes, there are a lot of countries who are going to get hit worse, some not as bad, a minor few might even come out marginally ahead.

All of Jessica's other points on Fertilizer, Helium, plus Aluminum are going to feed into inflation over the next 6 months to 18 months. $6 to $7 gas plus increased inflation will more than wipe out any savings the avg US family could have seen from the tax cut bill last year.

It appears now that contrary to statements 4 weeks ago, the US navy will not be escorting any ships through the strait any time soon. It appears that the only navy that is escorting ships through the strait is the Iranian.

I agreed with Steve 4 weeks ago that the world had enough stockpiles to get through 4 to 6 weeks of this without major issues. Well, it's not solved, and I think that time is running out.

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Sunday, April 05, 2026 - 10:44 pm: Edit

Dana Madsen:

I actually said “Something of…” NOT was.

The United States is now a net exporter of oil, not dependent on Foreign oil from the Persian Gulf.

High oil prices actually benefit American Oil Producers, and further more, offset America’s traditional trade deficit.

Australia is dependent on Oil imports, in spite of being an exporter of Coal. It is the main reason Australia has signed on for the Operation to occupy the Straits of Hormuz after the fighting.

Yes, the world economy is going to take a hit, would have been smaller had the European Union stepped up at the beginning of this current crisis, but I suspect President Trump is not wrong about certain European nations wanting to hit back at POTUS, rather than solve their own oil dependence issues.

Lots of people (a number of them economists) have been predicting hyper inflation since before the 2024 November Elections, perhaps this time they are correct.

I suggest, respectively, that we wait and see how it plays out, before hitting the panic button.

I do not always agree with the Current President, but he has been generally good on economic issues in both his first term and his first year in this term.

A lot of the naysayers are terminal TDS victims. This might be a “Broken Clock” scenario, or if it gets resolved sooner rather than later, could be a hiccup, rather than the death of Western Civilization.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Sunday, April 05, 2026 - 11:39 pm: Edit

When one chunk of the world oil supply goes off line, what do you think the countries who used that chunk are going to do? Jeff seems to think that China would just shrug and accept the shut down of their economy. No way. They will start bidding for other chunks of the world market. More bidders means every country pays more, and every country has to get by with a bit less. Every country’s economy gets a bit of a hit.

Then again, the spot price is the easiest thing to check, but applies to only three or four percent of the oil. Most oil is locked into long term contracts, but some of those contracts expire and get renewed every week. Those renewals are going to cost more, not the spot price which the market knows will go back down by summer. Of course you can go broke guessing next summer’s oil price.

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Monday, April 06, 2026 - 06:14 am: Edit

The U.S.S.R. Collapsed after 70 years of Communism (mismanagement, corruption and incompetence). The Chinese Communists tried to “Reform” their economy, but under the current regime, has largely failed for many of the same reasons (mismanagement, corruption and incompetent government). The Chinese Communists have had their 70 some years (1949-2019).

An argument can be made that what we are seeing IS the shut down of the Chinese economy.

Time will tell.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, April 06, 2026 - 12:51 pm: Edit

WSO rescue, bits and pieces

The first rescue was aborted, the next night the second attempt succeeded.

Four B1 bombers dropped over a hundred 2000 pound bombs to protect the pilot and rescue. This meant some scheduled targets were not hit and more missiles were launched at Israel and other countries.

The colonel found a crevice in the rocks on top of the ridge to hide in but this delayed tracking his beacon.

Trump personally ordered the rescue, the mission being so dangerous and risky. There was a real chance that dozens of US troops would be killed or captured.

The CIA convinced Iran that spies had already found the pilot and were smuggling him to a fishing boat for his escape.

The US crows that no one else could have done this, a claim that cannot be proven or refuted.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, April 06, 2026 - 12:54 pm: Edit

The pilot confirmed his identity and that he was not captured by stating “God is good,” something he said often in conversation over previous years.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, April 06, 2026 - 01:02 pm: Edit

The US will destroy bridges and power plants on Tuesday if a peace deal is not reached.

Pakistan has negotiated a draft peace deal including a ceasefire, opening the strait, and a comprehensive deal. Trump has not yet accepted it. Details are unknown.

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Monday, April 06, 2026 - 05:37 pm: Edit

One follow up on the state of the Chinese Government:

Quite:” In 2025 and 2026, the Chinese government is managing short-term revenue shortfalls—driven by a prolonged property downturn, weak domestic consumption, and falling tax receipts—primarily through massively increased central government borrowing, targeted debt-swap programs for local governments, and proactive fiscal spending.
Rhodium Group
Rhodium Group
+1
The overall strategy involves shifting the debt burden from local governments to the central government, which has more fiscal space, while avoiding a 2009-style, large-scale stimulus in favor of "targeted" support for high-tech manufacturing and consumer trade-in programs.
The New York Times
The New York Times
+4
Key Mitigation Strategies (2025–2026):
Massive Debt Swaps and Refinancing: Beijing is implementing a multi-year, multi-trillion yuan program (starting in late 2024 through 2026) to help local governments swap "hidden debt" (LGFV debt) for official, lower-interest bonds. In 2025, a significant portion of this included special debt quota allocation to help local governments manage debt risks.
Expansionary Fiscal Policy: The government has kept its official deficit-to-GDP target at a record high of 4% for both 2025 and 2026, with an estimated broad deficit reaching 9.0–9.9% of GDP, indicating that the government is running its most expansionary fiscal policy in years.
Issuance of Special Ultra-Long Treasury Bonds: To fund projects without adding to the annual deficit, the central government is issuing special long-term bonds (e.g., 1.3 trillion yuan planned for 2026) to support national strategies, technology upgrades, and infrastructure.
"Cash-for-Clunkers" and Consumption Subsidies: The government is issuing billions in bonds for consumer trade-in programs (e.g., 250–300 billion yuan in 2025–2026) to boost the automotive and home appliance sectors to counter weak demand.
Stabilizing Property Market and Local Finances: With land sale revenues (a major local income source) falling sharply, the central government is using city-specific policies to reduce unsold properties and, in some cases, providing liquidity to local governments to clear debt with private suppliers.
Monetary Easing to Complement Fiscal Measures: The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is expected to cut policy rates and reserve requirements incrementally to support this borrowing, though acting cautiously to manage capital outflows.
China Banking News
China Banking News
+11
Structural Realities:
Despite these actions, revenue weakness is expected to persist in 2026, with local government finances remaining under severe pressure due to the ongoing property crisis, which has led to falling taxes. Analysts suggest that this "extends and pretends" strategy—propping up local debt with central credit—is an attempt to buy time for rebalancing the economy, though it does not resolve the underlying structural decline in tax revenue.”

The source of the first part, is the New York Times. Some portion of the balance appears to be AI, so there may be error.

The final part of the answer is materially the same program Former President Obama used (on advice from then Vice President Biden) to deal with the 2008 banking crisis.

Opinions are mixed as to just how effective the measures taken then, actually were. The U.S. economy, has shown great capacity to withstand difficult economic conditions, how well the measures now being taken in China will work, in great part will depend on the ability of the Chinese Economy to recover.

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Monday, April 06, 2026 - 08:01 pm: Edit

Pres. Trump today proposed a scheme wherein the United States would charge tolls for use of the Strait of Hormuz.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, April 06, 2026 - 09:17 pm: Edit

I think Trump should charge Iran's IRGC $100 million per day to stay in power.

By Dana Madsen (Madman) on Monday, April 06, 2026 - 11:00 pm: Edit

well, if they allow the straight to open back up to 100+ ships a day, and they charge $2 million per ship, that would be $200 million to Iran daily and they could split it with the US at $100 million each.

Now, would the other gulf nations pay that, and does anyone want Iran to make an extra $36.5 billion a year.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, April 06, 2026 - 11:14 pm: Edit

I don’t think there is any chance in Hades that Iran will be charging tolls, not just for the reasons Dana noted. For one thing, even if it would happen, it would legally have to be a joint Iran-Oman enterprise.

By A David Merritt (Adm) on Monday, April 06, 2026 - 11:24 pm: Edit

As I understand it, they are currently charging fees to guide ships through a "safe" passage now.

By Jeff Anderson (Jga) on Monday, April 06, 2026 - 11:35 pm: Edit

It's at times like this that I wish I could actually DO stuff with compooters, BUT...

There's a YouTube channel, "Chief MAKOi," that's hosted by the Chief Engineer aboard a Bulk Cargo hauler. He's got a good, calm, relaxed style as he factually talks about life as the chief engineer and the things that occur in shipping on the High Seas.

I know I've brought him up before, but in this case, I wanted to bring up a couple specific videos he did where he talks about the amount charged to go through the Panama and Suez Canals. He does a quick estimated charge for them (something relevant to this discussion, regarding the Strait of Hormuz) AND the economics behind the fees that're charged, that might serve as an estimator for charges in THIS case.

There's also another video where he talks about piracy, where it's common, and measures taken by shipping companies to protect their investments, ranging from special insurance policies to actually having armed guards aboard ships.

Again, I wish I could just link videos, instead of providing these vague search instructions, but if you're interested in what a REAL expert has to say on these subjects, IMO, you'd be hard pressed to find anyone better.